Hanna And Her Siblings

As expected, Tropical Storm Hanna formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is going to cause some mischief along the southern coast of Texas.

Hanna looked pretty healthy on satellite images this morning. As of 4 a.m., the storm only had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, but I'm sure they'll find that it will have strengthened by later this morning.

Luckily, Hanna likely won't have time to strengthen all that much as it heads west towards Texas.  As of early this morning, it was only about 280 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas and will make landfall by early Saturday afternoon.

Still, a well-organized system like Hanna sitting over very toasty Gulf of Mexico waters can strengthen fast. There's a chance that Hanna could become a hurricane even though it's already fairly close to land. Only after landfall is it guaranteed to weaken.

Pretty much all tropical storms and hurricanes weaken upon landfall.

It looks like Hanna might dump upwards of a half foot of rain in some sections of southern Texas, certainly enough to raise a flood risk.  It will have gotten stronger by the time it reaches Texas. It probably won't be all the way up to hurricane strength, but it might get close.

Meanwhile, Hanna's unreliable little brother Tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to churn east of the Lesser Antilles. That storm is a wild card, because it's small and unpredictable.   Smaller storms can strengthen or fall apart on a dime, and that's the kind of thing we're seeing with Gonzalo.

A little dry air intruded on Gonzalo yesterday, disrupting its circulation.  It still might get stronger as it moves into the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.  It's then expected to get weaker again once it's into the eastern Caribbean.

But little Gonzalo probably isn't done with surprises yet, so  the National Hurricane Center will certainly keep a close eye on the little devil.

Meanwhile, out in the Pacific, Hanna's big brother Hurricane Douglas continues to spin toward Hawaii. Douglas was a Category 4 monster early this morning with top sustained wind of 130 mph. Luckily, Douglas isn't near any land at the moment, so it's not wrecking anything.

However, Douglas is still headed toward Hawaii.  Cooler water in its path and strong winds aloft will surely weaken Douglas. It will still be a borderline hurricane/tropical storm with winds of 75 mph as it gets near the Big Island of Hawaii over the weekend, according to current forecasts.

Back in the Atlantic Ocean, a strong weather disturbance is coming off the west coast of Africa and will start to head west far out there.  This one could also eventually turn into a tropical storm or hurricane, so stay tuned!

Shower Chances, Maybe Strong South, Tropics Turning Active

Hanging baskets looking to the clouds and waiting for rain recently
on my back deck in St. Albans, Vermont. Flower and structural
design by my husband, Jeff Modereger

It's still not nearly as wet as I'd like it to be here in Vermont as the trend in below normal rainfall has continued since it at least April.

There are chances for showers and storms off and on through next week.  But I don't see anything major at this point. It also appears  - for now, anyway - that the imaginary anti-rain force in the Champlain Valley is holding strong.

Shower and storm chances look best for the next couple of days outside the Champlain Valley, though we can hold out some hope a stray shower will hit there, too.

There's actually a chance of strong to severe storms today in far southern Vermont and points south of there through southwestern New England down into the Middle Atlantic states.  High winds are the biggest threat in this broad area of severe storm risk, though an isolated, brief tornado can't be ruled out.

Further north, there might be a rumble or two of thunder, but nothing huge. Already this morning, a narrow band of showers has dampened a good chunk of southern Vermont, but that was moving out.

By later today and this evening, there will be a good shot at some showers outside the Champlain Valley.  In the valley, there will probably be some patches of rain, but the chances are there are a little less than elsewhere in the state, at least in my opinion.

It looks like more showers and storms will form tomorrow, but again, the best coverage seems like it could be outside the Champlain Valley.  It's not that northwestern Vermont will miss out on the rain. That area will almost certainly get some.  Just not as much as points south and east.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of Vermont of most of the Northeast in a marginal risk zone for severe storms on Thursday. That means there might be isolated incidents of strong, damagiing wind gusts, but nothing widespread.

The next real chance of rain in Vermont after tomorrow will come along on Sunday.  No guarantees on how much that will amount to, but all the meteorologists will surely keep an eye on that.

TROPICAL TROUBLE

Hurricane experts have ramped up the alarm bells about this year's hurricane season potential, given the unusually warm waters in much of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form. Other atmospheric factors still favor a lot of storms. Even worse, the current weather pattern, it it holds, would tend to steer storms toward the United States.

Summertime clouds not quite getting their act together enough
to produce showers this past Monday over St. Albans, Vermont.

We've already had hints of a troublesome year, since we're way ahead of normal in terms of how many tropical storms have already formed. There's already been six, but thankfully, they've all tended to be pretty weak.

Stronger hurricanes tend to get going in August and September, and you should expect the tropics to start becoming more active right about now.

The tropics certainly got that memo. Probably by the time you read this, Tropical Storm Gonzalo will have formed way out in the central Atlantic.  From there it will move west toward the Caribbean Sea, but exactly where and at what strength is anybody's guess

Wannabe Gonzalo is a tiny, cute little thing spinning out there.  Tropical systems that are small in size are notoriously hard to forecast, both in terms of strength and direction.  When such a storm is tiny, just a little bit of dry air intruding or a few gusts of strong upper level winds can tear it apart and kill it.

On the other hand, a tiny storm can defy predictions and cloak itself in its own protective shield of moisture, and strengthen quickly.   Right now the National Hurricane Center is taking, in my opinion, a correct conservative approach and just maintaining Wannabe Gonzalo as a tropical storm right through the weekend.  They'll surely change and update this forecast in the coming days.

It's possible Wannabe Gonzalo could pose a United States threat next week, but that is a big question mark right now.

Another weaker tropical type system is lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.  It's unlikely to become a tropical storm, though some computer models think it will strengthen to that level.  It's headed toward Texas, and will give parts of that state a deep soaking this coming weekend.

Another batch of storms that will move off the west coast of Africa in the next few days will also have to be watched in case it turns into an eventual threat.

This 'n That: Extra Vermont Rain; Arizona Tornado? And Karen Wildcard

Possible tornado just north of Phoenix, Arizona yesterday. Photo via KTAR

I guess I just had to ask for it.

In yesterday's post, I mentioned we could use some rain here in Vermont. I was pessimistic that we'd get all that much.

Then lo and behold, the skies delivered some decent rains. 

