"Mayuary" To End Midweek. Back To Spring Afterwards

Vermont AOT traffic cam shows a midwinter scene in mid-May this
morning along Route 9 in high elevation Woodford, Vermont.

Snow stayed on the ground all day for a second day at many elevations in Vermont above 1,000 feet Sunday as the May cold spell hung on.

My sister who lives in high elevation Shrewsbury said they got eight inches of snow by Saturday and only some of it had melted by Sunday evening.

At least things were better Sunday than they were Saturday. After some morning flurries, temperatures did rise into the 40s to around 50, which I guess was an improvement.

More wintry stuff is on way for the next couple of days, but the signals for hope at the end of the week keep getting stronger and stronger.  

First we'll have to get through the next two or three days.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is on its way, but it still doesn't look as bad as Saturday's frigid weather. But it will be bad enough.

The introduction to this new blast of air is a storm system coming across from the Plains and through the Great Lakes. This little system already has a history of dropping snow from Chicago to Toronto.  I guess we can take comfort in that it's not just us dealing with wintry weather in May.

Showers will break out today with that quick little storm scooting across central and southern New England. Far northern Vermont, especially the northwest, won't get much, if anything. Central and southern Vermont are in for afternoon rain, some thunderstorms, then, as the colder air works in, more snow in the mountains this evening and tonight.

The storm is small, but rambunctious enough to maybe produce some strong thunderstorms in southern New England today ahead of the colder air.

Here in Vermont,  looks like snow accumulations will be lighter and less widespread this time than Saturday.  Expect some places in the higher elevations to get a dusting to an inch, with a few spot two inch reports possible.

We'll have to watch for more freezes over the next few nights.

Tonight is tricky, with the best chances of a damaging freeze or frost being the further west you go.  That's because clearing will take place later tonight from west to east across the region.  The more nighttime hours that stay clear, the lower the temperature will go.

Breezes overnight will keep temperatures from bottoming even lower.

Tuesday will be another cold, blustery day.  Highs will only reach the 40s, which is close to 20 degrees below normal - way cold for May.  Gusty northwest winds will make it seem even colder.

Frost and freezes appear inevitable Tuesday night for most of us.  I'm just hoping places that are starting to leaf out and bloom stay above 28 degrees. That's the threshold for apple orchard damage if trees are blooming. Also, newly leafed out trees risk ugly freezer burn if it gets much colder than that.

The welcome warming trend starts Wedneday.  Under sunny skies, temperatures should get into the 50s. That's still on the cool side for May, but an improvement.

After another chilly, possibly frosty Thursday morning, it's all over. A new weather regime by then will take hold, one that's pretty much west to east across the nation, prett much coast to coast.

That means mostly near normal or even occasionally above normal temperatures starting Thursday afternoon and continuing quite possibly through the month.  It's safe to say, at least I hope, that after the next day or two, we're done with snow until next autumn.

There probably will be a few brief cool spells thrown in, with minor intrusions of chill or back door cold fronts during the rest of the month. These, however, will be absolutely nothing dramatic and won't interfere with your outdoor gardening plans so much. Assuming there's anything left of your garden after this week.

Overall, the warmth will win.

The new weather pattern might mean it will be somewhat wetter, too, which is actually a good thing in dry northwestern Vermont. (Southern Vermont seems to have had adequate precipitation lately).

The west to east pattern means little storms will swing by every couple or three days. If any of these can capture some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, we can get some decent rains out of some of them.

Maybe it'll be May flowers that bring June flowers and everything is just a little backed up?

Tennessee Proud After Tornadoes

Volunteers move debris this weekend to help victims of the
devastating tornadoes in Tennessee that struck Tuesday.

Can I just say I'm totally impressed with the people of Tennessee?

As you well know, tornadoes slammed central Tennessee last week, causing at least 24 deaths and spreading destruction through huge swaths of the state.  

In every disaster, people step up to help those who were hit.  I remember the wonderful outpouring of support here in Vermont when extreme flooding from Tropical Storm Irene wrecked many communities here in the Green Mountain State back in 2011. Vermont Strong, right?

The reaction was just as glorious in Tennessee after the tornadoes.  Tennessee's nickname is "The Volunteer State" and it has certainly lived up to its reputation in the past few days.

On Saturday, so many thousands of people turned out to help with recovery in and near Nashville that some were turned away and told to come back in a few days. They'll be needed, as this mess will take a long time to clean up.

Also, the urge to volunteer is so great that cars belonging to the Good Samaritans started blocking the way for trucks deployed to clear debris.  So Nashville set up a nice shuttle bus system for the volunteers. 

The huge tornado chewed its way from near Nashville and  blasted its way toward the town of Cookeville, Tennessee.  The twister swept houses away just west of downtown Cookeville, killed several people and just laid waste to the landscape.

The tornado had traveled about 60 miles eastward toward Cookeville. Just before it hit the community's downtown, it abruptly, miraculously dissipated. The scientists out there say another, weaker tornado forming nearby robbed the monster tornado of its energy source, causing it to collapse.

That's probably true, but it still feels like an almost supernatural miracle.

Small piece of debris pulled up into the air rained down on undamaged neighborhoods sometimes miles from the tornado path. Some of that "debris" was precious - family photos and momentoes torn from homes and scattered to the winds.

Anyway, a coffee shop in downtown Cookeville, spared from the tornado, stepped up to help in a wonderful way.  People who find photos on their property can bring them to the Soul Craft coffee shop in Cookeville. They're put in the box, and people can come in and look through the salvaged photos to see if any of them are theirs.

 Here's a news story on that coffee shop:

Storm Update: Slushy, Windy, Then Cold

That snowfall forecast map from the Natonal Weather Service
again.  Valley locations might just get a slushy coating
out of this, if current forecasts verify. Heavy accumulations
would be limited to the places about 2,000 feet above
sea level. 

As usual, we'll update the status of that expected storm now that it's actually closer to hitting us here in Vermont.

Since yesterday, it seems the forecast models have warmed up this storm locally just a smidge.  If that comes to pass, most places around here won't get too much snow, except in the high elevations.

There are a few winter weather advisories for snow. One is in the two southernmost counties of Vermont, where two to six inches of wet snow is likely at elevations above 1,000 feet.

Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks over in New York could get similar amounts.

The rest of us, at least those of us not way up high in elevation can expect one to three inches of slush and goop, along with a cold rain, at least during the main storm.

That being said, if the temperatures drop a degree or two more than expected late tonight and Thursday morning, heavier snow would still be in play.

In fact, I do detect a slight disagreement between the National Weather Service offices in South Burlington, Vermont and Gray, Maine.   The Maine forecasting office is a little more bullish on snow accumulation near the Connecticut River, which would imply a bit more snow in eastern Vermont than is currently being forecast.

But not much, and the differences are all just noise.

By the way, if you plan to venture to Quebec tomorrow, don't. There will be wet snow and strong winds up there, especialy from about Montreal north. It'll be pretty messy.

Some light snow and rain will harass us today, but the main show still looks like it will hit late tonight and the first half of Thursday.  

The storm center will be over Lake Ontario and will swing a strenthening front through here late tonight and Thursday.  This looks like it will produce a relatively brief, but heavy thump of precipitation.

As it stands now, it looks like that big thump of precipitation will mostly be a cold rain in the valleys, but again, don't be surprised if more snow enters the picture. Temperatures are marginal.  The front that is coming through will be frisky enough to possibly give a few of us a nice rumble of thunder or two.

