"Potential" Tropical Storm Is Really Being Hyped

Just one of many potential tracks for Wannabe Isias.  Expect
forecasts to shift around a lot in the coming days.

If I were to believe some media and social media posts, I'd thing a Category 999 hurricane was about to blow Florida out of existence.

Before we got on with this post, some facts to clear up.

I hope you understand that I know that hurricanes only go up to Category 5; there's no such thing a "Category 999."

Category 5 is the worst hurricane you can get.  There is currently no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.   In fact, there are no hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

It's possible a tropical system of some sort could affect Florida over the weekend, but we don't know for sure if that will happen, and if it does, how big a deal it would be.

So here's the non-hype version, as best as I understand it.  If you want more information beyone what I'm about to describe, check out what real live scientists are saying over at the National Hurricane Center. 

The hype you're hearing is prompted by something called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine." As of this morning, it was causing really crappy weather way out there in the Lesser Antilles, and will probably do the same to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

They haven't given "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" a name yet because it hasn't developed a well defined circulation.  It's just a mass of gusty thunderstorms that overall have some spin, but haven't congealed into a storm yet. But as of early this morning, it was getting close to that level.

When it does (or even if) it gets its act together, it will be named Isaias.  If you're curious, it's pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

As you're probably sick of hearing from me by now, forecasting the strength of direction of any tropical system can get tricky.

It's especially so with Wannabe Isaias.  It's a huge clump of thunderstorms, and where a center eventually forms will determine its path and strength.  Right now, even the folks at National Hurricane Center are throwing up their hands a bit with this one.

But they're giving it a try, because that's what they do.

If Wannabe Isaias gets it act together today, it might get punched down to a wannabe again if it hits the Dominican Republic directly.  The mountains there will screw it up.

If Wannabe Isaias detours around that mountainous island, it could keep getting stronger.

This is where the Florida hype comes in. Wannabe Isaias  could  cause trouble in places like Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island, maybe Cuba or the Bahamas.

Forecasts tracks as of this morning take this thing toward Florida, but remember what I just said: Where the center of Wannabe Isaias eventually establishes itself will determine a lot about its future path.

It could pass south of Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico.  Maybe it will hit Florida. Or it'll curve north and then east and miss the United States entirely.  Note to Donald Trump: We don't know if Wannabe Isaias will affect Alabama. 

We just don't know any of this for certain yet.  Don't believe anyone who tells you they know for sure where this is going. They don't. At least not yet.  And don't even get me started with questions on whether Wannabe Isaias will affect Vermont and if it does, how so?  Use your Magic 8 ball for that one.

As mentioned above, we also don't know what kind of strength or lack thereof Wannabe Isaias will have.

So here's what you SHOULD do regarding Wannabe Isaias:

1. Continue monitoring the storm, especially if you live in or have interests in the Virgin Islands, Hait, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida.  No need for any kind of panic, by the way.

2. It's early in the hurricane season.  If you live in hurricane prone areas, or flood prone areas, now is a great time to pop down to Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever to pick up your hurricane preparedness supplies. This is whether or not Wannabe Isaias amounts to anything. Wear your mask  into the stores, please!

3. Have a plan in case Wannabe Isaias or any other tropical storm or hurricane comes along.  If told to evacuate, where would you go?  Make it easy to grab important documents and medications and such if you have to go.  Think about what you would do with pets.  Add in some extra planning because of this Covid pandemic.

4.  If this thing does get close to you and the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers start barking orders, like prepare or even evacuate, do what they say. It'll make it easier on everyone. Including yourselves.

The South Moves North Once Again

An outflow boundary from a thunderstorm passing by to the north
helped create thes turbulent looking clouds over St. Albans,
Vermont yesterday.  The boundary produced wind gusts close
to 30 mph at my house, but they oddly weren't cool winds like
you'd expect from normal thunderstorm outflow. 

The Northeast had a terribly Florida type of day Monday, with temperatures in the 90s, humidity levels through the roof, and a few strong storms to boot.

Maine was downright weird. You know Maine in the summer, right?  Cool breezes, comfortable humidity, great sleeping nights, manageable summer rain showers? frigid ocean waters?

Not yesterday.  The waters in the Gulf of Maine are practically bathwater, setting records for high ocean temperatures.  That means marine life is heading north to enjoy those warm waters. That includes sharks.

Tragically, a woman was killed in a shark attack near Bailey Island Maine on Monday.

Those warm waters along the coast of New England are also bad if a stray hurricane comes along later this summer and autumn.  Northboumd hurricanes along the coast weaken because they don't do well in cold water. The warmer the water, the slower a hurricane will weaken, making one that comes along stronger than they otherwise would be if the water was chillier.

Meanwhile, in Portland, Maine, the low temperature Monday was 78 degrees. That is the warmest "low" temperature on record for any date in Portland.

Additionally, a possible tornado hit parts of Somerset and Penobscot Counties in Maine.  Radar images showed some pretty tight rotation in a severe thunderstorm, plus there was tree and wire damage in the area.

The National Weather Service will investigate to see if that was really a tornado.

For those who are easily worried and confused, the possible tornado hit the town of St. Albans, Maine, NOT St. Albans, Vermont, where I live.

The heat was on elsewhere in the Northeast.  It was 97 degrees in Scranton, Pennsylvania, the hottest it's been there in four years.  Hartford, Connecticut got up to 98 degrees.

Ahead of a weak cold front, heat advisories are up along the East Coast today from southwestern Maine to South Carolina.

Here in Vermont, it got up to 93 degrees in Burlington, the 17th day this year it has been in the 90s.  We're still in the running for the most consective days staying continuously above 60 degrees. The wild cards are how warm it stays at night in the second half of the week and into Saturday.

Current forecasts have Burlington's lows just above 60 degrees each night, so we could do it.

Showers and thunderstorms were concentrated across northern Vermont yesterday and last evening, and southern Vermont stayed dry.  However, a decent batch of rain was moving through central and southern Vermont this morning.

Today will be another relatively hot one, with highs in the 80s to around 90 in a few spots. At least the humidity will briefly go down this afternoon.

The humidity will spike up again tomorrow ahead of the next system, but that won't last long.  There could be a few more showers and storms tomorrow, too.

Which is fine. Last evening, a brief heavy downpour passed through St. Albans, Vermont. The rain was almost as warm as bath water. There was no lightning, so it felt safe to stand out in the rain and let it drench me. It felt awesome.

I joke that the rain did wonders for my naturally curly hair.  The joys of summer, I guess.

A Welcome Rinse, And Then A Hot Repeat ThIs Afternoon

I awoke to the delicious sound this morning of rain drumming on the roof of my St. Albans, Vermont house.

The weather deck of our place in St. Albans, Vermont was tropical
humid and wet this morning after some welcome showers.
More heat, humidity the rest of the day, into tomorrow, I'm afraid. 

I've been constantly whining about too-dry weather in Vermont since May, so this nice round of downpours will shut me up for a little while.

I'll still cry about the hot weather - more on that in a minute - but this was one of the better rains of the summer.  

That's not saying much, but I'll take it.

The showers were mostly focused along and north of Route 2, so the southern half to two thirds of Vermont missed out.  But the showers this morning were widespread, and many areas got a few hours of rain, sometimes heavy.

As of 8 a.m., Burlington had received just over a half inch of rain. That's not exactly an incredible amount, but still manages to make this the wettest day of the month.

The showers were clearing out by mid-morning, setting me up for my hot weather whine.

We all felt the humidity, even during those showers. The weather disturbance that caused them is zipping off to our east.  The air mass hasn't changed since yesterday, except for the fact that it's even more humid than it was on Sunday.

