Last Gasp Of Mega Storm Brings Squirt Of Spring Into Vermont

I spend an entire winter shoveling snow off my driveway, them
when it's warm and sunny like Thursday I throw it back on
to melt it quicker (Big snowbank in front of the house
sometimes contributes to basement flooding when it melts
so I try to proactively get rid of it.)

I was outside around my house in St. Albans wading through the snow and doing some projects here and there yesterday afternoon.

It wasn't exactly t-shirt weather, but temperatures got into the 50s with at least occasional sunshine, and I was working pretty hard. I found myself comfortable, doing my stuff in a t-shirt, no coat.

It was heavenly. Like being freed from prison, which to me was the coats and jackets I've seemingly constantly worn since late October.

Today will be even better here in the Green Mountain State, except for those next to rivers prone to ice jams. There are some light morning rain showers around, lame leftovers from an unseasonably early swarm of tornadoes in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana yesterday. (I'll get to that in a minute.)

The remains of that giant storm in the middle of the nation is pumping warm air from the south over our winter-weary landscape and souls.

Sunshine will break out again by afternoon, and in many places, including the Champlain Valley, temperatures will probably get past 60 degrees. That will be the first time since October 19 that has happened.

The only drawback is the snow is melting fast, especially in the valleys. Ice is up to a foot thick or even more on many Vermont rivers. The snowmelt will make river level rise, which will break up the ice, and create ice jams here and there.

Bends in the river and obstructions like bridges are the most likely places these ice jams can form, but  really, they can take shape anywhere. We'll want to hope the ice jams don't get going anywhere near populated areas, as these jams can produce sudden, destructive flooding. The ice jam that flooded downtown Montpelier in 1992 in the most vivid example.

Flood watches are up for most of Vermont today and Saturday to highlight the risk of these ice jam floods.

The warmth won't last long. Saturday will be close to a seasonable 40 degrees. The Sunday through Tuesday will be quite chilly. Remember, though, that we are well into March, so the bite has been taken out of winter cold snaps. So we'll have highs a few degrees either side of zero and lows in the upper single numbers and teens.

As far as snow goes there will just be some inconsequential flurries around.

This cold snap is actually a good thing. A day in the low 60s and a long period of continuously above freezing temperatures can make maple sugar producers nervous. You need freezes. This multi-day freeze will help recharge the maples for renewed sap runs.

At this point, it looks like the middle and end of next week might be ideal for those maple producers. High temperatures by then are forecast to rise into the 40s, with subfreezing readings at night. Perfect for the sugarers.

THAT STORM

Widespread flooding in Nebraska Thursday. 

The storm that explosively turned into a monster in the middle of nation Wednesday weakened rapidly on its trek through the Great Lakes and into Canada on Thursday.

However, it still had enough oomph ahead of its cold front to spin up a number of tornadoes from Alabama to Michigan.

There were 14 tornado reports Thursday, though National Weather Service meteorologists will fan out today to determine which storms were actually tornadoes and which were damaging straight line winds.

The Michigan tornadoes were fairly rare: It's odd to get them that far north this early in the season. Although at least a couple Michigan houses were badly damaged, no injuries were reported.

Tornadoes also struck near Paducah, Kentucky and Cullman, Alabama, causing added damage.

Flooding from heavy rain and snow melt continued in Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska and some other areas. At least six river gauges in the three states showed record flooding and 20 or so recorded record flooding.

Some of the flooding came on fast, says the Weather Channel. Residents of one small Iowa town were given just 10 minutes to flee.  A third of Norfolk, Nebraska, population 24,000, was evacuated.

The Omaha World-Herald reported one flood related death, and said the Missouri River would reach record levels in parts of eastern Nebraska. That would put parts of Interstate 29, the major north-south corridor in eastern Nebraska under water.

The water along the Missouri is overwhelming flood control dams. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said they must increase water releases at Gavins Point Dam in Yankton, South Dakota because so much water is coming through. These releases will contribute to the Missouri River flooding in Nebraska, but there really isn't anything anyone can do. There's too much water.