Strong southeast winds ahead of this will cross over the the Green Mountains, and possibly produce damaging winds along the immediate west slopes of those Mountains, especially in parts of Bennington, Rutland and Addison counties.

Places like Mendon, Rutland, Goshen, Brandon and Starksboro could see wind gusts of 60 mph or even a little more than that.  Winds along the west slopes of the Greens further north than this will also be strong and gusty, but perhaps not quite as strong as areas further south.

After the storm goes by we'll get three days of chilly weather, and lots of snow showers in the central and northern Green Mountains.

Part of that will be coming off Lake Ontario. Lake effect snowstorms out in western New York are somewhat rare this late in winter because much of the Great Lakes are usually frozen over this time of year.

It's been a warm winter, so those lakes are mostly ice-free. This opens the door for a big lake effect snowstorm in parts of New York. The Tug Hill plateau, the snowbelt near the lakes not far from Watertown, could get up to three feet of snow out of this.

Nothing like that here in Vermont. The high elevation snow Thursday night through Saturday will be measured in inches, not feet.

After a chilly weekend, the seesaw continues with a quick burst of warmer than normal temperatures for the first half of next week. That's at least the way it looks now

Big Storm Winding Down Tonight In Vermont

It seemed like my house and truck in St. Albans, Vermont were gradually
 disappearing beneath deepening snow today despite my futile
efforts to keep shoveling. 

Given that the big storm we had today in Vermont was a nightmare to forecast, I'm impressed by how close the National Weather Service and other area meteorologists were able to predict accurately, well in advance, what would happen with this thing.

As forecast, the snow moved in from northwest to southeast starting early this morning and continuing through the day.

The band of heaviest snow came through in the late morning to mid afternoon, which several reports of one to three inch per hour snowfall rates.

As of 4 p.m. today, I measured 11 inches of new snow at my place in St. Albans, Vermont today. Combined with the 2.1 inches of snow that fell yesterday, the storm total so far is 13.1 inches. It was still snowing at that hour, though somewhat less intensely than it did earlier. The bottom line is I'll come very close to the roughly 18 inches of new snow the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said I would get.

As of 4:55 p.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington reported 11.5 inches of snow just today so far, for a two day total of 14.1 inches. I guess the Champlain Valley had some pretty uniform storm totals, although down toward Middlebury, there was definitely less snow than further north.

Snow totals taper off a lot as you head south and east across Vermont, as expected.

The only slight things off with the forecast were that ice accumulation was a bit heavier than expected last night in parts of the Champlain Valley. And the changeover to snow in the northwestern half of Vermont came just a wee bit earlier than expected, but not by much.

It appears the ice was also more destructive east of the Green Mountains than originally anticipated.  As of 5 p.m. Friday, Vermont Outage Map was reporting at least 13,000 homes and businesses without power, with most of those problems along and east of the Green Mountains from Caledonia County southward.

It looks like freezing rain, followed by snow that was initially wet and heavy, plus gusty northwest winds did a number on trees and power lines there.  

A snow covered car guns up equally snowy Fairfield Hill Road
in St. Albaans on Friday. 

As happy as I am with the accurate, user-friendly job the National Weather Service and area meteorologists did with this storm, I have a really serious bone to pick with some employers in Vermont.

Outfits like the University of Vermont and the state of Vermont government - at least parts of it - made people come to work this morning.

Then, when, as expected, the snow got intense and the roads became almost impassable, these idiot employers said, "Hey, Guess what?!? We're sending you home now. The storm is bad." 

Well, duh!

So, people had to drive home on unsafe roads in minimal visibility during the height of the storm.  Why did UVM and other not just have people not come to work this morning? Don't use the excuse, "Well, the roads weren't that bad at 8 a.m.!"

Never mind that every single Vermont weather forecast I came across this morning - all the TV meteorologists in Vermont, Eye On the Sky, the National Weather Service - were basically screaming that things would get out of hand with the weather by mid-morning. And that's exactly what happened.

I guess these employers don't give a crap about their employees' safety.

Kudos, by the way, to my supervisor at Gardener's Supply, where I work, who called me before 8 a.m. and told me not to come to work because of the weather.  Which meant I avoided a terrible, potentially dangerous commute back and forth between St. Albans and Burlington, Vermont.

 (I asked UVM about all this by responding to their Twitter message about the midday closure, but  as of late this afternoon, Twitter was refusing to let me post anything or receive messages and notifications. I don't know why.)

This evening, if you're home, stay there. Yes, the storm is winding down, but it will probably keep snowing until around midnight. True, it won't come down nearly as heavily as it did earlier today, but the flakes will keep flying. Gusty winds through the night will keep the snow blowing around too.

On top of that, this was a pretty big snowfall, at least in northwestern Vermont. It's also icy further south. Road crews were working pretty damn hard as of late Friday afternoon, but it will take a while to clean up this mess.

Vermont Emergency Management today did give one good reason why you might want to leave the house this evening.  That would be to check on your elderly neighbors.  Do they have heat? Do they need a path out of house through the snow? Are they OK?

After you're done with that, just go back inside and binge watch Netflix or something.

Also, in areas where the snow is pretty deep now, clear the powder away from vents. You don't want carbon monoxide backing up into the house. That oderless gas is a killer, you know.

In the wake of the storm, we'll have some pretty chilly air to deal with. It'll get close to zero tonight, with wind chills well below zero. It'll only get into the teens at best Saturday, and by Sunday morning, it'll be 5 to 15 below in most areas of the state.  That's the coldest it's been all winter, although that's not extreme by Vermont standards.

A brief warmup Monday means many valley locations will have some minor thawing. Say goodbye to the powder, though as the snow settles and gets wetter then freezes up a bit.

More periods of snow and snow showers will continue on and off all of next week, but there won't be any major storms or blockbuster accumulations.

It's February, deal with it.

Nasty Weather, But Lucking Out So Far In Northwest Vermont

An icy pine bough on my St. Albans, Vermont property this morning.
Ice is much less thick than expected and I'm happy to see that
so far, there's no storm damage at or near my home. 

If I am wrong about something, this is the way I want to be wrong. At least wrong so far.

It turns out, so far at least as of 6:30 a.m. , the freezing rain in northwest Vermont and northern New York is indeed bad, but not as bad as forecasts as recently as Saturday night said it would.

ICE SO FAR

Ice was definitely accumulating on the trees outside my St. Albans home as of 6:30 a.m., but so far at least, damage is very minor.

Power outages are not widespread yet in Vermont, with only scattered localized problems reported. Vermont Outage Map as of 8 a.m. had about 500 homes and businesses in Vermont without power, but that number has slowly been creeping up early this morning.

Most of the 30,000 or so outages in New York State as of 6 a.m. were in far western New York, where wind, not ice is the main problem.

We're not totally out of the woods yet, because many areas of northern New York and northern Vermont have a couple or few more hours of freezing rain to go.  That will further weigh down trees and power lines that are already starting to sag, so we should still anticipate some problems as the morning and early afternoon wear on.

Winds have started to increase as of 8 a.m. and will continue to do so.  That means some ice laden trees or branches might break, increasing the risk of power failures. But it still won't be as bad as we feared yesterday.

Ice is many areas is getting close to the point where it can start causing damage. Ice was  0.30 in hes thick in Clinton, New York; 0.22 inches thick in Plattsburgh, New York as of 6 a.m. and  0.17 inches thick in Burlington, Vermont.  At 0.25 inches,you start to see minor damage, and damage becomes pretty widespread at 0.5 inches.

