Shower Chances, Maybe Strong South, Tropics Turning Active

Hanging baskets looking to the clouds and waiting for rain recently
on my back deck in St. Albans, Vermont. Flower and structural
design by my husband, Jeff Modereger

It's still not nearly as wet as I'd like it to be here in Vermont as the trend in below normal rainfall has continued since it at least April.

There are chances for showers and storms off and on through next week.  But I don't see anything major at this point. It also appears  - for now, anyway - that the imaginary anti-rain force in the Champlain Valley is holding strong.

Shower and storm chances look best for the next couple of days outside the Champlain Valley, though we can hold out some hope a stray shower will hit there, too.

There's actually a chance of strong to severe storms today in far southern Vermont and points south of there through southwestern New England down into the Middle Atlantic states.  High winds are the biggest threat in this broad area of severe storm risk, though an isolated, brief tornado can't be ruled out.

Further north, there might be a rumble or two of thunder, but nothing huge. Already this morning, a narrow band of showers has dampened a good chunk of southern Vermont, but that was moving out.

By later today and this evening, there will be a good shot at some showers outside the Champlain Valley.  In the valley, there will probably be some patches of rain, but the chances are there are a little less than elsewhere in the state, at least in my opinion.

It looks like more showers and storms will form tomorrow, but again, the best coverage seems like it could be outside the Champlain Valley.  It's not that northwestern Vermont will miss out on the rain. That area will almost certainly get some.  Just not as much as points south and east.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of Vermont of most of the Northeast in a marginal risk zone for severe storms on Thursday. That means there might be isolated incidents of strong, damagiing wind gusts, but nothing widespread.

The next real chance of rain in Vermont after tomorrow will come along on Sunday.  No guarantees on how much that will amount to, but all the meteorologists will surely keep an eye on that.

TROPICAL TROUBLE

Hurricane experts have ramped up the alarm bells about this year's hurricane season potential, given the unusually warm waters in much of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form. Other atmospheric factors still favor a lot of storms. Even worse, the current weather pattern, it it holds, would tend to steer storms toward the United States.

Summertime clouds not quite getting their act together enough
to produce showers this past Monday over St. Albans, Vermont.

We've already had hints of a troublesome year, since we're way ahead of normal in terms of how many tropical storms have already formed. There's already been six, but thankfully, they've all tended to be pretty weak.

Stronger hurricanes tend to get going in August and September, and you should expect the tropics to start becoming more active right about now.

The tropics certainly got that memo. Probably by the time you read this, Tropical Storm Gonzalo will have formed way out in the central Atlantic.  From there it will move west toward the Caribbean Sea, but exactly where and at what strength is anybody's guess

Wannabe Gonzalo is a tiny, cute little thing spinning out there.  Tropical systems that are small in size are notoriously hard to forecast, both in terms of strength and direction.  When such a storm is tiny, just a little bit of dry air intruding or a few gusts of strong upper level winds can tear it apart and kill it.

On the other hand, a tiny storm can defy predictions and cloak itself in its own protective shield of moisture, and strengthen quickly.   Right now the National Hurricane Center is taking, in my opinion, a correct conservative approach and just maintaining Wannabe Gonzalo as a tropical storm right through the weekend.  They'll surely change and update this forecast in the coming days.

It's possible Wannabe Gonzalo could pose a United States threat next week, but that is a big question mark right now.

Another weaker tropical type system is lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.  It's unlikely to become a tropical storm, though some computer models think it will strengthen to that level.  It's headed toward Texas, and will give parts of that state a deep soaking this coming weekend.

Another batch of storms that will move off the west coast of Africa in the next few days will also have to be watched in case it turns into an eventual threat.

Storm Damage Widespread In Vermont; Now The Heat

Severe warned storm on approach to Sheldon, Vermont Wednesday.
The storm toppled trees and power lines in this and other
Vermont towns. 

We had the wildest storm outbreak of the season on Wednesday here in Vermont, with some welcome rains, but also some pretty substantial damage from severe weather.

Most of the damage involved trees and power lines, but siding was damaged on a house in Essex, there were reports of structural damage around Danby, and sidiing damaged by hail the size of ping pong balls in Fair Haven.

The pattern of damage in New England almost exactly matched the area that was under a severe thunderstorm warning.  The warning, and areas of damage were almost exclusively across Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine.

In northern Vermont, the main swath of damage seemed to go on a long track starting in Alburgh and Swanton, continuing to through Sheldon an into eastern Franklin County around Bakersfield and Fairfield. It continued on through eastern Chittenden County,especailly around Essex, Jericho and Bolton, then into the Fayston/Moretown/Waitsfield area in central Vermont.

At least the storms brought some welcome rain.  I was on the edge of the damaging swath that went from Swanton through Sheldon and on into the Bakersfield area.  There was no wind damage on my St. Albans property, but my rain gauge collected a healthy 1.3 inches of rain in less than an hour. I noticed a fair amount of street flooding in downtown St. Albans.

CITIZEN SCIENTISTS HELP

Another view of the severe  thunderstorm in Sheldon, Vermont
on Wednesday 

By the way, the damage reports are a great example of how citizen scientists can help the National Weather Service improve forecasts.

Yesteday was a great example.  NWS meteorologist can't be all over the state, observing ongoing thunderstorms.  

They looked at radar trends with these storms, and issued severe thunderstorm warnings when radar images they were looking at indicated danger in these storms.

If you report damage from a storm to the National Weather Service, it helps verify their forecasts and  improves warnings.

For instance, if a bunch of damage reports come in from an area under a servere thunderstorm warning, that helps meteorologists understand there really is danger if they see similar radar trends in the future.

On the other hand, if a certain radar pattern seems to indicate dangerous storms, but that particular pattern never seems to yield real-life damage reports, then maybe that radar pattern doesn't really reflect threatenin weather.

There are a few general ground rules when reporting storms. First of all, do it only when it's safe. Don't go outside to measure the size of the downed tree if the wind is still blowing a million miles an hour and the hail falling is the size of canned hams, as David Letterman would put it.

When reporting the storm damage, be specific. To the best of your ability, tell the National Weather Service exactly what happened and where, and what time. If you have GPS coordinates great, report those, but most of us don't have that ability.

So report something like this:  "Large tree down on wires at 25 Main Street, Funkytown, Vermont, power is out. Occured at 4:15 p.m. ."  Sending along photos helps.  Don't bother reporting minor damage, like a three inch long dead twig coming off the old maple.

Definitely have a "just the facts ma'am" attitude when reporitng.  Don't complain that the power outage interrupted the season finale of "Real Housewives of Enosburg Falls"

It's probably wise not to telephone the National Weather Service office when they're busy issuing warnings -- too distracting. Call though, if it's an extreme issue, like a tornado touchdown happening in front of you.

I tend to tweet my reports to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. It's @NWSBurlington.   The more citizen reports of legitimate storm danage reported to the NWS the better.

Reporting on storms isn't limited to summer thunderstorms. Also report wind damage, snow, ice, flooding during any season.

ON TO THE FORECAST

As we have been advertising, it's going to be a really hot, oppressive couple of days. Yesterday's storms freshened the air last night, but that's over. Expect high humidity and temeratures in the low 90s both today and Friday.   Tonight will be stuffy for sure.

The weather people are still watching a disturbance that's now near the coast of North Carolina. There's a good chance it will turn into Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Fay.