One bright side is the nation is now getting into a temporary break from all the storminess of the last several months. High pressure will control most of the nation over the coming week, which means nobody in the Lower 48, with the possible exception of Florida, will have heavy precipitation in the coming seven days.

Flood Issues Worse Than Expected In Vermont Today

Screen grab of a video by a person named Lydia who provided to WPTZ-TV
today this video of an ice jam breaking up and flowing along
the New Haven River in Lincoln, Vermont.  

Just a head's up: As of 3 p.m. today, flooding in Vermont is worse than anticipated during this brief, rainy, mild spell. This is especially true in southern Vermont.

I mentioned this morning about the ponding of water on roads. That has happened. But it has gone beyond that in a few places.

Rainfall has been heavier than expected in many areas, especially. Flood warnings are now up for Bennington and Windham counties, where there are plenty of problems.

In Brattleboro, the towns fire department said it was evacuating two mobile home parks and a senior housing complex due to ice jams and flooding on Whetsone Brook, NECN reports. Parts of Route 9 heading west out of Brattleboro are flooded.

Flooding is also reported in Grafton, Chester and Arlington due to rain, snow melt, and ice jams. A mudslide of all things was reported along Route 7A in Arlington.

Rainfall totals in far southern Vermont could reach three inches before precipitation tapers off later today.

Things aren't as bad in central and northern Vermont, but there is the risk of a few ice jams and areas of high water there today.  Some ice jams have been reported along the New Haven River in central Vermont and the Ausable River in New York, but so far there has not been serious flooding along those two waterways.

Snow cover is deeper in northern Vermont so much of the rain is soaking into the snow pack. At my house in St. Albans, the brook that runs by my place has gone up and is flowing briskly, but it is no where near high enough to cause trouble.

A cold front was slowly pressing into Vermont from the west as of 3 p.m. That will force the rain to change to snow and taper off pretty quickly once the front goes by. The threat of local flooding and ice jams will continue for several hours, though, as rain and some snow melt continue to drain downhill.

Meanwhile, virtually all of southern New England is under a flood warning as rain has been much heavier there. High winds are causing additional damage along the coast.

Big Ocean Waves Shock And Awe The Pacific Northwest; Storminess Spreading Across U.S.

Crashing coastal waves in Oregon sent this big log
through a motel window. At least one person died
when he got too close to the big waves this past week. 

I've always wanted to take a vacation to the coastline in the Pacific Northwest during the winter.

People say I'm crazy for saying that. After all, the Pacific Northwest is a dark, rainy, stormy place for most of the winter.

Which is why I'd like to go there this time of year.  The immense waves from giant Pacific Storms that crash onto the rocks and sea stacks are a sight to behold. And, I imagine, a photographer's dream.

This week, the Pacific Northwest got a little more than they bargained for, as the waves were even more intense than they usually are. The crashing waves yesterday were bigger than locals have seen in many years.

While fascinated to watch, you've got to be careful, as these waves can get even bigger than you'd imagine. Tragically, a man was swept out to sea in Oregon by a wave yesterday and is presumed dead.

Elsewhere along coast, the high tides and waves were enough to flood shoreline roads and buildings. A seafood restaurant and a couple of motels in Lincoln City, Oregon had windows blown out and other damage, says OregonLive.com Waves also crashed into the ground floor of a condominium, sending a woman flying across a room.

Other people had close calls, too. A woman was injured when she was knocked over by a wave a Lincoln City, Beach. She was taken to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries. Another man and his dog were swept off a beach by a sneaker wave but the man and his dog were able to claw their way back onto shore.

In Cannon Beach,Oregon a popular go to place in winter storms for weather and photography enthusiasts like me, sea water pushed into town.

There's video of this at the bottom of this post. Also some of the storminess from the Pacific Northwest is consolidating into a storm that will cause problems in much of the United States. And it will affect us here in Vermont, too.

My in-laws in Yankton, South Dakota yesterday enjoyed a mid-winter heat wave that set temperatures all the way up to 61 degrees as warm air bathed the central Plains. I hope they enjoyed it, because Yankton and a large section of the Plains is now in the path of a new winter storm.

