"Meh" Storm Coming To Vermont Continues Very Changeable Weather Pattern

Here's that familiar National Weather Service snowfall prediction
map. This one is for late tonight and tomorrow and depicts
not such a big storm.  Most areas will have two to five inches
 of snow Yellow areas could get up to six inches. 

If you have work or fun do outside in the snow in Vermont, today's your day.

The rest of the day will be mild, and the sun will be out at least from time to time. What's not to like?

Besides, we have some see-sawing weather coming up, and you never know when will be the next good outdoor day.

The next storm, the one I explained yesterday, is making lots of headlines as it continues the flooding and some severe weather in the Southeast.  

There's quite a moisture feed into the storm in the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee and Ohio valleys with this one.

When the storm races toward New England tonight and tomorrow, that moisture feed won't be so hot this far north, so we can expect just a small scale storm.

There are winter weather advisories up in Vermont for areas away from the broad valleys, like parts of the Champlain and pieces of the Connecticut Valley.  In those valleys, forecasters are expecting two to four inches of snow late tonight and tomorrow.  The winter weather advisory zones are in for three to six inches of snow, as it looks now.

So, not a monster storm like last week, but one in which you will have to deal with.  Which means cleaning the snow off your car and driving carefully and slowly on potentially snow covered roads during the morning commute.

In far southern Vermont, the supply of moisture will be a little better with this storm than further north. However, there's a good chance that down in Bennington and Windham counties, some of this stuff will mix with sleet, freezing rain and/or rain. So it will be distinctly messier the further south you go in the Green Mountain State on Thursday.

The precipitation will tend to lighten up in the afternoon, but that's when temperatures will also start to drop.  It's the seesaw I talked about at the start of this here blog thingy.

There's a quick shot of Arctic air coming in, much like last week. That means zero degree temperatures by Friday morning and some wind chill problems, too. High temperatures won't get out of the single digits Friday afternoon, and then most of us will be between 10 and 20 below for actual temperatures late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Brrrr!!

Then we go into a dramatic warmup. Temperatures Saturday night won't really go down, and we'll bounce back up into the 30s Sunday.  In the Champlain Valley, it will "warm up cold," as I like to call it. That means actual temperatures will be on the mild side, but gusty winds will make it feel a lot colder.

It looks like a little snow and rain will come through Sunday, but it won't amount to much. Then we get cold again for Monday, but not nearly as cold as it will be Friday.

Beyond that, it looks like a storm will go by to our west, bringing in warmth and mixed precipitation next Tuesday.  That's an iffy one.  Consider that's six days away, and a lot can happen to forecasts in that time period.

It's a relatively safe bet another bout of inclement weather will come through next Tuesday.  But I'm not committing to which form that might take.

This up an down weather is beginning to give me motion sickness.

Another Messy Vermont Storm Due; Could Be A Big One

Here's that familar National Weather Service so forecast map.
The upcoming storm could dump up to a foot of snow across the
north. More or a mixed precipitation event s foreast
further south in Vermont. 

Our recent quiet winter weather is about to come to an end here in the Green Mountain State.

Yet another messy storm is on its way, and if forecasts hold, it will arguably be one of the largest if not the largest winter storm of the season.

It's another one of those storms that has a lot of question marks regarding the intensity and type of precipitation.  Yeah, I'm sick of that scenario, too.

The storm is also going to last a long time, too, starting early Thursday and going on into Friday evening.

Given the questions with this storm, expect a few surprises, as usual, but I'll at least get into the broadbrush outlook for this thing in Vermont in a moment.

WIDESPREAD BAD WEATHER

This is another one of those storms that cause a variety of bad, sometimes dangerous weather across large parts of the United States.

As of Wednesday morning, a roughly 2,700-mile long (very long!)  stripe of winter storm warnings, watches and advisories extended from western Texas all the way to Maine. That of course includes Vermont.

South of the storm, severe thunderstorms and maybe some tornadoes should hit the Gulf Coast states today and the Southeast on Thursday.  In the southern Appalachians and parts of the Southeast, up to five inches of rain could come down with this storm, so flooding is an obvious concern there.

VERMONT IMPACTS

That flooding concern in the Southeast is a hint that this storm could bring lots of precipitation to at least parts of Vermont. The storm has a lot of moisture to play with, and it seems poised to dump a good portion of it on the state. It's a complicated forecast, so there's bust potential. Anything other than locusts could come out of the sky with this one.

But here's how the National Weather Service in South Burlington and other meteorologists currently think this will play out.