Today will be the 32nd consecutive day in Burlington in which the temperature has not fallen below 60 degrees. Only one other year, back in 1898, had a longer streak, with 37 such days.   Also, Burlington got above 90 degrees yesterday for the 16th time this year.

Hot summer, anyone?

Before the next weather disturbance in the pipeline comes through, it looks like we will get at least some sunshine, so once again, the warmer valleys will probably hit 90 degrees.

Heat advisories are up for the valleys of western Vermont from north of Burlington to Massachusetts, and for the Connecticut River Valley from Brattleboro to north of White River Jumction. Between the hot air and the humidity, the heat index will be between 95 and 100 degrees.

The rest of Vermont won't quite meet the criteria for a heat advisory, but it will still be damn uncomfortable.

Another one of those pesky weather disturbances will approach us this afternoon.  Combined with the hot, humid air, scattered thunderstorms will erupt very nicely.  Of course, the word "scattered" should tell you 1. Your weather reporter here has a scattered brain and 2. Only some of us will get a storm.

A small minority of these storms could contain strong gusty winds and torrential downpours. Northern Vermont, along with northern New Hampshire, northern and western New York and most of Maine, are in a marginal risk zone for severe storms today. 

That means there will probably some isolated, rather short-lived episodes of severe storms here and there today.   It's possible some of the area might be bumped up to the next level of risk, called "slight" but that just means a slightly greater coverage of severe storms. This potential upgrade is just speculation on my part. to be honest.

An alleged cold front is coming through tomorrow, but don't break out those ski parkas.  Just like a cold front exactly a week earlier, any cooler air will lag far behind the front, so Tuesday will be another very warm, humid day. Some 90s might pop up again in southeastern Vermont. Southern New England will flirt with 100 degrees in spots.

On the bright side, you'll start to notice the humidity come down late in the day, especially north and west.

Then we get another round of average summer weather, just like we did during the second half of last week.  Another rinse and repeat.

Except after today, there won't be much rinsing in Vermont.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible daily Tuesday through Thursday, but don't hold your breath.  It will trend drier and warm by next weekend.

As we head into early August, it looks like we might go back into an above normal temperature/below normal rainfall regime again.  Time will tell.

Unlike some chilly seasons in the rather distant past, this will be another year in which we Vermonters won't feel cheated out of a summer.

We're now just past the meteorological midpoint of summer, and temperatures will start falling soon enough.  In just five or six months, on some dark and frigid winter day, we will be looking back on this month's high heat and humidity with some real fondness.

Hurricane Hanna Causes A Mess, Hot Atlantic Water Spells More Trouble

Debris scattered in Texas due to Hurricane Hanna 

A quick Vermont update at the bottom of this post, but since it's hurricane season and hurricanes are quite appropriately on everybody's mind....  

HURRICANE HANNA:

Hurricane Hanna showed what unusually warm water can do to a developing hurricane.

It's basically jet fuel for such storms.

Such was the case with Hurricane Hanna, which kept getting stronger all the way until it made landfall on the southern Texas coast.

Peak sustained winds were 90 mph, stronger than pretty much everybody anticipated just a day or two earlier.

The storm caused the type of damage you'd expect from such a storm. High winds damaged some structures, more than 280,000 homes and businesses were without power, widespread flooding damaged many other buildings, and embedded tornadoes caused added trouble. A large pier along the coast collapsed. Storm surges flooded parts of downtown Corpus Christi, Texas.

Hanna videos at bottom of this post.

Hanna, now well inland, is fading fast, but still dumping torrential rains and causing a lot more flooding.

OTHER STORMS:

Hanna was no doubt powered by warmer than normal water temperatures, but that's not the only ingredient you need. It's just one of the more important ones.

Case in point is former Tropical Storm Gonzalo. It fired up awfully quickly amid super warm ocean waters, but the sputtered. That's because dry air aloft got pulled into the tiny system and choked off its thunderstorms.  Former Gonzalo is now just a few scattered showers and storms heading into the Caribbean Sea.

So you see, hot water isn't everything.  It is hurricane jet fuel, but only if everthing works on all cylinders, so to speak.

It's certainly early in the hurricane season and forecasters are already watching the next potential Atlantic troublemaker. A growing disturbance way out in the central Atlantic will probably become Tropical Storm Isaias.

Damn name is impossible to spell and even worse to pronounce, but oh well.

Computer models - at least for now - take Wannabe Isaias to near or just off the southeastern United States coast in about a week or so.  The majority of models  seem to take this system out to sea, just missing the U.S., but these long range models are notoriously unreliable.  Anything could happen, so we'll just have to wait and see.

And let's not forget about Hurricane Douglas out in the Pacific!

Hurricane warnings are up for many of the Hawaiian Island.  Douglas this morning was a little more tha 200 mies east of Honolulu with top sustained winds of 90 mph.

It'll continue to slowly weaken as it approaches the islands, but will probably still be a hurricane as it passes through Hawaii. It's not weakening that fast because, in part, water temperatures heading toward the islands are not as cool as they usually are.

Trees and infrastructure aren't really designed to hold up against strong winds in much of Hawaii, so this could be a real troublemaker

Even if Douglas doesn't go directly over any of the islands, it will be close enough to cause hurricane force gusts through downsloping forces along mountains, or winds funnel through valleys.  The upper floors of Honolulu high rises risk lots of shattered windows, too, because winds near the top floors will be stronger than at street level.

Flash flooding will be a real hazard, too at least for the rest of the day

VERMONT UPDATE

Yeah, it's pretty hot out there, despite some morning clouds in the northern  half of the state that temporarily slowed today's warming. Warmer valleys still  have a shot of getting to 90 degrees today, despite some lingering partial clouds.

We'll need to watch a so-called "ridge runner" late this afternoon and early evening along the International Border. This is a disturbance that is running over the top of a hot dome of air in the middle of the nation through the Great Lakes and into Ontario.

It'll move east to southeastward into southern Quebec and eventually western Maine later today. Some of the thunderstorms with this thing could creep south to just along the border between Quebec and Vermont later today, and a couple storms could be strong, especially in the Northeast Kingsdom.

Other little "ridge runners" might affect us with scattered showers and storms late tonight and again Monday afternoon and evening.  The biggest "threat" from these will probably be locally torrential downpours. Some places won't get any rain and all. It'll be the usual hit and miss type stuff.

It's possible clouds tomorrow will hold temperatures below 90 in the north, but even if that happens, it'll be ridiculously humid, so it will be uncomfortable.

Just like last Tuesday, a weak cold front will come through this Tuesday with a risk of some showers and storms, and gradually lowering humidity starting later on Tuesday. We hope.

Videos:

News video summarizing the storm.  Love the transition from official telling people to stay inside during the storm and then cutting immediately to ABC report in the eye of the storm:



Lots of debris in the water on the Corpus Christi waterfront:

Hanna, Now A Hurricane, Steals The Show. Also: Vermont Heat AGAIN!

Radar of Hurricane Hanna east of Corpus Christi, Texas this
morning. Powerful winds and storms now completelu
encircle Hanna's eye, which means further
strenthening is likely until the storm
makes landfall this afternoon. 

A few days ago, it looked like we would spend the rest of the week talking about a would-be hurricane named Gonzalo, while ignoring a nothingburger in the Gulf of Mexico.

As more proof that the tropics can be unpredictable, the "nothingburger" is now Hurricane Hanna, and it's about to strike southern Texas. And cause lots of problems.

Satellite views of Hanna overnight showed it organizing quite well, forming an eye with curved bands of intense thunderstorms surrounding that center.

The National Hurricane Center confirmed that as of around 7 a.m. this morning, top sustained winds in Hanna had reached 75 mph, enough to be the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.

