The Monthly Global Assessment: Surprise! Hot Again

As we do every month, we check in with NOAA's Centers For Environmental Information to get the regular update as they check the world's temperature.

As always, the Globe is running a fever.

June, 2020 was the worlds third hottest on record.

I suppose if you're looking for a bright side, at least June wasn't #1 or #2  on the heat scale like most months in the past year.

Overall, the places with the warmest temperatures, relative to average were most of the United States, southern Brazil, northern and eastern Europe, northern Russia, southern China and the North Pacific Ocean.

Even in a warming world, there are always places that trend cooler in a particular month. This time, those places were western and southeastern Russia, India, Greenland and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.

It was good that Greenland was cool at the time of year when the sun angle is highest in the northern hemisphere. It probably cut down on the amount of melting Greenland has been seeing in recent years.

Of course, other parts of the Arctic were much warmer than average.

As of July 15, Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record for this time of year, beating the record low last set in 2011, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The sea ice is particularly pathetic north of Siberia, which has had months of far above normal temperatures this year.

IN VERMONT

Locally, as we know, it's been a hot summer so far in Vermont. We have another squirt of very hot weather coming up, but luckily, this one won't last super long.

You'll notice the humidity building today as showers taper off. (The showers, as I expected, were more lame than many forecasts).  Northwest Vermont in particular seems to have an anti-rain force field this summer.

Saturday will be humid and relatively  hot, with 90 readings likely in the warmer valleys.

I'm sure there will be some heat advisories Sunday as the humidity builds more and temperatures go well into the 90s.  Burlington at this point is expected to get up to 97 degrees Sunday, which would make it the hottest day of the year if it comes to pass.

Luckily,  cold front will come to the rescue late Sunday night and Monday. After the front passes, it won't exactly be cold, but temperatures next week look as if they'll be near, or just a little warmer than average.

If the cold front is later than expected, we might squeeze one more 90 degree afternoon Monday, but after that, I'm guessing no more 90-degree weather for the rest of next week.

Enjoy Vermont's Last Nice Summer Day For Quite Awhile

Today is everything you want in Vermont summer day.

Any place depicted in orange is expected to have above
normal temperaturs at mid-month, according to this 8-14
day forecast. The darker the orange, the greater the chances
of warmer than normal temperatures. Only a tiny part of
the Pacific Northwest (in blue) will be coolish

There's plenty of sunshine.  It's going to be warm, with most of us getting to 80 degrees or a little above.  It won't be humid.

It's hot enough for a day at the beach and comfortable enough for a hike in the Green Mountains. You won't get rained on. Apply some sun screen and maybe some bug spray and away you go.

This will be your last chance to enjoy the Vermont outdoors for awhile.  We have another long period of hot, humid, oppressive weather that will last right into the weekend at least.

I know that a few of you like hot, humid weather, so sorry for insulting you by complaining about it.  But most of us, frankly, are not enthused about this.

It'll start tomorrow. Last night was a refreshing night for sleeping, and tonight won't be bad either.  The humidity blasts in tomorrow, and by late afternoon you'll feel it.

That warm front bringing us this nasty spell could cause a few scattered showers and tbunderstorms, but most of us won't get wet.  Another little disturbance could trigger some showers and storms here and there on Wednesday, but, again, not all of us will get wet.

The partial cloudiness will keep daytime temperatures "cooler" Tuesday and Wednesday with highs "only" in the mid and upper 80s most places around here.

The heat seems, at least at this point, as if it will peak Thursday and Friday with higha in aome of the valleys reaching the mid-90s. Ugh!  The humidity will be higher than during that big heat wave we had in late June, so it will feel even worse than it did back a couple weeks ago.

Overnight lows will stay in the 70s in many areas, so getting a good night's sleep will be difficult without air conditioning.

There are signs that it could turn a little wetter again by next weekend.  That would drop temperatures a little bit, but the humidity would stay awful.  At least we'll have a shot of getting some badly needed rain five or six days from now.  Of course, the way this summer is going, the prospects of rain next weekend could evaporate before we get there.

The epicenter of the heat will shift gradually from the Northeast and Great Lakes to areas of the Plains and Midwest as the week goes on. That will continue for the following week as well.

Long range forecasts are tricky, as I always point out.  As it stands now, though, a torrid, dangerous heat wave will settle into the central United States.  We in Vermont will likely be out of the main heat zone by about a week from now. However, temperatures will remain warmer than averaage, with very likely some genuinely hot days thrown in.

It's too dry here, but at least the repositioning of the heat toward the west will slightly increase rain chances here in the Northeast starting next weekend, as noted.

This is very bad news for the middle and western parts of the nation, however, Much of the Rockies and Plains are in an increasingly bad drought.  The heat dome that will set up over the Plains will shut off pretty much all precipitation chances out there.

Plus the intense, sunny heat will make the drought intensify much faster.  Wildfires in the Rockies and elsewhere will intensify, too.

The super hot weather will also drive people indoors into air conditioned spaces.  Research into the coronavirus pandemic suggests that air conditioned air, if there's inadequate outside air intake, can make the spread of the virus worse in offices, factories, apartment buildings, restaurants and such.

This summer's weather pattern is consistent with what climate experts have been watching.  Heat waves and hot spells in general across most of the globe have been getting longer and more intense. 

As an aside, I was talking with my mother, age 91, and a lifelong Vermonter.  She said she doesn't remember such consistent and long and frequent hot spells when she was younger. Sure, there were heat waves, but they didn't practically last all summer.

That's an anecdotal story, of course, but telling.

During the upcoming week, try to get into cool places as much as possible. Don't overexert yourself, even if you are healthy.  Drink plenty of liquids and check in frequently with elderly relatives and freinds, because they are especially prone to illness and death during heat waves.

That's especially true with the hot spell coming in over the next few days, because the expected muggy nights won't give ua a reprieve from the effects of the heat.

Every Summer Is Hot Now in Vermont, Pretty Much

A refreshing, cool summer day on Lake Champlain in
Shelburne a few years ago. Such nice weather
is geting rare in our increasingly hot
Vermont summers

It looks like we're experiencing another hot summer here in Vermont.

After a big heat wave in late June, followed by not as hot, but still muggy weather in the past week, foreasts call for another long hot spell in the upcoming week. We're in for more 90 degree weather, folks.

I guess we should be used to it now.   I checked records from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington this morning. Turns out, the last cooler than average summer in Burlington was way back in 2009 - eleven years ago. That summer wasn't all that cool, either: It was just 0.9 degrees south of the average

In those eleven years since 2009, some summers were only a little warmer than average while others were much  hotter. Four of the top ten hottest summers in Burlington have happened since 2005.