At my place in St. Albans, I was relieved to see ice only 0.15 inches thick on trees so far as of 7:30 a.m. Even if we get a little more ice, I don't anticipate much damage around my property. The worries I had for my trees before the storm yesterday turned out to be unnecessary.

Of course as conditions change this morning, I'll update this post, or put up additional breaking storm news.

Still, it looks like ice accumulations for most people in the ice storm zone have a good chance of turning out to be less than expected.  The less ice the better, obviously.

Small differences in temperature made big differences as to what is happening out there. Saturday evening, temperatures crashed rapidly from the 50s to the 30s just as expected. But then, temperatures held just above freezing for a longer time period  than anticipated. That delayed the onset of the freezing rain.

For instance, Plattsburgh, New York didn't touch 32 degrees until around 1 a.m. this morning.  That was a good three or more hours later than expected. Which meant Plattsburgh "missed out" on three hours of freezing rain. I'm sure few people are disappointed by that.

The amount of precipitation was well forecast.  As of 7 a.m. Plattsburgh had collected about 1.5 inches of rain and melted ice, which is exactly in line with forecasts.

Outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont, temperatures have hovered around 31 or 32 since after midnight. It's not that far below freezing, so things don't turn to ice quickly.  As of 6 a.m., I was having a freezing rain downpour.   It was coming down so hard that a lot of the water was running off trees and power lines before it could freeze.

It has since tapered off to a freezing sprinkle.

Needless to say, though, the roads are quite icy. Stay off them until the freezing rain stops and crews have a chance to clear them.

Not everybody seems to be escaping the ice. In parts of Ontario, Canada, there is an inch of ice on everything, and there's a LOT of damage as a result.

Maybe people will say this storm was hyped here in Vermont and New York and we were all crying wolf.  But like I said, one or two degrees in temperature has so far made a big difference.

We'll see if things hold up well for the tail end of the storm.

FLOODING, RAIN, ODD TEMPERATURES

Flooding is still a concern as well, especially in northern and central Vermont. The hours of non-freeing rain was already pushing the Mississquoi River to flood stage early this morning. Many smaller creeks and streams are really high.

Other rivers, like the Lamoille, Winooski, Mad and Otter Creek, are still expected to reach flood stage, if they're not already there now.

The temperature contrast in southern Vermont continues to be amazing. At 6 a.m. Rutland was down to 34 degrees but Bennington was still at 62 degrees.  And 62 degrees at dawn anywhere in Vermont in January is something to behold, for sure.

The rain and freezing rain in Vermont this morning will turn to a period of snow in many areas by or during this afternoon, but it won't amount to much. Maybe an inch or so here and there.

The weather will remain active through the upcoming week, but any systems that come through will be weak with only light precipitation.

A more substantial storm seems like it wants to hit around here next weekend, but it's too soon to say what that means for us.

DOWN SOUTH

While we might not have been hit as hard as expected with the storm in Vermont, the anticipated severe weather and tornadoes certainly hit the South. At least eight people died in the storms, and many homes and businesses were destroyed or damaged from  Texas to Georgia.

At least 16 tornadoes touched down in the South since Friday although that number will probably rise as meteorologists inspect damage to determine if heavily hit areas had tornadoes or straight line winds.

A couple videos:

Damage from a violent tornado in Alabama Saturday. Notice how far debris and entire homes have been thrown:



More damage around Bossier City, Louisiana

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: No Big Changes To Dangerous Forecast

Add caption

Don't let the record warm temperatures and bits of sunshine you experienced today in Vermont fool you, we are still in for a humdinger of a storm

Dangerous ice is still coming to the north of Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. And far northern New York  is really going to get nailed with awful ice.

Much of the rest of Vermont is still in for some flooding.

By late afternoon, pretty heavy rain had worked itself into northern Vermont and it was gradually working its way to the south and east. That is the beginning of the end of the warmth, and the start of the freezing rain episode in the north.

The freezing rain won't start right away, but it will come tonight.

Let's set us up with what happened this afternoon. There were quite a few record highs this afternoon in New England, including around Vermont. Here are some of the records:

Burlington, Vermont: 59, beating 56 set in 1980
Montpelier, Vermont: 59, beating 52 set in 2014
Plattsburgh, New York: 53, beating 51 in 2017
Boston: 70 degrees; second warmest January day on record
Hartford, Connecticut: 67 degrees, third warmest day on record.

WHAT'S NEXT

I took this photo of the huge "Triplet Trees" in my St. Albans
back yard amid record warmth this morning. I took this possibly
final photo of the trees in case they were end up damaged or
destroyed in tonight's ice storm. I have no way
of knowing how they wil come out Hoping for the best! 

I would say there were more record highs in the North Country today than I expected. That does NOT mean it will be a little warmer than expected overnight.  So the ice is still coming.

If anything, it could possibly mean precipitation will be a tad heavier than expected, as the contrasting air masses involved with this storm are even a little more extreme than some had forecasted.

The cold air is starting to bleed in. Massena, New York, which would be the first place south of the  border with Canada to see the cold front actually saw it come through a little after 2 p.m. this afternoon, and temperatures there have been slowly falling ever since.

The cold front just barely came through around my place in St. Albans, Vermont at 5 p.m. this evening, accompanied by heavy rain. I'm writing this right at 5 p.m., and the gusty south winds we've had all day in St. Albans just turned to the northwest a couple minutes ago. The downward slide in temperature has begun.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington expects the rain to change to freezing rain in New York's St. Lawrence Valley and the northern tip of that state around 8 or 9 p.m. tonight. The northern Champlain Valley should go to freezing rain at around 10 or 11 p.m. tonight, and points south and east of there should go to freezing rain around midnight to 1 a.m. Sunday.

Places south and east of a line from a little north of Rutland to a little north of St. Johnsbury should get little if any freezing rain, if current forecasts come out right.

The low-level cold air coming down from Ontario and Quebec is about as cold as forecasts had been all along, so the freezing rain and ice damage in the north is most certainly on for later tonight and Sunday.

Forecasts for ice accumulation haven't changed much since this morning. Far northern New York still looks to get a disastrous one inch or so of ice accumulation, which would cause massive tree and power line damage.

The northern Champlain Valley is still in line to get a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice, which will certainly also cause a lot of damage.  By the way, southern Quebec from Montreal south, and sections of Ontario are in line for a very destructive ice storm tonight, too.

There's a couple things going for us that will make a bad situation not as bad as it could be. One, instead of a long, drawn out few days of freezing rain, we'll get downpours overnight.  So much rain will come down that some of the water won't have time to freeze until it reaches the ground, or soaks in. That would cut down a little on how much ice accumulates.

There's also a chance the low level cold air could get a little thicker in altitude than forecast. If that happens, we'd get some sleet, which doesn't really accumulate on trees and power lines. That would be most likely in the far north. Pray for more sleet than expected, believe it or not. That would make things less bad than forecast. Don't count on it, though.

FLOODING

Flooding is obviously still a concern with this storm.  It's been raining pretty hard in northwestern Vermont since mid-afternoon and small streams have already become torrents, aided by snow melt in the record warm air earlier today.

Even in the ice zone, expect some flooding this evening. I notice the small streams around my area in Franklin County, Vermont are already flowing at pretty high and fast rates as of 5 p.m. Saturday.