It looks like Hanna will keep strengthening until it hits the southern Texas coast this afternoon.  The only thing keeping Hanna from become an even bigger monster is it doesn't have much time to get more powerful before it makes landfall.

However, powerful thunderstorms managed to completely surround the eye of Hanna as its central air pressure lowered. That's certainly a great recipe for further strengthening. Some observers  this morning were wondering if top winds could reach 90-100 mph.

Don't think for a minute so called "weaker" Category 1 hurricanes don't cause a lot of problems. This one will create a lot of difficulties, as most Cat 1's do.  It will cause wind damage. Even worse, storm surges of three to five feet above normal sea levels are expected around and south of Corpus Christi.  It's a low coast line, so that will cause lots of flooding.

Worse still, Hanna will dump between six and 12 inches of rain on far southern Texas, which will cause a lot of flash flooding.

There's more bad news with this:  A hurricane that is growing stronger as it nears the coast is especially bad because it catches people off-guard.  Some people in southern Texas might have been saying yesterday, "Oh, a tropical storm. I guess we won't have a beach day on Saturday."

Now, they have little time to get out of the way of wind, storm surgest and inland flooding.  I was, however, heartened to see news video of LOTS of cars driving away from the southern Texas coastline Friday evening.

Additionally, as we've all heard on the news, Texas is enduring a terrible spike in illnesses, deaths and hospitalizations due to the Covid-19 pandemic.  So on top of the extreme health crisis, southern Texas has to deal with a hurricane.

How do you socially distance in evacutation centers?  What if people are hurt or need to be rescued during Hurricane Hanna when medical and emergency teams are already stretched so thin?

They told us way back in the spring this would be a difficult hurricane season.  This is the opening salvo, and it's certainly not a good one.

Going back to the other tropical storm, Gonzalo, it's falling apart.  It will bring tropical storm conditions to some of the Windward Islands, and it's still expected to dissipate in the Caribbean Sea.  You never know what will happen to Gonzalo's remnants in a few days, so its currently disorganized mass of clouds could come back from the dead in a week or so.

VERMONT HEAT OVERPERFORMS AGAIN

Speaking of things that keep rising from the dead, another hot spell is coming to Vermont, especially Sunday and Monday.

There had been hope earlier in the week, that temperatures would stay pretty close to normal, continuing a trend that started Tuesday and continued through Friday. All four of those days were only slightly warmer than average, instead of torrid.

It's back to hot again for a few days. Today won't be too bad, because humidity levels are pretty comfortable. Still, afternoon highs will get into the 80s pretty much statewide.  The broader, wider valleys will probably get into the upper 80s

The humidity will increase by Sunday, along with the temperatures. Burlington could easily see its 16th 90 degree reading of the year tomorrow, and we might make it to #17 on Monday.

It doesn't look like there will be any cooling thunderstorms Sunday. However, on a very muggy Sunday night, and early Monday, some weather disturbances riding over the northern edge of the Northeast U.S. heat ridge could bring showers and thunderstorms to Vermont. If they happen, it's most likely north of Route 2.

Scattered hit and miss  showers and storms could punctuate the heat and humidity Monday.  A cold front slowly sagging south through northern New England will gradually bring relief to us later Tuesday and especially Wednesday, when temperatures will fall - and I use that term loosely - to readings that are similar to what we've had the past three or four days.

Hanna And Her Siblings

As expected, Tropical Storm Hanna formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is going to cause some mischief along the southern coast of Texas.

Hanna looked pretty healthy on satellite images this morning. As of 4 a.m., the storm only had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, but I'm sure they'll find that it will have strengthened by later this morning.

Luckily, Hanna likely won't have time to strengthen all that much as it heads west towards Texas.  As of early this morning, it was only about 280 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas and will make landfall by early Saturday afternoon.

Still, a well-organized system like Hanna sitting over very toasty Gulf of Mexico waters can strengthen fast. There's a chance that Hanna could become a hurricane even though it's already fairly close to land. Only after landfall is it guaranteed to weaken.

Pretty much all tropical storms and hurricanes weaken upon landfall.

It looks like Hanna might dump upwards of a half foot of rain in some sections of southern Texas, certainly enough to raise a flood risk.  It will have gotten stronger by the time it reaches Texas. It probably won't be all the way up to hurricane strength, but it might get close.

Meanwhile, Hanna's unreliable little brother Tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to churn east of the Lesser Antilles. That storm is a wild card, because it's small and unpredictable.   Smaller storms can strengthen or fall apart on a dime, and that's the kind of thing we're seeing with Gonzalo.

A little dry air intruded on Gonzalo yesterday, disrupting its circulation.  It still might get stronger as it moves into the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.  It's then expected to get weaker again once it's into the eastern Caribbean.

But little Gonzalo probably isn't done with surprises yet, so  the National Hurricane Center will certainly keep a close eye on the little devil.

Meanwhile, out in the Pacific, Hanna's big brother Hurricane Douglas continues to spin toward Hawaii. Douglas was a Category 4 monster early this morning with top sustained wind of 130 mph. Luckily, Douglas isn't near any land at the moment, so it's not wrecking anything.

However, Douglas is still headed toward Hawaii.  Cooler water in its path and strong winds aloft will surely weaken Douglas. It will still be a borderline hurricane/tropical storm with winds of 75 mph as it gets near the Big Island of Hawaii over the weekend, according to current forecasts.

Back in the Atlantic Ocean, a strong weather disturbance is coming off the west coast of Africa and will start to head west far out there.  This one could also eventually turn into a tropical storm or hurricane, so stay tuned!

Rinse And Repeat: Storms Again, Mostly South, More Tropical Trouble

A little humid air and a little light rain help add a bit of color
to my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

It seems like the Burlington-area anti rain force field broke down a little bit this morning, as I've noticed a fairly nice downpour passed through the Queen Cith this morning.

Up here in St. Albans, it did rain a little, so I'll take it.

Meanwhile, the tropics are bubbling with activity.  I'll get into that in a bit, but before that, let's get into the local stuff first.

VERMONT RAIN PROSPECTS/WARMTH

It would be nice if it rained more, but I think northern Vermont is mostly done with the rain today, save for a scattering of showers and storms - the  hit and miss kind - this afternoon.

Like yesterday the real action in the thunderstorm department will be south. Though this time, more of Vermont looks to be involved.

Central and southern New England, including southern and eastern Vermont and southern New Hampshire, are in the NOAA' Storm Prediction Center's slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms today.

That's the second of five alert levels and means there is the possibility of scattered severe storms, but nothing widespread.

The rest of Vermont, and most of  the rest of northern New England is in a marginal risk zone, which means there might be an isolated severe storm here and there.

Basically, the clouds and rain in northern Vermont and New York stabilized the atmosphere, making it harder, but not impossible, for afternoon showers and storms to develop.  Central and southern Vermont didn't get into this morning's rain. There will be a little more sun there this morning, which could help encourage afternoon storms

After today's storms go by, there's no precipitation in the offing until at least later Sunday. We have another toasty weekend ahead, with daytime highs in the 80s, with maybe a spot 90 here and there.

The following is still a bit uncertain, but we have a shot - just a chance - early next week of having the coolest spell of weather since mid-June.  If this comes to pass, it won't be chilly by any means, but there might be a few days in there that don't even make it to 80 degrees in the afternoon, and Champlain Valley nighttime temperatures could go below 60 degrees.

In other words, we have a round of average summer weather coming up for a change.

This coolish spell is likely to end prospects for Burlington to have its longest stretch of consecutive days that stayed above 60 degrees, but we will probably have the second longest such stretch.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, the longest stretch of continous above 60 days was 37 in 1898.  The second longest stretch was 30 days in 1988.