Two years ago, 2018, we had our second hottest summer with a mean temperature of 72.1 degrees. That's just 0.1 degrees off the all time record set in 1949.

We're talking climatological summer, by the way. That's the period from June 1 through August 31.

The last time we had a cooler than average summer month was in June, 2015, which was close to one degree cooler than average. The rest of that summer was definitely on the warm side, so that kept the hot summer streak going.

There is a caveat here.  I didn't get a chance to take a look at some other towns and cities in Vermont. Burlington seems to run  hotter than other towns.  Summers that were only slightly warm in Burlington, like 2017, might actually have been marginally cooler than average in places like Montpelier and St. Johnsbury.  I'll have to check.

The number of 90-degree days in Burlington seems to be on the upswing, too. So far this year, we've had ten such days, double the average for an entire year.

There were eight such days in 2019; sixteen of them in 2018;  eight in 2017 and twelve of them in 2016, for instance.

For those of you wondering if this increased Vermont heat is caused by climate change, I would say global warming has a hand in it.  It's possible natural cycles were involved too, but in all likelihood climate change gave this increased tendency toward heat an extra boost.

The bottom line here is that Vermont's reputation as a nice cool summertime retreat has taken a bit of a hit.  It's still a lot more refreshing here, than say, Miami. However, the Green Mountain State is not quite as naturally air conditioned as it once was.

June Is The New July In Vermont

A hot, steamy day in Burlington, Vermont in 2018.  In June
we've re-written the heat records of June in recent years. 

I noticed quite a June trend in recent years in the weather record books for Burlington, Vermont.

The last several years have totally transformed the listed record highs in the second half of June.

The National Weather Service has been keeping track of the weather in Burlington since the 1880a.  records.

Over the more than 100 years from around 1885 to 1994, the warmest it ever got in Burlington during June was 96 degrees.

Since 1994 just the last quarter century or so, it has gotten to 96 degrees in June at least another 11 times including twice last week.

And let's not even talk about the record for longest June heat wave - six days in a row - set just this past week.

We've almost totally re-written the record book for June highs since 1991. In the last 14 days of June, eight of the daily record highs have been set just since 2007.  All but one of the record highs in that period came after 1990.

We tied the record for the second hottest reading in Burlington with a high of 100 degrees on June 19,1995.  It was only the third day on record it had been 100 degrees in the Queen City

We still get record daily lows in Burlington, of course.  I did find a single recent daily record low in June -  a reading of 36 degrees on June 2, 2003. But other than that, I can't find a daily record low in June newer than one set on June 24, 1988 when it was 40 degrees.

Consistent with climate change, daily record highs have been exceeding record lows, though of course you can still get cold snaps in a warmer world.

By my quick count - and somebody can check this if they'd like - I see 29 daily record highs tied or broken in Burlington since July 1 2017 and just five record lows tied or broken.

We're not expecting any record highs or lows in the next few days, of course. But fasten your seat belts, we're sure to have more record warm episodes to come.

Will This Be The Hot Summer Most Of Us Dreaded?

Jackson the Weather Dog on Sunday gave up recording
consecutive days of 90 degree heat in St. Albans, Vermont
and found a cool spot on the concrete floor of his
basement to escape the outdoor scorcher. 

I've fled the heat of the main floor of my house and am hiding in the basement as I write today's post. With me are Jackson the Weather Dog and Tonks, our doggie weather assistant.

When the weather makes people hide in basements, it's usually because a tornado is coming.

There is most certainly no tornadoes near me today in Vermont, but the heat sure is baking outside. Only one room of the house is air conditioned, but the basement stays nice and cool. So that's where I'm hiding.

All levity aside, this is getting nasty.

As I write this shortly after 1 p.m., nearby Burlington has reached 90 degrees for the fourth day in a row. It will be the seventh day in this young summer season with at least a 90 degree reading.  Normal for an entire year is five such days.

Forecasts indicate we could be in for two more 90+ days tomorrow and Tuesday before somewhat cooler air arrives later in the week.  

That would give us six consecutive 90 degree days, a record long streak of such weather for June, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  It would also tie for the second longest streak of consecutive 90 degree days in Burlington for any month.

Long range forecasts, admittedly not always accurate, suggest the much warmer than average weather could continue through the month of July.

This is all making me slightly worried that we here in Vermont will have our turn to get stuck under a relentless, dangerous heat wave that could last all summer. This is completely speculation on my partm and not based on any real science.

However, there does seem to be an increasing trend in parts of the Northern Hemisphere to have disastrous summer long unprecedented hot spells

Could this be our turn?  Only time will tell.

These heat waves over the past decade have been much more brutal, and much longer lasting than past heat waves. This is almost certainly made worse by climate change, which can contribute to hotter temperatures, and at least according to some scientists, favor "stuck" weather patterns that dont change for weeks or even months.

Some examples:

In 2003, a heat wave settled over western Europe for most of the summer. Temperatures stayed near or above record levels for weeks in August.  The heat killed 30,000 people, 14,000 of those in France.

A 2010 heat wave sent temperatures soaring to 100 degrees in Moscow, with the heat lasting weeks, killing an estimated 11,000 people.

As with any extended period of heat, these massive hot spells created massive droughts.

This year, an intense spell of heat is hitting Siberia. Actually, parts of that region near the Arctic Circle have been off the charts above normal with temperatures all year so far.

On Saturday the city of Verkhoyansk, in northeastern Siberia reached 100 degrees. If that reading verifies, it would be the first time on record a temperature has reached 100 degrees north of the Arctic Circle.

The normal high temperature in Verkhoyansk this time of year is in the upper 60s, and it can get to 90 degrees there occasionally.

I got a bit of a scare of sorts in 2018 when a strong heat wave enveloped Vermont, and especially Quebec in the first part of July.  The heat was persisted for nearly a week with an all time high daily minimum temperature of 80 set on July 2 that year.

Luckily, the heat eased after that first week of July, 2018, though temperatures remained above normal through the rest of the summer.

Long heat waves have happened before in Vermont, but not that  often. The worst was probably August, 1994, when 13 of the first 17 days of the month reached 90 degrees in Burlington. One of those days set the all time record high in Burlington, which still stands -- 101 degrees.

So, back to my question: Are we at the start of a summer long siege of heat and drought? The short answer is nobody knows. We'll just have to wait it out.

The maximum number of 90 degree days in any year in Burlington is 26, set in 1949, so a fairly long time ago.

The trend in recent years is a little dismaying, though, if you don't like hot weather. The last time we had a summer with a below average number of 90 degree days was in 2014, when there were only three such days.

Since then, it has ranged from seven so far this year, eight in 2017 and a yikes-factor 17 afternoons in the 90s in 2018. Have the "normal" summers of five 90s passed us by?

