Brutal Cold To Ease Up, But Dry, Chilly Weather Continues; More Southern Tornado Drama

Bowed but unbroken? Daffodils once again sag after a brutally
cold, subfreezing night in St. Albans, Vermont but it still looks
like they have a shot at reviving when it warms up 

It looks like those Vermont daffodils have a shot of surviving after all.

Last night and this morning were certainly very cold for this time of year, but due to I think two factors, the chill didn't go quite as deep as it could have.

The core of the coldest air from Canada several thousand feet overhead was over northern New England during the day Wednesday. That's why, really amazingly for this time of year, temperatures never did get above freezing in much of the Northeast Kingdom, all day.

Although the air overhead remained incredibly chilly for late April, the coldest of the air had moved off to the northeast by late last night and this morning. That helped keep temperatures at the surface a wee bit milder than they would have.

More importantly, the wind kept going all night. It wasn't strong by any means. But to get the coldest possible temperatures on a clear night, you need light winds or no winds to get the best conditions to radiate heat to outer space.

That didn't happen last night. Temperatures did get into the upper teens in the coldest hollows, and most of us stayed in the 20s. Burlington, I think got down to 29 degrees. Montpelier was 25. Neither were record lows, and it was actually a tad warmer this morning than yesterday morning, which was the opposite of forecasts.

Many of the blooms outside our Vermont doors, because they're such early season specimens, will probably survive what we got last night.  Some things probably didn't make it, but overall, we will have spring after all.

Just not right away. Although it will turn "warmer" than yesterday - how could it possibly be any colder? -- temperatures will remain below normal into next week at least.

The good news is below normal ain't what it used to be.  Normal temperatures continue to rise fast this time of year.  Normal highs are in the mid 40s on April Fools Day and around 60 as the month ends.

Coming up over the next week, there will be a couple days here and there that get into the low and mid 50s. That's really not bad, but still a little on the cool side for late April.

HOW DRY I AM?

One thing I've noticed is, despite the rain showers and frequent unseasonable snows this month, it's a bit dry, particularly in northern Vermont. I noticed the gardens, when not frozen, are a bit dusty.

The dry conditions can raise the risk of brush fires this time of year. All that dead vegetation is dry out there. Sure, last year's leaves, weeds, twigs and such get wet whenever it rains or snows, but things dry out fast this time of year.

That's especially true in Aprils like this one in northern Vermont in which each precipitation event doesn't amount to much. It makes it easier to dry things out. It often get dry readily in Vermont anyway this time of year.   Here's why:

First of all, there's no leaves on the trees yet. That means the sun's heat can go down to the forest floor without being shaded by foliage. That allows things to dry out faster.

Also, when trees are leafed out, they add moisture to the air. There's no leaves yet.  If you make the air more humid, it makes it harder for fires to start and spread.

This time of year, pushes of air from Canada are particularly dry. These airmasses from the Great White North are cold, as we know from experience over the past couple of days.

The April sun is strong, though. That causes air pockets to warm and rise. Something has to replace that air that came up from near the surface, so really, really dry air from up above makes its way to the surface. These updrafts and downdrafts can create some erratic wind gusts, even when the overall weather pattern isn't that blustery.

Today will be a classic example. Temperatures will recover this afternoon well into the 40s.  That's still a good ten degrees cooler than normal, but it's better than yesterday, for sure. The air mass today is really dry, and will get drier as the afternoon sun mixes the air.

A great measure of how dry it is is by looking at the dewpoint temperature. Here's an example: If the actual air temperature is 45 degrees and the dew point is 25 degrees, that means it would have to cool down to 25 degrees to create fog or at least dew or frost on the grass.

The wider the spread between the actual temperature and the dew point, the drier the air is.  Today, a typical Vermont location will see afternoon temperatures of around 45 degrees with a dewpoint within a few degrees either side of zero.

That's super dry, and can easily create conditions to start brush fires. Luckily, we did have that bit of snow and rain yesterday and the day before, so that wetted things down just a little bit. Plus, although winds today might be erratic, they won't be particularly strong. That leaves us with some fire danger today, but not an extreme one.   The driest area seems to be the Champlain Valley.

So please, no outdoor burning today, or any other similarly dry days.  It can easily get out of hand and you don't want that.

It might turn a little wetter as we head into the weekend and next week, especially in southern Vermont, so that might help.

SOUTHERN TORNADO DRAMA

Screen shot of video by storm chaser Pecos Hank as a tornado rips through
the town of Madill, Oklahoma Wednesday.

More tornadoes ripped through the South again yesteraday and overnight.  Reports are that five people have died - three in Texas and two in Oklahoma.

A remarkable string of four tornadic supercell arranged themselves in a tight north to south line in southern Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening, producing some photogenic, but unfortunately destructive tornadoes.  

Click on this link to watch a very wild video by Pecos Hank as he sat pretty much in a tornado that rapidly developed in Madill, Oklahoma. You'll see it wrecking a steel wire plant there. The tornado then moves on, leaving wreckage and a beautiful, sunny late afternoon. (It was even sunny from Pecos Hank's position watching the tornado. Go figure.

An even more remarkable tornadic supercell formed near Austin, Texas and traveled nearly 450 miles to the Louisiana-Mississippi border Wednesday afternoon and evening. That is an incredibly long lasting, durable supercell, especially considering it kept dropping tornadoes along the way.

The worst one was in Unalaska, well north of Houston, where the supercell dropped a powerful tornado that led to three deaths and widespread destruction in town, according to television station KPRC in Houston.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes continued overnight and into this morning in parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

Another round of storms and possible tornadoes are in the forecast for later today, especially in the southern halves of Alabama and Georgia.

Wintry Blast Heading To New England; Southern Tornadoes

Daffodil blooming in my St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
Let's hope this little fella survives temperatures in the low to
mid 20s Wednesday night! 

As expected tornadoes and severe weather rocked the South yesterday, though thankfully this one wasn't as bad as the outbreak a week earlier.

There were several tornadoes, and reports of one particularly large, strong one in Mississippi.

It appears that tornado mostly went through rural and pretty unpopulated areas, so not too many houses got wrecked this time. And thankfully, so far, no deaths have been reported.

It looks like there will be one more threat of some severe weather in the South, midweek, and then there will be a brief break lasting several days, in which there will be relatively few reports of severe weather and tornadoes.  At least that's the way it looks at the moment.

Up here in Vermont, we don't expect anything dramatic like tornadoes, of course. But after an early spring, winter still wants to regain control.  Watch out for wind gusts, and then a hard freeze.

We have another system coming in similar to what we've seen a few times this month already: A very dynamic, energetic disturbance will come in from the west and northwest.  Like the previous systems, recipitation amounts won't be overwhelming at all. Still,  you'll notice the weather on Tuesday.

Out ahead of the storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will blow Tuesday morning, especiall in the Champlain Valley, where winds could go over 40 mph at times.