As of yesterday, we're up to 27 days, and it most likely won't go below 60 through Sunday

TROPICS: GONZALO, WANNABE HANNA AND DOUGLAS

Tropical Storm Gonzalo, as expected, got going way out in the Atlantic yesterday, but its future is highly questionable.

As of now, the National Hurricane Center expects to become a hurricane for awhile, then maybe weaken as it enters the Caribbean Sea.

However, as noted yesterday, Gonzalo is a tiny little thing. It doesn't take much to disrupt a small storm.

Several meteorologists noticed this morning that an intrusion of dry air had disrupted Gonzalo's circulation early this morning.  That might hinder any intensification. We shall see.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico I dismissed yesterday as a nothingburger now seems poised to become a tropical storm. If it does do that, they'll name it Hanna.

If Hanna forms as expected, it will be the earliest eight storm of the season on record.  The old record for earliest "H" storm was on August 3, 2005.

Meanwhile, we have a sleeper in the form of Hurricane Douglas. I call it a sleeper because it hasn't been really getting a lot of attention.

But it should.

Douglas is way out in the Pacific Ocean heading west away from distant Mexico.  Top winds this morning were 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The problem is, it's heading toward Hawaii.  Douglas will weaken over cooler waters as it approaches Hawaii, but it will still be a low end hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time it gets there.

Hawaii seems to have gotten more prone to tropical storms in recent years and decades.   Due to natural ocean currents, the water is coolish around Hawaii, which tends to kill hurricanes. Such storms thrive on hot water.

However, the oceans around Hawaii aren't as cold as they used to be, in large part due to climate change.  Which means if all other things being equal, hurricanes and tropical storms near Hawaii don't tend to weaken as fast ast they used to.

Back in the Atlantic, yes, it's been a very busy start to the hurricane season, but the power of the storms have been overwhelming.

But this hurricane/tropical storm season isn't nearly as dramatic and active as the first part of the notorious 2005 season (which eventually brought us such disasters as Katrina and Rita).

There's a measure of how active a hurricane season is something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE.  It's a measure of how intense a particular hurricane season is based on the intensity and longevity of each tropical storm or hurricane.

Though we have a record number of storms this year, they've all been rather weak and short lived. According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist and expert on Atlantic hurricanes.

The ACE number so far in the Atlantic Ocean is eight as of yesterday. Normal for this time of year is seven, so it's close.  In the notorious 2005 season, ACE was already up to 56.

Even if Gonzalo turns into a dud and Hanna turns out to be a weakling, the ACE count will probably increase to a little above average in the next few days.

Shower Chances, Maybe Strong South, Tropics Turning Active

Hanging baskets looking to the clouds and waiting for rain recently
on my back deck in St. Albans, Vermont. Flower and structural
design by my husband, Jeff Modereger

It's still not nearly as wet as I'd like it to be here in Vermont as the trend in below normal rainfall has continued since it at least April.

There are chances for showers and storms off and on through next week.  But I don't see anything major at this point. It also appears  - for now, anyway - that the imaginary anti-rain force in the Champlain Valley is holding strong.

Shower and storm chances look best for the next couple of days outside the Champlain Valley, though we can hold out some hope a stray shower will hit there, too.

There's actually a chance of strong to severe storms today in far southern Vermont and points south of there through southwestern New England down into the Middle Atlantic states.  High winds are the biggest threat in this broad area of severe storm risk, though an isolated, brief tornado can't be ruled out.

Further north, there might be a rumble or two of thunder, but nothing huge. Already this morning, a narrow band of showers has dampened a good chunk of southern Vermont, but that was moving out.

By later today and this evening, there will be a good shot at some showers outside the Champlain Valley.  In the valley, there will probably be some patches of rain, but the chances are there are a little less than elsewhere in the state, at least in my opinion.

It looks like more showers and storms will form tomorrow, but again, the best coverage seems like it could be outside the Champlain Valley.  It's not that northwestern Vermont will miss out on the rain. That area will almost certainly get some.  Just not as much as points south and east.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of Vermont of most of the Northeast in a marginal risk zone for severe storms on Thursday. That means there might be isolated incidents of strong, damagiing wind gusts, but nothing widespread.

The next real chance of rain in Vermont after tomorrow will come along on Sunday.  No guarantees on how much that will amount to, but all the meteorologists will surely keep an eye on that.

TROPICAL TROUBLE

Hurricane experts have ramped up the alarm bells about this year's hurricane season potential, given the unusually warm waters in much of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form. Other atmospheric factors still favor a lot of storms. Even worse, the current weather pattern, it it holds, would tend to steer storms toward the United States.

Summertime clouds not quite getting their act together enough
to produce showers this past Monday over St. Albans, Vermont.

We've already had hints of a troublesome year, since we're way ahead of normal in terms of how many tropical storms have already formed. There's already been six, but thankfully, they've all tended to be pretty weak.

Stronger hurricanes tend to get going in August and September, and you should expect the tropics to start becoming more active right about now.

The tropics certainly got that memo. Probably by the time you read this, Tropical Storm Gonzalo will have formed way out in the central Atlantic.  From there it will move west toward the Caribbean Sea, but exactly where and at what strength is anybody's guess

Wannabe Gonzalo is a tiny, cute little thing spinning out there.  Tropical systems that are small in size are notoriously hard to forecast, both in terms of strength and direction.  When such a storm is tiny, just a little bit of dry air intruding or a few gusts of strong upper level winds can tear it apart and kill it.

On the other hand, a tiny storm can defy predictions and cloak itself in its own protective shield of moisture, and strengthen quickly.   Right now the National Hurricane Center is taking, in my opinion, a correct conservative approach and just maintaining Wannabe Gonzalo as a tropical storm right through the weekend.  They'll surely change and update this forecast in the coming days.

It's possible Wannabe Gonzalo could pose a United States threat next week, but that is a big question mark right now.

Another weaker tropical type system is lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.  It's unlikely to become a tropical storm, though some computer models think it will strengthen to that level.  It's headed toward Texas, and will give parts of that state a deep soaking this coming weekend.

Another batch of storms that will move off the west coast of Africa in the next few days will also have to be watched in case it turns into an eventual threat.

More Vermont 90s, And Interesting Hot Green Mountain State Trends

Burlington managed to eek out another day above 90 degrees on Monday, making it the 15th day this year already in which it has gotten to the 90 degree mark.

A so-called cold front had passed through earlier in the day, but the slightly cooler air lagged far back in Ontario, so it wasn't really until evening that we began to feel some refreshing breezes from the northwest.

Ben Frechette, a meteorologist at WPTZ-TV, loves looking at data, as I do, shared some more stats yesterday.

I've been saying all along that the average number of days that get to 90 degrees in Burlington each year is five.

That's true if you look at the data starting in the 1880s and going through until now.  However, many climatologists look at the average going back the past 30 years or so.  If you do that, the average number of 90 days in Burlington is eight.

Frechette shared the chart you see in this post.  (Click on it to make it bigger and easier to see).

The chart shows the yearly number of 90 degree days in Burlington dating back to 1883. The darker line you see in the chart is the 30 year rolling average for the entire data set.

As you can, there is a definite trend toward increasing numbers. Such a long term trend suggests to me that climate change is playing a role, but it's probably not the only thing going on.

There are probably some cycles thrown in amid the general climate change warming. You can clearly see a spike in the number of 90 degree days in the 1940s.

Part of that might be because there was less forest in Vermont back then than there is now.  If you have more forests, you tend to have cooler temperatures in the summer because of all the transpiration and water evaporation from the trees.