Probably not, but they will also likely become increasingly rare in the future, too.

Hot Times Go On: Worldwide, May Was Hottest, Or At Least Tied For It

Extreme warmth, relative to average, in Siberia was a big contributor to
make May, 2020 the warmest on record for the globe. Eastern North
America was one of the few coolish spots. 

Last week, the numbers came out on how the world fared climate wise in May.

To almost nobody's surprise, we're #1 again.

May was the hottest on record for the world as a whole, according to several monitoring agencies, including NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information.

It's been a hot decade, too.  Each of the seven warmest Mays have occured in the past seven year, according to NCEI.

Siberia basically pushed the world over the top in terms of May heat.  Relative to average, that part of the world was off the charts warm.

The only relatively cool spots were eastern Canada, eastern United States, Australia and parts of eastern Europe.

If anything, the trend in global warming has accelerated in the past several year. Each of the past 12 months have either been the hottest or second hottest on record on a global basis.

According to Jeff Masters, writing for Yale Climate Connection:

"The year-to-date period January-May ranks as the second warmest such period on record, just 0.06 (degrees Celcius) behind the record set in 2016.  According to NCEI's annual temperature outlook, the year 2020 has more than a 99.9 percent chance to rank among the five warmest years on record, and a 49 percent chance of being the warmest year on record. If so, calendar 2020 would mean each of the past seven years would be among the seven warmest on record."

As noted last month, global economic lockdowns to slow the spread of the coronavirus will probably reduce carbon emissions by 5 to 8 percent from the record highs of 2019. Even with that reduction, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to grow.

Plus, the coronavirus crisis might only last another year or two.  That's way too long for us humans, who hate to see these tragc deaths and illnesses from the virus. In the grand scheme of things, though, the coronovirus problems won't last long enough to cause any dent at all in atmospheric carbon concentrations.

According to USA Today, Kennth Gillingham, a climate economist at Yale University was pretty clear on this, saying, "The only reason emissions dropped is that we're all stuck at home....As soon as the lockdowns lift, they are likely to rise again."

For those of you keeping track, May, 2020 was the 425th consecutive month with above normal global temperatuires.

Hot Arctic, Bad Hurricanes, Carbon And Coronavirus: All Bad Climate Change News

A few reports, studies and breaking news this week have all been bad news in the climate change department. Let's get into them:   

Recent temperature depiction of the Arctic.  The more orange, the
further temperatures are above normal.  Notice Siberia and the
area around the North Pole have the deepest orange.

ARCTIC HEAT

The (sort of) breaking news is a weird Arctic heat wave that has spread from Siberia and is reaching the North Pole and parts of Greenland. 

As noted in Gizmodo, temperatures at the North Pole will probably get a bit above freezing in the next few days.  For most of us, temperatures in the low to mid 30s most certainly does not constitute a heat wave. 

But such temperatures are odd for the North Pole, especially this early in the season.  Plus, it gets the Arctic off to an early start to the melt season. 

Same is true in Greenland.  The warmth has gotten the melt season going two weeks earlier than normal.  True, not a huge amount of ice has melted in this heat wave, compared to some mid-summer epic melts in recent years, especially last summer, which saw record melts in Greenland. 

As Gizmodo points out, though, this year's early melt exposes older dirtier snow sooner in the year than nornal. This old snow and ice can then absorb more warm sunshine during the rest of the summer than newer, whiter, fresher snow and ice would. This would bring up the risk of major melt events later in the summer. 

We should care more about Greenland's melt than Arctic Ocean melt.  If ice floating on the sea melts, it won't raise global sea levels. But ice melting off the above sea level glaciers in Greeland flow into oceans, raising their levels globally. 

Meanwhile, Siberia is once again on fire after its warmest winter and spring on record. Fires have already crept north of the Arctic Circle. Gizmodo reports there are even some "zombie fires" which smoldered in buried peat all winter and then sparked back up again amid the current record warmth in high latitude Siberia.  

TURBOCHARGED HURRICANES

Climate change appears to be making hurricanes and typhoons and such more intense, according to new research from NOAA and the University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. 

As The Weather Channel reports:

"The researchers discovered that the probability of a tropical cycle having Category 3 or higher wind speeds (at least 111 mph) increased by aboug 15 percent between the first and last halves of the analyzed satellite data. This corresponds to about an 8 percent increase per decade over the period of the study. The proportion of all tropical cyclones exceeding major hurricane intensity showed a similar increase of about 6 percent per decade."

The largest increase in bad hurricanes was in the Atlantic Ocean, but other influences might have helped increase the odds of such storms, too. 

CARBON/CORONAVIRUS

Daily global emissions of carbon dioxide fell by 17 percent from the same period in 2018 as nations locked down their economies to battle the coronavirus pandemic. Most of that decrease was due to less travel and less industrial output. 

I suppose that's good news for people who are not fans of climate change, but obviously we would have all been better off without the pandemic.

Also, this cut in carbon emissions won't really dent the pace of climate change. Economies are already opening back up, and emissions will rise correspondingly.  Even a sustained 17 percent reduction in carbon emissions lasting years wouldn't really solve the problem. 

Said Richard Betts, head of Climate Impacts Research at the Met Office Hadley Centre in England said, "It's like we're filling a bath and have turned down the tap slightly, but not turned it off - the water is still rising, just not as fast. To stop the bath overflowing, we need to turn the tap off."

So yes, the world is rightly consumed with battling the pandemic, but we still need to deal pretty intensely with climate change at the same time. 

Chilly Spring Around Here Is A Global Exception

Most of the world, with the exception of much of Canada and half
the United States was warm in April. It will be regarded as the
second warmest April on record for the world as a whole. 

It was another frosty morning in Vermont, the last of a string of them.

The warming trend has arrived in the Green Mountain State. But of course, this being 2020, it turns out the warming might be tamped down a bit by a stalled area of low pressure along the East Coast next week.

We'll see about that, but at least it won't be cold anymore. No more frosts, no more snow

While we here in the Northeast shivered through large chunks of April and the first half of May, the rest of the world broiled.

Global numbers for April are in and it was more or less tied for the hottest April on record, at least on a global basis.

NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information place April, 2020 as the second hottest on record, just an itty bitty skosh cooler than the record holder, April, 2016. Other measurements call last month THE hottest. All measurements basically come up with the same numbers for the month.

Central and eastern Canada, and the northeastern third of the United States were practically the only cool spots in the world during April.

As Bob Henson in Weather Underground's Category 6 blog points out, there were areas of incredible heat this past April.

