Good Weather News: Recent Nationwide Tornado Shortage

Shelf cloud from a severe thunderstorm over Colchester, Vermont
in June, 2017. There are some occasional storm chances
in Vermont over the next week or two, starting this evening. 

Back in April, amid some deadly tornado outbreaks in the United States, I was warning that perhaps the worst was yet to come, given that May and June are the peak tornado months in the nation.

Turns out any forecast of a bunch of tornadoes was a thankful bust. Tornado activity in the U.S. in May and June was at or near record lows.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center tweeted that so far, they've only counted 50 tornadoes in June, the lowest number since 1952.

A few more tornadoes might be confirmed from June after more investigations, but the number will almost certainly be at a record low.

Only six tornado watches were issued in the U.S. during June, the least on record,  besting eight watches, the previous record low set just last year.  For May and June combined, there were only 16 tornado watches, easily breaking the record for least number of such alerts during the two months. The old record was 28 such watches in 2018.

Interestingly, one of tornado watches in May included parts of Vermont, an area we all know is decidedly not tornado alley. No tornado is known to have touched down in Vermont so far this year.

Overall, there were 4,044 reports of severe weather - thunderstorm winds, hail and tornadoes - in June, which is somewhat below the average of 4,940 for the month, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

We're past the peak of tornado season for sure, but of course tornadoes and severe weather can and do still occur in July and beyond.

If you for some reason you are a Vermonter who like severe thunderstorms, there's a very slight chance you'll be in luck later today.

A squirt of rather hot, humid air is making its way into the state today, which should prompt high temperatures in the 80s to locally around 90 degrees.

Meanwhile, a weak cold front is pressing south and southeastward from Quebec and there's a relatively fast flow of air developing overhead, coming down from the northwest.  This has the potential to help produce scattered thunderstorms, a couple of which might have strong to damaging gusty winds.

This is most likely in northern Vermont, but even there, the chances of any one place being hit by such a severe storm is on the low side. The Storm Prediction Center has northern New England and northern New York in a marginal risk zone for severe storms later today.

Marginal risk is the lowest of five alert levels for severe storms and means that there's a chance of isolated, localized severe weather.

We are getting into an interesting weather pattern that could bring us more rounds of scattered, gusty thunderstorms over the next week or more.

A dome of very hot air is setting up over the central United States and south-central Canada.

We here in Vermont will be on the eastern edge of this hot dome, which means we'll get periods of very warm, humid air.  At the same time, with the center of this "heat dome" to our west, the overall air flow will come from the northwest, riding down the front side of this high pressure ridge.

Such a northwest flow on the edge of a hot air mass, is a recipe for scattered, sometimes severe storms as little disturbances move southeastward in this airflow toward us.

It's hard to predict when or if any of these thunderstorms will develop any more than a day or two in advance. The storms also won't necessarily happen every day, and won't necessarily be all that widespread.

But while you're enjoying, or not enjoying the rather warm and sticky weather in the forecast for the next week or two, keep an eye out for thunderstorms, especially during afternoons and evenings

And You Thought The Mother's Day Weekend Snow In Vermont Was Weird

Traffic cam of Interstate 80 in Laramie, Wyoming. Yes, this was
taken this morning, June 9

It's June 9. Practically summer.

Imagine waking up to this on your morning weather report:

Winter storm warning....Heavy wet snow. Additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, Total accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph....Impacts: Some power lines and numerous tree branches will be down. Roads will be slushy and snowcapped, and icy in spots especially over bridges."

That was the state of affairs in Laramie Wyoming this morning, as very odd weather continues to hit the West and parts of the northern Plains.

Snow fell from Washington to Montana and south to Colorado over the past couple of days.  Snowfalls in the Rocky Mountains happen almost yearly in June, but this one is more extreme than usual, that's for sure.

Ski resorts in much of Colorado had fresh powder this morning. Snow plows were clearing slush and ice of Interstate 70 in Loveland Pass, Colorado, west of Denver.

This is all part of a very stormy pattern over the north central United States. The remnants of Cristobol continue moving through the Midwest toward the western Great Lakes and Canada, carrying a flood threat with it.

A separate storm that will eventually merge with former Cristobal is creating an odd wind storm in Kansas and Nebraska. Winter and early spring storms often carry widespread 60 to 70 mph wind gusts with them, but those storms don't happen in June.

This one IS  happening in June with forecasted wind gusts in that 60-75 mph range. Leafless trees in the winter don't fall as easily as ones with leaves.  The leaves act like little sails in strong winds, which will  pull down a lot of branches and trees in the central Plains today.

By the way, a few tornadoes are also likely today in parts of eastern Kansas and Nebraska, and in Illinois and surrounding states.

Back in Laramie, meanwhile winter redux will come to an abrupt end later this morning. They're expecting a high temperture of 57 degrees there today under increasing sunshine.  That's still chilly for this time of year - normal highs this time of year in Laramie are around 70 degrees - but at least the snow will melt quickly.

Some videos:

Nighttime video of snow laden trees and power flashes from  branches falling on lines in or near Laramie:



In a rather high elevation spot in Colorado this morning:

Cristobal: Size Matters

Cristobal is expected to eventually cross the western Great Lakes
and go into Canada later this week. 

Tropical Storm Cristobal, which came ashore in Louisiana Sunday proves that "weak" tropical systems are anything but.  

Top winds with this thing were 50 mph, which doesn't sound like that big of a deal.  However, what Cristobal lacked in wind was more than made up for in size.

Cristobal didn't have a classic tropical storm shape while it was in the Gulf of Mexico.  In satellite photos, it looked more like a giant comma, like you would see in a strong nor'easter in coastal New England during the winter.

Tropical storms and hurricanes usually have a more circular, symetrical shape.

The tropical storm was large in size, which meant it could cause havoc over a wide area.  That's why you saw on the news tornadoes swirling through Orlando, Florida. It's also why parts of Florida got up to a foot of rain.

Size mattered in an even more important way.  Cristobal's relatively modest winds covered a wide are of the Gulf, so it was able to push a lot of water ahead of it.

This created a nasty storm surge, made worse by the timing. The surge came just as high tide rolled in.  Coastal communities like Grand Isle, Louisiana and Waveland, Mississippi were inundated as a result .

MORE CRISTOBAL TROUBLE

Cristobal, now a tropical depression as of early this Monday morning, will move generally north and end up in Wisconsin by early Wednesday morning. It will take a swath of heavy rain with it. Flood watches are up along the projected path of Cristobal in Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa and Wisconsin.

The storm will be gradually becoming a non-tropical system as it moves northward through the Midwest. If it still has some tropical characteristics by the time it hits Wisconsin, which is quite possible, that will be something.

The storm is actually expected to strengthen as it approaches the Great Lakes as it gradually merges with another storm.  It could cause some damaging wind gusts midweek, and create the lowest air pressures on record for June in that area.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We won't have any direct impacts from Cristobal here in Vermont, but it sure is helping to make the weather forecast challenging.

