"Potential" Tropical Storm Is Really Being Hyped

Just one of many potential tracks for Wannabe Isias.  Expect
forecasts to shift around a lot in the coming days.

If I were to believe some media and social media posts, I'd thing a Category 999 hurricane was about to blow Florida out of existence.

Before we got on with this post, some facts to clear up.

I hope you understand that I know that hurricanes only go up to Category 5; there's no such thing a "Category 999."

Category 5 is the worst hurricane you can get.  There is currently no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.   In fact, there are no hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

It's possible a tropical system of some sort could affect Florida over the weekend, but we don't know for sure if that will happen, and if it does, how big a deal it would be.

So here's the non-hype version, as best as I understand it.  If you want more information beyone what I'm about to describe, check out what real live scientists are saying over at the National Hurricane Center. 

The hype you're hearing is prompted by something called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine." As of this morning, it was causing really crappy weather way out there in the Lesser Antilles, and will probably do the same to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

They haven't given "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" a name yet because it hasn't developed a well defined circulation.  It's just a mass of gusty thunderstorms that overall have some spin, but haven't congealed into a storm yet. But as of early this morning, it was getting close to that level.

When it does (or even if) it gets its act together, it will be named Isaias.  If you're curious, it's pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

As you're probably sick of hearing from me by now, forecasting the strength of direction of any tropical system can get tricky.

It's especially so with Wannabe Isaias.  It's a huge clump of thunderstorms, and where a center eventually forms will determine its path and strength.  Right now, even the folks at National Hurricane Center are throwing up their hands a bit with this one.

But they're giving it a try, because that's what they do.

If Wannabe Isaias gets it act together today, it might get punched down to a wannabe again if it hits the Dominican Republic directly.  The mountains there will screw it up.

If Wannabe Isaias detours around that mountainous island, it could keep getting stronger.

This is where the Florida hype comes in. Wannabe Isaias  could  cause trouble in places like Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island, maybe Cuba or the Bahamas.

Forecasts tracks as of this morning take this thing toward Florida, but remember what I just said: Where the center of Wannabe Isaias eventually establishes itself will determine a lot about its future path.

It could pass south of Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico.  Maybe it will hit Florida. Or it'll curve north and then east and miss the United States entirely.  Note to Donald Trump: We don't know if Wannabe Isaias will affect Alabama. 

We just don't know any of this for certain yet.  Don't believe anyone who tells you they know for sure where this is going. They don't. At least not yet.  And don't even get me started with questions on whether Wannabe Isaias will affect Vermont and if it does, how so?  Use your Magic 8 ball for that one.

As mentioned above, we also don't know what kind of strength or lack thereof Wannabe Isaias will have.

So here's what you SHOULD do regarding Wannabe Isaias:

1. Continue monitoring the storm, especially if you live in or have interests in the Virgin Islands, Hait, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida.  No need for any kind of panic, by the way.

2. It's early in the hurricane season.  If you live in hurricane prone areas, or flood prone areas, now is a great time to pop down to Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever to pick up your hurricane preparedness supplies. This is whether or not Wannabe Isaias amounts to anything. Wear your mask  into the stores, please!

3. Have a plan in case Wannabe Isaias or any other tropical storm or hurricane comes along.  If told to evacuate, where would you go?  Make it easy to grab important documents and medications and such if you have to go.  Think about what you would do with pets.  Add in some extra planning because of this Covid pandemic.

4.  If this thing does get close to you and the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers start barking orders, like prepare or even evacuate, do what they say. It'll make it easier on everyone. Including yourselves.

Caribbean Dust, And New England The New Miami-Dade

Same two views on the island of St Barthelemy, before
the dust, top, and during the current outbreak of
Sarahan dust.  Photos by Mirco Ferro, via Twitter

We've got a this n' that post for you today, as the weather always fascinates.  Or at least gets weird pretty often.

So let's get started

SAHARA DUST

Time to head to a nice Caribbean island to enjoy the dust storms.

Wait, what?

I'm exaggerating when I'm calling the current weather in the tropical Atlantic a dust storm, but it is pretty damn dusty down there.

A huge plume of dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa has blown westward and is crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

Visibility on some islands was down to three miles or so, a sharp contrast to the deep blue skies and long views that residents and vacationers are accustomed to.

The dust will reach the U.S. Gulf Coast this week, causing hazy skies, beautiful sunrises and sunsets and maybe suppressing thunderstorms.

This cloud of dust from the Sahara desert actually isn't all that weird. These plumes of dust cross the Atlantic frequently from late spring to early fall.  This episode is just more intense than usual. Some observers are saying this plume is the thickest in five decades.

In one important respect, the dust clouds are a good thing, even if it does reduce visibility and hurt people with pre-existing respiratory problems.

The dust clouds suppress the thunderstorms needed to give birth to tropical storms and hurricanes. Such dangerous storms are much less likely when there is a plume of Sahara dust over the Atlantic.

It's early in the hurricane season now, so there probably wouldn't have been any tropical storms anyway this week, but if more dust clouds form and move out over the Atlantic, there's a chance it could reduce what is expected to be a busy hurricane season.

Don't count on that, though. Just because there's a big cloud of dust now doesn't mean it will keep happening with the same intensity all summer. and fall.  This just happens to be a random big outburst.

FLORIDA MOVES NORTH

Tropical style thunderstorm erupting Satiurday in Florida  oops
I mean Vermont. Things are a bit topsy turvy

The weather in New England has consistently been just like what you'd expect in Florida during the summer the past few days.

Heat waves hit New England almost every summer, of course. But this one has taken on the characteristics of a Florida summer.

In the Deep South, there are typically few major weather systems coming through in the summer. Cold fronts from Canada don't make it that far south, and no big storm systems come across the country to stir up the weather.  

Which means local conditions rule the roost when it comes to the weather.

In Florida's hot, humid weather sea breezes push inland, and form little weather fronts separating the marine air from the hotter conditions over land. These little weather fronts create just enough lift for daily thunderstorms in Florida during the summer.

Meanwhile, local updrafts  create more thunderstorms over interiror Florida.

Up here in New England, we're usually far enough north so that the usual roughly west to east flow of weather systems continues.  A cold front will come through with a burst of thunderstorms, followed by coolish, dry sunny weather, then a bout of hot, humid conditions, followed by another cold front, rinse and repeat.

You know the drill.

The past several days, and today, are featuring a pattern much more like Florida. There's no weather systems moving through, just a dome of hot, humid air over New England and southeastern Canada.

Which means New England is temporarily the new Miami-Dade. One of those sea breeze fronts created scattered thunderstorms a little inland from the coast in Massachusetts yesterday.

Meanwhile, local updrafts continued the daily rounds of scattered storms in interior New England. Unlike Florida, we have mountains, which are more than enough to create the initial updrafts to create those slow moving thundersetorms. They pop up, dump a big downpour on a small area, then dissipate. Then a few more form and do the same thing until the sun sets.

We'll finally revert back to typical northern weather patterns starting Tuesday.  The west to east flow of systems will resume.  A couple weak cold fronts will come through, creating a better chance of showers and storms later Tuesday and Wednesday.

The heat will then diminish, at least for awhile, starting at the end of the week.

Speaking of heat, Burlington has a shot of tying the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June. The record is seven, set in 1949.

We've had five such days this June, and we are on track to tie the 1949 record. High temperatures in Burlington are expected to reach 90 degrees today and tomorrow.

Odds And Ends: British Pressure, Raining Iguanas And Strange Tornado Warnings

Record high barometric pressure in London, England is among the
odd but mostly not dangerous weather events this week
around the world.

Some or all of the stuff in this post today might seem a bit isoteric, but they're really not.  But they are examples of how weather and climate can be interesting to watch even when the actual weather you're feeling isn't extreme at all.

We've had record high pressure in Great Britain. It was at least potentially raining iguanas in South Florida because of a chilly spell, and what was the deal with those tornado warnings along the winter dreary coast of Washington State?

LONDON PRESSURE 

The other day, London, England recorded its highest barometric pressure on record, which is impressive, since they've been keeping track of such things there for over 300 years.

According to Weather Underground's Category 6 blog, the mean sea-level pressure at Heathrow Airport was 1049.6 mb or 30.99 inches Sunday evening.

Record high pressures were also reported in France, Belgium and elsewhere on Sunday.

The record high pressure in London is really cool for weather geeks, but Londoners didn't exactly suffer under these condtiions. Record low pressure is associated with extreme storminess, but record high pressure usually brings fair weather.

In North America, near record high pressure is associated, at least in the winter, is usually associated with extremely cold Arctic outbreaks. But in England and western Europe, this record high pressure just brought fair and just relatively chilly air to the region

As Category 6 points out, though, if the pressure is high somewhere, it has to be low somewhere else.

When the air pressure is high, air is sinking in that spot. When air pressure is low, it's rising.

You read here the other day about that mammoth blizzard in Newfoundland. That was an extremely strong storm, with very low barometric.  That meant a lot of air was rising. (Rising air also means lots of precipitation, so no wonder it snowed so hard in Newfoundland.)

But that rising air has to end up somewhere. What goes up, must come down, so all that air that rose near Newfoundland sank near the United Kingdom.  With lots of sinking air the air pressure at the surface got to record high levels.

Another thing that happened is related: When there's a contrast over short distances between high pressure and low pressure, you get a lot of wind.

A storm hit Spain this week causing incredible amounts of wind and coastal flooding.  The storm, which is of course an area of low pressure, in Spain wasn't too, too strong as storms go. But the contrast between the mid-strength storm in Spain and the very high pressure to its north brought the wind, tides and towering, destructive waves.

Video of that storm, definitely worth watching, is at the bottom of this post.

FLORIDA WIND CHILLS AND IGUANAS

A burst of chilly air came into Florida this week. Well, it least it was chilly for them.

The Florida cold weather made a lot of news, not because it was so extreme in a historical context, but because these cold snaps have become increasingly rare in the Sunshine State due to global warming.

Early this morning, it got down to 40 degrees in Miami, which was the coldest it's been there since December, 2010. That sounds impressive, but the record low temperature for the date there is 30 degrees, so they didn't even get close to a record.

Still, 40 degrees is chilly for South Florida. The National Weather Service in Miami issued an unusual statement telling residents to not be surprised if iguanas fall from the trees in the cold.

When temperatures get into the 40s, iguanas stiffen up and basically shut down, so they'll fall from the trees. Some might die, but many if not most will recover. People were told to leave seemingly dead iguanas alone, because they'd likely recover if warmed up and maybe bite you.

The National Weather Service also issued wind chill advisories for South Florida yesterday, warning of air with wind that would make it feel like it was in the 20s and 30s outside.

To us winter hardy northerners, that seems laughable because a January day in the 30s is a warm spell. But people in Florida aren't used to such temperatures, so the advisory to stay well dressed to ward off hypothermia was smart.

Of course, the NWS used the standard language used all across the United States for wind chill advisories, so the statement also alerted people to the possibility of frostbite. That is impossible if actual temperatures stay above freezing, as they did in South Florida

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TORNADOES?

A series of storms off the Pacific Ocean has kept the western Washington and Oregon pretty wet this month, and that parade of wet weather will continue this week.

A particularly rembunctious storm came ashore in Washington yesterday, accompanied by rotating thunderstorms that had the potential to unleash tornadoes.

At one point late Tuesday afternoon, four separate tornado warnings were in effect for coastal Washington. There have been no confirmed tornado touchdowns in Washington so far but an EF-0 twister did hit coastal Oregon Tuesday, causing minor damage.

Tornadoes are rare in this area, though every once in awhile a strong Pacific storm can set off a tornado.

Here's a video of the incredible coastal waves in Spain caused by that storm and the very high pressure to the north:

Florida Storm Floods Big Time, Brings Odd Tornado Scare

Flooding at the Fort Lauderdale airport last night. 

As I mentioned yesterday, most of the nation is having quiet Christmas week weather, but not sunny Florida, which at the moment isn't so sunny.

Parts of the state got hit by some big time flash flooding overnight. It was so bad it temporarily blocked access to the Fort Lauderdale airport.

The flooding was mostly concentrated between Miami and Fort Lauderdale, with rainfall amounts outside thar area being not as bad. Where it rained hardest, though, the rain was incredible.

Hallandale, Florida reported 12.8 inches of rain. Fort Lauderdale itself had about eight inches of rain.

The downpours hit in a very short amount of time, which made the flash flooding worse. The Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport had 4.45 inches of rain in just an hour. For comparison's sake this area normally gets about two inches of rain during the entire month of December. It's normally the dry season in South Florida about now.

Access roads to the airport were closed, and a lot of flights were delayed.  The airport has since reopened, but the water flood had been replaced by a flood of traffic from cars originally blocked from being allowed in. A number of homes and businesses were flooded in the region.

Meanwhile, in the Florida Keys, residents and tourists hunkered down as rare tornado warnings were issued. Supercell thunderstorms came ashore in that area, carrying the risk of strong waterspouts that would turn into a risk of strong tornadoes down there.

Waterspouts are common around the Keys, but almost always, they stay offshore and weak. This was a totally different scenario with the nearly Midwest-style supercells creating a risk of stronger twisters.

So far, though, there have been no official reports of any tornado touchdowns.

The storm is moving northeast into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.  Flooding is especially likely to hit coastal South Carolina today.

Early this morning, rain and high tides had already blocked sections of 26 streets and roads in Charleston, South Carolina.

The storm will then go safely out to sea and not affect the rest of the Eastern Seaboard.

Here's a news report from the Fort Lauderdale airport:

No Storm, But "King Tide" Floods Miami, Other Areas

King tide flooding Sunday in Coconut Grove, Florida.
Photo by Daniel Varela, Miami Herald. 

It was a beautiful, sunny but hot day in Miami Sunday.  It hasn't rained there in days and there were no storms or tropical systems anywhere near southeast Florida.

Yet high tides flooded streets and parking lots and other areas in and around Miami, despite the lack of storms.

Welcome to king tides, now made much more noticeable by climate change.

King tides are higher than normal tides that come certain times of the year during full or new moons. In recent years, due to a combination of factors, these tides are increasingly causing minor flooding up and down the East Coast. Southeast Florida is one epicenter of this phenomenon, as are places like Charleston, South Carolina and Norfolk, Virginia.

In general the Southeastern coast is prone to king tides. Not only is the sea level rising, but the land is sinking, so that's a double whammy.

These king tides are known as nuisance floods because they get in the way but don't cause much in the way of immediate damage. But salt water infiltrates aquifers, and the salt water can damage cars, foundations and other property.

On top of that, if you get flooding on a nice sunny day, imagine what would happen if a hurricane was roaring up the coast during a king tide. Combine that with a storm surge and you get real trouble.

And of course these nuisance king tide floods are getting more frequent as sea levels rise.

According to Climate Central:

"From 2005 to 2015, the median annual frequency of flooding days more than doubled along the stretch of coast from Florida to North Carolina, according to an analysis by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The coast between Virginia and Maine saw a median increase of 75 percent during the same period."

That specter probably also makes people think twice about living near the coast.

Another trouble with king tides is that now they're flooding neighborhoods. When the tide goes out, the water takes fertilizers from lawns, septic tank ickiness and other debris back into Biscayne Bay, increasing pollution there, notes the Miami Herald.

Volunteers on Sunday waded into the king tides Sunday to collect water samples to study how this pollution is moving and affecting coastal waters, says the Miami Herald.

The king tides are continuing today, with coastal flood advisories and statements in effect from Florida to Long Island, New York.

Here's a video of king tide flooding in Key West, Florida this past Friday. Again, notice the lack of storminess and calm winds:

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/rising-tides-near-daily-flooding-americas-shorelines-21935

Bahamas Tropical Storm Nightmare, South Dakota Flood, Vermont Wind

Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 building steam this morning near the Bahamas
and likely to become Tropical Storm Humberto within a couple days.

This is so, so NOT what the northern Bahamas needs.

Things are still in full crisis mode in the devastated northern islands of the Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian a couple weeks back.

Now, the same area is under a tropical storm warning. 

Normally, the Bahamas can manage a "mere" tropical storm, but torrential rains and winds in excess of 39 mph are going to make a terrible situation worse.

The culprit is something now called "Potential Tropical Cyclone #9." This is the National Hurricane Center's way of alerting the public to a near-term threat from a developing system that hasn't quite made it to tropical storm intensity. Yet.

Forecasts for Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 are still all over the place, but it appears, just like Dorian, it will slowly, grindingly head through the Bahamas and probably near the Florida east coast. The only good news is it won't be a Category 5 hurricane. Chances are, it will stay below hurricane strength.

But Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 will probably bring a prolonged period of gusty winds and heavy rain to the Bahamas, and a tropical storm warning is out for many of those islands, including the ones hardest hit by Dorian.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for much the Florida east coast this weekend.

Given the uncertain forecast for the path of this wannabe tropical storm, I'm sure there will be updates and changes to its expected impacts.

SOUTH DAKOTA FLOODS

South Dakota cannot seem to catch a break this year. Or last year even.

Last year was among the wettest on record in parts of South Dakota. This year is even wetter. All this was made worse by widespread downpours this week.  A large part of southeastern South Dakota received four to as much as ten inches of rain in 48 hours earlier this week.

This is in addition to the the three tornadoes that blasted through Sioux Falls, South Dakota the other day.

Widespread flooding is occurring in South Dakota.  Parts of the Big Sioux River reached record high levels. The previous highest flood along the river near Dell Rapids was set just a few months ago in March, the Sioux Falls Argus Leader reports.

Parts of Interstate 90 in eastern South Dakota also shut down because of flooding. Much of the town of Madison was under water Thursday after six to 10 inches of rain fell in the area.

Sioux Falls has had 34 inches of rain so far this year. Normally, only 20 inches or so should have fallen by now.  It's been so wet that parts of the James River between Huron and Yankton have been continuously above flood stage since March.

Video of Madison, South Dakota is at the bottom of this post.

VERMONT WIND

Once we get into autumn, cold fronts and storms can cause relatively strong winds in Vermont, especially when south winds funnel up the Champlain Valley.

This type of thing looks like it will happen late Friday night and Saturday, when gusts in the Champlain Valley could reach 45 mph.

Leaves are still on the trees, obviously. In strong winds, the leaves act like little sails, catching the wind and bending branches more than if the foliage was already on the ground. This makes it more likely we'll see a few scattered trees and branches down and a few spot power failures.

This won't be a major event - no big destruction with this. But don't be surprised if your yard is littered with twigs and branches by Saturday evening.

VIDEO:

Here's a drone video of serious flooding in Madison, South Dakota:

Dorian Traumatizes Bahamas By Sitting There For Nearly Two Days

Astronaut Nick Hague took this photo of the eye of Hurricane Dorian
on Monday.

Hurricanes stall out and become stationary sometimes.

But I'm not aware of anything like Dorian, which has sat near one island in the Bahamas for something like 30 hours, all the while subjecting the people there to an incredible storm surge and devastating winds.

I really worry about the psychology of the survivors. Anytime someone experiences a category 4 or 5 hurricane, it's traumatic. But the worst of the storm is usually over within several hours and people an then go about the business of picking up the pieces. 

That's terrible, but not as bad as the Bahamas.

Storm surges, sometimes in excess of 20 feet, lingered all day. So did winds exceeding 100 mph. Videos emerged of people trapped in attics. Of storm surges coming into the second floor of a home. Of an airport that looked like a view of the open sea, hundreds of miles from shore.

At last report there were five confirmed deaths in the Bahamas, but I'm sure that toll will rise dramatically as people will finally be able to get in and assess things once Dorian finally starts moving away later today.

More videos at the bottom of this post.

I have to say the National Hurricane Center has been an amazingly steady hand in the extremely difficult, high-stakes forecasting for Hurricane Dorian. 

Had Dorian been way out over the Atlantic Ocean, 1,000 miles from land, it wouldn't make that much of a difference how long it stalled, or when it decided to turn north.

This situation is much more scary.  When it turns north will determine whether Florida gets a terrible disaster or just a glancing blow. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center are critical for emergency managers to determine who evacuates and who doesn't.

Too few evacuations could mean deaths. Too many are an expensive inconvenience. So far, the NWS forecasts have been spot on.  Donald Trump's criticism notwithstanding.

Trump caused some confusion when he said Alabama was being targeted. That was an error, because when he said that, Alabama was under no threat and the National Weather Service in Birmingham felt compelled to put out a statement telling Alabamans to chill and not worry about Dorian.

Of course, media reports of this hiccup were blasted as fake news by Trump, and his supporters blasted the National Weather Service for, um, being accurate.

But all this is a sideshow. I'll go with what the scientists say

The meteorologists (scientists) at National Hurricane Center continues to believe Dorian will start a northwestward, then northerly course later today. They're still not expecting it to come ashore in Florida, but that doesn't mean the Sunshine State will avoid bad weather. Not at all.

But at least there's a good chance that the strongest hurricane force winds will remain offshore. Still, there will be gusty winds, damaging waves and storm surges and the risk of heavy rain.

Plus, we still don't know exactly how close Dorian will get to Georgia and the Carolinas and strong the storm will be at that point.

It does look like Dorian will miss New England, except maybe clip Cape Cod and the islands with rough seas and gusty winds.

An overview from the Washington Post:



Storm surge inside a house:

Worst Nightmare Comes True: Dorian Razes N. Bahamas; Florida Fears Continue

Your daily dose of Hurricane Dorian. Here it is this morning, slamming
the northern Bahamas. Outer rain bands are beginning to affect Florida
with gusty showers and beach erosion.

An EF-4 tornado, which has winds of between 166 and 200 mph, would severely damage or destroy your house, even though a tornado only lasts at most a few minutes in any one location.

Now imagine such a tornado sitting over your house for most of the day.

That's basically what the northern Bahamas have been experiencing yesterday and today as incredible Category 5 Dorian basically sits and churns in place.  

Images coming out of the Bahamas, most of them taken while the relatively calm eye of Dorian was over the Abaco Islands, are heartbreaking.

very structure was badly damaged by then, and the people in the wreckage faced many more hours of extreme winds after the eye passed.

Cars were thrown around like leaves on a breezy autumn afternoon.  The formerly lush landscape, now stripped of leaves, looked more bleak than a dark, foggy, cold Vermont November day. Dorian's storm surge looked more like a tsunami.

In the eye of the storm, terrified residents somehow found their way to Twitter, begging people to pray for them. It's all too much.

Videos are at the bottom of this post, in case you need proof.

Dorian was, and is, incredible.  With sustained winds of 185 mph Sunday, it was the furthest north an Atlantic Category 5 has gotten east of the Gulf of Mexico. That's what you get when the ocean water is so warm. Warmer than normal, possibly in part due to climate change.

Dorian's winds had fallen to "only" 165 mph as the storm sat and spun over Grand Bahama Island overnight and this morning, with pretty much no forward movement. Freeport in the Bahamas expected sustained winds of 100 mph for 12 to 18 straight hours.

The National Hurricane Center pleaded with Bahama residents not to venture outside in the calm eye of the storm. When the hurricane moves just a little, the extreme winds would suddenly be back, killing anyone who was outdoors.

Now there's Florida. The National Hurricane Center and most forecasters are still confident that after its long stall over the Bahamas, Dorian will turn north, taking advantage of a weak spot in a high pressure system that had steered the storm into the Bahamas.

But Dorian's turn north will come perilously close to the Florida east coast. Actually closer to the coast than some of the more optimistic forecasts earlier this weekend. Some computer models are insisting on bringing Dorian ashore somewhere in eastern Florida.

It's a nail biter, for sure.

Even if Dorian doesn't make it ashore, its dangerous eyewall, where the strongest winds are located, could brush along parts of the Florida east coast. Hurricane and storm surge warnings are in effect for most of the central east coast of Florida.

Already, there is some beach erosion and gusty winds in eastern Florida. Stuart, Florida reported a gust to 54 mph from an outer Dorian rain band this morning.

There are signs that Dorian might be going through something called an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. This is common in strong hurricanes and I'm surprised it didn't happen with Dorian sooner. Eyewall replacement cycles tend to decrease the top wind speeds in a hurricane, which is good. But it also expands the area experiencing strong winds. Which of course is bad, especially for Florida in this case.

Then Dorian will brush past Georgia and the Carolinas, risking more trouble and damage. They're already evacuating people from coastal locations in those states.

True, in a couple, few days, Dorian will not be as strong as it was and is over the Bahamas, it will still be a powerful, dangerous hurricane. We're only halfway through this drama.

Videos:

One of the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas during the eye of the storm Sunday. Notice how the cars had been tossed around as if a toddler had a tantrum with his Matchbox cars




Another video, probably taken during the eye of the storm. It's an apartment building or motel, with its roof gone, debris inside with people inside, too. Then a walk down the hallway to see the extreme storm surge outdoors:



Dorian's storm surge looked more like a tsunami:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/021224.shtml

Social Media Notwithstanding, Things Are NOT Chill With Hurricane Dorian

Category 5 Hurricane Dorian in an incredibly awesome
satellite shot this morning

Hurricane Dorian continued to be an extremely dangerous storm. As of this morning, it has been upgraded as a worst case Category 5 storm, with sustained winds of 160 mph, says the National Hurricane Center. Yes, it managed to strengthen even more overnight. It's slowly churning its way into the northern Bahamas.

By the way, Dorian makes this the first known time there have been Category 5 storms in the eastern Atlantic on four consecutive years.

The tone on some of social media yesterday was, "Oh, this is great. Dorian is going to miss Florida, and might miss the Carolinas. All is good."

Not so fast.

First of all, we need to deal with the Bahamas. We'll get into Florida a bit further down in this post, and things aren't all that rosy in the Sunshine State.

A hurricane this strong is bad enough. When it stalls and sits over pretty much one spot, like Dorian is likely to, it's exponentially worse. You saw the destruction Hurricane Michael caused in the Florida Panhandle last year.

Michael was moving right along, and unleashed the bulk of its destruction in just a few hours.

Imagine having to deal with 100 mph sustained winds for 30 straight hours, like Freeport in the Bahamas could experience. The longer the winds blow, the more opportunity for things to blow away and people to get hurt or killed.

Granted, buildings in the Bahamas are often basically concrete fortresses to ward off hurricanes, but they can only take so much. Plus the couple feet of rain or more they are going to have to deal with isn't easy, either.

Now, let's get into Florida. As I've kept saying all week with Dorian, forecasting the track of a hurricane isn't easy. It's especially difficult when steering currents collapse, as is happening with Dorian. That's why it's stalling out in the Bahamas.

Dorian was moving steadily westward, propelled by a high pressure system north of it. So at least the storm had some sort of meteorological "guidance" that made it comparatively easy to predict where it was going.

Now, Dorian is entering an area with no strong steering currents. Subtle little features in the atmosphere can play a big role in where Dorian goes. And since Dorian is going to get so close to the Florida coast, there's no room for error. But there will surely be errors in forecasting, because this is such a difficult situation to predict. Every mile counts as to how badly this will affect Florida.

The forecast still has Dorian making a hard right turn Tuesday and Wednesday, moving northward offshore, parallel to the Florida coast.

But what if that right turn happens just a little later than currently forecast? In that case, Dorian could still come ashore in eastern Florida as a major hurricane. That's not the official forecast, but the National Hurricane Center still has eastern Florida in the so-called "cone of uncertainty."

That means the NHC is acknowledging that Florida could still be in play here.

Even if Hurricane Dorian somehow behaves exactly as forecasters think it will (Ha!) the central east coast of Florida is in for a nasty few days.

There's a tropical storm warning for that region, and meteorologists have upgraded the wind forecast for populated areas like West Palm Beach, Melbourne, Port St. Lucie and Palm Bay. Winds there could go to 74 to 110 mph, especially if Dorian nudges just a few miles closer to the coast than currently expected.

As Dorian is a slow mover, this part of Florida might endure at least tropical storm conditions from late tonight into Wednesday. That's a long time to have to deal with this.

We won't even get into the threat in the Carolinas later in the week. That's still definitely in play.

Dorian has probably reached peak intensity this morning. You'll probably hear starting today and going into Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday that Dorian is "weakening" so everything's OK, right.

Or not. True, it will probably weaken. Winds with Dorian three days from now might "only" be, say, 120 mph. That's still a problem, isn't it?

I don't mean to be Mr. Gloom and Doom, because there's still a great chance this won't be a worst case scenario for anywhere in the United States. But people in the areas to be affected by the storm should not let their guard down. It could still be a helluva ride.

Worries Grow As Dorian Continues Targeting Florida

Bigger and meaner. Dorian looking larger and more intense
than it did yesterday or the day before.

Hurricane Dorian, becoming more and more formitable, continues on a path that continues to look like it will smash Florida.

Chances are now very high that it will come ashore as a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, with winds of up to 140 mph, devastating storm surges and torrential rains which will cause severe inland flooding.

Yep, another disaster is in the works. 

The National Hurricane Center this morning said Dorian had top winds of 110 mph and forecasters say all kinds of factors are at play to make the storm strengthen more.

The water Dorian is passing over is very warm. Upper level winds are light, which hurricanes like.  Early in its life, Dorian battled dry air. The air surrounding Dorian keeps getting more humid the further west it goes. 

Regarding the track, computer models have been "windshield wipering," as they say, for the past couple of days and that might continue. By this I mean, forecasts have Dorian coming ashore further south, then north, then south in or near Florida. This kind of "windshield wipering" is common with forecasts leading up to a major hurricane.

Really, it doesn't matter that much in precisely what city Dorian comes ashore at.  It will cause big problems over a wide area of Florida. This is true even if Dorian manages to curve north just along or off the east coast of Florida, as a small minority of computer models indicate.

Here's a few other things to consider with Dorian:

Coastal flooding, in small part tied to Dorian, is already happening in the Southeast. The new moon is causing "King Tides" which are higher than normal tides created by the position of the moon.  Climate change has contributed to sea level rise, so King Tides have been routinely causing flooding in places like Miami and Charleston, South Carolina.

Easterly winds created by high pressure that's steering Dorian toward Florida and pushing even more water up against the shore from Miami to Cape Hatteras. Damaging coastal floods are starting to occur even though Dorian is nowhere near the United States yet. 

In the "here we go again" department, it looks like there's a good chance that Dorian's forward motion could slow down dramatically in or near Florida. That would prolong the torrential rains and surges and wind from Dorian. That would also worsen inland flooding. It seems we're going through these hurricane "stalls" a lot lately, what with the slow motion of Hurricanes Harvey, Florence and Matthew in recent years.

If you know anyone living in Florida, tell them to get ready if they haven't already.  Dorian at this point is expected to make landfall on Monday.  Tropical force winds and rain could arrive as early as Saturday, so things should be getting done now.

And for gawd's sake if the emergency managers tell you to evacuate, go. Don't ride this out. I'm sure evacuation notices will start flying today if they haven't already, so be ready to leave if you're in the hurricane zone.

I suppose it's possible Dorian could unexpectedly weaken before reaching Florida, or take a surprise turn away. But the chances of that happening look pretty slim at this point.

One last thought: Some long range forecasting models bring Dorian or its remains to eastern New England in about a week. That's speculation at this point, but we'll eventually have to watch and see what happens in that regard.

Dorian Mostly Misses Puerto Rico, But Florida Might Be Screwed

Healthy looking Hurricane Dorian, now well north of Puerto Rico
as seen here Thursday morning. 

Hurricane Dorian went through quite a strengthening phase on Wednesday, becoming a hurricane at least two days before most forecasters expected it to.

That it largely missed Puerto Rico is obviously good, since Dorian's peak winds had increased to 85 mph.  Not a lot of new destruction there.

But Dorian didn't interact with land, which means it stayed strong and has a great shot of getting stronger. Florida is still in its sights.

Dorian is still fighting off dry air trying to intrude. A bit of that dry air did get to the core of the storm overnight. But the National Hurricane Center warns that Dorian has a lot going for it. Relatively strong upper level winds, which can squelch hurricanes, are forecast to weaken.

Dorian is over very warm water and will remain over the toasty H2O for the rest of its journey.  That's a recipe for strengthening, and the NHC says rapid strengthening is possible over the next couple of days.

Strength forecasts for hurricanes are very tricky. Anything could happen. But the National Hurricane Center says Dorian could come ashore in Florida with winds of 125 mph - a major, destructive hurricane. Like we need another one, after Harvey, Florence, Irma and Michael over the past couple of years caused so many billions of dollars in damage in the United States.

High pressure to the north is still forecast to keep Hurricane Dorian heading to the northwest, then west toward Florida. The path is still iffy.  And nobody is sure where on the east coast of Florida Dorian might hit. Some models take it to near the Georgia/Florida border. Other models take it as far south as Miami. So the whole state is in play.

The timing now suggests that the worst of Dorian would hit Florida on Monday - Labor Day.

Predictably but wisely, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency, which funnels money and resourses to local governments and emergency managers to get ready for the storm, as The Weather Channel notes. 

People in Florida are spooked and getting ready for the storm. In Orlando, bottled water has already been cleared from shelves by shoppers preparing for Dorian. Lines for gasoline are really long.

However, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says retailers have ordered extra supplies to be available in the days leading up the the hurricane, and gas supplies are still good.

Some coastal flooding is likely well in advance of Dorian, especially around Miami.  Seasonal king tides, will cause some flooding, and the approaching hurricane might help to push a little extra water ashore.

Another thing to note. If Hurricane Dorian hits south Florida, it would eventually emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. That would create a risk Dorian could gather itself up again, organize and become a threat to the Gulf Coast. We'll see.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin fizzled off the United States East Coast. As expected, it contributed to some heavy rain in eastern New England, but there fortunately wasn't a lot of flooding.

Here in Vermont, Erin contributed a bit of moisture to a slow moving cold front, so we benefitted from some decent showers.

Possible Bad News With Tropical Storms Dorian, Erin

Tropical Storm Dorian east of Puerto Rico early this morning. It's
looking more organized than it did yesterday.

As expected, forecasts keep shifting for Tropical Storm Dorian, and as of now, the news is worse for Florida, which could end up taking a nasty hit.

Land interaction, which could have potentially killed Dorian if it went over Puerto Rico or especially the Dominican Republic.  

Now it looks like Tropical Storm Dorian will just clip eastern Puerto Rico before head northwest into warm, open waters, where it could strengthen. That means it won't be over land long enough to get destroyed.

Top sustained winds with Dorian this morning were up to 60 mph, and the Natonal Hurricane Center says the storm definitely looks better organized than yesterday.

Dorian is going to cause problems in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. Puerto Rico is especially vulnerable. Their electrical system is still a mess after Hurricane Maria two years ago. Tropical storm force winds will be enough to wreck the lines once again.

Even more so than yesterday, Florida had better watch out for Dorian. It will be mostly over open water as it moves northwest, then west toward Florida, as it stands now.

Very often, a tropical storm or a hurricane heading northwest near Puerto Rico will curve harmlessly out to sea. But a large high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean looks like it will get in the way, steering Dorian westward toward Florida.

The National Hurricane Center says computer models have Dorian strengthening into a hurricane by Friday and remaining a potentially strong hurricane as it nears the northeast Florida coast on Monday. The NHC also says the hurricane would grow larger in size with time before it hits Florida.

This of course is a preliminary forecast, and the eventual path and strength of Dorian could end up being very different from current forecasts.

But if this prediction stays on track, this would be a rare hurricane hit for northeast Florida. The coastline there sort of curves inward, and hurricanes tend to hit either further south in Florida, or up the coast in the Carolinas.  This one could be serious, and we need to keep an eye on it.

TROPICAL STORM ERIN

That tropical depression off the East Coast yesterday has strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin. It only has sustained winds of 40 mph and won't get much stronger, says the National Hurricane Center. It will also stay well off the East Coast and eventually come ashore somewhere near Nova Scotia late Thursday or early Friday.

So no problem, right?

In this case, wrong. Or at least kinda wrong. A cold front that will give us showers here in Vermont later today will keep trucking deeper into New England. That will draw tropical moisture from Erin northwestward into eastern New England.

Flash flood watches are up for eastern Maine, coastal New Hampshire, eastern and central Massachusetts and Rhode Island later today and tonight. The worst downpours will be hit and miss, but a few spots could get four or five inches of rain in a short period of time, so that's a problem.

Rainfall might be locally  heavy in southeastern Vermont, too, but it likely won't be bad enough to cause any issues.

Right On Cue, Tropical Atlantic Bubbling Up With Possible Storms

Thunderstorms bubble on Friday off the east coast of Florida. This
will probably turn into a tropical storm. Image via NOAA/RAMMB

The oceans always know what season it is.

In the Atlantic Ocean, late August is often the time when tropical storms and potential hurricanes really start to ramp up toward their September peak.

It looks like this year is no exception. The Atlantic Ocean is suddenly bubbling with at least potential activity. Right now, there are no dire threats, but there are things to watch.

We mentioned weak Tropical Storm Chantal a couple days ago.  It dissipated as expected. Its remains are several hundred miles west of the Azore Islands. It could possibly redevelop, but I wouldn't worry about that right now.

What is a bit more worrisome is a developing storm that the National Hurricane Center said this morning was over southern Florida. Over land, things don't develop into tropical storms. But this little storm is expected to move northeastward off the east central Florida coast, where it could easily turn into a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center gives this area of thunderstorms a 90 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm in the next few days.

You do have to watch tropical storms and wannabe hurricanes near the Florida east coast.They can come north and affect us here in New England. In this case, though, it looks like this wannabe tropical storm will want to move northeast, and stay well off the East Coast.

It could turn into a hurricane out there, so there will probably be some high surf issues on East Coast beaches in the coming days. This thing could also brush southeastern Canada. We'll see.

The wannabe hurricane might also help to stall a cold front midweek approaching from the Great Lakes. That would possibly delay or prolong a period of showery weather around Wednesday up here in Vermont. Again, we'll see how that turns out. It's so uncertain now.

There's another area of disturbed weather way out in the central Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. It is heading west to northwest and has a pretty high chance of turning into another tropical storm

This path eventually toward the Caribbean is a classic one for peak season tropical storms and hurricanes.  It's not clear how well this thing will develop, or even whether it will hold together as it possibly nears the Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,  Cuba and maybe Florida many, many days from now.

I can't see an immediate threat from this, but it needs to be watched carefully over the next week or two.

Harrowing Hurricane Michael 911 Calls Tell Us Why To Evacuate In Hurricanes

LeClaire Bryan, in red shirt, mother of country singer Luke Bryan, is
overwhelmed after seeing her home, wrecked by Hurricane Michael
last October. Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to its official start on Saturday, June 1. Already, we've had brief Subtropical Storm Andrea, and there is some sort of tropical system trying to bubble up off the southern Mexican coast.

Despite all the predictions, we can't tell for sure how this hurricane season will play out. After the 2017 and 2018 seasons, we can only hope this year is a dud. That's only hope, though.

To give you a preview of how harrowing these hurricanes are, the Tampa Bay Times put out an article and released audio of 911 calls at the height of Hurricane Michael last October in the Florida panhandle.  

They're hard to read and even harder to listen to. But you ought to, as they give you a very good motivation to do what meteorologists and emergency managers tell you to do in a weather emergency, be it a hurricane, tornado, flood, winter storm, or whatever other bad stuff comes our way.

You can listen to some parts of the calls in the videos at the bottom of this post, but even the text is scary. People were calling 911, but no paramedics, no ambulance, no firefighters, no police could come to the rescue. The winds were too relentless, too powerful, too dangerous.

Says the Tampa Bay Times:

"A man stuck in a collapsing trailer begged for help. 'Please come get me, ma'am.'  The dispatcher broke down, sobbing. A colleague took over for her. 'Sweetie, I would come and get you right now if I could, I swear. I need you to just stay with me.'"

The man later cries out, "Oh my God, help me please!"  The dispatchers could do nothing but urge him to find a (probably nonexistent) interior room in the trailer.

Another 911 caller said, "There's 10 of us in here and the roof's gone."  The dispatcher could only tell the to move into an interior space near a load bearing wall. The dispatcher said the calm eye of the storm would move over the caller's location in minutes, but the 10 people had to stay put anyway. There was no time to flee to another shelter before the winds came roaring back.

Another caller was outside, in the terrible storm, on the phone tellling dispatchers a man - his neighbor - had collapsed. He didn't think he was breathing.  Didn't know if the man's heart was still beating. Dispatchers tried to coach the caller with CPR and mouth to mouth resuscitation.  The caller tried.

We later learn the man who collapsed didn't make it.  The 911 caller who tried to help the dying man survived.

It's unclear what happened to the man in the collapsed trailer, or the ten people in the roofless house.

All this is to say: Even if the storm doesn't look bad on paper, that you think you'll be fine, do what the weather people and the emergency workers tell you. If they told you to leave, do it.   If they tell you to hunker down, do it. If they tell you to hide in the basement, do it. If they tell you the roads are too dangerous to drive on, stay home.

The hardest part of all this to take is reading the comments section of the Tampa Bay Times article. As many commenters pointed out, lots of people don't have the money or the means to evacuate. So they hunker down and pray for the best. I wish we were better at making all socio-economic classes safe in emergencies.

Here are some of the audio tapes. They should all scare you straight. Remember them the  next time you face a weather emergency, be it a hurricane or anything else.

The first one is the man in the collapsing trailer, and the sobbing dispatcher and the rising panic in the man's voice, as the trailer blows away and he's out in the storm. I wish I knew what happened to him. Listen:



This next one is the 10 people in the roofless house. The caller asks if they can make a run for it when the eye comes. Should they try piling into a four-wheel drive vehicle and go somewhere?   The dispatcher adamantly (and correctly) urges them to stay put in an interior room, even though the roof is goine. Load bearing walls would help. Still sounds awfully scary, though:



Finally, this one is the caller trying to help the dying man with coaching from 911 dispatchers:

Cuba Tornado Might Have Been Strongest On Record For That Nation

Cars were tossed around and many buildings damaged or destroyed
from a rare EF4 tornado that touched down last Sunday in Havana, Cuba.

Cuba is used to hurricanes. They get them fairly frequently.

But tornadoes?

Little twisters happen from time to time in Cuba, as they do in much of the world. But the powerful tornado that swept through Havana Sunday was something else.

It killed four people and injured 200.  The Cuban government said no fewer than 123 homes were destroyed, and at least 1,100 houses were destroyed.  Radar from Key West, Florida indicated debris was lifted 20,000 feet into the air by the tornado.

The tornado was a powerful EF4, with winds of up to 186 mph. An EF4 tornado is the second strongest possible in a five-point scale.  Only one other EF4 tornado is known to have hit Cuba. That one was in 1940.

To put it in perspective, the United States is the tornado capital of the world, and this nation only gets a handful of EF4 tornadoes yearly. In 2018, there were no tornadoes in the United States that strong.

The same storm system that created the Havana tornado also spun off a much weaker tornado in Hileah, Florida.

This has been an intense week for tornadoes on the world stage. Five tornadoes touched down in Turkey a few days ago, including one that moved airliners and overturned buses at an airport.

Here's a news report of the tornado from Havana:

Tsunamis Can Actually Be Created By Weather

People run as a meteotsunami crashes shore on Captiva
Island, Florida on Friday

A lot of us have read in horror about the tsunami that swept through an Indonesian seaside town over the weekend during a rock concern on the beach. The disaster killed nearly 400 people. 

Unlike the overwhelming majority of tsunamis, this one wasn't created by an earthquake. Instead, it looks like a volcano erupted, triggering a huge landslide on one side of the volcano, which then plunged into the sea.

This in turn created the huge waves that caused so much death and destruction and sorrow this weekend in Indonesia.

As noted, almost all tsunamis are created by earthquakes. The earth thrusts during a a big tremor, and that lifts a vast amount of water. When this mass of water nears shore, it encounters shallower water, so it builds up into immense waves that create these big disasters.

Weather can also create tsunamis of sorts, but luckily they're almost never as bad as the ones induced by earthquakes. Still they can cause a lot of damage.

On Friday, one such tsunami hit Captiva and Sanibel islands  Florida. These are called meteotsunamis.

I'll let NOAA explain what they are:

"Meteotsunamis are large wave that scientists are just beginning to better understand. Unlike tsunamis triggered by seismic activity, meteotsunamis are driven by air pressure differences often associated with fast-moving weather events such as severe thunderstorms, squalls and other storm fronts. The storm generates a wave that moves towards the shore, and is amplified by a shallow continental shelf, bay or other coastal feature."

That's what happened Friday at Captiva Island, Florida. A powerful squall line associated with that strong storm slammed into the western shore of the Sunshine State Friday. The squall line surged water ahead of it, and when the wave encountered shallower water off Captiva Island, the wave piled up, then crashed ashore.

The Captiva Island meteotsunami caused damage, but it wasn't the worst one ever.  Says NOAA: "Meteotsunamis have been observed to reach heights of six feet or more. They occur in many places around the world, including the Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Coast and the Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas."

Even where they do sometimes occur, meteotsunamis do surprise people.   A squall line on May 15 caused an unusually severe outbreak of tornadoes and high winds in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.

The tornadoes of course dominated the news, but the pressure changes associated with the squall line were intense enough to cause a meteo-tsunami along the coast from Connecticut to Maryland. This wasn't a damaging tsunami, as waves never got above 10 inches over normal high tides. But it was an unusual event, proving the atmosphere can influence the vast oceans as well.

Florida seems particularly prone to meteotsunmis. Perhaps one of the worst meteotsuamis in U.S history hit during the massive "Storm Of The Century" blizzard of March, 1993. As areas from Georgia to Maine were buried in up to three feet of snow, a squall line associated with the storm slammed into western Florida, causing a destructive meteotsunami.

A year earlier, a meteotsunami injured 75 people in Daytona Beach, Florida. Other ones hit in 2014 and 2016.

Most meteotsunamis aren't this destructive.  The vast majority are too small for most people to notice, but are picked up by tidal and water level guages.

There's another related phenomenon called a seiche. That's when strong winds, often shifting, push water in a lake onto one shore, then the water sloshes back to the other side, much like water can slosh in a bathtub if you move around too much.

Seiches, like meteotsunamis, can easily cause shoreline flooding.

Here's video of the meteotsunami in Florida on Friday. As you can see, they an be quite dramatic:

Are Swept Away Building Sites Gravestones From Hurricane Michael?

Dozens upon dozens of homes and businesses swept away in
Mexico Beach, Florida after Hurricane Michael

SATURDAY P.M. UPDATE

Some rather hopeful news from Reuters:

Searchers are really beginning to dig deeper into the nook and crannies in the worst of the Hurricane Michael zone and finding plenty of survivors

More than 500 of the roughly 2,100 people reported missing have been found alive. Officials expect to find many more survivors over the weekend.

Many of the missing were simply cut off by debris, wrecked homes, and cellular service cut off  by the storm.

Roughly 1,700 search and rescue workers were combing the wreckage this weekend. When they find survivors, they take pictures of them and forward the photos to worried relatives to ease their minds, Reuters said. .

Some of the stories are still harrowing, though. As Reuters reports:

"Rescue crews heard cries for help and cut into a mobile home crumpled by the storm in Panama City, freeing survivors who had been trapped inside for two days, Matthew Marchetti, co-founder of the Houston-based CrowdSource Rescue, said on Saturday."

