Possible Bad News With Tropical Storms Dorian, Erin

Tropical Storm Dorian east of Puerto Rico early this morning. It's
looking more organized than it did yesterday.

As expected, forecasts keep shifting for Tropical Storm Dorian, and as of now, the news is worse for Florida, which could end up taking a nasty hit.

Land interaction, which could have potentially killed Dorian if it went over Puerto Rico or especially the Dominican Republic.  

Now it looks like Tropical Storm Dorian will just clip eastern Puerto Rico before head northwest into warm, open waters, where it could strengthen. That means it won't be over land long enough to get destroyed.

Top sustained winds with Dorian this morning were up to 60 mph, and the Natonal Hurricane Center says the storm definitely looks better organized than yesterday.

Dorian is going to cause problems in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. Puerto Rico is especially vulnerable. Their electrical system is still a mess after Hurricane Maria two years ago. Tropical storm force winds will be enough to wreck the lines once again.

Even more so than yesterday, Florida had better watch out for Dorian. It will be mostly over open water as it moves northwest, then west toward Florida, as it stands now.

Very often, a tropical storm or a hurricane heading northwest near Puerto Rico will curve harmlessly out to sea. But a large high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean looks like it will get in the way, steering Dorian westward toward Florida.

The National Hurricane Center says computer models have Dorian strengthening into a hurricane by Friday and remaining a potentially strong hurricane as it nears the northeast Florida coast on Monday. The NHC also says the hurricane would grow larger in size with time before it hits Florida.

This of course is a preliminary forecast, and the eventual path and strength of Dorian could end up being very different from current forecasts.

But if this prediction stays on track, this would be a rare hurricane hit for northeast Florida. The coastline there sort of curves inward, and hurricanes tend to hit either further south in Florida, or up the coast in the Carolinas.  This one could be serious, and we need to keep an eye on it.

TROPICAL STORM ERIN

That tropical depression off the East Coast yesterday has strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin. It only has sustained winds of 40 mph and won't get much stronger, says the National Hurricane Center. It will also stay well off the East Coast and eventually come ashore somewhere near Nova Scotia late Thursday or early Friday.

So no problem, right?

In this case, wrong. Or at least kinda wrong. A cold front that will give us showers here in Vermont later today will keep trucking deeper into New England. That will draw tropical moisture from Erin northwestward into eastern New England.

Flash flood watches are up for eastern Maine, coastal New Hampshire, eastern and central Massachusetts and Rhode Island later today and tonight. The worst downpours will be hit and miss, but a few spots could get four or five inches of rain in a short period of time, so that's a problem.

Rainfall might be locally  heavy in southeastern Vermont, too, but it likely won't be bad enough to cause any issues.

Weird Storms Have Weather Geeks Geeking Out. You Might, Too

This "medicane" in the Mediterranean Sea is threatening Greece and Turkey

A couple of odd storms have formed in different parts of the world, making us weather geeks take notice.

Some of the storms are dangerous, some are not really that scary. At least for now.  But they are interesting

"MEDICANE" THREATENS GREECE

A storm in the Mediterranean Sea has taken on a lot of the characteristics of a tropical storm or hurricane, which is somewhat unusual for that part of the world.

The Mediterranean is usually considered too small, and often too chilly to support any kind of tropical storm. But sometimes, a regular storm in that region will take on tropical characteristics, and that's what this storm has done.

Regular storms have warm and cold fronts, and often the strongest winds are away from the storm's center. Tropical storms feed off warm ocean water, are symmetrical and have thunderstorms and strongest winds closest to its center.

According to the British Met Office, the storm got its non-tropical start the way most non-tropical storms do. Cold air from the Balkans clashed with warm air from the Sahara and boom! You had a storm.

The storm then sat over the Mediterranean, and gradually become more and more like a tropical storm as it steep itself in the effects of the warm Mediterranean.

The "medicane" will bring gusty winds to parts of Greece and torrential rains to Greece and western Turkey. Flooding is definitely a threat.

Medicanes do happen from time to time. The Met Office notes there medicanes in the region in 2014, 2016 and 2017.

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE

Some of us have pretty complicated backgrounds and so does Leslie, a storm out over the Central Atlantic.

It began life as a tropical storm, like how I described above. It had a warm core, it fed off toasty ocean water, looked pretty symmetrical and had its strongest winds near the center.

Then a cold front and a powerful upper level low pressure system plowed into Leslie. That turned it into just a regular storm system, with warm and cold fronts. It was a powerful one, with very strong winds and waves. It's sending rip currents and dangerous surf toward the East Coast as we speak.

Now, this storm is heading slowly toward the southwest, over warmer ocean waters. It's beginning to take on the characteristics of a tropical storm again. Right now it's a hybrid, know as a subtropical storm.

As it continues toward the southwest, it's expected to become fully tropical again, and grow into a hurricane. It's path is pretty unusual too, possibly heading almost due south for a time in a few days.

It's unknown if Leslie will ever become a threat to land. For now, it's kind of meandering out there.

HURRICANE ROSA TO SOAK ARIZONA OF ALL PLACES

A hurricane named Rosa was pretty powerful off the west coast of Mexico over the past few days. It's weakening, but it's taking a path that will take it across Baja California and into Arizona of all places

By the time it hits Arizona, Rosa will be just be tattered remnants of her former self. But the storm will spread torrential rains into the normally arid Desert Southwest, which will include a big chunk of Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, including Las Vegas.

Flash flood watches are already up in this region, effective Monday afternoon into Wednesday. Rainfall rates might go to one to two inches an hour in this area, which is extraordinary for the Desert Southwest.

On the bright side, some of this tropical moisture looks like it will make it up into Utah and parts of western Colorado, which are very dry and under a forest fire danger at the moment.

We'll have to watch the remains of Rosa in a week or so. Its left over upper level energy could spark some heavy rain in the upper Midwest - places like Wisconsin and Minnesota- which have had flooding problems and is very wet already.

While this tropical situation in Arizona is kind of rare it is by no means unique. In October, 1983, the remnants of Tropical Storm Octave caused a disastrous flood in Arizona that killed 14 people and caused about $370 million in damage.

Thank Goodness Big Hurricane Aletta Missed Land: Next Up: Bud And More Scary U.S. Rain

Intense Hurricane Aletta off Mexico's west coast Friday. 

Hurricane Aletta in the eastern Pacific Ocean didn't really get anyone hot and bothered except for weather geeks like me.

It spun up off the western Mexican coast in recent days.