The Cristobal storminess in the Midwest and a strong, but sharp and narrow upper level ridge further east puts Vermont in a weird spot.  A warm front out ahead of everything will try to move in, but there's disagreement in the computer models as to whether it will make it all the way through here.

High and mid level cloudiness will accompany this feature over Vermont Tuesday, and a pretty big temperature gradient will be setting up over or near Vermont.  We could end up with  a cool, cloudy 65 degree day up in Newport and a muggy 85 degree afternoon down in Bennington.  That's just one possibility, but the temperature contrast could set up further west, or further east. Who knows?

Wednesday's weather is a toss up. It all depends on where that warm front goes, and if it makes it north of us. It could either be humid and way up in the 80s to near 90 in a spot or two, or just in the 70s with more moderate humidity.

Amid all this uncertainty, the remains of Cristobal, and the cold front it will eventually drag through here at the end of the week, won't give us a lot of rain.  Which is too bad. We still need it, despite the showers we had over the weekend.

Here's a drone view of storm surge flooding from Cristobal in Grand Isle, Louisiana:

Another Weather Off The Rails Weekend (Not In Vermont, Though)

From 9 News:  A severe thunderstorm associated with a derecho
knocked this billboard down on a Denver building Saturday. 

As we forecasted yesterday morning, weather is definitely going off the rails in different parts of the nation this weekend, and that trend will continue for the next few days.

We here in Vermont will pretty much be an island of tranquility in the weather department, but that won't be the case elsewhere.

The most remarkable weather event Saturday was a long lasting derecho that got going near the Arizona/Utah border and raced north and northeastward during the day through the central and eastern Rocky Mountains and on into the western Dakotas.

Derechos are relatively rare events and almost unheard of in the Intermountain West. Yes, I know we just had a derecho in Pennsylvania and New Jersey last week, but they still don't happen all that often.

On average derechos happen once every year or every other year in much of the Midwest and South. On the East Coast, you average one every four years or so.  In the Intermountain West, there have maybe been a handful over the past several decades.

The one that swept through yesterday was a doozy, too, judging by wind reports. Just a sampling:

110 mph near Copper Mountain, Colorado
94 mph Butte County, South Dakota
92 mph near Cactus Plateau, South Dakota
85 mph, Four Corners, Wyoming

There were numerous reports of gusts above 75 mph, including in metro areas like Denver.

Meanwhile, Florida got in on the action, thanks to Tropical Storm Cristobal.  Most of the heavy weather with this system was east of its center.  This mass of storms spun off at several tornadoes in Florida, including one that passed through Orlando.

The Orlando Sentinel reported that at least 50 residents of apartment blocks and houses were displaced near the city's downtown because of tornado damage.

MORE ROUGH WEATHER COMING

Tropical Storm Cristobal will splash ashore around Louisiana later today. Storm surges and flooding is already happening in Louisiana and Mississippi, and that will continue the rest of the day.

However, the bigger drama from Cristobal will come over the next few days, as its remnants head north through the Arkansas, Missouri and into Wisconsin by Wednesday.

It won't really be a tropical storm by the time it hits the Great Lakes, but it will manage to intensify. It'll form into a mean storm for this time of year over or near Lake Superior.  Expect reports of wind damage, battering waves and erosion on the lakes and maybe some flash flooding.

VERMONT CALM

All this weather action will pretty much miss Vermont. The fact that Cristobol will be going by to our west will give us a squirt of warm to hot, and windy weather midweek, but nothing extreme.  Not a lot of rain is in the forecast either.  A cold front associated with the remnants of Cristobol might bring a few showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Cristobal Not The Only Threat: Wind, Tornadoes, Fire Even Snow Out West

WPTZ-TV's web cam captured this lightning strike at around 2:30
this morning over Plattsburgh, N.Y. Thunderstorms roamed through
northern New York and northern Vermont early this morning, bringing
much needed rain.  Hat tip to WPTZ meteorologist Ben
Frechette for posting this one. 

The weather headlines this weekend are dominated by   which is forecast to make landfall late Sunday night in or near Louisiana.

Storm surges three feet deep or more are expected in much of coastal Louisiana, and heavy rains will add to flooding woes.  The wind won't really be the problem. The water will be the issue.

As bad as that all sounds, it's the Rocky Mountain states and the western Plains that have even more action this weekend.

They'll have it all. Depending on where you are, wildfires are possible, so are strong winds not associated with thunderstorms, blowing dust, thunderstorms, possible tornadoes and even a snowstorm in a spot or two.

A strong cold front associated with a powerful upper level low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest are causing all this havoc.

Ahead of this storminess, strong south winds over the New Mexico and the High Plains of Colorado will gust to 65 mph.  This could cause some tree and power line damage. It could tip over high profile vehicles on highways.

Worse, it could make any wild or range fires in New Mexico and Colorado spread really quickly and become dangerous.

Further north and east, when you get up into South Dakota, the threat today will be tornadoes and dangerous supercell thunderstorms that will throw down huge hailstones and wicked straight line winds in some spots.

The highest chances of tornadoes and strong thunderstorm winds is over central South Dakota today.  The higher chances of damaging hail are more toward the Black Hills, where a hail storm the other day caused a lot of damage in and around Rapid City, South Dakota. 

The threat for severe storms and tornadoes continues tomorrow for northern South Dakota and the eastern half of North Dakota.

Heading back to Colorado and Utah, the problem up in the mountains today is not too little rain, like in the Plains east of Denver, but too much.  The strong cold front out there will set off some thunderstorms with heavy rain.

That'll trigger flash flooding, especially in a lot of those narrow slot canyons in Utah.

Up in Idaho, they're actually bracing for a snowstorm.  The National Weather Service in Pocatello said accumulating snows could reach all the way down to valley floors in towns like Stanley.  Some areas can expect several inches of snow.

All this is an extremely busy weather pattern for early June.  Severe storms and tornadoes are relatively common, as are flash floods this time of year. But this variety of weather, from winter weather, to tropical storms, to high winds, fires and those tornadoes, is pretty wild for what is generally a relatively mellow time of year in the weather department.

Up here in Vermont, we're missing out on the extremes, which is OK.  Thunderstorms blustered through northern parts of the state early this morning. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans captured  0.55 inches of much-needed rain from the early morning storms. Burlington only got 0.04 inches as the storms mostly missed them.

Scattered showers and storms will continue today and this evening, off an on, as a series of weather fronts and boundaries move through.  Any thunderstorms that get going today should not be severe, but a few might be gusty. Eastern and southern New England have a slightly better chance of a few strong to severe storms today.

After a cool Sunday and Monday, it will warm up to summertime levels again by mid-week.  I'm not sure it will hit 90 again. It did manage to get that warm in Burlington Friday.  We've already had three days this year that have gotten to 90, which is at least half our normal alotment for the entire summer.

On average, most 90 degree days in Burlington hit in July and August.