Winter storm warnings as of this morning extended through the central Rockies into most of Nebraska and parts of South Dakota. Winter storm watches extended from South Dakota into Minneasota. Looks like there will be quite a bit of snow and wind in this band Sunday and Monday.

Since this storm will go by to the west of New England, we Vermonters are in for another spell of mixed precipitation and rain. It'll start as snow and a mix Monday night. It looks at this point like it'll be mostly rain Tuesday, before colder air comes in at night to create some snow showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.

It won't be nearly as warm, and it won't rain nearly as hard as it did a week ago Friday, when we had flooding and ice jams. This storm probably won't cause new problems in that regard, but ice jams remain in Vermont and other sections of the Northeast.

The thawing and rain could aggravate those situations and maybe cause new flooding or ice movements, so keep an eye on that one, will ya?

Now the Pacific Northwest videos

Here's an aerial view of the tides coming up onto a road in Ocean Park, Washington, forcing motorists to scramble to get out of the way:

Clear And Cold, But Ice Jam Flooding Vermont, Northeast Still Big Problem

The Missisquoi River in Swanton, Vermont was re-freezing
Sunday afternoon, adding more ice to an already huge and
destructive ice jam. 

Today has been one of the glorious bluebird winter days here in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast.  

Granted, it's pretty cold, with high temperatures in my area in northern Vermont only in the single digits. But there's fresh white powder on the ground, the sky is a deep winter blue. Winds are light, all in all, a very nice winter day.

But for some in Vermont and elsewhere in the Northeast, and in parts of Atlantic Canada, is another day of continuing disaster.

Those ice jams that formed with the mega thaw on Friday, are still there, and in some cases getting worse as rivers re-freeze and new ice adds to the jam.

Here in Vermont, the worst of it continues to be around the towns of Johnson and Swanton, where people are still evacuated. New evacuations are possible around Swanton, as the situation, if anything grows worse along the Missisquoi River there.

Route 78 in Swanton, a major truck route between Vermont and New York just south of the Canadian border, remains closed.  Several houses are still evacuated, and nobody has been able to get in to evaluate the extent of the damage.

A huge ice jam along the Missisquoi River in Swanton, Vermont
was diverting water into this building Sunday afternoon.

I was in Swanton this afternoon, and it appears things might be getting worse. The ice jam is stuck in place.

I'm guessing it's in part because the Missisquoi drains into Lake Champlain. Normally, the ice chunks would flow into the lake, but that part of Lake Champlain is frozen. There's nowhere for the ice to go.

Meanwhile, as noted, it's cold. I could see near downtown Swanton new ice forming on the river, floating down stream then becoming stuck in an ever expanding field of ice.

Granted, this new ice isn't thick or strong like some of the big chunks stuck in the main jam, but this new ice is clearly not helping.

Sunday, the new ice was helping to back up water along Foundry Street in Swanton, and some houses there might need to be evacuated.

Johnson, Vermont is still dealing with ice jam and flooding damage, too. Several buildings were damaged. Water inside the local supermarket was at least knee deep.

In addition to Vermont, ice jams and flooding prompted evacuations this weekend in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

The storm that caused the heavy rain, record warmth and flooding in New England before the Arctic blast arrived Saturday moved into Atlantic Canada.

They had the same problems up there, perhaps even worse than in the states. Heavy rain, record high temperatures and rapid melting of a deep snow pack caused destructive flooding in New Brunswick and Newfoundland.

For most of the region, there's no big huge storms in the near future. That's the way it looks now. Something still might get going later this week. If it does, it would affect eastern New England and, again, the Atlantic Provinces of Canada.

Light snow might affect Vermont, but after the wild weather of the past week, it won't be such a big deal.

Vermont Flooding Subsiding, Winter Is Back, Too!

UPDATE:

Last report is Route 105 near Enosburg, Vermont and Route 15 near the Wrong Way Bridge in Cambridge have reopened because of receding water.

