Vermont Storm Update: Still Very Windy, Wet And Wet-Snowy Thursday

National Weather Service updated snowfall prediction map issued
Wednesday afternoon. It still looks like this is going to be
an elevation snowstorm in Vermont. Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. Yellow and orange
areas should expect more than six inches of snow.

Since this is going to be a pretty good storm, it's worth updating the situation, as you're going to see a lot of rain and/or snow Thursday morning. Some of us will also see a ton of wind.  You'll need to deal with it, so here you go:

THE SETUP 

This afternoon, light north winds funneled chilly air southward down the Champlain Valley, so it ended up being cooler today than expected.  (Elsewhere in Vermont, the low level cool air couldn't make it in, so today's highs ended up in the mid to upper 30s, as forecast.

This subfreezing air today, along with occasional light snow, doesn't really mean the Champlain Valley is in for a colder, snowier storm than expected tonight and tomorrow.  In fact, as of late afternoon, the snow flurries here in St. Albans had already changed to a some light sleet, mixed with a few drops of freezing rain.  That's an indication that a surge of warmer air is on its way.

For most of tonight, at least until midnight, any precipitation that does fall will be very light and spotty.  It's not until the storm pushes in from the southwest, with its strong weather front, that heavy precipitation will get going after midnight.

HEAVY RAIN/SNOW

That front will initially bring a surge of somewhat milder air, so the heavy stuff that comes down in the valleys early Thursday seems like it will be mostly rain. However, with the weather front and storm itself strengthening as it comes in, that could cool the atmosphere a bit to produce wet snow, so it's no guarantee the valleys will be mostly rain.  Let's just call that rain scenario likely, but it's possible you could be surprised.

If it is mostly rain, it come down hard for a time in the morning. There's still a fair amount of ice and snow on the ground in northern areas.  Storm drains are clogged with ice, too. Expect some urban flooding with this rain, if the forecast comes out as expected.  More than half an inch of rain in just a few hours is expected, which would be enough to cause that kind of problem on town and city streets, and maybe basements.

River and stream flooding won't be much of an issue because a large share of the precipitation that will come down in the higher elevations will be snow.

The higher in elevation you go, the more likely you are to get snow.  It still doesn't look like there will be much in mid-elevations, say around 1,000 feet. Those areas could manage a couple or thre einches. However, it's still possible we'd get a surprise with more, but so far, it's looking like a no.

If you're up above 2,000 feet in elevation in most of Vermont, you've got a great shot of getting six inches or more of snow.  Snowfall rates up there could be in the one to two inch per hour range. Especially given that it will probably be a relatively wet and heavy snow, I wouldn't drive toward the mountains Thursday morning.

HIGH WINDS

Wind gust forecast from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
That dark orange stripe along the western slopes of the Green Mountains
in eastern Rutland and Addison counties forecast gusts of at
least 60 mph early Thursday. Lighter orange shading indicates
gusts of at least 40 mph. 

Adding to this mix is the expectations that winds could get quite strong on the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains. I mentioned this in this morning's post, and everything still seems to be aligning toward those winds.  

The strongest winds would come before or near dawn in Rutland and Addison counties, closest to those western slopes.

Winds could easily gust past 60 mph. With some snow loading on trees and power lines in higher spots, this is a recipe for power problems in and near communites like Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Mendon, Goshen, Chittenden, Brandon and Starksboro.

Those high winds along the western slopes will spread north around or just after dawn to western slope communities like Huntington, Bolton, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge and Bakersfield.

In those towns the wind will be a little lighter than points south along the Greens, but the gusts will be enough to risk some power line and tree issues.

The bottom line is you should prepare for a complicated Thursday morning commute, regardless of whether you get mostly rain, mostly snow, or strong winds.  You might want to charge your devices ahead of time, in case the power goes out.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

After the front passes, heading north and east, precipitation everywhere will change to snow but become lighter. Winds will become somewhat lighter, but remain gusty. Temperatures Thursday afternoon should keep falling through the 30s and well down into the 20s.

Given that, when you're returning home from work Thursday evening, expect slick spots from continued light snow, and water from the morning freezing on roads.

INTERESTING POST-STORM ACTION

Perhaps the most interesting aspects of this storm will actually be something that will happen after the storm actually passes by.  It could have some effects here in Vermont, but first I need to set things up for you.

The storm will head north into Quebec, and there will be strong west winds behind the storm.  As I mentioned this morning, the Great Lakes aren't frozen like they usually are this time of year.  The strong winds, unstable air and the open waters of the lakes will set up some huge lake effect storms downwind from the lakes.

There's strong indications that an epic lake effect snow band will generate itself on Lake Superior, get more energy as it moves east-southeast across Lake Huron, then heads due east across Lake Ontario into the areas near and south of Watertown, New York.

This is especially true south of Watertown in the infamous snow belt area called the Tug Hill Plateau. They are so going to get slammed.

There's a blizzard warning for this area near and south of Watertown for an expected three to four feet of snow on the Tug Hill Plateau and one to two feet in surrounding areas.  This will be propelled by winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph.  You can imagine the huge drifts, zero visibility and difficulties with this situation.

Vermont won't get anything like that. But I've seen that in cases where there's such a powerful lake effect band with such strong winds, some Vermont higher elevations can get quite a bit of snow.

The lake effect snow band, while slightly weakened will extend across the Adirondacks. Generally, the remains of these snow bands skip the Champlain Valley as the Adirondacks block the moisture associated with these snow squalls.  Still, little upper level disturbances in this fast west to east flow behind the storm can help bring some snow from this lake effect into the Champlain Valley.

People in the Champlain Valley won't get much snow out of this, but an inch or two of accumulation could slicken up the roads Thursday night and Friday.  Just sayin'.

The real point of this little story is what happens when the remains of this snow band hit the central and northern Green Mountains. Since this thing is pretty narrow, not everybody in the mountains will get a lot of snow. But in my opinion there's the potential for six or more inches of snow somewhere in the mountains of northern Vermont after the main storm.

All because of this lake effect snow band.  The snow band could move back and forth for a time spreading some snow through the entire Green Mountain chain north of Killington. Or it could focus on a specific area and really come down.  Parts of the Northeast Kingdom could also get in on this action, especially since weather patterns suggest the atmospher might interact with parts of the lake effect stuff up there.

It's not certain all this will happen. But I think it might. The National Weather Service in South Burlington isn't focusing on this right now, because they have their hands full with the immediate storm.  This post-storm snow thingy is just something to watch.

Mostly because it could help make for another great weekend of  skiing and riding, between Thursday's high elevation snow and the post-storm snow showers.