Crocuses like these blooming in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens
look fragile, but they're pretty tough. We'll see how well they do in
a really hard freeze expected Wednesday night. 

A band of showers, and maybe some thunderstorms will accompany the cold front, which at this point  looks like it will enter western Vermont in the early afternoon and then sweep east.

The front might be energetic enough to set off a few thunderstorms, especially in southern Vermont.  NOAA's Storm Prediction  Center has much of the Northeast in a marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms and that zone extends into the southern half of Vermont.

There might be a few isolated thunderstorms that manage to create damaging wind gusts. In Vermont, if this happens at all, the damaging gusts will be few and far between.

The real story will be the intense cold behind the cold front, at least by April standards. After snow showers dust a few areas Tuesday night, high temperatures Wednesday will stay in the 30s in many northern areas, with a stiff northwest wind. The Champlain Valley and southern Vermont could squeak into the low 40s, but that's a far cry from the mid and upper 50s that are normal for this time of year.

Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to lose some of the early blooms that are out there right now.  Temperatures Wednesday night will bottom out between 15 and 25 degrees, with the teens up in the mountains and colder hollows.

Early flowers like daffodils and crocuses are pretty tough, but early varieties that are blooming now might not fare that well in that level of cold.  The plants themselves will be fine, but the some of the blooming daffodils and other flowers could wilt and die in those temperatures.

It depends upon how hardy yours are, but the prospect of even losing a few is a bit depressing.

Temperatures will kind of, sort of warm up later in the week and into the weekend, but still remain below normal, unfortunately.

No, All These Tornado Outbreaks In The South Are Not Normal

A tornado safety closet that a family huddled in is the only thing
left of a home swept away by a tornado last week in Mississippi.
The family survived. More dangerous tornadoes are expected
today in the same region.

Another outbreak of tornadoes appears likely in the Deep South today, continuing a terrible winter and spring down there of heartbreaking twisters, severe storms and repeated, devastating flooding, all amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Today looks especially bad across the northern half of Louisiana and the southern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area on level 4 of 5 in terms of risk level today.  So it's pretty serious.

Already, as of mid-morning, a tornado watch was up for eastern Texas and western Louisiana, including the Houston metro area. Some straight line wind and hail damage had already been reported in parts of the South as of 10 a.m. It will get worse as we go through the day.

Many of these areas are just coming off a terrible tornado outbreak exactly a week ago, so this is definitely bad news.

A few tornadoes today in this region might once again be especially strong, especially if supercell thunderstorms get going without interference from larger clusters of thunderstorms moving in from the west.

Even that larger cluster of storms from the west wil cause trouble with their own batch of tornadoes, strong winds, hail and flooding rains.

We obviously won't completely know until tomorrow how many tornadoes will form, how big they will be and whether they hit any heavily populated areas. But once again, people in the Deep South are hunkering down and praying the tornadoes miss their houses.

We are heading into the peak of tornado seasons and April tornadoes are rather normal, especially in the southeastern quarter of the United States.  Yes, tornadoes are normal, but the number of them this year, and the deaths they are causing, is anything but normal.

It turns out the tornado outbreak last Sunday and Monday yielded 132 twisters, which is a huge number for two days of severe weather.  Preliminary research indicates this is tied for the fifth-most numher of tornadoes in a two day outbreak on record in the United States.

The tie is with an April 15-16, 2011 southeastern United States outbreak. The record biggest outbreak for two days was 271 on April 26-27, 2011. So you can see 2011 was the benchmark for a horrendous tornado season, and one we don't want to repeat.

In addition to the tornado risk, flooding is a big concern in the Deep South, as it has been frequently for months now. Potentially life threatening areas of flash flooding are expected today in the same areas with the greatest tornado risk.

Not good.

The weather pattern will remain bad in the South in the upcoming week or more. Severe weather threats look like they will ramp up again Wednesday, then after, that, probably next weekend.

Rinse And Repeat: Wintry Threats Continue North, Severe Weather South

A snow shower is seen dumping a quick burst of snow west
of St. Albans, Vermont last evening. Similar conditions are
expected today in Vermont 

As if there isn't enough out there to keep most of us unhappy, the weather pattern is also stuck in a way that gives many of us little to cheer about.

A winter storm is creating a narrow stripe of rather heavy snow from Wyoming to Illinois, and that stripe of snow will eventually extend all the way to southern and central New England by Friday night and Saturday morning.  

Meanwhile, in the South, another severe weather and tornado risk looks like it will appear Sunday, and chnces are high that there will be couple more severe weather threats afrer that in the same region after that.

Up here in Vermont, there was still a dusting of snow on the ground in my yard in St. Albans from last evening and it was definitely cold out, with frost adding more winter to that bit of snow.]

That evening snow was caused by a reinforcing shot of cold air from Canada.  The band of snow was in far southern Vermont and northwestern Massachusetts this morning, causing slick roads in a few spots down there

Today in Vermont will look a lot like yesterday, especially in the northern half of the state. We'll have what I call self-destructing sunshine this morning. That sun will warm the atmosphere, but there's a pool of very cold air aloft.

The warm sun will cause updrafts, causing clouds to form and pile up, obscuring the sun for the most part. Between remaining breaks of sun this afternoon and early evening, those clouds will produce another round of snow showers.

Luckily, the air near the Earth's surface is dry, so much of the snow will evaporate on the way down. Still, many of those snow showers will have enough oomph to give many of us another dusting of snow. Nothing consequential, but also nothing you want to see this time of year.

Meanwhile, a pretty compact but vigorous storm is starting to zip west to east across the middle of the country,  laying down that stripe of snow in the Midwest. Southern Iowa not far from the Missouri border, is expected up to a foot of snow out of this.

That's an awful lot for that area of the nation for mid-April.

The storm will weaken a little, temporarily, but still have enough power to dump a few inches of snow Friday night and early Saturday in southern and central New England away from the coast.

In Vermont, up to three or four inches of snow could pile up Friday night in the mountains east of Bennington.  Further north toward Rutland, at this point it looks like a dusting to an inch, with little or nothing further north

After a brief sorta, kinda warmup on Sunday, it'll go back down to below normal temperatures in New England next week. The Midwest will warm up, but nope, not us!

SOUTHERN STORMS

The South is still reeling from those tornadoes and severe storms Sunday and Monday.  According to the National Weather Service eastern region, a total of 105 tornadoes from April 12-13 have been confired.

Tornadoes touched down in ten states, and if you added up the miles each one traveled, you'd get a total of 771.86 miles. If you combined all those tornadoes into one tornado track, it would extend from about Louisville, Kentucky to Burlington, Vermont.

The weekend tornadoes killed perhaps 30 people, and more than 60 Americans have lost their lives to tornadoes so far this year. If nobody else dies in a tornado this year, (which would be nice) this would still be the deadliest tornado year since 2012, notes the Weather Channel.