At midweek it blossomed overnight from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 140 mph. It's very unusual for a storm to intensify that fast, and of course there would have been real trouble had Aletta gotten close to land.

Thankfully, she headed west, away from land. All we got was the wow factor of seeing a hurricane intensify so fast and spectacular satellite photos and videos. Now, Aletta is getting into colder waters and stronger upper level winds. It's weakening, and should dissipate within a few days.

It's not weird for a hurricane to get going this early in the eastern Pacific. It IS odd, but certainly not unprecedented for a hurricane to get that strong so early in the season. It's the sixth earliest Category 4 storm in the eastern Pacific, notes Dr. Jeff Masters in his Category 6 blog.

Another eastern Pacific tropical storm seems almost certain to form any minute now. It will be named Bud and it could threaten Baja California with heavy rain, high surf and strong winds. It bears watching.

I like the name Bud for a tropical storm or hurricane but I still don't want it to hit land and cause havoc.

MIDDLE ATLANTIC RAINS, AGAIN!

Of more concern to people in the United States is a return to a weather pattern that brought destructive flooding during May to some areas in and near the Middle Atlantic States. and Midwest.

A generally west-to-east oriented weather front is forecast to waver back and forth over the central Plains, through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the Middle Atlantic States over the next week or more.

This will bring repeated rains, sometimes heavy to these regions.  The Middle Atlantic States had among their wettest Mays on record. Many areas flooded, like we saw in the Ellicott City, Maryland disaster. The Potomac River went into a high enough flood so that a fly fisherman was spotted in the Washington DC National Mall as the river's waters invaded that area.

Other areas, as far west as Iowa, have been suffering through this weather pattern, with flooding reported there, and more expected.

Evacuations due to flooding in Mason City, Iowa this week.
Via NorthIowaToday.com

I do think we will see more news of destructive and possibly flash floods in the areas I just mentioned over the course of  the next 10 days or so.

This weather pattern, with the wavering front well to our south, is and isn't perfect for us here in Vermont, either.

On the perfect side, it has been happily contributing to a long series of Goldilocks, Chamber of Commerce Days (Not too hot, not too cold, and plenty of sun for the tourists to enjoy.)

This trend will continue for the next few days at least.

But we are drying out, and very little rain is forecast here in Vermont over the next week. Some precipitation might fall toward the end of next week, but at this point it's looking way less than impressive.

We are still quite far from any worries about drought, though areas of abnormally dry conditions are starting to pop up in parts of New England, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

If this trend continues through the summer (a really BIG if), we could be looking at some problems with lack of water by August or so. Fortunately, weather patterns that start in May typically don't last through the whole summer.

We Might Never Know Puerto Rico Maria Death Toll, But U.S. Surely Dropped Ball On Response

Harvard researchers say the death toll in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria
last year was many times more than the "official" count. I guess
Donald Trump throwing paper towels into a Puerto Rican
crowd was inadequate hurricane relief. 

People are rightly appalled by the figures provided by Harvard University researchers who put the death toll from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico last year at 4,645.

That's far above the "official" death toll of 64 attributed to the Category 4 hurricane on the island.

The Harvard researchers' findings is an estimate and could well be off. Still, it's horrifying.

It's based on a survey of 3,299 Puerto Rican households, which indicates 31 percent of respondents reported disruptions in medical services and 14 percent said they were unable to get their medications, according to the Associated Press. 

From there the researchers extrapolated the number of deaths caused by the lack of medical care post-Maria.

And that's the big takeaway from this research as far as I'm concerned. However many people died from the hurricane in Puerto Rico, the overwhelming majority of the casualities were not caused directly by storm surges, or flooding or high winds.

Most of the deaths were caused by a weak response to Maria. Yes, surely, some people would have died of medical complications in the immediate aftermath of such an extensive disaster. But the fact that the power was out for months in many areas, and that resources weren't applied adequately to the island is a national shame.

Remember, Puerto Rico is part of the United States. I remain convinced that because most Puerto Ricans aren't white, and most are Hispanic, the response wasn't as robust as it could have been, due to, yes, racism.

Let's face it, the response to Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Hurricane Irma in Florida last year was way more effective and timely than the Maria response in Puerto Rico. 

I do agree with Vox and other commentaries that the poor response to Maria was a mix of the Trump's administration's racism and its incompetence. As Vox says:

"Suspicion will, of course, linger for years that there's a connection between Trump's habit of weaponizing anti-Latino hysteria as the centerpiece of his politics and the unfolding of an essentially unprecedented human tragedy in a Spanish-speaking U.S. territory. 

The possibility that Trump and his team simply have no idea what they're doing should not, however, be dismissed out of hand. The fat of the matter is this is the only real crisis we've had occasion to see Trump try to wrestle with, and it's been a total fiasco - with a high human cost."

The Trump administration did not adequately gear up ahead of the storm when they knew it was coming. The relief effort was paltry and rife with incompetence or worse. Trump blamed Puerto Ricans for not recovering from Maria by themselves. He seemed to think throwing a few rolls of "beautiful soft" paper towels at people in Puerto Rico after Maria would make all the difference.

More people are researching to determine more precisely how many people died in Puerto Rico due to Maria and the U.S. government's paltry response.

George Washington University is also conducting an independent review to determine the number of Maria-related deaths in Puerto Rico. The results of that study were due out in May, says the AP, but the research team asked for and received more time to complete the study.

I hope more research does shed more light on this travesty, and if people in the Trump administration didn't do enough, let's hold them to account.

After A Brief Break, Another Hurricane Threat For The United States

Just some of the computer models for the future
track of what could well become Hurricane Nate.
As you can see by the variety of potential paths,
the forecast for Nate is still uncertain, but it
really does pose a threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

For a few blissful days, there hasn't been much in the way of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, and, thankfully, nothing to speak of near the United States except for a weak tropical disturbance near Florida.

Unfortunately, that started to change yesterday as a tropical depression formed near Nicaragua. That depression this morning strengthened to Tropical Storm Nate, which has a strong chance of becoming a hurricane.

Nate will likely cause big problems in Nicaragua and Honduras, Mexico, probably Cuba and, yes, the United States.

The tropical depression was having a hard time strengthening into Tropical Storm Nate early this morning because it was interacting with land over Nicaragua and Honduras. (Tropical storms and hurricanes only strengthen over warm water.)

Still, the storm is likely to cause dangerous flooding in those two countries today.