But there was about the same or even even less forest cover in the decades before the 1940s, and no corresponding higher number of 90 degree days.  For whatever reason, though, the 1940s were generally warmer and drier than previous decades.

Vermont had as little as 20 percent forest cover in the late 1800s due to farmers clearing the land. By the 1980s, forest cover had reached about 75 percent.  It has stayed relatively steady since.

Moreover, rainfall has increased in Vermont during the past few decades, at a rate of about 1.5 inches per decade since 1960 or so.

Scientists think climate change is largely behind the increased rainfall. Remember, all that water from the trees and those rain storms might make it feel more humid in the summer, but the moisture also works to keep the temperatures from spiking.

That's because in wet times, more of the sun's energy goes toward evaporating water than heating the air. Plus, excess moisture can at times create extra clouds, blocking the sun, though that's not always the case.

You'd think the increasing forests and the heavier rainfall would work against an increasing trend of summertime 90 degree weather. But you see the rising trend in Frechette's chart.

One big caveat:  The immediate Burlington area has seen more suburbanization and sprawl over the past four decades than most other parts of Vermont.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington makes sure to calibrate things to ensure accurate temperature readings.

Still, I don't see as much of a warming trend in areas of Vermont that haven't changed as much as the Champlain Valley has. This part of the Champlain Valley has probably lost of bit of forest cover since 1970 or so.

I admit I have not deeply analyzed data from places like Montpelier or St Johnsbury, but I suspect the rising temperature trend lines in those communities might be a bit more tempered.

Maybe Frechette can look at that, although the dude is already incredibly busy with his weather duties at WPTZ.

Not 100 Degrees, Here's Why (But Still Plenty Hot!)

It's still hot, so I'll try again to cool you off with a winter
photo of my St. Albans, Vermont driveway. 

Burlington, Vermont fell well short of the speculated 100 degree reading many of us were contemplating on Sunday.

Things have to line up just perfectly to reach the triple digits during Burlington heat waves and they assuredly did NOT line up correctly on Sunday.

It's only gotten to 100 degrees four times in the past 150 years or so in Burlington, so it's a pretty high bar to cross.

If the atmosphere is hot enough for 100 degrees, you're not actually going to get there in  Vermont unless you have full sunshine.  We didn't have that on Sunday

The writing almost seemed on the wall by early to mid morning Sunday.   A dying complex of shower and storms up in Quebec sent some clouds across the northern half of Vermont that didn't clear out unti mid-mid morning.

That delayed the days warming and put us behind schedule to reach that magic triple digit figure.

We had a few hours of full sunshine that brought temperatures up above 90 by shortly after noon.  However, a powerful line of thunderstorms in southern Ontario had blossomed and blew a veil of high, thin clouds our way, starting in the early afternoon.

The clouds dimmed the sun, preventing it from fully heating us.  Burlington "only" reached 95 degrees. It wasn't even quite the hottest day this summer, but it was pretty damn hot by anyone's standard

Burlington fell short of the record high for the date, which was 98 degrees. However, St. Johnsbury broke their record high, reaching 95 degrees besting the town's old record for the date of 93.  Montpelier tied its record high of 91, and Springfield in Vermont's southeast tied its record high of 92.

RAIN MOSTLY MISSES, AGAIN

It was interesting to see the Champlain Valley's 2020 anti-rain force field in action yesterday. That powerful line of storms in Ontario basically went "poof" on its way here.  In the tragic remnants of that line of storms, a new batch of storms formed in northwestern New York, prompting severe thunderstorm warnings in the Adirondacks.

That line fell apart on the way to the Champlain Valley so we only got light showers. More storms then redeveloped east of the Champlain Valley.

A small local downpour did go over my house early this morning.  I guess the anti-rain force field was taking a pre-dawn nap. Between light showers last evening and a 4 a.m. - ish  downpour, I collected a respectable 0.7 inches of rain in St. Albans.  Burlington could only muster 0.07 inches.

STILL A HOT SUMMER

We've got one more hot one to go today.  A cold front has gone through, but you wouldn't know it.  It's still hot and muggy.  There's a slight chance Burlington could reach 90 degrees again today, but it most likely will be well into the 80s instead.

Somewhat cooler, but still warmish weather will continue the rest of the week.

So far this summer in Burlington, it's gotten to at least 95 degrees six times.  The record for the most such days is nine, in 1944 followed by eight in 2018.

Burlington has had 14 days in which it got to 90 or better so far this year, The most in a single year is 26.

Sunday was the 24th consecutive day in which the temperature failed to drop below 60 degrees in Burlington. The record is 30 such days in 1988.  I don't think we'll break that record because I suspect we might have a couple days this week in which it'll go into the upper 50s at night.

For what they're worth, the long range forecasts don't really promise us any strong Canadian cold fronts anytime soon. The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for continued generally warmer than average weather for us into the first days of August.

Sunday's Squirt Of Hot Air Will Be Nasty

The middle of the nation is still broiling under a relentless heat wave, and a squirt of that very hot air looks like it will make it to Vermont on Sunday.    

The color shading on this map has most of New England outside of
Maine in the 95-100 degree range Sunday afternoon. Click on
the image to make it bigger and easier to see.  If you look
closely, this particular map has a foreast high of 99 degrees
in Burlington, Vermont. We shall see. 

The good news is the hot air will be flushed out by a cold front by Monday, though it won't exactly be "cold" behind said weather front. 

Temperatures here will remain above normal, but  not torrid, like the kind of weather expected in parts of the Plains and South, and below the Mason-Dixon Line along the East Coast.  

A warm front passed through yesterday, with disappointingly light showers in the morning.  We had a gorgeous evening, though, but the warm to hot air is now being established.  Today will be definitely on the warm side, with highs well into the 80s, with a few spot 90 degree readings in the warmer valleys.

Tonight, especially in the Champlain Valley where a south wind will prevent radiational cooling, it will be on the stuffy side.  I imagine the "low" temperature in Burlington tomorrow morning will be around 75 degrees or so.

All the ingredients are coming together for a very hot Sunday. Temperatures through a thick layer of the atmosphere will be at near record high values. 

For the Champlain Valley, the wind will be coming out of the southwest.  It'll come down the slope of the Adirondacks in that scenario.  Air flowing down the slopes of a mountain gets compressed, which heats it.  

As usual, the air column over us does get cooler with height.  But at around 8,000 feet overhead, says the National Weather Service there will be another layer of warm air which would prevent any cooling thunderstorms to develop on Sunday. 

If you want to cool off, here's a photo of cars stuck on the hill near
my St. Albans, Vermont house during a March, 2017 blizzard

Taken together, all this means an we should endure an expected high in the mid to upper 90s in the Champlain Valley on Sunday and highs of 88 to 95 in pretty much the rest of Vermont. 

One or two models or forecasts I've seen predict a high of 100 degrees in Burlington Sunday. I suppose that's possible, but I see it as pretty unlikely. 

To nobody's surprise, a big chunk of Vermont and surrounding areas is under a heat advisory on Sunday, so take it easy!  Do your outdoor work very early in the morning, and retreat to air conditioning if possible by afternoon.  Have your nice drinks of water or other refreshing non-alcoholic beverage handy, too.

I'm saying non-alcoholic, not because I'm on some sort of temperance movement. It's just that alcohol can exascerbate the effects of heat. 

The only saving grace regarding the heat tomorrow is that the air will mix in the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere. That will tend to lower the humidity just a bit for a time in the afternoon. And most of us will have a steady breeze, instead of having to endure still, hot air 

The record high in Burlington Sunday is 98 degrees set in 2013.  That's a pretty high record, so it will be tough to beat. Montpelier's record high for the date on Sunday is 92 degrees, so that one is in jeopardy. St. Johnsbury's record high is 95 degrees, so we'll see about that. 