Yesterday's cold front overproduced in much of central and northern Vermont, dumping a half inch or more of rain on many towns. Burlington clocked in with 0.90 inches.

My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont, collected a decent 0.70 of an inch. A little more rain was falling at the time I measured.   Some areas in the upper Connecticut River Valley received more than two inches of rain.

There was no flooding of note in the heavy downpours, and the rain was helpful.

I am a bit interested in a low topped strong to severe thunderstorm that moved through Saratoga County, New York, across southern Vermont and into New Hampshire last evening. It occasionally showed signs of rotation, but radar samplings weren't all that good because of mountains that got in the way of the beams.

There were reports of trees down in Saratoga County, New York, so that whole thing was vaguely interesting.

Speaking of tornadoes in odd locations, a possible tornado struck near Willcox, Arizona yesterday, injuring three people. Video showed a definite funnel which looks like it touched down. The likely Arizona twister was part of a severe weather outbreak in that state yesterday that also brought quite a bit of flash flooding.

All this was caused by moisture from what was Tropical Storm Lorena, which formed and later dissipated near Baja California last week.

Those tropics are active.  In the Atlantic Ocean, we've got three storms. One of them is a wild card that I will get to in a second. But I want to go in alphabetical order. 

Tropical Storm Karen trying to get its act together
this morning south of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Jerry is spinning and struggling out there, well northeast of the Bahamas. It's got 60 mph winds but those are forecast to diminish.

 Jerry will continue sputtering away to the northeast out over the open ocean and seems to pose no threat.

Now the wildcard: Tropical Storm Karen. There have been a lot of questions over how well it would survive, and if so, what would happen.

If it dissipated as it headed north toward Puerto Rico, then there would be no worries as it headed north toward Puerto Rico.

But of course Karen started to get its act together again last night. So Puerto Rico is under the gun for tropical storm conditions soon. Oh, and Puerto Rico had an earthquake last night. Luckily, not a lot of damage with that one.

Karen is pretty weak, with sustained winds of just 40 mph earlier this morning, but it is currently expected to strengthen.

Once Karen gets north of Puerto Rico, things could get even more interesting. The National Hurricane Center's thinking is that if Karen stays on the weak side, it would stagger off to the northeast and dissipate like her brother Jerry is doing.

However, there's another big ridge of high pressure building again in the western Atlantic Ocean. This type of setup forced Hurricane Dorian to stall with devastating results in the Bahamas, then head toward the United States, sideswiping the Southeast.

If Karen remains relatively strong, history could sort of repeat itself. Although if it stalls, it looks like it would be over the open ocean. Still, Karen could eventually pose a threat to the United States. We'll have to wait and see.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. The bad news is it's expected to become a wicked strong hurricane. The very good news is at least at this point, it looks like it will recurve to the north and not bother the Caribbean or the United States.

Sept. Weather Pattern Gorgeous For New England; But For Rest Of Nation, Not So Much

Gorgeous sunset over northwestern Vermont last Sunday. This is a photo
I took from a hot air balloon.

We here in Vermont and the rest of the New England have been blessed by what has so far been a gorgeous September.

With few exceptions, we've had lots of sunny, pleasant days. Temperatures have generally been a tad cooler than normal, but not by much. Aside from a couple windy days that brought down a few branches, nothing bad has happened. 

This pattern is going to continue, except with some re-arrangements that will make warmer than normal temperatures more likely into early October. There will be episodes of rain and or wind thrown in for the next couple of weeks, but the sunshine seems like it might dominate.

This weather situation has been great for us. For much of the rest of the nation, not so much. On two occasions already this month, the pattern has steered two tropical systems into the United States, with destructive results.

After leveling the northern Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian sideswiped coastal North Carolina, causing a major storm surge flood on Oracoake Island. Then, as we've been talking about all week, Tropical Storm Imelda unleashed another epic flood disaster in Houston and other parts of eastern Texas.

The pattern has also emphasized storminess in the central and northern Plains. Record flooding hitting parts of South Dakota and Iowa earlier this month, and tornadoes swept through Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

It's not getting any better out in that part of the nation. The remnants of Isabel, plus moisture from tropical storms off the west coast of Mexico, combined with a cold front, are expected to unleash more dangerous flash floods today in the central United States, especially in parts of Kansas and Missouri.

Flash flooding and a possible tornado hit eastern North Dakota overnight. Meanwhile, the remnants of now-Hurricane Lorena, which is near Baja California, could unleash flash floods and severe thunderstorms in Arizona early next week.

A big, fat ridge of high pressure mostly centered in the east-central United States has been responsible for this pattern. Under this ridge, in the South and Tennessee Valleys, heat has broken hundreds of records and many cities look like they will have their hottest September on record.

(The fact that the high pressure ridge in the jet stream has been generally centered just west and south of New England has allowed cooler pushes of air to sneak down the front side of the ridge through Quebec and Ontario and on into New England).

With the ridge in the east, there's a corresponding dip in the jet stream over the western United States. That has produced some rare thunderstorms in places like Seattle this month.

There are signs that the jet stream dip in the West could sharpen in the coming days, opening up the possibillity of unusually strong rain storms for this early in the season, and an odd amount of early season snow in parts of the Rockies.

So yeah, us Vermonters can really rejoice in the great weather we've had,  considering we've been almost surrounded by all kinds of yucky and even dangerous conditions.

Enjoy it while you can, because I have an adage that has always worked: No great weather in Vermont goes unpunished. We will get our comeuppance soon enough. What form that will take is anybody's guess.

See-Sawing Into Autumn, But With Summery Interruptions

Clouds over St. Albans. Vermont on September 4 showed both
the volatility of a summer sky and the gloom of late autumn
We are certainly in a transition season. 

So far, September in Vermont this year is a lot cooler than the record warmth of the past three summers.

You can see it on the hills and mountains.  While the trees are still mostly green, there are more splashes of color on this September 12 than there were on this date over the last three years.

However, in the days going forward, look for some summery periods in this downward temperature slide into autumn.

We had such an warm interruption yesterday, when Burlington, Vermont got above 80 degrees for the first time since August 30. And we had some oppressive humidity to boot. A definite summer flashback.

Last night's cold front has gotten us back into fall.  It was dank, overcast and cool this morning, though the sun should come out this afternoon, especially in the north. But it'll stay cool, setting us up for tonight, which will probably be the chilliest one since early June.