Wannabe Fay will track northward just off the East Coast, but the devil is in the details.  We know it will affect southern and coastal New England, but that's about it.

It leads to what the National Weather Service in South Burlington calls a tricky weekend forecast for Vermont. Some computer models take Wannabe Fay just off the east coast of New England, or over Providence and Boston.

A few computer models take it inland in New Jersey, then up New York's Hudson River Valley and through Vermont. That path still seems rather unlikely, but would give us a good, benefitical soaking rain.

Remember, even if Wannabe Fay develops into a tropical storm, it won't be a powerhouse in terms of wind  Heavy rain is a threat, not wind.

Meanwhile, another weather disturbance will be approaching from the west. That will dance with either Wannabe Fay or the deep tropical moisture it brings north into New England.

How this plays out is anybody's guess, but at least it gives us a high chance of showers over the weekend.  We certainly could use more rain, even after yesterday's storms.  If the rain is locally torrential, though, there could be a couple spot instances of flash flooding.

Although clouds and showers will keep temperatures below 90 degrees over the weekend, the humidity will still be awful.  Remember, Wannabe Fay is bringing deep tropical air north into New England.

On top of that, once all the showers clear our early next week, we're still definitely at risk for another hot, dry spell late next week.

Good Weather News: Recent Nationwide Tornado Shortage

Shelf cloud from a severe thunderstorm over Colchester, Vermont
in June, 2017. There are some occasional storm chances
in Vermont over the next week or two, starting this evening. 

Back in April, amid some deadly tornado outbreaks in the United States, I was warning that perhaps the worst was yet to come, given that May and June are the peak tornado months in the nation.

Turns out any forecast of a bunch of tornadoes was a thankful bust. Tornado activity in the U.S. in May and June was at or near record lows.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center tweeted that so far, they've only counted 50 tornadoes in June, the lowest number since 1952.

A few more tornadoes might be confirmed from June after more investigations, but the number will almost certainly be at a record low.

Only six tornado watches were issued in the U.S. during June, the least on record,  besting eight watches, the previous record low set just last year.  For May and June combined, there were only 16 tornado watches, easily breaking the record for least number of such alerts during the two months. The old record was 28 such watches in 2018.

Interestingly, one of tornado watches in May included parts of Vermont, an area we all know is decidedly not tornado alley. No tornado is known to have touched down in Vermont so far this year.

Overall, there were 4,044 reports of severe weather - thunderstorm winds, hail and tornadoes - in June, which is somewhat below the average of 4,940 for the month, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

We're past the peak of tornado season for sure, but of course tornadoes and severe weather can and do still occur in July and beyond.

If you for some reason you are a Vermonter who like severe thunderstorms, there's a very slight chance you'll be in luck later today.

A squirt of rather hot, humid air is making its way into the state today, which should prompt high temperatures in the 80s to locally around 90 degrees.

Meanwhile, a weak cold front is pressing south and southeastward from Quebec and there's a relatively fast flow of air developing overhead, coming down from the northwest.  This has the potential to help produce scattered thunderstorms, a couple of which might have strong to damaging gusty winds.

This is most likely in northern Vermont, but even there, the chances of any one place being hit by such a severe storm is on the low side. The Storm Prediction Center has northern New England and northern New York in a marginal risk zone for severe storms later today.

Marginal risk is the lowest of five alert levels for severe storms and means that there's a chance of isolated, localized severe weather.

We are getting into an interesting weather pattern that could bring us more rounds of scattered, gusty thunderstorms over the next week or more.

A dome of very hot air is setting up over the central United States and south-central Canada.

We here in Vermont will be on the eastern edge of this hot dome, which means we'll get periods of very warm, humid air.  At the same time, with the center of this "heat dome" to our west, the overall air flow will come from the northwest, riding down the front side of this high pressure ridge.

Such a northwest flow on the edge of a hot air mass, is a recipe for scattered, sometimes severe storms as little disturbances move southeastward in this airflow toward us.

It's hard to predict when or if any of these thunderstorms will develop any more than a day or two in advance. The storms also won't necessarily happen every day, and won't necessarily be all that widespread.

But while you're enjoying, or not enjoying the rather warm and sticky weather in the forecast for the next week or two, keep an eye out for thunderstorms, especially during afternoons and evenings

A Little Rain Came Today, Still Could Use A Soaker

Before this morning's rain, we had a breezy, summery evening
Wednesday in St. Albans, Vermont.

It was nice to wake up in St. Albans, Vermont today to the sound of some morning showers moving through. It wasn't anything too heavy, but enough that for once I probably don't have to irrigate the gardens today.

There is a shot at a little more rain as a cold front comes through around early to mid afternoon, but it will probably be hit and miss.

It continues to be drier than it should be for June.  As of midnight, Burlington has had only a quarter inch of rain so far this month, which is an inch below normal.

It hadn't really rained in Burlington yet  today as of 7 a.m., but some showers looked like they would go through that neck of the woods.

I mentioned a threat of severe thunderstorms today in Vermont, and I suppose that might happen here and there, but there won't be anything widespread.  Depending upon how much sun breaks out after the early showers, there might be enough instability to trigger some pretty good, but spotty storms.

This morning's showers might have stabilized the air a bit, which would - maybe - lower the already relatively low chance of severe storms.

If the rambunctious storms do develop, it would come mostly between noon and 5 p.m, earliest in New York and the Champlain Valley.  The best chance of severe storms would probably be in eastern Vermont during the mid to perhaps late afternoon.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center as of early this morning had all of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.  That's the lowest of five alert levels. It means there's a possibility of isolated severe storms, but they'd be limited in duration and coverage.

After today, there doesn't appear to be much chance of more rain for several days.  Another cold front Friday afternoon will probably set off a smattering of showers, but don't look for anything major.

A storm in the upper atmosphere is likely to set up somewhere in the eastern United States over the weekend. At this point,  it looks like it will be too far south to give Vermont much precipitation.  There's always the chance it could pull a surprise and set up further north, but for now, the heavy rain associated with that system looks like it will hit places like Virginia and North Carolina.

So drink up today's water from the sky, dear garden plants.  Looks like I'll be attacking you with the hose in the coming days.

Weather Surprises Keep Popping Up Nearby And Beyond

Storm chaser Simon Brewer, who usually spends his time in the
Great Plains chasing tornadoes, had to travel to Glens Falls, New York
to capture this impressive wall cloud, that did produce a tornado. 

Although I don't have super shocking weather news to bring up today, there are still plenty of reports to confirm the weather is always surprising, in small and big ways.

First of all, I'm a little surprised I have to make this correction: 

Unlike what I said in yesterday's post, "no tornado is known to have touched down in that area," a tornado DID in fact touch down in that thunderstorm with the impressive wall cloud around Glens Falls.

The National Weather Service office in Albany New York confirms that Glens Falls storm, and presumably its wall cloud, DID produce a tornado.

The tornado was an EF-1 with winds of between 75 and 110 mph. It damaged at least one home and sheared off and uprooted many trees not far from Interstate 87 in Glens Falls. It actually crossed that busy highway, but luckily, it was a bit weaker by the time it hit that Interstate.

I'm impressed by how wide and long-tracked the tornado was for this far into the interior Northeast. Usually tornadoes are narrow and very brief.  This one was at one point as much as a quarter mile wide and the tornado traveled a total of 8.6 miles before lifting.