From there, Nate will head north and emerge over the toasty waters of the western Caribbean Sea, where it will likely strengthen. Before it gets too strong, the storm will likely clip Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

It's unclear whether what is now Nate will be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane by the time it gets to the Yucatan Peninsula sometime Friday night or early Saturday morning, but it will cause wind, flooding rain and possible storm surge problems there.

From there, Nate will move northward over the Gulf of Mexico toward the United States. The water in the Gulf of Mexico is very warm, which tropical systems love if they want to strengthen.

The big question is how much will this would-be hurricane strengthen before its inevitable landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Some models barely bring this to hurricane strength, it at all. Other computer forecast models dramatically strengthen Nate over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it a terrible threat to parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast by late Sunday or early Monday.

This far out, its exact track is also uncertain, but a zone from Louisiana through most of the Florida Panhandle are at risk. Wouldn't you know this is an area that is relatively unscathed between the flood devastation from Hurricane Harvey in Texas and southwestern Louisiana, and the Florida Peninsula, which was raked by Hurricane Irma last month.

So, once again, the United States is bracing for a possible disastrous hurricane.

Up here where we live in Vermont, it's possible the remnants of Nate could affect us next week. On the plus side, if it does, it would dump a big slug of rain on us, which we need. (The relatively modest rains that fell over northern Vermont last night helped a little,  but we need a lot more to get over our current dry spell.)

On the negative side, a gusty, heavy rain from a former tropical storm could short circuit some of the fall foliage, which is finally beginning to develop over the North Country - much later than normal due to the record September heat we had.

I can't give you any specifics, since the track of Nate is so uncertain.

Starting To Worry About Irma A Little

Hurricane Irma looking ominous on satellite photos
this morning

Lots of places now need to watch out for massive Hurricane Irma. 

Forecast tracks for Irma are still not set in stone, of course, but we are starting to get some clues as to where it's headed, and the news is not great.

First in line are the northern Leeward Islands, basically the eastern entrance to the Caribbean, where hurricane watches are up.

And the National Hurricane Center has this to say:

"Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Irma."

While you're at it, you might start throwing in the Bahamas and Cuba for places that should watch Irma.

Irma still had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph early this morning, and the storm looked healthy on satellite images. Irma is now moving into even warmer ocean water, which could easily favor more strengthening.

A lot of forecasters are pretty confident Irma will rise up to Category 4 strength soon.

Overnight, the forecast models shifted the expected path of Irma a bit south and west in the long term, which puts the United States more at risk.

It's still possible the models could shift back away from the U.S. Any threats to the United States mainland are a week away, so huge changes in forecasts are still likely.

For now, the threat is anywhere on the East Coast, with an area from Florida to the Carolinas most at risk. Again, this is NOT definite. It's just something for people in these areas to keep an eye on for now.

Already, though, I see reports of store shelves in Florida cleared of bottled water and other supplies.

It is probably smart to get ready now, so you don't have to do a rush job amid a panic. If the storm ultimately misses, people in Florida and elsewhere will have supplies, and practice for the next time there's a hurricane threat.

Some Severe Weather Today; Atlantic Tropics Bubbling

Brief funnel cloud over Potsdam, New York Friday during
a severe thunderstorm. Via Richard O'Hanlon on Twitter.

The theme of today's post is "As Expected."
Up here in New England, a cold front is coming in today, as expected. 

And, as expected, there is a chance of some severe thunderstorms, though I don't think they will be widespread.

There were scattered severe thunderstorms in New York State yesterday, but nothing major in Vermont. That was also pretty much as expected.

The timing of the cold front is such that the best chance of strong to locally severe thunderstorms this afternoon is from the Green Mountains east, and in southern New England. This is in line with what forecasters were thinking yesterday. So yes, as expected.

By the way, this won't be a mega-outbreak of severe weather. There will probably be just a few reports. Most of you who actually get a thunderstorm won't get anything too traumatic. And I'm sure several places won't get thunder at all.

We'll clear up tonight, and Sunday is going to be largely sunny and cool-ish.

Meanwhile, hurricane enthusiasts are watching the tropical Atlantic Ocean, as things seem to be coming to life there. It's August, and tropical storm chances usually ramp up about now. So yeah, say it with me: As expected.

They're watching two areas: One in the central Caribbean, the other way out over the eastern Atlantic.

Nobody is really sure if either of these two systems will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane. If they do, nobody is sure whether they will hit land anywhere. That - ugh, is to be expected. You usually can't tell what a wannabe tropical storm will do before it develops.

So ignore those people on line who take one of dozens of forecasting models, an outlier, that shows one of these things developing into a monster hurricane hitting the U.S.  That's just clickbait. People trying to get attention and possibly money.

Don't worry about either wannabe tropical system unless and until the National Hurricane Center gets a handle on how they will develop and where they will go. They'll issue warnings and alerts if need be.

Dangerous Hurricane Otto Making Landfall in Nicaragua, Costa Rica

Hurricane Otto just before landfall Thursday. 

As I write this, Hurricane Otto's eye was coming ashore near the Nicaragua and Costa Rican border as a ferocious storm with 110 mph sustained winds.  

This part of the world is not used to such strong hurricanes, so this could really be a disaster. 

Otto is an odd one. It's the strongest hurricane on record to strike this far to the southwest. It's below the latitude of the northern reaches of South America, so this is something. 

Otto is also the strongest Atlantic hurricane since 1934 to form this late in the season. In the relatively rare cases when tropical storms get going late in November, they're usually pretty lame. 

However, Otto is a beast. 

Just before 1 p.m. today, the eye of Otto made landfall on the extreme southern coast of Nicaragua near the town of San Juan De Nicaragua, says the National Hurricane Center. 

There is surely devastating winds and storm surges going on there and in northern Costa Rica. As Otto makes its way inland, torrential rains will cause terrible flash floods and mudslides. 

Otto will eventually emerge into the Pacific Ocean as a tropical storm, but strong upper level winds there will finish it off, making it just a remnant, weak swirl within a few days. 

Otto was already killing people and causing serious damage well before coming ashore. Three people died in Panama with the outer fringes of Otto. Two died in a rain-caused landslide, and a child died when a tree fell on a car.

See Panama landslide footage at the bottom of this post.

The governments of Nicaragua and Costa Rica evacuated tens of thousands of people away from the coastline, so we hope that will minimize the number of deaths Otto causes. 

Here's that terrifying video of the Panama landslide:

Matthew Slogs On, And Away From Matthew, Tornadoes, Snow And Frost

From television station WRAL: A man awaits rescue
on a North Carolina roof amid Hurricane Matthew's flooding

Hurricane Matthew, now a post-tropical storm, took one more deadly swipe, probably the worst yet, on its trip along the southeastern United States coast.

