After A Brief Break, Another Hurricane Threat For The United States

Just some of the computer models for the future
track of what could well become Hurricane Nate.
As you can see by the variety of potential paths,
the forecast for Nate is still uncertain, but it
really does pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

For a few blissful days, there hasn't been much in the way of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, and, thankfully, nothing to speak of near the United States except for a weak tropical disturbance near Florida.

Unfortunately, that started to change yesterday as a tropical depression formed near Nicaragua. That depression this morning strengthened to Tropical Storm Nate, which has a strong chance of becoming a hurricane.

Nate will likely cause big problems in Nicaragua and Honduras, Mexico, probably Cuba and, yes, the United States.

The tropical depression was having a hard time strengthening into Tropical Storm Nate early this morning because it was interacting with land over Nicaragua and Honduras. (Tropical storms and hurricanes only strengthen over warm water.)

Still, the storm is likely to cause dangerous flooding in those two countries today.

From there, Nate will head north and emerge over the toasty waters of the western Caribbean Sea, where it will likely strengthen. Before it gets too strong, the storm will likely clip Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

It's unclear whether what is now Nate will be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane by the time it gets to the Yucatan Peninsula sometime Friday night or early Saturday morning, but it will cause wind, flooding rain and possible storm surge problems there.

From there, Nate will move northward over the Gulf of Mexico toward the United States. The water in the Gulf of Mexico is very warm, which tropical systems love if they want to strengthen.

The big question is how much will this would-be hurricane strengthen before its inevitable landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Some models barely bring this to hurricane strength, it at all. Other computer forecast models dramatically strengthen Nate over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it a terrible threat to parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast by late Sunday or early Monday.

This far out, its exact track is also uncertain, but a zone from Louisiana through most of the Florida Panhandle are at risk. Wouldn't you know this is an area that is relatively unscathed between the flood devastation from Hurricane Harvey in Texas and southwestern Louisiana, and the Florida Peninsula, which was raked by Hurricane Irma last month.

So, once again, the United States is bracing for a possible disastrous hurricane.

Up here where we live in Vermont, it's possible the remnants of Nate could affect us next week. On the plus side, if it does, it would dump a big slug of rain on us, which we need. (The relatively modest rains that fell over northern Vermont last night helped a little,  but we need a lot more to get over our current dry spell.)

On the negative side, a gusty, heavy rain from a former tropical storm could short circuit some of the fall foliage, which is finally beginning to develop over the North Country - much later than normal due to the record September heat we had.

I can't give you any specifics, since the track of Nate is so uncertain.

Dangerous Hurricane Otto Making Landfall in Nicaragua, Costa Rica

Hurricane Otto just before landfall Thursday. 

As I write this, Hurricane Otto's eye was coming ashore near the Nicaragua and Costa Rican border as a ferocious storm with 110 mph sustained winds.  

This part of the world is not used to such strong hurricanes, so this could really be a disaster. 

Otto is an odd one. It's the strongest hurricane on record to strike this far to the southwest. It's below the latitude of the northern reaches of South America, so this is something. 

Otto is also the strongest Atlantic hurricane since 1934 to form this late in the season. In the relatively rare cases when tropical storms get going late in November, they're usually pretty lame. 

However, Otto is a beast. 

Just before 1 p.m. today, the eye of Otto made landfall on the extreme southern coast of Nicaragua near the town of San Juan De Nicaragua, says the National Hurricane Center. 

There is surely devastating winds and storm surges going on there and in northern Costa Rica. As Otto makes its way inland, torrential rains will cause terrible flash floods and mudslides. 

Otto will eventually emerge into the Pacific Ocean as a tropical storm, but strong upper level winds there will finish it off, making it just a remnant, weak swirl within a few days. 

Otto was already killing people and causing serious damage well before coming ashore. Three people died in Panama with the outer fringes of Otto. Two died in a rain-caused landslide, and a child died when a tree fell on a car.

See Panama landslide footage at the bottom of this post.

The governments of Nicaragua and Costa Rica evacuated tens of thousands of people away from the coastline, so we hope that will minimize the number of deaths Otto causes. 

Here's that terrifying video of the Panama landslide:

Tropical Storm, Soon To Be Hurricane Otto Formed While We Weren't Looking

Strengthening, soon-to-be Hurricane Otto in the southwestern
Caribbean this morning  

Hurricane season in the Atlantic basin officially ends November 30, though you can get tropical storms after that date.

Usually by now, though, our attention has turned away from the tropical Atlantic and toward snowy type weather events, like the snowfall that just turned my Vermont surroundings into a winter wonderland.

While we weren't looking, sneaky Tropical Storm Otto formed off the east coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Actually, there's been an area of disturbed weather in that area of the southwestern Caribbean for many days now and most forecasters knew it had the potential to turn into a tropical storm.

But like I said, we tend not to pay attention as much this time of year as we do during the height of hurricane season.

Otto became a tropical storm yesterday, As of 11 a.m., Otto was roughly 500 miles east of Costa Rica and Nicaragua and pretty much not moving anywhere. It had sustained winds of up to 70 mph, just short of hurricane strength.

The National Hurricane Center thinks Otto will become a hurricane later today and start drifting westward toward Central America.

I like the goofy name Otto, but this storm could end up being deadly serious.

At this point, it looks like Otto will hit the coast somewhere near the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua sometime on Thursday.

Predicting the strength of a hurricane, especially one like this one that's late season, over warm water in this section of the Caribbean, is tough. The current thinking is it will have sustained winds of 90 mph at landfall, which is dangerous enough, but there is a potential for Otto to get even stronger than that.

Otto's torrential rains moving into the steep terrain after landfall makes the risk of devastating flash floods.

Otto is unusually far south for an Atlantic hurricane. If it hits the coast as a hurricane as now predicted, it would be the farthest south an Atlantic basin hurricane has been recorded making landfall, says Bob Hanson at Weather Underground.

If Otto goes far enough south to make landfall in Costa Rica, it will be the first Atlantic hurricane to score a direct hit on that nation. Tropical storms have hit Costa Rica, but not full blown hurricanes.

The storm will weaken greatly over land, but will be intact enough to emerge out over the Pacific Ocean this weekend. I have no idea if it will strengthen back to a tropical storm when that happens.