This was the second time within two weeks that a tornado touched down close to the southwestern Vermont border. In both cases, the tornado's parent thunderstorm moved into Vermont, caused straight line wind damage.  This time, Poultney was pretty hard hit by those winds.

WASHINGTON/OREGON STORMS

Speaking of surprising severe thunderstorms, it was eastern Washington State and Oregon's turn to endure supercells and damaging storms. It's fairly rare for conditions to come together in this part of the country for a lot of severe weather, but they sure did on Saturday.

Winds with these storms gusted as high as 97 mph in Washington, 85 mph in Oregon and 83 mph in Idaho.  I'm unsure if any tornadoes touched down with these storms. I'm sure local National Weather Service offices will be checking on that. There were certainly plenty of reports of damage in this area.

QUEBEC/CANADIAN YO-YO WEATHER

We here in Vermont have certainly cooled down from that record heat we and Quebec had last week.

That heat spread into much of eastern Canada as the week closed. Record highs included 93 degrees in Bathurst, New Brunswick,  31.8 in Gaspe, Quebec, 84 in Gander, Newfoundland and 82 in St. John's Newfoundland.

Up in Quebec, where temperatures were in the 80s and well into the 90s,  things had gotten ridiculously cool by this morning. Snow was reported in the Laurentian highlands this morning.

Don't worry, that snow won't work itself nearly this far south. We're done with snow until autumn.  But it will be remarkably cool for the season, with high temperatures in most of northern Vermont not making it past 60 degrees today. That's more typical for late April.  Monday will be quite cool as well before a warming trend kicks in to bring us up into the seasonable 70s by the end of the week.

The secondary cold front that brought in today's cool weather also managed to surprise me last night. It was expected to only produce sprinkles.  But there was widespread rains last evening across northern Vermont.  It wasn't super heavy, but my rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont collected 0.12 inches of rain, and I was expecting nothing more than a trace.

Transition Out Of Heat Brings Vermont/Northeast Severe Risk Today

This image from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
shows much of Vermont and New York under a slight risk
of severe storms today (areas in yellow).

Today will be the last day of the unseasonable, record breaking  heat and humid that has enveloped northern New England and southern Quebec.

The price for this transition will be the risk of severe thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a large chunk of the interior Northeast away from the coast under a slight risk of severe weather. This includes all of Vermont except basically the Connecticut River Valley, which is under a marginal risk.  

A slight risk for severe storms is level two out of five on the alert scale for dangerous weather. A slight risk means that scattered severe storms are possible, but they would generally be not terribly long lived. An isolated intense storm could develop, too.

I'm thinking it's possible part of the slight risk zone could go up a step to number three on the alert level, which is "enhanced" risk.  That would mean a somewhat more widespread outbreak.  I would emphasize this idea of an upgrade to level three enhanced is JUST speculation on my part and NOT part an official National Weather Service forecast.

One thing that would help big storms get going is if sunshine  between now and early this afternoon helps destabilize the atmosphere. Satellite images early this morning showed a fair number of breaks in the clouds over Vermont and upstream in New York.

The main risks with today's severe weather threat in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeastsare strong straight line winds and downbursts.  These could be enough to cause local damage to trees, power lines and maybe even structures.  Most of us won't see anything that bad, but a lot of us will hear thunder, see lightning and probably get a gusty downpour or at least a shower our of it.

There is even a remote chance of a brief spinup tornado once again from around Montreal south through the Champlain Valley and on down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians all the way to North Carolina.

There is some spin - changing wind direction with height - that could create some rotating thunderstorms. Remember, though: Just because a thunderstorm is spinning doesn't always mean it will produce a tornado. It's something to watch today, just in case.  Don't count on a tornado, though. It's a very, very low chance.

Another thing to consider today is the risk of so-called training thunderstorms. That's when a line of thunderstorms, like boxcars on a train track, go over the same spot over and over again. These storms can cause torrential rains and flash flooding.

The risk of this happening today is fairly low, because it's been so dry lately.  It would take a helluva lot of rain to set off a flash flood. It's still one more thing to keep an eye on, though.

There will probably be several rounds of showers and storms this afternoon and tonight affecting different parts of the state at different times.  Storms will probably start to ramp up in New York State by early afternoon and spread eastward into Vermont.

Everybody will get rain, but there will be winners and losers. Some places will get a nice, needed soaking and a few places will get a pathetic light showering. It's a crap shoot that's impossible to predict in advance. I'm rooting for a nice drenching here in dusty St. Albans, Vermont.

All this will leave us with cooler and drier weather on Saturday. A second cold front will pass through Saturday evening. It will turn quite chilly for the opening days of June, as has been advertised for days now.

A few places might not get past 60 degrees for highs Sunday and Monday, which is a far cry from the 90s earlier this week.  Also, if there are clear skies on any of these nights, a few colder spots would be at a risk of frost.  Most of us will be fine, though.

Tornado Watch Much Of New England, Including Southern Vermont

UPDATE 4 p.m. 

As you might have already  heard, the National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for the southern four counties of Vermont, all but northern New Hampshire much of central New York and most of Massachusetts.

That means tornadoes are possible. If you are under this watch, continue doing what you're doing, but just have a reliable source of weather information next to you so you can hear any warnings come through.

If, on the off chance you get a tornado warning, march right down to the basement with your weather radio or weather source and stay put until you get the all clear. If no basement, an interior windowless room will do.

This isn't meant to be alarming. Just a precaution. Most people in the tornado watch area will not get a tornado warning. (A warning means a twister has been spotted or a potential one is on the radar screens).

So far at least, the forecast is playing out as expected. The northern third of Vermont has had some rain, and it's remaining pretty much overcast. And it looks like another batch of steadier rain is moving in, That is helping stabilize the atmosphere and limiting thunderstorms. There might be a strong thunderstorm or two up north coming up, but it won't be as extensive as further south.

Further south, there's a little sun, better dynamics and more shear, which is winds changing in direction and/or speed with height.  That will allow some thunderstorms to spin, especially if any supercells form ahead of the main band of strong storms.

The tornado watch lasts until 10 p.m. tonight, but it might expire in Vermont a little sooner than that as activity shifts to the east late this evening.

By the way, and this is important, if you get a severe thunderstorm warning but not a tornado warning, still take that very seriously. The worst of these thunderstorms will be capable of causing as much straight line wind damage as a tornado would.  And the straight line winds with these storms will be more widespread than any tornadoes, if any twisters form at all.

There will almost definitely be some severe thunderstorms scattered around southern Vermont in the next several hours. Tornado chances are iffier, but as you can tell, still possible.

UPDATE: 11:30 a.m.

The threat of severe storms has been pushed north to encompass most of Vermont.
Rotating supercells are possible in the yellow and orange zones.  There's still
a small risk of brief tornadoes in this area, but the main danger will
be strong damaging wind gusts and microbursts 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has adjusted the severe storm risk in New England further north, and now puts all of Vermont in a zone with at least some risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening.

A warm front with the approaching storm that will cause the rough weather is moving further north than expected, and that is helping push the instability needed for the storms further north.

As earlier forecasts indicated, the greatest risk for severe storms is in southern Vermont.

However, that somewhat higher risk zone has been pushed north to a Middlebury to Bradford line.

South of this line, a few supercell thunderstorms could develop.  They might rotate, which raises the risk, albeit small, of a tornado or two.  Even if no tornadoes form, these scattered supercells, and also a subsequent likely line of storms could cause damaging wind gusts, microbursts and large hail.