It'll come through in waves, with the first one passing quickly through Vermont before and during the Thursday morning commute.  So plan on taking extra time on your trip to work. It will be the first of several problematic commutes. It'll snow hard for awhile, but it won't last long, which will leave us with maybe two to four inches of powder.

Which will quickly be covered up with a bit of freezing drizzle. Not much, mind you, but enough to be bothersome. It'll just be patches of that drizzle, or light freezing rain here and there for most of Thursday afternoon and night. The roads won't be perfect Thursday afternoon and evening, but at least it won't be too cold, so the salt should work on the main routes.

Friday, we get into the bigger Round Two. By then, a strong storm will move northeastward along or near the New England coast.  Meanwhile, cold air will be trying to push in from the northwest. When you get a situation like that, you often get a band of very heavy snow or some type of precipitation somewhere along the northwestern side of the storm.

Part of Vermont could well be in that zone, so there's a good chance that someplace in the Green Mountain State could be in that band of very heavy snow for a few hours on Friday.

It's very hard to predict exactly where that relatively narrow band of heavy snow will set up, and how hard the snow will fall.

In any event, any mixed precipitation will change to snow from northwest to southeast Friday morning and early afternoon.  It looks like many places across northern Vermont could get a good foot of snow out of this.  A winter storm watch is up for northern Vermont for this reason.

The further south and east you go, the less snow accumulation you'll get because of the longer period of mixed precipitation or even plain rain before the changeover to snow.  A winter weather advisory is in effect in the southern half of Vermont, at least for now. There's a chance that that advisory could be updated to a winter storm warning, if things begin to look even worse down there than currently forecast.

I worry that it might.  There could be a period of heavy sleet or freezing rain before the changeover i parts of southern and eastern Vermont.  It remains to be seen, of course.

Needless to say, both the Friday morning and afternoon commute will be crappy to say the least.

As always, this tricky forecast is subject to change. More mixed precipitation could work its way into northern Vermont than expected. Or the opposite could happen, with more snow and less mix in the south than we now anticipate.

Also, as usual, the tail end of the storm is easiest to forecast.  Snow will retreat to the moutains and western slopes of the Greens Friday night. The wind will pick up, so blowing snow will be a problem. And temperatures will crash with a brief shot of Arctic air behind the storm.

Saturday will see clearing and cold weather. Then, starting Sundaty,  it's back to the cloudy, mild weather pattern we've been in lately.

A (Sort Of) Sign Of Spring WIll Lead To Messy Weather In Vermont

On Thursday, a surge of warm air will bring temperatures
in the 70s as far north as Kentucky. But cold air
will hang on over New England, setting the stage
for a potentially very messy storm. 

Starting in February, usually a bit later than this, the forces of spring begin to stir in the Deep South.

Surges of warmer, more humid air begin to have an easier time working their way northward into the southeastern United States.

Meanwhile, the forces of the Arctic keep coming on strong, often leading to big temperature contrast in parts of the nation.

The result is a lot of storminess, which is why February and March are famous for big snowstorms, blizzards, icy messes, flooding rains and severe weather.  

What is arguably the first sneak peek of spring-ish warmth is pushing into the Southeast this week, which could spell trouble for us Vermonters.

Especially since the storms that have been coming ashore in California lately are making their way across the U.S., ready to feed on that southern warmth and humidity to give icky winter weather for us northerners.

The first little wave of this went through yesterday, but it was harmless. It tossed a one to three handful of snowflakes down on northern Vermont and surrounding areas, and then zipped on away.

Another disturbance comes in today and tonight in the form of a warm front. Fairly toasty air for this time of year is going to go up and over the chillier air we have in our backyards now, leading to a little snow, then sleet and freezing rain later today and tonight.

There won't be a lot of it, and it will be focused on northern areas. It will still be enough to maybe make some slick conditions later today and tonight. That could possibly last into the morning east of the Green Mountains.

Then, Vermont briefly gets into the warm air. We'll have a February thaw starting late tonight or tomorrow morning. It will last until Tuesday afternoon or evening, depending upon where you are.

Monday will be balmy, with highs well into the 40s, especially west of the Green Mountains. If Burlington gets to 45 degrees, as expected, it would be the warmest day since December 29.

After some rain showers, changing to a few snow showers Tuesday, we'll get back into the winter chill Tuesday night and Wednesday. It won't be anything extreme. Just lows in the single numbers and highs in the teens to low 20s.

But that surge of warm air will really take hold in the southeast. For instance, Atlanta, Georgia should get into the low or mid 70s on Thursday, which is 20 degrees above normal for them.

Meanwhile, the cold air to the north will be reluctant to let go. A storm crossing the nation will take hold of that spring air in the south, and once again make it ride over the cold air over and north of us.