The storm dumped incredible amounts of rain on South Carolina and especially North Carolina Saturday and last night.

That, combined with brutal storm surges, caused another in a series of extreme floods the nation has suffered.

There's been hundreds of water rescues in North Carolina. (You'll see one at the bottom of this post.)

Television station WRAL in North Carolina said so far, four deaths have been reported in the state from Matthew. The television station has counted 574 people saved in 227 water rescues in Cumberland County alone, with more people still on roofs, awaiting rescue.

This sounds very much like the extreme Louisiana flood earlier this year.

According to a WRAL report last night: 

"'The city is under water,' the Raleigh Police Department said as night began to fall. 'Every officer in the city is on a weather-related call. Officers can't respond to anything else at this time. Please, please, please stay home. It is unsafe to be out.'"

Up to 15 inches of rain fell on North Carolina, and winds gusted to 80 mph along the coast. Storm surge flooding and flash floods were still ongoing in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia early Sunday morning.

OTHER WEATHER:

A tornado in Kansas Thursday, proof that Matthew wasn't
the only wild weather in the nation this week.  

While we were all glued to the antics and destruction of Hurricane Matthew, the weather sort of went off the rails in other parts of the country as well.

In Kansas Thursday, several tornadoes touched down ahead of a fairly strong cold front.

The Wichita Eagle reports three houses damaged east of Salina. Several outbuildings were also damaged, schools went on lockdown to protect students who would have gone out in threatening weather in the afternoon, and power was cut to some neighborhoods.

No injuries were reported.

The Storm Prediction Center received reports of 20 tornadoes in Kansas and western Iowa.

Meanwhile, behind the cold front, snow fell in places like northwestern Nebraska, parts of Colorado and Wyoming and northern Minnesota.

Frost and freezes were widespread across the northern Plains this morning, too.

It might be warm where you are, but winter is still coming.

The cold front that caused the weather in Plains is heading toward New England in weakened form. The Indian Summer weather we're now enjoying in Vermont is going by the wayside in favor of seasonably cool autumn weather Sunday and Monday.

That means highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, with scattered frost. Very typical for this time of year.

Here's a clip of a tornado lumbering through Kansas two days ago:




 Here's a water rescue in North Carolina as workers save a baby and his mom from a flooded car:

 

Matthew Hammering Florida, Haiti Reeling, Dumb Storm Conspiracy Theories

Radar image of Matthew near
  Cape Canaveral early this morning.  

Winds were starting to gust to near 100 mph around Cape Canaveral, Florida before dawn today as Hurricane Matthew slowly trudged northward along the Florida coast.

So far, the hurricane has been in a position ever so slightly east of where many forecasters thought it would be.

That's great news, because even this slight eastward jog has kept much of the worst winds away from Florida. At least so far.

Still, there's going to be a lot of wind damage and flooding in that area, and in coastal Georgia and South Carolina, too.

Before dawn Matthew was going through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle. During these cycles, the eye of the storm rearranges itself, either becoming bigger or smaller.

During eye wall replacement cycles, powerful hurricanes like Matthew temporarily weaken a little, and that's what Matthew did, which is also a bit of good news.

 Maximum sustained winds had dropped to 120 mph - still horrible, but a tad less horrible than yesterday.

Once the eyewall replacement cycle is over, Matthew won't have a chance to restrengthen. Interaction with land as it moves along the coast, and increasing upper level winds, will make Matthew slowly weaken further over the next few days as it first makes a run at the South Carolina coast, then heads east offshore, then south.

The really good news is Matthew is tracking northward a little offshore, a bit more than forecasters thought. So things are really bad in eastern Florida, but not as bad as they could have been had Matthew went inland.

As it stands now, it looks like Matthew could hit the Bahamas or even Florida again in a few days as it does a loop off the coast. Only this time it would do so as just a fairly weak tropical storm. We'll see how that turns out. 

Matthew along the Florida coast Friday morning.

Meanwhile, news out of Haiti, the first country Matthew hit, is getting grimmer and grimmer. As of early this morning, the BBC and other news outlets reported more than 300 dead in Haiti, and the death toll is sure to rise as rescuers and aid workers reach hard hit areas.

Matthew lumbered through the Bahamas Thursday, causing extensive storm surge flooding, blowing roofs off homes and hotels, cutting power and prompting several rescues. So far, I haven't heard of any deaths in the Bahamas, which is a good thing.

NICOLE

Another stunning hurricane development that hasn't gotten much attention because of Matthew is Hurricane Nicole. It's south of Bermuda, and peaked last night with sustained winds of 105 mph.

This meant that two hurricanes in the Atlantic simultaneously had sustained winds of at least 100 mph. That's the first time such a thing has happened this late in the season

Luckily, Nicole is not expected to hit any land areas and will gradually weaken over the next few days.

Nicole wasn't supposed to amount to anything more than a piddling tropical storm, because outflow from Matthew would squelch it. But Nicole surprised everyone by becoming a substantial hurricane.

STUPIDITY OF DRUDGE

Now, I have to go off on a riff about stupid people, so here goes:

That Hurricane Matthew appears to be sparing Florida as bad a blow as some feared is obviously a very good thing. But some people are making political hay out of this, which could be deadly in future storms. People like Matt Drudge and Rush Limbaugh might have blood on their hands in the future.

Matt Drudge came up with this wackadoodle conspiracy theory yesterday that government officials, including the National Hurricane Center, are exaggerating the strength and risks from hurricanes like Matthew to scare people into fearing climate change.

Drudge tweeted: "The deplorables are starting to wonder if gov't has been lying to them about Hurricane Matthew intensity to make exaggerated point on climate."

He also tweeted: "Hurricane Center has monopoly on data. NO way of verifying claims. Nassau ground observations DID NOT match claims. 165 mph gusts? Where?"

As Vox noted, Drudge's conspiracy dumbness is dangerous:

"The implication of Drudge's tweet is that resisting evacuation isn't a bad, self destructive move but a brave way for 'deplorables' to stand up to the government. That's not just stupid - it could very well be deadly," Libby Nelson wrote in Vox.

For the record, the National Hurricane Center is nonpartisan, and its data is public record. So anybody could look at their data and find out if there's any funny business.

The National Hurricane Center has also repeatedly cautioned that you can't blame climate change on a single storm, though scientists there have said that climate change might, MIGHT make stronger hurricanes more likely.