A few computer models focus the most dangerous storms in Rutland and Windsor counties, but that certainly remains to be seen. Anyone in Vermont should pay attention to further forecasts and warnings.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There's some real weather whiplash going on this week, as we've gone from snow last Friday and Saturday to a severe thunderstorm risk -  at least for some of us - today.

At least it's warmer, right?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has that risk of severe storms today in a good chunk of the Northeast, especially in the southern two thirds of New York, much of Pennsylvania and New Jersey and much of southern and central New England, including the southern half of Vermont.

Any of these areas could get damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a spin up tornado. Of most concern is  a narrow area encompassing central New York, western Massachusetts, the two southernmost counties of Vermont and the southwestern corner of New Hampshire.

At least that's the way things were looking early this morning in advance of this thing.

A storm with a center that was pretty close to Detroit early this morning will move probably right across far northern Vermont and New Hampshire this afternoon and evening.

That will put especially areas from about Montpelier south into the warm, humid air ahead of the storm. Skies seem like the might partially clear for a time during the early and mid afternoon, perhaps from about Rutland and White River south.

Especially in those areas, some muggy, summerish air will come in ahead of the storm's approaching cold front.

Forecasters are expecting short lines or clusters of thunderstorms to form ahead of this cold front and move east through New York and into central and southern New England this afternoon and evening.

The main threat from today's storms will be strong, damaging straight line winds from some of these storms. Large, damaging hail is also possible, especially in the zone of most concern I mentioned.

It's even possible a few rotating supercell thunderstorms could sprout ahead of the cold front today.  That means there's a small, but certainly non-zero chance of a brief tornado or two in far southern Vermont, western Massachusetts, and especially in central New York and the Hudson Valley from Albany to just north of New York City.

Areas highlighted have a slight, but not zero chance of a brief
tornado or two today, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

There's a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within this particular zone of concern. So you see the threat isn't super high, but it's something to watch.

In any event, any strong to severe thunderstorm can be dangerous. Remember, straight line winds can be a destructive as tornadoes.

If you are in areas today and this evening that are under a threat for severe storms, have a weather radio handy, or some reliable source to receive severe weather warnings.

As we always advise, stay indoors and away from windows during a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. In fact, in the unlikely but possible chance that you fall under a tornado warning, it would probably be best for you to hide in the basement until the danger has passed.

Up in northern Vermont, where I am, things will be calmer than points south. But in the north, there could be some briefly heavy rains in spots, and a few rumbles of thunder from some potential embedded non-severe thunderstorms.

I'm also sure as more data comes in this morning, forecasts for the severe weather risk will be adjusted. So whatever you see here this morning is not absolutely set in stone.

Things will clear out today to give us a pretty nice weekend.  It will be huge contrast to last weekend, when there was snow and strong, gusty cold winds.

Instead, this weekend will feature light winds, a fair amount of sun, though with some clouds, and seasonably mild temperatures.

The only drawback to this weekend's weather will be the lack of wind. Normally, that's fine, but with the warmer weather, black fly season is here with a vengeance, and they are really bad this year.  With no wind to blow them away from us, expect to get attacked visciously by these little buggers if you go outside Saturday and Sunday.

Brutal Cold To Ease Up, But Dry, Chilly Weather Continues; More Southern Tornado Drama

Bowed but unbroken? Daffodils once again sag after a brutally
cold, subfreezing night in St. Albans, Vermont but it still looks
like they have a shot at reviving when it warms up 

It looks like those Vermont daffodils have a shot of surviving after all.

Last night and this morning were certainly very cold for this time of year, but due to I think two factors, the chill didn't go quite as deep as it could have.

The core of the coldest air from Canada several thousand feet overhead was over northern New England during the day Wednesday. That's why, really amazingly for this time of year, temperatures never did get above freezing in much of the Northeast Kingdom, all day.

Although the air overhead remained incredibly chilly for late April, the coldest of the air had moved off to the northeast by late last night and this morning. That helped keep temperatures at the surface a wee bit milder than they would have.

More importantly, the wind kept going all night. It wasn't strong by any means. But to get the coldest possible temperatures on a clear night, you need light winds or no winds to get the best conditions to radiate heat to outer space.

That didn't happen last night. Temperatures did get into the upper teens in the coldest hollows, and most of us stayed in the 20s. Burlington, I think got down to 29 degrees. Montpelier was 25. Neither were record lows, and it was actually a tad warmer this morning than yesterday morning, which was the opposite of forecasts.

Many of the blooms outside our Vermont doors, because they're such early season specimens, will probably survive what we got last night.  Some things probably didn't make it, but overall, we will have spring after all.

Just not right away. Although it will turn "warmer" than yesterday - how could it possibly be any colder? -- temperatures will remain below normal into next week at least.

The good news is below normal ain't what it used to be.  Normal temperatures continue to rise fast this time of year.  Normal highs are in the mid 40s on April Fools Day and around 60 as the month ends.

Coming up over the next week, there will be a couple days here and there that get into the low and mid 50s. That's really not bad, but still a little on the cool side for late April.

HOW DRY I AM?

One thing I've noticed is, despite the rain showers and frequent unseasonable snows this month, it's a bit dry, particularly in northern Vermont. I noticed the gardens, when not frozen, are a bit dusty.

The dry conditions can raise the risk of brush fires this time of year. All that dead vegetation is dry out there. Sure, last year's leaves, weeds, twigs and such get wet whenever it rains or snows, but things dry out fast this time of year.

That's especially true in Aprils like this one in northern Vermont in which each precipitation event doesn't amount to much. It makes it easier to dry things out. It often get dry readily in Vermont anyway this time of year.   Here's why:

First of all, there's no leaves on the trees yet. That means the sun's heat can go down to the forest floor without being shaded by foliage. That allows things to dry out faster.

Also, when trees are leafed out, they add moisture to the air. There's no leaves yet.  If you make the air more humid, it makes it harder for fires to start and spread.

This time of year, pushes of air from Canada are particularly dry. These airmasses from the Great White North are cold, as we know from experience over the past couple of days.

The April sun is strong, though. That causes air pockets to warm and rise. Something has to replace that air that came up from near the surface, so really, really dry air from up above makes its way to the surface. These updrafts and downdrafts can create some erratic wind gusts, even when the overall weather pattern isn't that blustery.

Today will be a classic example. Temperatures will recover this afternoon well into the 40s.  That's still a good ten degrees cooler than normal, but it's better than yesterday, for sure. The air mass today is really dry, and will get drier as the afternoon sun mixes the air.

A great measure of how dry it is is by looking at the dewpoint temperature. Here's an example: If the actual air temperature is 45 degrees and the dew point is 25 degrees, that means it would have to cool down to 25 degrees to create fog or at least dew or frost on the grass.

The wider the spread between the actual temperature and the dew point, the drier the air is.  Today, a typical Vermont location will see afternoon temperatures of around 45 degrees with a dewpoint within a few degrees either side of zero.

That's super dry, and can easily create conditions to start brush fires. Luckily, we did have that bit of snow and rain yesterday and the day before, so that wetted things down just a little bit. Plus, although winds today might be erratic, they won't be particularly strong. That leaves us with some fire danger today, but not an extreme one.   The driest area seems to be the Champlain Valley.