It looks messy later Thursday through Friday, but it's still too early to say what exactly will happen around here. But there's a decent chance Vermont will face sleet, freezing rain, and maybe some plain rain or snow, depending on how much warm air gets into this storm.

Precipitation will be heavier than the light stuff coming through tonight and again on Tuesday. So whatever happens, it will be more challenging at the end of the week than it will be at the beginning.

A Challenging Weather Pattern: It Ain't Over For Us Vermonters

Riverside Avenue in Burlington this morning. Roads across
Vermont remain snow covered, icy and slippery because it's
still too cold for salt to work. Allow extra time
and be prepared for lousy driving.

As expected, it's below zero everywhere in Vermont this morning, and north winds are making it feel even worse. A little snow is lingering in some areas, but it won't accumulate much.

If you're tired of this very active weather, well, buck it up.

We're in for a stormy, challenging, wintry ride for the next week at least, probably more, and there's something in the forecast to cheer - and disappoint - pretty much everybody.  The weather pattern coming up is going to be a lot of work for all of us Vermonters. 

I'll get to that in a minute, but while we're cleaning up the snow outside, I'll clean up some more storm tidbits from the weekend.

One remarkable thing about the storm was how uniformly Vermont got hit. Most of the time, one section of the state gets really bullseyed, while others miss out.  This time, pretty much everybody got at least a foot, with just a few exceptions.

Burlington is usually one of the places that get a little less snow than others. But the storm total there is an impressive 17.3 inches.  This is the 17th biggest snowstorm on record for Burlington. That total includes 15.6 inches that fell on Sunday, making it easily the snowiest January 20th on record.

The highest snow totals I see now are across the pond in New York with 21 inches in North Hudson, New York and 20.8 inches in Elizabethtown, New York.

In Vermont, there are 18 inch reports scattered statewide, including Walden in the northeast, Craftsbury, and Sudbury, in northern Rutland County.

Snow for the season in Burlington is up to a pretty impressive 57 inches, which is 20 inches ahead of normal for this time of year.

The other aspect of the storm was the low level cold air in the Champlain Valley, that we've already talked about. It seems like Burlington and Mount Mansfield reversed each other. The high and low temperature in Burlington Sunday were 5 above and 6 below.

Atop Mount Mansfield, the high was 16 and the low was 3 above.  Very strange.

Now on to what happens next. As I said, it's busy.

TODAY:  The wind chill warning stays in effect until 1 p.m. but the entire day really will feature nasty cold. Highs will end up a few degrees either side of zero, and winds will gust to 25 mph. Expect wind chills to often be in the minus 20s.

Road conditions will remain iffy because it's too cold for salt to work, and winds will blow snow back onto the roads. Take extra time to get to your destination. On my ride in today, the snow was packed on roads and had pretty much turned into ice. They won't get much better until it gets warm enough for salt to work.

TUESDAY: Pick of the week I suppose. It will be really cold at dawn, with temperatures in most places in the teens below zero. Near Lake Champlain it'll be in the single numbers below zero and the cold spots will be near minus 20.

But, the day will be generally sunny, winds will be lighter and temperatures will "warm" into the 8 to 18 degree above range.

WEDNESDAY: Early in the morning, before dawn, both temperatures and wind will be rising. By Wednesday morning, winds will be gusting as high as 35 mph across much of Vermont and as high as 45 mph in the  Champlain Valley.

Which means there will once again be lots of blowing and drifting snow. The wind will be coming from the south this time, the opposite of yesterday and today. Which means snow that was in protected areas will now get blown about. There will be visibility problems on roads. In open areas, rural roads and driveways will once again be blocked by drifts. The work never ends.

There will also be some light snow around, especially outside the Champlain Valley. Some places could get another one to three inches.

Temperatures in some spots could make it above freezing by mid-afternoon, so a few raindrops might mix in.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: Lots of uncertain, still, but it's seeming more likely it's going to rain on our nice deep winter sports-friendly powder snow. A cold front will be approaching from the west, and a wave of low pressure will be moving up the East Coast, but it's looking like that storm's path might be well inland.

If that's the case, we could get unpleasant rainfall or a mix Wednesday night and Thursday. If by some chance the path of the storminess is a little east of forecast, we'd get more snow. Stay tuned on this one. Nobody is yet sure how this will pan out.

FRIDAY: Cold air comes in again. There could be some snow, but how much is anybody's guess.

SATURDAY: A good chance of a reinforcing shot of cold air. Some computer models give us some run of the mill snow showers and a typical January cold shot. Other models give us some nasty snow squalls and a super bitter air mass at least as frigid as the one we're getting this morning. We'll see.

