Weird Storms, Just Not Here

Turns out this probably WAS a tornado in Wilton, New York which
is in Saratoga County, not too far from the Vermont border. 

That strong weather system that affected New York and New England did create at least one tornado, and meanwhile, new storms are brewing that could cause trouble in parts of the eastern United States. Just not in Vermont.

Let's get into Friday's storm damage, then we'll get into the new storms that are pretty interesting.

In yesterday's post, I showed a photo that might have been a tornado in Wilton, New York. I wondered if it might have actually been a microburst or a hail shaft.

Nope. Looks as if that Saratoga County storm DID produce a tornado.

The National Weather  Service office in Albany, New York said the EF-1 tornado had top wind speeds of between 85 and 90 mph, traveled 1.8 miles and was about 50 yards wide. It damaged the roof of a warehouse, and toppled many trees, some onto houses.

The National Weather Service in Albany also reported something called a macroburst caused damage in an international sounding section of Herkimer County, New York, particularly affecting the towns of Russia, Norway and Ohio.

A macroburst is a burst of wind from a strong downdraft reaching the surface. As the name implies, it's bigger than a microburst, which cover much smaller of an area, but still causes a lot of damage.

The New York microburst had winds of 80 to 100 mph and covered an area 10 miles wide and 25 miles long.

Now that those storms are long gone, we have others to deal with. And they're a little strange.

First, there's Tropical Storm Arthur off the northeast coast of Florida. I'm calling this one weird because it formed pretty early in the year.  You usually don't start seeing the first purely tropical storms unti July.

Arthur is going to remain weak as it heads north. It'll brush the North Carolina coast with gusty winds and heavy showers on Monday, Top winds with Arthur are expected to stay at 60 mph or less, and most if not all of those winds will remain offshore.

Early season tropical storms aren't as weird as they used to be, though.  There has been one before July 1 every year since 2014.  In 2014, the first tropical storm didn't form until July 1. Coincidentally, its name was Arthur.

The second weird storm is something that will meander around the Midwest and East through the week.  It's a cut off low, meaning it has removed itself from the flow of the jet stream. There's nothing to push it along.

So it will sit and spin, spreading heavy, slow moving rains around the Great Lakes today and tomorrow. That's bad news, because the Great Lakes are already at near record high levels, so they don't need more runoff.

The heavy rains will shift to the Mid-Atlantic later in the week, especially around Virginia and North Carolina, raising the risking of flooding there.

This isn't cast in stone, because cut off lows are notoriously hard to forecast. The heavy rains might set up in different locations than currently forecast.

However, depending upon your outlook, this cut off is either great news or somewhat bad news for us here in Vermont.

It's good news in that it will allow that high pressure system in Quebec to sink south over us during the week, creating a long stretch of at least partly sunny and mild weather.

It's bad news in a way for northern Vermont. We finally got some good rains Friday, and could use a little more. It looks like it's going to be a dry week, though southern Vermont could get some rain early in the week.

Winter In May: A Bone-Chilling Update

It's incredibly late into the spring to be looking at a National Weather
Service snow forecast map, but here we go.  Darker shades of
blue represent two or three inches of expected snow this
weekend. Lighter blues indicate a dusting. 

Get ready folks, winter arrives, once again, Friday night.

Yes, that is hyperbole, but not by much.  When the National Weather Service in South Burlington puts out its snow forecast map this time of year, you just want to throw up your hands

That piece of the polar vortex that broke off and is heading this way is really something.  In the upper atmosphere, several thousand feet up and higher, the air will be colder than it usually is in January.

The very high sun angle, despite the clouds and wind, will of course prevent temperatures from being truly winterlike down here on the ground Saturday. But it will feel wintry enough.  

As the bitter cold settles in Friday night, a storm that's been widely forecast will move off the New England coast.  Somewhere in New England, this will be a nor'easter that drops several inches of snow. Like the start of an Arctic outbreak in January would behave.

Believe it or not, it's possible the most snow will fall mostly south and east of most of Vermont. Yeah, it's May, and we're too far north to get the heaviest snow.

However, for perspective, it IS May, and nobody is going to get feet of snow. But higher elevations could see up to half a foot, maybe.

It'll snow pretty much everywhere in Vermont with this cold blast. Even if the storm at the start of this spell entirely misses the Green Mountain State Friday night and early Saturday, the cold pool aloft will be enough to make it snow.

The high May sun will quickly create rising air currents and showers. The cold is so deep that most of those showers will come down as snow.  

In general, the NWS in South Burlington is forecast snow totals to amount to an inch or less in the valleys, two to four inches at elevations of between 1,000 and 2,000 feet, and areas above 2,000 feet collecting four to six inches of snow, maybe more on the mountain peaks.

That's the forecast as of this morning. It is subject to change.

During the day Saturday, the snow showers will go on, temperatures will stay near 40 at best, with some areas in the north remaining just barely above freezing. As that departing storm blows up over the Canadian Maritimes, it'll drive wind gusts into the 40 mph range.

This is obviously absolutely ugly for May.  This won't be the biggest May snowstorm on record for May, but it will be a shock to the system.  The snow should mostly end Saturday night, but the northwest winds will continue howling through Sunday.

I like to turn to David Ludlum's "Vermont Weather Book" to prove that it could always we worse.  We have certainly endured worst winter storms in May than what's currently in the forecast.

At least it's not May, 1834.  That year, Burlington and Rutland had a foot of snow on May 15. Two feet of snow blanketed Marshfield during that storm. Yikes!

In June, yes, June 1842, there was a dusting of snow in Burlington on the 11th that year, nad up to six inches in the high elevations. I think global warming will have prevented anything like that from happening again.

Speaking of warming, Saturday will surely be Vermont's  coldest day until November, or maybe late October.

It can't really get any colder than Saturday this time of year, so starting Sunday, we have nowhere to go but up.  It will be a slow process, though, and temperatures will stay well below normal into the middle of next week.

Sunday should make it into the 40s during the day.  A few low 50s might pop up Monday and Tuesday. But we need to be alert for the risk of frosts and freezes every night Saturday night through Tuesday night at least.  Tender outdoor plants and possibly orchards could have a tough time with this.

The warming trend seems destined to continue nicely late next week and into the following weekend. We can probably at least expect some near normal daytime temperatures in the 60s by then.]

We do often get back door cold fronts from eastern Canada this time of year, and that could temper the eventual warmup somewhat. But after this cold spell wanes in about five days, I'm pretty sure we're done with snow until next fall.

Two Destructive Storms Affecting U.S.; Some Effects Here In Vermont

Latest National Weather Service forecast snow map. Yellow and
orange areas, mostly in the Northeast Kingdom and high elevations
depict more than six inches of new snow. 

The storm that's going to sock Maine later today with a major snowstorm and us Vermonters with our share of rain and snow, has really packed a punch in other parts of the nation already.

Or at least the ingredients feeding into this storm have.

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms swept large areas of the Midwest and South yesterday.  This was  part of the energy feeding into the storm, which I will call Storm #1.  That's because a Storm #2 will create its own big havoc Sunday and Monday. More on that in a bit.

One of yesterday's tornadoes passed very close to Jonesboro, Arkansas, which was hit by a destructive tornado on March 28.  Yesterday's tornado formed southwest of Jonesboro, which is bad because more often than not, twisters head toward the northeast.