So please, no outdoor burning today, or any other similarly dry days.  It can easily get out of hand and you don't want that.

It might turn a little wetter as we head into the weekend and next week, especially in southern Vermont, so that might help.

SOUTHERN TORNADO DRAMA

Screen shot of video by storm chaser Pecos Hank as a tornado rips through
the town of Madill, Oklahoma Wednesday.

More tornadoes ripped through the South again yesteraday and overnight.  Reports are that five people have died - three in Texas and two in Oklahoma.

A remarkable string of four tornadic supercell arranged themselves in a tight north to south line in southern Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening, producing some photogenic, but unfortunately destructive tornadoes.  

Click on this link to watch a very wild video by Pecos Hank as he sat pretty much in a tornado that rapidly developed in Madill, Oklahoma. You'll see it wrecking a steel wire plant there. The tornado then moves on, leaving wreckage and a beautiful, sunny late afternoon. (It was even sunny from Pecos Hank's position watching the tornado. Go figure.

An even more remarkable tornadic supercell formed near Austin, Texas and traveled nearly 450 miles to the Louisiana-Mississippi border Wednesday afternoon and evening. That is an incredibly long lasting, durable supercell, especially considering it kept dropping tornadoes along the way.

The worst one was in Unalaska, well north of Houston, where the supercell dropped a powerful tornado that led to three deaths and widespread destruction in town, according to television station KPRC in Houston.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes continued overnight and into this morning in parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

Another round of storms and possible tornadoes are in the forecast for later today, especially in the southern halves of Alabama and Georgia.

Snow, Record Cold, Hail, Storms, Twisters: We Just Can't Have Nice Things

Springtime killed. Amid a dusting of snow, the sagging blooms and
the dark color leaves on these daffodils in my yard indicate
they might have been destroyed by the frigid temperatures. Photo was
taken while temperatures were still well below freezing. The
damage will probably be more apparent later. 

In the grand scheme of things, the losses and potential losses I found outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont this morning were pretty small.

But they were still disheartening.

I kind of expected it, but it was a shame to see the daffodils and other plants and flowers that had been coming up likely ruined by the intense cold from last night.

If any of them survived, they won't tonight as temperatures are likely to be in even colder tonight. I'll know at the end of the week what, if anything, survived. I have a feeling I won't even get to enjoy lilacs this year. Those buds could be damaged, too.  

Who knows? Maybe most of the plants will recover.  But I'm not optimistic at this point.

Amid everything that has been going on, it was nice to get some peace in my gardens from the early season blooms. Now those are gone, at least for now. So that was taken from me.  Everything had been coming up, so I don't know what kind of flowers and blooms I get later in the spring or summer.

Well, there's always next year.

As if to add insult to injury, as I started to write this, snow began to briefly fall pretty heavily. The sickening winter sound of a snow plow scraping by bothered me, too. There's not much snow, but it's blowing around and making the roads slick. It's not the usual April wet snow. It's powdery. Roads are frozen. Like January. Ugh.

At last check it was 18 degrees up in Saranac Lake, New York. The "warmest" parts of Vermont were in the upper 20s early this morning.  Snow covered the ground across most of northern Vermont, and I'm sure gardeners statewide found the same depressing sight out their doors that I did this morning.

Tonight, Vermont is in for record or near record cold. The record low tomorrow morning in Burlington is 23 degrees and in Montpelier it's 21 degrees. Those records are in jeopardy. Some areas of the Northeast Kingdom will probably be in the mid-teens tonight. A few places up there might not even get above freezing today.

Again, my "suffering" isn't that at all. Just a little disappointment. But you can't help but think the weather has gotten pretty mean-spirited.

I can't attribute today's weather to climate change.  It could be random, and you really can't take one weather event in one little spot on the globe and point at climate change.

However,  in a perverse way, it's consistent with it. We've been warned by scientist - as I recall since the late 1980s at least - we were heading toward a future that was generally warmer, but with a higher risk of sharp day to day jolts in temperatures and weather conditions. We were warned of warmer temperatures interrupted by sharp, damaging cold spells. That future is here.

Like what has been happening in lots of places, increasingly in recent years, things get going early in the spring due to oddly warm temperatures. Then an old fashioned quick freeze comes and ruins everything.

For me this year, it was just a bummer. For many agricultural interests in much of the eastern United States, this will be a disaster at a time they really don't need anothe disaster.

Freeze warnings are up for a broad area of the Middle Atlantic States, with temperatures likely to reach the 20s as far south as Virginia. Orchards and early crops in this region are in big trouble.

SEVERE STORMS

Gigantic hailstones came down overnight near
Devol, Oklahoma. Photo via Twitter/KOCO

And, as I've mentioned practically every day this month, severe storms keep rolling on.  Here's the latest update.

Those severe storms in the Middle Atlantic States certainly materialized.  Though tornadoes were not expected, one might have hit Toms River, on the Jersey shore. There's a lot of damage to trees and some houses, there, so the weather folks will probably investigate that today.

There was a tornado warning at one point for pretty intense rotation on the Bronx/Yonkers border yesterday afternoon, ut I don't know if anything actually touched down.

Yesterday, overnight and this morning, large hail, sometimes baseball sized, pelted parts of Oklahoma.

Tornadoes are in the forecast today for a broad area centered on where Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana meet. The tornado threat will spread into much of the rest of the Southeast tomorrow.

Back up here in Vermont, we're not expecting any severe weather. The frigid weather is enough, thank you. Although it will warm up somewhat starting tomorrow afternoon, it looks like it's going to stay colder than normal into early May.

If any of our garden plants can grow back, they'll have to wait awhile.

The Severe Weather Train Rolls On In The United States.

A tornado touched down near Sanford, Florida Monday. 

Right on schedule, around 11 a.m. this Tuesday morning, the wind abruptly began to howl outside my windows in St. Albans, Vermont.  Winds appeared to be gusting to over 40 mph, and I've already seen a few twigs and small branches come down, as of 11:30 a.m.

The strongest winds here won't last much longer, and the pale in comparison to some of the violent weather parts of the nation have seen this spring, as I've noted a few times before.

Vermont is getting hit by a dynamic, fast moving storm system coming in from the west. The worst of the trouble with this storm, though, will go by to the south for the rest of the day.

A pretty good squall line was in the beginning stages of forming in central New York and Pennsylvania late this morning, and it will sweep east, scattering a few pockests of damaging wind with thunderstorms from southern New England down to the Washington DC area.

This outbreak of bad weather won't be nearly as bad as what's been going on in the south, but you will hear news today of fallen trees, power outages and a few trees through house roofs and crushing cars today from Connecticut and Massachusetts to Virginia.

It's a continuation on a really active weather pattern this spring that has featured a fast flow of air across the United States jam packed with a variety of storms.  As we well know, these storms have left a series of snowstorms, floods and especially tornadoes behind.

The one affecting the Northeast today is unlikely to produce any tornadoes. But it is ushering in a blast of unseasonable cold air from Canada that will probably do damage in its own right. Freeze warnings are up for much of the Middle Atlantic States and areas in and around Ohio tomorrow night.

A lot of orchards are already blooming in that area - prematurely due to warmer than normal winter and early spring weather - so this could cause a lot of damage.

Up here in Vermont, things aren't that far along, so there won't be widespread crop damage, but as I noted yesterday, you might lose some of your daffodil and forsythia blooms.