BEYOND SATURDAY: It's impossible to tease out weather systems with any detail this far in advance. It looks like an active pattern wil continue into early next week, but it's hard to say if we'll get small snow installments or some kind of humdinger.

But with such a busy week coming up, it's easy to wait and see what happens a week from now.

Tuesday Evening Update: "Almost" Full Fledged Winter Storm Coming To Vermont

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has this
snowfall prediction through Thursday evening in the North Country.
Areas in yellow and orange can expect at least six
inches of snow. 

There was a break of sorts in the weather this afternoon here in Vermont. The wind died down, and almost all the precipitation ended. Many areas west of the Green Mountains had temperatures poking just above freezing. It remained overcast and dark, but oh well.

I hope you enjoyed it, because, as I noted this morning, the weather is going to get challenging, starting tonight.

We talked this morning that the weather systems coming in from the west are pretty dynamic. Nothing demonstrated that more that an EF-1 tornado, packing winds of up to 100 mph, that touched down in Cortland, Ohio.

That's incredibly far north for a tornado this time of year. A tornado warning went up for awhile in western Pennsylvania, and hail up to an inch in diameter was reported. (Video of this is at the bottom of this post.)

Rest assured we are not going to see any kind of severe thunderstorms in Vermont. It's just going to be a return to wintry weather.

I'd plan on heading out to work or school much earlier than usual tomorrow morning. This evening, a mix of rain and snow and freezing rain and sleet is going to move in. From the Green Mountains eastward, this looks like it will be almost exclusively frozen precipitation, so up to a tenth of an inch of ice will accumulate on everything outdoors.

Needless to say, roads will be quite nasty and dangerous tonight in those areas. Those roads will stay pretty much lousy all day Wednesday.

As a storm passes by just to our south tomorrow morning, mixed precipitation will change to snow area wide. It'll snow all day, and accumulations look to be even a little more substantial than I was thinking this morning.

A very rare January tornado in Ohio today. 

Snow and snow showers will keep going through the day Thursday all though they will be slowly tapering off in the valleys Thursday.

Generally speaking, this how forecasters, at the moment anyway, are thinking total accumulations will amount to by Thursday evening.  

Connecticut River Valley from about White River Junction South: 1-3 inches

Low elevations of southwestern Vermont, the Champlain Valley from about Burlington south, and the Northeast Kingdom close to the Connecticut River: 2-6 inches.

Central and northern Vermont, the northern  Champlain Valley, and the Northeast Kingdom: 4-8 inches.

Western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains, the Andirondacks, higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom: 6-12 inches, with possible spot reports of more than that.

Temperatures will fall all day Wednesday, and keep getting colder and colder Wednesday night and Thursday.

Friday and Saturday still look like they will be bitterly cold, with highs in the single numbers and lows well below zero. Welcome to January, folks!

Here's the Ohio tornado in action today. Note: strong language. But I love how the guys keep calling the tornado "a nader."

Two Very Tricky Storms To Hit Vermont, Surrounding Areas

High elevations in Vermont could look this wintry by Saturday morning
It's possible there could be scenes like this even in the
valleys by the middle of next week. 

This is the kind of week that gives meteorologists headaches.

Two strong, but very tough to forecast storms are heading our way, and things are almost guaranteed to not work out exactly how meteorologists think they will.

But they're making the attempt to predict things, and we'll see how they do.

The first storm comes in Friday.  We're in the midst of a cooling trend, and by the time the precipitation is getting ready to start during the day, temperatures will be close to 40 degrees in most areas.

No problem, you'll say. That just means we'll have a cold rain.

Not so fast. As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out, the precipitation at the start will be falling into dry air. As the air moistens from the precipitation, it will cool. So the rain will change to snow. Or at least could, if it gets cold enough. That seems like almost a sure bet in the mountains, but it's unclear if it will get cold enough in the valleys for snow.

The early betting is the rain will change to snow briefly in the valleys before the air begins to turn just warm enough to switch it back to a cold rain Friday night.

Up a little higher, above 1,000 feet or so, it's even trickier. Temperatures will be near freezing through much of the atmosphere, and that temperature profile will be complex with layers of subfreezing and above-freezing air.

That means there could be a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain above 1,000 feet Friday night. Computer models are trending a bit colder, so it might be more snow than ice up high. Time will tell. The Adirondacks are most likely to stay cold enough for snow.

Another factor that makes this upcoming storm so hard to forecast is that it will have a lot of moving pieces. One storm will get going quickly near the Great Lakes Friday and move into Quebec. A secondary storm looks like it will get going along the coast. And an upper level low pressure system will play round with temperatures several thousand feet above us, so that adds to uncertainty as to what exactly will fall from the sky.