Small stream and gully flooding will increase this evening and overnight across northern and central Vermont as the heavy rain continues.  That will translate to mainstem river flooding on Sunday. Most rivers in Vermont will at least crest at minor flood levels. Several rivers in northern and central Vermont are still expected to reach moderate flood state.  Flood watches remain in effect, obviously.

Temperatures will also stay quite warm in southern Vermont, maybe not dropping below the 55-60 range overnight.

I'll update tonight, maybe, if warranted, and try to do a comprehensive update Sunday morning. That is, if I have power. We'll see how that goes. If you don't hear from me tomorrow morning, I don't have power, and won't be able to post. I'll figure it out eventually if that happens.

Quick Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, issued this afternoon. An inch of very damaging
ice is likely in northern New York. In northern Vermont, ice could
get to near a half inch, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley.
This would definitely lead to some damage just not as bad as NY.

As always with big storms, there are a few adjustments and updates to the forecast for our upcoming nasty storm.

The ice looks like it'll be at its worst in far northern New York, where an ice storm warning is now in effect from Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

There, the rain is likely to come down harder than in Vermont, and the subfreezing temperatures might also last a bit longer in that area. Ice accumulation in the ice storm warning area should come out to be about an inch thick.

That's enough to cause really bad damage to trees and power lines.  Long lasting power outages are likely in this area. Southern Quebec and parts of Ontario are in for the same thing, so it will be totally awful there, too.

In northern Vermont, there's a slightly less dire but still serious ice forecast. Closest to the Canadian border, in northern Grand Isle and Franklin counties, ice is now expected to thicken up to between a quarter to a half inch of ice.

That much  ice would still bring down a lot of trees and power lines and cause pretty widespread outages. But on the bright side, it won't be as bad as 1998, and, if the forecast comes true, the tree damage won't be super devastating, just kinda bad.  It probably won't look like the wholesale disaster zone the way the trees did in 1998.  Be prepared for a lot of yard cleanup with this is over, though.

Click on this map and the ice storm map above to make them bigger
and easier to read. More than 2.5 inches of rain and freezing rain
is likely in northwestern New York, which is an incredible amount
for January. Northern Vermont is getting more than
 an inch of precip, which is still a lot for this time of year. 

In Chittenden, Orleans and Essex counties, there's going to be ice accumulation later Saturday night and Sunday morning, but damage should be relatively light, again, if the forecast comes true.

If it turns a little colder than expected or rain is a little heavier than expected, the ice storm effects could be worse than I'm envisioning here.

Needless to say, road conditions wherever there is freezing rain will be atrocious.

Pretty much all of the forecasted icy areas in Vermont are under a winter weather advisory. But I'm going to advise a little extra on this advisory.

Most winter weather advisories in Vermont tend to be taken by the public as no big deal. Just kind of nuisance winter weather. This storm will go beyond nuisance and be a real problem.

The only main reason I can see that there's not a more dire ice storm warning in Vermont is because the criteria for an ice storm warning is that most of the area affected will have at least a half an inch of ice or more.  It doesn't look like northern Vermont will quite reach that criteria, although a few spots, especially the far northern Champlain Valley will probably see around a half of ice or a little more.

Flooding is still a good bet, too.  Forecasts call for minor to as much as moderate flooding along parts of the Winooski and Mad rivers and the Otter Creek.  This won't be as bad as the Halloween storm of 2019, but of course you would be stupid to drive into any flooded road.

Flood watches are up for the northern two thirds of Vermont, except right along the Canadian border where the already mentioned ice will build up.

As you well know, all this is subject to change as more data comes in. I'll update again Saturday morning, and again as needed as the storm progresses.

REST OF THE NATION:

As expected, severe thunderstorms and probably some tornadoes have been bubbling up, mostly in Oklahoma and Texas.  These will continue to expand and intensify overnight.  Tornadoes and very severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night. You don't see them coming and people are sleeping and don't get warnings.

An expansive area of freezing rain was beginning to blossom from western Oklahoma all the way up toward the Great Lakes.  If anything, some of that ice storm could be worse than what we're getting

Also, flood watches remain up for a huge area of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and of course, part of our region.

Snow Squalls Threaten Vermont This Evening

A snow squall last winter reduces visibility to a few hundred feet
last winter in St. Albans, Vermont. Similar conditions might
happen in northern Vermont this evening as there is a risk of
snow squalls.  These will make the roads dangerous 

Just a quick Wednesday evening alert: Snow squalls are bearing down on Vermont, especially the north.

Things are aligning pretty well for snow squalls this evening, any of which can produce brief whiteout conditions, and rapidly icing roads.  Which of course is a perfect recipe for pileups and crashes on Vermont roads later on.

As of 4:20 p.m., a snow squall warning was already in effect for the northwestern Adirondacks, as a dangerous snow squall moved into that region.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington warned of potentially life threatening travel in the path of the snow squall.

Here's what's going on:  West to southwest winds have been producing narrow bands of lake effect snow off of lakes Ontario and Erie.  A cold front is moving into this mess, and picking up the moisture and the snow from these bands.

The cold front is providing lift in the atmosphere, which helps produce and maintain precipitation.  With this situation, you end up with relatively narrow lines of intense snow. These are the kinds of things that are especially dangerous on the roads.

In one second, everything's fine: Visibility is good and the road is clear. The next minute, you can't see anything through your windshield and everything is iced up.  This is a great recipe for car crashes.

Those bands of snow that are producing the New York snow squall warnings are heading east, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if we get some snow squall warnings in northern Vermont.

Snow squall warnings are much like severe thunderstorm warnings in the summer. They cover a few counties at a time at most, and warn of a short period, usually lasting under an hour, of severe weather conditions.

If you hear a snow squall warning for your area, postpone travel until well after it has gone by. Also, if you are still at work, wait until well after it goes by and the state salt shakers and plows can get out there and clear the roads.

It usually doesn't snow much after a snow squall has passed, so visibility will greatly improve too one the squall goes by.

The snow squalls that were in New York last this afternoon might become a bit more disorganized when the come into Vermont. That means they will probably be hit and miss, again, much like summer thunderstorms.

None of the squalls will dump much snow, an inch or two at most, but they will be dangerous as they pass through.  The biggest threat for these snow squalls will be between 5 and 9 p.m. this evening, with the earlier times in northwestern Vermont and the later times toward the Northeast Kingdom.

Monday Morning Storm Update: Forecast Accurate So Far!

Additional snow forecast for today from the National Weather
Service. No big deal, except in far southern Vermont, where
another six inches or more could come down. 

Kudos to the National Weather Service and other meteorologists for so far very accurately predicting this huge winter storm affecting the Northeast.

If you're in far northern Vermont like me, you're asking, "What huge winter storm?"

Exactly.

As expected, the initial period of snow with a warm front from the parent low pressure system to the west faded as it moved northward through Vermont last night.  You could see the radar returns petering out last evening as the front ran of of gas and dissipated.

Burlington managed to get an inch of snow. Further north at my house in St. Albans, I got a whopping 0.2 inches of snow.  Further south, this warm front had a bit more oomph, with two to four inches of new snow generally falling in central Vermont, roughly between Route 4 and Route 2.

Meanwhile, as a new storm began to take over south of Long Island, the snow really picked up in central New England and the Hudson Valley of New York. In the southern tip of Vermont, Readsboro has already picked up 18 inches of snow. Parts of Saratoga County, New York are also closing in on a foot and a half of snow.