THEN, MORE SEVERE

The next severe weather threat is already getting going near Colorado. Today, the first round of this system will likely create a few spots with gigantic hailstones in and near Oklahoma today.  A few towns might get some baseball sized hail, which really stings.

The storm will push east, and cause a risk of some severe storms and a couple tornadoes in eastern Texas and the southern Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, like the trend line we've seen so many times this year, the threat of severe storms and tornadoes on Thursday now appears to be greater than originally expected in parts of the Southeast.

The parent storm system looks like it will move a little more slowly than originally forecast, allowing more very humid air to infiltrate the Southeast than earlier thought. It also will allow the parent storm to strengthen more before moving off the East Coast.  Together, that helps increase the tornado threat, especially in Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida, as it looks now.

There's even a chance, once again - sigh - of some long tracked, strong tornadoes down there.

They don't catch a break, do they? Just yesterday, some dramatic looking tornadoes crossed Florida freeways, damaging buildings and trees on their way through, but thankfully causing no serious injuries and deaths.

Unfortunately, the strong Mississippi tornado I mentioned yesterday did kill one person. It was another EF-4, the second strongest catagory you can get, within a 30 mile radius with a week.  It's rare for the United States to get much more thank ten EF-4's per year, so having that many within a small area in just a week is something else.

Severe storm researcher Tony Lyza (@tlyazawx on Twitter) posted on that social media platform that shows at least 14 EF-2 or stronger have hit a narrow, roughly 150-mile wide corridor of Mississippi beween Interstates 10 and 20 since mid-December. That's an incredible density of relatively strong tornadoes for such a small area.  So yes, this is odd!

It still looks like severe weather might temporarily settle down for a time until early May, but that's not guaranteed. Just remember that May is typically the most active and dangerous month for tornadoes in the United States.

Video: Tornado crosses Interstate 75 near Marion Florida Monday:


Turn up the sound on this one. A tornadic supercell was passing near the viewers. That rumbling was either a tornado going by or constant thunder from the incredible amount of lightning you see in the video, or both.  I bet the people shooting the video are glad the storm didn't hit them full on:

Wintry Blast Heading To New England; Southern Tornadoes

Daffodil blooming in my St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
Let's hope this little fella survives temperatures in the low to
mid 20s Wednesday night! 

As expected tornadoes and severe weather rocked the South yesterday, though thankfully this one wasn't as bad as the outbreak a week earlier.

There were several tornadoes, and reports of one particularly large, strong one in Mississippi.

It appears that tornado mostly went through rural and pretty unpopulated areas, so not too many houses got wrecked this time. And thankfully, so far, no deaths have been reported.

It looks like there will be one more threat of some severe weather in the South, midweek, and then there will be a brief break lasting several days, in which there will be relatively few reports of severe weather and tornadoes.  At least that's the way it looks at the moment.

Up here in Vermont, we don't expect anything dramatic like tornadoes, of course. But after an early spring, winter still wants to regain control.  Watch out for wind gusts, and then a hard freeze.

We have another system coming in similar to what we've seen a few times this month already: A very dynamic, energetic disturbance will come in from the west and northwest.  Like the previous systems, recipitation amounts won't be overwhelming at all. Still,  you'll notice the weather on Tuesday.

Out ahead of the storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will blow Tuesday morning, especiall in the Champlain Valley, where winds could go over 40 mph at times.

Crocuses like these blooming in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens
look fragile, but they're pretty tough. We'll see how well they do in
a really hard freeze expected Wednesday night. 

A band of showers, and maybe some thunderstorms will accompany the cold front, which at this point  looks like it will enter western Vermont in the early afternoon and then sweep east.

The front might be energetic enough to set off a few thunderstorms, especially in southern Vermont.  NOAA's Storm Prediction  Center has much of the Northeast in a marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms and that zone extends into the southern half of Vermont.

There might be a few isolated thunderstorms that manage to create damaging wind gusts. In Vermont, if this happens at all, the damaging gusts will be few and far between.

The real story will be the intense cold behind the cold front, at least by April standards. After snow showers dust a few areas Tuesday night, high temperatures Wednesday will stay in the 30s in many northern areas, with a stiff northwest wind. The Champlain Valley and southern Vermont could squeak into the low 40s, but that's a far cry from the mid and upper 50s that are normal for this time of year.

Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to lose some of the early blooms that are out there right now.  Temperatures Wednesday night will bottom out between 15 and 25 degrees, with the teens up in the mountains and colder hollows.

Early flowers like daffodils and crocuses are pretty tough, but early varieties that are blooming now might not fare that well in that level of cold.  The plants themselves will be fine, but the some of the blooming daffodils and other flowers could wilt and die in those temperatures.

It depends upon how hardy yours are, but the prospect of even losing a few is a bit depressing.

Temperatures will kind of, sort of warm up later in the week and into the weekend, but still remain below normal, unfortunately.

No, All These Tornado Outbreaks In The South Are Not Normal

A tornado safety closet that a family huddled in is the only thing
left of a home swept away by a tornado last week in Mississippi.
The family survived. More dangerous tornadoes are expected
today in the same region.

Another outbreak of tornadoes appears likely in the Deep South today, continuing a terrible winter and spring down there of heartbreaking twisters, severe storms and repeated, devastating flooding, all amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Today looks especially bad across the northern half of Louisiana and the southern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area on level 4 of 5 in terms of risk level today.  So it's pretty serious.

Already, as of mid-morning, a tornado watch was up for eastern Texas and western Louisiana, including the Houston metro area. Some straight line wind and hail damage had already been reported in parts of the South as of 10 a.m. It will get worse as we go through the day.

Many of these areas are just coming off a terrible tornado outbreak exactly a week ago, so this is definitely bad news.

A few tornadoes today in this region might once again be especially strong, especially if supercell thunderstorms get going without interference from larger clusters of thunderstorms moving in from the west.

Even that larger cluster of storms from the west wil cause trouble with their own batch of tornadoes, strong winds, hail and flooding rains.

We obviously won't completely know until tomorrow how many tornadoes will form, how big they will be and whether they hit any heavily populated areas. But once again, people in the Deep South are hunkering down and praying the tornadoes miss their houses.

We are heading into the peak of tornado seasons and April tornadoes are rather normal, especially in the southeastern quarter of the United States.  Yes, tornadoes are normal, but the number of them this year, and the deaths they are causing, is anything but normal.

It turns out the tornado outbreak last Sunday and Monday yielded 132 twisters, which is a huge number for two days of severe weather.  Preliminary research indicates this is tied for the fifth-most numher of tornadoes in a two day outbreak on record in the United States.

The tie is with an April 15-16, 2011 southeastern United States outbreak. The record biggest outbreak for two days was 271 on April 26-27, 2011. So you can see 2011 was the benchmark for a horrendous tornado season, and one we don't want to repeat.

In addition to the tornado risk, flooding is a big concern in the Deep South, as it has been frequently for months now. Potentially life threatening areas of flash flooding are expected today in the same areas with the greatest tornado risk.

Not good.

The weather pattern will remain bad in the South in the upcoming week or more. Severe weather threats look like they will ramp up again Wednesday, then after, that, probably next weekend.

Want Hot Weather? Go To Miami. It's Extreme Down There

I definitely complained about this April snow shower in St. Albans,
Vermont on Friday. Maybe I should have been counting my blessings,
given the trouble and potential trouble record warm air
and water is creating in and near Florida, Cuba and
the Gulf of Mexico 

As I've been mentioning the past few days, Ma Nature has hit the pause button on spring in many areas over the past few days.

