Historic Northern Plains Snowstorm? And Big Coastal New England Storm

Weather map in late October, 1991, showing the massive blizzard
in the Midwest and the "Perfect Storm" off the New England coast.

The weather maps at the end of October, 1991 were among the most extreme in history.

In the middle of the nation, a historic, intense blizzard was under way, with three feet of snow in Duluth, Minnesota and 45 inches in Superior, Minnesota.

The storm was accompanied by very strong winds, making this among the worst blizzards on record for any season. Record, subzero cold followed the storm.

Meanwhile, in coastal New England, the famous "Perfect Storm" was raging. That's the storm made famous by the Sebastian Junger book and subsequent film.  It cause immense coastal damage from southeastern Canada, through coastal New England down into the Middle Atlantic States.

The two storms combined are one of the most memorable weather events in United States history.

History is about to repeat itself in a miniature fashion.  My intent is not to scare anyone, because what's coming up later this week is by no means as extreme and dangerous as the 1991 event. But still, I'm struck by how similar the weather maps of 1991 are to the expected weather maps of later this week.

Once again, a big snowstorm is expected to hit the northern Plains. And, a rather powerful coastal storm has the potential to cause some damage in coastal New England.  I mentioned the other day this might happen, and it appears to be coming to fruition.

NORTHERN PLAINS

While not as bad as 1991, the expected storms will be serious.  The exact location of the heaviest snow in the upper Midwest is yet to be determined, but toward the end of the week, parts of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota could see a foot or more of snow. Perhaps two feet. And, like in 1991, there will be strong winds.

The expected weather map for this coming Friday is eerily
similar to October, 1991.  Though not as bad as 1991,
another big snowstorm in the northern Plains and coastal
wind and waves will be a problem in the Northeast. 

Given how early in the season this snow is, there's going to be a lot of livestock losses and crop losses, since not everything is harvested yet.

Winter storm watches and warnings are already in effect in a large area through Montana, Wyoming, much of the Dakotas and northwestern Nebraska. Snow could fall as far south as Kansas.

The temperature in several cities will fall dramatically. It's forecast to be sunny and 75 degrees in Rapid City, South Dakota today, and by tomorrow night it will be in the mid-20s with blizzard like conditions.

The high temperature in Denver Tuesday is forecast to be close to 80. The high temperature there Wednesday will barely crack the freezing mark.

NEW ENGLAND 

Like the Midwest snowstorm, the exact track and position of upcoming storm off the East Coast is still full of question marks. The closer it comes to the coast, the worst things will be.

Coastal erosion and minor splashover flooding is almost guaranteed. But if the storm were to come closer than expected, the coastal flooding would be worse. Gales and heavy rain would sweep southern New England.

Again, this won't come close to being a repeat of the Perfect Storm, but it is something to take seriouis.

This storm probably won't affect Vermont much, maybe throwing some clouds our way Wednesday night and Thursday.  At this point, any rain from this would stay in southern and eastern Vermont.

Yes, Vermont Has Had Much Worse Weather In May Than This Year

It's true that this May in Vermont has been cool, damp, cloudy and
rainy, but the weather has definitely been worse in other Vermont Mays

After yet another round of rain Friday morning, the sun came out in Vermont's Champlain Valley during the afternoon. The temperature in Burlington sneaked up to 77 degrees, the warmest reading so far this year.

The nice weather was welcome, as lots of people have been grumbling about the cool, damp, cloudy nature of May, 2019.

I've had a few people ask if this is the worst May for weather in memory. I can't speak for the rest of the cloudy Northeast, but we've had much, much, MUCH worse weather in Vermont this time of year.

I've got lots of examples. We run to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book, which tells plenty of tales of May misery.

On May 15, 1834, for instance. snow fell at a rate of one inch every 10 minutes for two hours in Newbury, Vermont, reaching a depth of three feet(!!) In low elevation Rutland, a foot of snow accumulated.

May, 1966 was probably the worst modern May on record. On May 3 that year, it reached 24 degrees in Burlington, which is still the coldest May temperature on record in the Queen City. It was 18 degrees that morning in Bloomfield and Chelsea.

Then, on May 8-10, 1966, Vermont had three consecutive days of snow. It accumulated to 3.5 inches in Burlington, 5.2 inches in Newport and 11 inches in Peru, Vermont.

My subjective vote for the worst May weather in my lifetime was in 1997. It wasn't the coldest May on record, but it was quite chilly, and constantly cloudy. Snowflakes made it all the way down into the Champlain Valley on May 7. It was 27 degrees on May 5, so anything that was trying to grow early got zapped by frost.

Under the persistent overcast, the temperature never made it above 70 degrees until May 28 in 1997, and the trees didn't leaf out until the end of the month. Ugh.

The first half of May, 1996 was at least as bad, with a general snowfall hitting most of the state, including the Champlain Valley on May 12 that year. Even Burlington got 0.3 inches of snow, which I think is the last time measureable snow fell in Burlington during May. (The weather got much better during the second half of May, 1996.)

This May surely won't be among the wettest on record, even as rainfall has been running above average. It does seem as though most recent Mays have been wet. The soggiest Mays on record in Burlington are 2013 (8.74 inches); 2011 (8.67 inches) and May 2006 (7.10 inches).  Those three wet Mays were not chilly, however. They were all warmer than average.

Looking ahead, the weather pattern looks like it will stay active, but maybe not as persistently overcast as it has been. Temperatures will bounce around a fair amount, but overall it won't be too far from average for this time of year.

Vermont Last Year: Tons of Snow. This Year, Not So Much

A year ago Sunday, about a foot and a half of heavy, wet snow buried my yard in St. Albans, Vermont.

Many of my shrubs were smushed under the weight of the cement-like slush.

Across much of Vermont, trees collaped across power lines, causing electrical outages that in some cases lasted for a week. (Somehow, the power stayed on at my house.)

This year, not so much as one snow flake has descended on my property in St. Albans, or almost everywhere in Vermont, for that matter during December

December could well be on pace to be the warmest on record, or close to it.

It hasn't been below freezing in at least five days, during a time of year when readings can easily go below zero, and normal lows are in the upper teens.

The grass in my yard is still partly green. I never did cut back my perennial cardinal flowers in early November, because they were still green. Now, they're actually rallying. I saw a couple dandelions blooming.

The photos in this post were taken in the same spot on my back yard exactly one year apart. Last year, on December 13 with the snow, this year with spring in December.

As you can see in the snow picture, the lilac bush on the left was smushed down to the ground by the heavy snow, but made a nice recovery. In this year's photo, there are still hints of greeen in the grass.

Things can reverse themselves abruptly, though. That 18 inches of snow on the ground last year in mid-December melted down in a thaw, and by the day after Christmas, there was no snow on the ground.

Thirteen days after I took the snow photograph, I raked that very area of lawn because I hadn't gotten to it during the fall. It was 50 degrees December 26 last year, and I found a bit of fresh lettuce in the garden in the background.

Who knows if this year will bring 18 inches of snow the day after Christmas? Current long range projections suggest continued warmth, but you never know. The other shoe could drop and winter could blast its way in at any moment.