After A Horrendous Start, U.S. Tornado Season Fizzles

Tornado touching down in Iowa on Saturday. Despite this one,
the count of May tornadoes in the United States is well
below average, which is a rare bit of good weather news.

The United States has caught a break this month in one respect, anyway.

After a horrible March and April in which tornadoes killed no fewer than 53 people, and an April with a  way above average 350 or so tornadoes, things have quieted down markedly.

May and to a certain extent June are the peak tornado months, but May so far has been rather tame in that department.  

As of May 19, there had been just 47 tornadoes, with one death reported.  Since then, a few more tornadoes have spun up, but we are going to fall well short of the average of very roughly 300 May tornadoes.

Falling short in this regard is a good thing indeed!

Saturday was a relatively busy day with initial reports of 26 twisters to add to the 47 this month. But forecasts call for few if any real outbreaks of severe weather for the next several days.

The jet stream, which drives powerful parent storms that can spin off swarms of tornadoes this time of year, has retreated mostly north to near the U.S/Canadian border, robbing the Great Plains and Midwest of the proper conditions for a big outbreak.

Instead, there are regional outbreaks of rough weather caused by local conditions, such as a weak cold front interacting with humid air, or a clash of dry air and wet air in places like Texas.

One of the places that could conceivably get some severe weather is up her in northern New England late in the week, but even that prospect is quite iffy. Depending on the timing of a cold front which will push into some very warm, humid air that will be over us, some strong thunderstorms might develop.

But things will have to work out perfectly for that to happen, and in any event, a tornado is super unlikely with any strong storms we get toward the end of the week

Of course, tornadoes are not the only warm season weather hazard we need to worry about. Sluggish, slow moving storms that aren't favorable for tornadoes often dump boatloads of heavy rain, leading to flash flooding. We're still seeing plenty of that in various places, including Michigan, Florida and Nebraska, among others.

Also, NOAA says this year could see a very busy hurricane season because ocean and atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic favor a lot of tropical storm development in the coming several months.

Tornado Watch Much Of New England, Including Southern Vermont

UPDATE 4 p.m. 

As you might have already  heard, the National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for the southern four counties of Vermont, all but northern New Hampshire much of central New York and most of Massachusetts.

That means tornadoes are possible. If you are under this watch, continue doing what you're doing, but just have a reliable source of weather information next to you so you can hear any warnings come through.

If, on the off chance you get a tornado warning, march right down to the basement with your weather radio or weather source and stay put until you get the all clear. If no basement, an interior windowless room will do.

This isn't meant to be alarming. Just a precaution. Most people in the tornado watch area will not get a tornado warning. (A warning means a twister has been spotted or a potential one is on the radar screens).

So far at least, the forecast is playing out as expected. The northern third of Vermont has had some rain, and it's remaining pretty much overcast. And it looks like another batch of steadier rain is moving in, That is helping stabilize the atmosphere and limiting thunderstorms. There might be a strong thunderstorm or two up north coming up, but it won't be as extensive as further south.

Further south, there's a little sun, better dynamics and more shear, which is winds changing in direction and/or speed with height.  That will allow some thunderstorms to spin, especially if any supercells form ahead of the main band of strong storms.

The tornado watch lasts until 10 p.m. tonight, but it might expire in Vermont a little sooner than that as activity shifts to the east late this evening.

By the way, and this is important, if you get a severe thunderstorm warning but not a tornado warning, still take that very seriously. The worst of these thunderstorms will be capable of causing as much straight line wind damage as a tornado would.  And the straight line winds with these storms will be more widespread than any tornadoes, if any twisters form at all.

There will almost definitely be some severe thunderstorms scattered around southern Vermont in the next several hours. Tornado chances are iffier, but as you can tell, still possible.

UPDATE: 11:30 a.m.

The threat of severe storms has been pushed north to encompass most of Vermont.
Rotating supercells are possible in the yellow and orange zones.  There's still
a small risk of brief tornadoes in this area, but the main danger will
be strong damaging wind gusts and microbursts 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has adjusted the severe storm risk in New England further north, and now puts all of Vermont in a zone with at least some risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening.

A warm front with the approaching storm that will cause the rough weather is moving further north than expected, and that is helping push the instability needed for the storms further north.

As earlier forecasts indicated, the greatest risk for severe storms is in southern Vermont.

However, that somewhat higher risk zone has been pushed north to a Middlebury to Bradford line.

South of this line, a few supercell thunderstorms could develop.  They might rotate, which raises the risk, albeit small, of a tornado or two.  Even if no tornadoes form, these scattered supercells, and also a subsequent likely line of storms could cause damaging wind gusts, microbursts and large hail.

A few computer models focus the most dangerous storms in Rutland and Windsor counties, but that certainly remains to be seen. Anyone in Vermont should pay attention to further forecasts and warnings.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There's some real weather whiplash going on this week, as we've gone from snow last Friday and Saturday to a severe thunderstorm risk -  at least for some of us - today.

At least it's warmer, right?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has that risk of severe storms today in a good chunk of the Northeast, especially in the southern two thirds of New York, much of Pennsylvania and New Jersey and much of southern and central New England, including the southern half of Vermont.

Any of these areas could get damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a spin up tornado. Of most concern is  a narrow area encompassing central New York, western Massachusetts, the two southernmost counties of Vermont and the southwestern corner of New Hampshire.

At least that's the way things were looking early this morning in advance of this thing.

A storm with a center that was pretty close to Detroit early this morning will move probably right across far northern Vermont and New Hampshire this afternoon and evening.

That will put especially areas from about Montpelier south into the warm, humid air ahead of the storm. Skies seem like the might partially clear for a time during the early and mid afternoon, perhaps from about Rutland and White River south.

Especially in those areas, some muggy, summerish air will come in ahead of the storm's approaching cold front.

Forecasters are expecting short lines or clusters of thunderstorms to form ahead of this cold front and move east through New York and into central and southern New England this afternoon and evening.

The main threat from today's storms will be strong, damaging straight line winds from some of these storms. Large, damaging hail is also possible, especially in the zone of most concern I mentioned.

It's even possible a few rotating supercell thunderstorms could sprout ahead of the cold front today.  That means there's a small, but certainly non-zero chance of a brief tornado or two in far southern Vermont, western Massachusetts, and especially in central New York and the Hudson Valley from Albany to just north of New York City.

Areas highlighted have a slight, but not zero chance of a brief
tornado or two today, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

There's a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within this particular zone of concern. So you see the threat isn't super high, but it's something to watch.

In any event, any strong to severe thunderstorm can be dangerous. Remember, straight line winds can be a destructive as tornadoes.

If you are in areas today and this evening that are under a threat for severe storms, have a weather radio handy, or some reliable source to receive severe weather warnings.

As we always advise, stay indoors and away from windows during a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. In fact, in the unlikely but possible chance that you fall under a tornado warning, it would probably be best for you to hide in the basement until the danger has passed.

Up in northern Vermont, where I am, things will be calmer than points south. But in the north, there could be some briefly heavy rains in spots, and a few rumbles of thunder from some potential embedded non-severe thunderstorms.