Whatever falls, there will be quite a bit of it. The two storms will force air from different directions to collide near us. When that happens, air rises. When air rises, it wrings out moisture and does a great job of dropping that moisture as precipitation.

Which means we stand a good chance of getting another half inch to inch of rain or melted snow and ice.

The storm will move off toward the Northeast into Canada Saturday leaving us with a windy, cold day with snow showers in the mountains. Lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario might enhance the snow a bit in the Adirondacks and maybe the northern Green Mountains.  I guess the early season skiers will be happy.

One forecast map for next Tuesday. It's uncertain exactly where
that storm along the East Coast will  be, but it
could provide a snowstorm for inland areas of the Northeast.

Sunday looks quiet, but frigid by November standards. It will likely be the first day this winter that fails to get above freezing all day. Normal high temperatures this time of year, by the way, are in the upper 40s.

Next up, another strong storm due Tuesday and Tuesday night. It looks like it will be a coastal storm, or it will track up through central New England. Or, it could even go further west. It's definitely uncertain.

If it goes along the coast, that would bring Vermont the first big snowstorm of the season. Even in the valleys. If it goes more inland, it would be a mix of precipitation and/or another shot of cold rain. Time will tell.

What you've read in this entire post is subject to some adjustments. As I said, it's a complex weather scenario Friday through next week. As more information comes in, forecasts will be adjusted.

Whatever happens, it will stay wintry cold through most of next week. That doesn't mean winter is permanently here. It looks like it will warm up somewhat toward the end of the month. But the first shot of a Vermont winter over the next week looks like a messy doozy.

Kind Of A Messy Weekend In Vermont And Lots Of Other Places

Side streets in Burlington, Vermont were a bit greasy this
Saturday morning from a light overnight snow. Expect
continued spells of icy roads this weekend due to snow
and mixed precipitation

Here in Vermont, this is going to be one of those weekends in which the weather won't seem to be able to make up its mind. 

There's no big storm to report on, but enough inclement weather to kind of drive you nuts at times.

I don't really feel like breaking down when and where what type of precipitation will fall every hour on the hour through the weekend, but broad brush: Some accumulating snow in the north, a risk of light sleet and freezing rain anywhere in the state and maybe some minor thawing to the south.

Winter weather advisories are up for northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley, somewhat higher elevations in central Vermont all the way through eastern Rutland County, and in northern New York.

In these regions, look for anywhere between two and six inches of new snow, most of which will come down this afternoon through tonight.

From central Vermont south, most of the precipitation will be a mix today and tonight. Expect just about anything.

In most of the Champlain Valley, except the far reaches near the Quebec border, southwest winds aloft mean the Adirondacks will block some of the snow from coming in, so forecasters are saying one to three inches of new snow in those places.

Sunday and Sunday night are looking vaguely ugly, with a good chance of snow, sleet, freezing rain or even rain to the south during that period. None of that precipitation will come down heavily, which is great, but it will be enough to give us pause if we have to drive anywhere.

All this weather is being caused by a nearly stalled front running northeast to southwest just west of the Appalachian chain.

On the bright side, the front will sink south Sunday night, so by Monday the sun will be out, at least partially. It will still be warmish, with afternoon temperatures getting up to 30 or even a little better than that.

For this weekend, the real heavy moisture with the stalled front giving our inclement weather is staying to the south.

Flood watches for heavy rain are in effect from Alabama to New Jersey because of all the heavy rain riding northeastward along the front. In the middle of the country, an area centered around Missouri, mixed precipitation will be a problem. There might even be a smattering of severe thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast today and tomorrow.

In the Northern Plains, wind chill advisories and warnings are widespread. As noted, that frigid air isn't headed in our direction.

From southern California eastward through western Texas, there are fire weather alerts. A drought is deepening across this region. Every time it gets windy and the humidity falls this winter, the fire risk grows. It's really strange that southern California should be worried about fires now. It should be quite wet there in February.

Get Ready For More Big Temperature Yo-Yo's And Weather Whiplash

The weather this month has, and will continue to, remind
you of this as temperatures keep yo-yoing from one
extreme to another. Coming up: Another big thaw,
and then a harsh freeze right after.

This has been a terrible month in Vermont and surrounding regions if you like consistency in your weather.

It's gone from one extreme to another. You remember the record low of 20 below in Burlington, Vermont on January 7, followed by the record high of 61 degrees just five days later, followed by subzero readings again just two days later.