A snowstorms swept across the nation, originating in Colorado and going all the way to southern and central New England this morning. Freeze warnings were up yet again in much of the nations middle.

Here in Vermont, temperatures are expected to stay mostly below normal for the next week or so.  It snowed at my St. Albans, Vermont home yesterday for the third day in a row.

Want an antidote to the chill? Head to southern Florida. Well, virtually, anyway, I don't recommend unnecessary travel in this coronavirus pandemic.

Those cold fronts that have been sweeping through the eastern two thirds of the nation keep getting hung up in northern Florida, and never creeping any more south than that.  The result is hot times, really hot times, in places like Miami.

Miami isn't exactly an ice box to start with. The  normal high temperature in Miami this time of year is in the low 80s, with a normal ovenight temperature in the upper 60s.  That's what we would consider a stuffy, rather uncomfortably humid July day here in Vermont.

But to Miamians, normal weather this time of year really isn't that bad. What's been going on so far this month is bad, by their standards.

Six days so far this month have topped 90 degrees. Nights have been brutal. Only one night so far this month got below 70 degrees, and nine days had "low" temperatures of 75 degrees or more. April as a whole is running about seven degrees warmer than normal this  month. This after a March that was 4.6 degrees on the hot side and featured three days up in the 90s.

Climate researcher Brian McNoldy said the first of April was the warmest on record by a full two degrees, and the area is experiencing weather this month more typical of early June. McNoldy said via Twitter that the four consecutive nights recently that stayed at 78 above in Miami broke the record for earliest occurence of that happening by two weeks. "The climate system is broken," he opined.

Well, there's lots of evidence around the globe for that idea, despite the recent relatively brief spell of cool weather well north of Florida.

Miami has gotten no relief from the heat in recent years. In records dating back to 1896, there is a three-way tie for hottest year on record: 2015, 2017 and 2019.  Six of the top 10 hottest years there have been in the past decade.

People in Miami traditionally look forward to winter cold fronts that sweep through the state and off the coast toward Cuba. That's happening with less and less frequency.  For instance this past winter, there was only one brief spell of chilly weather in Miami - back in mid-January when temperatures fell to near 40 degrees. That's cold for South Florida, but certainly not record breaking.

Speaking of Cuba, that nation has been sharing in the extreme heat  On April 13, Cuba reported its hottest temperature on record for the whole nation. It was 102.74 degrees in Veguitas.  That broke the national record set just last year, reports Radio Havana Cuba.

Surrounding water has warmed up a lot, which has possible implications for the weeks and months ahead. The whole Gulf Coast of the United States, and presumably much of the Gulf of Mexico itself, are just coming off the warmest winter on record, or at least one of the warmest on record.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are well above normal as a result.  I can't help but wonder if those warm waters are contributing to the terrible start to the tornado season in the South.

The main reasons for these severe storms has been a series of storms coming across the nation from California to the East Coast.  Each of those storms pulls toasty, humid air northward from the Gulf, which is one critical ingredient for tornado formation.

I can't help but wonder if the air is even warmer, even more humid than it would otherwise be if Gulf of Mexico temperatures were closer to normal.  The warmer and more humid the air, the more juice for severe storms and flooding rains.

Oh, and by the way, more severe storms, flooding and possible tornadoes are expected this Sunday in the Gulf Coast States.

If the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast of the United States remains warmer than normal, as it is now, that could also add more fuel to the fire for hurricanes later this summer and autumn.

It's even possible a tropical or subtropical system or two could form in this unusually warm Gulf of Mexico before the "official" start of hurricane season on June 1.  Tropical systems need nice hot water to form, and the Gulf has plenty of that. It all depends on whether other overall weather patterns can help trigger early tropical systems, and it's too early now to figure that one out.

With all this warm air and water trouble in the South, maybe I shouldn't be complaining about our April Vermont snow showers so much.

Rinse And Repeat: Wintry Threats Continue North, Severe Weather South

A snow shower is seen dumping a quick burst of snow west
of St. Albans, Vermont last evening. Similar conditions are
expected today in Vermont 

As if there isn't enough out there to keep most of us unhappy, the weather pattern is also stuck in a way that gives many of us little to cheer about.

A winter storm is creating a narrow stripe of rather heavy snow from Wyoming to Illinois, and that stripe of snow will eventually extend all the way to southern and central New England by Friday night and Saturday morning.  

Meanwhile, in the South, another severe weather and tornado risk looks like it will appear Sunday, and chnces are high that there will be couple more severe weather threats afrer that in the same region after that.

Up here in Vermont, there was still a dusting of snow on the ground in my yard in St. Albans from last evening and it was definitely cold out, with frost adding more winter to that bit of snow.]

That evening snow was caused by a reinforcing shot of cold air from Canada.  The band of snow was in far southern Vermont and northwestern Massachusetts this morning, causing slick roads in a few spots down there

Today in Vermont will look a lot like yesterday, especially in the northern half of the state. We'll have what I call self-destructing sunshine this morning. That sun will warm the atmosphere, but there's a pool of very cold air aloft.

The warm sun will cause updrafts, causing clouds to form and pile up, obscuring the sun for the most part. Between remaining breaks of sun this afternoon and early evening, those clouds will produce another round of snow showers.

Luckily, the air near the Earth's surface is dry, so much of the snow will evaporate on the way down. Still, many of those snow showers will have enough oomph to give many of us another dusting of snow. Nothing consequential, but also nothing you want to see this time of year.

Meanwhile, a pretty compact but vigorous storm is starting to zip west to east across the middle of the country,  laying down that stripe of snow in the Midwest. Southern Iowa not far from the Missouri border, is expected up to a foot of snow out of this.

That's an awful lot for that area of the nation for mid-April.

The storm will weaken a little, temporarily, but still have enough power to dump a few inches of snow Friday night and early Saturday in southern and central New England away from the coast.

In Vermont, up to three or four inches of snow could pile up Friday night in the mountains east of Bennington.  Further north toward Rutland, at this point it looks like a dusting to an inch, with little or nothing further north

After a brief sorta, kinda warmup on Sunday, it'll go back down to below normal temperatures in New England next week. The Midwest will warm up, but nope, not us!

SOUTHERN STORMS

The South is still reeling from those tornadoes and severe storms Sunday and Monday.  According to the National Weather Service eastern region, a total of 105 tornadoes from April 12-13 have been confired.

Tornadoes touched down in ten states, and if you added up the miles each one traveled, you'd get a total of 771.86 miles. If you combined all those tornadoes into one tornado track, it would extend from about Louisville, Kentucky to Burlington, Vermont.

The weekend tornadoes killed perhaps 30 people, and more than 60 Americans have lost their lives to tornadoes so far this year. If nobody else dies in a tornado this year, (which would be nice) this would still be the deadliest tornado year since 2012, notes the Weather Channel.

There might well be more tornadoes, severe storms and flooding on the way to the South this Sunday.  The expected rough weather won't be as extreme, or cover as big an area as last weekend, but people from Texas to Georgia better watch it on Sunday,  and toward the east on Monday.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is already forecasting a few tornadoes and severe storms for that tie period.

The weather pattern is favoring pretty strong storms riding east from California through the South or south-central United States.  Two more storms are forecast to take relatively similar paths next week, which could again threaten the South with more tornadoes.