All this played out overnight as the NWS and most other meteorologists said they would.'

I have no reason to doubt the forecasts of how the rest of this will play out.  A dry slot has moved into the areas that had heavy snow, so it was just cloudy there early this morning with patches of light snow and freezing drizzle.

This state of affairs will continue for much of this morning before more moisture from the storm works in. That will make the snow pick up again.  The areas that got a foot or more of snow in far southern Vermont, eastern New York and some parts of central New England can expect another six inches of snow today, locally even more than that.

So yes, this is a blockbuster storm for many.

In central Vermont, around Rutland and White River Junction for instance, some of that new burst of moisture will come in, and that means there's a good potential for another two to four inches of snow.

That moisture will be working against some very dry air from Canada, and the battleground is in Vermont, at least partly.  Right now, it looks like the Canadian dryness will win out in areas north of Route 2, so little if any snow will fall during the day today there.  Meanwhile, in places like Montpelier, Middlebury and Warren, there will probably be some occasional light snow, no biggie.

The only potential surprise I see is if the surge of wet air from the main storm is more vigorous than forecast. If that happens, parts of central Vermont could see additional snow. I wouldn't hold my breath on that, though.

After this storm goes by, it looks like a series of cold fronts will zip on through between now and Friday, with each tossing down a handful of snowflakes to keep things at least vaguely wintry through the end of the week.  Some mountains, especially in the northern half of the state, could gradually accumulate several inches of snow by the end of the week from these little weather fronts.

Monday Vermont Evening Storm Update: High Impacts, Tricky Forecast

Well, that promised November winter storm has arrived in Vermont, at least for most of us as of 6 p.m. Monday night.

Light, but steady snow was falling across northern and central sections, and the roads were definitely bad on the commute home.

I avoided getting hit by the SUV sliding uncontrollably down one Burlington hill, and narrowly missed getting hit by some idiot who was fishtailing because the moron was upset the motorist in front of him was "only" going 25 mph in a 25 mph zone in a snowstorm.

The forecast for the rest of the storm is still on track here in Vermont, but there's still a high bust potential in some parts of the state.

The general outline is the same as I described this morning. The northwestern corner of Vermont and northern New York for that matter appears to be in for a LOT of snow.  The further south and east you go, the more mix of precipitation you get. Plus, the intensity of the precipitation is more iffy south and east than it is north and west.

The trick is, where will this borderline between heavy snow and a mix set up? A variance of just a degree or two in the atmosphere above us could really mess up the forecast. If a little more warm air aloft comes north than expected, some northern parts of Vermont would get less snow than forecast.

If the cold air wins out more, more snow could fall in central and perhaps southern Vermont than anticipated.

Whatever happens, the effects on you and me will be basically the same. Either the ice or the snow will mess up the Tuesday morning commute. In addition, in many areas, the mixed precipitation will change to a burst of relatively heavy snow in many locations around here at the time of the morning commute. It will be lousy.

The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that far northwestern Vermont (Grand Isle and Franklin counties) and northern New York are in for about a foot of snow, since there will be little or no sleet in these areas.  A winter storm warning remains in effect for the northwestern third of Vermont and most of northern New York.

The big bust potential is roughly a 30 or 40-mile wide line centered between Rutland and St. Johnsbury.  There, extra mixed precipitation might cut down on accumulations or extra snow might boost it.  Almost all of Vermont south and east of the winter storm warning is under a winter weather advisory is up.

Because of the mix and lighter precipitation, southern Vermont could get as little as an inch or two of snow and ice accumulation

Whatever happens, the snow will end west to east across the region during the day, leaving us in the upcoming well-advertised record cold air mass.

Analysis: Vermont Storm Fit Climate Change Trend: Was Big, I Even Have to Pick Up The Pieces

This tree fell on my husband Jeep in my St. Albans, Vermont yard,
likely totaling the vehicle

I spent last night as a storm refugee for the first time I can remember.  Then again, the storm Thursday night and Friday was among the worst I can remember, at least for Vermont as a whole.

At least in my opinion, it was the Green Mountain State's most destructive storm since the epic floods of Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.  Between the flooding - record river crests in at least two spots in northern Vermont - and the damaging winds, this one will probably have parts of Vermont declared a disaster areas.

For me and my husband Jeff, things aren't nearly as bad, as it is for some people, mind you.  My house is intact, but it lacks electricity. Falling branches pulled the wires and electrical box from the house and messed with the wiring system in the house, so we had to shut off the brakers. We hope to get things fixed within the next few days.

Plus a large tree fell on Jeff's Jeep, and it's probably totaled.  With all that going on, we moved into a La Quinta Inn motel room for the night.  I'm wrote most of this missive Saturday morning from the "comforts" of this motel room.

Our situation is an inconvenience that is being resolved super quickly. I was surprised and delighted when I checked on my house at 8:30 a.m. today to find Green Mountain Power already there repairing our electrical line. They have so much work to do after this store that I was very impressed with GMP's responsiveness.

There are other Vermonters who are sorting through flood damaged homes and businesses, trying to navigate washed out roads, figuring out what to do now that the culvert under the driveway, and the driveway itself is gone.  It will take awhile for some people to recover from this.  (Had we not replaced a culvert with a larger, sturdier one this summer, Jeff and I would have lost our driveway too in this storm, along with the other trouble we had.)

This was a much more serious storm than anyone expected in Vermont. Its effects are wide ranging, causing damage from near the Gulf Coast to Quebec.  The storm had its birth in the Rocky Mountains, where it caused unseasonable snows and all-time record lows for October. The storm contributed to the strong winds in California that fanned those wildfires.

Technically, the storm was a nationwide disaster.

You usually can't trace a direct line between a storm and climate change. You can't say this storm was "caused" by climate change. You can say this storm was consistent with climate change. The storm was probably influenced by climate change and there's a very good chance climate change made this storm worse than it otherwise might have been. If there wasn't climate change maybe the wind with this storm would not have been strong enough to knock the tree onto Jeff's Jeep. Who knows?

From WVNY: Significand flooding in Richmond, Vermont Friday. 

This tempest was a product of a wonky jet stream, which many scientists see as clue that climate change is messing with weather patterns. In a sense, this is so far the biggest direct impact climate change has had on me so far.

The rainfall was particularly, oddly heavy, especially in northern and central New York, most of Vermont and southern Quebec.  Here in Vemont, the storm dumped 5.26 inches of rain on East Berkshire and 4.85 inches on Enosburg Falls. After the heavy rains of the previous week, it's no wonder the Missisquoi River reached a record high crest at North Troy,'

In the Lamoille River watershed, 4.8 inches of rain fell on Fletcher, raising that river to a record high crest in Jeffersonville. This was no ordinary Vermont flood.

In an ominous way, this type of heavy rainfall makes sense. The atmosphere can hold more water when its warmer, meaning potential precipitation is heavier. Sure, this might have happened anyway. Vermont's worst flood on record, in 1927, happened this time of year, too. But these heavy rain events are getting more frequent. Parts of the Green Mountain State were declared a disaster area due to some serious flooding just this past April.

This storm had quite a one/two punch as the winds caused serious damage, as I said all up and down the East Coast and into Quebec. The damage was certainly noticeable here in Vermont, including at my St. Albans house, as mentioned.

Up to 50,000 people lost power in Vermont. That figure was 900,000 in Quebec, making this the worst power outage in the Canadian province since the famous ice storm of 1998. A man died around Montreal when, while taking a photo of a fallen tree, another tree fell on him, CBC reported.