Temperatures and weather conditions have somewhat stabilized for the past few days, but we're in for weather whiplash again.

Here's the deal: That powerful storm in the middle of the nation is sending a warm front our way initially. That means mixed precipitation (read icy roads) overnight tonight and early Tuesday, especially east of the Green Mountains and in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.

Once the warm front is through, it'll be warm and rainy Tuesday, with highs well up into the 40s. The rain - probably more than a half inch of it - and the warmth is still forecast to maybe shift existing ice jams around, or dam up more water behind them, so look for some more local flooding.

This won't be as bad as the January 12-13 episode because it won't be as warm, there's less snow to melt and it won't rain as hard. But it's still something to watch.

Then the cold front comes through Tuesday night and temperatures will crash early Wednesday. Around midnight Tuesday night, it still might be in the 30s in some locations, but by Wednesday afternoon, it'll probably be in the low teens with a subzero wind chill.  It looks like there will be some snow showers around, too, but accumulations won't be all that great.

Thursday stays cold, with morning lows near zero and highs in the teens. Then, the rolling coaster keeps going with temperatures warming back up into the 40s next weekend.

It's exhausting!

It also looks like this yo-yo trend might continue beyond next weekend, too. The odd thing is it's beginning to look like the overall mean temperature for January will come up somewhere fairly close to normal. It's just that almost none of the individual days will be near normal.

By the way, the storm in the middle of the country has, as expected, created its own batch of weather extremes. There were a couple of tornadoes in Texas and Missouri, and blizzard conditions are ongoing in parts of the central and northern Plains. An active weather pattern indeed!

Big Ocean Waves Shock And Awe The Pacific Northwest; Storminess Spreading Across U.S.

Crashing coastal waves in Oregon sent this big log
through a motel window. At least one person died
when he got too close to the big waves this past week. 

I've always wanted to take a vacation to the coastline in the Pacific Northwest during the winter.

People say I'm crazy for saying that. After all, the Pacific Northwest is a dark, rainy, stormy place for most of the winter.

Which is why I'd like to go there this time of year.  The immense waves from giant Pacific Storms that crash onto the rocks and sea stacks are a sight to behold. And, I imagine, a photographer's dream.

This week, the Pacific Northwest got a little more than they bargained for, as the waves were even more intense than they usually are. The crashing waves yesterday were bigger than locals have seen in many years.

While fascinated to watch, you've got to be careful, as these waves can get even bigger than you'd imagine. Tragically, a man was swept out to sea in Oregon by a wave yesterday and is presumed dead.

Elsewhere along coast, the high tides and waves were enough to flood shoreline roads and buildings. A seafood restaurant and a couple of motels in Lincoln City, Oregon had windows blown out and other damage, says OregonLive.com Waves also crashed into the ground floor of a condominium, sending a woman flying across a room.

Other people had close calls, too. A woman was injured when she was knocked over by a wave a Lincoln City, Beach. She was taken to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries. Another man and his dog were swept off a beach by a sneaker wave but the man and his dog were able to claw their way back onto shore.

In Cannon Beach,Oregon a popular go to place in winter storms for weather and photography enthusiasts like me, sea water pushed into town.

There's video of this at the bottom of this post. Also some of the storminess from the Pacific Northwest is consolidating into a storm that will cause problems in much of the United States. And it will affect us here in Vermont, too.

My in-laws in Yankton, South Dakota yesterday enjoyed a mid-winter heat wave that set temperatures all the way up to 61 degrees as warm air bathed the central Plains. I hope they enjoyed it, because Yankton and a large section of the Plains is now in the path of a new winter storm.

Winter storm warnings as of this morning extended through the central Rockies into most of Nebraska and parts of South Dakota. Winter storm watches extended from South Dakota into Minneasota. Looks like there will be quite a bit of snow and wind in this band Sunday and Monday.

Since this storm will go by to the west of New England, we Vermonters are in for another spell of mixed precipitation and rain. It'll start as snow and a mix Monday night. It looks at this point like it'll be mostly rain Tuesday, before colder air comes in at night to create some snow showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.

It won't be nearly as warm, and it won't rain nearly as hard as it did a week ago Friday, when we had flooding and ice jams. This storm probably won't cause new problems in that regard, but ice jams remain in Vermont and other sections of the Northeast.

The thawing and rain could aggravate those situations and maybe cause new flooding or ice movements, so keep an eye on that one, will ya?