That cold front is coming through later Sunday night or early Monday.  The timing is such that we probably won't see any severe thunderstorms with it.  Any rain that does fall Sunday night or early Monday will unfortunately be only scattered a brief.

A few spots might get a decent dousing from some embedded downpours, but this won't be any kind of widespread rain. 

Behind the cold front, it will be dry and only a little warmer than average for the first half of the week. Other weather disturbances give us a risk of some showers later in the week but temperatures will still remain mostly in the low 80s for highs.  So that's not terrible. 

The Monthly Global Assessment: Surprise! Hot Again

As we do every month, we check in with NOAA's Centers For Environmental Information to get the regular update as they check the world's temperature.

As always, the Globe is running a fever.

June, 2020 was the worlds third hottest on record.

I suppose if you're looking for a bright side, at least June wasn't #1 or #2  on the heat scale like most months in the past year.

Overall, the places with the warmest temperatures, relative to average were most of the United States, southern Brazil, northern and eastern Europe, northern Russia, southern China and the North Pacific Ocean.

Even in a warming world, there are always places that trend cooler in a particular month. This time, those places were western and southeastern Russia, India, Greenland and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.

It was good that Greenland was cool at the time of year when the sun angle is highest in the northern hemisphere. It probably cut down on the amount of melting Greenland has been seeing in recent years.

Of course, other parts of the Arctic were much warmer than average.

As of July 15, Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record for this time of year, beating the record low last set in 2011, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The sea ice is particularly pathetic north of Siberia, which has had months of far above normal temperatures this year.

IN VERMONT

Locally, as we know, it's been a hot summer so far in Vermont. We have another squirt of very hot weather coming up, but luckily, this one won't last super long.

You'll notice the humidity building today as showers taper off. (The showers, as I expected, were more lame than many forecasts).  Northwest Vermont in particular seems to have an anti-rain force field this summer.

Saturday will be humid and relatively  hot, with 90 readings likely in the warmer valleys.

I'm sure there will be some heat advisories Sunday as the humidity builds more and temperatures go well into the 90s.  Burlington at this point is expected to get up to 97 degrees Sunday, which would make it the hottest day of the year if it comes to pass.

Luckily,  cold front will come to the rescue late Sunday night and Monday. After the front passes, it won't exactly be cold, but temperatures next week look as if they'll be near, or just a little warmer than average.

If the cold front is later than expected, we might squeeze one more 90 degree afternoon Monday, but after that, I'm guessing no more 90-degree weather for the rest of next week.

Nationwide Heat Is Certainly Persistent

And the heat goes on.  Most of the nation, including Vermont
can expect above normal temperatures through the
end of July. 

It's been a hot month for pretty much all but the northwestern corner of the continental United States as no real cold fronts or pockets of cooler air have interrupted the long, drawn out heat in the troubled summer of 2020.

The length of time the heat has settled over us, and the broad area it has covered is the impressive part. There haven't been many all time record hot tempertures, but the torrid weather has just dragged on.

Washington DC's longest stretch of consecutive days at 90 degrees or hotter is 21, set in 1980 and 1988.  As of today, they're up to 20 consecutive days this year.  The forecast high in DC today is 90 degrees. Tomorrow, it's forecast to reach 94 degrees.

Miami, Florida, just endured 20 days with a daily heat index reaching at least 103 degrees.  There have been 23 days this year with a high temperature of at least 94 degrees in Miami, the most for any entire year on record. And it's only mid-July, so there's more coming.

Buffalo, New York,  endured 90 degree temperatures daily from July 3 through 10, peaking at 98 degrees. Those eight days were the longest streak of 90 degree weather on record.

An exception to the lack of all time record highs rule this summer is Texas.  San Antonio, Texas on Monday had its hottest July day on record when it reached 107 degrees. Amarillo, Texas set a record for the month of July and suffered its second hottest day in that city's history with a reading of 110 degrees. Del Rio, Texas tied its July record of 112 the same day.

In Death Valley, California, the low and high temperature there Sunday were 100 degrees and 128 degrees. Yes, it's always torrid in Death Valley during the summer, but that 128 degrees is the hottest any place in the world has seen for at least two years.

The Pacific Northwest is the one "air conditioned" spot in the U.S. this summer. For instance, all but three of the first 15 days of July in Spokane, Washington were a little cooler than average.

Here in Vermont, the warmth has been persistent, too. Especially at night.  Burlington is having one of the longest periods on record in which the temperature has stayed at 60 degrees or above.  So far, we're up to 20 consecutive days.  The longest such stretch was 30 days in July and August, 1988.

Only one day so far this month has failed to reach 80 degrees. It was "only" 79 degrees on Tuesday.

Those looking for a break in the warmth, heat and humdity are out of luck. We in Vermont enjoyed a taste of slightly lower humidity the past couple of days, but that's coming back, starting tomorrow.

A warm front will at least hopefully bring a round of showers tomorrow morning. By Saturday and Sunday, we will probably be closing in on 90 degrees again, with increasing humidity.

It will cool down slightly again next week, but it will be far from chilly, with daily highs still likely to exceed 80 degrees, with no big pushes of cool, dry air from Canada expected. The overall pattern features generally warmer than normal weather here in the Northeast through the end of the month.

Flash Flood Update: Damage, But Could Have Been Woirse

Haile remained piled up in Sanford, Maine after Tuesday morning's
intense hail storm. 

I'm sure there are plenty of residents around eastern Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine trying to restore washed out driveways and damp basements in the wake of yesterday's flash flooding.

There is a fair amount of damage here and there, but it could have been worse, considering how hard the rain came down.  It seems like it let up just in time to prevent any kind of catastrophe.

Still, water flowed into two operating rooms at a hospital in Woodsville, New Hampshire, forcing the cancelation of two surgeries. Several roads in that area were closed by flooding.

In Vermont, storm reports include an eight by six foot section of road washed out in East Cabot, and another washed out road near St. Johnsbury.  St. Johnsbury itselt reported 1.83 inches of rain Tuesday. In Bradford, Vermont, about 3.5 inches of rain fell in less than six hours.

The most dramatic of the storms occured in southwestern Maine, where hail fell so heavily in some spots that snow plows were called out. A car dealership in Sanford, Maine ended up with more than 1,000 cars sustaining hail damage. 

A couple videos of the Maine hail storm at the bottom of this post.

In northwestern Vermont, the anti-rain force field held, as usual.  Not a drop of rain fell here in St. Albans, and just a trace was reported in Burlington.

The next shot of rain comes Thursday night as a weather front approaches from the west, then kind of washes out over or just past us. It still has enough oomph to give us at least a shot of some showers and scattered thunder Thursday night and Friday.

Videos:

Here's what the hail storm looked like in Biddeford, Maine:


A drive through the part of Maine that got hit by that hail storm.  Notice the ice accumulation and hail fog.  This dense fog often forms right after a hail storm as the hail cools the humid post-storm air near the ground.

That Flash Flood Threat Materialized For Some Of Us - Dangerously

While New Hampshire and eastern Vermont were flooding, incredible
hail piled up this morning near Wells, Maine. Photo by Shawna Marie
Druin via Twitter 

While those of us in northwestern Vermont had a quiet weather night and early morning, it was anything but in eastern Vermont and New Hampshire.

That flash flood threat I spoke of yesterday materialized in some of those spots. Thunderstorms, a few of them severe, and torrential showers and thunderstorms developed over night and are continuing in those regions this morning.

All this is a developing situation, but here's what we have as of mid-morning.