The wind in Vermont was almost as destructive as the flooding. At some points Friday, at least 50,000 homes and businesses were without power in Vermont. Before dawn this morning that figure had fallen to roughly 28,000, including at yours truly's house.  With numbers that big, it will take a long time before everybody has electricity. I bet some people will be out for a week or more.

Elsewhere, the wind collapsed a large barn up in Maidstone, Vermont. A section of Interstate 91 was briefly closed when a fallen tree blocked both southbound lanes. The storm also cut off internet access in much of Burlington.

The temperature gyrations with this storm were incredibly remarkable, too. Again, I won't say climate changed "caused" this temperature weirdness, but it probably influenced it. Climate change can lead to bigger extremes.

True, out in the Rockies, on the cold side of this storm, they had a nearly unprecedented cold snap for this early in the season. Some cities hit all-time record lows for October. But as Vermont was in the throes of the storm, temperatures rose to a record highs in places like Burlington, where it reached 71 degrees late in the evening of October 31,  despite the fact the sun had long since set and it was raining.

The dew point, a measure of how much moisture is in the air, reached the humid levels of a muggy July night.

Very often, an emergency brings out the best in people and that was the case here.  For instance, in Burlington's Intervale, vegetable farms put out a call on social media to help quickly harvest carrots and other crops before the Winooski River flood arrived to ruin the vegetables. More than a dozen people showed up to save the day.

Even Vermont Gov. Phil Scott got into the act.  A tree blocked a road along his route Friday, so he pulled a chainsaw out of the back of his truck and removed the tree.

As is typical with big storms, we're getting something of a break from the rough weather.  A series of small little storms will gradually sink us into winter conditions over the course of the next week, at least for awhile.

But we are in a "new normal," as the cliche goes, so we'll experience more wild storms, more temperature extremes and more weirdness, both here in Vermont and everywhere else.  As my experience shows, even when it's not that bad, this is tiring and expensive. But here we are.

Some videos:

The Winooski River racing through the city of Winooski:



During the Halloween night storm, a tornado touched down west of Philadelphia. Here's a damage video:



And an ABC News overview of the storm.

Getting Back To Vermont: A Generously Rainy September So Far

Showers blossom east of Burlington, Vermont on September 4.
Most of the Green Mountain State has had a wet beginning to
October, easing a dry spell

While we've been focusing on Hurricane Dorian, which trashed Nova Scotia yesterday, I've also noticed we here in Vermont have been getting plenty of rain. At least in most places.

The cold front yesterday afternoon and evening certainly overproduced in many locations, especially north. While perhaps a tenth to a quarter inch of rain was expected at most, some pretty heavy downpours pushed through.

Burlington received a healthy 0.69 inches of rain. My unofficial rain guage in St. Albans, Vermont clocked in with 0.35 of an inch. Not huge, but still.

This after a 2.1 inch deluge in St. Albans on September 2-3 and other showers since then.

Burlington has already had more than half its normal September rainfall just a week into the month.

More rain is likely midweek.

All this is good news, because it had been getting rather dry. In fact, the U.S. Drought Monitor as of September 3 had parts of central and northern Vermont in the "abnormally dry" category, which is a precurser to drought conditions. That risk has eased.

If I want to be a nervous nelly about anything, it's that there is a risk, a very low one at this point that the rain could get out of hand later in the autumn.

Water temperatures off the East Coast are abnormally warm.  That would help keep tropical systems alive and very wet if they wanted to come inland and go into western New England. (I think Hurricane Dorian was so powerful in Nova Scotia because of oddly warm waters.

Additionally, in the autumn we start to get larger storm systems, including those that either move up the coast or pull moisture from the Atlantic. Storms would tend to be wetter if they're pulling from toastier than average water.

But like I said, at this point it's all good. We're still getting breaks of nice weather in between the showers. And for those who were sick of summertime heat and humidity, this September is a break from the previous three. Septembers 2016, 2017 and 2018 were the warmest on record in Vermont, and were essentially extensions of August.

So far this September, the temperature hasn't even made it to 80 degrees yet, never mind 90. The next few days will also be cool and autumnal. What's not to love about this September? At least so far.

Big Dorian Changes. And Up Here in Vermont, Autumn Arrives

Intense Hurricane Dorian Saturday morning. Click on the picture and
make it bigger. You can see the storm's distinct 10-15 mile wide
eye and an intense solid eye wall of powerful winds
immediately surrounding it.

Formidable Hurricane Dorian continued to churn toward the northwestern Bahamas this Saturday morning, packing sustained winds of 145 mph, says the National Hurricane Center. It's a strong category 4 storm, almost as bad as it gets.

It might strengthen a little more today, then there will be some fluctuations in strength as it approaches Florida.

Forecasts for a hurricane's path often change due to subtle shifts in the atmosphere and Dorian is no exception. It's possible Florida might catch a break after all.

For the past several days forecasts had Dorian plowing somewhere into the eastern coast of Florida. A ridge of high pressure to Dorian's north would steer it that way.

While Dorian might still come ashore in Florida, computer models and the National Hurricane Center are now latching on to a different scenario.
'
Essentially, Dorian seems like it might pull a Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew in 2016 was another powerful hurricane and it was feared then that it would smack into Florida's east coast. Instead, it moved northward, paralleling the coast, and finally came ashore in South Carolina while weakening.

This spared Florida the full, dangerous effects of Matthew. It's beginning to look like Dorian will do the same. The ridge of high pressure north of Dorian that is steering it looks like it will collapse just before Dorian gets to Florida. It now appears like the storm might move north off the coast of Florida like Matthew did. We shall see.

Of course, slow moving Matthew was still incredibly destructive in the United States, as it unleashed massive, record setting floods in the Carolinas and Georgia.

All this means is the United States is by no means off the hook with Hurricane Dorian. It will probably weaken somewhat as it approaches the southeastern United States coast midweek. And it will be close enough to the coast Sunday through the first half of the week to produce damaging winds, destructive storm surges and very heavy rain.

And flooding. Most of Matthew's United States destruction was due to its slow movement which allowed torrential rains to linger over the Carolinas and Georgia for a long time.

Dorian will also be moving very slowly, so we're probably looking at a repeat of serious Southeast United States flooding and storm surges with this.

Plus, the northwestern Bahamas look like they will feel the full effects of a powerful Category 4 hurricane, so there will be a big disaster there, too.

As always, there will be more adjustments to the projected path of Dorian, so stay tuned.

AUTUMN IN VERMONT?

August in Vermont has been close to normal temperature wise, or even a bit on the warm side, but now that the month is closing, fall weather is inevitable.

Just in time, here it comes.

Tonight will be rather cool in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks, where it could get into the upper 30s. No biggie for this time of year, but still.

Then on Monday, rain and clouds will hold daytime highs down in the 60s. If I'm not mistaken, that would be Burlington's first high temperature under 70 degrees since June 13.

After a brief warmup midweek with showers, it looks like we'll have a few autumnal days late in the week with highs in the 60s again. If we get any clear, calm nights during that period, I wouldn't be surprised to see a little frost in the coldest hollows of northern Vermont, New Hampshire and New York. It's that time of year!

Boomer Or Bust? Today's Severe Weather Forecast Still Complicated And Iffy

UPDATE 2 PM:

It looks like the greatest severe weather threat this afternoon will be in southern Vermont and especially, southern New England.