This one went east and southeast, though, damaging or destroying more than two dozen homes around Harrisburg, Arkansas, which is a little south of Jonesboro.

Other possible tornadoes were scattered yesterday across the Midwest and South.

As the storm heads east to consolidate over New England, the system's cold front will probably set off more severe thunderstorms along the East Coast from the Carolinas to southern New England, with a zone from Washington DC to New York City being the best focus for damaging straight line winds.

The storm will rapidly organize into a big nor'easter along the coast of Maine tonight. The National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine is calling this an extremely impressive storm for mid-April. More than two feet of snow could smother Mount Katahdin, and many lowland areas in interior Maine could easily close in on 18 inches of heavy, wet snow. Snowfall rates in some parts of Maine tonight will go at two to three inches per hour, which is wild.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We'll get nothing like that here in Vermont, but it will still get unpleasant in a hurry today and stay that way at least through Friday.

The storm will start with a good slug of chilly rain, possibly starting out mixed with a few wet snowflakes in the high spots.

The rain will go over to snow this evening, first in the high elevations then going down to valley floors overnight in Vermont. Far northeastern Vermont is under a winter storm warning because six to 10 inches of wet snow is likely there through Friday.

Much of north central Vermont away from Lake Champlain  has got a winter weather advisory for two to six inches of snow.  The high peaks of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks could get six to 12 inches of snow, locally more out of this.

Even in the Champlain Valley, we'll wake up to a coating of snow Friday morning.

Friday is going to be a nasty day in Vermont by April standards. Snow showers will come down in many areas much of the morning, mixing with cold raindrops in the valleys as temperatures "warm" into the upper 30s.  Strong northwest winds will make it feel even more wintry.

It's still be chilly Saturday, but brighter. Sunday looks OK before the next storm hits which I will get into in a bit.

STORM #2

Forecasters are getting increasingly worried about what will become of a storm that's been meandering around southern California for days.

It'll finally eject into the southern Plains of the United States this weekend. Ingredients seem to be coming together or a big severe weather outbreak in the Deep South by Sunday.

Details are hard to tease out at this point, but the potential is at least there for strong, long lasting tornadoes from Louisiana to Florida.  This still might or might not happen, as a few factors could limit the severe weather. But at this point, things don't look good, and  people in the Deep South ought to be thinking about where they would go in a huge jiffy if these big tornadoes do develop. It's looking like a distinct possibility.

Storm #2 will turn into a strong system as it heads into the Great Lakes Monday.  Up here in Vermont, the early indications are we'll get a relatively mild day with a good chunk of wind and rain Monday, followed by an extended period of March-like temperatures following the storm.

"Wrong Way" Ocean Storm To Give Vermont Usual April Yuck

One forecast map of the storm which is expected to be
off the New England coast late tonight. Normally, you'd
expect a storm like this to move northeastward toward
Atlantic Canada. Instead, it will move in the opposite
direction, then south, then southeast to the middle
of the Atlantic Ocean. 

On the bright side, a very strong, enormous storm in the Atlantic Ocean is far enough away from the East Coast that it won't cause a weather disaster.

On the not so bright side, yuck is the word for New England weather today and to a lesser extent tomorrow.

The cold rain, mixed with snow expected in Vermont is nothing out of the ordinary for the Green Mountain State in early April.

It does dampen spring spirits, however.  But - spoiler alert - we should be back in relatively springlike conditions starting Saturday, when temperatures will rebound into the 50s. That kind of mild-ish weather will last well into next week.

The storm has already caused some problems. When it was developing over the Southeastern United States a couple days ago, it unleashed some tornadoes that damaged or destroyed several homes in Alabama and Georgia.

Surf and gusty winds emanating from the offshore storm will cause beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding in spots from Florida to Maine.

ODD STORM

The massive ocean storm is expected to remain weird. I told you the other day how weather is coming in from the east and heading west over us, which is opposite of what normally happens.

The storm is also expected to do an odd loop. It was headed northeastward in the open Atlantic, like a normal storm would. Then it's going to turn west and then southwestward past New England.  So it will - for a time at least - essentially be a southwestward moving nor'easter.  Exactly opposite of normal.

Figure that one out. I guess we'll call this the Great Wrong Way Storm Of 2020, right?

Eventually, over the weekend, the storm will move south, than southeastward well out into the Atlantic and over warm ocean waters that are even warmer than normal for this time of year.  There's talk that the storm could become subtropical, which is really weird for April.

A subtropical storm is one that develops a warm core, like a tropical storm, but still retains some characteristics of a regular storm.

In any event, any kind of tropical or subtropical storm out in the Atlantic is definitely unusual.

Atlantic hurricane season goes from June 1 to November 30, but tropical storms have been seen out there every month of the year, at least occasionally. But April is the least likely month for such a thing.

There was Tropical Storm Arlene with top winds of 50 mph back on April 19-21, 2017 way out in the Central Atlantic Ocean. and Tropical Storm Ana on April 20-24, 2003.  There was also a subtropical storm way out in the Atlantic in 1992, but that's about it for this time of year in data going back to the 1920s.

There is speculation that with climate change ongoing, ocean temperatures will continue to rise, making these off-season tropical systems more likely.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR VERMONT?

Way before the storm has even a chance of becoming a subtropical storm, it will be just the usual Atlantic storm heading in that backward direction I spoke of.  As it makes its most northern approach then turns southwestward, a band of moisture is crossing New England, again backward, from east to west today and tonight while weakening.

Coastal New England will get gusty winds and more than an inch of rain out of this. Here in Vermont, many places are starting as snow this morning, but valley locations should switch over to rain or  mostly rain as the day wears on.

More snow will mix in tonight. Some valleys in Vermont will get a coating of snow this morning and again tonight. The mountains might pick up a few inches of snow. The total amount of rain and melted snow in Vermont will be mostly a quarter to a half inch. A decent wetdown, but nothing extreme.

As the storm starts to sink southward, Friday's weather will gradually start to improve, starting north and heading south.  Northern Vermont will actually be warmer than the south Friday as clouds closer to the Canadian border begin to thin out

Winds will gust to 30 mph today, tonight and Friday, adding some chill to the air.

Saturday looks nice. The storm will be out of our hair, at least in Vermont. Winds will be lighter, there will be at least some sun and temperatures will pop up into the low 50s, which is a bit milder than normal for this time of year.

New York Homes Turned Into Ice Castles

One of the houses at Hoover Beach in Hamburg, New York covered
with ice after large waves from Lake Erie sprayed the houses
with water amid subfreezing temperatures last week. 

Not all areas of western New York were hit by heavy lake effect snow squalls last week

Depending upon where the bands set up, you either measured the snow in feet, or you got out a broom and swept away a dusting of it.

The town of Hamburg, New York, right on the shores of Lake Erie, only managed about six inches of new snow.

Still,  Lake Erie is oddly unfrozen for this time of year.  Which is why those heavy lake effect snows happen. The unfrozen Lake Erie also created another problem besides blizzards.  

For a couple days last week the winds absolutely screamed from the west off the lakes. This generated some awfully big waves on those  lakes. Plus, lake levels are much above normal, so the water is already closer than it usually is to lakeshore homes.

In Hamburg, New York, Lake Erie waves crashing onto the shore created some odd ice castles. At least three homes were encased in thick ice from waves hitting the shore, causing spray to fly through the  air in the gale and onto the houses.