Kyrgyzstan, China and Mongolia all set all time records for April heat.  Unseasonable wildfires ripped through eastern Siberia. Cuba reported all time record high temperatures, not just for April, but for the entire year. Southern Florida wilted in June-like heat.

The global temperature trends make it all but certain this year will globally be one of the top five warmest on record.

By the way, there is no discernable impact on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now that much of the world's economy is shut down by Covid-19.  We are still spewing enough carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to increase concentrations of this main greenhouse gas.  It's just that the rate at which it's increasing in the atmosphere has probably slowed, for now at least.

Discover Magazine notes that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, as measured on top of Hawaii's Mauna Loa reached an all time high of 416.82 parts per million in April, which exceeds the previous high in April, 2019.  For a variety of reasons, carbon dioxide concentrations in the air cycle yearly, with an annual peak in April.

The International Energy Agency expects global carbon dioxide emissions to decrease by 8 percent this year, not enough, really, to significantly alter the forward path of climate change. Scientists are conducting flights around major cities along the East Coast to further study how these Covid shutdowns are affecting carbon emissions.

One intriguing thing to watch: Particulate polllution has decreased with these Covid-19 economic shutdowns. These little particles block a little bit of sunshine from getting through which has had the effect of tempering climate change a bit.

Will this year be hotter globally because of reduced particulate pollution, with more sun getting through?   Scientists are interested in finding out more, that's for sure.

As Expected May Snow And Cold Hits Hard

Snow settles on this weather-weary looking daffodil in my
St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning.

Much of the eastern United States has done a time warp and gone back to March, at least in the weather department.

As expected, there's widespread cold and snow around, and it ain't done yet.  There are some pretty impressive facts and figures with this blast of Arctic air.

New York's Central Park reported a trace of snow, tying with 1977 as the latest snowfall on record there.

Up here in Vermont, some early reports are pretty wild for May 9.  At an elevation of just under 1,500 feet in Cabot, 6.3 inches of powder fell. There was a report of six inches in West Pawlet and 4.8 inches in East Barre.

Heavy snow was reported in Bennington at 7 a.m. There were numerous reports of four or more inches of snow in different parts of Vermont.

At my place in relatively low elevation St. Albans, Vermont, I "missed out" on the snow with an accumulation of only 0.2 inches.  I'm not complaining that I didn't get buried, that's for sure.

The cold in the East is widespread and record breaking.  That's because there's pretty much been nothing like this type and intensity of a blast of cold air straight from the Arctic this time of year.

Dozens of cities reported record lows for today's date. It appears that more than two dozen cities in the Midwest and East at least tied their records for their all time lowest readings in the month of May.  Theres surely a lot of crop damage out there.

In one other snow report I didn't mention earlier, there was 3.7 inches of new snow at a high elevation spot in Readsboro,  The reason I waited to mention this now is because the temperature there was only 24 degrees. The snow there was light and powdery, like January. Not the wet snow you'd expect so late in the season.

This rapid drop in temperature with elevation, as we saw in Readsboro this morning, is key to the rest of the day here in Vermont.

The storm system that brought the snow overnight and this morning is moving away, even as it turns into an incredibly strong nor'easter for this time of year in the Canadian Maritimes and northern Maine.

Another snowy daffodil in my St. Albans, Vermont garden this morning. 

However, the core of the coldest air from the Arctic will be overhead today in northern New England. You'll continue to see these incredibly cold temperatures at high elevations, and it will be ridiculously cold as you go up and up above the mountain tops.

The sun angle this time of year is about the same as it is at the beginning of August. That means a strong sun will try to heat the ground.

Spotty sun is developing as of mid-morning. This sunshine is causing rising air currents. The air currents rise much more quickly and efficiently when it's cold up above.

That creates billowing clouds and showers. Or in today's case, snow showers. The sky might actually be rather picturesque amid these blustery snow showers. I guess that's a bright side, no?

As I mentioned yesterday, today's weird situation will create those numerous snow showers, especially this afternoon.

The winds will be strong and gusty today to begin with, and they will be more so under these snow showers. When or if you get hit by one, you'll get a brief period of heavy snow, stronger wind gusts and a quick temperature drop from today's already low readings.

It's going to be a strange day indeed.  

And one more, just to rub it in. 

The forecast going forward for the next few days hasn't changed much. It'll warm up, sort of Sunday, but stay incredibly cold for this time of year with highs in the 40s to around 50 in the Banana Belts of Vermont.

Monday will be "warmer" still with highs in the 48-55 range. Then we have a setback on Tuesday when it will get colder again with highs staying down in the 40s. After that, the warmup will resume, with near normal temperatures in the  low 60 by Friday.

Before then, we will have almost nightly problems with frosts and freezes at least into Wednesday morning.

The next shot any any real precipitation in Vermont will probably come along next Friday. Mercifully, all that Friday weather will be in the form of rain, NOT snow.

CLIMATE CHANGE:

By the way, this record cold spell says nothing about climate change. Or if it does saying anything about the subject, it's counterintuitive.

While we New Englanders shivered in April, most of the rest of the world was warm. April, globally will likely come in as one of the top three warmest on record.

Also, while this cold wave is freezing gardens throughout the eastern half of the United States, many other places are warm.  The western U.S. is experiencing record high temperatures. Unprecedented warmth has enveloped Siberia, where wildfires are breaking out many weeks before they normally do.

Overall, cold waves are becoming less frequent than they used to. So when you get one like this, it really captures your attention.

You can't judge one odd weather spell in one little corner of the world to pick on climate change.

Having said that,  the bitter Arctic May air is unsettlingly consistent with what a lot of climate scientists have been warning us about.  The world is indeed warming, but it might be making the jet stream, which controls the path of weather systems, much more wavy.

With bigger northward bulges and bigger southward plunges than normal, climate change can make things weirder. Even as it warms up overall, every once in awhile, this newly wavy jet stream can create some sharp, intense cold waves. That is, if you're caught in one of those oddly deep dip in the jet stream, as we currently are.

I can't say one way or another if this particular cold wave has anything to do with the above. But it is similar to what a lot of the climate scientists are tellling us. Just sayin'.

Want Hot Weather? Go To Miami. It's Extreme Down There

I definitely complained about this April snow shower in St. Albans,
Vermont on Friday. Maybe I should have been counting my blessings,
given the trouble and potential trouble record warm air
and water is creating in and near Florida, Cuba and
the Gulf of Mexico 

As I've been mentioning the past few days, Ma Nature has hit the pause button on spring in many areas over the past few days.

A snowstorms swept across the nation, originating in Colorado and going all the way to southern and central New England this morning. Freeze warnings were up yet again in much of the nations middle.

Here in Vermont, temperatures are expected to stay mostly below normal for the next week or so.  It snowed at my St. Albans, Vermont home yesterday for the third day in a row.