I would not be at all surprised if the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, the Green Mountains, the Adirondacks and White Mountains see a touch of frost. Most of us have nothing to worry about in that department, though. The gardens are still safe. For now.

We in Vermont have been, and will be for the next several days in a bit of a battleground between oddly strong and hot high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean and the southern United States. Record highs have been falling like crazy in the South.

We'll keep seeing attempts for that hot air to make a run towards us, but the heat will keep getting cut off at the pass by cold fronts from Canada. In fact, the forecast looks really tricky for the first part of next week. The heat will build strongly in the Midwest. The center of the heat ridge will be just to our west.

That would open the door for back door cold fronts to come in from eastern Canada. (It's called a back door cold front because it comes in from the north and east, which is somewhat unusual. Most cold fronts come at us from the west.)

These back door cold fronts can make for some weird temperature contrasts, with chilly air to the east and very warm air to the west. Where any one location in Vermont sets up under this scenario is anyone's guess. Could be warm, could be chilly next week. Stay tuned.

There are signs, though, that the summer-like warmth will temporarily engulf us fully later next week.

By the way, this relatively odd set up with the strong high pressure in the Atlantic and southeastern United States is not a good one to have during hurricane season, which is now.

Often, tropical storms and hurricanes manage to recurve northward, well offshore of the East Coast, sparing us any storms and disasters.

This current weather pattern tends to steer tropical storms and hurricanes either toward the East Coast or Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical depression or tropical storm is forecast to form in the next day or two over the Bahamas. It is already raining hard under the system's developing thunderstorms.

The really bad news is even if this wannabe tropical storm doesn't get too strong, it will dump torrential rains on the northern Bahamas, which were devastated by Hurricane Dorian. This area surely doesn't need more trouble!

Nobody is really sure where this wannabe tropical storm will go after the Bahamas. But given that strong high pressure in the Atlantic, this storm could easily end up threatening Florida, the southern Eastern Seaboard or the Gulf Coast states.

At this point, there is pretty much no agreement in the computer models as to where this will go. We'll just have to wait and see.

Florence: Category 2 Hurricane But Category 5 Flood Threat

Today's satelllite view of Hurricane Florence

As of this morning, the winds in Hurricane Florence aren't quite as ferocious as originally expected, but nobody in the Carolinas or elsewhere should relax over this.

The catastrophic flood threat, always the real story with this hurricane, is just as bad or worse than it's been.

Upper level winds near the Florence have degraded the hurricane a bit, which explains why the winds have dropped to a still-formidable 110 mph. Little change in strength is expected before landfall tomorrow morning.

What Florence has lost in wind strength is has made up for in size. The hurricane is expanded, which means it can still generate very intense coastal storm surge. Strong, damaging winds will cover a wider area, too.

As of this morning, hurricane force winds extended outward some 80 miles from the center of Florence, and tropical storm force wind were as far as 195 miles from the storm center, says the National Hurricane Center.

All this means Hurricane Florence can still generate a storm surge of nine to 13 feet high along parts of the North Carolina coastline. Damaging storm surges are a big threat across the entire coastlines of South and North Carolina and southern Virginia.

The surges will be accompanied by huge, battering waves. An offshore wave that was 80 feet tall was detected with Florence yesterday. That's roughly the height of an eight-story building. As you can see, anyone who has not evacuated from areas under storm surge warnings are extremely foolish.

Before and after pictures after a storm surge from Hurricane Ike wrecked
parts of the Texas coastline on this date in 2008.
Hurricane Florence is a similar storm and might have similar effects. 

Florence reminds me of Hurricane Ike, which hit the Texas coast on this date in 2008. It, too, "weakened" to a Category 2 storm before landfall, but its size expanded very much like Florence has. The result was a terrible storm surge that washed away countless coastal homes and buildings in Texas.

Hurricane Ike killed 21 people in the United States. Some of those were people who ignored evacuation orders and drowned in the storm surge.   The coastline of Texas is flat, like North Carolina's. The Ike storm surge in Texas extended inland as far as 18 miles. 

So you see what we're up against.

Hurricane Florence has always been odd. It took a weird, unprecedented path toward the U.S. East Coast, it strengthened, weakened and strengthened again rapidly, and as it approaches the coast, it is expected to take a slow curve to the southwest, down the North Carolina coast toward South Carolina, then inland.

Meteorologist Marshall Shepherd, writing in Forbes said: "In my 27 years of professional experience, I have never seen some of the projected characteristics or behavior of Hurricane Florence."

The forward pace of Florene will be excruciatingly slow, much slower than most hurricanes, which is why everybody is so worried about the epic rainfall expected with this. If Florence moves slowly, as expected, it has time to dump record amounts of rain, which of course would produce record flooding.

Forecasts continue to call for two to three FEET of rain in southern North Carolina, especially around Wilmington, North Carolina. This downpour should start today, and anyone who lives near a river or any waterway should get out, pronto.

Some of the flooding will be made even worse because storm surges will block water from flowing out of channels and rivers with outlets to the sea. The water will just back up into  more and more neighborhoods.

I've seen it said on social media the Hurricane Florence is a Category 2 storm but a Category 5 flood threat. I certainly buy that.

The outer bands of Hurricane Florence were beginning to affect coastal North Carolina this morning. Conditions will keep going downhill all day today.

ATLANTIC BUSY, IN ADDITION TO FLORENCE

Lots of storms in addition to Florence to watch in the Atlantic

As if forecasters didn't have their hands full enough with Florence, the Atlantic Ocean is about as busy as it can possibly get in terms of tropical storms.

Including Florence, there are four tropical storms or hurricanes spinning out there, and a potential one in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Helene is weakening as it heads northward in the open Atlantic. It will become a gusty non-tropical storm that could hit Ireland in a few days.

Tropical Storm Isaac is heading into the Caribbean Sea and is remaining weak. It might even fall apart within the next few days. Still, some computer models suggest it might regenerate once it gets further west in a few days, so we'll have to keep an eye on it.

Subtropical Storm Joyce is expected to become a purely tropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean within a couple days, but it poses no threat to land.

An area of showers and storms in the western Gulf of Mexico will likely hit land before it can develop into a tropical storm. However, it will spread heavy rains into northeastern Mexico and Texas, which raises a flood threat.

East Coast Should Start Watching, But Not Panicking Over Unpredictable Florence

Satellite map shows Florence in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean,
two strong disturbances that will become tropical storms in
the eastern Atlantic and the wet remains of Gordon
lurking over Arkansas. 

Hurricane Florence, now, temporarily Tropical Storm Florence, is one of those storms that make meteorologists bald from pulling out their hair so much.  

The storm, still in the central Atlantic Ocean, keeps surprising forecasters with its variable strength and uncertain direction.

Worse, the overall weather pattern over North America and the Atlantic Ocean is very strange, making forecasting all the more difficult.

This mess would just be an esoteric exercise for weather geeks except for one thing: Florence could cause real, scary trouble somewhere along the East Coast. Nobody is sure yet. So no panicking, please.

Also, definitely ignore the clickbait that's out there on social media that says The End Is Nigh.

It's not.

Instead, check out the National Hurricane Center or sane meteorologists you trust to get the best information on Florence. Or any other hurricane or storm for that matter.

Before you start panicking, remember: Florence is still way out over the central Atlantic and people have plenty of time to prepare. As the next few days go by, we'll have a clearer picture of whether Florence will score a devastating blow on the East Coast, or turn harmlessly out to sea, or do something between those two extremes.

WHAT TO DO NOW

It is the middle of hurricane season. Which means Florence is a great excuse for people everywhere along the East Coast to consider what they would do if threatened by a major hurricane.

Where would you go if told to evacuate? What stuff would you take with you if told to evacuate? How would you protect your home and/or business?  Where are your important papers and documents, and can you easily protect those? Are there copies of those documents in another safe space? What about the stuff you have saved on your computer? Is that stored in some sort of backup or the cloud?

What would you do with your pets? Do you have an emergency stash of nonperishable food and water if told to shelter in place? (Remember, stores will be closed and electricity will be out long after a bad hurricane has passed.)

If you need supplies for any future hurricane that comes along next week, this year, or next year or five years from now, this weekend is a great time to head down to Home Depot and the grocery store to get some of these items. Nobody's panicking now, so you'll be able to get in and out of these stores just fine, and what you're looking for will still be in stock.

So what about Florence?

WHAT FLORENCE IS DOING

The European compuer models seem to want to take Florence into
the Southeast or Middle Atlantic States. These potential tracks
are all various versions of the European. Note these are
NOT definitely predictions and more speculation.
Take this map with a big grain of salt. 

Florence, against all odds, rapidly strengthened into a major Category 4 storm a couple days ago, despite strong upper level winds that should have kept it in check.

Then those high level winds finally ripped into Florence over the past 24 hours and it has weakened into a tropical storm with top winds estimated at 65 mph, and I think that's generous. Florence looks pretty disorganized as of this morning.

Forecasters think the strong upper level winds peaked early this morning and will gradually relax as Florence heads generally westward. That means the storm will likely start strengthening again. On top of that, Florence is going to move over warmer water. The hotter the water, the more likely a hurricane will strengthen.

Nobody knows how much Florence will strengthen, and given its history, nobody dares make a precise guess.

The future path of Florence is even more tricky to figure out. A couple days ago, Florence was in a spot in the Atlantic Ocean that keeps hurricanes from the East Coast. Every prior hurricane that had been in that area in known history curved north and away from the East Coast.

But there's that weird weather pattern I talked about. It's pretty much the same one we had all summer, with a strong ridge of high pressure near or off the southeastern Canadian coast.

American computer models want to take Florence more
toward New England. Again, this is just one run
of a computer model with potential tracks and NOT an
official forecast. This map is basically
speculation at this point. 

That ridge will block Florence if tries to turn north. However, there will be occasional weaknesses in that otherwise strong high pressure to the north of Florence.

Those weakenesses just might allow Florence to turn north and miss the United States, or at least turn north soon enough so it stays just offshore, so the impacts wouldn't be quite so bad.

Other computer models smash Florence directly into the East Coast. If this happens, nobody is sure where.

Here's another problem: Ocean water temperatures off the East Coast, all the way past Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes, is near record warm.  Hurricanes heading north past the Mid-Atlantic states tend to start weakening because of the chilly ocean water.

If Florence heads north of say, Virginia, it has the potential to stay stronger longer because of the toasty water.

All this is still speculation, so we're just going to have to wait it out until forecasts become more clear.

REMEMBER GORDON?

You probably remember Tropical Storm Gordon a few days ago coming ashore along the northern Gulf Coast, causing some wind and flood damage.

Gordon's remains still lurk out there. It was sitting around Arkansas this morning spreading heavy rain around.  The ghost of Gordon is going to cause huge trouble today and over the weekend, with a serious potential for flooding in places like Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. These areas have gotten lots of rain in recent weeks. The soil is saturated, and heavy rains could easily cause flooding.

A huge area from Arkansas to Iowa to Ohio is under a flash flood watch today. Atmospheric conditions will only make the chances for heavy rain increase later today and tonight, so this could be bad.

The good news, at least for us Vermonters, is that a storm that contains the remains of Gordon is expected to come through Monday and early Tuesday. We have a shot of receiving the first widespread, steady rain in the Green Mountain State since at least June.

Since much of the state is in drought or abnormally dry conditions, this will help. Us Vermonters might be lucky in getting Gordon's silver lining.

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE

Two strong weather disturbances have moved westward off the African Coast and into the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricance Center says both disturbances are extremely likely to turn into tropical storms, and soon.

It's way, way too early to think about where those two storms will go. We have our hands full with Florence, so let's deal with that first.

Gordon Now More Likely To Be A Hurricane

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Gordon getting stronger just off the east
coast of Florida this afternoon. It's a definite threat to the central Gulf
Coast and beyond 

In this morning's post, I speculated that Tropical Storm Gordon might end up being stronger than forecast.

It looks like that might well happen.

Gordon briefly developed an eye today, which is a bit ominous, but that well-organized core has since at least temporarily eroded, the National Hurricane Center tells us at their 5 p.m advisory.

Still, Gordon has otherwise been organizing nicely, so the NHC now thinks it will become a hurricane before making landfall. A hurricane warning is now up for the central Gulf Coast. 

Although Gordon probably won't be a blockbuster Gulf hurricane like Katrina or Harvey, it's still a force to be reckoned with, and taken seriously.

There could be a storm surge of three to five feet. At least a half foot of rain will fall on some areas with already saturated soils, so flooding is pretty much a sure bet.

The flooding looks like it will be a risk well past the time Gordon makes landfall and becomes just a remnant. Heavy rains seem like they will cause inundations along a stripe extending northwestward from southern Mississippi to Oklahoma in the coming week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Florence is still way out over the central Atlantic Ocean, with highest sustained winds of 70 mph. That's a bit stronger than it was expected to be at this time. The added strength could actually be a good sign, as it might help make it turn north and stay away from the United States.

Florence is still expected to weaken temporarily over the next couple of days, but then regain some oomph later this week. It's still too soon to tell exactly what it will do, but it's not any kind of immediate threat.  People along the U.S. East Coast will still want to keep abreast with what Florence is doing, because it can still cause trouble. We'll see.

More disturbances are emerging from the west coast of Africa and some of these will have to be watched for eventual tropical development.

Thank Goodness Big Hurricane Aletta Missed Land: Next Up: Bud And More Scary U.S. Rain

Intense Hurricane Aletta off Mexico's west coast Friday. 

Hurricane Aletta in the eastern Pacific Ocean didn't really get anyone hot and bothered except for weather geeks like me.

It spun up off the western Mexican coast in recent days.

At midweek it blossomed overnight from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 140 mph. It's very unusual for a storm to intensify that fast, and of course there would have been real trouble had Aletta gotten close to land.

Thankfully, she headed west, away from land. All we got was the wow factor of seeing a hurricane intensify so fast and spectacular satellite photos and videos. Now, Aletta is getting into colder waters and stronger upper level winds. It's weakening, and should dissipate within a few days.

It's not weird for a hurricane to get going this early in the eastern Pacific. It IS odd, but certainly not unprecedented for a hurricane to get that strong so early in the season. It's the sixth earliest Category 4 storm in the eastern Pacific, notes Dr. Jeff Masters in his Category 6 blog.

Another eastern Pacific tropical storm seems almost certain to form any minute now. It will be named Bud and it could threaten Baja California with heavy rain, high surf and strong winds. It bears watching.

I like the name Bud for a tropical storm or hurricane but I still don't want it to hit land and cause havoc.

MIDDLE ATLANTIC RAINS, AGAIN!

Of more concern to people in the United States is a return to a weather pattern that brought destructive flooding during May to some areas in and near the Middle Atlantic States. and Midwest.

A generally west-to-east oriented weather front is forecast to waver back and forth over the central Plains, through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the Middle Atlantic States over the next week or more.

This will bring repeated rains, sometimes heavy to these regions.  The Middle Atlantic States had among their wettest Mays on record. Many areas flooded, like we saw in the Ellicott City, Maryland disaster. The Potomac River went into a high enough flood so that a fly fisherman was spotted in the Washington DC National Mall as the river's waters invaded that area.

Other areas, as far west as Iowa, have been suffering through this weather pattern, with flooding reported there, and more expected.

Evacuations due to flooding in Mason City, Iowa this week.
Via NorthIowaToday.com

I do think we will see more news of destructive and possibly flash floods in the areas I just mentioned over the course of  the next 10 days or so.

This weather pattern, with the wavering front well to our south, is and isn't perfect for us here in Vermont, either.

On the perfect side, it has been happily contributing to a long series of Goldilocks, Chamber of Commerce Days (Not too hot, not too cold, and plenty of sun for the tourists to enjoy.)

This trend will continue for the next few days at least.

But we are drying out, and very little rain is forecast here in Vermont over the next week. Some precipitation might fall toward the end of next week, but at this point it's looking way less than impressive.

We are still quite far from any worries about drought, though areas of abnormally dry conditions are starting to pop up in parts of New England, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

If this trend continues through the summer (a really BIG if), we could be looking at some problems with lack of water by August or so. Fortunately, weather patterns that start in May typically don't last through the whole summer.

Tropical Depression Strikes Indiana Of All Places, Bad Flooding Elsewhere

Tropical Depression Alberto still has a well defined tropical-like
circulation over Indiana on Wednesday. 

This morning, former subtropical Storm Alberto was still a tropical depression - in Indiana of all places.

Alberto has held together remarkably well as a tropical system. Usually, they transition pretty quickly to non-tropical storm systems or disturbances soon after moving inland.

Alberto will indeed become just a regular old inland weather system later today, but it's survivability into Indiana is pretty incredible.

Satellite photos from this morning show a well defined pinwheel Tropical Depression Alberto centered not far from Terre Haute, Indiana.

This is a big example of what's known as the "brown ocean."  The tropical disturbance can hold together becuase there is no influence from an upper level low that would disrupt the circulation. Also, there was plenty of low level and moisture from the ground to support the tropical system.

Remember, tropical systems depend on warm water to maintain their strength and integrity. When they go inland, that source of nutrition for tropical systems ends. Usually. Except in cases like this when there's nothing to disrupt them and there's plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with.

North Carolina Department of Transportation truck swept into a river
Tuesday. The two workers in the truck were rescued. 

While the actual circulation of Alberto is relatively small, it drew huge quantities of tropical, wet air into parts of the nation, causing or at least greatly contributing to some pretty horrible flash floods in some locations.

Western North Carolina was especially hard hit, with plenty of evacuations, water rescues, road closures and property damage.

Even the famed Biltmore Estate in Asheville was affected: The main entrance to the mansion and tourist attraction was blocked by floodwaters.

Ashville has had its wettest May on record.

Interstate 40 in McDowell County, North Carolina was closed due to landslides and flooding. Two North Carolina state highway workers had to be rescued from the flooding.

A flash flood emergency was also declared in parts of Alabama as well. Many roads are closed and people had to be rescued from at least one flooded home.

GERMANY FLOOD, TOO

Flash flooding seems to to be all the rage this week across much of the world. We had the Ellicott City, Maryland disaster on Sunday. Other flash floods struck parts of the Rocky Mountains. Areas of Great Britaina and particularly Germany have also been slammed by these floods.

Roads and buildings flooded, roofs collapsed and people were rescued, especially around the city of Wuppertal, Germany.

Some videos:

Flooding in the Biltmore Village section of Asheville, North Carolina:



Flooding in Germany:

Jump To Mid-Summer: Summer Heat, Tropical Trouble, Sluggish Thunderstorms

A pleasant, summery, humid morning today on the golf course behind my
mother-in-law's house in Yankton, South Dakota. Summer heat
has arrived early in this neck of the woods. 

The nation's weather has taken a total jump from spring to what we would expect in mid-summer. And it's not even Memorial Day yet.

Parts of the nation - even some northern areas - are or are about to endure days of near 90 degree heat.

There's a messy tropical system that might affect the Gulf Coast states - the kind that usually waits at least until July to develop.

And there are thunderstorms around. As I mentioned yesterday, the type of thunderstorms that seem to be scattered around the nation are typical of mid-summer: A few severe ones pop up, but they're not parts of big massive storm systems.

These thunderstorms are sluggish, part of weak weather systems, and have the potential to unleash heavy rains and local flash flooding.

Like I said, typical July in the United States.

Oh sure, there are cool pockets. There's a frost advisory tonight in northeastern Maine, for example. In Vermont, there will be probably be one hot day on Friday when temperatures will get into the 80s, but otherwise temperatures will generally be in the seasonable low 70s over the next several days.

At my temporary spring headquarters in Yankton, South Dakota, it's humid, like July. Starting today and going through next Monday, daily high temperatures will approach or exceed 90 degrees.  (Normal high temperatures this time of year in Yankton are in the low to mid 70s.)

Some of the northern and central Plains States - mostly the Dakotas, parts of Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska, could have record highs over the next few days.

This same area was ground zero for the intense cold that afflicted much of the nation in April. This area had the coldest April on record, now it's suddenly full-blown summer in May in the northern Plains.

Then there's that tropical trouble.  There's a weather disturbance near Belize that could turn into a very early season tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico later in the week or toward the weekend. Whether or not it actually develops is open to question, but regardless, it threatens flooding rains for parts of the Deep South this weekend.

The early arrival of summer doesn't mean it's going to stick around. Who knows? June could be cool, for all we know. It's really impossible to tell at this point if the United States summer will be unusually hot or not.

However, over the course of the next week or two, the general consensus is almost all of the nation will be warmer than normal. 

Stay tuned.

Philippines Typhoon Kills Up To 240 People

Destruction from Typhoon Tembin in the Philippines
 this past week. 

While we're shivering our timbers in the Northeast U.S., the nearly never-ending typhoon season in the western Pacific continues onward. (This is normal, they get occasional typhoons for much of the year.)

Unlike the very destructive Atlantic hurricane season the tropical storm and typhoon season in the western Pacific was relatively tame in 2017, especially compared to recent years.

However, a tropical storm that later became a minimal typhoon named Tembin caused a terrible, deadly disaster over Christmas weekend in the Philippines. This storm's deadly punch came in the form of torretial rains that triggered flash floods and mudslides, killing somewhere between 160 and 250 people in the southern part of the nation.  (There is still some confusion on the number.)

Typhoon Tembin capped a terribly tragic Christmas season in the Philippines. Another typhoon killed 50 people and damaged or destroyed 10,000 or so homes in the central part of the nation a little over a week ago. Another storm sank a ferry this month to the northeast, killing five people. And in another tragedy not related to the weather, a shopping mall and office building fire claimed at least 37 lives. 

Typhoon Tembin threatened Vietnam, forcing evacuations there, but the typhoon dramatically weakened and ultimately steered clear of Vietnam, so it caused little damage and no injuries there.

According to the Category 6 weather blog, another typhoon might form in the western Pacific over the next couple of days and threaten the Philippines by around New Year's Day.

Worries Rise Over Possible Big New England Flood Sunday/Monday

Parts of the Northeast, including most of New England
can expect two to six inches of rain over the next
few days because of a series of storms.
Flooding will be risk Sunday and Monday.

I'm getting a little worried about a very, very wet storm that is due to strike New England Sunday and Monday.  

If things gather together the way some computer forecasting models suggest, there could be some nasty floods for parts of the region by Sunday night or Monday.

Of course, we do not know yet for sure if these floods will develop, and if they do, exactly where the worst of it will be and how bad.

Parts of New England are already dealing with flood problems. Most of the issues are in southern and eastern parts of the region.

A slow moving front touched off flooding in sections of New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts and Connecticut Tuesday night and Wednesday.

That same weather front is still stalled in or near eastern New England today. A little storm riding north along the front has brought renewed rains to all of New England, and some of it is enough to trigger new flood alerts, especially in central Massachusetts and Downeast Maine.

This, however, is potentially only a warmup.

A new, slow moving cold front is likely to approach the East Coast and move into the Northeast Sunday. There will be little storms rippling northward along the front again to enhance the rain. Worse, it looks like the last storm moving northward along the front will tap intense moisture from a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea. 

This last storm will probably strenghten into a nor'easter and dump boatloads of rain on New England and eastern New York. It's possible - not definite, but possible - that the storm could dump three to six inches of rain on part of the region. That's what could spell the big flood problems, especially in areas that had heavy rain this week.

Especially along the coast, the storm later Sunday could bring winds strong enough to take down some trees and power lines.

Here in Vermont, my first guess is the threat is a bit lower, only because the autumn has been kind of dry and there's room for water to soak in. But don't bet on it. If it rains hard enough, we, too, could be looking at flood problems come later Sunday or Monday.

This seems to have been a pattern we've seen all year, and to an extent previous years: It gets too dry, then we have too much rain too fast, then it gets dry again. Rinse and repeat.

There's no need to panic over Sunday's potential storm, but I would keep watching for updated forecasts, especially if you live in a flood-prone area.

Category 5 Hurricane Irma Could Be Another Worst Case Scenario

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Irma heading westbound
toward the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday.

Boy, it's busy today.  We have Hurricane Irma, other tropical trouble, severe storms in the East and fires out west. I'll obviously start with Irma, and I'll get to the other issues lower down in this post after I get done with the very dangerous news on Hurricane Irma.

Irma this morning is a Category 5 beast, the worst you can get, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, gusting to 215 mph. It's the strongest hurricane on record that's occured in the Atlantic Ocean outside of the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

Worse, the National Hurricane Center says Irma will remain a Category 4 or 5 storm all the way to somewhere near Florida by the weekend.

The further out in time you get with the forecasts for Irma, the more uncertainties arise in its exact track, and that's normal for all hurricanes.

We do know that by tonight or tomorrow, the northern Leeward Islands are going to be crushed by perhaps the worst hurricane in their history, as Irma will still probably be a Category 5 storm then.

Next in line are the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, where hurricane warnings are up tomorrow, when Irma is expected to hit those islands very, very hard.

Also preparing for a possible disaster from Irma is Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas and Cuba. There, people are stocking up on emergency supplies now, and beginning to evacuate vulnerable seaside locations. Since Irma is a few days away from these locations, its unclear exactly which sections of these nations will get hit.

Then we get to Florida. It's still possible Irma could veer away from the Sunshine State, but it's looking more and more likely Florida will be affected by Irma, and could well take a direct hit from the storm while it's a Category 4 storm.

Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 130 mph, and category 5 hurricanes have winds of 157 mph or greater.

I'll caution again that hurricane forecasts for what will happen four or more days out are often very inaccurate, so there's no guarantee at all that Florida is screwed.

However, you saw the destruction to towns in the path of Hurricane Harvey in Texas that were hit when Harvey was a Category 4. This is before the epic floods started. The damage in places like Rockport, Texas looked like that of a major tornado, except covering a much larger area than a tornado would.

Harvey's Category 4 winds struck an area that had a relatively sparse population. Now imagine if the same thing hit a major Florida city like Miami. Besides the winds, the storm surge would devastate Miami, since its elevation is so low.

I don't know whether Irma will hit Miami, or some other place in Florida or miss the state altogether, but you can understand why they're very nervous there.

No evacuations order have yet been issued for any part of Florida, because it's too soon to figure out who to evacuate.  Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for all of Florida, so that emergency managers have the resources to start gearing up now if not sooner.

Still, some people in Florida have already had enough and are leaving the coast, or even the entire state before the mad rush begins.

Some of my Vermont readers are probably beginning to wonder if Irma will have any effect up here, and the answer is nobody has any clue. I suppose it's possible it could come north with heavy rain and gusty winds eventually, but that's just pure speculation.

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE

Another strong disturbance is hot on the heels of Irma in the eastern Atlantic has become Tropical Storm Jose, and it's likely to become a pretty powerful hurricane in its own right.

While nobody knows for certain, it appears Jose might head toward the northwest and miss North America, which would be a good thing. However, there's a chance it could hit the northern Leeward Islands, which I've noted are going to get blasted by Irma.

Sigh.

There's also a disturbance developing in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. That's where Harvey came from so I'm sure people in Texas are not liking this. However, if this disturbance develops into a tropical storm, it will probably meander around for awhile, and the maybe head west into Mexico, and miss Texas by a wide margin.

At least we hope so.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY NORTHEAST

Severe thunderstorm are definitely a risk today in much of the Northeast, including here in Vermont.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms in central New England, including the southeastern half of Vermont today. The slight risk extends southwestward into eastern New York and into eastern Pennsylania and New Jersey.

Severe thunderstorms are possible today in the
yellow shaded area. Areas in dark green have
a very slight chance of severe storms. 

Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats in the slight risk area, but we can't rule out a brief tornado in that region, either.

Some thunderstorms will produce torrential rains, so there's a risk of local flash floods or street flooding in a few locations.

It's a little late in the season for severe weather in New England, but it does happen in September and October from time to time.

One of New England's worst tornadoes struck Windsor Locks, Connecticut in October, 1979 for example. That one killed three people and injured dozens.

The cold front causing today's potential severe weather will slow down to a crawl over eastern New England over the next couple of days. Heavy rain will fall there, especially in Maine, where there could be a few flooding problems by Thursday.

WESTERN FIRES

We've had a lot of hazy, smoky skies over Vermont for much of the past month as major wildfires continue to blossom and grow across Canada and the western United States.

The fires got worse out west in the past few days as a heat wave accompanied by very dry air and gusty winds blew fires up into big conflagrations. We'll continue to see smoky or hazy skies for awhile. Thick haze has also enveloped the Upper Midwest from these fires.

Forest fire in the Columbia River Gorge. Photo by
Hal Bernton/Seattle Times.

But that's no big deal. The actual fires are a big deal and are causing big time havoc. About 140 hikers had to be rescued from the Columbia River Gorge Trail in Oregon when a wildfire approached them.

Firefighters are trying to protect a 2,700-year-old grove of giant sequoias near Yosemite National Park.

The largest wildfire in Los Angeles history burned around Burbank this past weekend.

An odd batch of gusty, rainy thunderstorms helped tamp the fires down, but one of the storms caused a destructive microburst in Santa Barbara.

There were so many fires burning in Washington State that ash fell like snow in Seattle, says the Seattle Times.

In Canada, fires forced evacuations in British Columbia and Saskatchewan.

Phew, busy times in the weather department lately, huh? And it looks like it will continue. Let's all hope we don't have any more mega disasters out of this spate of wild weather.

As Predicted, The Tropics Are Very Active With Storms

A disorganized Tropical Storm Harvey in the Windward Islands
Friday. It is expected to get better organized and strengthen

The tropical Atlantic Ocean, as expected, is bubbling with lots of tropical activity - a tropical storm, a hurricane that just died, and other disturbances that could form into nasty storms.  

Hurricane Gert died its expected death over the cold North Atlantic waters yesterday -- hurricanes can't maintain themselves over cold water. When they go too far north they turn into regular storms are just disappear off the face of the earth.

Gert was replaced Thursday with Tropical Storm Harvey. It was in the Windward Islands this morning, making a beeline almost due west. It could strengthen into a hurricane, and will probably hit somewhere around Belize or Hondurias or southern Mexico somewhere around Tuesday or Wednesday.

We're ahead of schedule with tropical storms in the Atlantic, though fortunately most have either been weak or hit relatively unpopulated areas. Tropical storms and hurricanes are named in alphabetical order. We normally don't get up to "H" until late September.

The race through the hurricane alphabe might be poised to continue.

Not far to the northeast of Harvey is another area of disturbed weather that forecasters think has a good chance of becoming a tropical storm. If that happens, they'll name it Irma.

If Irma forms, it's possible it could threaten Cuba, the Bahamas or Florida later next week, though we're certainly not sure of that yet.