During the storm, occupants had to basically chisel their way out of at least one of the homes.  Ed Mis, the owner of one of the houses, told television station WGRZ that the front of his house is encased in ice one to three feet thick.  One side of a neighbor's house is buried in ice almost to the roof.

It's unclear how badly damaged the houses are. It could be minor, who knows?  Homeowners will need to wait for the ice to melt before figuring that out.  Daytime temperatures in the area are forecast to be in the 40s for much of this week, so maybe at least some of the ice will come off the structures.

Here's a video of what it looked like:

Vermont Should Expect Rapid Weather Changes Today With Storm

Amid a cold rain Thursday morning, areas around my house in St. Albans,
Vermont took on a gloomy, early March like feel

As of 10 a.m. Thursday, the storm blowing through Vermont is acting pretty much as expected, which is a testament to the meteorologists who have been covering this thing for the past couple of days.

The main differences from predictions so far is that we have trended more toward rain in the valleys and mid-elevations.  It seems like only areas above 2,000 feet have gotten any snow worth talking about.

Downslope wind reports along the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains have, as of 9 a.m., not been as spectacular as forecast. However, the most favorable conditions for those winds were only just coming across the state.

As of 8:50 a.m. the highest wind gusts I found at non-mountaintop locations were 49 mph at Mendon and Lake Dunmore and 48 mph in the Nashville section of Jericho.

Vermont Outage Map had about 3,000 homes and businesses without power, scattered across the state, as of 10 a.m. Thursday.

 It seems like any snow that's been mixing in through the valleys or mid-elevations comes with bursts of heavier precipitation, which is normal. As the storm consolidates and strengthens as it moves through it will cool the atmosphere, which is just starting to lower the elevations at which it is snowing.  I noticed Montpelier switched from rain to snow at around 9 a.m.

Those towns that are still in the rain still face the risk of some street flooding from clogged drains and heavy bursts of rain.

The strong front with this storm is moving southwest to northeast across Vermont.  Immediately behind the front, temperatures drop and things switch very quickly to snow.   Since the cold front (really technically something called an occluded front) is coming at us at an odd angle, Bennington was the first Vermont town to feel the temperature drop.

They went from 43 degrees at 8 a.m. with a gusty southeast wind to 34 degrees just before 9 a.m. behind the front with a gusty southwest wind.  The front was moving fairly fast. It had just passed through Rutland at 10 a.m., with precipitation in the process of changing to snow.

This very noticeable switch in the weather will progress across the rest of the state from southwest to northeast for the rest of the morning and early afternoon.

Everybody will get into the snow amid falling temperatures by this afternoon as the front goes through.  However, the best moisture with this storm fades shortly after the front passes, so nobody, except the higher mountaintops, will get  huge amounts of snow. Still, a quick one to three inches, locally more is still a good bet this afternoon.

Those wet roads will freeze and get covered with snow, so you'll have to deal with that on the way home from work this afternoon.

The main storm will be done by evening, but the lingering snow showers will last all the way into Saturday, especially in the mountains.

As I mentioned, there's an epic lake effect blizzard coming to the shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario in New York.  Off of lake Ontario, they are still expecting up to four feet of snow from this.

The lake effect snow will have enough oomph to make it all the way to the Green Mountains in weakened form, allowing for several inches of snow to pile up in the northern and central Green Mountains by Saturday night.

Another weather front will sag southward from north to south across Vermont Friday.  That front is weak, but will provide a focus for those lake effect snow showers. Which means even in the valleys,  at least a dusting to two inches, locally more, will accumulate.  This even includes the Champlain Valley, in my opinion.

Some areas of northern Vermont, expecially mountains from Sugarbush north to Jay Peak,  could get six inches or more out of that lake effect.

Storm Update: Slushy, Windy, Then Cold

That snowfall forecast map from the Natonal Weather Service
again.  Valley locations might just get a slushy coating
out of this, if current forecasts verify. Heavy accumulations
would be limited to the places about 2,000 feet above
sea level. 

As usual, we'll update the status of that expected storm now that it's actually closer to hitting us here in Vermont.

Since yesterday, it seems the forecast models have warmed up this storm locally just a smidge.  If that comes to pass, most places around here won't get too much snow, except in the high elevations.

There are a few winter weather advisories for snow. One is in the two southernmost counties of Vermont, where two to six inches of wet snow is likely at elevations above 1,000 feet.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks over in New York could get similar amounts.

The rest of us, at least those of us not way up high in elevation can expect one to three inches of slush and goop, along with a cold rain, at least during the main storm.

That being said, if the temperatures drop a degree or two more than expected late tonight and Thursday morning, heavier snow would still be in play.

In fact, I do detect a slight disagreement between the National Weather Service offices in South Burlington, Vermont and Gray, Maine.   The Maine forecasting office is a little more bullish on snow accumulation near the Connecticut River, which would imply a bit more snow in eastern Vermont than is currently being forecast.

But not much, and the differences are all just noise.

By the way, if you plan to venture to Quebec tomorrow, don't. There will be wet snow and strong winds up there, especialy from about Montreal north. It'll be pretty messy.

Some light snow and rain will harass us today, but the main show still looks like it will hit late tonight and the first half of Thursday.  

The storm center will be over Lake Ontario and will swing a strenthening front through here late tonight and Thursday.  This looks like it will produce a relatively brief, but heavy thump of precipitation.

As it stands now, it looks like that big thump of precipitation will mostly be a cold rain in the valleys, but again, don't be surprised if more snow enters the picture. Temperatures are marginal.  The front that is coming through will be frisky enough to possibly give a few of us a nice rumble of thunder or two.

Strong southeast winds ahead of this will cross over the the Green Mountains, and possibly produce damaging winds along the immediate west slopes of those Mountains, especially in parts of Bennington, Rutland and Addison counties.

Places like Mendon, Rutland, Goshen, Brandon and Starksboro could see wind gusts of 60 mph or even a little more than that.  Winds along the west slopes of the Greens further north than this will also be strong and gusty, but perhaps not quite as strong as areas further south.

After the storm goes by we'll get three days of chilly weather, and lots of snow showers in the central and northern Green Mountains.

Part of that will be coming off Lake Ontario. Lake effect snowstorms out in western New York are somewhat rare this late in winter because much of the Great Lakes are usually frozen over this time of year.

It's been a warm winter, so those lakes are mostly ice-free. This opens the door for a big lake effect snowstorm in parts of New York. The Tug Hill plateau, the snowbelt near the lakes not far from Watertown, could get up to three feet of snow out of this.

Nothing like that here in Vermont. The high elevation snow Thursday night through Saturday will be measured in inches, not feet.

After a chilly weekend, the seesaw continues with a quick burst of warmer than normal temperatures for the first half of next week. That's at least the way it looks now

Surprise! Another Messy Vermont Storm On The Way

The familiar snow forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington. Click on it and make it bigger and easier to read.
Most places look they will get a quick thump of two to four
inches of snow, maybe less in the northern Champlain Valley

Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Or not.

Another mid-sized storm with a mixed of precipitation and hazards is coming to Vermont on Tuesday.

Sound familiar? It should.  After all, that's pretty much all we've gotten this winter in the Green Mountain State.

Already, my driveway up in St. Albans has a thick, hard, bulletproof layer of ice from all these storms that will probably never go away. I guess we'll add another layer to that glacier, huh?