Florida Governor Rick Scott, a Republican who has not embraced the science of climate change, strongly urged people to evacuate ahead of Matthew.  So Matt Drudge, what's Rick Scott's problem.

I agree with meteorologist Joe Bastardi, an outspoken climate change skeptic on his Tweet this morning: "Flat out ignorant to believe NHC exaggerating data for climate change. What, so they can look bad if it doesn't happen? 40 mile error explains."

The 40 mile error Bastardi referred to is the mere fact that Matthew is as much as 40 miles further east than many forecasters predicted. It's that simple.

Drudge is just dumb. By the way, Rush Limbaugh was making similar silly claims as Drudge yesterday, too.

I think the two of them should rent a nice beachfront cottage in a location about to hit by the next strong hurricane.

Matthew, Slamming Bahamas, Targets Florida, South Carolina

Hurricane Matthew, with its eye over Haiti
early Tuesday, looks like a horrible sinister
face in this undoctored satellite image.  

Reports are still sketchy from Haiti after Category 4 Hurricane Matthew slammed that impoverished nation with winds of up to 145 mph and feet of rain.

However, I'm afraid we might ended up hearing of a high death toll, but I could be wrong. I hope I AM wrong.

The New York Times reports massive devastation in Haiti, with crops ruined, houses blown away and terrible flooding.

The Times' reports are still understandably sketchy, as it takes days for word to get out after a disaster like this.

However, humanitarian groups said since crops are destroyed, hunger will be a growing problem in Haiti. Plus, roads, houses and other infrastructure are destroyed, making things worse.

Matthew went over the eastern end of Cuba late Tuesday, and the mountainous terrain there weakened it somewhat. Top wind speeds in Matthew were "only" 125 mph as of early Wednesday morning.

The hurricane is going over very warm water now, and upper level winds are light, so chances are it could restrengthen. 

Which, of course, is bad for Florida. And probably the Carolinas. Matthew, as you might have heard, is expected to parallel Florida's east coast. It might or might not make landfall in Florida, and that will determine how bad things get down there.

If it stays offshore, there will be gusts to hurricane force, torrential rains and very bad beach erosion. That sounds terrible, but if it comes ashore, it will be much worse, with major hurricane winds and even more extreme destruction.

Same goes for the Carolinas if it manages to come ashore there.

NBC News and other news outlets say that people are preparing for this by stocking up on supplies to get them through what might be very long power failures.

A man pushes a bicycle through the flooded wreckage of
Les Cayes, Haiti Tuesday. Photo by Andres
Martinez Casares/Reuters.  

Shelves at places like Walmart throughout the region of have been stripped bare of bottled water, canned food and batteries.  Long lines of cars are at gas stations, their owners trying to fill up.

Possibly millions of people are on alert for possible evacuations.

Some are already leaving. A million people have been told to leave in coastal South Carolina. Hotels are already booked inland, for example in the central South Carolina city of Columbia, which is away from the coast.

It's looking less likely that Matthew will affect the Northeast, though that can't be ruled out. Most forecasters thought an incoming frontal system would pick up Matthew and pull it toward New England.

Now it looks like that weather front won't be strong enough to pull Matthew north, so it's becoming increasingly likely that it will head east out ot sea once it's done with North Carolina.

However, we still might be talking about Matthew for awhile. Though this is very, very iffy, some forecasts pull Matthew out over the Gulf Stream, where it could take advantage of very warm water and restrengthen (depending upon whether upper level winds are favorable) It could even loop back towards the United States in about a week or more, but that idea, as I said, is just speculation at this point.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nicole has formed well to the northeast of Matthew over the open Atlantic.

At this point, it looks like Nicole will meander in the open waters south of Bermuda without ever becoming super strong. It's unlikely to get strong enough to become a hurricane.  However, Nicole might somehow influence the path of Matthew, possibly making the hurricane do strange turns or even loops. We'll see.

Matthew Makes Landfall In Haiti; Worst Case Scenario Unfolding

Deadly Hurricane Matthew over Haiti Monday morning
as seen in this visible satellite image.  

Hurricane Matthew made landfall this morning as a Category 4 storm packing winds of 145 mph near the southwestern Haitian city of Les Anglais.

It was the second strongest hurricane to hit Haiti in history.

As you can imagine, early reports are sketchy, but there is sure to be massive amounts of casualties as massive Matthew slowly roars past Haiti.

A couple videos emerging from Haiti Monday morning as the eye hit showed incredible winds sending disintegrating trees and sending debris flying.

Many hours before Matthew arrived in Haiti, things had gotten bad Monday. Severe coastal flooding, and inland flooding was occuring 12 hours before the eye of the storm made landfall.

Reuters reported a man was killed in the seaside town of Port Salut when a wave crashed through his house. The guy was too sick to evacuate, so he was forced to stay.

Inside Hurricane Matthew's eyewall in Haiti. Extreme
winds are causing major damage, but the flooding
will be even worse.  

Rainfall, which is the biggest danger in Haiti from Matthew, was already extreme on Monday.

In neighboring Dominican Republic, a town on the south coast received 22.91 inches of rain within 13 hours on Monday, including 5.33 inches in just one hour.

The National Hurricane Center is still saying Haiti could receive up to 40 inches of rain from Matthew.    

Marshall Shepherd (you might know him from the Weather Channel show "Weather Geeks" pointed out that historically, Haiti has it the worst with hurricane deaths.

He published a chart on Twitter that showed historic hurricanes like Hazel in 1954 Flora in 1963, Gordon in 1994 and Jeanne in 2004 each killed thousands of people in Haiti, while deaths from those same storms in other nations totaled in the dozens at most.

From here, Matthew will hit eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Because of land interaction with Haiti, Matthew will weaken slightly this morning, but could restrengthen over the warm waters surrounding the Bahamas

The Bahamas are in for a HUGE blow. It will be devastating there as well.

More than 12 hours before Matthew hit Haiti,
there was already storm surge flooding
going on.  

Forecast tracks for Matthew have shifted west toward the southeastern United States coasts. Matthew is now expected to skirt very close to the east coast of Florida and hurricane watches are likely to be hoisted there any time now.

States of emergency are out for Florida and North Carolina to help those areas get ready for Matthew's impacts. Florida would be most affected by Matthew Friday and it would reach North Carolina by early Sunday.

It's too soon to say how heavy a blow Matthew will inflict on places like Florida and North Carolina. It depends on its strength and exact track, and we don't know exactly how things will work out.