I'm also sure as more data comes in this morning, forecasts for the severe weather risk will be adjusted. So whatever you see here this morning is not absolutely set in stone.

Things will clear out today to give us a pretty nice weekend.  It will be huge contrast to last weekend, when there was snow and strong, gusty cold winds.

Instead, this weekend will feature light winds, a fair amount of sun, though with some clouds, and seasonably mild temperatures.

The only drawback to this weekend's weather will be the lack of wind. Normally, that's fine, but with the warmer weather, black fly season is here with a vengeance, and they are really bad this year.  With no wind to blow them away from us, expect to get attacked visciously by these little buggers if you go outside Saturday and Sunday.

Tornadoes And Dust Devils Can Be Weird. Here's Proof

A tumbleweed devil bears down on a motorist in Washington State.
Looks scary, but it was fine. 

Today, we have a few odd tornado videos. Just for fun, I guess.

On Friday, a tornado hit an area around Puebla, Mexico.

Did I say a tornado? I meant five tornadoes. Yes, five tornadoes all lined up like ducks in a row.

These were a type of twister known as landspout tornadoes. They aren't the classic, usually more dangerous ones that originate in a supercell thunderstorm, and lower to the ground to cause their destruction.

Landspouts are usually associated with less severe thunderstorms and spin up starting from the ground. While any tornado is dangerous, landspouts are usually less violent than their supercell counterparts. Still, if you happen to see a landspout, head for the basement.

It's certainly unusual to get five of them spinning up like in Puebla, Mexico.  Here's a compilation video



The next video isn't unusual for a tornado video, but it is quite odd for where it was filmed: Around Doha, Qatar.  Twisters are rare in Qatar but certainly do occur from time to time.



The final video isn't a tornado at all. It's a dust devil.  Except it's got a surprise element.  Dust devils are tight whirls of air that spin up on clear, sunny days.  The strongest ones can cause minor damage but they're usually harmless.

This one is more of a tumbleweed devil. So cool!  It happened recently in Washington State. I'm told the car was not seriously harmed. The driver is fine.

Brutal Cold To Ease Up, But Dry, Chilly Weather Continues; More Southern Tornado Drama

Bowed but unbroken? Daffodils once again sag after a brutally
cold, subfreezing night in St. Albans, Vermont but it still looks
like they have a shot at reviving when it warms up 

It looks like those Vermont daffodils have a shot of surviving after all.

Last night and this morning were certainly very cold for this time of year, but due to I think two factors, the chill didn't go quite as deep as it could have.

The core of the coldest air from Canada several thousand feet overhead was over northern New England during the day Wednesday. That's why, really amazingly for this time of year, temperatures never did get above freezing in much of the Northeast Kingdom, all day.

Although the air overhead remained incredibly chilly for late April, the coldest of the air had moved off to the northeast by late last night and this morning. That helped keep temperatures at the surface a wee bit milder than they would have.

More importantly, the wind kept going all night. It wasn't strong by any means. But to get the coldest possible temperatures on a clear night, you need light winds or no winds to get the best conditions to radiate heat to outer space.

That didn't happen last night. Temperatures did get into the upper teens in the coldest hollows, and most of us stayed in the 20s. Burlington, I think got down to 29 degrees. Montpelier was 25. Neither were record lows, and it was actually a tad warmer this morning than yesterday morning, which was the opposite of forecasts.

Many of the blooms outside our Vermont doors, because they're such early season specimens, will probably survive what we got last night.  Some things probably didn't make it, but overall, we will have spring after all.

Just not right away. Although it will turn "warmer" than yesterday - how could it possibly be any colder? -- temperatures will remain below normal into next week at least.

The good news is below normal ain't what it used to be.  Normal temperatures continue to rise fast this time of year.  Normal highs are in the mid 40s on April Fools Day and around 60 as the month ends.

Coming up over the next week, there will be a couple days here and there that get into the low and mid 50s. That's really not bad, but still a little on the cool side for late April.

HOW DRY I AM?

One thing I've noticed is, despite the rain showers and frequent unseasonable snows this month, it's a bit dry, particularly in northern Vermont. I noticed the gardens, when not frozen, are a bit dusty.

The dry conditions can raise the risk of brush fires this time of year. All that dead vegetation is dry out there. Sure, last year's leaves, weeds, twigs and such get wet whenever it rains or snows, but things dry out fast this time of year.

That's especially true in Aprils like this one in northern Vermont in which each precipitation event doesn't amount to much. It makes it easier to dry things out. It often get dry readily in Vermont anyway this time of year.   Here's why:

First of all, there's no leaves on the trees yet. That means the sun's heat can go down to the forest floor without being shaded by foliage. That allows things to dry out faster.

Also, when trees are leafed out, they add moisture to the air. There's no leaves yet.  If you make the air more humid, it makes it harder for fires to start and spread.

This time of year, pushes of air from Canada are particularly dry. These airmasses from the Great White North are cold, as we know from experience over the past couple of days.

The April sun is strong, though. That causes air pockets to warm and rise. Something has to replace that air that came up from near the surface, so really, really dry air from up above makes its way to the surface. These updrafts and downdrafts can create some erratic wind gusts, even when the overall weather pattern isn't that blustery.

Today will be a classic example. Temperatures will recover this afternoon well into the 40s.  That's still a good ten degrees cooler than normal, but it's better than yesterday, for sure. The air mass today is really dry, and will get drier as the afternoon sun mixes the air.

A great measure of how dry it is is by looking at the dewpoint temperature. Here's an example: If the actual air temperature is 45 degrees and the dew point is 25 degrees, that means it would have to cool down to 25 degrees to create fog or at least dew or frost on the grass.

The wider the spread between the actual temperature and the dew point, the drier the air is.  Today, a typical Vermont location will see afternoon temperatures of around 45 degrees with a dewpoint within a few degrees either side of zero.

That's super dry, and can easily create conditions to start brush fires. Luckily, we did have that bit of snow and rain yesterday and the day before, so that wetted things down just a little bit. Plus, although winds today might be erratic, they won't be particularly strong. That leaves us with some fire danger today, but not an extreme one.   The driest area seems to be the Champlain Valley.

So please, no outdoor burning today, or any other similarly dry days.  It can easily get out of hand and you don't want that.

It might turn a little wetter as we head into the weekend and next week, especially in southern Vermont, so that might help.

SOUTHERN TORNADO DRAMA

Screen shot of video by storm chaser Pecos Hank as a tornado rips through
the town of Madill, Oklahoma Wednesday.

More tornadoes ripped through the South again yesteraday and overnight.  Reports are that five people have died - three in Texas and two in Oklahoma.

A remarkable string of four tornadic supercell arranged themselves in a tight north to south line in southern Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening, producing some photogenic, but unfortunately destructive tornadoes.  