Here's how the National Weather Service thinks things will play out:

Before the storm, this Monday, President's Day will be quiet. It was relatively mild this morning, with temperatures in the 20s.  Those temperatures won't rise today, because a weak cold front went through early this morning. Temperatures will drop quickly this evening then start to rise again after midnight as clouds and some wind arrives ahead of the storm.

This storm will feature a burst of snow, followed by some drizzle, freezing drizzle and, in some areas, a lot of wind. It will end with snow showers,  a possible snow squall on Wednesday and another fleeting shot of Arctic air.

This particular storm is racing northeastward and will zoom past us to our northwest on Tuesday. As it comes along, it will start us off with an initial burst of snow, especially in southern and central areas.  The snow could come down pretty hard in some areas, but it will only last a few hours, since things are moving along with this one so quickly.

Wind gust forecast map from the NWS/South Burlington.
Note the reds in the central Adironacks and spots of it
along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Those
spots could get some damaging gusts Tuesday afternoon
Much of the Champlain Valley will see lesser, but still
possibly substantial gusts in the 40-50 mph range. 

Most places will pick up between two and six inches of snow.  The morning commute, especially south and west, will be most affected by this.  The snow will start to taper off and likely mix with or turn to drizzle or freezing drizzle during the afternoon.

It's possible, even likely, that parts of the northern Champlain Valley won't see a huge amount of snow, maybe one to three inches. That's because winds will be screaming strong overhead.

The mountains will work with that strong wind a few thousand feet up to block some of of the moisture from coming into the northern Champlain Valley, which would limit snowfall.

Those strong winds a few thousand feet up are a clue to what could be the biggest impacts from this quick storm.  While it's snowing, a temperature inversion will act as a lid, preventing that wind from mixing down to the surface.

But in the afternoon, it's looking like up and down motion in the air will allow some of those screaming winds above us to mix down to the ground.  In the Champlain Valley, especially on the islands, winds could easily gust over 50 mph in the afternoon.

On the immediate west side of the Green Mountains, wind gusts could get even stronger than that.  In those wind prone areas, it's possible you could see localized gusts to 70 mph.

This obviously raises questions about how well trees and power lines will hold up.

As of Monday morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has held off on any wind advisories or warnings.  They want more data to see whether those strong winds will indeed mix down to the ground where we live.  So stay tuned.

When you're driving home in the still-gusty late afternoon Tuesday, be on the lookout for areas of freezing drizzle and  light snow, which could create slick spots.

A secondary cold front might, maybe, could trigger a snow squall or two on Wednesday.  Then we get that quick shot of Arctic air from a sprawling area of high pressure that will cover most of the nation by Thursday.  On the front side of that high, north winds in New England will keep daytime temperatures down to the single numbers in many places. Kind of like last Friday.

Winds will shift to the west and southwest on Friday, which would bring in milder air for the weekend.

Pffft! This Morning's Storm Even More Lame Than Expected

For those of you who anticipating a nice little fluffy three or so inches of snow this morning, you're surely disappointed up here in Vermont.

All most of us got was a pathetic sprinkling of snowflakes, freezing drizzle and yuck, with not much of any of the above.

Forecast models had indicated a layer of dry air above us would largely avoid Vermont.

The dry air didn't avoid us, so precipitation has been struggling.

As the day wears on, any drizzle and freezing drizzle will probably change to snow, but it won't amount to much.

A few places might end up with more than two inches of snow, but many of us won't even get that far.

Yep, a blown forecast. It happens.

Despite that, everyone, including me, is absolutely sure a quick blast of Arctic air is coming in later today for a stay unti Saturday.  This cold air is guaranteed, though exactly how cold it gets depends upon where you are.

It'll be around zero degrees by dawn tomorrow, stay in the single numbers all day, then plunge well below zero Friday night into early Saturday morning.  To me, it looks like the coldest air will be in the Northeast Kingdom.

That's because the core of the coldest air will be starting to lift off to the north and east by early Saturday morning, so western areas will be a tad warmer.

Rinse And Repeat From Last Week, With A Welcome Difference

Snow covered trees in St. Albans, Vermont last weekend. More wintry
weather is due later in the week, but nothing like the storm
we had last Friday.

The weather maps and forecasts looks an awful lot like they did about this time last week, when we here in Vermont were getting ready for a blasting from  \the biggest winter storm of the winter.

As you know, the much of the state basically shut down last Friday amid ice and blizzard-like conditions.

As the storm gathered, floods and tornadoes spun up in the South, and the system organized itself for a rampaging trip toward New England.

This  current Tuesday morning, heavy rains and extensive flooding is hitting the South, and a storm is forecast to organize and head toward New England by Thursday. Sound familiar?

Before you panic, though, this next one won't be nearly as bad as last week's. There's a few differences this time that will prevent the storm from turning into a New England monster.

Still, expect some more snow, and maybe some ice on Thursday.

Just like last week, there a couple waves to this storm.  The first, the one that helped produce very heavy rain in the South Monday, will skirt by southern New England as a weak system today.  Here in Vermont, this will cause nothing more than a few areas of sprinkles, wet snow flakes and drizzle, mostly south and east.

This weak little storm will blow up into a huge monster, but not until it gets up by Newfoundland and out into the North Atlantic.  By then, it will be a hurricane-force of nature. But it won't be our problem, since it will be about 1,500 past us by the time it gets to be this enormous powerhouse.

We won't be so lucky in avoiding storm wave number 2 this week. But there are things working against this next one that will prevent a big blow for us. At this point, it looks like a sort of meh, mid sized storm for New England on Thursday. It will rocket through New England and never have a chance to tap deep Atlantic moisture or organize itself into a strong storm.

The forecast is subject to change, but at this point, it looks like we're in for a few inches of snow, with maybe some sleet and freezing rain thrown in, especially across the southern half of Vermont.

The way this winter is going, we can hardly get through any storms without a mix, can we?

Very much like last week's storm, a pretty strong push of Arctic air will blast into New England behind it. If anything, the next blast of frigid air will be even colder than what came through last weekend.

However, just like the last time, the Arctic blast will be brief. It'll get wicked cold Thursday night and stay that way through midday Saturday.  Then temperatures will creep up again, and start flirting or surpassing the freezing mark by next Sunday afternoon.

The bottom line: Get ready for plenty more wintry weather, but it's definitely nothing to panic over.

Not Just Vermont: This Storm Was Huge, Odd In Many Ways

Did the best I could cleaning off more than a foot of snow from my truck,
and the quarter inch thick layer of solid ice beneath that. Not perfect for my trip
to work unfortunately. Hoping parking in the sun today will
melt more ice off the rig.

That big storm we had yesterday is out of our hair and we can go out in the very brisk air and start digging out.

If you're in northwestern Vermont or northern New York, or in parts of southern Quebec, you have a LOT of digging to do. 

The storm total at my house in St. Albans, Vermont starting early Thursday morning and ending last night was 16.3 inches.

Burlington's two-day storm total was 14.9 inches. The 11.5 inches that fell on Burlington just Friday alone was enough to set a record for the date for most snow on any February 7.

There was a report via Accuweather of 23.5 inches of new snow in Warren.

There were still about 5,000 homes and businesses without power, mostly in eastern Vermont early this morning. Ice had accumulated on trees and power lines during the storm Thursday into Friday morning, causing that trouble. More than 10,000 were without power Friday afternoon in Vermont.