There's a decent chance Matthew could make landfall in Florida, which of course would be terrible in that heavily populated region of the nation.

If Matthew makes landfall as a major hurricane in Florida, it would be the first time a hurricane that strong has hit the United States in at least a decade. A major hurricane has sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Complicating things more is how Matthew will interact with a fairly weak tropical storm expected to form well northeast of Matthew out in the open Atlantic.

It's also too soon to figure out what Matthew will do, if anything beyond North Carolina. In New England, the hope is it will stay far enough offshore to limit strong winds but close enough to dump heavy rain on the region, which is experiencing a drought.

That seems to be the expected track of Matthew now, but things could easily change dramatically. Stay tuned.

Persistent Matthew Bearing Down On Haiti, Still Confounding Forecasters

The outer effects of Matthew were starting to hit
Jamaica and Haiti Monday morning, as this visible
satellite image shows. 

Today's the day Hurricane Matthew will really start to affect humans dangerously.

We've been watching it for days, churning erratically across the Caribbean Sea.

Now, the weather is just beginning to get bad in Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba. Between now and Tuesday, we really need to hope for the best for the people in these countries.

There's already some flooding in Jamaica as the outer effects of Matthew hit that island. Things will go downhill all day today and tonight.

Hurricane conditions will reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba by Tuesday, and the Bahamas by Tuesday evening.

It's unusual for a hurricane to maintain Category 4 strength or higher for four days as Matthew has. The longest streak of being at continuously Category 4 or higher was Ivan in 2004, but most Atlantic hurricanes, if they get up to Category 4, only stay that strong for a couple days.

Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph  Category 5 storms are 157 mph or more.

As of this morning, Matthew had "weakened" to a storm with top sustained winds of 130 mph. The National Hurricane Center says fluctuations in strength almost always happen in powerful hurricanes like this, so that's not surprising.

Land interactions with Haiti and Cuba will sap Matthew's strength a little more, but it will still be a dangerous hurricane by the time it hits the Bahamas.

They're still predicting up to 40 inches of rain in Haiti, with 10 to 25 inches common in the hurricane zone in the three countries I mentioned.

As I said yesterday, this is guaranteed to cause devastating floods and mudslides, especially in Haiti, where hillsides are now devoid of trees. (They've all been cut down for firewood.)

Storm surges could reach up to 11 feet in Cuba, 10 feet in Haiti, and 10 to 15 feet in the Bahamas, says the National Hurricane Center.

This will totally devastate coastal areas, and hope those areas have been fully evacuated.  However, Reuters reports that a lot of people in Haiti and to some extent Jamaica have not exactly been rushing away from danger zones. These people are in big trouble.

Winds of 130 mph are devastating and dangerous, obviously, but the greatest loss of life from this storm will probably come from storm surges, flooding and mudslides.

As has been the case for days, we still don't know what Matthew will do once it gets to and past the Bahamas.

Computer forecasting models have been going back and forth like windshield wipers in a downpour. Depending on what run of models, and which models we're talking about, Matthew is a threat for anyone between Florida and Labrador, or it might not hit anything at all in the United States and Canada.

It's a slow moving slog for Matthew, so we'll be watching its path for days. At this point, it'll only get as far north as off the central Florida coast Friday, and east of Georgia Saturday. So us folks here in New England will be watching Matthew closely into early next week.

As I cautioned yesterday, don't take any one forecast for Matthew's track to heart. There will continue to be wide swings in the expected path of the hurricane, depending on what other weather systems surrounding Matthew decide to do.

Hurricane Matthew Continues Extremely Dangerous

Hurricane Matthew south of Jamaica and Haiti
Sunday morning, still packing winds of up to 150 mph.

It seems Haiti is in Matthew's crosshairs now.

Hurricane Matthew is still churning in the Caribbean, packing 150 mph winds.  

It's made its long-anticipated turn to the north, but it's position is just a hair east of where we thought it would be a couple days ago.

Which is sort of good news for Jamaica. That island nation will still get a terrible hurricane with devastating flash floods and horrific winds, but it won't be the direct blow we anticipated.

The very, VERY bad news is Matthew has its sights on the poverty stricken nation of Haiti. Most buildings there are not up to the task of withstanding Matthew's winds, even if the storm weakens ever so slightly, as anticipated.

Worse, the National Hurricane Center expects 15 to 25 inches of rain, with local amounts to 40 inches in Haiti because of Matthew.

To put those amounts in perspective, it normally takes a year for us New Englanders to accumulate 35 to 40 inches of precipitation. Haiti's going to get that amount in a couple of days.

Worse, Haiti is a hilly nation, and everybody has stripped the hillsides of trees in a desperate bid for firewood. (They can't afford fuel)

The lack of trees means there's nothing to hold the hillsides in place during torrential rains and nothing to absorb water. There is going to be horrible, fatal mudslides and flash floods in Haiti. I'm terribly worried about the people who live there.'

Cuba, too. Eastern Cuba is going to be nailed by Matthew, too.  The weather will deteroriate in these areas during the day today, and these nations should expect the brunt of the hurricane Monday into early Tuesday

Matthew is strong, but has had an odd appearance over the past day or more. It's got its traditional small, calm eye with its intense winds circulating around it. The core of Matthew is not huge in size as hurricanes go, but it is wild.

However, Matthew has also hung on to a huge blob of intense thunderstorms just to its east. If that holds together, it could end up prolonging the agony of Matthew in Haiti and neighboring Dominican Republic.

It appears this huge blob of storms on the east flank of Matthew is caused by the collision of trade winds blowing from the east as they normally do, colliding with strong west winds on the southern half of Matthew.

When winds collide like this, they have nowhere to go but up. Intense rising air means intense thunderstorms, and that explains Matthew's eastern blob.

The next port of call for Matthew after Haiti and Cuba is the Bahamas, where hurricane watches are already up. Matthew, once again, will probably have weakened a bit more by the time in reaches the Bahamas, but will still pack powerful winds of 110 mph, says the National Hurricane Center.

Plus, you have to remember: Meteorologists are better at forecasting the path of a hurricane than they are the strength. Matthew could regenerate big time amid the warm waters of the Bahamas. Even the best forecasters at the National Hurricane Center know their strength forecast for Matthew over the Bahamas could be a bust.

On top of that, meteorologists still aren't that great at forecasting the path of hurricanes once you get three days or more out. That's not a slam at scientists, it's just that we still have a lot to learn about hurricanes and other tropical systems.

There's still a LOT of questions as to what Matthew will do once it gets to and past the Bahamas. Will it curve harmlessly out to sea? Slam into North Carolina, then spread heavy rains up into the Northeast. Stay off shore until it gets to the Northeast and crash into New England? Or will it do something else?

All this depends on how Matthew interacts with a strong ridge of high pressure over and east of the Canadian Maritimes, a storm system in the Ohio Valley, and a weak tropical system that might form northeast of Matthew.

Subtle changes in the positions, or forecast positions of all these weather systems will greatly influence the path of Matthew.

For us New Englanders, even if Matthew gets this far north, it would happen a week from now. Which means we have plenty of time to monitor forecasts and act accordingly.

Don't panic now if somebody on social media posts a forecast image of Matthew slamming into New England as a very strong hurricane. There are many computer forecasting models that have dozens of scenarios for Matthew, so we shouldn't hang on to one forecast.

Anyone who tells you now on social media that New England is definitely screwed is a hurricane troll. Don't pay attention. Just listen to reliable weather sources. (The National Hurricane Center, the National Weather Service and The Weather Channel are good places to start.)

I'll try my best to relay good information, and I'll try to do it in plain English as we go forward with Matthew.

Incredible Hurricane Matthew Enormous Threat To Jamaica, Cuba; U.S. Uncertain

Intense Hurricane Matthew with a tiny eye common
in super strong tropical systems, is seen her over the
Caribbean Sea Friday.  

As you might have heard on the news, Hurricane Matthew unexpectedly blew up to become a borderline Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the Caribbean on Friday.

It is an enormous,disastrous threat to Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti, as it's still forecast to turn north toward those islands.

Jamaica is so under the gun and I fear for the people who live there. As of this morning, Matthew's sustained winds were 155 mph with higher gusts.

I suppose Matthew might weaken a bit by the time it gets to Jamaica, but its winds are strong enough to trash substantial, well constructed buildings, let alone flimsier structures common in that island nation.

The National Hurricane Center says rainfall on Jamaica will run in the 10 to 15 inch range, with local amounts to 25 mph. This will cause extreme flash flooding and mudslides.

One ray of hope is latest forecast tracks are hinting that Matthew might want to track east of Jamaica rather than over it. Which would slightly lessen the destruction on Jamaica. But unfortunately, this shift could make things worse in eastern Cuba and especially poverty stricken Haiti.

Unfortunately, a Category 4 or 5 storm hitting Haiti might be even worse than such a storm hitting Jamaica in terms of loss of life and destruction.

Matthew is so far ranging that dangerous ocean swells and waves are forecast from Puerto Rico to Venezuela.

So far, forecasters have been able to get Matthew's path through the Caribbean pretty much right, but forecasts for Matthew's incredible wind speeds were way off. Peak winds in Matthew reached 160 mph late Friday, they were at least 60 mph more than forecast.

Matthew intensified at a rate faster that all but two hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic basin. (Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007). This despite wind shear, those strong upper level winds that almost always temper a hurricane's strength.

I think record high sea temperatures in Matthew's path fed this beast.  Shear is getting stronger again over Matthew, at least temporarily, so it might weaken a bit today.

In fact, it might already be weakening a little. Matthew looked more ragged in satellite images this morning than it did yesterday.

But those upper level winds might slacken as Matthew approaches Jamaica later Sunday, so it might strengthen again.

After passing over or near Jamaica, Matthew will probably go over eastern Cuba, causing a big mess there. Then it will head into the Bahamas.

Matthew's passage over land in Cuba will have weakened it some, but it will still be a formidable monster.

People along the East Coast of the United States should keep monitoring this thing. A couple computer models yesterday had Matthew slamming into New England, which would potentially represent a rerun of the 1938 hurricane, which was the worst such storm to hit New England on record.

Many other computer models had Matthew reassuringly staying off the coast. This morning, more of the computer forecasting models are trending Matthew further east, which is certainly encouraging for the East Coast.

However, forecasts for hurricanes days in advance are notoriously tricky, so I'd keep an eye on this thing if you live anywhere in the East.  It all depends upon how Matthew interacts with storm systems over the North American continent this week.k

While you're at it, pray for Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba.

Matthew Is Now Most Dangerous Atlantic Hurricane Of 2016

The beast Hurricane Matthew over the Caribbean early Friday

Hurricane Matthew strengthened a lot yesterday and overnight and is now packing 100 mph winds in the Caribbean Sea.

It is also now a big threat to Jamaica and/or Cuba.

Matthew managed to strengthen a lot despite fairly strong upper level winds that usually weaken such storms. It's moving over very warm water,  and the upper level winds are forecast to eventually weaken, so this hurricane might just become a huge powerhouse.

It's stlll heading toward the west, but forecasters are still predicting a sharp northward turn, starting Saturday. That would bring the powerful storm near Jamaica and Cuba, which would be a terrible disaster for them.

There's still some questions as to when exactly Matthew will turn north, and that will determine where in these to countries get the worst hit.

Hurricanes always weaken over land, and Matthew will end up in the Bahamas as a not as strong version of itself early next week.

It could restrengthen over waters east of Florida, though.

Many forecasting computer models take Matthew northeastward, off the East Coast, which would make it not so terrible for the United States.

However, some of the computer models have Matthew hitting the eastern Carolinas or New England, so it's still something to be watched, for sure.

Rare Hurricane Set To Hit Yemen, As If That Region Needs More Trouble

Hurricane Chapala now
menacing Yemen.  

A rare hurricane in the Arabian Sea became the strongest on record there, and the hurricane - named Chapala - has its sights set on Yemen.

You don't want a strong hurricane to hit any country. But you really don't want it to hit Yemen. War, a breakdown in government, violence, severe food shortages and other travails are now endemic in Yemen.  

A hurricane isn't going to help matters.  

On Friday, top winds reached 155 mph, making it a high end Category 4 storm, the second strongest anyone has seen in the Arabian sea.

Hurricanes don't happen all that often there. The sea is relatively small, surrounding desert lands entrain dry air to choke off impending systems, and strong upper level winds more often than not rip apart would-be hurricanes in the Arabian Sea.

This time, those strong upper level winds aren't present. Worse, water temperatures in the Arabian Sea are highest on record for this time of year. The higher the water temperature, the more likely a hurricane will grow stronger.

That's what happened last week with Hurricane Patricia off the coast of Mexico, which became the strongest hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere due to record warm ocean temperatures beneath that storm.

If there is a plus side to this storm, it's that it will probably weaken somewhat by the time it reaches Yemen. Also, much like Patricia, and  to a certain extent devastating Hurricane Joaquin in the Bahamas earlier this autumn, Hurricane Chapala doesn't really cover that big an area.

On Friday, Hurricane Chapala's width wouldn't even quite cover the distance between New York City and Buffalo, New York.

Even better, the hurricane is forecast to hit a lightly populated section of Yemen. That's in good measure what saved Mexico from Hurricane Pauline. The small hurricane threaded the needle between two large cities and hit a lightly populated spot, which definitely helped minimize casualties.

Still, Yemen has never been hit by a hurricane, and tremendous amounts of rain are forecast to hit parts of this normally arid desert country. Essentially they'll have about eight years worth of rain in a couple days.

Many people in Yemen live in areas prone to flooding from even a paltry thunderstorm. So this storm could really, REALLY become dangerous.

As if people in Yemen didn't have enough danger in their lives already.

Alaska Is Kinda, Almost Getting A Hurricane

Click on this map to make it bigger and easier to see.
This shows the paths of hurricanes and tropical storms
that made it unusually far north in the Pacific.
Yellow parts of tracks indicate it was at hurricane status
green is tropical storm strength. From Dr. Jeff Masters'
Weather Underground blog.  

A hurricane this week managed to sneak much further into the northeastern Pacific Ocean than is normal, which means Alaska and British Columbia are in for a mean, mean storm later today and tonight.

Hurricane Oho cruised through the central Pacific and headed north during this past week.

Usually, hurricanes die out or turn into regular old storms well before approaching Alaska or other points in North America.

Oho indeed stopped being a hurricane and turned into a regular mid-latitude storm, but did so much further north than almost every hurricane in recorded history.

This, and the fact that the remnants of Oho are going to interact with a strong jet stream, mean winds to near hurricane force might hit some coastal sections of Alaska's panhandle.

Hurricanes need very warm water to survive, and the Pacific Ocean off the coast of North America, even off the coast of far southern California, is normally way to chilly to support tropical systems.

However, northeastern Pacific Ocean temperatures are at or near record high levels, so many hurricanes that manages to move north would hang on to their tropical characteristics longer than they otherwise would.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters in his Weather Underground blog, only two other hurricanes since 1949 - an unnamed storm in 1975 and Hurricane Ana last year got as far north as Oho.

Ana also took advantage of record hot water in the Pacific to latitude 36.3 North, which is about as far north as Monterrey, California. The 1975 hurricane made it as far north as the Washington/Oregon border, but like Ana and Oho, was well offshore at that time.

Both Ana and Oho remained potent and dangerous storms, though no longer hurricanes, when the hit the coast of North America.

Masters says another tropical system is forming in the eastern Pacific, and this one, too, has the potential to get much further north than most hurricanes off of the West Coast.

Tropical Storm Erika Is Kaput; Done In By Mountains, Upper Level Winds

Tropical Storm Erika, which earlier this week represented a real threat to become the potential first full-fledged hurricane to hit Florida in ten years, instead fell apart earlier this morning.

Since its inception, Erika battled shear, which is defined as strong upper level winds that tear apart the thunderstorms that make up the center of a tropical storm. Dry air also got pulled into the system, which further hurt Erika's chances of developing.
'
What finally finished her off were the mountains of Hispaniola, the island that contains the nation of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Tropical storms and hurricanes weaken when they reach land, especially if those lands are mountainous.

Erika was originally forecast to skirt by Hispaniola, stay over water and potentially strengthen, but it hit land instead.

Erika will still be remembered as a terrible storm that caused a flood on the island of Dominica, killing at least 20 people.

The remnants of Erika are still VERY wet and still headed toward Florida. So while Florida won't get a hurricane, there could still be some flooding in that neck of the woods early next week.

On the bright side, the remains of Erika will probably dump fairly heavy rain on South Florida, which has been in a drought.

Florida's governor had declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Erika. He'll probably be criticized for "needlessly" putting state resources into hurricane preparation.

But, better safe than sorry. Florida would have been really screwed had they not begun preparing, and then Erika hit hard. I hope Florida residents don't get complacent.

The next time there is a state of emergency in Florida because of a predicted hurricane, and there WILL be such an occasion, let's hope people take it seriously.

I suppose Erika could regenerate after its remnants get north of Cuba and into the warm southeastern Gulf of Mexico waters. That's somewhat unlikely but possible. Stay tuned!!!!

Will Erika Threaten Florida? Everybodys Asking, But Nobody Knows For Sure

Satellite photo of Tropical Storm Erika over the
Lesser Antilles Thursday morning.  

Tropical Storm Erika was struggling westward through the northern Lesser Antilles in the central Atlantic Ocean early this morning, and has a lot of people asking what she's up to.

Like her smaller predecessor, Hurricane Danny, Erika is struggling with dry air and strong upper level winds that are preventing Erika from strengthening much.

Unlike Danny, Erika's larger size gives this tropical storm a shot a surviving the hostile weather conditions around it.

Erika is also a little south of where forecasters thought it might be today. If that's the case, the slightly more southward position might take the storm over the land masses of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, instead of the current forecasts that take it just north of those islands.

If Erika goes over those land areas, it could weaken or even fall apart. Tropical systems feed off warm ocean water, but weaken and die over land.

If Erika manages to survive, it could pose a threat to Florida. If Erika gets to the Bahamas relatively intact this weekend, the tropical storm will encounter weaker upper level winds and very warm ocean waters.

Those are two ingredients that really help tropical storms grow into hurricanes. A lot of computer models do strengthen Erika into a hurricane by the time it gets to its expected position in the Bahamas this weekend.

Then what? A worst case scenario is Erika would indeed strengthen to a hurricane and hit the Florida east coast Monday or Tuesday.

Lately, a lot of models predict Erika will curve northward, just off the Florida east coast.

There's still LOTS of questions on where Erika will end up, and now strong it will be once it gets where it is going.

I'm sure officials in Florida are dusting off and booting up their emergency plans, just in case.

I also bet Lowe's and Home Depot will be SLAMMED with people the next couple of days with people buying hurricane supplies and plywood to board up windows, just in case.

Incredibly, Florida has not had a landfalling hurricane since Wilma in October, 2005, so that's a way, way unusually long time for Florida to go without a hurricane.

I'm sure there will be more surprises with Erika down the line, so don't hang your hat yet on any one forecast for the storm. If you're in Florida or the southeastern United States or planning on going there the next few days, keep yourself updated on what Erika is up to.