Forecasters are also watching another patch of thunderstorms way out over the eastern Atlantic because that would could potentially develop into Tropical Storm Jose. We'll see.

Watch The Atlantic Ocean For Maybe Lots Of Tropical Storms Soon

Tropical Storm Gert, pictured here Monday morning,
is expected to strengthen far out in the Atlantic

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 through November 30.

Tropical systems can develop at any time during this period, sometimes even before or after this "official" season begins.

However, if you really want to see tropical storms and hurricanes, start now.

The heart of the season, when we get the most storms, and usually the strongest, runs from now until early October.

The bottom line is you'll see lots of news about tropical storms and hurricanes starting now.

As of this morning, Tropical Storm Gert was spinning far to the east of Florida. The bad news is Gert is expected to strengthen into a hurricane.

But the very good news is the storm will stay far off the East Coast, and accelerate toward the northeast, where it will eventually die in the cold North Atlantic waters.

The only effects in the United States from Gert will be the potential for dangerous rip currents at the beaches.

However, there are more areas of disturbed weather far out in the Atlantic or even over Africa that might develop into tropical storms and/or hurricanes. It's possible they could threaten the United States.

These systems haven't even formed yet, so it's impossible to tell now what, if anything they will do.

It's still worth keeping a lookout for this stuff over the next several weeks, though.

Some Severe Weather Today; Atlantic Tropics Bubbling

Brief funnel cloud over Potsdam, New York Friday during
a severe thunderstorm. Via Richard O'Hanlon on Twitter.

The theme of today's post is "As Expected."
Up here in New England, a cold front is coming in today, as expected. 

And, as expected, there is a chance of some severe thunderstorms, though I don't think they will be widespread.

There were scattered severe thunderstorms in New York State yesterday, but nothing major in Vermont. That was also pretty much as expected.

The timing of the cold front is such that the best chance of strong to locally severe thunderstorms this afternoon is from the Green Mountains east, and in southern New England. This is in line with what forecasters were thinking yesterday. So yes, as expected.

By the way, this won't be a mega-outbreak of severe weather. There will probably be just a few reports. Most of you who actually get a thunderstorm won't get anything too traumatic. And I'm sure several places won't get thunder at all.

We'll clear up tonight, and Sunday is going to be largely sunny and cool-ish.

Meanwhile, hurricane enthusiasts are watching the tropical Atlantic Ocean, as things seem to be coming to life there. It's August, and tropical storm chances usually ramp up about now. So yeah, say it with me: As expected.

They're watching two areas: One in the central Caribbean, the other way out over the eastern Atlantic.

Nobody is really sure if either of these two systems will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane. If they do, nobody is sure whether they will hit land anywhere. That - ugh, is to be expected. You usually can't tell what a wannabe tropical storm will do before it develops.

So ignore those people on line who take one of dozens of forecasting models, an outlier, that shows one of these things developing into a monster hurricane hitting the U.S.  That's just clickbait. People trying to get attention and possibly money.

Don't worry about either wannabe tropical system unless and until the National Hurricane Center gets a handle on how they will develop and where they will go. They'll issue warnings and alerts if need be.

Perfect Weekend In Vermont. Elsewhere: Extreme Heat and Big Typhoon

It was wall to wall blue and green in Vermont over the weekend
after what will probably be the best weather of summer, 2017

We hope you got outside here in Vermont this past weekend, as it will go down as the most pleasant summer weather of 2017.

What was not to like? Cool comfortable nights for sleeping, tons of daytime sunshine, stunningly blue skies, low humidity and a nice breeze.

The weather will go downhill a little bit, since it couldn't have gotten any better. But it won't be terrible.

There will be a few hit and miss thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak disturbance comes in.

Most of us won't get a storm, but some towns will. They will be slow movers, so anyone who does get hit could get a torrential downpour, and some street flooding, minor washouts -  that kind of thing.

After a nice Tuesday, there will also be a rising chance of showers and thunderstorms the second half of this week, too.

All this is to say the weather won't be too extreme up here in Vermont. That's not to say other areas of the world are tranquil. That's never the case. Here are two areas to watch:

PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEAT:

According to the Weather Channel, some cities in the Pacific Northwest will flirt will all time record highs this week as a punishing heat wave settles over the region.

Seattle could hit 100 degrees, and if it does, it would be only the fourth time since 1894 that has happened.

The all-time high temperature in Portland, Oregon is 107. At the moment, the National Weather Service is forecasting a high temperature of 107 in Portland on Thursday.

Other cities that could come close to all time record highs are Eugene, Oregon (108), Medford, Oregon, (115) and Yakima, Washington, (110)

It's quite dry in the Pacific Northwest, so there are fears of wildfires in this upcoming heat wave. And just try to fight a fire in 110 degree heat.

The hot weather will extend north into British Columbia, where widespread wildfires have already been burning for more than a month.

According to the CBC, new evacuation orders have gone up for some towns in the Canadian province as fires spread and the heat wave takes hold. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to tour the fire zone this week as the blazes have become a national concern.

By the way, I see no signs of that heat wave making a cross-country trek to the Northeast, so we're still safe from the sweltering. (though it will be warm and humid throughout New England Wednesday through Friday, maybe into Saturday.)

SUPER TYPHOON NORU

The first Catagory 5 storm of the season is lurking off the coast of Japan. Typhoon Noru has increased in strength and now carries winds of 150 mph. It's too soon to tell where, or even if, this big typhoon will hit land, but Japan ought to keep an eye on it.

Meanwhile in Taiwan, tropical storms in the past week have dumped up to three feet of rain in some of the mountainous areas there, causing flooding and landslides.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY:

A tropical depression somewhat unexpectedly formed just off the west coast of Florida last night.  It further strengthened to become Tropical Storm Emily by 8 a.m. this morning. Its highest sustained winds are 45 mph. Forecasters don't think it will get any stronger as it moves east into the west coast of Florida near Tampa later today.

However, heavy rains associated with the Emily could cause flooding.

Emily or its remnants will move off the east coast of Florida in a couple days and head northeast, probably to a position off the North Carolina coast. Strong upper level winds will likely prevent the system from strengthening once it gets out into the open Atlantic.

This storm is not expected to have any effect on us here in New England.