Across the Northeast and Middle Atlantic States, a total of 250,000 were without power.

The storm was of course disruptive because of travel problems, along with hundreds upon hundreds of closed schools, businesses and events.

At least as impressive with this storm was the big trouble it caused from Texas to eastern Canada.  In many cases, that trouble was much worse than the snow and ice we Vermonters had to deal with.

By my count, there were at least 50 tornadoes from Mississippi to Maryland during the storm.  One extremely unusual detail were the at least five tornadoes and more than 200 reports of thunderstorm wind damage in the Middle Atlantic states, from Virginia to New Jersey.  That kind of tornado and severe storm outbreak that far north along the East Coast is extremely rare.

At least two deaths were blamed on tornadoes in the South.  Near Charlotte, North Carolina, one day care operator did the right tornado safety thing. There were five babies sleeping in the home day care when the operator got a tornado warning. She and her husband moved the babies to the center of the house. A moment later trees crashed down on the structure, crushing the room where the babies had been. Nobody was injured.

Flooding was severe in much of the Southeast with this storm's torrential rains.  Mobile homes were swept away in rural Kentucky. Parts of downtown Gatlinburg, Tennessee were flooded, and there were high water evacuations throughout the Southeast.

It's been an incredibly wet winter in the South, and more heavy rain storms are due there over the coming week. Flooding will continue to be a risk down there.

As the storm intensified over New England Friday, winds gusted to as high as 80  mph on Cape Cod, causing added damage.

Given all these problems and all the damage the storm caused, we can consider it among the worst to hit the United States in recent years.  It's possible it caused a total of a $1 billion in damage or more across the South and East. We'll see.

Going forward, there are no new big storms on the horizon for us here in Vermont, though some light snow will come down Sunday night. It could mix with rain in the valleys during the day Monday. After that, there will be other bouts of light snow through much of the upcoming week.

You Know The Drill: Icy, Icky Vermont Weekend

Another icy, yucky weekend in Vermont.  Not as much as in this photo
from January 12, but still the risk of icy roads, sidewalks, etc. 

True to form for this winter: It's another weekend, and we have another not huge but still icky storm to deal with.

Unlike last weekend, when we were treated to just snow, which was nice, this one is still looking to be a mostly schmutz event.

So we go through this drill again. We watch out for icy roads, and we have to pick our way gingerly over frozen, slippery sidewalks. Some spots are just wet and fine, then you find an icy patch and down you go.  

Temperatures for this entire storm statewide are going to be pretty close to the freezing mark. With some warm air coming in aloft, that means rain, freezing rain and a little sleet for just about everyone, starting this afternoon.

Areas outside the broader valleys in Vermont are most likely to get the ice.  Accordingly, a winter weather advisory is up for everybody in the Green Mountain State except those in the Champlain Valley, western Rutland County and the lower Connecticut River Valley.

Ice accumulations won't be extreme, so we're not looking at a lot of tree or power line damage, but the roads will be lousy this afternoon and tonight.

In those warmer valleys, it will be mostly rain with a huge caveat.  It's January. The ground is cold. Even if temperatures are a little above freezing while it's raining, that rain will freeze on untreated surfaces. You know, driveways, back roads, parking lots and sidewalks. You'll still want to be cautious as this mess goes through today and overnight.

Here's an added bonus for this lousy weather for those of you who live along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Strong downslope winds will develop this afternoon and tonight, and there might be a few gusts over 40 mph or even above that in these spots.

Despite all the rain and freezing rain in the forecast, it won't be enough to cause any flooding. Some rivers might to up a little. But the rain won't come down nearly as hard as it did during the January 11 storm, and it won't be warm enough to rapidly melt snow. So we're OK there.

Now the usual caveat: As I said, temperatures will be close to 32 degrees during this. If it's only a degree or two colder or warmer in any one location than anticipated, it will be either much icier or just wetter. As they say, results may vary.

Late tonight or early tomorrow morning, the precipitation will turn lighter and more showery.  Colder air aloft will move in during the day Sunday, but it won't translate down to the surface much. That means mid and high elevations can expect a couple inches of snow during the day Sunday, but valleys will get just wet snowflakes maybe mixed with some rain drops.

Everyone will get into the snow showers Sunday night, but accumulations won't add up to all that much.

Most of the upcoming week looks like it will be mostly dry with seasonably cold temperatures.  It's looking like a fairly good bet that next weekend will bring another storm, but nobody has any idea yet what kind of storm it will be, or how strong it will get.

Another Weekend, Another Tricky Vermont Storm Due

One depiction of the expected storm system this weekend
has it well inland over central New England. That would
give us a warmer storm, with an increased chance of
mixed precipitation rather than snow.

I'll take an initial crack at the next storm coming along to Vermont. True to form this winter, it's coming on a weekend. And, true to form, what will actually come from the sky is questionable.

As of this Thursday morning, it's too soon to really go into specifics.  This post will just be broadbrush.  I do know there's been a major trend northward in the computer models all week.

Back on Sunday and Monday, it appeared to me this next system would go by so far to the south that only southern Vermont had a shot of precipitation.

Now, the models are so far north that a mix or rain is in play. (The further north a storm goes, the more likely it will be warm enough for a changeover).

Like the last two systems, this won't be a blockbuster for us, no matter what type of precipitation falls. Early indications are most places would get a quarter to a half inch of rain or melted snow and ice. That's very similar to the last two storms, basically a mid-sized kind of thing.

Those two storms were all snow, so now we have a respectable, but not spectacular snow cover on the ground.  It's still early, so I don't know how much damage, if any, this next storm will do to that snow cover. In fact, some areas might get end up with a better snow pack than now, who knows?

The overall storm set up will be familiar to those watching how this winter has been going. One storm will head up toward the Great Lakes and a new one will get going somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic states or East Coast.

The latest predictions have this secondary storm taking an inland route through the Northeast. That would bring milder air north, which is what is making everybody question what type of precipitation will come down.

Jackson the Weather Dog sniffing out snow prospects for the next
storm in Vermont, due this weekend. 

On top of that, there's not a lot of cold air to our north in Quebec to feed into the system.

Any snow we get with this is most likely near the onset of precipitation Saturday, and near the end of this on Sunday, as somewhat colder air moves in behind the storm.

Obviously, there's still a lot of questions with this storm. If the trends keep bringing it north, this thing will be mostly rain.  If the forecast trends reverse themselves, a more southerly track would keep most of Vermont in the snow.

Because of the lack of cold air to feed into this system, any snow we do get will probably be wet and heavy.

After the storm, it will only be seasonably cold, or even a little milder than average for this time of year early next week.  If you want a brutal blast of frigid Arctic air, it's not coming within the next week or so that's for sure.

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: No Big Changes To Dangerous Forecast

Add caption

Don't let the record warm temperatures and bits of sunshine you experienced today in Vermont fool you, we are still in for a humdinger of a storm

Dangerous ice is still coming to the north of Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. And far northern New York  is really going to get nailed with awful ice.

Much of the rest of Vermont is still in for some flooding.

By late afternoon, pretty heavy rain had worked itself into northern Vermont and it was gradually working its way to the south and east. That is the beginning of the end of the warmth, and the start of the freezing rain episode in the north.

The freezing rain won't start right away, but it will come tonight.