Now the Pacific Northwest videos

Here's an aerial view of the tides coming up onto a road in Ocean Park, Washington, forcing motorists to scramble to get out of the way:

Cold And Wet, Or Snowy And Slushy For The Next Week

Dark clouds over snow covered Burlington, Vermont just
before it started snowing hard, yet again. Spring isn't here
yet, despite what the calendar says

As I've noted the past few days, we're not in for any glorious spring days here in Vermont and the rest of the North Country, not by a long shot.

We started yesterday with many places below zero in New York and northern New England. We're starting to get to the point where it's hard to get below zero, but there you go. 

It was a whopping 20 below in Saranac Lake, New York Thursday morning, and 11 below at Island Pond, Vermont.

I'm pleased to report that temperatures will not again get anywhere near zero in the near future, but that doesn't mean we're out of winter. Not by a long shot.

A weather front is going to get hung up in a west-to east orientation from the Great Lakes into the Northeast for the next week or so.

It'll waver to the north, then to the south and back again during this time, and it's position will determine whether precipitation is falling at any given time, and if so, what kind.

Weather disturbances will ride roughty west to east along this front, causing bursts of precipitation here and there across Vermont and the rest of New England.

As it stands now, the best chances of precipitation are today and early tonight. Then somewhat of a break Saturday before more precipitation comes in Sunday and Monday, then another wave of ickiness Tuesday and Wednesday.

The trick during all these bouts of precipitation will be figuring out in advance what exactly will come out of the sky.  The first burst that moved into Vermont was snow, and it was coming down at a pretty good clip in the Champlain Valley as of 8:30 a.m. today.

It might go over to rain later today in the warmer valleys, but likely stay snow in the north central and northeastern parts of Vermont, and in the mountains.

Fronts like the nearly stalled boundary coming up for the next week are a classic battleground between seasons. To the south, spring reigns supreme. To the north, a cold high pressure system stalled in Quebec will want to feed cold air south.

We here in Vermont and the rest of northern New England and northern Vermont are caught in the battle zone between the two seasons.

Temperatures will remain right on the cusp between rain and snow, so subtle shifts in where the front is, and how much cold air is feeding in, will determine what type of precipitation will be falling at any given time.

It's really hard to tell in advance

But you can give an overall picture. First of all, snow is more likely in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire than further south in those states. The best chances of snow would be in the eastern half of Vermont, then into New Hampshire and Maine.

Today, precipitation will start off as snow everywhere, and then probably change to rain south and in much of the Champlain Valley. Expect a dusting to two inches of slush there, and two to four inches of snow far northern Champlain Valley and the eastern half of Vermont by tonight.

Today's precipitation, and the stuff that will fall over the course of the next week, will be determined by the time of day, too.

The spring sun is strengthening so even on cloudy days some of its heat gets through. Which means we'll get into a scenario where often, it will snow some at night, then change to rain during the day, then back to snow the next night.

Depending on exactly where the front is set up at any given time, some areas might stay a cold rain at night, or mix in some sleet and/or freezing rain.

I'll also note - and this is important- that the forecasts on each of the next seven days or so at least - have a BIG bust risk. The forecast has a greater than average chance of being wrong, because the slightest change in temperature could change a lot of rain to a lot of snow, or vice versa.

Still, I don't expect any mega huge accumulations of snow anywhere in the next week, except maybe in the mountains, extreme northeast Vermont and parts of northern New Hamphire and Maine

In any event, expect a dank, damp, slushy mess for the next week, considering all the mixed precipitation, cold rain and existing snow cover that we have.

That Messy Storm This Week To Also Bring Severe Weather, Record Heat

Daffodils blooming in Alabama last week after weeks
of strangely warm winter weather. 

Up here in Vermont, we're still expecting a fairly strong storm system to bring us snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, wind and wild temperature swings during the middle of this upcoming week.

Elsewhere, the storm will spread a wide variety of weather as well, including a possible severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley and parts of the Southeast, as well as record high temperatures from the southern Plains to the East Coast.

I don't think the severe weather Monday and Tuesday will be as bad as that January tornado outbreak, which killed at least 18 people across the South. 

While there might be some tornadoes with this new storm, the primary threat will be strong and damaging thunderstorm winds and big hail.

That kind of stuff can be dangerous and fatal and should be taken seriously, but it's not quite as risky as a super strong tornado roaring through.

It's been a very warm winter across the South and this storm will help add to it. Record high temperatures ahead of the storm are likely from Texas to Oklahoma all the way to the Atlantic Seaboard.

It'll turn sharply colder as the storm's cold front slices through. It's been so warm in the South that daffodils and narcissus and other flowers are blooming.

But it's still winter, so these plants could literally get nipped in the bud if the upcoming cold wave is strong enough. Plus it's only February, so there could well be other wintry cold waves over the next few weeks.