Want an antidote to the chill? Head to southern Florida. Well, virtually, anyway, I don't recommend unnecessary travel in this coronavirus pandemic.

Those cold fronts that have been sweeping through the eastern two thirds of the nation keep getting hung up in northern Florida, and never creeping any more south than that.  The result is hot times, really hot times, in places like Miami.

Miami isn't exactly an ice box to start with. The  normal high temperature in Miami this time of year is in the low 80s, with a normal ovenight temperature in the upper 60s.  That's what we would consider a stuffy, rather uncomfortably humid July day here in Vermont.

But to Miamians, normal weather this time of year really isn't that bad. What's been going on so far this month is bad, by their standards.

Six days so far this month have topped 90 degrees. Nights have been brutal. Only one night so far this month got below 70 degrees, and nine days had "low" temperatures of 75 degrees or more. April as a whole is running about seven degrees warmer than normal this  month. This after a March that was 4.6 degrees on the hot side and featured three days up in the 90s.

Climate researcher Brian McNoldy said the first of April was the warmest on record by a full two degrees, and the area is experiencing weather this month more typical of early June. McNoldy said via Twitter that the four consecutive nights recently that stayed at 78 above in Miami broke the record for earliest occurence of that happening by two weeks. "The climate system is broken," he opined.

Well, there's lots of evidence around the globe for that idea, despite the recent relatively brief spell of cool weather well north of Florida.

Miami has gotten no relief from the heat in recent years. In records dating back to 1896, there is a three-way tie for hottest year on record: 2015, 2017 and 2019.  Six of the top 10 hottest years there have been in the past decade.

People in Miami traditionally look forward to winter cold fronts that sweep through the state and off the coast toward Cuba. That's happening with less and less frequency.  For instance this past winter, there was only one brief spell of chilly weather in Miami - back in mid-January when temperatures fell to near 40 degrees. That's cold for South Florida, but certainly not record breaking.

Speaking of Cuba, that nation has been sharing in the extreme heat  On April 13, Cuba reported its hottest temperature on record for the whole nation. It was 102.74 degrees in Veguitas.  That broke the national record set just last year, reports Radio Havana Cuba.

Surrounding water has warmed up a lot, which has possible implications for the weeks and months ahead. The whole Gulf Coast of the United States, and presumably much of the Gulf of Mexico itself, are just coming off the warmest winter on record, or at least one of the warmest on record.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are well above normal as a result.  I can't help but wonder if those warm waters are contributing to the terrible start to the tornado season in the South.

The main reasons for these severe storms has been a series of storms coming across the nation from California to the East Coast.  Each of those storms pulls toasty, humid air northward from the Gulf, which is one critical ingredient for tornado formation.

I can't help but wonder if the air is even warmer, even more humid than it would otherwise be if Gulf of Mexico temperatures were closer to normal.  The warmer and more humid the air, the more juice for severe storms and flooding rains.

Oh, and by the way, more severe storms, flooding and possible tornadoes are expected this Sunday in the Gulf Coast States.

If the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast of the United States remains warmer than normal, as it is now, that could also add more fuel to the fire for hurricanes later this summer and autumn.

It's even possible a tropical or subtropical system or two could form in this unusually warm Gulf of Mexico before the "official" start of hurricane season on June 1.  Tropical systems need nice hot water to form, and the Gulf has plenty of that. It all depends on whether other overall weather patterns can help trigger early tropical systems, and it's too early now to figure that one out.

With all this warm air and water trouble in the South, maybe I shouldn't be complaining about our April Vermont snow showers so much.

How Cononavirus Might Affect Pollution And Climate Change

Map depicts NO2 pollution in China. Map on the left, with the
oranges and reds, shows plenty of NO2.  During the
coronavirus lockdown in China, that pollution
largely disappeared. 

Large swaths of the world, including much of the United States, are in lockdown or near lockdown because of the coronavirus.

That means emissions from businesses, cars, planes and such are also way down.

This, I suppose, is the tiniest of silver linings from this mess is that there is less air pollution out there.

Before I go on, I want to make something crystal clear. Given a choice between a bit of air pollution and no cornonavirus, I would very obviously go with no coronavirus. I, like everybody else on the planet, wish we weren't dealing with this deadly disease.

We wish life had just gone on as normal, even with some air pollution to breath. We all would rather breathe some vagely smoggy air than air that could have that virus floating in it.

But here we are, hunkered down, trying to avoid Covid-19.

Pollution has dropped noticeably in hard hit places.  The most obvious change has been declining concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), first in China, then in Italy, and now in the United States and elsewhere.

NO2 comes from tailpipe emissions, factories, and all kinds of other sources like that. In high enough concentrations, it can cause breathing problems, including in people with asthma.  The reductions of NO2, though, won't help anyone who contracts Covid-19.  The illness is just too overwhelming.

Still, the reductions in nitrogen pollution are striking. The area around hard-hit Milan, Italy saw a 40 percent drop in NO2 compared to last March. Similar declines were seen in China.

More recently, NO2 concentrations are falling fast in cities like London and New York.

NO2 is not a greenhouse gas that causes climate change.  However, carbon dioxide, which comes from the exact same sources as NO2, does cause climate change.   So will the coronavirus blunt the effects of global warming, at least briefly and marginally?

Again, first of all, we don't want coronavirus to be a "cure" for climate change.  Everybody knows it's not worth the price, at all.

Early indications are, this won't have a huge effect on climate change.  True, the amount of carbon dioxide going up into the air will be reduced.  Coal consumption, probably the worst source of climate change pollution, declined by 36 percent in China due to the virus, for instance.

Still, the overall amount of climate changing gases like CO2 won't decline enough to slow or stop climate change.  As Bob Henson writes in the Category 6 blog, we will still be increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the air, just at a slower rate.

Plus, there's already more than enough carbon dioxide floating in the atmosphere to keep climate change going.

There have been economic events - not as big as this one - that caused declines in fossil fuel emissions. But those emissions came roaring back once the global economy recovered.

Here's one more factor Henson brings up:  The lockdowns have also caused a sharp decrease in aerosols going up into the air.  Aerosols are tiny, tiny particles emitted from such things as power plants, vehicles and such.

Aerosols block the sun a bit, which can interfere a little bit with the effects of climate change. Less sun getting through the atmosphere because of aerosols, the less heat gets in.

With less aerosols in the air, the coronavirus could briefly make the world hotter than it otherwise would be in the coming months.

The world's climate generally was getting warmer in the first half of the 20th century until the 1940s, when it leveled off.  Some scientists thing aerosols slowed down or temporarily stopped the heating.  Pollution control legislation in the 1970s reduced atmospheric aerosols, so the temperature could resume rising.  And it did.