Let's set us up with what happened this afternoon. There were quite a few record highs this afternoon in New England, including around Vermont. Here are some of the records:

Burlington, Vermont: 59, beating 56 set in 1980
Montpelier, Vermont: 59, beating 52 set in 2014
Plattsburgh, New York: 53, beating 51 in 2017
Boston: 70 degrees; second warmest January day on record
Hartford, Connecticut: 67 degrees, third warmest day on record.

WHAT'S NEXT

I took this photo of the huge "Triplet Trees" in my St. Albans
back yard amid record warmth this morning. I took this possibly
final photo of the trees in case they were end up damaged or
destroyed in tonight's ice storm. I have no way
of knowing how they wil come out Hoping for the best! 

I would say there were more record highs in the North Country today than I expected. That does NOT mean it will be a little warmer than expected overnight.  So the ice is still coming.

If anything, it could possibly mean precipitation will be a tad heavier than expected, as the contrasting air masses involved with this storm are even a little more extreme than some had forecasted.

The cold air is starting to bleed in. Massena, New York, which would be the first place south of the  border with Canada to see the cold front actually saw it come through a little after 2 p.m. this afternoon, and temperatures there have been slowly falling ever since.

The cold front just barely came through around my place in St. Albans, Vermont at 5 p.m. this evening, accompanied by heavy rain. I'm writing this right at 5 p.m., and the gusty south winds we've had all day in St. Albans just turned to the northwest a couple minutes ago. The downward slide in temperature has begun.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington expects the rain to change to freezing rain in New York's St. Lawrence Valley and the northern tip of that state around 8 or 9 p.m. tonight. The northern Champlain Valley should go to freezing rain at around 10 or 11 p.m. tonight, and points south and east of there should go to freezing rain around midnight to 1 a.m. Sunday.

Places south and east of a line from a little north of Rutland to a little north of St. Johnsbury should get little if any freezing rain, if current forecasts come out right.

The low-level cold air coming down from Ontario and Quebec is about as cold as forecasts had been all along, so the freezing rain and ice damage in the north is most certainly on for later tonight and Sunday.

Forecasts for ice accumulation haven't changed much since this morning. Far northern New York still looks to get a disastrous one inch or so of ice accumulation, which would cause massive tree and power line damage.

The northern Champlain Valley is still in line to get a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice, which will certainly also cause a lot of damage.  By the way, southern Quebec from Montreal south, and sections of Ontario are in line for a very destructive ice storm tonight, too.

There's a couple things going for us that will make a bad situation not as bad as it could be. One, instead of a long, drawn out few days of freezing rain, we'll get downpours overnight.  So much rain will come down that some of the water won't have time to freeze until it reaches the ground, or soaks in. That would cut down a little on how much ice accumulates.

There's also a chance the low level cold air could get a little thicker in altitude than forecast. If that happens, we'd get some sleet, which doesn't really accumulate on trees and power lines. That would be most likely in the far north. Pray for more sleet than expected, believe it or not. That would make things less bad than forecast. Don't count on it, though.

FLOODING

Flooding is obviously still a concern with this storm.  It's been raining pretty hard in northwestern Vermont since mid-afternoon and small streams have already become torrents, aided by snow melt in the record warm air earlier today.

Even in the ice zone, expect some flooding this evening. I notice the small streams around my area in Franklin County, Vermont are already flowing at pretty high and fast rates as of 5 p.m. Saturday.

Small stream and gully flooding will increase this evening and overnight across northern and central Vermont as the heavy rain continues.  That will translate to mainstem river flooding on Sunday. Most rivers in Vermont will at least crest at minor flood levels. Several rivers in northern and central Vermont are still expected to reach moderate flood state.  Flood watches remain in effect, obviously.

Temperatures will also stay quite warm in southern Vermont, maybe not dropping below the 55-60 range overnight.

I'll update tonight, maybe, if warranted, and try to do a comprehensive update Sunday morning. That is, if I have power. We'll see how that goes. If you don't hear from me tomorrow morning, I don't have power, and won't be able to post. I'll figure it out eventually if that happens.

Forecast Worsens In NW Vermont; Lots Of Damage In South, Midwest

Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. The Saturday
morning update to expected ice accumulations.Expect some
ice damage in areas shaded in red. Purple areas can expect
a lot of damage and power outages. 

Northern New York and northwestern Vermont are screwed.

These areas now appear all set to receive a damaging ice storm.   By Sunday morning, a lot of homes and businesses will be without power, and a lot of trees and branches will be on the ground in what will likely be the worst ice storm since 1998.  

As of this morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington had extended the ice storm warnings that were already in effect for northern New York eastward to encompass Grand Isle county and the western half of Franklin County in Vermont.

In northern New York, ice accumulations are expected to be over an inch in spots. That's more than enough to cause severe damage to trees and power lines. In the ice storm warning zone in Vermont, ice is forecast to be a half to three quarters of an inch thick by Sunday morning.  That's also more than enough to cause a lot of damage.

(As noted yesterday, the criteria for an ice storm warning is if a half inch or more of ice from freezing rain is likely to accumulate. If less than a half inch of freezing rain ice will accumulate, the National Weather Service will go with a winter weather advisory.)

The only real reason this won't be as bad as 1998 is because the freezing rain won't last as long. Instead of a three day affair, the freezing rain will all come within a 12 hour period, give or take, tonight and tomorrow morning.

VERY WET AIR

What this storm has in common with 1998 is the extreme availability of moisture for this time of year.

One common way meteorologist use to determine how much moisture is available for a storm is something called Precipitable Water, or PW.  The measurement doesn't necessarily tell you how much precipitation is going to fall, but it goes like this: If there is one inch of PW, then if all the moisture above that location condenses out, they'd get one inch of rain. You never get all of the moisture condensing out of the atmosphere, but PW is still a good guide for expected rainfall.

Precipitable Water in the atmosphere over northern New York and much of northern Vermont will be at or near record highs for January tonight.  That means rain or freezing rain will come down hard, extremely hard for January.

Total rain or melted ice in northern New York with this storm is expected to be around two to three inches. In northern Vermont, slightly less will fall, with totals expected by NWS South Burlington to be in the one to two inch range.

For comparison, total precipitation for the entire month of January is usually between two and 2.5 inches of rain.

FORECAST STILL TRICKY

As we've been describing, this storm is bringing wet and record warm air up the East Coast.  Places from central New England on down through the Middle Atlantic States and maybe points south will have a lot of record highs today and Sunday.  It could get as high as 80 degrees in West Virginia and the upper 60s in southeastern New England.

Meanwhile, just as the heaviest rain is expected to move into northern New York and Vermont that shallow cold front will come down from Quebec.  Warm air will still roar northward above this cold front, so the precipitation will come down as rain and freeze on contact down on the North Country.

Cold air is more dense than warm air and tends to sink toward valley floors, so this cold air will creep southward more easily where it isn't blocked by mountains. That means it will get cold tonight in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys pretty easily

In Vermont, the cold air has got an open shot to get down as far as Rutland, but it remains to be seen how far the chilly air does get.  There will be a sharp temperature contrast in Vermont, with 20 degree temperature differences late tonight and early Sunday with miles of each other.

Sunday morning, it will probably be in the 20s in far northwestern Vermont and near 60 in the southeast corner.

The varying temperatures so close to each other means its hard to determine who will get ice and how much when you get south and east of Franklin County, Vermont.