A few locations in Vermont got as much as 2.80 inches of rain out of that last storm, which is extraordinary for February.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

It's been quite an active week in the weather department here in Vermont.

From television station WCAX: Damaging
floods in Hardwick, Vermont Thursday. This
flood was made worse by an ice jam
on the nearby Lamoille River. 

We had that extraordinarily heavy rain with the latest storm midweek, which set off quite a bit of flooding across the Green Mountain State.

That flooding is subsiding as temperatures have plunged well below freezing. The rain has changed to snow and tapered off to flurries.

The reason for the flooding was that the strong storm system, the same one that touched off all the tornadoes across the eastern and southern United States this week, was able to tap into oodles and oodles of tropical moisture and send it north.

For much of the storm, Vermont was in a zone in which that highly unusual amount of moisture was forced to ride up and over a layer of relatively cool air.

The rising air squeezed a lot of the moisture out of the atmosphere, and dumped it as downpours on Vermont.   Getting two inches of rain in 24 hours in February is extremely rare in Vermont this time of year.

Ice jam on the Lamoille River near Johnson, Vermont
Thursday.  

Many places, including Burlington, had more precipitation in 24 hours than is normal for the entire month of February.

If no more rain or snow comes down on Burlington in the waning days of the month, this will be the seventh wettest February on record, with 3.14 inches.

The flooding in northern Vermont was complicated by ice jams. The surge of water from the rain coming into rivers broke up river ice, and some of it jammed against obstructions in the waterways.

One such jam caused a damaging flood in Hardwick, which forced evacuations and flooded homes and businesses.

The flooding also closed many roads in Vermont. Most, but not all of them, have reopened.

Another ice jam formed just downstream from Johnson, Vermont. I was there, It was huge, but thankfully didn't cause major flooding. Both me and meteorologists at the National Weather Service who saw photos I took of the jam were surprised by how thick some of the ice chunks were.

After all, it's been a warm winter, probably the warmest on record,  so you'd think the ice wouldn't thicken up that fast. My theory is there was very little snow covering new ice when it formed. So in the rare cold snaps that we did have, the ice was able to thicken because it wasn't insulated by cold.

High water cascades over a falls near
Fairfax, Vermont Thursday.  

Flood warnings were still up this morning for the lower reaches of many of the state's rivers as the crests moved downstream.

These included the Winooski, Missisquoi and Lamoille Rivers, and the Otter Creek. Water should slowly subside in those stretches of river today.

Still, there's trouble spots. I notice Route 15 in Cambridge is closed near the "Wrong Way Bridge" because water is still over the road.

Plus, with the one to three inches of snow and rapidly falling temperatures last night, a lot of roads in Vermont are slippery this morning, whether or not they were affected by flooding.

The weather pattern is still active. Another storm will probably come through Sunday night and Monday with some snow, rain and mixed precipitation again, but it won't be super heavy.

Another storm, very similar to the one we had this week that caused the flooding seems like it might come through Wednesday or Thursday, those this forecast is still very iffy.

One main difference between the possible storm next week and the one we just had: There won't be as much moisture available to it. Which means we might still get quite a bit of snow, ice and rain, it won't be as heavy as the last one, so the chances of renewed flooding don't look as great.

That's how it stands now anyway. We'll keep you posted.

Severe Storms, Other Threats Widespread But At Least It's More Springlike

A good chunk of the Midwest should be on the
lookout for severe thunderstorms with
big hail today and tomorrow.  

The first severe thunderstorm watch of the year was issued for parts of the Midwest this afternoon, the latest in the year on record such a watch was issued.

There were a couple tornado watches earlier in the year, but not severe storm watches.

It's a sign of the season that there is some severe weather due. And it's well north of the Gulf Coast, too, on up into eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri.

That the severe weather threat is drifting to the north a bit is a sure sign of spring, so I guess that's the silver lining with this thing.

The other silver lining is that although a couple brief tornadoes might spin up in the area under threat from severe storms, it doesn't look as if there's going to be any of those big honking EF3, EF4 or EF5 monsters that can blow away whole towns.