We don't yet know what societal changes coronavirus will bring.  Perhaps telecommunting will become a more permanent fixture in the workplace environment, which of course would help bring down fossil fuel emissions.   Perhaps more people will grow a little more food on their own properties, which would also help.

I'm not being Pollyanna here. I need to emphasize again I don't see a bright side to the coronavirus. But this crisis will change the world permanently. Whether it will ultimately be for the better or worse is up to us.

Warmth Means Plants Blooming Too Early In Much Of Nation

Areas in dark read are up to 20 days early with spring budding and blooming
this year, says the National Phenology Network. 

Another burst of warmth is hitting the eastern United States today, bringing forecast temperatures to the 60s as far north as here in Vermont.

A warm winter and early spring has brought early blooms to much of the nation, especially the East and South.

In Vermont, we're far enough north so that we only see budding lilac trees, a few crocuses and sprouting daffodil shoots so far. That's awfully early, but these early signs of spring are not enough to endanger any fruit crops or anything else for that matter.

Which is good, since nighttime temperatures during an expected chilly snap this weekend will be in the single numbers and teens.

Elsewhere, there is concern for crops further south. There's fears that this year will be like 2012 and 2017, which also brought very early spring conditions. In those years, frosts ultimately came, nipping things that had started to blosssom to early in the eastern half of the nation.

A tree blossoms in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard last May.
The way things are going, the  tree will probably bloom
much earlier than usual this spring

Washington DC's famed cherry tree blooms are expected to peak in about a week, which is nearly a week ahead of normal.

Also, according to Scientific American, this year,  "Spring leaf out - the appearance of tiny leaves that signal the start of spring - arrived 24 days early for places like Washington"

And, according to the National Phenology Network, Boston is 23 days ahead of schedule for early spring leafout progress.

Long range forecasts, for what they are worth, predict generally above normal temperatures going into early April at least in the eastern United States. But even a warm pattern can be interrupted by a quick blast of frigid air from Canada.

Remember, it only takes a few hours of subfreezing air to cause damage to tender fruit tree blossoms.

In any event, I guess this year's early spring in terms of weather matches the astronomical calendar.

Astronomical spring began late last night, March 19, which is the earliest that has happened since 1896.

No Surprise: Earth's Second Hottest February

The worldwide climate change heat rolls on.

Last Friday, NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information confirmed that February on Earth was hot: It was the second warmest February on record. Only February, 2016 was a little warmer.

The 2016 February record was set during an El Nino, when warmth from the eastern Pacific Ocean is released into the atmosphere, boosting global temperatures.

This year was a "neutral" El Nino year, which meant the eastern Pacific wasn't unusually hot nor cold, so there was no added heat boost to bring up global tempertures last month.

This, by the way, was the 44th consecutive warmer than normal February on Earth.  The United States, Vermont included, shared in the warm February.  Here in Vermont overall, it was the 15th warmest of thos 126 years of data.

The winter (December through February) as a whole on Earth was also the second warmest on record.

Europe was the episode of this past winter's warmth.  Russia had its toastiest winter on record, and the average temperature for the winter in Moscow was a bit above freezing, which is the first time on record that has happened.

Helsinki, Finland had no measureable snow in January and February, which is the first time on record that has happenened.

Here in Vermont, Burlington  had its eighth warmest winter on record.

The only cool winter spots were Alaska, far northwestern Canada, parts of India and a remote area of the southern Indian Ocean

Is Nashville Tornado Part Of A Long Term Trend? And Other Thoughts On Tennessee

A neighborhood leveled by the tornado in Tennessee this week. Photo by
Mark Humphrey/AP

They continue to pick up the pieces in central Tennessee after Tuesday morning's tornado or tornadoes that killed at least 25 people and caused destruction extending for dozens of miles.

This disaster has people wondering: Is this part of a trend?

The news is disconcerting. According to CNN:

"In recent years, scientists have noticed an increased frequency of tornadoes in the Southeast, carving a deadly path in what's called Dixie Alley.

The region includes portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee,Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia"

While the more traditional Tornado Alley in the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest still  have more tornadoes than the South, the numbers in the South seem to be growing.

Climate change might be a factor.  

Writing for CBS News back in October, 2018, Jeff Berardelli said storm systems are tending to push dry Southwestern desert air into the Southeast further east and more often. Meanwhile,  there is a tendency for more robust pushes of warm, humid, moist and unstable air moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

The leading edge of these impulses of arid air from the west are known as dry lines.  Supercell thunderstorms, which can produce tornadoes, tend to form in the humid air just ahead of the dry line. 

Dry air is less dense than wet air, so it rises more easily.  The dry air that's wanting to rise smashes into the wet air.  The rising air entrains some of that moisture, and you get those thunderstorms.

The tornado peeled apart this stop sign
in Nashville. 

You don't even need an official dry line to get these storms going.  If some dry air moves in from the west into humid air, supercell storms can easily develop in the conditions are right.  That's why these intrusions of dry air into the Southeast can be so problematic.

Now, we can't say Tuesday's Tennessee's tornadoes were "caused" by climate change and the associated rejiggering of dances between different pieces of the atmosphere. After all, deadly tornadoes have always occured in the Southeast.  

For instance, a tornado outbreak in the Southeast in March, 1875 killed 96 people. Another tornado outbreak in 1884 killed scores of people in Alabama.   Tuesday's tornado was the third major tornado to slice through Nashville. The others were in 1933 and 1998.

So all we can say is Tuesday's tornadoes in and around Nashville were consistent with the trend scientists have been seeing.

Southeastern tornadoes are often deadlier for numerous reasons, most of which were present in the Nashville tornado.  Southeast tornadoes are a little more likely to occur early in the season, when jet stream winds make a tornado's forward speed go into overdrive.  Which means there's little time for warning.

Also, as CNN points out, Southeast tornadoes are more likely to occur late at night, instead of late afternoon or evening in Tornado Alley. That means people aren't awake to hear warnings. (The Nashville tornado came through a little after 12:30 a.m.)

The Southeast is more densely populated than the Great Plains, so the more occupied houses are likely to be hit in the South. There's a lot more trees that can topple onto homes, and those trees make it harder to see the twister coming.  Plus, Southeastern tornadoes are more likely to be wrapped in rain.  When that happens, they just look like nasty thunderstorms, and not deadly funnel shaped tornadoes.

TRUMP'S EXAGGERATION

The East End United Methodist Church in Nashvillle was
severely damaged. Photo by Mark Humphrey/AP

The following isn't as big a deal, given the loss of life and destruction in Tennessee. But it's still worth mentioning, as accuracy is important.