Storm Update: Today Still Looks Dangerous South; East Coast Danger Monday

Opening salvo: Huge hail in Del Rio,
Texas Saturday.  Tornadoes, high winds,
floods, etc are risks in the South
and East today and Monday. 

We're getting into the thick of the storm in the Deep South this morning and it will only get worse as the day wears on.

As expected, it started in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas yesterday, mostly with scattered reports of huge hail.  One supercell crossed the border from Mexico into Del Rio, Texas, throwing hail almost the size of grapefruit  down on that city last night. Baseball sized hail blasted a few towns in Kansas.

Tornado warnings were already flying this morning in northeastern Texas. This is the beginning of several waves of thunderstorms going across the Deep South this morning.

All of these storms will be dangerous, but forecasters are in particular watching central and southern Mississippi early this afternoon. There, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, supercells are expected to develop, the move across Alabama later in the afternoon and Georgia toward evening.

These are the storms that are most likely to set off strong, especially dangerous long lasting tornadoes. It's not certain whether these strong tornadoes will actually happen. But there is that risk.

Amid all this,  torrential rains and flooding are a very good bet across much of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There's going to be a lot of damage and heartache in the South this Easter Sunday, unfortunately.

It's now becoming apparent Monday won't be that much better. The rough weather will have ended in the Deep South, but there will be trouble along the entire East Coast from Maine to Florida.

Severe thunderstorms are likely with a risk of tornadoes, will run from Pennsylvania to Florida, with the highest risk of stronger, longer lasting twisters in Virginia and the Carolinas, along with southeastern Georgia.  There's a chance that some of the Carolina tornadoes could be as bad, or nearly as bad as the ones expected in the Deep South today.

Even in pretty big severe weather outbreaks like this, most people in the affected zone will come out of this fine with little or no property damage. But people need to be weather aware in these zones, so if they are unlucky enough to be in the target of a severe storm or tornado, they can take cover.

In New England, there will be few if any severe thunderstorms, but strong, damaging winds will come through. Wind gusts could easily reach 70 mph in the New York City metro area and in the southern half of New England.

Further west, gusts in the 70 mph range are also expected in western New York. These kinds of winds will bring down lots of trees and power lines in heavily populated areas.  There's going to be a lot of power outages, and probably more than a few houses and buildings smushed by falling trees.

Southwest winds will be so strong that Lake Erie will tilt, with water piling up on the northeast corner of the lake near Buffalo.  Water levels will fall as much as seven feet on the western end of the lake, and rise by at least five feet near Buffalo. Battering waves will make things worse.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Vermont will be a relative island of calm amid all this but that doesn't mean we'll avoid trouble. While the highest winds will probably go by to our west and east, we will still get strong gusty winds.

Ahead of the powerful storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will strike especially the Champlain Valley. We'll all get a pretty good slug of rain, with still a risk of some flooding up in the Northeast Kingdom.

When the cold front sweeps through in the afternoon, we'll get heavier, but relatively brief downpours, with maybe some scattered thunderstorms embedded.

The worst winds will come in right after the cold front. In Vermont, many places will have winds gusting to near 50 mph.  That's enough to topple some trees, especially since the soil is wet and loose this time of year, and with all the rain expected Monday. Branches and power lines could go, too, so be ready for that!

Things will calm down somewhat by Tuesday. It'll still be kind of windy on Tuesday, but not gusty enough to cause more problems.

Here's a video of the hail in Del Rio, Texas. I like the comment from someone in the video, "Insurance adjusters, beware." Indeed!

Tornado And Severe Weather Threat Still Big Risk In South

The question of the weekend in the Deep South is where there
be more of these types of highly visible but also highly
destructive tornadoes, or.....

Meteorologists around the nation, but especially in the Deep South are still watching what could be a terrible severe weather outbreak unfold this weekend.

Not to be glib in a situation like this, but it's an April classic, at least as the overall weather set up is.

A strong - and strengthening storm will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday.  There's going to be another snowstorm on its northwest flank from the central Plains up into Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

Strong, destructive winds and shoreline flooding are forecast for most of the Great Lakes.

But the real, most worrisome situation is the threat for tornadoes, some maybe long lasting and strong, especially Sunday. As readers of this blog thingy know, forecasters have been watching this situation for days now, and there are no signs so far that anybody can rest easy.

The first hint of trouble came Friday with a swarm of supercell thunderstorms in western Texas that produced some gigantic hail stones, as loud and enthusiastic storm chaser Reed Timmer discovered.

The trouble will begin to really blossom today. as most of Texas and a large chunk of Oklahoma fall under a severe storm threat. Tornadoes and destructive straight line winds are real threats today, but large hail is once again the predominant hazard today and tonight in this area.

The Sunday threat covers a huge area from eastern Texas to the Carolinas and from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio River.  The main bullseye for the worst of it continues to look like it will be Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, at least as things stand now.

The question is not whether severe weather develops, it's what form it will take. The worst way it could develop if a bunch of rotating supercells form, with each one being on its own, not part of any squall lines.

If that happens, you get these wide, long lasting and intense tornadoes that cause the most extreme damage, and are the most life-threatening since they are so strong.

....or something like this not quite as strong, but still dangerous
and also hard to see coming rain-wrapped spinup tornadoes 

Things could instead develop into messy lines and cluster of thunderstorms. That's still really bad, because there would be embedded tornadoes and very serious straight line winds.

But most of the time, the tornadoes in this scenario, while still extremely dangerous, are not the high end super bad ones you get with those more isolated supercells I talked about above.

The tornadoes in these "messy" clusters have their own hazard, however. These are usually hidden within curtains of rain. Human nature sometimes prompts people to look for the tornado that's threatening them before taking shelter. Usually, you can't see this type of tornado coming.

Though there are guesses, I don't think anyone really knows how this will develop until it gets going. There will probably be those messy lines and clusters of storms, and discreet, big tornado ones,  but nobody is sure which style will predominate.

Some of the same areas most at risk for tornadoes and damaging winds also have a substantial flood risk.  At last check, most of Tenneessee and the northern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia in particular are under the gun for heavy downpours and flash floods on Sunday.

It's already been a tremendously wet year in these areas and the expected three to six inches of rain Sunday and Sunday night will only trigger more flooding.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Here in Vermont, there will certainly be no tornadoes, but the storm will give us a few problems, albeit minor compared to what will go on in the South.

The storm will bring a quick slug of fairly heavy rain through on Monday. The National Weather Service is foreasting perhaps a half inch to an inch of rain.

That doesn't make me too frightened about any flooding, but we'll have to watch the Northeast Kingdom.  The mid elevations and mountains got quite a bit of snow from that last storm Thursday night and Friday. Averill, way up in the northeast corner of the state, got a foot of snow out of that one.

The lingering snow, and snow from previous storms on the mountains in the Northeast Kingdom, will do a lot of melting amid the rains coming up Monday, so there is the risk of some high water. They'll need to watch the flood prone Passumpsic River for this one.

The big story in and near Vermont with this one will be the wind. There will be gusts over 40 mph ahead of the cold front Monday morning and early afternoon.  Once the cold front passes, the winds will really crank, especially in northern New York, the northern Champlain Valley, and I think eastern slopes of the Green Mountains.

Winds could easily be strong enough to damage trees and power lines Monday, so we should keep that in mind.