That's not to mean people in the watch area should kick off their shoes, put their feet on the ottoman and relax for the evening. I'd pay close attention to the forecasts and warnings it I lived out there.

There could be gusts as high as 70 mph and hail bigger than golf balls in some of the storms within the watch area.

The severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 p.m. local time tonight, and there's nothing stopping the National Weather Service from issuing more watches either in the same spot or more likely elsewhere later tonight.

There are a few things going on that make this whole thing feel like spring. For one thing, areas near and to the southeast of the storm watch could get some flooding from heavy rain and thundestorms.

West of the storm system causing this, it's very dry and windy in through eastern Colorado, western Kansas -- that general neck of the woods. There's a red flag warning for a high fire danger in those regions.

Again, that kind of situation happens a lot when there's severe weather a few hundred miles to the east.

North of the severe weather zone, there's some wintry weather to talk about. This, too, sometimes happens during springtime severe weather, especially early in the season.

There's a winter weather advisory in a stripe from northern Iowa through central Wisconsin and into northern Michigan later tonight and tomorrow for a few inches of wet snow.

The severe weather will likely continue Wednesday, especially in and near Oklahoma. This storm really isn't the type to create a lot of tornadoes, so at worst, there will only be a handful of relatively weak ones.

However, damaging winds and giant hail are probably even more of a widespread threat on Wednesday than they are this evening.

The storminess and wet weather is going to head northeast over the next couple of days.

It'll get to New England eventually. The good news for that region is for once this isn't going to be a snowstorm. Yay!

No severe thunderstorms up that way, either.

An ice jam caused this flood in Montpelier,
Vermont in 1992. If ice jams form in
New England this week, we'd better hope they
form in unpopulated areas.  

The bad news is there's already a lot of snow and ice around, and it's going to rain on top of all that.

Areas of northern and central New York and much of New England could get some flooding out of this.

There's not going to be a widespread flood. There won't be enough rain for that. But snow and ice-clogged drains could prevent water from flowing away.

The bigger threat is ice jams. There's still an awful lot of ice on rivers in New York State and most of New England. Not much of it has melted, and the ice probably actually strengthened in the past couple days.

After all, it was below zero in some towns in northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine just this morning.

Enough thawing and rain will come down to maybe get some of the ice breaking up and moving on some rivers. If the ice gets stuck behind an obstruction, it can very quickly dam the river and flood areas behind the area where the ice is all jammed up

If these ice jams happen in the middle of nowhere, so what? A few fields might get flooded and littered with ice chunks.

But if the ice jams happen near a town along a river, there could be a very damaging flood. People who live and work in Montpelier, Vermont are still spooked by a March, 1992 ice jam that seriously flooded pretty much the whole of downtown Montpelier

I don't know if that will happen again, but it probably wouldn't be the dumbest idea in the world for Montpelier shopkeepers to start hauling stuff out of basements, just in case an ice jam dumps water into town again.

Vermont Spring Flood Threat? Well..... Maybe

In Vermont, the Burlington Free Press put out an Associated Press article last week discussing what might be a rising chances of spring floods in the Green Mountain State this spring.

Severe flooding on the Lamoille River near Cambridge, Vt.
after torrential thunderstorms and rapid snowmelt in April, 2011.  

The headline was "Vermont Snows Prompt Worries Of Spring Flooding"

That's true, but at this point, it seems that chances are spring flooding won't be extreme, unless some incredibly extreme weather comes into the picture in the next few weeks

It's true the snowpack has increased in recent weeks and rivers are very, very frozen, two factors that could contribute to floods.

However, I don't expect a big spring flood disaster like the state got in 2011 unless something unprecedented happens.

The Burlington Free Press/AP article did not say we would get a flood like 2011, but understandably the piece brought the idea up. People are still spooked by that disaster, and the even-worse Tropical Storm Irene floods three or four months later in 2011.

The spring of 2011 was a special case.  It really was a worst case scenario.

The late winter snow cover that year was among the deepest ever seen in Vermont. Many feet of snow covered the ground in the beginning of March, especially in the mountains.