President Trump always has to make anything he's involved in the biggest and grandest. It makes him feel like he's handling unprecedented stuff with aplomb. That's nothing close to the truth, but whatevs.

Trump tweeted Wednesday that he's going to Tennessee to support tornado victims, which is of course nice. But he had to note the tornado had a "record size and velocity."

No and nope. The Tennessee tornadoes were certainly stronger than most.  There's a five point so called "EF" scale to measure the ferocity of tornadoes.  An EF-5 is the strongest possible.  The strongest Tennesee tornado was an EF-4 and other tornadoes, or other parts of one tornado path were at a high end EF-3, according to preliminary reports.  

Just five percent of tornadoes reported annually in the United States are EF3, EF4 or EF5 level (EF5's are rare and don't even happen every year. So yeah, the Nashville tornado was bad.

But highest winds in the Tennessee tornadoes were an estimated 165 mph or so.  The strongest known winds in a tornado reached about 305 mph in Oklahoma City and its suburbs on May 3, 1999.

The Tennessee tornadoes were probably no more than a half mile wide. Again, that's unusually large for a tornado. But it wasn't close to the record. That mark is held by a 2.6-mile wide tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013.

YES, THERE WERE WARNINGS

Some news reports said that the tornadoes "came without warning," which is false. The National Weather Service office in Nashville issued tornado warnings as the storms rapidly approached the metro area, then raced eastward into the suburbs and small towns for a few dozen miles east of Nashville.

The warnings went out about five to 10 minutes before the tornadoes struck.  That's not a lot of time to prepare, but you can at least get yourself to an interior room or basement. Tornado warnings generally don't have much lead time, especially when tornadoes have a fast forward speed, like the Tennessee tornadoes.

However, some people didn't hear warnings.  That's the difference.  NWS/Nashville did a top-notch job with the warnings, but if people didn't hear or see said warnings, they were worthless, at least to the people who didn't get them.

To get warnings, people should have multiple ways to get them.  For instance, some people rely on warnings from their cell phones. Which is a great way to receive warnings. However, in eastern parts of the tornado zone, some cell phones didn't go off, because the tornado had already wrecked cell towers.

However, weather radios, which broadcast tornado warnings immediately, worked just fine.  So people in tornado -prone zones should probably have two simultaneous ways to get warnings. Set up your phone app, but also buy an inexpensive weather radio. Weather radios cost between $25 and $100, depending on how many bells and whistles you want with it.

Don't rely on outdoor storm sirens.  Those are meant to alert people who are outdoors to take shelter. You won't necessarily hear them from inside your house.

Also, know where to go during a tornado warning and know how to do it quickly.  Basements are best. If you don't have one, go to a closet in the center of the house.  Have blankets and pillows ready there to cover yourself up as added protection.  Another good idea is to have bicycle or motorcycle helmets ready in your safe shelter to put on.  You want to protect your head if there's flying debris, so this would help.

Storm Dennis Causes Major British Disaster

Extensive flooding in England from Storm Dennis last weekend

The United Kingdom this week is busy picking up the pieces after Storm Dennis.

That was the storm that last weekend was billed as something that would possibly become the strongest storm on record in the North Atlantic.

It came close. The central barometric pressure of a storm is a good measure of how strong it is. Dennis bottomed out at 919 millibars, which is the third strongest storm on record in the North Atlantic.

It's also the ninth strongest non-hurricane storm on record for the entire Northern Hemisphere.  

It produced wind gusts of up to 159 mph in Iceland, but saved its worst destructive punch for Great Britain.  The center of Storm Dennis stayed well north and west of the British Isles.  So the waves and storm surges, while destructive, weren't the worst on record.

However, the vast reach of Dennis really screwed Great Britain.  Consider the storm's cold front at one point stretched from roughly Edinburgh, Scotland to Miami, Florida, an incredible distance of at least 4,200 miles.

That meant there was an immense feed of warmth and tropical humidity drawn far north by Storm Dennis. Which, in turn, meant downpours.  Some areas in Scotland and northern England had a month's worth of rain in two days.

Worse, another very strong storm, named Ciara, came through six days earlier with its own bout of heavy rain and flooding.  The result was some of the most serious inland flooding Great Britain has seen in decades.  Videos are at the bottom of this post.

Some areas in southern Scotland received more than six inches of rain from Dennis.

There were some 200 different flood warnings in effect across Great Britain due to the floods from Dennis, says the BBC.

The storm has left England, but rivers remain high, and some won't fall below flood stage for several days.

By the way, that warmth drawn far north by Storm Dennis brought record warmth to much of western Europe. They've had an incredibly warm winter there.  The result of this Dennis-related warmth and the balmy winter is a weirdly early spring.

The cold front from massive Storm Dennis at one point stretched from
Scotland to Florida guaranteeing a massive flow of tropical
moisture and flooding rains across Great Britain.

All this, once again, brings up the question of climate change. Was Storm Dennis a sign of this dangerous global warming?

I'll start with the caveat we're all familiar with: One storm or weather phenomenon doesn't prove or disprove climate change at all. Weather is variable, and freaks can happen, with or without climate change.  

The global warming scenario for storms like Dennis is complicated, though. Many scientists believe that mega-storms like Dennis in the North Atlantic would actually become less frequent as climate change worsens.

However, storms around much of the world, including Great Britain, will have the capacity to dump heavier rain than they do now.   That trend toward heavier precipitation events has already begun, and is expected to become worse.

Warmer air can hold more moisture than a cooler atmosphere. Under the right conditions, the added moisture in a toastier world can cause heavier downpours than what have generally occured in the past.

In any event, I'm sure many Britains are so busy cleaning up after the floods that they might not be thinking about the nuances of climate change.

Here's a couple Dennis compilation videos:



Here's a fairly long but worth watching compilation video of the widespread flooding in the UK:



Here's an equally good second-day compilation of Storm Dennis:



 For some reason, the visuals in this news report remind of Waterbury, Vermont during the epic Tropical Storm Irene flood of 2011:



An outfit called Cornish Walking Tours sounds like a great thing to sign up for, except for during Storm Dennis. Corning Walking Tours put out this video of storm waves battering St. Agnes, Cornwall:



On one small bright side, Storm Dennis picked up a little mess that it made and set everything right:

A Balmy Part Of Antarctica Is Scaring People Worried About Climate Change

Esperanza Base, Antarctica just recorded the icy continent's hottest
temperature on record - 65 degrees. Photo via NBC News
by Vanderlei Almeda/AFP and Getty Images

A temperature of 65 degrees isn't all that hot.  It's nice, sure, but nothing extreme.

Unless you're in Antarctica.