Flash flood warnings are up for most of central and northern New Hampshire and bits and pieces of eastern and northeastern Vermont.  

The trouble in New Hampshire is particularly severe, with reports of life threatening flooding in Woodsville, New Hampshire, just across the Connecticut River from Wells River, Vermont.

Water was said to be pouring into the local hospital in Woodsville. Rainfall rates further north in Sugar Hill, New Hampshire were as high as five inches per hour for brief periods.  Flash flood warnings were up this morning in Vermont near Woodsville, in towns like Wells River and Bradford.

As of 8:30 a.m. today, another big are of of  concern in Vermont is a stretch along Route 2 and surrounding hill towns between Marshfield and Danville. 

That flash flood warning near Route 2 was later extended further east and north to include St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville.  There is a river bank mobile home park along the Passumpsic River that is prone to flooding. I worry about that neighborhood this morning.

The rain has really come down hard there and was still pouring as o 9 a.m. Some spots were already up to 3 inches of rain in short order, with more falling. That gush of water is no doubt sweeping down steep hills and mountains, causing a potentially dangerous flash flood situation.

Ominously, the heavy rain appeared to be sitting nearly stationary on radar images over northeastern and eastern Vermont and western New Hampshire through mid-morning. This could get really, really bad.

The storms also look pretty intense, with plenty of lightning strikes in northern Vermont east of the Greens and northern New Hampshire. There's still the risk of severe storms, too, especially further east in New Hampshire and Maine. Hail completely covered the ground near Wells, Maine this morning. The dangerous weather could extend into northern Massachusetts as well.

The flood threat will continue today in those regions through the day, while those of us who were begging for a little piece of the action to the west in the Champlain Valley will see little or nothing.

The main culprit in the troublesome weather east of the Green Mountains is sometning I just talked about here in this blog thingy a couple weeks ago: A mesoscale convective system, or MCS. 

They're common in the Midwest and Plains.  They are much less frequent in New England, but certainly do happen, often with damaging results.

It's too early to really assesswhat kind of damage, ias happened in the area hit by this New England MCS.  I do know there were some severe thunderstorm warnings early this morning in addition to the flood threat.

Vermont is prone to flooding. Different parts of the state have been declared federal disaster zones 13 times in the past decade due to flooding.  I have no idea if today's possible flooding will rise to that level.

People outside the storm zone, like in the Champlain Valley, could see a great lightning show off to the east before dawn today.

In the New Hampshire flash flood warning zone, rainfall rates were/are at times one to three inches per hour, certainly enough to produce a flash flood.

The threat from this MCS, and upper level low pressure system will continue through much of the day as this mess slowly heads east.  Additonal showers and storms will form on the western edges of this in Vermont, mostlly east of the Green Mountains today, which could cause more high water problems.

The danger is even higher in New Hampshire and western Maine, since this mass of storms will keep firing up all day as the upper level low slowly moves overhead.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center says the heavy rain and storms will persist and actually expand in  areal coverage going into this afternoon. Already, as of 10 a.m., a few showers had expanded into the central Champlain Valley.

In western Vermont, there likely won't be enough activity to cause flood trouble, but this forecast shows that anything east of the Green Mountains in particular might well be in continued trouble for the rest of the days.

Looking forward, we get a sort of break from the humidity tonight and Wednesday before it returns big time by the weekend.  There will be more threats of showers and storms with locally heavy rain occasionally between now and early next week.

Which probably means some areas of the region that are too dry will stay that way, but areas that are too wet face the risk of more water trouble.

Fay Was A Bust; Back To Praying For Random Showers

"The Wrath Of Fay" Skies over St. Albans, Vermont around 6:30 this
morning as the center of what was Fay was probably entering
southwest Vermont. As you can tell, the storm was a bust
for Vermont.  By the way wind gusts at the time this
photo was taken were "roaring" in the um, 10-15 mph range.

As you can tell by going outside, Tropical Storm Fay was a bust in Vermont, dropping only a little rain and not the nice soaking downpours we'd hoped for.

Fay's main rain band went further west than expected, into central New York, and weakened even more rapidly than originally thought as it trekked up New York's Hudson River Valley.  Dry air also got sucked into the system from the west, cutting down on the rainfall.

By the time it reached Albany, Fay was just a diffuse remnant low, spewing out a few lame northbound showers in Vermont.

This band of rain at least is affecting pretty much all of Vermont with briefly moderate rains in some spots. It won't be huge, but we'll take any raindrop we can get at this point. .

On with the drought, I guess.

Sure, there are more rain chances, but we're back to the routine we've since May: Just hoping random showers might hit your own garden.  At least we won't go days on end without at least getting some risk of rain, so there's that. And it's a little cooler.

Yesterday in Burlington was the fifth day this year of 95 degree or warmer weather. The record for an entire year is nine.  We've also had 12 days of 90 degree or hotter weather. We're still quite a ways from the record of 26 in a single year, which is good.

It also looks like more 90 degree weather is unlikely for several days at least. We'll deal with lot of warmth and humidity and that sort of ickiness, but nothing extreme.

There will be severa chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, so I'm thinking almost everyone will get a little rain over the next week or so.

Now that Fay went pffft, we're left with a humid, tropical air mass.  That disturbance coming in from the west I've been talking about over the past couple of days is still moving into the picture today, so more showers and scattered thunderstorms will blossom this afternoon and evening.

A few lucky people will get some good downpours with these today.  A very few unlucky people are at risk for a severe storm.  A couple of them could produce microbursts, which would bring local damaging winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe weather, the lowest of five risk levels.

More of the same is due all week, though some days will be drier than others. Some days will have a pretty good chance of showers and storms, other days, not so much. It all depends on the timing of these little summertime weather disturbances coming at us in this generally warm, humid west to southwest air flow over us.

Tropical Storm Fay did manage to cause a little trouble in some of the Mid-Atlantic States.  It made landfall a little north of Atlantic City, New Jersey on Friday with its packet of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Several towns in and around New Jersey reported flooding problems.  Gusty coastal winds brought down some trees and power lines.  This was certainly no mega disaster, but it was an inconvenience.

Fay was also the earliest "F" storm on record.

Tropical Storm Fay Is Vermont's Friend

Vermont is rarely hit by any kind of tropical system.

Visible satellite photo showing Tropical Storm Fay
moving northward just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. 

But when the Green Mountain State is hit by a tropical storm or depression or hurricane, it's pretty much always had news.

In the topsy-turvy year of 2020, though, Tropical Storm Fay, on balance, looks like it will help Vermont much more than it will hurt.

Since Fay is a tropical storm, which are always very wet and windy, the storm will be bad news for some people, though.

WHERE IT'S AT AND GOING

As of 8 a.m this morning, Tropical Storm Fay had top winds of 50 mph, mostly east of its center.It was about 100 miles or so south of the southern tip of New Jersey.

Tropical Storm Fay was northbound as of early this morning, and will continue in that direction as it picks up forward speed. It'll scrape past New Jersey, possibly even making landfall there.  If not, it will come ashore not far from New York City tonight

At this point, forecasts take Tropical Storm Fay up the Hudson River Valley into either eastern New York or western Vermont.  The official 5 a.m. Friday National Hurricane Center forecast track had Fay pretty much sitting right over my house in St. Albans, Vermont at around 2 p.m. Saturday. It will then head into Quebec.

I'm delighted this could happen. So are my gardens.  We welcome the prospect of a potential soaking.

Of course, by the time, Fay hits Vermont or nearby, it will have been downgraded to a tropical depression and it will be starting to transition to a non-tropical system.

If Fay is still at tropical storm strength by the time it hits Vermont, it will only be the fourth tropical storm known to have its center pass over somewhere in the Green Mountain State.