There might well be more tornadoes, severe storms and flooding on the way to the South this Sunday.  The expected rough weather won't be as extreme, or cover as big an area as last weekend, but people from Texas to Georgia better watch it on Sunday,  and toward the east on Monday.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is already forecasting a few tornadoes and severe storms for that tie period.

The weather pattern is favoring pretty strong storms riding east from California through the South or south-central United States.  Two more storms are forecast to take relatively similar paths next week, which could again threaten the South with more tornadoes.

That Tornado Outbreak Killed 30 People; Major, Sometimes Weird Destruction

Just a slab is left of this house in Mississippi after this weekend's tornadoes,
and nobody is sure where it or its debris ended up. Photo by
Steven Macleroy, @SMacleroy on Twitter.

The weather system that caused all those tornadoes across the South has largely moved on, but people will still be picking up the pieces of this for a long time.

At last count, at least 30 people died in these tornadoes in the past couple of days.

There are at least 70 preliminary reports of tornadoes from this outbreak, and some of them were exceptionally strong. That accounts for the high death toll.

As in all major tornadoes, the damage can be extreme and very weird.  Three people were killed in a Mississippi cafe, where the only thing left was a concrete slab and debris piled up against fallen trees a few dozen feet away.

Another Mississippi house was also gone, with just a foundation and some floor boards. Drone footage taken at the scene appeared to show almost no debris around the house. I asked photographer Steven Macleroy, @SMacleroy on Twitter what he saw:

"We are not sure where any of that house ended up. There was very little that the homeowner's brother could find. The homeowner actually lives in Louisiana. Thankfully he and his family were not there."

Thankfully, indeed.  My guess is the house just got bodily sucked up into the tornado, pulverized in the air and rained down as small pieces of debris miles away.  Radar did show debris from this tornado nearly 30,000 feet in the air.

And Alabama meteorologist James Spann said a photograph that landed near Tuscaloosa, Alabama came from a tornado-destroyed house 120 miles away in Mississippi.  Another house in Mississippi had its house and most of its walls torn down, but a freshly baked cake in a glass container sat untouched on an island counter in the middle of what was left of the kitchen.

Some severe thunderstorms will linger in northern Florida today and perhaps tomorrow, but there are no new big tornado outbreaks in the immediate forecast.

Still, there has already been more than 60 tornado deaths in the United States, just a smidge under average for an entire year.  This is shaping up to be the worst yeaer for tornadoes since the epic year of 2011, which saw more than 500 tornado deaths.

We are still in the early parts of tornado season, with May usually being the worst month. Which means more outbreaks are likely.  We just don't know when, where and how bad.  You want tornadoes to hit open areas with little population, but as we saw in the South over the past couple days, that's more often than not impossible.

Videos:

Many of the areas hit by the strong tornadoes on Easter have a lot of mobile homes, which are especially dangerous in twisters. This aerial view includes some shots of just brown rectangles in the landscape. That's where mobile homes were. In some cases, where they are now is anybody's guess:



This video by Gage Shaw demonstrates one of many reasons why tornadoes in the Deep South are often more dangerous than a lot of twisters in the Great Plains.

In this video, the mile-wide EF-4, powerful tornado is in there. You have to know what you're looking for. Look carefully and you can see the back edge of the massive tornado in the video.

Around 2:00 into the video, the tornado is relatively apparent, but is barely visible, but just as strong, a minute later:





Here, a house in Georgia was bodily moved from its perch atop a small hill, perhaps 100 feet to a spot in the middle of the road:

Death Toll Rising In Latest Tornado Outbreak

Huge tornado near Soso, Mississippi Sunday. Photo via
Twitter, @ConnorWx

As of early this morning, at least 18 people have died in that long anticipated tornado outbreak in the South, and things were still very rough as dawn broke Monday.

As of around 7 a.m. this morning, a destructive, very long squall line stretching from Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia and the Florida panhandle was unleashing dangerous thunderstorrms with embedded tornadoes.

That risk will continue there until the squall line moves off the coast later this morning.  Another line of severe thunderstorms, and maybe a few tornadoes, might form toward noon or early afternoon, we'll see.

The death toll was rising this morning and I worry it will continue to do so. The 18 deaths would mean 51 people have died in tornadoes in the United States so far this year, and we haven't even hit the peak of the severe weather season yet.  On average 69 peopl lose their lives to U.S. tornadoes annually.

Just looking at the radar images yesterday last evening was terrifying enough. Judging from those images, two strong tornadoes, one following the other by less than an hour, too parallel paths through the Soso, Mississippi area.

Those radar images showed pieces of debris thrown 30,000 feet into the air, then raining down over a 60-mile radius. Soso appears to have been in the path of a monstrous supercell thunderstorm that dropped a string of tornadoes across southeastern Mississippi.

Other destructive tornadoes caused lots of damage around Monroe, Louisiana and near Chattanooga, Tennessee. The Weather Channel said five people were killed when a tornado struck a mobile home park near the Tennessee-Georgia border.

The storms then continued into northern Georgia. Radar picked up what appeared to be a tornado passing within about a mile of Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.

The orange stripe  uo usee on this map is from
early this morning. The orange stripe is all
severe thunderstorm warnings. The red
spots are tornado warnings. 

Flooding was widespread as well, with all of northern Alabama under a flood warning this morning. Flash flooding was occuring across the central and southern Appalachians, with reports of downtown Roanoke, Virginia under water.

Once that squall line goes offshore, the action shifts to the Great Lakes and Northeast during the day today. No tornadoes are expected up in places like New England,   but forecasts for strong winds still hold.

High wind warnings and wind advisories cover most of the nation east of the Mississippi River except for parts of Florida, northern and central Vermont, and parts of New Hampshire. Even in those areas without advisories, winds will be strong enough to knock over a few trees and power lines.

As you can tell, this powerful storm behaved as expected, which is too bad.  I think every meteorologist out there would have preferred a forecast bust.

However, I'm sure days of alerts and warnings leading right up to the severe weather saved lives, since people were made aware of the danger before it hit.

Weather will always throw a few curves and surprises at us, but forecasting continues ot improve. This storm was a great example of some spot-on predictions.

Video:

An overview news report helps capture the extent of at least part of this outbreak:

Storm Update: Today Still Looks Dangerous South; East Coast Danger Monday

Opening salvo: Huge hail in Del Rio,
Texas Saturday.  Tornadoes, high winds,
floods, etc are risks in the South
and East today and Monday. 

We're getting into the thick of the storm in the Deep South this morning and it will only get worse as the day wears on.

As expected, it started in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas yesterday, mostly with scattered reports of huge hail.  One supercell crossed the border from Mexico into Del Rio, Texas, throwing hail almost the size of grapefruit  down on that city last night. Baseball sized hail blasted a few towns in Kansas.

Tornado warnings were already flying this morning in northeastern Texas. This is the beginning of several waves of thunderstorms going across the Deep South this morning.