Up here in Vermont, the forecast remains the same, with snow likely breaking out Tuesday, then going to a mix of sleet, freezing rain and evetually rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.

We'll get a very brief squirt of that warm air with this system Wednesday before the storm's strong cold front blusters through. We're looking at highs in the 40s, but if the warm air can assert itself enough in the short window of opportunity it has to flood into Vermont, Burlington's record high of 51 degrees Wednesday could be threatened.

Iffy, but you never know.

Then it's back to normal February weather by Friday.

Enjoy The Powder Vermonters! Back To Schmutz By Midweek

A forecast map for this coming Wednesday shows a strong
storm that will create a variety of messy weather during
the middle of the week in the Northeast. 

The weather pattern we've been in here in Vermont has been great for the ski areas.

There hasn't been much snow in the valleys to interfere with travel, but the mountains have been getting daily installments of powder for days now.  

Jay Peak in far northern Vermont is usually the big winner in these kinds of weather situations and this has been no exception.

The resort reports 54 inches of new snow in the past week. (It's been very light and powdery, so it has packed down some over time.)

Out in the western New York lake effect snow belts, they've got Vermont beat. The town of Redfield, New York has picked up 100 inches of snow this week.

Enjoy the powder this weekend, my friends, because soon we're heading back into the rainy, icy, icky pattern we've seen so much of this winter.

A weak little system will zip by Sunday afternoon and evening, which will deposit a little more snow on the region.

Then, as we begin the work week, a new storm will form in the middle of the country and strengthen rapidly as it heads northeastward into the Great Lakes.

Since the storm will go by to the west of New England, we'll have the same, schmutzy story we've had all winter. It'll start to snow Tuesday, quickly go over to freezing rain and sleet Tuesday night, and then to rain late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

This won't melt all the snow, except in a few lower elevations where the snow cover is quite thin, but it will certainly ruin the powder.

The storm will also bring another familiar feature back: Wind. It'll be a strong storm, so expect gusty winds with this one.

After the storm goes by, it'll turn sharply colder by Thursday and everything will turn to ice again.

The storm is a few days off, so I'm sure there will be tweaks and more details to this forecast. What I've given you now is just a broad brush. That's the best anybody can do at this point.

You never know what surprises await.

Nor'easter Misses Vermont But Winter's Returning To Green Mountain State

New England snow on  a budding lilac bush
this morning, via @weathernut27 on Twitter. 

You can wipe that smug look off your faces, denizens of Vermont.

Yeah, the nor'easter missed most of Vermont last night. It snowed or is snowing in much of eastern New England from that storm, but not in Vermont.

Back to regularly scheduled spring, right? Aren't we the lucky ones?

Not so fast.

There's more weather on the way, and it's looking a bit bleak for springtime enthusiasts in Vermont this week.

Oh sure, today and much of Tuesday won't be so bad. Daytime temperatures will only be a little below normal --- in upper 30s and low 40s generally -- and there won't be any precipitation to speak of.

Then, starting Tuesday night, it goes downhill. Light rain and light snow will break out in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire Tuesday evening. It won't be that big a deal, especially in southern areas, and in the southern and central Champlain Valley.

But a light coating of snow is likely in other areas of the state, with up to four inches in the mountains.

That's just the opening salvo.

A weather front is still expected to set up just to the south of New England Wednesday, then slowly move northward through Thursday as a storm from the Midwest rides along this front.

With a cold high pressure system to the north, that means much of the precipitation will be an ugly mix - snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain.

This is especially true, it appears, the more north you go in the North Country, and this is precisely the area that missed out on the nor'easter.

I gave you the vague outline of the scenario this week, but there are lots of huge questions about how this is going to play out.

It all depends upon how that cold high pressure system to the north, the weather front to the south, and the storm from the Midwest interact. At this point, it looks like there are these three general scenarios:

If the high pressure really dominates, it might me hard for the moisture to really get far into the North Country, and the precipitation would be relatively light.

Or, the chilly high pressure might hold strong, but allow lots of moisture to flow north, giving us lots of snow and ice.

Or, the surge of warm moisture associated with the storm will overwhelm the chilly high pressure in Quebec, and we'll end up getting mostly rain in Vermont and surrounding areas.

Stay tuned for that.

This storm should depart later Friday, but then there are even bigger question marks for next weekend. Some computer models bring in high pressure and temperatures well into the 40s to near 50 next weekend -- not bad for March.

Other models bring in yet another storm, with another possibility of cold rain or mixed precipitation.

I'm beginning to wonder if we're starting to pay for our record warm winter. Is the other shoe dropping? Stay tuned.