One band of showers and storms went through Vermont in the hours surrounding noon, weakening somewhat as they did so.  There was locally heavy rain with this band, but nothing extreme.

As expected, this initial band has stabilized the air over the northern half of Vermont. Lingering rain will mostly end by mid-afternoon, giving the atmosphere a chance to get primed for severe weather again.

But I doubt there will be anything widespread, at least in northern areas. There might be a strong storm or two. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is keeping all of Vermont in the slight risk zone for severe storms.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for central and southern New England, including the two southernmost counties in Vermont.

As of 1:30 p.m. southern New England was already starting to look problematic. A big thunderstorm in Connecticut at that hour was looking supercell-ish to me, and radar indicated it was starting to rotate.

The Storm Prediction Center is still not ruling out a tornado or two in central and southern New England and in eastern New York The risk is quite low, but still there.

More strong thunderstorms seemed to be forming in central New York State as of 1:30 p.m. Those New York state storms are the ones to watch as the head toward southern and possibly central Vermont later this afternoon. One storm near Gloversville, New York, well northwest of Albany, was showing signs of rotation, like the storm in Connecticut, as of 1:45 p.m.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

We know the atmosphere over the Northeast, including Vermont, is volatile enough to produce severe weather today, but will it actually happen.

As of early this morning, strong storms were already marching through far southern Vermont. The storms had prompted a severe thunderstorm warning northeast of Albany, New York around dawn.

Those same storms probably produced 40 mph wind gusts, and certainly had plenty of cloud to ground lightning and torrential downpours as they pass through Bennington and Windham counties between 6 and 7 a.m.

This activity was part of a warm front that will rush very humid air into Vermont by noon today at the latest.

More showers and storms were moving into central New York as of 7 a.m. and if they hold together, they will reach Vermont later this morning or very early this afternoon. They just might, given that a severe thunderstorm warning went up around 7:10 this morning in the Watertown, New York area, along the eastern shore of Lake Ontario. All this is also part of that warm front.

Expect rapid changes in weather, and possible special weather statements and storm warnings in Vermont starting later this morning.

This afternoon, we get into the juicy, unstable air.  However, all these morning storms and lingering clouds this afternoon could help limit the volatility of the air. Meaning severe thunderstorms could end up being relatively few and far between.

By no means are we off the hook, though. Despite the clouds, the atmosphere will be primed for at least a few strong to severe storms.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has most of New England, including all of Vermont except the extreme northwest tip in a slight risk zone for severe storms today.

If that comes to fruition, there will be scattered reports of severe storms across the region today. The primary threat today is strong straight line winds and microbursts. There is a very, very slight risk of a brief spin up tornado or two in central New England, including the southeastern third of Vermont.

It looks like several rounds of storms might come through -- especially south of Route 2.

The storms will have torrential downpours with them. There might be some local flash flood issues if one particular place gets hit by a "train" of thunderstorms repeatedly nailing the same spot.

The severe weather threat will be over by around sunset. The actual cold front that is helping trigger this messy day won't actually come through until overnight or early tomorrow morning. Unlike what's happening today, the cold front will pass by with little fanfare - just some no-big-deal showers.

We Vermonters Have A Good Shot At Thunderstorms This Sunday Afternoon

An isolated thunderstorm where New York, Vermont and Quebec meet
casts a shadow over the northern Champlain Valley Saturday evening
Coverage of storms will be greater this afternoon.

As of a little before 1 p.m. this humid Sunday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were rapidly firing in much of Vermont and northern New York.

I hate to ruin your Sunday afternoon, but I really hope we do get some decent rains out of these. We need it.

The trouble is, as is almost always the case with thunderstorms, it will be hit or miss. It's just that today, more ingredients have come together for storms than on many humid days this month, so the coverage will be greater.  

At this point, it looks something like 70 percent of us will get at least a little rain before sunset today.

On days like yesterday, updrafts near mountains and isolated lake breezes were the only things available to trigger some widely scattered thunderstorms.  Today, a weak disturbance from Quebec has been added to the mix, allowing for more storms.

A small minority of the storms could cause a bit of damage. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe weather. That means a very few isolated places around here could see some damaging wind gusts.

Since the humidity is fairly high, several thunderstorms will have heavy rain. They're moving right along, so it won't rain super hard in any one place for that long, so don't worry about epic flash floods.

But you might get ponding of water on roads and small creek and stream flooding, gully washers, damaged steep driveways, that sort of thing.

Also, there might be quite a bit of cloud to ground lightning with some of the storms today.

All this means this afternoon is probably not the day to go out on the lake, or take a long hike. You'll want to find a spot where you can quickly take shelter in a sturdy building while storms pass.

It'll be a very changeable rest of the afternoon. Here's one example: A shower abruptly formed directly over my St. Albans house at around 1:50 p.m.  The large rain drops were as warm as bath water. Then, by 1:55 p.m., the sun was back out. We didn't get nearly enough rain for my parched gardens to get a drink. I hope I get a much bigger downpour later today!

The storms will quickly weaken and fall apart near and after sunset this evening.

On Monday, it will be back to just isolated storms in the mountains. Warmer valleys like Burlington could easily make it to 90 degrees, just like on Saturday.

Showers and storms become more likely Tuesday and Wednesday as a very slow moving cold front approaches and limps through. If Tuesday's clouds and rain hold off until later in the day, it could hit 90 again.  Humidity will stay high on Wednesday before waning Thursday.

Update: Europe Heat Indeed Shattered Records

People trying to keep cool in Europe this week. Photo by Nicolas
Economou/NurPhoto/Getty Images

As expected, more all-time heat records were set in western Europe Thursday as the second unprecedented heat wave of the summer grilled the region.

Paris soared to incredible 108 degrees, beating the old record of 104 degrees to be the hottest temperature anyone has seen there. Breaking an all-time record is one thing. Breaking it by four degrees is just incredible. 

Records in Paris go back to 1658, so it's not like they just started keeping track of temperatures in Paris and missed something a few years back. The heat really was just out of this world.

Germany on Thursday had that nation's hottest temperature on record, when it got to 106.7 degrees in the town of Lingen. That breaks a national record that was established just 24 hours earlier.

In the Netherlands, the temperature reached 104 .7 degrees, also breaking the national record set a day earlier. Before that, the Netherlands hottest temperature on record of 101.5 degrees  had stood for 75 years.

As has been the case with many other recent extremes, a lot of experts say the hands of climate chang were all over this heat wave.

Says Reuters:

"Peter Inness, senior research fellow at the University of Reading (Great Britain) said: 'The fact that so many recent years have had very high summer temperatures both globally and across Europe is very much in line with what we expect from man-made global warming."

Climate change might be influencing these kinds of hot spells in two ways. The baseline temperature is just warmer than it was decades ago, which means the chances have increased for record breaking spikes in temperature.

Additionally, it's possible climate change is messing with the jet stream, making blocked, stalled and much wavier patterns, like the one that caused the Europe heat wave this week, to become more common.

Of course, these blocky patterns create areas of cool weather, too, where the jet stream dips. It's just that most of the time, the cool waves aren't as chilly as they used to be.

The pattern that caused the western Europe heat wave is creating a pretty sizeable area of chilly weather in parts of Russia and surrounding areas. There might be a few record lows there, but it won't match the extraordinary departures from normal in western Europe.