Burlington is a wild card. It's the most populated area of the state. It's hard to say if there will be enough ice there to cause a fair amount of damage or will the ice be not that bad? It's almost imposssible to tell.

A weather front will sweep west to east across the region Sunday morning and afternoon, mercifully ending the freezing rain as a brief period of snow, with little accumulation.  Gusty winds with and behind the front will probably cause more damage and power outages and ice-laden trees in the north sway and possibly collapse in the breeze

FLOODING WORRIES

Expected precipitation (rain and melted ice) for the upcoming storm
Areas in yellow and orange can expect to at least 1.5 inches of
precipitation, which is an awfully lot for January. 

Notice I mentioned the precipitable water, above. Areas in northern and central New York and northern and central Vermont that don't get a lot of ice will get a lot of rain.

 Flood watches are still up for all of Vermont except near the Canadian border, and the far southern two counties, where it won't rain nearly as hard as further north.

Very mild air today across all of Vermont and tonight in all but northern Vermont will quickly melt what snow we have out there. All this rain will add the runoff with the melting snow will set probably set up some floooding.  

The first problem will be small streams and creeks tonight, which could wash out parts of roads, driveways and culverts.

The water will then flow in to more major rivers. As it stands now,  forecasts call for moderate flooding on parts of the Winooski and Mad Rivers and Otter Creek, with minor flooding elsewhere.

You've heard the terms minor and moderate flooding bandied about, and here's what they mean:

Minor flooding means few, if any buildings will get flooded, and just some roads, fields, parklands and flood plains will go under water.

Moderate flooding means some buildings might start to flood, roads will be closed by flooding and a few spots might have to be evacuated.

SAFETY:

I'll re-up some tips I put out yesterday here in this space:

1. Today is the day to buy batteries, bottled water and other supplies you'll need to get through power outages that could easily last hours, and perhaps a few days in some spots, especially in northern New York. Remember, especially if you have well water, the pump for the water won't work without electricity.

2. Charge your devices today and this evening, too, so they'll have a full charge in case you need them tomorrow. Remember, Vermont's spotty cell service might be even spottier in areas that get freezing rain, as power outages can affect things, too.

3.  Grab some cash from your bank or ATM, and fill up the car's gas tank. If there's power failures, gas pumps won't work, and stores won't be able to process debit or credit card purchases.

4. If you have a generator, please, please make sure the exhaust is at least 15 feet from the house if posssible and pointed away from the house. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

5.  This should go without saying, but stay away from fallen wires, even if they don't seem like they have electricity flowing through them. Stay out from under ice-laden trees, too. You never know if or when they'll collapse.

6. Check on the elderly and ill, and make sure they're warm enough. If not, and if possible, bring them to someplace that IS warm.

7.  This should be another "Duh!" tip, but don't drive through flooded roads.  It doesn't take much water to sweep a car away.  An additional hazard is the water this time of year is cold, making your chances of dying of drowning and/or hyperthermia greater and quicker.

8.  When this is over and you need to drive somewhere get all the ice off all of your car or truck. Ice flying off your vehicle on the highway can hit the car behind you, breaking their windshield or causing them to lose control and create a crash.  Store your vehicle in a garage if you can. If not, and to make things easier, cover as much of your vehicle with a tarp as you can and secure the tarp down so it doesn't blow away.

After the freezing rain ends, carefully remove the tarp and your vehicle should largely be ice-free.

DANGEROUS NATIONAL WEATHER

As expected, there's widespread damage from severe thunderstorms and some tornadoes in the South, a lot of flooding in other spots, and a bunch of freezing rain and ice damage in the Midwest.

So far, there have been reports of three deaths in Lousiana due to either tornadoes or severe storms.

In Logan, Arkansas, a tornado destroyed a house but the family who lived there was not hurt because they were in a storm shelter, the National Weather Service reported. Damage from the severe thunderstorms was reported from Texas to Tennessee.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes were ongoing early this morning from Kentucky to the Gulf Coast.

Alabama and parts of Mississippi and Georgia are under the gun today for severe storms and possible tornadoes.

A huge area encompassing much of Missouri and Illinois and substantial chunks of adjacent Arkansas and Oklahoma were under flood warnings this morning.

The ice storm that will affect northern Vermont tonight and tomorrow has already brought widespread  icing from Oklahoma to the Great Lakes.

Quick Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, issued this afternoon. An inch of very damaging
ice is likely in northern New York. In northern Vermont, ice could
get to near a half inch, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley.
This would definitely lead to some damage just not as bad as NY.

As always with big storms, there are a few adjustments and updates to the forecast for our upcoming nasty storm.

The ice looks like it'll be at its worst in far northern New York, where an ice storm warning is now in effect from Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

There, the rain is likely to come down harder than in Vermont, and the subfreezing temperatures might also last a bit longer in that area. Ice accumulation in the ice storm warning area should come out to be about an inch thick.

That's enough to cause really bad damage to trees and power lines.  Long lasting power outages are likely in this area. Southern Quebec and parts of Ontario are in for the same thing, so it will be totally awful there, too.

In northern Vermont, there's a slightly less dire but still serious ice forecast. Closest to the Canadian border, in northern Grand Isle and Franklin counties, ice is now expected to thicken up to between a quarter to a half inch of ice.

That much  ice would still bring down a lot of trees and power lines and cause pretty widespread outages. But on the bright side, it won't be as bad as 1998, and, if the forecast comes true, the tree damage won't be super devastating, just kinda bad.  It probably won't look like the wholesale disaster zone the way the trees did in 1998.  Be prepared for a lot of yard cleanup with this is over, though.

Click on this map and the ice storm map above to make them bigger
and easier to read. More than 2.5 inches of rain and freezing rain
is likely in northwestern New York, which is an incredible amount
for January. Northern Vermont is getting more than
 an inch of precip, which is still a lot for this time of year. 

In Chittenden, Orleans and Essex counties, there's going to be ice accumulation later Saturday night and Sunday morning, but damage should be relatively light, again, if the forecast comes true.

If it turns a little colder than expected or rain is a little heavier than expected, the ice storm effects could be worse than I'm envisioning here.

Needless to say, road conditions wherever there is freezing rain will be atrocious.

Pretty much all of the forecasted icy areas in Vermont are under a winter weather advisory. But I'm going to advise a little extra on this advisory.

Most winter weather advisories in Vermont tend to be taken by the public as no big deal. Just kind of nuisance winter weather. This storm will go beyond nuisance and be a real problem.

The only main reason I can see that there's not a more dire ice storm warning in Vermont is because the criteria for an ice storm warning is that most of the area affected will have at least a half an inch of ice or more.  It doesn't look like northern Vermont will quite reach that criteria, although a few spots, especially the far northern Champlain Valley will probably see around a half of ice or a little more.

Flooding is still a good bet, too.  Forecasts call for minor to as much as moderate flooding along parts of the Winooski and Mad rivers and the Otter Creek.  This won't be as bad as the Halloween storm of 2019, but of course you would be stupid to drive into any flooded road.

Flood watches are up for the northern two thirds of Vermont, except right along the Canadian border where the already mentioned ice will build up.

As you well know, all this is subject to change as more data comes in. I'll update again Saturday morning, and again as needed as the storm progresses.