Click on this link to watch a very wild video by Pecos Hank as he sat pretty much in a tornado that rapidly developed in Madill, Oklahoma. You'll see it wrecking a steel wire plant there. The tornado then moves on, leaving wreckage and a beautiful, sunny late afternoon. (It was even sunny from Pecos Hank's position watching the tornado. Go figure.

An even more remarkable tornadic supercell formed near Austin, Texas and traveled nearly 450 miles to the Louisiana-Mississippi border Wednesday afternoon and evening. That is an incredibly long lasting, durable supercell, especially considering it kept dropping tornadoes along the way.

The worst one was in Unalaska, well north of Houston, where the supercell dropped a powerful tornado that led to three deaths and widespread destruction in town, according to television station KPRC in Houston.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes continued overnight and into this morning in parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

Another round of storms and possible tornadoes are in the forecast for later today, especially in the southern halves of Alabama and Georgia.

Snow, Record Cold, Hail, Storms, Twisters: We Just Can't Have Nice Things

Springtime killed. Amid a dusting of snow, the sagging blooms and
the dark color leaves on these daffodils in my yard indicate
they might have been destroyed by the frigid temperatures. Photo was
taken while temperatures were still well below freezing. The
damage will probably be more apparent later. 

In the grand scheme of things, the losses and potential losses I found outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont this morning were pretty small.

But they were still disheartening.

I kind of expected it, but it was a shame to see the daffodils and other plants and flowers that had been coming up likely ruined by the intense cold from last night.

If any of them survived, they won't tonight as temperatures are likely to be in even colder tonight. I'll know at the end of the week what, if anything, survived. I have a feeling I won't even get to enjoy lilacs this year. Those buds could be damaged, too.  

Who knows? Maybe most of the plants will recover.  But I'm not optimistic at this point.

Amid everything that has been going on, it was nice to get some peace in my gardens from the early season blooms. Now those are gone, at least for now. So that was taken from me.  Everything had been coming up, so I don't know what kind of flowers and blooms I get later in the spring or summer.

Well, there's always next year.

As if to add insult to injury, as I started to write this, snow began to briefly fall pretty heavily. The sickening winter sound of a snow plow scraping by bothered me, too. There's not much snow, but it's blowing around and making the roads slick. It's not the usual April wet snow. It's powdery. Roads are frozen. Like January. Ugh.

At last check it was 18 degrees up in Saranac Lake, New York. The "warmest" parts of Vermont were in the upper 20s early this morning.  Snow covered the ground across most of northern Vermont, and I'm sure gardeners statewide found the same depressing sight out their doors that I did this morning.

Tonight, Vermont is in for record or near record cold. The record low tomorrow morning in Burlington is 23 degrees and in Montpelier it's 21 degrees. Those records are in jeopardy. Some areas of the Northeast Kingdom will probably be in the mid-teens tonight. A few places up there might not even get above freezing today.

Again, my "suffering" isn't that at all. Just a little disappointment. But you can't help but think the weather has gotten pretty mean-spirited.

I can't attribute today's weather to climate change.  It could be random, and you really can't take one weather event in one little spot on the globe and point at climate change.

However,  in a perverse way, it's consistent with it. We've been warned by scientist - as I recall since the late 1980s at least - we were heading toward a future that was generally warmer, but with a higher risk of sharp day to day jolts in temperatures and weather conditions. We were warned of warmer temperatures interrupted by sharp, damaging cold spells. That future is here.

Like what has been happening in lots of places, increasingly in recent years, things get going early in the spring due to oddly warm temperatures. Then an old fashioned quick freeze comes and ruins everything.

For me this year, it was just a bummer. For many agricultural interests in much of the eastern United States, this will be a disaster at a time they really don't need anothe disaster.

Freeze warnings are up for a broad area of the Middle Atlantic States, with temperatures likely to reach the 20s as far south as Virginia. Orchards and early crops in this region are in big trouble.

SEVERE STORMS

Gigantic hailstones came down overnight near
Devol, Oklahoma. Photo via Twitter/KOCO

And, as I've mentioned practically every day this month, severe storms keep rolling on.  Here's the latest update.

Those severe storms in the Middle Atlantic States certainly materialized.  Though tornadoes were not expected, one might have hit Toms River, on the Jersey shore. There's a lot of damage to trees and some houses, there, so the weather folks will probably investigate that today.

There was a tornado warning at one point for pretty intense rotation on the Bronx/Yonkers border yesterday afternoon, ut I don't know if anything actually touched down.

Yesterday, overnight and this morning, large hail, sometimes baseball sized, pelted parts of Oklahoma.

Tornadoes are in the forecast today for a broad area centered on where Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana meet. The tornado threat will spread into much of the rest of the Southeast tomorrow.

Back up here in Vermont, we're not expecting any severe weather. The frigid weather is enough, thank you. Although it will warm up somewhat starting tomorrow afternoon, it looks like it's going to stay colder than normal into early May.

If any of our garden plants can grow back, they'll have to wait awhile.

The Severe Weather Train Rolls On In The United States.

A tornado touched down near Sanford, Florida Monday. 

Right on schedule, around 11 a.m. this Tuesday morning, the wind abruptly began to howl outside my windows in St. Albans, Vermont.  Winds appeared to be gusting to over 40 mph, and I've already seen a few twigs and small branches come down, as of 11:30 a.m.

The strongest winds here won't last much longer, and the pale in comparison to some of the violent weather parts of the nation have seen this spring, as I've noted a few times before.

Vermont is getting hit by a dynamic, fast moving storm system coming in from the west. The worst of the trouble with this storm, though, will go by to the south for the rest of the day.

A pretty good squall line was in the beginning stages of forming in central New York and Pennsylvania late this morning, and it will sweep east, scattering a few pockests of damaging wind with thunderstorms from southern New England down to the Washington DC area.

This outbreak of bad weather won't be nearly as bad as what's been going on in the south, but you will hear news today of fallen trees, power outages and a few trees through house roofs and crushing cars today from Connecticut and Massachusetts to Virginia.

It's a continuation on a really active weather pattern this spring that has featured a fast flow of air across the United States jam packed with a variety of storms.  As we well know, these storms have left a series of snowstorms, floods and especially tornadoes behind.

The one affecting the Northeast today is unlikely to produce any tornadoes. But it is ushering in a blast of unseasonable cold air from Canada that will probably do damage in its own right. Freeze warnings are up for much of the Middle Atlantic States and areas in and around Ohio tomorrow night.

A lot of orchards are already blooming in that area - prematurely due to warmer than normal winter and early spring weather - so this could cause a lot of damage.

Up here in Vermont, things aren't that far along, so there won't be widespread crop damage, but as I noted yesterday, you might lose some of your daffodil and forsythia blooms.

THEN, MORE SEVERE

The next severe weather threat is already getting going near Colorado. Today, the first round of this system will likely create a few spots with gigantic hailstones in and near Oklahoma today.  A few towns might get some baseball sized hail, which really stings.

The storm will push east, and cause a risk of some severe storms and a couple tornadoes in eastern Texas and the southern Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, like the trend line we've seen so many times this year, the threat of severe storms and tornadoes on Thursday now appears to be greater than originally expected in parts of the Southeast.