Similarly, as noted yesterday, a surge of dry air into the southern United States created some record low temperatures. Austin, Texas, dropped to 58 degrees, the first time on record there that a July temperature sank below 60 degrees. But, by afternoon, it was 90 degrees in Austin, which is only a few degrees below normal.

As the heat dome works its way north through places like Norway and finally the Arctic, it could also re-jigger the jet stream over our neck of the woods to give Vermont relatively cool weather during much of the first half of August.

It won't be extremely cold, and there's no guarantee that it will actually be refreshingly cool, but there is a decent chance that could happen. Stay tuned......

So Far, Vermont Flooding Mostly Minor In Vermont; But Water Continuing To Rise

State of the flooding in the region as of 7:15 this Saturday morning.
Light green areas are flood warnings, meaning flooding is occuring.
Dark green is flood watches. I do think we'll see a few more
light green flood warning areas popping up during the day today. 

As expected, rivers were rising across much of Vermont and surrounding areas early this Saturday morning. Already a few flood warnings were up in northern parts of the state.

With continued warm temperatures in at least some of the mountains and another surge of rain to go, flooding will probably still worsen in the state.

Rainfall across northern areas overnight ranged from a quarter inch to an inch. Normally that wouldn't be a big deal, but with snow melting from the mountains and saturated ground, this was enough to create at least a little flooding.

Snow melt from the mountains is pretty healthy. The top of Mount Mansfield lost eight inches of snow Friday, leaving the snow depth at 99 inches. That's still a lot, but it's the first time they've been under 100 inches since mid-February.

So far, things aren't as bad as they were with Monday's flood, but there's still areas of concerns. Parts of the Passumpsic, Missisquoi and Lamoille rivers in northern Vermont were already under flood warnings at dawn today. Route 122 near Route 5 in Lyndonville was already shut down by high water. So is part of Route 5 in St. Johnsbury Center.

In New York, flood warnings were up along the Ausable River. Flood warnings were also in effect on some northern New Hampshire rivers.

We'll have to follow rain patterns today to see if the situation intensifies. In general, the low areas that usually get flooded in the spring will go under water. As always, avoid driving through floodwater. Turn around and find another way to get to where you're going.

Forecast map has the Missiquoi River at North Troy flirting with moderate
flood stage today. 

Early this morning, a stalled out cold front bisected Vermont, roughly from between Bennington and Rutland, to a little southeast of Montpelier, to a little northwest of St. Johnsbury.

South and east of that line, it's summery humid with temperatures in the 60s. North and west of that front, it's a dank April morning with temperatures in the 40s.

If you have a sharp temperature contrast like that, you do have to worry about heavy rains.
Moisture pools along such boundaries and the contrast helps add lift to the atmosphere.

As it was, with the front stalled across north central Vermont overnight, some of the heaviest rain fell right along this boundary, with about an inch reported.

A batch of steadier rain from overnight was heading northeastward out of Vermont and into central and northern Maine, where flood concerns are even bigger than they are in Green Mountain State.

Meanwhile a batch of heavy showers and thunderstorms was entering southern Vermont as of mid-morning. It's unclear exactly how far north this rain will get before it gets shunted east. But much of the state can expect more showers, a few of them heavy, on and off during much of today.  It's also unclear if this northward moving batch of rain will lighten up, or maintain its intensity. 

Nevertheless, the rain and storms will generally want to follow that stalled front, so chances are at least southern and central and eastern Vermont, if not the whole state, could get another good, unwelcome dousing today.

In the warmer air in eastern Vermont, there's a heightened chance this rain could develop into heavier downpour-ish thunderstorms. That could increase the flash flood risk over the eastern half of the state.  Forecasters will just have to track it and see what happens.

Since there are some thunderstorms mixed in, there's the risk of torrential downpours that could touch of flash flooding in a few spots.

Rain will taper off this evening.  Easter Sunday still looks nice, with partly sunny skies, warm temperatures and only a minimal risk of showers.

Although there looks like there will be unsettled, showery weather of and on next week, the rain doesn't look particularly heavy, which is good.

Runoff from today's rain and snowmelt and continued runoff from some rain will continue to flow into Lake Champlain. It'll reach its 100-foot flood stage as soon as today.

Vermont Flood Waning. Does Another One Loom?

In this photo from VTrans, water from the White River beginning to
overtake Route 107 in Stockbridge on Monday. 

It has definitely stopped raining in Vermont and the rivers are receding after yesterday's floods. 

There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post showing the Vermont flooding.

It was nothing at all like the flood disaster in Nebraska earlier this spring, but the Vermont water was certainly high.

There were still some flood warnings out there this morning, including along the Winooski and upper Connecticut River and the Otter Creek in Center Rutland.

While the Connecticut River crest will continue downstream from the Northeast Kingdom, the other two rivers are receding and should fall below flood stage later today. Clearing skies, gusty winds and dry air today should help with the drying process. It's also too cold today for much of the remaining snow in the mountains to melt, so we don't have to worry about that runoff.

Luckily, this flood stopped short of damaging many houses. There were a handful of evacuations, and I know some basements in parts of central and southern Vermont were flooded. Most of the problems came along roads.

I was impressed by how many major state highways were closed by high water yesterday - probably at least a dozen.

Back roads took a hit. It's mud season, so dirt roads were soft and squishy and the soil was easily moved. Most heavy storms in April feature a steady soaking rain. This one included torrential downpours in thunderstorms in the southern half of Vermont, so many rural roads were washed out and closed. Quite the mess, I must say.

One person had to be rescued from a parking lot at the Killington Ski Resort. The resort is still open, and skiers sometimes sleep in their cars to save money during local skiing and riding exursions. While Anthony Szeliga, 23, of Niagara Falls, New York slept in the only car in the lot, waters rose overnight, trapping him in his SUV, according to the Rutland Herald.

Szeliga was rescued, uninjured and taken to a local hotel, the Herald reported. 

Northwestern Vermont, where I live, lucked out.  A lot of us had only roughly half an inch of rain, and it really caused no problems. Everything is high and dry today around my house in St. Albans.

Looking ahead, though, there might be more trouble. Wednesday will be dry and sunny, with normal temperatures in the 50s - no problems there.

There might be a little rain Thursday and Friday, and temperatures will rise sharply by Friday, so runoff from mountain snowmelt will pick up.

Then there is an interesting looking storm on Saturday. It's too soon to tell whether Vermont will be targeted by the storm's heavy rain or will the downpours go by to our west or east?

The storm looks like it's going to grab a plume of deep, rich moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and push it northward somewhere along the East Coast on Saturday. But the fine details aren't there yet.

It looks like we in Vermont would be on the warm side of the storm. If that comes to pass, we'd be at risk of thunderstorms with heavy downpours once again. Sharp rains like that would cause more back road and driveway washouts and such. So stay tuned.

Lake Champlain this morning was closing in on flood stage. It was 99 feet above sea level this morning and rising. Flood stage is 100 feet.  There's only minor flooding at 100 feet, but if it gets to 101 feet, you run the risk of shoreline damage, especially if strong wind whip up big, battering waves.

We'll have to keep an eye out on the lake over the next couple of weeks to see what it does.

Some video:

Scenes of flooding from various parts of central Vermont:



The Vermont Department of Agriculture took a drone over the flooding Winooski and Mad rivers in central Vermont Monday. As you can see, there was a lot of lowland flooding but the houses all looked safe. This flooding hit early enough in the season so that the agricultural fields you see under water should be fine when planting season hits: