Torrential Downpours A Vermont, New England Threat Today

2 PM SATURDAY UPDATE:



The cold front is pretty clear in this radar depiction of the Northeast
early this afternoon. That band of showers and storms curling
through Ontario, far northern New York and the northwest
corner of Vermont is basically the cold front. It's heading
toward the southeast, and once it passes your area, the
chances of strong storms and isolated flooding basically evaporate

The cold front from Canada is moving a little faster than expected, so northern areas of Vermont - North of Route 2 - should be mostly in the clear from storms within the next hour or two.

So that's good news. 

Further south, two main bands of storms are crossing Vermont. The first came through the Champlain Valley and other areas of northern Vermont in the late morning and early afternoon.

One storm near Montpelier had a severe warning with it. Most of the other storms had brief torrential downpours, lightning and wind gusts to 30 mph.

There is still the risk of a few strong to severe storms in the southern two thirds of Vermont this afternoon. Isolated areas of flash flooding are also possible south of Route 2. Further east, a severe thunderstorm watch is up for New Hampshire and Maine.

The storms south of the cold front were mostly showing a strengthening trend, which makes sense as we're getting into the peak heat of the day.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 7:30 a.m. SATURDAY

It sure is humid out there this morning.  It also feels like it's going to rain in this air you can wear.

Sure enough, pretty much all of us will get showers and thunderstorms today. For most of us, that's good news, as it's gotten to the point where our gardens could use a drink.

For a few of us, though, this might be bad news. In a couple spots, the rain might come down too hard, too fast.



We just had a major new culvert installed under our driveway in
St. Albans, Vermont to replace an old, collapsing, dangerous
one. This new culvert will probably get its first test today as heavy
downpours are expected to cause a lot of runoff in many spot. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has almost all of Vermont - almost all of New England, for that matter, in a slight risk zone for flash flooding today.
Most of us won't have a flash flood, of course. But in a few locations, ones that you can't predict more than a couple hours in advance, will have excessive downpours, which could mean flash flooding.

This would happen if we get the dreaded "training thunderstorms."  That's when one thunderstorm after another goes over the same spot, like boxcars rolling down train tracks. If this happens in areas where there are steep hillside, mountains and creeks, you could get masses of water rushing down the slopes, causing local flash floods.

If it rains hard where you are, keep an eye out for flooding and get out of the way if it develops. Flash floods have the word "flash" in them for a reason. They happen really quickly. In a, um, flash.

Another trouble spot would be urban areas, where heavy downpours could flood streets, cars and basements.

Also, for gawd's sake if the road is flooded in front of you, don't drive through it. Turn around and find another way to get where you're going.

The flooding is expected to be isolated, in the words of the National Weather Service. That means if there is flash flooding today, it will just in small areas. One town would have trouble, and the next town over would be completely fine.

Of course, another problem with today's weather is the downpours might overwhelm storm drains in cities like St. Albans, Burlington, Montpelier and Rutland, which would result in sewer discharges into rivers and ultimately Lake Champlain. Ah, yes, more pollution, phosphorus and general yuckiness in the lake. Oh, joy!

The showers and thunderstorms will probably come through in several waves, gradually working their way south and east across Vermont and the rest of New England today.

As I write this at 7:15 a.m. in St. Albans, up in the northwest corner of Vermont, the first wave of storms is coming in. I hear  thunder, and the sky is darkening. Most of this first batch is going just barely to my north.  There will be more opportunities for storms today, though, that's for sure.

There will be breaks between showers and storms, so the day won't be a washout. Just keep an eye to the sky and get inside when you hear thunder.

A very few thunderstorms today might also have damaging wind gusts. Most if not all the storms will not be severe, but a couple of them might get boisterous.

Things will settle down pretty quickly tonight. Sunday will turn out gorgeous, with sunshine and low humidity.

This upcoming week looks like a rinse and repeat of this past week. It will gradually get hotter and more humid as the week goes on, culminating with the risk of more thunderstorms at the end of the week. It'll feel like deja vu all over again.