AFTER THAT

It'll be a pretty chilly, wintry weekend across Vermont, which is to be expected as the calendar just turns from February to March. But another period of warm-ish weather seems likely for the first half of next week.  Again, that's something you have to expect now that we're getting into March.

Sunday Vermont Storm Update: Still Oddly Uncertain

The latest snow accumulation map looks light, but looks are deceiving.
Those expected three or four inch totals in the eastern half of
Vermont for today involve heavy, wet snow, sleet and
freezing rain. It could be enough to trigger scattered power failures.

As precipitation began moving into southern Vermont this Sunday morning, there were still a lot of question marks as to how this storm would behave.

We knew this would be a hard storm to forecast, but this is ridiculous.

I'm not faulting meteorologists who are monitoring the storm. I'm faulting the storm, which is a supremely tricky one to forecast.

Overall, forecasts have cut back since yesterday on expected accumulations. A winter weather advisory is up south and east of very roughly a Middlebury to Newport line in Vermont today.

Precipitation types will be tricky in the advisory area.  It seems like there might be a little more sleet and freezing rain thrown in than earlier expected. With temperatures expected to be near or just a smidge above freezing in most spots, exactly what will fall from the sky today is questionable. Expect surprises.

There's still going to be wet snow in this zone, too, especially this afternoon, when winds turn a bit more northerly, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. Those under the winter weather advisory should get three to five inches of wet snow, sleet and ice, which is enough to cause some scattered power failures.

Further north and west, in the Champlain Valley, the forecast is equally tricky, though we know precipitation will be lighter there.  The questions are: Will the moisture streaming in from the storm be enough to overcome the dry air in place? Or will much of the oncoming precipitation dry up before it gets here.

The current forecasts call for an inch or two of schmutz in the Champlain Valley today, with a mix of rain, sleet and wet snow expected. It's not a huge storm here at all, but could cause some travel issues, and make Sunday afternoon a good time to stay indoors and watch football or something.

Things clear out tonight. We'll actually get a couple days of relatively mild weather (highs in the 40s) before winter returns with a windy rain storm, and an even windier and much colder Thanksgiving.  Rapidly falling temperatures and numerous snow showers on Thanksgiving will make the roads iffy, too. Oh, joy!

Off The Rails Weather Update: Big CA Power Outages, Plains Blizzard, Northeast Blast

A high risk of wildfires in California today has prompted
the state's biggest utility to cut power to large areas
so that winds don't create arcing power lines that
would set dangerous fires. 

This is another one of those weeks when big sections of the United States are getting off-the-rails weather.

The Upper Plains and parts of the Rockies are set up for a big winter storm and single digit temperatures (in October!) Coastal New England and parts of the Middle Atlantic States are gearing up for a big hit by an odd, really strong ocean storm. And California is set for huge power failures. The utilities are shutting off the juice to prevent arcing power lines and wildfires as winds there pick up.  

Once again, we here in Vermont are pretty much escaping all this drama, as we will be blessed with seasonable temperatures, some sun, especially north and very little rain.

Let's start with California:

Pacific Gas and Electric has been blamed for some devastating, deadly wildfires in California in recent years, as the Weather Channel reports. This includes the extreme fire that pretty much leveled the town of Paradise, California and killed 86 people last year.

In parts of northern and central California, extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast later today, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook. 

Winds could gust as high as 60 mph, and relative humidities are forecast to drop into the single digits. If a power line snaps in the wind and arcs and sparks, you have another big wildfire on your hands.

PG&E plans to cut power to as many as 800,000 homes and businesses in the fire risk region, and some of these outages might last for days. If there's no juice flowing in the lines and they snap in the wind, nothing bad will happen, goes the logic.

The danger of wildfires will continue Thursday in northern and central California, and ramp up in southern California, too. leading to the risk of more precautionary power outages.

PLAINS SNOW/COLD

Heavy, wet snow caused a lot of tree damage in Spokane, Washington
overnight. Photo by Liz Kishimoto/Spokesman-Review

As expected that winter storm is cranking up in the Rocky Mountains and northern Plains.  Parts of North Dakota could see close to two feet of snow out of this, which is incredible for mid-October.

A huge area of the nation, especially for October, is under winter storm warnings and watches. These extend from western Montana to northwest Minnesota and south to the northwestern corner of Nebraska.

The storm's cold front will be impressive as it crosses the Plains and upper Midwest.  I can foresee temperatures dropping by 20 or 30 degrees in an hour or so in some places.

Denver, Colorado won't get much snow out of this. But after 80 degree temperatures today, readings could be as low as 10 degrees Thursday night. But by Saturday, the temperature in Denver should pop back up to the low 60s.  Talk about whiplash weather!

The storm extended west as far as Spokane, Washington, where more than 3 inches of wet, heavy snow falling on trees still holding on to their leaves caused lots of power failures.

The snowstorm is also socking the southern Plains of Canada as well. In all areas hit by this storm, there are going to be a lot of livestock and crop losses.

NEW ENGLAND STORM

Thank goodness this long-anticipated ocean storm won't hug the coast but stay offshore. Otherwise, it would be a disastrous storm.

Even so, with the soon-to-be-huge, intense storm spinning out there offshore, it's destined to cause a lot of headaches, especially on Cape Cod and the Islands, parts of Long Island and maybe coastal New Jersey, too.

They've already shut down the ferry to Block Island, Rhode Island in anticipation of gale force winds and high seas.

Up to eight inches of rain might fall on southeastern Massachusetts, where flood watches, coastal flood watches and high wind warnings are in effect.

Yet Another Overperforming Snowstorm Socking Vermont, Surrounding Areas

A long line of cars slogs through heavy, wet snow at Exit 19 of
Interstate 89 in St. Albans late this afternoon. 

Well, this is certainly turning into a doozy of a snowstorm for Vermont and adjacent areas, isn't it.

The first half of the storm, roughly into early afternoon, really hit east facing slopes of the Green Mountains.

Some areas definitely got more snow than expected. Some examples: Marshfield reported 16 inches, Walden, 15 inches, Moretown, 14 inches.

That's a lot of snow.

While it is still snowing along those eastern slopes, it's coming down lighter now. And it probably won't get particularly heavy in those places overnight.

There will be more accumulation there, but it won't pile up nearly as fast as it did earlier today.  The mountain summits, which got tons of snow the first half of today, will continue to pile it up fast, so we'll see some pretty amazing totals up there.

We're now in the second half of the snowstorm,  The wind has shifted and increased from the north and northwest, so it's the western slopes of the Green Mountains that are getting clobbered. Road conditions deteriorated fast late this afternoon in the Champlain Valley as the snow finally started to accumulate.

For several hours at least this evening, the snow will come down at a good clip even in the Champlain Valley. Elevation will still be a factor:

Forecasters think totals will range from as little as three inches along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain, to six inches or so a few hundred feet higher in elevation and a few miles inland from the lake, to a foot or more along the western slopes well east of Burlington -- towns like Underhill, Jericho, Huntington, Bakersfield, East Enosburg, all those types of places.

These are storm totals, taking into account what already fell plus what's expected to accumulate.

Who knows, the way this storm has been behaving, there might be more surprises with even deeper snow in these communities. After all, right along the western slopes, most forecasters think the snow will keep going into Saturday morning.

Winter storm warning have been extended westward to include all of Franklin and Chittenden Counties.

Basically, don't travel anywhere tonight. Also postpone travel until Saturday afternoon, when things will have definitely improved.

It's been bad enough all day. NECN reports roughly 100 crashes and slide offs in Vermont during the day. This includes a fatal crash on Vermont 22A and several multi-vehicle pileups. Interstate 89 near Montpelier was impassable for a time due to crashes.

Power failures with the heavy, wet snow have been a problem in some areas all day. At last check, around 6 p.m. there were about 1,250 homes and businessses without power across Vermont.

I have a feeling these numbers will go up through the evening as the heavy wet snow really starts to pile up in populated areas of Franklin, Chittenden and Addison counties. Gusty winds now blowing aren't helping. If anything, those winds will increase overnight.

At least the snow will turn more powdery as we go through the night, so the chances of further heavy, wet accumulations will go down.

It's still supposed to be cold Saturday. After a mild-ish Sunday, it will be cold again Monday and Tuesday. The late week still promises to turn at least somewhat warmer. Long range forecasts are iffy, but many forecasters are dangling the prospect of highs in the 50s a week from today.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Thursday Evening Update: Fine Tuning Messy Vermont Winter Storm Forecast

The National Weather Service in South Burlington updated
their snow forecast map this afternoon. More of the area would
get more than six inches of snow than in the earlier map.
(Yellow is six inches of more. Dark orange and red is over a foot.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, and surrounding NWS offices, have spent this cloudy Thursday afternoon fine-tuning their forecasts for this messy winter storm that's coming in later tonight. It will last into Saturday, with a lull of sorts Friday afternoon.

(Pardon any typos: I had to crank this one out fast because of a busy evening schedule.)

What follows is how the National Weather Service thinks this will play out. But remember, temperatures are marginal, so there is still a bust potential.

There might be more snow than expected, or less, depending upon if the temperature during much of this thing is a degree or two warmer or colder than expected.

The nor'easter was soaking New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and environs with a soaking, flood-threat rain late this afternoon. The leading edge of the precipitation was also approaching southern Vermont around 4 p.m. today.

The precipitation will overspread the area tonight, and that's when it gets tricky. It'll be snow in the upper elevations. With that in mind, there's a winter storm warning for the entire Green Mountain chain, the Northeast Kingdom, parts of north-central Vermont and the Adirondacks.

Snow there late tonight and early Friday will come down hard, and the roads will get very nasty very fast. Elsewhere, it looks like a rain/snow mix, trending to snow in many areas early Friday morning.

When the precipitation comes down the hardest early Friday, that's when the first half of this one-two punch storm will most likely bring snow, even in the Champlain Valley. It's unclear if it will go to all snow or a mix everywhere in the Champlain Valley, but I'm thinking at least some accumulationg snow.

To be safe, expect a tricky Friday morning commute pretty much everywhere. Wouldn't you know, the worst and heaviest snow looks like it wants to come through perfectly for the morning commute.

There is a winter weather advisory for the valleys late tonight through Saturday to cover the periods of snow.

It looks like there will be something of a lull in the precipitation during the later morning and afternoon Friday. There still will be light rain and snow around. Some areas that will have had a burst of snow early Friday will go over to light rain, but the higher elevations will stay snow.

A second moderate to locally heavy precipitation will come in after dark Friday night and continue into Saturday. The mountains will continue to pick up snow. Pretty much everybody that will see some rain Friday will go over to snow.

As it looks now - again this could easily change - another one to three inches of snow could accumulate in the Champlain Valley with much more the higher up you go.  If you can postpone travel plans until Saturday afternoon, do that.

Total accumulations look like they will be really impressive in the northern and central Adirondacks with 12 to 18 inches expected. The high elevations of the Green Mountains, especialluy north, look to have something similar.

Mid elevations, including places like Montpelier, Barre, Morrisville and the valley floor in Stowe could get as much as four to eight inches out of this storm. The Champlain Valley perhaps will get two to six inches total, the most north toward St. Albans.

Much of this snow will be wet, and strong winds will develop, so there remains a risk of power failures with this.

Snow will taper off Saturday and some sun might break out in the mid and late afternoon. Don't expect much melting, though as temperatures stay at or below freezing for most of us with a gusty cold northwest wind.

Sunday looks awesome for winter sports with that fresh, deep snow cover in the mountains. Highs then will reach the 40s in the valleys and 30s in the mountains under sunny skies.

It still looks like more snow showers, then mid-winter cold Monday and Tuesday - highs below freezing again for most of us. A warming trend looks like it might start midweek. Fingers crossed!

High Winds Rake Great Lakes, Northeast, Will Still Hit Us In Vermont

High winds pushed his immense pile of ice onshore
from Lake Erie Sunday. Photo via Twitter from
Erie County ESU 

As of 6 a.m. this morning, the wind that we anticipated in Vermont really wasn't  bad at all. They were gusting into the 25 to 30 mph, which is something we see all the time.

However, the strong, gusty winds are still coming. They've just been delayed a bit

Behind the cold front that came through last night, a very subtle, barely noticeable and transient little bubble of higher pressure temporarily kept the winds at bay.  That's little weather feature is passing by to our east.

With that gone and daylight bringing better atmospheric mixing, it will get windier during the day.

By atmospheric mixing, what I mean is stronger winds aloft will be better able to sneak down to the Earth's surface at times during the day, leading to stronger wind gusts down where we live.

In fact, as we got past dawn in St. Albans, Vermont, the wind began to pick up noticeably. Winds have started to increase elsewhere in the Green Mountain State as well.

The wind in Vermont today won't be as bad as they were in places like western New York and southern Ontario, where gusts exceeded 70 mph and caused a lot of damage. (More on that in a moment, including some wild, wild video.)

Still, most of the Green Mountain State will see gusts to around 50 mph today. In some open areas, and in some spots along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, winds could reach 60 mph.

Ice shove from Lake Erie threatening shoreline homes in
Hamburg, New York Sunday. 