REST OF THE NATION:

As expected, severe thunderstorms and probably some tornadoes have been bubbling up, mostly in Oklahoma and Texas.  These will continue to expand and intensify overnight.  Tornadoes and very severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night. You don't see them coming and people are sleeping and don't get warnings.

An expansive area of freezing rain was beginning to blossom from western Oklahoma all the way up toward the Great Lakes.  If anything, some of that ice storm could be worse than what we're getting

Also, flood watches remain up for a huge area of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and of course, part of our region.

Weekend Storm Still Looking Dangerous For Vermont, Many Other Parts Of Nation

Will northern Vermont get a nasty, but manageable amount of ice like
this over the upcoming weekend or will it be worse?
Nobody is certain yet, stay tuned! 

It looks like I'll want to do daily updates on the approaching potentially dangerous storm this weekend here in Vermont. At least until it hits.

The expected vast, serious storm continues to put Vermont at risk for flooding and potentially damaging ice.

The storm is a forecasting nightmare and will continue to be even when it is in progress Saturday and Sunday, so expect surprises.  Not all of the surprises will be pleasant, for sure.  

At this point, if forecasts go amazingly close to accurate, some flooding is a good possibility across a good chunk of Vermont, given the rather heavy rain and snow melt that will come with the storm.

The highest potential for damaging freezing rain and ice accumulations are in the northern and maybe central Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom. Sections of northern New York and southern Quebec are also under the gun with this scenario.

The first piece of this storm will rocket from around Kansas to the Great Lakes today and tonight, driving a warm front through Vermont.

After today's chilly weather, you'll notice temperatures going up overnight tonight. In the Champlain Valley, you'll really notice the wind pick up, with gusts to at least 45 mph in spots later tonight and tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile the main storm will start to gather around Texas. That's why there's a severe weather outbreak scheduled for Friday and Saturday in the Deep South.

The storm is transporting huge amounts of moisture and heat northward in the eastern third of the nation, which will produce that heavy rain in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, and the record warmth along the East Coast.

A band of freezing rain and sleet will travel along the northern and western periphery of the storm.  That's where Vermont's troubles come into play.

Cold high pressure is stll expected to establish itself in Ontario and Quebec. That would push a cold front down into northern New England, including northern Vermont.

What comes from the sky, then, during the storm will depend upon where this weather front gets stuck, or wavers back and forth. If forecasters are off on its position by as little as 10 or 20 miles, then the weather forecast for the storm will be wrong.

The reality check is, forecasts are almost alway off by a dozen or two doze  miles with the location and speed of a cold or warm front no matter what the situation.  Usually this margin of error has little effect on weather forecasts and the predictions end up being accurate.

I doubt it this time. That's because, first of all, the temperature contrast across the front will be tremendous.  I can see a scenario in which its 30 degrees in St. Albans and 60 degrees in Rutland during parts of the storm.

On top of that, this is shallow, low level cold air coming in from the north. Temperatures aloft will remain very balmy.  It's possible in northern Vermont we could get temperatures in the upper 40s on the summits of the Green Mountains while freezing rain coats trees and power lines in the valleys.

If current forecasts are to be believed, the cold air would begin bleeding into the Champlain Valley, some spots in the Northeast Kingdom and northern New York Saturday afternoon or evening.

We don't know how far south the front will get, and whether it will lift back across the International Border during the height of the storm.

If the front stays draped across southern or central Vermont, the northern Champlain Valley and other northern locations could easily see the worst ice storm since the epic one in 1998.  Although, looking at the bright side, there seems to be no way this one would be as bad as 1998.

I have seen in some of these situations that the cold air from Quebec can bleed south along valley floors as far south as Rutland, so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

On the other hand, if southerly winds win out, the temperature would stay or go back above freezing Saturday night all the way to the Canadian border. That would be nice in that we'll escape the worst of the damaging ice.

By the same token, that warm air north would put all of Vermont in play for the risk of flooding. Heavy rain mixed with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 melts snow pretty quickly too.

The heaviest rain or ice or even possibly sleet or snow in the far north would come down Saturday night and early Sunday morning. It would taper off pretty quickly on Sunday afternoon as the storm heads away from us.

Stay tuned on this one.  It's certainly shaping up to be the first really nasty storm of 2020.

Still Watching Dangerous Weekend Storm In Eastern U.S.

Forecast national map for Saturday. Note the very
strong high pressure off the East Coast pumping in
lots of very warm, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico. Storm shown
centered over Arksans will produce severe storms
and tornadoes south and east of it and ice to its northwest.
The storm moves into our area Saturday and especially
Sunday, with a risk of heavy ice or rain, and
possibly snow. 

Ingredients continue to come together for a dangerous storm in much of the eastern United States Friday through Sunday.

While forecasts will undoubtedly change somewhat as more updated data comes in, here's a quick broad brush of what the nation should expect, followed by effects here in Vermont.

Friday:  A line of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes develops in eastern Oklahoma and Texas and moves into Arkansas and Louisiana. Strong, damaging thunderstorms and a few tornadoes along this line.

Ahead of the squall line, a few supercells with possible tornadoes, might well develop, with the risk of a very big, strong tornado or two.

Heavy rain will develop in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys later in the day. There will be a freezing rain risk from about Nebraska to southern Wisconsin.

Saturday: The threat of severe storms and tornadoes will shift to the central Gulf Coast and lower Tennessee valley. Overall this two-day severe outbreak might resemble one of the stronger outbreaks more common in the spring and early summer.

Meanwhile, heavy rain and the threat of flooding will develop from the Gulf Coast through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and extend as far north as Michigan. There's a risk of a good amount of freezing rain in a broad band from Kansas, through Missouri, into northern Ilinois, Michigan and into Ontario.

Near record warmth will affect the East Coast.

Sunday: The heavy rain shifts to eastward a bit and then diminishes, except north. . Heavy precipitation moves into northern New York and northern New England, and southern Ontario and Quebec. These areas will turn colder and there is a risk of heavy icing in some of these areas. Another day of record warmth is likely along the immediate East Coast.

Lets look at the next few days in Vermont:

Today: Snow showers with a cold front. Sharply falling temperatures this afternoon with the snow showers could cause a flash freeze on roads.

Thursday: Quiet and cold.  Lows a few degrees either side of zero, highs in the teens. At night, south winds start blowing, becoming strong in the Champlain Valley.

Friday: Windy and warm, with patchy light rain. A little ice possible east of the Greens in the morning.

Saturday: Now we're getting into the meat of the storm.  It'll be warm, unless the cold front comes in sooner than forecast. A few record highs possible. Rain is likely, especially north.  Turning sharply colder, especially north and west Saturday night with possible mixed precipitation.

Sunday: A wild card, with a complex thermal profile and questions about the position of cold air. There's a risk of significant, damaging icing, especially north. If it's a little warmer than expected, rain could be heavy enough to produce flooding. If it's a little colder than now expected, more snow would work into northern areas.

Overall, it looks like one to two inches of rain and/or melted snow and ice will come down northern Vermont Sunday. That's a lot for January. Somewhat lesser amounts of precipitation will probably hit southern Vermont.

The bottom line is, we don't know exactly what will be falling from the sky Sunday, but I'd consider postponing travel. And pay attention to those iee forecasts. If we got a lot of ice, we could lose quite a few trees and power lines.  If the forecasts for ice become more certain, stock up on supplies during the warmer weather Saturday morning and afternoon.