All of these storms will be dangerous, but forecasters are in particular watching central and southern Mississippi early this afternoon. There, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, supercells are expected to develop, the move across Alabama later in the afternoon and Georgia toward evening.

These are the storms that are most likely to set off strong, especially dangerous long lasting tornadoes. It's not certain whether these strong tornadoes will actually happen. But there is that risk.

Amid all this,  torrential rains and flooding are a very good bet across much of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There's going to be a lot of damage and heartache in the South this Easter Sunday, unfortunately.

It's now becoming apparent Monday won't be that much better. The rough weather will have ended in the Deep South, but there will be trouble along the entire East Coast from Maine to Florida.

Severe thunderstorms are likely with a risk of tornadoes, will run from Pennsylvania to Florida, with the highest risk of stronger, longer lasting twisters in Virginia and the Carolinas, along with southeastern Georgia.  There's a chance that some of the Carolina tornadoes could be as bad, or nearly as bad as the ones expected in the Deep South today.

Even in pretty big severe weather outbreaks like this, most people in the affected zone will come out of this fine with little or no property damage. But people need to be weather aware in these zones, so if they are unlucky enough to be in the target of a severe storm or tornado, they can take cover.

In New England, there will be few if any severe thunderstorms, but strong, damaging winds will come through. Wind gusts could easily reach 70 mph in the New York City metro area and in the southern half of New England.

Further west, gusts in the 70 mph range are also expected in western New York. These kinds of winds will bring down lots of trees and power lines in heavily populated areas.  There's going to be a lot of power outages, and probably more than a few houses and buildings smushed by falling trees.

Southwest winds will be so strong that Lake Erie will tilt, with water piling up on the northeast corner of the lake near Buffalo.  Water levels will fall as much as seven feet on the western end of the lake, and rise by at least five feet near Buffalo. Battering waves will make things worse.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Vermont will be a relative island of calm amid all this but that doesn't mean we'll avoid trouble. While the highest winds will probably go by to our west and east, we will still get strong gusty winds.

Ahead of the powerful storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will strike especially the Champlain Valley. We'll all get a pretty good slug of rain, with still a risk of some flooding up in the Northeast Kingdom.

When the cold front sweeps through in the afternoon, we'll get heavier, but relatively brief downpours, with maybe some scattered thunderstorms embedded.

The worst winds will come in right after the cold front. In Vermont, many places will have winds gusting to near 50 mph.  That's enough to topple some trees, especially since the soil is wet and loose this time of year, and with all the rain expected Monday. Branches and power lines could go, too, so be ready for that!

Things will calm down somewhat by Tuesday. It'll still be kind of windy on Tuesday, but not gusty enough to cause more problems.

Here's a video of the hail in Del Rio, Texas. I like the comment from someone in the video, "Insurance adjusters, beware." Indeed!

Tornado And Severe Weather Threat Still Big Risk In South

The question of the weekend in the Deep South is where there
be more of these types of highly visible but also highly
destructive tornadoes, or.....

Meteorologists around the nation, but especially in the Deep South are still watching what could be a terrible severe weather outbreak unfold this weekend.

Not to be glib in a situation like this, but it's an April classic, at least as the overall weather set up is.

A strong - and strengthening storm will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday.  There's going to be another snowstorm on its northwest flank from the central Plains up into Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

Strong, destructive winds and shoreline flooding are forecast for most of the Great Lakes.

But the real, most worrisome situation is the threat for tornadoes, some maybe long lasting and strong, especially Sunday. As readers of this blog thingy know, forecasters have been watching this situation for days now, and there are no signs so far that anybody can rest easy.

The first hint of trouble came Friday with a swarm of supercell thunderstorms in western Texas that produced some gigantic hail stones, as loud and enthusiastic storm chaser Reed Timmer discovered.

The trouble will begin to really blossom today. as most of Texas and a large chunk of Oklahoma fall under a severe storm threat. Tornadoes and destructive straight line winds are real threats today, but large hail is once again the predominant hazard today and tonight in this area.

The Sunday threat covers a huge area from eastern Texas to the Carolinas and from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio River.  The main bullseye for the worst of it continues to look like it will be Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, at least as things stand now.

The question is not whether severe weather develops, it's what form it will take. The worst way it could develop if a bunch of rotating supercells form, with each one being on its own, not part of any squall lines.

If that happens, you get these wide, long lasting and intense tornadoes that cause the most extreme damage, and are the most life-threatening since they are so strong.

....or something like this not quite as strong, but still dangerous
and also hard to see coming rain-wrapped spinup tornadoes 

Things could instead develop into messy lines and cluster of thunderstorms. That's still really bad, because there would be embedded tornadoes and very serious straight line winds.

But most of the time, the tornadoes in this scenario, while still extremely dangerous, are not the high end super bad ones you get with those more isolated supercells I talked about above.

The tornadoes in these "messy" clusters have their own hazard, however. These are usually hidden within curtains of rain. Human nature sometimes prompts people to look for the tornado that's threatening them before taking shelter. Usually, you can't see this type of tornado coming.

Though there are guesses, I don't think anyone really knows how this will develop until it gets going. There will probably be those messy lines and clusters of storms, and discreet, big tornado ones,  but nobody is sure which style will predominate.

Some of the same areas most at risk for tornadoes and damaging winds also have a substantial flood risk.  At last check, most of Tenneessee and the northern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia in particular are under the gun for heavy downpours and flash floods on Sunday.

It's already been a tremendously wet year in these areas and the expected three to six inches of rain Sunday and Sunday night will only trigger more flooding.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Here in Vermont, there will certainly be no tornadoes, but the storm will give us a few problems, albeit minor compared to what will go on in the South.

The storm will bring a quick slug of fairly heavy rain through on Monday. The National Weather Service is foreasting perhaps a half inch to an inch of rain.

That doesn't make me too frightened about any flooding, but we'll have to watch the Northeast Kingdom.  The mid elevations and mountains got quite a bit of snow from that last storm Thursday night and Friday. Averill, way up in the northeast corner of the state, got a foot of snow out of that one.

The lingering snow, and snow from previous storms on the mountains in the Northeast Kingdom, will do a lot of melting amid the rains coming up Monday, so there is the risk of some high water. They'll need to watch the flood prone Passumpsic River for this one.

The big story in and near Vermont with this one will be the wind. There will be gusts over 40 mph ahead of the cold front Monday morning and early afternoon.  Once the cold front passes, the winds will really crank, especially in northern New York, the northern Champlain Valley, and I think eastern slopes of the Green Mountains.

Winds could easily be strong enough to damage trees and power lines Monday, so we should keep that in mind.

Rinse And Repeat From Last Week, With A Welcome Difference

Snow covered trees in St. Albans, Vermont last weekend. More wintry
weather is due later in the week, but nothing like the storm
we had last Friday.

The weather maps and forecasts looks an awful lot like they did about this time last week, when we here in Vermont were getting ready for a blasting from  \the biggest winter storm of the winter.

