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| The destroyed Spencer Dam in Nebraska after epic flooding in March. A massive storm producing a blizzard and areas of heavy rain will make ongoing flooding worse in the northern and central Plains starting this week and continuing at least into next week, and probably beyond that. |
A broad area in the western half of Nebraska, extending diagonally through central South Dakota into western Minnesota is under a blizzard warning as forecasts call for up to two feet of snow and winds gusting to 50 mph.
On the southeast edge of this massive storm, mixed snow and rain, or just plain rain.
A broad area encompassing most of South Dakota, the northern half of Nebraska, and large parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota are going to get two to as much as four inches of rain, or the equivalent of that in snow.
In places that do get a lot of snow, it will start melting rapidly when the sun comes back out this weekend. That's true even if temperatures stay below normal behind the storm. "Below normal" in mid-April is still well above freezing during the day, and the strong April snow will eat into the snow pack.
Many rivers in this region are still in moderate to major flood stage from the big storm in mid-March and the ongoing snow melt over the past three weeks. This includes parts of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.
In the southeastern part of the storm zone, where there will be more rain than snow, the flood impacts will be almost immediate by Thursday. Then, next week, water from melting snow will move downstream, worsening flooding along the James, Big Sioux, Little Sioux and other midsized rivers. That water will find its way into the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.
Even farmland that doesn't flood is in deep trouble. It's too wet to get equipment into the fields and spring progresses, and this will make the fields even soggier. And keep them wet much further into spring.
The flooding over the past month has caused well over $1 billion in damage and farm losses. This will make the situation much, much worse.
Long range forecasts also call for generally above normal precipitation across the middle of the nation for the rest of the month.
SEVERE WEATHER
As mentioned yesterday, a casual glance at how the storm will look on weather maps suggests a major tornado outbreak. This is not to be.
The storm will cause severe weather and probably a few tornadoes here and there, but the atmosphere isn't quite coming together for major tornadoes, which is obviously a good thing. A small area of northern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska is under the gun for large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two tomorrow.
On Thursday, the hail, wind and isolated tornado threat shifts to Illinois and Indiana. But again, there's always severe weather in April. This aspect of this giant storm will not be the historic part.
However the storm's cold front will hang up near the Gulf Coast and a new storm system will form along it. This new storm won't be nearly as intense as the one in the Plains tomorrow and Thursday.
However, this new, second storm has the potential to unleash quite a few tornadoes in parts of the Southeast. It's surely not definite yet, but it's something to watch.
That second storm could spell real trouble for us in Vermont, too. The first storm, the one unleashing the blizzard in the Plains, will send a cold front through New England later Friday with showers, but nothing extreme. Just the usual April showers.
But that second storm has the potential to dump a late season snowstorm on Vermont. Of course, the track and intensity of this storm is wicked uncertain right now. Even if it were to score a major hit on us, temperatures will be on the borderline between rain and snow.
Just keep in mind, there's the chance - JUST the chance - that we might get one last nasty winter blast. Stay tuned on that one.
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