Two of those past tropical systems were devastating and deadly. Tropical Storm Irene killed at least six Vermonters and pretty much tied with 1927 as creating the worst flood in the state's history.

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 also passed through Vermont, causing serious flooding and leveling tracts of forests with its winds. The 1938 storm decimated the maple sugar industry for years afterward.

FAY IS NOT MEAN LIKE THE OTHERS

Fay's effects will be far, far, less serious in Vermont than Irene or the 1938 storm.

Here's why:

1. It's weak, so doesn't have the power to unleash widespread torrential rains or damaging winds.  Wind gusts for almost all of us should stay below 35 mph. A few favored areas, perhaps including some of the western slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts as high as 45 mph.

2. It's fast. Fay will be rocketing northward and will only affect directly affect Vermont for several hours.  It might rain torrentially at times, but the rain won't last long enough to cause serious flooding. Some favored spots might get extra rain, causing local stream flooding, road washouts and urban flooding, but this is certainly no Irene.

3. Vermont is dry. Parts of the state are in a drought. That's why I'm liking Fay so much.  It could put a good dent in the dry conditions we have been having.

The thing I worry about most from Fay is not too much rain, but too little. Forecast tracks for Fay keep pushing it further west.  The heaviest rain with northbound tropical storms in the Northeast is to the west of their track.

If Fay goes up through New York State instead of through Vermont, we could miss out on the heaviest rain.   Right now, forecasts call for one to two inches of rain from Fay in Vermont, with locally higher amounts.

More rain and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday could offer additional help with the dry conditions.

Fay will also help break the heat somewhat.  We have one more hot day today, but the clouds and precipitation with Fay, and another disturbance approaching from the west, will encourage clouds, which will hold daytime temperatures down a little. It will still be miserably humid though, at least into Monday.

Some clouds from Fay will move northward across Vermont this afternoon, and those might actually temper the heat a little in southern  Vermont  It will still be blazing up north, though.

FAY'S EFFECTS ELSEWHERE

It isn't all fun and games with Tropical Storm Fay.  Closer to its landfall, Fay could easily dump enough rain to cause flooding. Flash flood watches are up for New Jersey, western Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, far eastern Pennslyvania  and the Hudson River Valley and surrounding areas from Saratoga Springs south to New York City.

Some of the downpours with Fay are pretty intense.  Ocean City, Maryland had about 1.5 inches of rain in one hour, and 2.75 inches within just two hours, for instance.

Winds along some coastal areas could gust to 55 mph. Coastal flooding is likely to be minor.

Tropical storms like Fay can spin up tornadoes, so some are possible later today and tonight in and near Long Island, New York parts of far southern New England, the  New York City metro area and coastal New Jersey.

Storm Damage Widespread In Vermont; Now The Heat

Severe warned storm on approach to Sheldon, Vermont Wednesday.
The storm toppled trees and power lines in this and other
Vermont towns. 

We had the wildest storm outbreak of the season on Wednesday here in Vermont, with some welcome rains, but also some pretty substantial damage from severe weather.

Most of the damage involved trees and power lines, but siding was damaged on a house in Essex, there were reports of structural damage around Danby, and sidiing damaged by hail the size of ping pong balls in Fair Haven.

The pattern of damage in New England almost exactly matched the area that was under a severe thunderstorm warning.  The warning, and areas of damage were almost exclusively across Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine.

In northern Vermont, the main swath of damage seemed to go on a long track starting in Alburgh and Swanton, continuing to through Sheldon an into eastern Franklin County around Bakersfield and Fairfield. It continued on through eastern Chittenden County,especailly around Essex, Jericho and Bolton, then into the Fayston/Moretown/Waitsfield area in central Vermont.

At least the storms brought some welcome rain.  I was on the edge of the damaging swath that went from Swanton through Sheldon and on into the Bakersfield area.  There was no wind damage on my St. Albans property, but my rain gauge collected a healthy 1.3 inches of rain in less than an hour. I noticed a fair amount of street flooding in downtown St. Albans.

CITIZEN SCIENTISTS HELP

Another view of the severe  thunderstorm in Sheldon, Vermont
on Wednesday 

By the way, the damage reports are a great example of how citizen scientists can help the National Weather Service improve forecasts.

Yesteday was a great example.  NWS meteorologist can't be all over the state, observing ongoing thunderstorms.  

They looked at radar trends with these storms, and issued severe thunderstorm warnings when radar images they were looking at indicated danger in these storms.

If you report damage from a storm to the National Weather Service, it helps verify their forecasts and  improves warnings.

For instance, if a bunch of damage reports come in from an area under a servere thunderstorm warning, that helps meteorologists understand there really is danger if they see similar radar trends in the future.

On the other hand, if a certain radar pattern seems to indicate dangerous storms, but that particular pattern never seems to yield real-life damage reports, then maybe that radar pattern doesn't really reflect threatenin weather.

There are a few general ground rules when reporting storms. First of all, do it only when it's safe. Don't go outside to measure the size of the downed tree if the wind is still blowing a million miles an hour and the hail falling is the size of canned hams, as David Letterman would put it.

When reporting the storm damage, be specific. To the best of your ability, tell the National Weather Service exactly what happened and where, and what time. If you have GPS coordinates great, report those, but most of us don't have that ability.

So report something like this:  "Large tree down on wires at 25 Main Street, Funkytown, Vermont, power is out. Occured at 4:15 p.m. ."  Sending along photos helps.  Don't bother reporting minor damage, like a three inch long dead twig coming off the old maple.

Definitely have a "just the facts ma'am" attitude when reporitng.  Don't complain that the power outage interrupted the season finale of "Real Housewives of Enosburg Falls"

It's probably wise not to telephone the National Weather Service office when they're busy issuing warnings -- too distracting. Call though, if it's an extreme issue, like a tornado touchdown happening in front of you.

I tend to tweet my reports to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. It's @NWSBurlington.   The more citizen reports of legitimate storm danage reported to the NWS the better.

Reporting on storms isn't limited to summer thunderstorms. Also report wind damage, snow, ice, flooding during any season.

ON TO THE FORECAST

As we have been advertising, it's going to be a really hot, oppressive couple of days. Yesterday's storms freshened the air last night, but that's over. Expect high humidity and temeratures in the low 90s both today and Friday.   Tonight will be stuffy for sure.

The weather people are still watching a disturbance that's now near the coast of North Carolina. There's a good chance it will turn into Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Fay.

Wannabe Fay will track northward just off the East Coast, but the devil is in the details.  We know it will affect southern and coastal New England, but that's about it.

It leads to what the National Weather Service in South Burlington calls a tricky weekend forecast for Vermont. Some computer models take Wannabe Fay just off the east coast of New England, or over Providence and Boston.

A few computer models take it inland in New Jersey, then up New York's Hudson River Valley and through Vermont. That path still seems rather unlikely, but would give us a good, benefitical soaking rain.

Remember, even if Wannabe Fay develops into a tropical storm, it won't be a powerhouse in terms of wind  Heavy rain is a threat, not wind.

Meanwhile, another weather disturbance will be approaching from the west. That will dance with either Wannabe Fay or the deep tropical moisture it brings north into New England.

How this plays out is anybody's guess, but at least it gives us a high chance of showers over the weekend.  We certainly could use more rain, even after yesterday's storms.  If the rain is locally torrential, though, there could be a couple spot instances of flash flooding.

Although clouds and showers will keep temperatures below 90 degrees over the weekend, the humidity will still be awful.  Remember, Wannabe Fay is bringing deep tropical air north into New England.

On top of that, once all the showers clear our early next week, we're still definitely at risk for another hot, dry spell late next week.