Since these strong winds will persist all day and overnight, that gives ample opportunity for tree limbs and power lines to snap. This probably won't rival the big wind storm of October, 2017, but I'm sure there will be issues with the electricity being out in many parts of the state from time to time.

Even though Vermont's winds won't be as bad as some other places in the Northeast and the Great Lakes, I'd keep the phone charged and the flashlights handy, because you could still lose power today.

The strongest winds will skirt most of Vermont, heading across central New York, and screaming through southern New England and parts of New Hampshire and Maine. There, gusts will go as high as 65 mph.

There's a couple other factors to consider with this windstorm. A little snow fell overnight. I received about a half inch here in St. Albans. Higher elevations got two to four inches. The snow showers wil persist today, especially in mid and high elevations. The snow will be powdery and blow around a lot.

Even though we're not talking about much snow, the strong winds will blow it around, creating areas of white outs in exposed areas along roads and highways.

The other factor is wind chill. It wasn't that cold early this morning, with temperatures in the 20s. But readings will fall all day and into tonight. The strong winds tonight will create some pretty nasty wind chill as actual temperatures sink to near zero.

That state of affairs will continue Tuesday. The wind won't be as bad - only gusting to 30 or 35 mph. But temperatures will struggle to reach the low teens at best during the afternoon, so wind chills will stay in the teens to near 20 below zero. Brrrr!

We'll finally calm down Wednesday but stay very cold - definitely more like mid-January than the cusp of March. Things will temporarily turn somewhat milder by the weekend, but by then, another storm will come in.

At this point, it's looking like another round of mixed precipitation and wind. But computer models wildly disagree on the strength and path of the potential storm. Could be weak, could be relatively strong.  This forecast will get a fine tuning later in the week.

WILD WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE NATION

Web cam image from near Kassan, Minnesota on Sunday shows
what strong winds and snow can do to a highway.

Vermont has been relatively calm with this storm so far, but that's not true elsewhere.

Power outages are a good measure: Only 500 or so outages were reported in Vermont at 8:30 this morning, before the wind really started gaining strength.

By contrast, more than 600,000 homes and businesses in the Great Lakes and Northeast were without electricity this morning.

Probably the most spectacular effects of this storm has been the ice shove along Lake Erie. Southwest winds gusted to near 75 mph over that lake, which before the storm was mostly covered with fragmented ice.

The wind shoved that ice toward the shore in western New York and southern Ontario. A boom had been across the mouth of the Niagara River, which was meant to keep the ice from blasting upstream. But the boom was no match for these crushing winds, and the ice chunks came rushing in.

The result was these sudden piles of ice that in some places were at least the height of a two story building, if not higher. There's an incredible video of this whole thing starting at the bottom of this post. It's quite a scene!

Similar ice shoves, as they're called, prompted evacuations on lakeshore communities like Hamburg, near Buffalo.

All that ice jamming the Niagara River also blocked the flow of water, causing a weird flash flood - one that was created without heavy rain, but an ice shove.

Further north, there wasn't as much ice on Lake Ontario, so ice shoves weren't as big a problem. But the open water created lake effect snows. That combined with gusts well over 60 mph, is creating a blizzard on the New York shores of Lake Ontario.

High winds gusting to near 80 mph in spots caused lots of tree damage and some structural damage in southern Ontario. A blizzard struck areas west and north of Toronto.

In the Midwestern United States, blizzards struck Iowa, Minnesota and surrounding areas as winds gusted past 50 mph. Many highways were closed due to zero visibility, and a number of motorists had to be rescued.

Here's the video of the ice shove along the Niagara River:



Another video showing the force, speed and danger of this ice shove along the Niagara:



News video showing wind damage around Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania:

Everyone Knows It's Windy. At Least Here In Vermont

An October, 2017 wind storm toppled this spruce tree in Milton, Vermont
Though there won't be widespread damage, enough wind is in the
forecast today through Saturday morning to put a few trees
and power lines at risk. 

Yeah, I woke up early this morning humming that cheesy 1967 song "Windy" by the Association, mostly because, well, the wind was howling outside my house and I think weirdly.

We've got a windy 24 hours or so to get through as the storminess that gave us our freezing rain and freezing drizzle, and this morning, plain rain, is headed up into Canada.

The storm is to our north and strengthening. There's a strong high pressure system to the west. We are in the squeeze play in the middle, and that means a windy Vermont today, tonight and Saturday.

The wind early this morning was ahead of the storm's cold front and is funneling up the Champlain Valley. Mountains to the west and east of the valley are helping channel and strengthen that wind. The rest of the Vermont and surrounding areas weren't that breezy - yet - as of early morning.

Still, even as of 6:30 a.m., there were already a handful of power outages in southern Vermont.

The cold front will bluster through with its showers, and temperatures will start to fall this afternoon. That's when the wind kicks in. It'll blow in from the west, and gust to or even past 50 mph in many locations.

This won't be the Strongest Wind Storm Ever. Not even close. But I've been surprised in some cases by this type of set up.  The wind can gain momentum as it descends the east slope of the Green Mountains.   It's possible things ould get fairly ugly at times east of the Greens.

Which means places like Ludlow, Waitsfield, Stowe and Newport, along with other parts of the Northeast Kingdom and lower Connecticut River Valley could get some particularly strong gusts, as the National Weather Service in South Burlington pointed out last evening. Again, nothing devastating, but enough to put a few trees and power lines at risk.

For now, most of Vermont and New York is under a wind advisory for gusts up to 50 mph today, tonight and Saturday morning.  I'm thinking some gusts could be stronger than that in some of the places I've outlined.

The Champlain Valley is not under the wind advisory because gusts won't be quite as strong. We're too far east of the Adirondacks to feel those downslope rushes of wind. But still, the expected 40 to 45 mph gusts are nothing to ignore.

The bottom line is - to remind you again - there is a risk of downed trees and power lines today into Saturday. Most of us will have our lights stay on and our trees stay upright. But a few of us won't.  So it's something to keep an eye on.  A few of us will need flashlights and battery operated LED candles. (No real flame candles, please. Those are a fire risk.)

Speaking of keeping an eye on things, there's hope for winter enthusiasts who don't like this rain and freezing rain we've been getting. No guarantees, but there's hope for a possible decent snowfall around this coming Tuesday.

It might or might not happen, but things are starting to come together that could make it happen. Stay tuned.

It Will Keep Snowing In Parts Of Northern New England Through Wednesday

1:50 PM TUESDAY UPDATE:

Nearly 7 inches of new, heavy, wet snow weighs down trees in
my St. Albans, Vermont yard this afternoon. 

Boy, this storm in Vermont really has been overperforming, especially in the Champlain Valley of Vermont.

The current snowstorm has unexpectedly taken over a the Green Mountain State's worst snowstorm so far this young season.