Worse, that 2011 snow cover had an unusually high water content. That meant there was the potential for massive amount of water to be released when the spring thaws came.

Strong winds over a badly flooded Lake Champlain
send waves crashing onto a North Hero, Vermont
highway in April, 2011.  

And that's what happened. Still, the flooding wouldn't have been too bad if the spring of 2011 was relatively dry.  Instead, it was easily the wettest spring on record in Vermont.

Early on, in April, torrential rainstorms caused river, street and basement flooding.  A storm that caused the worst tornado outbreak in United States history in late April of that year sent record warmth and very uncommon, torrential thunderstorms  into Vermont, causing severe flooding in some rivers, especially in the Lamoille River Valley.

The huge volumes of water poured into Lake Champlain, and meanwhile, the torrential rains continued to pour down from the sky during May. The result was by far the worst flood on record in Lake Champlain.

The flood also lasted a long time, well into June, due to the repeateded heavy rain. Millions of dollars in damage hit homes, camps, roads and other properties near the lake in Vermont, New York and Quebec.

Needless to say, all those bad weather spells in spring, 2011 coming all at once is pretty much impossible to replicate.

So I don't expect anything nearly as bad in 2014 in Vermont or surrounding states.

Still, there are some things to watch for, which could cause some real flooding trouble as we head into the spring.

This Year: 

The biggest flood threat this year, at least in my mind, is ice jams. Some thaws in midwinter have left jumbles of broken ice piled up in some rivers, and those piles threaten to jam up again if higher water moves them.

Camps severely damaged by record flooding
along Lake Champlain in May, 2011.  

All the rivers have also re-frozen solidly in the face of February cold spells.

Far colder than normal weather this week will extend into March, so the river ice will continue thickening, spelling more and more potential for trouble once we get the spring thaw.

Thick ice chunks make more bigger, more solid ice jams than thin, breakable ice.

If we get ice jams, chances are they might form in fairly remote areas, so they won't be that much of a problem. So what if Farmer Bill's field goes under water for a couple days in late March?

But if the ice jams form near communities, we could have a real disaster, like the ice jam flood in Montpelier in 1991. Needless to say, the ice breakups in northern New England rivers are going to have to be watched carefully this spring.

In January, the snow pack in the mountains of northern New York, and in Vermont and New Hampshire were way, way below normal, which, had the trend continued would have greatly minimized the threat of spring flooding.

But the snow cover caught up in February and it's now near normal. The water content is pretty high in that snow, too, since last week's rainstorm largely soaked into the snow rather than melting most of it.

Still the amount of snow, and the amount of water in it, is much, much less than it was in 2011.

The longer we go into March without a good thaw, the greater the chance it will turn really warm later in the spring and melt the snow suddenly, which could cause some river flooding if we get a lot of rain.

The good news is this week, only light amounts of snow will add to the snowpack, so the potential water for floods won't increase markedly (Although there are some highly uncertain hints northern New England could get a pretty good sized snowstorm next week, which would definitely add to the snowpack)

Finally, there's frozen Lake Champlain. Water levels are a little above normal now in the lake, because of some winter rainstorms. The lake is mostly iced over, so water can't evaporate from the lake that much. Of course, evaporation only would have lowered water levels only a tiny bit.

Flood stage in the lake is 100 feet, and I think there's a pretty good chance the water in Lake Champlain will reach that height as the snow melts this spring. But that's still way different than 2011, when the water got up to 103 feet above sea level.

I can't imagine the lake remotely close to that height again this spring, unless the impossible happens and we get a lot more rain this spring than the record amounts in 2011.

The bottom line around Lake Champlain and surrounding areas:  Yeah, watch for spring flooding because there's about a normal chance that could happen. But don't panic over it. There's no reason to see signs of a watery apocalypse.

Elsewhere in the nation, places like the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and the rest of northern New England could be in for some flooding this spring, given deep snow cover in those areas.

As in Vermont, it depends on how much rain falls in the spring, and how fast it finally warms up.

Here's a video I took of the severe flooding on Lake Champlain, in Colchester, in May, 2011.