Last week, a research center and weather station called Esperanza Base  on the northern edge of Antarctica's Trinity Peninsula got up to 64.9 degrees, which is the hottest temperature on record in that frigid continent at the bottom of the world.

The old record for Antarctica was 63.5 degrees on March 24, 2015.

True, the Trinity Peninsula is the toastiest part of Antarctica, jutting north toward South America. It's the area of Antarctica that's furthest away from the South Pole, so it is bound to be warmer than the rest of this icy continent.

Still, the area around the Trinity Peninsula, and much of the area around Antarctica has been warming rapidly in recent decades so this does alarm climate scientists.

"To have a new record set that quickly is surprising - but who knows how long that will last? Possibly not that long at all," James Renwick of Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand told The Guardian. 

Some caveats to this Antarctic warm record: The area where this warm temperature was set is prone to balmy  northerly winds coming down the slopes of nearby mountains. So this warm day was surely a natural, normal event, probably made a little more extreme by climate change.

Usually, these warm winds allow temperatures at Esperanza Base to rise to only 50 degrees or so.

The 65-degree record is preliminary and will need to be verified by experts.

Scientists are alarmed by warming around Antarctica because certain glaciers and ice shelves are prone to melting in a warmer world. That would contribute to destructive global sea level rise.

About 87 percent of glaciers along the west coast of Trinity Peninsula have retreated over the past 50 years, and that trend has accelerated over the past dozen years or so, according to the World Meteorological Organization, as reported by NBC News.

Bad News For All Of Us, Especially Climate Denialists: 2019 2nd Hottest On Record

The year 2019 was the second hottest on record says NOAA.
On this map, shades of red are warmer than average for 2019,
blue is colder than average.  Central North America
was the only real cold spot. 

It was predictable and expected news earlier this month, but it's still alarming:

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information just came out with their global assessment for the year 2019.

In case you missed it, 2019 was the world's second hottest year on record.

Here's part of a summary from NCEI:

"For 2019, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.71... degrees above the 20th century average. This was the second highest among all years in the 1880-2019 record and just 0.07 (degrees F.) less than the record value set in 2016.

2019 marks the 43rd consecutive year (since 1977) with global land and ocean temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average.

The five warmest years have occured since 2015; nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005. The year 1998 is the only 20th century year among the 10 warmest on record.

The annual global land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of +0.13F per decade since 1880; however, since 1981, the average rate of increase is more than twice that rate (+0.32F).

For the 21-year span that is considered a reasonable surrogate for pre-industrial conditions (1880-1900), the 2019 global land and ocean temperature waws 2.07F above the average."

I dunno. Do you see a trend here?

Well, a few people don't see this. The year 2019 seemed to be year a lot of the media dubbed as the time people got it. That the world is warming up and it is dangerous. A crisis, really.

However, there's still that lively group that will tell you that the world is not warming up. Or if it is, it's just a temporary, natural cycle. Or, if they do concede warming is happening, it's not a big deal.

The denialists can just drive you crazy if you let them.  Their counterpoint to this latest bit of news on 2019 and climate change and other world warming news is like this:

"Yeah, but South Dakota had one of its coldest years on record in 2019!"  True, but as South Dakota goes, so goes the world? Um.....

If one more idiot tells me that climate change doesn't exist because some Podunk town had a record low temperature, I'm going to scream. You don't want to hear my scream. It's awful.

Still, they persist.

Back in November, felon and one of the most vile, most stupid commentators out there (and that's saying something!) Dinesh D'Souza tweeted this gem:

"Remember nuclear winter? Of course you don't.  That's because it didn't happen. Yet it was all the rage on the Left in the 1980s. A generation from now, no one will recall climate change either, and for the same reason. The apocalypse has become a political racket!"

Can I be Captain Obvious here again?  People feared nuclear winter but it didn't happen because Russia and the United States decided it would be a bad idea to nuke each other into oblivion.   Friggin' idiot!

Social media sure as hell isn't helping. I don't know exactly how large a percentage of the public is in the climate denial camp, but platforms like Facebook, Twitter and YouTube certainly amplify the false voices of this denialism.

I'll offer just one example: On January 16, Time magazine online reported:

"YouTube has been 'actively promoting' videos containing misinformation about climate change, a report released Thursday by campaign group Avaaz claims, despite recent policy changes by the platform intended to drive users away from harmful content and conspiracy theories."

When you go on YouTube, there's an 'Up Next' feature.  You're watching the video you want to watch, which is the first video in the list of videos on the right side of the screen that YouTube's algorithms think you'd want to watch.

According to the Time report:

"'We've found that it's very likely that at least one in five users who search or a term like global warming or climate change could be sent down this type of misinformation rabbit hole,'" says Fadi Quran, a campaigns director at Avaaz, and one of the report's authors. 'Scientists are working so hard to educate people about the existential threat we face and YouTube is allowing bad actors among us the last word on this issue for many people.'"

Previous studies have suggested that the majority of videos related to climate change on YouTube are at odds against what scientists are telling us.

Even with all this, there are islands of optimism , as a piece in  The Guardian points out, 2019 might have been the year that climate denialism might have been defeated. At least partially:

"The global climate strike, Greta Thunberg's meteoric rise to international prominence, as well as several high-profile international conferences and reports - all contributed in putting climate skeptics on the back foot.

"Even Donald Trump, who previously claimed that the climate crisis was a 'hoax' invented by China to hold back American industry has begun to brag  all his administration has done to address it."

Never mind the fact that Trump's bragging, as always, is a fake facade. Trump is rebranding before our eyes, like he always does to suit his needs.  Trump has done pretty much nothing in terms of  climate change at all, and now his position is that climate activitsts and others are just negative people.

Trump notwithstanding, the discussion around climate change is now mostly how to address it, and not whether we should address it. This is a debate we should have had at least a couple decades ago but better late than never, I suppose. I'm glad we've at least reached this point.

That Guardian article/editorial, which is definitely worth reading, summarizes the many different approaches to what we can and should do about climate change.

It boils down to this, according to the Guardian in one of the best basic outlines of where we stand:

"No one seems quite clear what is the ultimate goal of the global fight against the climate crisis. Is it merely to enable constant economic growth in a sustainable way, or is it about imposing limits on humanity's ambitions in pursuit of a more harmonious relationship with nature."

Climate denialist have long said environmentalists' goals are to take freedom and independence and wealth away from you and me.

Will we find sustainable ways to keep something like our current lifestyle going?  Do we need to keep our current lifestyle going? Should we find something more sustainable, but still far from some grim dystopia? How?

I guess it depends on whether some of the great minds of the world find solutions, or at least paths forward, or whether the usual opportunists make things worse.....

This is one hell of a season finale cliff hanger, folks.