Worst Nightmare Comes True: Dorian Razes N. Bahamas; Florida Fears Continue

Your daily dose of Hurricane Dorian. Here it is this morning, slamming
the northern Bahamas. Outer rain bands are beginning to affect Florida
with gusty showers and beach erosion.

An EF-4 tornado, which has winds of between 166 and 200 mph, would severely damage or destroy your house, even though a tornado only lasts at most a few minutes in any one location.

Now imagine such a tornado sitting over your house for most of the day.

That's basically what the northern Bahamas have been experiencing yesterday and today as incredible Category 5 Dorian basically sits and churns in place.  

Images coming out of the Bahamas, most of them taken while the relatively calm eye of Dorian was over the Abaco Islands, are heartbreaking.

very structure was badly damaged by then, and the people in the wreckage faced many more hours of extreme winds after the eye passed.

Cars were thrown around like leaves on a breezy autumn afternoon.  The formerly lush landscape, now stripped of leaves, looked more bleak than a dark, foggy, cold Vermont November day. Dorian's storm surge looked more like a tsunami.

In the eye of the storm, terrified residents somehow found their way to Twitter, begging people to pray for them. It's all too much.

Videos are at the bottom of this post, in case you need proof.

Dorian was, and is, incredible.  With sustained winds of 185 mph Sunday, it was the furthest north an Atlantic Category 5 has gotten east of the Gulf of Mexico. That's what you get when the ocean water is so warm. Warmer than normal, possibly in part due to climate change.

Dorian's winds had fallen to "only" 165 mph as the storm sat and spun over Grand Bahama Island overnight and this morning, with pretty much no forward movement. Freeport in the Bahamas expected sustained winds of 100 mph for 12 to 18 straight hours.

The National Hurricane Center pleaded with Bahama residents not to venture outside in the calm eye of the storm. When the hurricane moves just a little, the extreme winds would suddenly be back, killing anyone who was outdoors.

Now there's Florida. The National Hurricane Center and most forecasters are still confident that after its long stall over the Bahamas, Dorian will turn north, taking advantage of a weak spot in a high pressure system that had steered the storm into the Bahamas.

But Dorian's turn north will come perilously close to the Florida east coast. Actually closer to the coast than some of the more optimistic forecasts earlier this weekend. Some computer models are insisting on bringing Dorian ashore somewhere in eastern Florida.

It's a nail biter, for sure.

Even if Dorian doesn't make it ashore, its dangerous eyewall, where the strongest winds are located, could brush along parts of the Florida east coast. Hurricane and storm surge warnings are in effect for most of the central east coast of Florida.

Already, there is some beach erosion and gusty winds in eastern Florida. Stuart, Florida reported a gust to 54 mph from an outer Dorian rain band this morning.

There are signs that Dorian might be going through something called an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. This is common in strong hurricanes and I'm surprised it didn't happen with Dorian sooner. Eyewall replacement cycles tend to decrease the top wind speeds in a hurricane, which is good. But it also expands the area experiencing strong winds. Which of course is bad, especially for Florida in this case.

Then Dorian will brush past Georgia and the Carolinas, risking more trouble and damage. They're already evacuating people from coastal locations in those states.

True, in a couple, few days, Dorian will not be as strong as it was and is over the Bahamas, it will still be a powerful, dangerous hurricane. We're only halfway through this drama.

Videos:

One of the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas during the eye of the storm Sunday. Notice how the cars had been tossed around as if a toddler had a tantrum with his Matchbox cars




Another video, probably taken during the eye of the storm. It's an apartment building or motel, with its roof gone, debris inside with people inside, too. Then a walk down the hallway to see the extreme storm surge outdoors:



Dorian's storm surge looked more like a tsunami:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/021224.shtml