The parent storm system looks like it will move a little more slowly than originally forecast, allowing more very humid air to infiltrate the Southeast than earlier thought. It also will allow the parent storm to strengthen more before moving off the East Coast.  Together, that helps increase the tornado threat, especially in Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida, as it looks now.

There's even a chance, once again - sigh - of some long tracked, strong tornadoes down there.

They don't catch a break, do they? Just yesterday, some dramatic looking tornadoes crossed Florida freeways, damaging buildings and trees on their way through, but thankfully causing no serious injuries and deaths.

Unfortunately, the strong Mississippi tornado I mentioned yesterday did kill one person. It was another EF-4, the second strongest catagory you can get, within a 30 mile radius with a week.  It's rare for the United States to get much more thank ten EF-4's per year, so having that many within a small area in just a week is something else.

Severe storm researcher Tony Lyza (@tlyazawx on Twitter) posted on that social media platform that shows at least 14 EF-2 or stronger have hit a narrow, roughly 150-mile wide corridor of Mississippi beween Interstates 10 and 20 since mid-December. That's an incredible density of relatively strong tornadoes for such a small area.  So yes, this is odd!

It still looks like severe weather might temporarily settle down for a time until early May, but that's not guaranteed. Just remember that May is typically the most active and dangerous month for tornadoes in the United States.

Video: Tornado crosses Interstate 75 near Marion Florida Monday:


Turn up the sound on this one. A tornadic supercell was passing near the viewers. That rumbling was either a tornado going by or constant thunder from the incredible amount of lightning you see in the video, or both.  I bet the people shooting the video are glad the storm didn't hit them full on:

No, All These Tornado Outbreaks In The South Are Not Normal

A tornado safety closet that a family huddled in is the only thing
left of a home swept away by a tornado last week in Mississippi.
The family survived. More dangerous tornadoes are expected
today in the same region.

Another outbreak of tornadoes appears likely in the Deep South today, continuing a terrible winter and spring down there of heartbreaking twisters, severe storms and repeated, devastating flooding, all amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Today looks especially bad across the northern half of Louisiana and the southern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area on level 4 of 5 in terms of risk level today.  So it's pretty serious.

Already, as of mid-morning, a tornado watch was up for eastern Texas and western Louisiana, including the Houston metro area. Some straight line wind and hail damage had already been reported in parts of the South as of 10 a.m. It will get worse as we go through the day.

Many of these areas are just coming off a terrible tornado outbreak exactly a week ago, so this is definitely bad news.

A few tornadoes today in this region might once again be especially strong, especially if supercell thunderstorms get going without interference from larger clusters of thunderstorms moving in from the west.

Even that larger cluster of storms from the west wil cause trouble with their own batch of tornadoes, strong winds, hail and flooding rains.

We obviously won't completely know until tomorrow how many tornadoes will form, how big they will be and whether they hit any heavily populated areas. But once again, people in the Deep South are hunkering down and praying the tornadoes miss their houses.

We are heading into the peak of tornado seasons and April tornadoes are rather normal, especially in the southeastern quarter of the United States.  Yes, tornadoes are normal, but the number of them this year, and the deaths they are causing, is anything but normal.

It turns out the tornado outbreak last Sunday and Monday yielded 132 twisters, which is a huge number for two days of severe weather.  Preliminary research indicates this is tied for the fifth-most numher of tornadoes in a two day outbreak on record in the United States.

The tie is with an April 15-16, 2011 southeastern United States outbreak. The record biggest outbreak for two days was 271 on April 26-27, 2011. So you can see 2011 was the benchmark for a horrendous tornado season, and one we don't want to repeat.

In addition to the tornado risk, flooding is a big concern in the Deep South, as it has been frequently for months now. Potentially life threatening areas of flash flooding are expected today in the same areas with the greatest tornado risk.

Not good.

The weather pattern will remain bad in the South in the upcoming week or more. Severe weather threats look like they will ramp up again Wednesday, then after, that, probably next weekend.

That Tornado Outbreak Killed 30 People; Major, Sometimes Weird Destruction

Just a slab is left of this house in Mississippi after this weekend's tornadoes,
and nobody is sure where it or its debris ended up. Photo by
Steven Macleroy, @SMacleroy on Twitter.

The weather system that caused all those tornadoes across the South has largely moved on, but people will still be picking up the pieces of this for a long time.

At last count, at least 30 people died in these tornadoes in the past couple of days.

There are at least 70 preliminary reports of tornadoes from this outbreak, and some of them were exceptionally strong. That accounts for the high death toll.

As in all major tornadoes, the damage can be extreme and very weird.  Three people were killed in a Mississippi cafe, where the only thing left was a concrete slab and debris piled up against fallen trees a few dozen feet away.

Another Mississippi house was also gone, with just a foundation and some floor boards. Drone footage taken at the scene appeared to show almost no debris around the house. I asked photographer Steven Macleroy, @SMacleroy on Twitter what he saw:

"We are not sure where any of that house ended up. There was very little that the homeowner's brother could find. The homeowner actually lives in Louisiana. Thankfully he and his family were not there."

Thankfully, indeed.  My guess is the house just got bodily sucked up into the tornado, pulverized in the air and rained down as small pieces of debris miles away.  Radar did show debris from this tornado nearly 30,000 feet in the air.

And Alabama meteorologist James Spann said a photograph that landed near Tuscaloosa, Alabama came from a tornado-destroyed house 120 miles away in Mississippi.  Another house in Mississippi had its house and most of its walls torn down, but a freshly baked cake in a glass container sat untouched on an island counter in the middle of what was left of the kitchen.

Some severe thunderstorms will linger in northern Florida today and perhaps tomorrow, but there are no new big tornado outbreaks in the immediate forecast.

Still, there has already been more than 60 tornado deaths in the United States, just a smidge under average for an entire year.  This is shaping up to be the worst yeaer for tornadoes since the epic year of 2011, which saw more than 500 tornado deaths.

We are still in the early parts of tornado season, with May usually being the worst month. Which means more outbreaks are likely.  We just don't know when, where and how bad.  You want tornadoes to hit open areas with little population, but as we saw in the South over the past couple days, that's more often than not impossible.

Videos:

Many of the areas hit by the strong tornadoes on Easter have a lot of mobile homes, which are especially dangerous in twisters. This aerial view includes some shots of just brown rectangles in the landscape. That's where mobile homes were. In some cases, where they are now is anybody's guess:



This video by Gage Shaw demonstrates one of many reasons why tornadoes in the Deep South are often more dangerous than a lot of twisters in the Great Plains.

In this video, the mile-wide EF-4, powerful tornado is in there. You have to know what you're looking for. Look carefully and you can see the back edge of the massive tornado in the video.