As you know, the much of the state basically shut down last Friday amid ice and blizzard-like conditions.

As the storm gathered, floods and tornadoes spun up in the South, and the system organized itself for a rampaging trip toward New England.

This  current Tuesday morning, heavy rains and extensive flooding is hitting the South, and a storm is forecast to organize and head toward New England by Thursday. Sound familiar?

Before you panic, though, this next one won't be nearly as bad as last week's. There's a few differences this time that will prevent the storm from turning into a New England monster.

Still, expect some more snow, and maybe some ice on Thursday.

Just like last week, there a couple waves to this storm.  The first, the one that helped produce very heavy rain in the South Monday, will skirt by southern New England as a weak system today.  Here in Vermont, this will cause nothing more than a few areas of sprinkles, wet snow flakes and drizzle, mostly south and east.

This weak little storm will blow up into a huge monster, but not until it gets up by Newfoundland and out into the North Atlantic.  By then, it will be a hurricane-force of nature. But it won't be our problem, since it will be about 1,500 past us by the time it gets to be this enormous powerhouse.

We won't be so lucky in avoiding storm wave number 2 this week. But there are things working against this next one that will prevent a big blow for us. At this point, it looks like a sort of meh, mid sized storm for New England on Thursday. It will rocket through New England and never have a chance to tap deep Atlantic moisture or organize itself into a strong storm.

The forecast is subject to change, but at this point, it looks like we're in for a few inches of snow, with maybe some sleet and freezing rain thrown in, especially across the southern half of Vermont.

The way this winter is going, we can hardly get through any storms without a mix, can we?

Very much like last week's storm, a pretty strong push of Arctic air will blast into New England behind it. If anything, the next blast of frigid air will be even colder than what came through last weekend.

However, just like the last time, the Arctic blast will be brief. It'll get wicked cold Thursday night and stay that way through midday Saturday.  Then temperatures will creep up again, and start flirting or surpassing the freezing mark by next Sunday afternoon.

The bottom line: Get ready for plenty more wintry weather, but it's definitely nothing to panic over.

Tornado Outbreak Kills 3, Causes Huge Damage, And Alters Storm Forecast In Northeast.

A tornado destroyed this school Monday in Alexandria, Louisiana
Image from KALB

Monday's tornado outbreak in the South killed at least three people and caused millions of dollars in property damage.  But as they always say, it could have been worse.

Warnings were excellent as the powerful tornadoes moved through, and those warnings saved lives.

One such example was in Alexandria, Louisiana, which was in the path of a strong tornado with a long track of 63 miles.  In that path was the Hope Baptists School and Church, where 18 kids and their teachers were in classrooms as the storm approached.

According to television station KALB, teachers in the school received phone alerts of the approaching tornado.  The teachers hustled the children to a safer church sanctuary next door. Moments later, the school collapsed in the tornado. The sanctuary was also badly damaged, but everybody was by then hiding in protected corners of the building.

The complex was destroyed, but nobody was hurt. Just after the tornado, emergency responders  took the kids to a nearby, undamaged building where parents picked them up.

Not everyone was so lucky. A husband and wife in Town Creek, Alabama were killed by a tornado and several others hurt, according to the Weather Channel, citing an Associated Press report. 

So far, there are 37 reports of preliminary reports of tornadoes in the Deep South.

There is a history of terrible December tornadoes in the South.  A twister hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on December 16, 2000, killing 16 people. Several rounds of southern tornadoes in December, 2015 killed 20 people.  The deadliest December tornado on record killed 38 people in Vicksburg, Missisippi on December 5, 1953.  (That was the end of a terrible tornado year in which powerful tornadoes killed hundreds of people in Texas, Michigan and Massachusetts.)

The large number of tornadoes and violent thunderstorms Monday pumped a lot of latent heat into the atmosphere, which has helped pump up a high pressure ridge off the East Coast. That is affecting the snow and ice storm hitting the Northeast today.

It doesn't change the forecast much for the northern two thirds of Vermont (One to three inches north, three to five inches of snow south).  But the extra heat and moisture in the atmosphere might boost snow totals in southern Vermont and New Hampshire up to or even beyond six inches.

And that extra heat floating around as a "gift" from yesterday's thunderstorms are creating   more favorable conditions for a lot of freezing rain in parts of southern New England, New York, New Jersey and Pensylvania. It was already a total mess in these areas early this morning.

Here's a video of a close miss tornado to the video maker's house. Her name is Heather Welch. Early on in the video you can see large debris falling and trees toppling as the twister made its closest approach to the camera person.

I probably would not have been standing under those trees. When a tornado just passes, you get something called a rear flank downdraft, which can contain powerful winds that would easily topple trees and cause additonal damage, even away from the tornado's direct path:



Another large tornado near Bogue Chitto, Mississippi:



This aftermath video of the Hope Baptist School in ??? is scary because of what could have happened to all the kids inside. Video shows the destruction and children being evacuated:

Tornado Week Continues In U.S.; Update On Vermont/New England Flood Threat

Lots of  tornado damage in Franklin, Texas Saturday

As expected, Saturday was a bad day in the United States for severe weather and tornadoes, with reports of three deaths, many injuries and much destruction across the South. And there's a lot more to come.

Up here in Vermont, the (less) rough weather will take the form of rain, possibly thunder and almost definitely some flooding. I'll get into that further down in this post.

Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi took the brunt of the storms Saturday. As expected, there were at least a couple very strong, long-tracked tornadoes. Tragically, two children died in one of the storms in Texas when a tree fell on their car.

The town of Franklin, Texas was trashed by an EF-3 tornado, where many homes were damaged or destroyed. The town of Alto, Texas was hit by two tornadoes that struck about 90 minutes apart from each other.

There's a couple videos of the tornadoes and damage in the south at the bottom of this post

Today, the severe weather threat has shifted to the the central Appalachians and the Southeast. 

There is a tornado watch this morning in Alabama and Georgia and there have been reports of some tornado damage this morning in this region, especially in Troy, Alabama.

This afternoon the area that seems to be under the greatest risk of severe weather seems to be around West Virginia, eastern Ohio, much of Pennslvania, and down into western Virginia and western North Carolina.

Most of the danger from today's severe weather will be from damaging straight-line winds in the thunderstorms. However, a few tornadoes could also spin up in this region.

The nation will get a brief break from the severe storms and tornadoes Monday and Tuesday, but another strong storm, this one rather slow moving, will really ramp up the threat Wednesday through Friday. 

It's always hard if not impossible to pinpoint the seriousness and exact location of severe weather events days in advance. At the moment, Wednesday looks like a potentially dangerous day in the Mississippi Valley from about Iowa south. Thursday seems risky in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and then the Southeast gets targeted again Friday.

So far this year, it has not been a super busy tornado season in the United States, but it has been worse than the past four years or so, which had fewer than average tornadoes and tornado deaths.

