Yes, Blizzard Storm In Plains Is Bad. Next Storm Could Be Worse

Lots of colors on the National Weather Service map, especially in the
northern Plains means lots of weather alerts. The red area is under
a blizzard warning. An active weather pattern over the next
week means there will be plenty of other weather warnings
and advisories in different parts of the nation.

As expected, a blizzard is striking a broad area from Colorado to Minnesota today, closing roads, worsening flooding and generally just being dangerous and highly unwelcome.

This might not be the worst of it. A new storm expected to start forming in Texas Satureday is likely to cause more trouble from the Gulf Coast to New England.

Unlike the current storm, the next one is poised to bring a lot more in terms of severe storms and tornadoes to the South. It also poses something of a flood threat in northern New England.

The storm now pounding the northern and central Plains isn't set up to create much in the way of severe storms on its southern flank. That's a bit unusual for such a strong storm, but it is fortunate.

There were some reports of large hail and gusty winds in and around Kansas last night, and there might be some strong wind gusts with thunderstorms today in and around Illinois, but this won't be a blockbuster severe weather outbreak.

That's not to minimize the effects of this storm. It's serious, and will cause a lot of additional flooding, especially when the up to two feet of snow expected to accumulate in some parts of South Dakota and Minnesota melt this weekend and next week. Rivers in this region were already flooding before this storm, so ---- not good.

Then there's the next storm.

Areas in yellow and orange are being watched for the risk of
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms Saturday.

It's always hard to pinpoint well in advance if a weather system will cause a lot of severe weather and tornadoes, but the new storm forecast to form in Texas and move northeastward toward New England over the weekend has forecasters nervous.

There's at least the potential that rotating storms will form well east of the storm's cold front. That could mean a dangerous tornado outbreak in the Deep South Saturday and Sunday.

Of course, severe weather forecasting is tricky. The South might get lucky and escape a widespread outbreak of tornadoes, but this is perhaps the highest potential for dangerous weather we've seen so far this spring.

Tornado outbreaks can be more dangerous in the South than in the Plains, by the way. More people live in mobile homes in the South than in the Plains, and manufactured homes are more dangerous in tornadoes that more rigid buildings. The South is more populated than the Plains, so tornadoes have more targets.

Many people make the mistake of looking for the approaching tornado when they get a warning rather than immediately taking shelter. In the South, tornadoes are more likely to be wrapped in heavy rain and thus invisible, compared to storms further west. Plus, there's lots of trees in the South, which blocks the view of approaching dangers.

VERMONT/NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS

Certainly there are no tornadoes in the Vermont and New England forecast anytime in the near future, but this weekend storm does pose potential trouble.

Let's break it down:

The giant storm now striking the upper Midwest will move into Canada by Friday night and drag a weakening cold front through Vermont later Friday night or early Saturday. This will just drop perhaps a quarter inch of rain, which isn't that big a deal.

There's not much in the way of cold air immediately behind the cold front, so Saturday will probably be the warmest day so far this year. Temperatures will probably get into the 60s for many of us.

The light rain Friday night and the warm temperatures Saturday night will "prime the pump" so to speak. Deep mountain snow will start to really melt, and elevate river levels.

Then the storm from the South comes in Sunday night and Monday and it will drag a lot of moisture up with it. We could get an inch or even more of rain out of this and the snow in the mountains will continue to melt.

That means we have our first real threat of the spring that rivers could go over their banks. Nobody is sure how serious the flooding will be or even if we will get any. Just note that roads and properties in flood plains could go under water Monday and Tuesday, so plan accordingly.

This won't be a Hurricane Irene style flood, if it occurs, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Beyond Tuesday, the weather pattern looks very active for the next two weeks, with the potential for frequent rain storms. If that comes to pass, we'll have to watch Lake Champlain. Water levels in the lake are currently rising, like they do every spring.

As of this morning, the lake level was at 98.31 feet above sea level. Flood stage is 100 feet. Lake flooding starts to get damaging at around 101 feet, and there is the potential the lake could get that high in the coming weeks.

Again, it might or might not happen. And it won't be as bad as the devastation of 2011. But if you have lakeshore property, it's time to start preparing for possible flooding.