This tells me the search is still definitely a rescue mission more than a body recovery mission, which is a good thing. Unfortunately, the death toll is still expected to rise, however.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

One of the most haunting images I've been seeing from the areas of Florida wiped out by Hurricane Michael are the swept-clean concrete slabs.

Aerial photos and videos show dozens and dozens of these flat slabs in Mexico Beach, Florida and elsewhere.

Each slab is where a house, condo, business or other building stood. The winds and storm surge swept everything away. You'd never know buildings stood there, save for those thin, flat slabs.

I'm getting more and more worried those slabs are symbolic gravestones. How many people stayed behind along the coast as Hurricane Michael roared in? And how many died?

At last check the death toll from Hurricane Michael was 17. Those deaths hit from Florida to Virginia, where Michael's last swipe unleashed high winds, tornadoes and flash flooding. The death toll of 17 is terrible, but seems relatively modest for a storm that ferocious.

But there are increasing signs that possibly, a lot more people died, which makes this whole story even more tragic.

There is so much debris and destruction in Mexico Beach and surrounding towns that relief workers and searchers are only just beginning to arrive and poke through the rubble.  If people died, I'm not sure they will ever find the bodies. Were they swept out to sea in the departing storm surge toward the end of the hurricane? Are they lost in the broken logs and sticks that before Michael were dense pine forests just inland?

ABC News reported yesterday there are a "tremendous number" of people still unaccounted for after the hurricane. Perhaps some of them are safe, scattered in shelters across the Southeast with no decent post-storm cell phone service to tell relatives where they are. That would be the best case scenario.

There are extreme challenges in the search for the dead and injured, Bay County, Florida Emergency Services Chief Mark Bowen told ABC on Friday. 

"Fire stations are destroyed, police stations are destroyed... Public safety agencies are only taking highest priority calls right now -- heart attacks, you know, major trauma. An enormous amount of 911 calls are going unresponded to because we've got this priority to search and rescue. So it's a terrible thing."

The Associated Press reported that one body had been found in Mexico Beach. But in one glimmer of hope, the AP says authorities have canceled plans, at least for now, to set up a temporary morgue to handle casualties. That suggests there might not be a huge number of deceased.

This is one of the most grim weather blog posts I have written, but it is facts, and we have to deal with them.

Here's a heartbreaking Washington Post video of Mexico Beach, showing the destruction, interviews with shell-shocked residents, all with the haunting background sounds of dozens of alarms blaring in shattered buildings:

Storm Chasers Capture Horror Of Hurricane Michael in Florida

The blue house was lifted off pilings where it had been on the right side
of this road. It was pushed across the Mexico Beach road and into a
larger condominium across the street. Photo via Twitter, @SimonStormRider

Simon Brewer and Juston Drake of StormChasingVideo on YouTube have what is perhaps the most horrifying video yet of Hurricane Michael in Mexico Beach, Florida, where it made landfall

The video, which you'll see below, just shows the enormous power of the wind and what it can do. I'm speechless.

In one clip of the aftermath, I think I found the blue house that ABC meterologist Ginger Zee lost as a storm surge ripped the house for its mooring and rolled it past her condo and into the abyss of wind and rain.

The Brewer/Drake video show the blue house sitting in the middle of the main street through Mexico Beach.

I think the most haunting images, actually the sound, are clips they took in the immediate aftermath of Michael. All the smoke and burglar alarms are going off in the shattered houses and buildings around them. It is incredibly eerie.

 Here's the stunning video:

Category 4 Hurricane Matthew A Dangerous Worst Case Scenario

Satellite view of extremely powerful Hurricane Michael as
it approached the Florida Panhandle this morning. 

I was a little worried yesterday that Hurricane Michael might end up being more powerful than forecast.

Unfortuately, it's more powerful than expected. Much more powerful.

Hurricane Michael was a Category 4 storm with top winds of 145 mph as of 7 a.m. today.

Worse, it was still strengthening as of 8 a.m. this morning. The tops of the clouds near the eye of the storm were getting colder, which is a sure sign of strenthening. The central air pressure of Michael was also falling, meaning it's getting stronger.

If Michael comes ashore with 145 mph winds, it will be among the ten strongest hurricanes to make landfall anywhere in the United States. The area where it hits - probably near Panaman City - will never look the same.

To think that just five days ago, Michael seemed like a distant, minor threat. Now, it's a cataclysm. Another one in an era that has brought us some of the most destructive  hurricanes in U.S. history: This list is getting long and depressing: Harvey, Irma, Maria, Matthew. Sandy, Irene

The outer winds of Hurricane Michael were coming ashore in the Florida this morning. As I noted yesterday, this area has had a lot of hurricanes over the years. But this one is the strongest in memory.
A category 4 hurricane has never come ashore in the Florida Panhandle in records dating back to at least 1851.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee put it starkly enough: "This will be a catastropjic event the likes of which this region has never seen."

The 145 mph winds will cover a relatively small area, as they do in most strong hurricanes. But destructive hurricane force winds will  cover a wide area. As of early this morning, the hurricane force winds extended out 45 miles from the center of Michael. Tropical storm force winds extended out 185 miles from the center.

The winds of all hurricanes diminish fairly quickly once they come ashore. But Michael is so powerful it will take quite awhile for the winds to spin down. That means hurricane force winds will plow into Georgia and tropical storm force winds will go all the way up into the Carolinas.  Michael will then pass off the East Coast by early Friday morning.

Best guesses are more than a million people will lose electricity from Florida to North Carolina.

Hurricane winds are often the most visually dramatic aspects of storms like Michael. We'll see a lot of  videos of it, I'm sure,since this storm is coming ashore during daylight hours.

Radar imagery of Michael at
7:10 a.m. today. 

However, storm surges are the most dangerous and most deadly aspects of hurricanes. The storm surge associated with super strong Michael will be beyond awful.  When the storm was still well off shore early this morning, Apalachicola, Florida had its fourth highest tide on record.

When the storm comes in, the storm surge will be ridiculous. If the storm comes ashore at high tide, the surge could be as much as 13 feet above normal levels.

Anybody who didn't evacuate from the storm surge zone will very likely die.  Storm surges flow violently, and have battering waves from the hurricane winds to boot. The water will also be laden with debris as it plows into shoreline neighborhoods.

I hope everybody is away from the coast by now. The mayor of Tallahassee, Florida said this morning it's now too late to evacuate. People just have to hunker down and hope for the best.

All hurricanes produce torrential rain. There will be stripe of four to eight inches of rain, with locally higher amount from the Florida Panhandle, across central Georgia, and into the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia.

As you remember, the Carolinas are still dealing with the catastrophic flooding and its aftermath from Hurricane Florence.  As of this morning, a southeasterly air flow off the Atlantic Ocean, arranged in part by the position of Michael, was dumping heavy showers on South Carolina.

This is going to be another extreme disaster. This, in a year we've had far too many.