It seems the nation's relative tornado drought is over.

VERMONT FLOODING?

Burlington, Vermont on Saturday reached a high temperature of 72 degrees, the first reading in the 70s since October 11, 2018

The warm weather got the mountain snow melting pretty fast, and river levels have gone up. This morning, there was already a flood warning for the Barton River, around Coventry up in the Northeast Kingdom.

This, and it hasn't even started raining yet.

Skies in northern Vermont were crystal clear earlier this Sunday morning, but that is changing fast. Forecasts have been very consistent about the amount of rain expected.  It'll be around an inch, with the "drier" spots getting perhaps three quarters of an inch and the wetter areas receiving around 1.25 inches or so.

Of course, the snow will keep melting off the mountains into already relatively high running rivers, so the forecast is the same as I mentioned yesterday: There probably will be a lot of locations in Vermont with flooding. Flood watches are obviously still in effect. 

The rainfall will wax and wane from late this afternoon through Monday, but many of us will have a couple periods of heavier rain. A thunderstorm or two might even mix in over night. The short, sharp bursts of heavier precipitation would help get small streams and creeks flooding pretty quickly overnight and Monday.

The state's larger rivers will rise overnight and Monday. For the most part, they'll crest Monday afternoon and the first part of Monday night.

Most of the flooding will be minor, but still needs to be taken seriously. People have this habit of driving into flood waters, thinking they can make it through. I hammer this home every time there's a flood threat. Don't be stupid and go around barriers put up to block roads that are flooded.

Just deal with the time and inconvenience of doing a detour. It's totally worth it.

After a brief cool and breezy interlude Tuesday, it will warm up again, then turn rainy again by the end of the week. If that end of the week rain proves to be heavy (it might) that would renew the flood threat.

Some video:

This is a video of the storm that caused the devastating tornado in Franklin, Texas. The tornado is probably in the middle of the view in this video. I'm showing it to prove that it's often impossible to see a tornado coming, especially if it's wrapped in rain:



A couple describe the tornado that destroyed their home. As they talk, a couple of puppies are still lost in the rubble. Spoiler: It has a happy ending:

Tornado Risk Today And Coming Week In South; Flood Concerns Here In Vermont

Tornadoes, some possibly strong, are expectd in the South today,
especially in the red-colored area. The threat spreads east and north
on Sunday.

As advertised, today looks like a dangerous day in parts of the South, especially in Louisiana and adjacent parts of Mississippi, southern Arkansas and eastern Texas.

Here in Vermont, spring appears to have finally sprung, but that brings some flood risks. I'll get to that after we deal with the bigger weather news of the day.

The focus today is on the Gulf Coast. As of now, the table looks set for a tornado outbreak in this region. Some of the tornadoes look like they will be strong and stay on the ground for long periods of time.

It's always possible that there could be pleasant surprise and the atmosphere might not line up perfectly for severe storms and tornadoes. But most forecasters are pessimistic.

Already, early this morning, an intial band of thunderstorms, some severe, were heading north through northern Louisiana. Once they clear out, that will set the stage for even worse storms later today.

A tornado watch was already up early today in southwestern Texas. At least one supercell thunderstorm was already roaming that region before dawn, which gives you an idea how much potential there is for trouble.

The energy helping to produce those storms is heading northeast.  Most of the ingredients for a lot of tornadoes are setting up in Louisiana. The air is unstable. The sun will heat the atmosphere and worsen that instability.

Strong winds will blow overhead, and those winds will change direction with height. Let's just hope the bigger tornadoes that do develop stay out in open country and not through any bigger towns.

Tomorrow, the risk of severe weather and tornadoes moves east and expands to a broad area mostly along the Appalachians from Pennsylvania to Florida. High winds, hail and tornadoes are all possible in this area, especially in parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast.

The bottom line is that a large chunk of the southern United States better have their weather radios close at hand, and have a plan to get to a safe spot if a tornado warning is issued.

Normally the rule is, if there's a tornado watch, that means twisters are possible, and you should continue your routine but keep a sharp ear out for any warnings. A tornado warning means a twister has been spotted or indicated on radar, and you'd better get to a safe shelter, pronto.

With the risk of larger tornadoes this weekend, I'd advise people who live in less-sturdy mobile homes or manufactured homes, especially those that aren't tied down correctly, to take an even more cautious plan.

People who live in this type of house ought to play it safe and leave even if there's "just" a tornado watch. Just hang out at a friend's house, a friend who lives in a home with a very good storm shelter or secure basement.

The risk of severe storms and tornadoes will continue much of this week. After a lull on Monday and possibly Tuesday, another strong storm system looks poised to spin up more tornadoes across the South and middle of the nation Wednesday and Thursdays.

The parent storms that are spinning up these tornadoes will affect us here in Vermont. Not with tornadoes, which is a good thing, but with possible flooding. Details follow:

VERMONT RAIN

This motorist was tempted to take his
chances crossing a flooded stretch of
road during spring flooding in April, 2015
near Enosburg. He saw me filming and
decided he didn't want to be part of an
embarrassing YouTube video. He
wisely decided to turn around
rather than proceed.

It was gloriously the first truly spring morning outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont when I took the dogs out early this morning.

Temperatures were in the 50s, birds were singing like crazy and there was that delicious organic aroma in the air of springtime mud and new growth.  Tiny daffodil shoots shot up a couple inches more overnight.

A cold front was also making its way through Vermont, but since it's not a strong front, and we're starting off so warm, today will be the mildest day so far this year.

While highs in the 60s to a few 70s in the southern Champlin Valley and lower Connecticut River valley are not unusual for mid-April, they sure are welcome.

This warmth is now eroding and melting the deep snow pack still in the mountains. Next up, the storm that will produce the weekend tornadoes in the South is heading in our direction.

Rain will break out Sunday afternoon and continue well into Monday.  Rivers will be rising a bit even before it starts raining because of today's warmth. Add an inch or so of rain with the upcoming storm and more melting snow, and you'll have some flooding problems.

Which is why the National Weather Service has issued flood watches for Vermont and adjacent New York from Sunday night into Tuesday. 

I'll let the National Weather Service in South Burlington do the talking for a bit here. According to their hydrology discussion this morning:

"Some of the more susceptible basins include the Ausable, Missisquo, Passumpsic, Otter Creek, Winooski, Lamoille and possibly the Mad River. Sharp river rises are likely beginning Monday. Most main stem rivers are expected to crest during the day Monday based on current indications. Any mountain streams or small rivers will be very susceptible as well, especially Sunday night into Monday."

In other words, this is going to be a statewide problem.  In a few spots, the flooding might be had enough to force evacuations. We'll see. If told by emergency managers to get out because of flooding, absolutely do so!

One of the biggest and most persistent risks in flooding are those people who insist on trying to drive over flooded roads. Don't. Especially don't be one of those morons that drive around barriers put up because of the flooding.  This type of idiot then gets stuck, putting themselves and their rescuers at risk.

By the way, this time of year, flood waters are obviously very cold. If you get stuck in the water, hypothermia sets in wicked fast.

The next storm late in the week, the one that will bring that second round of tornadoes to the South Wednesday and Thursday, also looks like it will come toward New England. It's too soon to say how  that will affect things, but there's the risk of some more moderate to heavy rains with that one. If it does rain hard with the second storm, there could be a renewed flood threat.

Yes, Blizzard Storm In Plains Is Bad. Next Storm Could Be Worse

Lots of colors on the National Weather Service map, especially in the
northern Plains means lots of weather alerts. The red area is under
a blizzard warning. An active weather pattern over the next
week means there will be plenty of other weather warnings
and advisories in different parts of the nation.

As expected, a blizzard is striking a broad area from Colorado to Minnesota today, closing roads, worsening flooding and generally just being dangerous and highly unwelcome.

This might not be the worst of it. A new storm expected to start forming in Texas Satureday is likely to cause more trouble from the Gulf Coast to New England.

Unlike the current storm, the next one is poised to bring a lot more in terms of severe storms and tornadoes to the South. It also poses something of a flood threat in northern New England.

The storm now pounding the northern and central Plains isn't set up to create much in the way of severe storms on its southern flank. That's a bit unusual for such a strong storm, but it is fortunate.

There were some reports of large hail and gusty winds in and around Kansas last night, and there might be some strong wind gusts with thunderstorms today in and around Illinois, but this won't be a blockbuster severe weather outbreak.

That's not to minimize the effects of this storm. It's serious, and will cause a lot of additional flooding, especially when the up to two feet of snow expected to accumulate in some parts of South Dakota and Minnesota melt this weekend and next week. Rivers in this region were already flooding before this storm, so ---- not good.

Then there's the next storm.

Areas in yellow and orange are being watched for the risk of
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms Saturday.

It's always hard to pinpoint well in advance if a weather system will cause a lot of severe weather and tornadoes, but the new storm forecast to form in Texas and move northeastward toward New England over the weekend has forecasters nervous.

There's at least the potential that rotating storms will form well east of the storm's cold front. That could mean a dangerous tornado outbreak in the Deep South Saturday and Sunday.

Of course, severe weather forecasting is tricky. The South might get lucky and escape a widespread outbreak of tornadoes, but this is perhaps the highest potential for dangerous weather we've seen so far this spring.

Tornado outbreaks can be more dangerous in the South than in the Plains, by the way. More people live in mobile homes in the South than in the Plains, and manufactured homes are more dangerous in tornadoes that more rigid buildings. The South is more populated than the Plains, so tornadoes have more targets.

Many people make the mistake of looking for the approaching tornado when they get a warning rather than immediately taking shelter. In the South, tornadoes are more likely to be wrapped in heavy rain and thus invisible, compared to storms further west. Plus, there's lots of trees in the South, which blocks the view of approaching dangers.

VERMONT/NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS

Certainly there are no tornadoes in the Vermont and New England forecast anytime in the near future, but this weekend storm does pose potential trouble.

Let's break it down:

The giant storm now striking the upper Midwest will move into Canada by Friday night and drag a weakening cold front through Vermont later Friday night or early Saturday. This will just drop perhaps a quarter inch of rain, which isn't that big a deal.

There's not much in the way of cold air immediately behind the cold front, so Saturday will probably be the warmest day so far this year. Temperatures will probably get into the 60s for many of us.

The light rain Friday night and the warm temperatures Saturday night will "prime the pump" so to speak. Deep mountain snow will start to really melt, and elevate river levels.

Then the storm from the South comes in Sunday night and Monday and it will drag a lot of moisture up with it. We could get an inch or even more of rain out of this and the snow in the mountains will continue to melt.

That means we have our first real threat of the spring that rivers could go over their banks. Nobody is sure how serious the flooding will be or even if we will get any. Just note that roads and properties in flood plains could go under water Monday and Tuesday, so plan accordingly.

This won't be a Hurricane Irene style flood, if it occurs, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Beyond Tuesday, the weather pattern looks very active for the next two weeks, with the potential for frequent rain storms. If that comes to pass, we'll have to watch Lake Champlain. Water levels in the lake are currently rising, like they do every spring.

As of this morning, the lake level was at 98.31 feet above sea level. Flood stage is 100 feet. Lake flooding starts to get damaging at around 101 feet, and there is the potential the lake could get that high in the coming weeks.

Again, it might or might not happen. And it won't be as bad as the devastation of 2011. But if you have lakeshore property, it's time to start preparing for possible flooding.

Worry Grows Over Possible New Tornado Outbreak Today

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, this area
is at risk of tornadoes today. The yellow area is most
at risk for the twisters, and some of them might be strong.
The percentages are the chance of a tornado hitting
within a 25 mile radius of any given point in that area.

The start of the nation's tornado season has already been too tragic, with the 23 deaths from twisters i Alabama last Sunday.

Today is another potentially dangerous day, with a risk of tornadoes, again some possibly strong in the lower Mississippi Valley.

Before dawn, severe thunderstorms had already fired up from southwestern Missouri to northern Texas. Some storms with large hail were bombarding the Dallas-Fort Worth area early this morning.

As these storms move east, they'll only grow. Or, new rotating supercell thunderstorms will form, and those are the ones that could turn dangerous by this afternoon.

Based on data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center,  the area under the greatest risk for tornadoes, again some potentially strong, goes from extreme southern Illinois and extreme southeastern Missouri, down through the western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee and into northern Mississippi.

The risk of strong tornadoes is what's got everybody worried. Most tornadoes are relatively weak in the grand scheme of things. Tornado ratings are under something called the Enhanced Fujita, or EF scale. Most tornadoes are EFO, wth 65 to 85 mph winds, or EF1, with winds of 86 to 110 mph and EF2, with winds of up to 135 mph.

These types of tornadoes can cause a lot of damage, are dangerous and sometimes deadly. But most people who hide in windowless interior rooms like closets, or basements survive these storms.

With stronger tornadoes, even if people are warned they're coming, there's sometimes nowhere to go. In the Alabama tornadoes last week, many of the deaths were in mobile homes or standard wood frame homes. The tornado that caused all the deaths last week in Lee County, Alabama was an EF4, with winds of 166 to 200 mph.

As we saw in Alabama, tornadoes of that strength rip houses to shreds, with nothing but widely scattered debris left behind. How do you survive that?

It's impossible to say as of this morning whether any strong tornadoes actually form, but people in the higher risk zone had better pay very close attention to the weather today.

Tornado watches will likely first be issued. Tornado watches mean conditions are favorable for twisters, but they haven't necessarily formed yet. In the riskiest zones, I'd advise people to leave their mobile homes if a tornado watch is issued and find a more substantial building, just in case a tornado actually forms.

Better safe than sorry.

This is the deadly EF4 tornado last Sunday that killed 23 people
in Alabama. Like many big tornadoes in the South and East,
this one lacked the classic funnel shaped and to an untrained
eye might not have even looked  a tornado, but
just an angry mass of clouds. 

Anyone who gets a tornado warning should seek shelter right away. If a warning is issued, they shouldn't go outside or look through windows to see if the tornado is coming.

Especially in the southern and eastern United States, tornadoes are often embedded in downpours, so you can't see them coming. Plus there's a lot of trees and hills in the east, blocking views of approaching tornadoes.

Like many strong tornadoes, the big deadly tornado in Alabama last Sunday didn't have the classic funnel shape that we associate with such storms. Instead, it looked like just a mass of angry dark clouds as it approached. It wasn't clear to the untrained eye that it was actually an EF4 tornado. The same situation could happen today.

Yes, I'm hyperventilating a little here, as for all we know this outbreak of storms could mercifully turn out to be a dud. But it also might not, so this bears watching.

OTHER BAD WEATHER

As is often the case with tornadoes this time of year, the same storm system that is launching today's possible tornadoes is dumping heavy snow far to the north. This state of affairs certainly isn't as dangerous as a twister, but people should heed alerts and warnings in the snow zone.

A wide area from southeastern Montana to Wisconsin is under a winter storm warning for more than six inches of snow. This area has seen a lot of snow in the past six weeks and doesn't need more. Travel is not recommended in these areas.

Here in the Northeast, the storm's warm front will create a burst of snow and some mixed precipitation in much of New England. A winter weather advisory is up for southwestern New England because of this.

Here in Vermont, expect that burst of snow to come through during the morning, depositing a dusting to two inches of snow in most of the state, with two to four inches in many mountain areas and northeastern Vermont.

Winds will increase, too, gusting to 45 mph or so, especially in the Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Especially west of the Green Mountains, temperatures will rise above freezing Sunday afternoon, leaving us with occasional light rain or showers.  Which means much of whatever falls will melt. The showers might stay as snow or sleet east of the Greens.

More snow showers will continue Sunday night through Monday night. Some rain will be mixed in through the valleys, but some high elevations could pick up a few to several inches of snow out of this.

Forecasters are hinting at the first strong warmup of the spring late next week. Highs in the 50s anyone? That's surely possible with this temporary pattern change.

No Deaths, But Another Disaster Might Now Be Hitting The South

Peach blossoms like this might be damaged or destroyed in a
widespread hard freeze going on in the South this week. A large
percentage of this year's crop might be ruined. 

It's kind of hard to tell right away, but another big disaster might be hitting the South, the second one this week.

As we know, tragic tornadoes killed 23 people and caused widespread property damage Sunday, especially in Alabama and Georgia.  

This new disaster now unfolding very likely won't kill or physically injure anybody. No additional houses will suffer structural damage. But this latest weather event could prove pretty expensive.

Freeze warnings stretch this morning in a broad band from Texas to South Carolina. It was below freezing, with some areas of reporting record chill this morning. More hard freezes are forecast tonight and in some places, tomorrow night.

It's especially harsh in areas hit by the tornadoes. In Lee County, Alabama, the epicenter of the tornado disaster, some sleet was reported overnight, and temperatures were in the mid-20s this morning.

Across much of the South, especially east of the Mississippi River, it was a near-record warm February. That prompted a lot of crops, including big fruit tree farms to start budding and blooming much earlier than normal.

Then this blast of Arctic air hit. If this sounds familiar, it's because it is. Similar expensive freezes after record early season warmth  hit parts of the middle, southern and eastern parts of the nation in 2017 and 2018.

In the Texas hill country, a big area around Austin, peach trees were blooming. If the temperature falls to 28 or lower for a fairly extended period of time, you lose the entire peach crop once the flowers are blooming. That's the scenario Texas peach farmers are now facing. 

Early this morning, it was 26 degrees in Austin, Texas and 29 in San Antonio. Remember: It's usually a bit warmer in the cities than in rural areas, where the peach trees are.

In North Carolina, early varieties of peach trees are blooming, so those could be wiped out. On the bright side, later varieties of peach and apples aren't far enough along yet in North Carolina to suffer much harm. The cold will also slow down growth in those trees, so subsequent freezes later this month might not cause as much damage.

The situation is a little more dire in further south in South Carolina and Georgia, where peaches and other fruits have progressed along more than up in North Carolina.  Peach blooms are about two weeks ahead of schedule in South Carolina.

The freeze is in progress, so it won't be clear how much damage there is until days after the freeze ends, at least.

This isn't the type of weather disaster or event that garners headlines, like dramatic storms do, but worst case scenarios can cause many tens of millions in damages for farmers. Crop insurance helps, but it's not a cure all.

For the few of you who might be worried about how this will affect the famed cherry blossom spectacle in Washington DC, the short answer is, it won't. It is cold in Washington this week, with forecast temperatures to get as low as 20 degrees tonight and tomorrow night.

But the cherry buds are not nearly far enough along to suffer damage from the cold blast. Peak bloom in Washington is usually in late March or very early in April.

Saturday Morning Update: Dangerous Day In South Today

Especially in the orange section of this map, people
should be on alert for severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes today. 

Just a brief update for Saturday morning with this alert:

People who live in a broad path from northeast Texas through Arkansas and on up into southern Missouri, Illinois and Indiana really ought to be on guard today.

A whole variety of dangerous weather is breaking out there, including widespread flooding, severe thunderstorms, and, likely tornadoes. A few of those tornadoes could be strong.

It's been raining hard for days in this area, so flooding is already ongoing. A huge batch of rain today is going to make things worse.

A strong disturbance will also make winds change directions with height, a great recipe if you want an early season outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

The two biggest metro areas that seem to be under the gun today are Little Rock and Memphis, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

Especially in the purple and red sections of this map,
people should be on alert for looding today 

Also note that since the ground is saturated in those areas, strong winds would make it easier for trees to become uprooted during those strong winds in severe thunderstorms.

I'm impressed by the big size of today's high risk of flash flooding. According to the National Weather Service, that area extends from the southeastern corner of Oklahoma all the way up into Ohio.

Flooding has already taken a big toll this week in Ontario, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and elsewhere. At least two people have died in the flooding, and other deaths were reported during the week a bit west of the flood zone where freezing caused traffic crashes.

The St. Joseph River in and near South Bend, Indiana has reached a record crest and prompted plenty of evacuations.

The same storm that is likely to cause havoc today in the Mid-South will arrive in Vermont Sunday. There won't be anything too scary here, but it will be an ugly day in the weather department.

Expect snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain changing to rain as temperatures stay raw all day in the 30s. Gusty southeast winds of up to 40 mph will add to the ickiness of Sunday's weather.

It'll stay a little warmer than normal through most of next week. Many daytime highs will be in the 40s. It looks like maple sugaring season is off to an early start.