It's also probably one of the worst storms of any stripe in 2018 here in Vermont.

The problem has been the wet, heavy quality of the snow. We're accustomed to snow with a powdery consistency this far inland from the coast, but every once in awhile, we get hit the the face with slush.

Such is the case this time. The power failures have really been incredible - and dangerous - in Vermont. A good 38,000 or more homes and businesses were without electricity in Vermont as of 1:30 p.m. today and that number has been going up since early this morning. This, despite the best efforts of lots of power company crews trying to get a handle on things.

But as the snow continues to fall, they fix one problem, and then three more trees or branches fall and take out more power lines. This will only slowly get better as snow tapers off in southern Vermont, and starts to fall at a slower pace in most of northern Vermont. Plus, it will get a little cooler tonight, so the snow won't be as wet and heavy.

It will take a long time for everything to get fixed, probably days in some areas. It got so bad on Route 100 between Killington and Pittsfield that they had to close the road today. Trees were falling across the road faster than anybody could clean them up. Other Vermont roads were close off and on or the same reason - trees and power lines blocked them.

The town of Randolph has opened a warming shelter for those whose homes are cold and dark from the extended power outages that are expected to continue. More shelters might open, depending upon how fast electricity is restored.

Even in the Champlain Valley, enough wet snow has fallen to cause power problems. At my house in St. Albans,  we had 6.7 inches of wet snow as of 1:30 p.m. and it's still coming down. This is much more than expected. Trees are sagging dangerously. There's lots of power failures in Chittenden County, too.

I have a quibble with the usually excellent National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont. As it became apparent that the storm would be worse in the Champlain Valley than expected after dawn today, there still held fast to not issuing any winter weather advisories or storm warnings for that area. (Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories were correctly in effect for other parts of the state.)

The roads were a mess, the snow was coming down hard. They should have issued something to underscore the relative severity of the situation. The NWS South Burlington did issue an winter weather advisory for the Champlain Valley as of 12:41 p.m. today to highlight the snowfall that is expected to continue into the evening.

Snow totals are impressive, and they will become more impressive in some parts of Vermont, especially in the north as the storm will focus there from now on.  There's 13 inches of new snow in Wilmington and Woodford, in far southern Vermont. A foot of new snow was reported in Woodstock with 10 inches in Rochester and Reading.

There will be even more impressive totals to report by tomorrow and Thursday in the mid and high elevations in the northern half of Vermont, particularly along the western slopes of the Greens.

The snowfall is gradually becoming more oriented toward falling on the mountains. Even as snowfall rate continue to decline in the Champlain Valley, it'll keep cranking in the mountains, especially between Jay Peak and Killington.

I will not be surprised to see new snow totals near two feet in some locations.

For those commuting home this evening, expect a slushy, slippery trip. Southern Vermont is getting better, but at least light snow will still be coming down in the northern half of Vermont as darkness falls.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Kind of a Currier and Ives scene in Burlington Vermont's Intervale
this morning as yet another early season snowstorm hit.

Skiers and riders are probably rejoicing because the current snowfall in northern New England is expected to keep cranking through Wednesday in northern New England - at least in the mountains.

The storm as of the pre-dawn hours is working out about as forecast, with quite a bit of snow in the mountains, with rain and a mix in many of the warmer valleys of Vermont.  

Snow accumulation reports were sparse as of 7 a.m., but we'll get more in. The heaviest snow accumulation is in southern Vermont, though northern Vermont will get much more snow than the south from now through Wednesday night.

So far, 10 inches of new snow have been reported from Windsor, Reading and Wilmington, Vermont. To the north, high elevation East Barre has collected 5.4 inches so far.

It's a heavy, wet snow in most areas, and that spells big trouble. Vermont's power grid as of early Tuesday morning has been hit hard, especially in southern, eastern and eastern sections of the Green Mountain State. The wet snow is bringing down trees and power lines.

More than 19,000 Vermont homes and businesses had no power as of 7:15 a.m. Tuesday, and that number was rising.  New England wide, 40,000 were without electricity, NECN reported.

Web cam images out of central and southern Vermont show trees heavily laden down with snow.

Where it's snowing, which by now is pretty much everywhere,   Wet snow compacts under car tires to form an especially slick ice, so take it slow on the way to work or school today. As usual, the storm timing in the busy Champlain Valley is terrible.

A slushy commute into work this morning as wet snow
fell and clung to trees. Wet snow is more slick that powdery
snow on roads.

Rain transitioned to a heavy, wet snow just before the rush hour began. Conditions deteriorated rapidly as I made my way down Interstate 89 from St. Albans to Burlington at around 6:30 a.m. 

Yesterday, I suspected an area of somewhat heavier snow would blossom in time for the morning rush in the Champlain Valley and it looks like that materialized. 

If possible, don't even go to work today. Do your stuff from home. As for schools, a lot of them are closed anyway.  .

The storm along the New England coast is taking over, and will move northward into Maine, then sort of stall and gradually weaken. As it does, the snow will keep going in northern Vermont and parts of New Hampshire and Maine, plus areas of southern Quebec and northern New York through Wednesday.

Which to some people (Read: Me) is a real nuisance because you have to repeatedly shovel the snow away over the course of two or three days.

The valleys of southern Vermont won't get much more snow. In the Champlain Valley, temperatures will be close to or just above freezing this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, which would limit the snow accumulation.

There might be another inch or two in parts of the Champlain Valley today, another couple of inches tonight, and maybe an inch or so on Wednesday, for a total of maybe two to five inches by Wednedsay night.

Move just a little up in elevation, though, and the snow gets much deeper. Go up into the western slopes and peaks of the Green Mountains, and I wouldn't be surprised if another foot of snow comes down in some areas by Wednesday night. This is on top of what already fell overnight.

Drive the short distance from Burlington, Vermont to say, Underhill in the shadow of Mount Mansfield tomorrow,  and you'll go from a slushy meh snow cover to a deep, heart-attack snow.

Much of western Maine and parts of northern New Hampshire can expect another foot of snow, too,

Since there was already a pretty good snow cover in the higher elevations before this storm, things are getting pretty incredible for early season winter sports types.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom will get a fair amount of new snow, too. Most of that area has so far missed out on the heaviest snow, because the White Mountains of New Hampshire blocked a lot of the moisture being carried into the region on east winds.

Things will calm down temporarily toward the end of the week, but it looks like a new storm is brewing for late Saturday or Sunday. It's too early to tell how much and what type of precipitation we'll get out of that one.

"Four'easter" Still Dumping Snow. Yeah, We're Sick Of It

Here's one of a variety of forecasts for snow totals
with the latest nor'easter. Areas in pink could get
up to a foot of snow. Most forecasting indicates
this will mercifully be mostly a miss for Vermont.