Around 2:00 into the video, the tornado is relatively apparent, but is barely visible, but just as strong, a minute later:





Here, a house in Georgia was bodily moved from its perch atop a small hill, perhaps 100 feet to a spot in the middle of the road:

Death Toll Rising In Latest Tornado Outbreak

Huge tornado near Soso, Mississippi Sunday. Photo via
Twitter, @ConnorWx

As of early this morning, at least 18 people have died in that long anticipated tornado outbreak in the South, and things were still very rough as dawn broke Monday.

As of around 7 a.m. this morning, a destructive, very long squall line stretching from Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia and the Florida panhandle was unleashing dangerous thunderstorrms with embedded tornadoes.

That risk will continue there until the squall line moves off the coast later this morning.  Another line of severe thunderstorms, and maybe a few tornadoes, might form toward noon or early afternoon, we'll see.

The death toll was rising this morning and I worry it will continue to do so. The 18 deaths would mean 51 people have died in tornadoes in the United States so far this year, and we haven't even hit the peak of the severe weather season yet.  On average 69 peopl lose their lives to U.S. tornadoes annually.

Just looking at the radar images yesterday last evening was terrifying enough. Judging from those images, two strong tornadoes, one following the other by less than an hour, too parallel paths through the Soso, Mississippi area.

Those radar images showed pieces of debris thrown 30,000 feet into the air, then raining down over a 60-mile radius. Soso appears to have been in the path of a monstrous supercell thunderstorm that dropped a string of tornadoes across southeastern Mississippi.

Other destructive tornadoes caused lots of damage around Monroe, Louisiana and near Chattanooga, Tennessee. The Weather Channel said five people were killed when a tornado struck a mobile home park near the Tennessee-Georgia border.

The storms then continued into northern Georgia. Radar picked up what appeared to be a tornado passing within about a mile of Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.

The orange stripe  uo usee on this map is from
early this morning. The orange stripe is all
severe thunderstorm warnings. The red
spots are tornado warnings. 

Flooding was widespread as well, with all of northern Alabama under a flood warning this morning. Flash flooding was occuring across the central and southern Appalachians, with reports of downtown Roanoke, Virginia under water.

Once that squall line goes offshore, the action shifts to the Great Lakes and Northeast during the day today. No tornadoes are expected up in places like New England,   but forecasts for strong winds still hold.

High wind warnings and wind advisories cover most of the nation east of the Mississippi River except for parts of Florida, northern and central Vermont, and parts of New Hampshire. Even in those areas without advisories, winds will be strong enough to knock over a few trees and power lines.

As you can tell, this powerful storm behaved as expected, which is too bad.  I think every meteorologist out there would have preferred a forecast bust.

However, I'm sure days of alerts and warnings leading right up to the severe weather saved lives, since people were made aware of the danger before it hit.

Weather will always throw a few curves and surprises at us, but forecasting continues ot improve. This storm was a great example of some spot-on predictions.

Video:

An overview news report helps capture the extent of at least part of this outbreak:

Storm Update: Today Still Looks Dangerous South; East Coast Danger Monday

Opening salvo: Huge hail in Del Rio,
Texas Saturday.  Tornadoes, high winds,
floods, etc are risks in the South
and East today and Monday. 

We're getting into the thick of the storm in the Deep South this morning and it will only get worse as the day wears on.

As expected, it started in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas yesterday, mostly with scattered reports of huge hail.  One supercell crossed the border from Mexico into Del Rio, Texas, throwing hail almost the size of grapefruit  down on that city last night. Baseball sized hail blasted a few towns in Kansas.

Tornado warnings were already flying this morning in northeastern Texas. This is the beginning of several waves of thunderstorms going across the Deep South this morning.

All of these storms will be dangerous, but forecasters are in particular watching central and southern Mississippi early this afternoon. There, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, supercells are expected to develop, the move across Alabama later in the afternoon and Georgia toward evening.

These are the storms that are most likely to set off strong, especially dangerous long lasting tornadoes. It's not certain whether these strong tornadoes will actually happen. But there is that risk.

Amid all this,  torrential rains and flooding are a very good bet across much of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There's going to be a lot of damage and heartache in the South this Easter Sunday, unfortunately.

It's now becoming apparent Monday won't be that much better. The rough weather will have ended in the Deep South, but there will be trouble along the entire East Coast from Maine to Florida.

Severe thunderstorms are likely with a risk of tornadoes, will run from Pennsylvania to Florida, with the highest risk of stronger, longer lasting twisters in Virginia and the Carolinas, along with southeastern Georgia.  There's a chance that some of the Carolina tornadoes could be as bad, or nearly as bad as the ones expected in the Deep South today.

Even in pretty big severe weather outbreaks like this, most people in the affected zone will come out of this fine with little or no property damage. But people need to be weather aware in these zones, so if they are unlucky enough to be in the target of a severe storm or tornado, they can take cover.

In New England, there will be few if any severe thunderstorms, but strong, damaging winds will come through. Wind gusts could easily reach 70 mph in the New York City metro area and in the southern half of New England.

Further west, gusts in the 70 mph range are also expected in western New York. These kinds of winds will bring down lots of trees and power lines in heavily populated areas.  There's going to be a lot of power outages, and probably more than a few houses and buildings smushed by falling trees.

Southwest winds will be so strong that Lake Erie will tilt, with water piling up on the northeast corner of the lake near Buffalo.  Water levels will fall as much as seven feet on the western end of the lake, and rise by at least five feet near Buffalo. Battering waves will make things worse.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Vermont will be a relative island of calm amid all this but that doesn't mean we'll avoid trouble. While the highest winds will probably go by to our west and east, we will still get strong gusty winds.

Ahead of the powerful storm's strong cold front, gusty south winds will strike especially the Champlain Valley. We'll all get a pretty good slug of rain, with still a risk of some flooding up in the Northeast Kingdom.

When the cold front sweeps through in the afternoon, we'll get heavier, but relatively brief downpours, with maybe some scattered thunderstorms embedded.

The worst winds will come in right after the cold front. In Vermont, many places will have winds gusting to near 50 mph.  That's enough to topple some trees, especially since the soil is wet and loose this time of year, and with all the rain expected Monday. Branches and power lines could go, too, so be ready for that!

Things will calm down somewhat by Tuesday. It'll still be kind of windy on Tuesday, but not gusty enough to cause more problems.

Here's a video of the hail in Del Rio, Texas. I like the comment from someone in the video, "Insurance adjusters, beware." Indeed!

Tornado And Severe Weather Threat Still Big Risk In South

The question of the weekend in the Deep South is where there
be more of these types of highly visible but also highly
destructive tornadoes, or.....

Meteorologists around the nation, but especially in the Deep South are still watching what could be a terrible severe weather outbreak unfold this weekend.

Not to be glib in a situation like this, but it's an April classic, at least as the overall weather set up is.

A strong - and strengthening storm will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday.  There's going to be another snowstorm on its northwest flank from the central Plains up into Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

Strong, destructive winds and shoreline flooding are forecast for most of the Great Lakes.

But the real, most worrisome situation is the threat for tornadoes, some maybe long lasting and strong, especially Sunday. As readers of this blog thingy know, forecasters have been watching this situation for days now, and there are no signs so far that anybody can rest easy.

The first hint of trouble came Friday with a swarm of supercell thunderstorms in western Texas that produced some gigantic hail stones, as loud and enthusiastic storm chaser Reed Timmer discovered.

The trouble will begin to really blossom today. as most of Texas and a large chunk of Oklahoma fall under a severe storm threat. Tornadoes and destructive straight line winds are real threats today, but large hail is once again the predominant hazard today and tonight in this area.

The Sunday threat covers a huge area from eastern Texas to the Carolinas and from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio River.  The main bullseye for the worst of it continues to look like it will be Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, at least as things stand now.

The question is not whether severe weather develops, it's what form it will take. The worst way it could develop if a bunch of rotating supercells form, with each one being on its own, not part of any squall lines.

If that happens, you get these wide, long lasting and intense tornadoes that cause the most extreme damage, and are the most life-threatening since they are so strong.

....or something like this not quite as strong, but still dangerous
and also hard to see coming rain-wrapped spinup tornadoes 

Things could instead develop into messy lines and cluster of thunderstorms. That's still really bad, because there would be embedded tornadoes and very serious straight line winds.

But most of the time, the tornadoes in this scenario, while still extremely dangerous, are not the high end super bad ones you get with those more isolated supercells I talked about above.

The tornadoes in these "messy" clusters have their own hazard, however. These are usually hidden within curtains of rain. Human nature sometimes prompts people to look for the tornado that's threatening them before taking shelter. Usually, you can't see this type of tornado coming.

Though there are guesses, I don't think anyone really knows how this will develop until it gets going. There will probably be those messy lines and clusters of storms, and discreet, big tornado ones,  but nobody is sure which style will predominate.

Some of the same areas most at risk for tornadoes and damaging winds also have a substantial flood risk.  At last check, most of Tenneessee and the northern halves of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia in particular are under the gun for heavy downpours and flash floods on Sunday.

It's already been a tremendously wet year in these areas and the expected three to six inches of rain Sunday and Sunday night will only trigger more flooding.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Here in Vermont, there will certainly be no tornadoes, but the storm will give us a few problems, albeit minor compared to what will go on in the South.

The storm will bring a quick slug of fairly heavy rain through on Monday. The National Weather Service is foreasting perhaps a half inch to an inch of rain.

That doesn't make me too frightened about any flooding, but we'll have to watch the Northeast Kingdom.  The mid elevations and mountains got quite a bit of snow from that last storm Thursday night and Friday. Averill, way up in the northeast corner of the state, got a foot of snow out of that one.

The lingering snow, and snow from previous storms on the mountains in the Northeast Kingdom, will do a lot of melting amid the rains coming up Monday, so there is the risk of some high water. They'll need to watch the flood prone Passumpsic River for this one.

The big story in and near Vermont with this one will be the wind. There will be gusts over 40 mph ahead of the cold front Monday morning and early afternoon.  Once the cold front passes, the winds will really crank, especially in northern New York, the northern Champlain Valley, and I think eastern slopes of the Green Mountains.

Winds could easily be strong enough to damage trees and power lines Monday, so we should keep that in mind.

Snow Update, And Humdinger Severe Weather Risk In South

Snow accumulating this morning on this soon to be blooming daffodil
in my St. Albans, Vermont yard makes it look like an
elaborate but disgruntled bird. 

I woke up at dawn in St. Albans, Vermont this morning and was delighted to see it didn't snow overnight at my place.

That was short lived when I checked the radar and a swirl of moisture, in the form of a band of snow, was on my doorstep and heading toward me.  Sure enough, a half hour later, it was snowing.

At least at my place, the snow will only briefly accumulate for a few hours this morning, then melt, probably amounting to an inch or less. But we'll see.  

However, again, sure enough, forecasts were right. It appears several inches of snow fell across many towns in north central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom. It was still snowing in these spots as of 7 a.m.

As April snowfalls go, this really isn't so unusual for Vermont. But until now, spring was running early, so it's a little disheartening to see the snow. In the valleys, most snow showers will change to, or at least mix with rain this afternoon.  By Saturday, the snow will be forgotten, except in parts of northern Vermont where there will still be some on the grouid.

Us Green Mountain Boys and Girls should thank our lucky stars that today's weather is merely unpleasant. And that the next storm coming along Sunday night and Monday looks merely inconvenient, and not super dangerous.

We can't say the same for Maine, which is buried in snow this morning, as expected. We also can't say the same for the Deep South, where ingredients are really coming together for a bunch of tornadoes on Easter Sunday. Some of those tornadoes could be biggies.

More on that in a moment, but first, Maine.

SNOWY MAINE MESS

Heavy snow and tree damage in Bangor, Maine this morning. Photo via
Twitter by Ben Sprague @bensprague. 

It was still snowing up there early this morning, but a lot of places already had more than a foot of snow.  Wellington, Maine reported 20 inches so far. Carmel, Maine, both towns in the north, by the way, had already picked up 18 inches of new snow.

Some places, especially in and near Baxter State Park, can expect more than two feet of snow by the time this tapers off. This is just an incredible storm, even by Maine standards.

Maine's heavy, wet snow has caused some terrible power failures, according to television station WMTW in Portland. More thank 200,000 homes and businesses in the state had no power this morning.  That's almost a third of Maine without power.

The coronavirus is hampering power restoration.  Utility workers are arriving at power outage sites separately, so they're not too close together, and they need to practice social distancing on site to reduce the risk of virus transmission. So yeah, it's complicated.

New power failures will surely develop as snow and gusty continue this morning. Fortunately, the snow will taper off later today.  The trouble going forward is that Monday storm I talked about will be warm in Maine. So warmth, melting snow and pretty heavy rain expected Monday is a bad combination if you don't want flooding.

SOUTHERN TORNADO ALERT

Ingredients definitely seem to be coming together for a nasty outbreak of tornadoes in the Deep South. If things develop as forecasters think they will (no guarantees, thankfully), this could be one of the worst, or the worst, tornado outbreaks of the year. We've already had a couple terrible ones, too.

The atmosphere in the Deep South Sunday will feature very humid air from the Gulf of Mexico near the surface. Strongs winds will scream a few thousand feet overhead, and those winds will change directions with height. The air will be highly unstable, making it easy for towering thunderstorm clouds to form.  Dry air coming in from the west high overhead would also help trigger storms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says there's a real risk of strong, long lasting tornadoes in the Deep South on Easter Sunday, and people ought to be thinking now of where they would take shelter if a tornado is approaching.

Granted, this hopefully won't be as bad as the Super Outbreak of April 25-28, 2011, which hit mostly in the South. That outbreak spawned 362 tornadoes causing 321 deaths.  This weekend won't be nearly that bad, thank goodness, but bad enough.  Possibly very dangerous.

I suppose there could be an Easter miracle in which some storm ingredient gets fouled up and makes things not as bad as predicted. But that could be just wishful thinking. We'll see.