To me, the sky over Vermont looks a bit ominous, which might surprise other people who are looking at that same sky.

Spoiler alert: Don't worry, I'm still thinking we won't get much snow out of this late season nor'easter in Vermont. Still, it's the type of sky that says "snow."

That's because the nor'easter - the fourth big one this month -  is still lurking to our south. It's the type of sky that comes in the hours before a snowstorm:

A high, thin overcast that keeps gradually thickening, making the sun go dimmer, dimmer dimmer until it's pretty much gone.

Despite the signs from the sky, forecast guidance still tells us the nor'easter will be largely a miss for Vermont. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a dusting to an inch south and east of a line roughly from St. Johnsbury to Rutland, with pretty much nothing north and west of that line.

The far southern Green Mountains could still pick up a couple, maybe three inches of un-needed snow from this tonight.

Still, that's better than the one to three feet of snow many of us got last week, right?

Somebody in Massachusetts is trying to coax spring
along as best as they can. 

The story is far worse further south, of course. Unseasonable winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories continue extending from Indiana and western North Carolina all the way to southern New England.

Some areas from New York City to Washington DC are likely to have one of their biggest late season snowstorms on record.

In New York and Washington, of the four nor'easters this month, this one will probably have the highest snow accumulations.

If New York and Philadelphia get more than a foot of snow, this would be the largest spring snowstorm on record for those cities. 

The accumulation will be hard to measure. This time of year, some solar radiation gets through the clouds during periods when the snow isn't coming down that hard, leading to some settling and melting. Then the accumulation picks up again when the snow starts coming down hard.

It still seems like it's a good possibility that the New York City metro area, parts of Long Island, much of New Jersey and pieces of eastern Pennsylvania could get 12 to 18 inches of snow out of this.

Washington DC which should be right into spring by now, is expecting four to eight inches of heavy, wet snow.

As you can imagine, this is one big mess that shouldn't be happening during the spring. NBC News reports about 3,700 flights canceled across the East today.

This sign pretty much sums up the mood
with repeated nor'easters and snowstorms
hitting much of the East 

All this wet, heavy snow in populated areas is causing a rising number of power failures, which will only get worse as the day wears on.  Repair crews were still trying to fix the mess left over by the previous three nor'easters when this one hits.

As I noted yesterday, coastlines in New Jersey, New York, especially including Long Island are going to be battered with this. High tides, storm surge flooding, high winds and battering waves will add to the damage that has piled up all this month.

Yeah, it's all pretty depressing if you ask me.

To make things more dreary for you, it's still not looking like any kind of full-on spring weather is coming any time soon.

Back here in Vermont, snow showers will probably add an occasional dusting of snow to some areas, especially the north and mountains tomorrow, and possibly again on Saturday.  At this point, though, I'm not seeing any blockbuster snowstorms in our near future, so we can hang onto that.

North winds will increase here in Vermont later today and especially tomorrow because of our proximity to the offshore nor'easter. That will add a windchill and a bite to the air. More clouds over the next few days will limit melting of the existing snowpack.

Still, there's glimmers of minor hope. Daytime highs in the valleys of Vermont should get barely above freezing, or least near 32 degrees each day through Sunday, which will melt the snow in tiny little increments, at least.

And it will turn somewhat warmer, but not torrid early next week. But the more seasonable temperatures next week should accelerate the gradual erosion of our unwanted spring snowpack. (And yes, not everybody considers it unwanted. I know there are plenty of winter sports fans out there, so be happy.)

It's not just us who are suffering under the weather. A strong blast of wet air is hitting central and southern California, where flash flooding is a risk through Thursday. In areas where there were big wildfires last year, very dangerous debris flows are possible, since vegetation that would hold soil in place has burned away.

There was already one destructive debris flow that killed nearly two dozen people in early January. California risks a repeat this week. As a precaution, up to 30,000 people have been asked to evacuate from their homes during this storm.

Nor'easter, Of Course Develops; But Vermont Impacts Small; South Tornadoes

Here's the Weather Channel's take on how much
snow will come out of this latest nor'easter

I knew it, I knew it, I knew it!

This past Saturday, when most of the weather forecasters were saying the nor'easter for this week would mostly be a miss, I said in this here blog thingy that I suspected that was wrong, that it would hit.  

Not to gloat, but I was right. Winter storm warnings extend from North Carolina to New England today, and a lot of people are going to get a lot of snow, once again.

The good news, if you're not a snow lover this time of year and you live in Vermont, is it still looks like you won't get much snow out of this one. In fact, northern Vermont at this point looks like it will get none. I hope. More on that in a minute.

I'll also get to those awful tornadoes in the south in a bit, too. There were some weird aspects to some of those.  Videos of the severe weather also at the bottom of the post.

Anyway, the forecast trends starting Saturday and continuing right into today track the nor'easter closer to the coast. It'll still go offshore, but will be close enough to give much of the eastern United States a pasting.

Particularly at points south, like Maryland, Delaware, western Virginia and parts of West Virginia, it's pretty odd to get a full-fledged winter storm this late in the year, the first day of spring. And it's equally odd to see forecasts of more than a foot of snow on the first day of spring in places like New Jersey and the New York City metro area. 

Most of the snow will come down Wednesday, and be accompanied by strong winds, producing near blizzard conditions in some spots on the first full day of spring. (The spring Equinox was at 12:15 p.m today, EDT)

As always, results may vary. This time of year, any East Coast snowstorm comes with marginal temperatures. A couple degrees warmer, and the snow totals would go down as it would mix with rain. A little colder, and the snow would get a little fluffier, increasing the totals.

There's little chance the snow will get much fluffier. It will be wet and heavy. Combined with the wind, there will once again be widespread power failures, just as there were in the last three nor'easters.

With all the damage over the past month, I think utility rates will rise across much of the East. Somebody is going to have to pay for all that repeated damage to the electric grid.

Once again, battered coastlines are going to be battered anew, with beach-eroding waves and more flooding along shorelines made much more vulnerable by the last three nor'easters. Winds were already increasing dramatically along parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast today and that should spread northward into Wednesday.

VERMONT IMPACTS

At this point, it still looks like it won't be too bad up here in the Green Mountain State. The far southern Green Mountains, which have gotten as much as six feet of new snow this month, are in for a little more.

This time, it looks like that region will be measuring the snow in inches, not feet. I still looks like they'll get six inches or less of snow in far southern Vermont, but that will have to be monitored.

So far, it looks like any light snow won't get any further north than Rutland and White River Junction on Wednesday and Wednesday night, but we'll of course have to continue monitoring the path of the storm. We don't want it to come further north,  do we?

The Arctic air mass over us is slowly moderating, and each day since Saturday has been getting slightly warmer, though staying way chillier than average. At least a tiny bit of snow has melted in sunny corners.

Today, with lighter winds and clouds from the storm not really getting too strongly into Vermont, readings might go briefly above freezing this afternoon. Still cold for this time of year, but we'll take anything.

That nor'easter passing by will increase the north winds, throw a few clouds our way and slow the pace at which the air warms up over us during the second half of the week. So it will stay wintry. If any afternoon temperatures get above freezing between Thursday and Saturday, it will be just barely.

Winter is hanging on.

SOUTHERN TORNADOES

Meteorologists knew since Saturday at least that parts of the Southeast were at risk for severe storms and tornadoes by yesterday, and sure enough, things got bad very fast.

A reporter with the Cullman, Alabama Tribune holds one
of the giant hailstones that fell near his house last night. 

There were at least 12 reports of tornadoes, pretty much all in northern Alabama, not far from the borders of Tennessee and Georgia.

One thing odd about this tornado outbreak, at least in my opinion, is how supercells creating the tornadoes, immense hail and damaging winds followed each other.

Usually, when a town gets hit by a tornado, emergency responders can get to the scene relatively safely, despite continuing lightning, flooding, heavy rain and sometimes hail.

Last night, one tornado hit the town of Jacksonville, Alabama, and first responders had to be warned that a second tornado (later confirmed) was hot on its heels. Even after that, a third circulation came into town, but I don't know yet whether that one touched down into a tornado.

At least one of those tornadoes hit Jacksonville State University, but thankfully the school was on spring break. There weren't that many students in the way to get hurt by the twister.

So far, I'm not aware of any deaths caused by the storms, but there were injuries. 

The supercell storms marched into Georgia later last night, and National Weather Service meteorologists there are investigating whether any of the damage around metro Atlanta and elsewhere in northwest Georgia was caused by tornadoes.

The storms also dumped huge hailstones on parts of Alabama. In Cullman, Alabama, hail as big as softballs caused widespread damage. One large car dealership alone suffered perhaps $4 million or more in damage. In some parts of town, hail was big enough to crash through roofs. 

There's still a threat of severe storms and tornadoes today across northern and central Florida, and near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

Here's a news video of hail damage at a Cullman, Alabama car dealership:



Here's what it was like inside the Cullman, Alabama Walmart during the hail. It was loud, and you can see pieces of the ceiling coming down during the onslaught:



Not confirmed as of this writing, but the damage in this video in Campbellton, Georgia had to have been caused by a tornado last night:

Wednesday Afternoon Update: The Snow Just Keeps On Coming

I showed you a pic of my back deck this morning, but
now it's even more buried because of snow sliding off
the roof and additional accumulations of snow. 

As expected, it's been snowing all day in most of Vermont, and the accumulations are getting crushing.

At my house in St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont, the storm total was up to 12.5 inches as of 4 p.m. today. That's less than many areas have gotten, but it's still a wicked pain.

The snow is rather wet and heavy and difficult to move. And as I said, it keeps coming, so the shoveling is getting extremely old.

Winter storm warnings remain up for the western half to two thirds of Vermont. Pretty much only the Connecticul River Valley below St. Johnsbury is exempt from this. Most of the Adirondacks remain under the gun, too.

Storm totals continue to impress and get more impressive. At last report, Graniteville, in central Vermont was up to 29.5 inches new. Williamstown has 24 inches new. Westfield is up to 22 inches.

A side note: At the bottom of this post, you'll see Elsa from "Frozen" come to the rescue.

In most of Vermont, except the Connecticut River Valley, expect another three to eight inches of snow by 8 a.m. tomorrow, with locally higher amounts along the Green Mountains and on the western slopes of those mountains.

The snow is getting downright dangerous. Big avalanches are fairly rare in the Vermont mountains, but can happen when there is a layer of icy snow, followed by big accumulations of wet or powdery snow, which is the case now.

Today, six U.S. Army soldiers were injured in an avalanche around Smuggler's Notch, Vermont as they were conducting mountainneering training. At least five of them were taken to a hospital, television station WCAX reported. It's definitely unusual to have such a dangerous avalanche in Vermont, so that tells you something. This was also the second avalanche in that area this week.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont took the unusual step today of warning back country skiers and riders to be extra cautious in the Green and Adirondack mountains over the next few days as the risk of more avalanches continues. 

I'm only partly dug out this afternoon in St. Albans,
Vermont as the snow relentless continues to fall

Power outages have diminished since this morning, but with more snow loading on trees tonight, there might be additional problems.

This evening's commute, and tomorrow morning's will probably be tricky once again.

The snow will finally, slowly wind down tomorrow, but some accumulation will continue, especially in those Green Mountains and western slopes. Actually, the mountains could pick up a few additional inches Friday and maybe Saturday.

As noted this morning, the weather is going to trend colder, so most of it will stick around for quite awhile. High temperatures will not get out of the 20s this weekend and the first part of next week.

And, yes, we're still looking at the possibility of yet another nor'easter next week that has the potential to dump a bunch more snow on us here in Vermont. It could still miss - it's a long way away, but the risk is still there and we have to watch it.

Now for something completely different, here's a man dressed as Elsa from "Frozen" pushing a police van out of snowbank in nor'easter-wracked Boston. I'm  not making this up:

Late Tuesday Afternoon Nor'easter Update: Storm As Predicted, But A Few Surprises

Lovely in Norwell, Massachusetts today. Photo by
Steven Senne/AP

UPDATE: 6:30 p.m. Tuesday:

The winter weather advisory in Vermont fron the Green Mountains east   has been upgraded to a winter storm warning, in effect until 8 p.m. Wednesday.

This storm is over-performing and the snow accumulations are looking like they will deeper than expected everywhere in Vermont and eastern New York.

This seems especially true in the eastern half of Vermont.  Snow is locally heavier than many of us thought. At 6 p.m., heavy snow was reported at Montpelier.

Snowfall as of 6:30 p.m. has already gone well past expectations in the Green Mountains and points eastward. East Montpelier has been clobbered by 13.5 inches of snow already. North Wolcott has already reported a foot of snow. Ten inches has already come down in Elmore and East Orange.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont says these areas are in for another six to nine inches of snow by Wednesday evening. These will be pretty damn impressive snow totals.  Especially since the center of the nor'easter passed so far east of New England. Usually, when that happens, it would be a non-event here in Vermont.

In western Vermont, the winter weather advisory remains in place, but still, four to eight inches of additional snow, is expected by Wednesday night. There might even be a little more than that in the far northern Champlain Valley and in northern New York.  Boy, this is quite a storm

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Once again, eastern New England is reeling from a big nor'easter as of late this Tuesday afternoon.

Bad conditions are about to start waning in southern New England, but were still going full tilt late this afternoon in coastal New Hampshire and Maine.

Some impressive stats are coming out of southern New England. 

Here are some snow reports as of 4 p.m. And remember, these aren't final totals. It's still snowing, and not all reports have come in yet.

Framingham, Mass: 23.3 inches
Milford, Mass: 20.0 inches
Killingsly, CT., 18.3 inches
Foster, Rhode Island: 17 inches.

Winds along the coast overperformed as well. Here are some gust reports:

Falmouth, Mass.: 81 mph
Hyannnis, Mass: 79 mph
Nantucket, 77 mph.

A mess in Falmouth, Mass today.

Needless to say, there are many, many reports of power failures and downed trees across eastern New England. 

Snowfall reports have been highly variable. A couple slow moving, narrow, intense bands of snow formed during this storm on the western edges of this storm. One parked itself a little ways inland over east-central Massachusetts, which explains the snow reports out of Framingham and Milford.

Another one set up along Interstate 91 from a little south of St. Johnsbury, Vermont all the way down through Connecticut. Through most of Vermont, the band wasn't super intense, but did enhance snowfall today.

Especially in the far southern Green Mountains, which got it again today. Halifax, Vermont reported 18 inches of snow and Newfane clocked in at 16 inches as of late this afternoon.

Mount Snow, the southern Vermont ski area, had received 10 inches of new snow by mid-afternoon today, bringing the total over the past seven days to 50 inches new.

Elsewhere in Vermont, the snow was mainly light as expected, with widespread reports of two to five inches of new snow as of around 3:30 p.m. today.

In parts of the Green Mountain State, the snow has picked up a little bit in intensity in many areas. As the sun goes down, the bit of solar radiation coming through the clouds is diminishing, so snow is now starting to stick better.

If you are not home from work yet late this Tuesday afternoon, expect some slick spots on the roads.

Generally light snow will keep coming down across Vermont through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some of those somewhat heavier snow bands might set up overnight somewhere over the area, but they won't be nearly as intense as those earlier today in southern New England.

Mount Snow Ski Area in southern Vermont received 10
inches of snow today so far, with 50 inches of new
snow logged in the past seven days. 

It's hard to say where, and even if these somewhat heavier bands of snow set up overnight, but some areas could get bullseyed by heavier accumulations than surrounding areas.

I'm thinking most places in Vermont will see another three to six inches of new snow between now and 8 a.m. Wednesday morning, with locally higher amounts.

Your Wednesday morning commute will probably be kind of dicey, so give yourself extra time for that.

As noted, further accumulations are likely during the day Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially over northern Vermont. Most places look like they'll get another two to six inches of snow during this time periods, with higher amounts in a few places in the north.

Which means that many places in Vermont will have slowly picked up at least of foot of new snow between early this morning and Thursday. We're back into deep winter, aren't we?

As noted, this morning don't count on a lot of melting of this snow through next Tuesday at least, even in the valleys. Temperatures will stay near or below normal through then. Most days through next Tuesday will feature sub-freezing high temperatures.

Here's how the blizzard looked in Hull, Massachusetts today:

Weird, Challenging Nor'easter Snowstorm Continues To Keep Forecasters On Toes

Extremely heavy snow falling in Bucks
County, Pennsylvania today. There were
widespread reports of thundersnow and
snowfall rates of at least two inches per hour

The long-promised nor'easter is now well underway in the Northeast, and it's continuing to frustrate the heck of out many meteorologists.

Early runs of computer models a few days before this storm were remarkably consistent in forecasting what this thing would do. Those same models have been all over the place - not knowing what to predict - as the storm got underway.

That's the opposite of how it usually works out. Forecasts usually get more accurate as we get closer to the storm. Not this time, really.

Broad brush: The latest trends suggest northwest Vermont will get a little less snow than we were thinking last night. As I say that, parts of New Jersey, southern New York and inland southern New England are getting blasted even more than many forecasters thought.

The bad news is this worst of the storm seems to be hitting New Jersey, the New York City metro area and on up into the lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut right at rush hour today.

Things weren't too bad earlier today in that neck of the woods, so a lot of people went to work. Now that it's time to go home, YIKES!

Snow late this afternoon is coming down at a rate of two to three inches per hour, which is amazing. Visibility sucks. And since temperatures are near 32, that wet snow compacts under car tires to create slick ice, then deep accumulations pile up on top of that. And throw in some lightning and thunder to make things really dramatic.

By the way, there's LOTS of thundersnow in New Jersey, southern New York and Connecticut. More than I've seen in a nor'easter in a long time.

Yeah, just try driving in that crap.

Additionally, this is very wet, heavy snow down there. A lot of trees and power lines are coming down.

Those bands of heavy snow are, as expected, moving north into northern New England, but the question is, how intense will the snow be tonight, given the latest computer guidance that the storm will go a little further east than earlier anticipated?

One band of snow moved northward through Vermont this morning and early afternoon, laying down a half inch ot an inch and a half of snow. But it's March, and when a weak sun temporarily struggled through the clouds, most of that melted.

The bigger band will come through tonight, so there's no snow to cause any melting

An initial band of snow with the current nor'easter dropped
0.7 inches of snow on my property in St. Albans, Vermont
late this morning and early this afternoon, but the
higher sun angle in March meant that a lot of it
melted when the sun struggled to come through the clouds

So the latest thought is that anything in Vermont east of a line from Middlebury to Newport can still expect at least six inches of snow by the end of the day Thursday. In the Champlain Valley, it may - or may not - end up being a little less than that.

It depends upon how the northward moving snow bands hold together.

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont has a fairly doubtful outlook on this, so they've downgraded winter storm warnings in the Champlain Valley to winter weather advisories. 

They're saying four to six inches - total - in the Champlain Valley. They're probably right, but this storm has held so many surprises that I'm not counting on that forecast, even though we're right at the cusp of the storm starting, when we're supposed to know what's going on.

I guess just expect lousy travel conditions overnight and on Thursday morning as we deal with this snow.

It still looks like whatever snow we get will get lighter during the day Thursday, but it will continue off and on into Saturday. There will be light additional accumulations each day through Saturday up here in Vermont, but nothing spectacular.

In the warmer valleys, there will also probably be a small amount of melting as temperatures rise just above freezing, and the stronger solar radiation in March will get through the clouds.

Speaking of computer forecasting models not knowing what's next: Nobody has any idea what the frig the weather will be like early next week. I guess we'll have to wait to find out.