Hurricane Dorian "Sharpiegate" Violated Integrity Rules

Last year's Sharpiegate scandal was a warning that "alternative facts"
over real science could have dangerous consequences. We certainly
learned that this year.

Yes, I'm back to Sharpiegate, that moment last year that seems so long ago when President Trump falsely said Hurricane Dorian would affect Alabama, and later showed a map altered with a Sharpie that falsely suggested the hurricane had been forecast to hit that area.

New reporting this week shows that NOAA officials violated science integrity rules when scrambling to incorrectly back up Donald Trump's wrong statement last year that Hurricane Dorian would blast Alabama, among other things.

In the grand scheme of things, Sharpiegate seems so insignificant now with the nation's botched Covid-19 response killing people and the Black Lives Matter movement highlighting the stain of racism and police brutality in the United States.

However, Sharpiegate is important in a way because it shows how Trump's sycophants prioritize the "need" to massage Trump's super needy ego at the expense of truth, sound policy, and in this case, science.  As we've learned since, ignoring science can be deadly.

This whole thing with what happened last year should have been a small forgettable gaffe that all presidents make.  In the run up to dangerous Hurricane Dorian, Trump included Alabama in a list of states that could be affected.

Very early forecasts had suggested just that, but in the days leading up to Trump's' words, Alabama was off the table. That state would escape Dorian scot-free.

Due to panicked messages they were receiving after Trump spoke, the Birmingham office of the National Weather Service issued a statement saying that Dorian would not affect the state.

A normal president would have then said, "Oopsie, I had bad information. Turns out Alabama's fine," then dropped the whole thing. From there, everybody would have moved on.

But no, not Trump. He always seems ready to waste lots of precious time, resources and reputation to claim he is always right, evidence be damned.

So we had Sharpiegate

The latest report, via Gizmodo and many other media outlets, is this:

"Internal documents supposedly showed that Tim Gallaudet, NOAA's deputy administrator, nor Neil Jacobs, the acting NOAA administrator, had authorized the press release backing Trump - instead, the order apparently came from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who issued threats to fire Jacobs and other top NOAA officials. Per the Washington Post, an inquiry conducted on NOAA's behalf by the nonprofit National Academy of Public Administration now finds Jacobs and NOAA deputy chief of staff/director of communications Julie Roberts committed at least two violations of scientific integrity rules in issuing the statement claiming NWS Birmingham was wrong. 

The report also concluded that neither official commited a violation when they issued media guidance that limited NOAA scientists from speaking openly to the media about the matter. But Jacobs and Roberts 'intentionally, knowingly or in reckless disregard,' violated conduct and ethics sections of the NOAA Scientific Integrity Policy twice: First by refusing to let scientists in Birmingham review the statement pre-publication, and then sending it out and "compromising NOAA's integrity and reputation as an independent scientific agency."

Of course, this won't matter very much for the people involved, since apparently nobody is facing consequences for these violations. Typical in this administration.  Everybody seems to do whatever they want, regardless of legality and ethics. No wonder there are howls of protest against this administration echoing across the United States.

When Sharpiegate first erupted last year, I said this would erode trust in science, facts and policy when more serious issues came along.  And sure enough, Covid came on the scene, and once again, people who should know better are creating "alternate facts" to appease Trump's little mind.

This time, though, unlike Sharpiegate, millions of lives are at stake and there have already probably been thousands of needless deaths.

Sharpiegate was a warning to the nation about how dangerous this administration is.  We should have listened.

Wimpy, Disgusting NOAA Official Gaslights, Bows To King Trump, Uproar Ensues

In issuing this statement last night, NOAA's top brass decided to
soothe Donald Trump's fragile ego with this lie.

Sometimes I get political in this blog. This time, I'm going at it with both barrels, because I was so outraged last night I couldn't sleep.

Yes, this goes back to Donald Trump's obsession with Alabama and Hurricane Dorian.  Things with this got much worse late yesterday.

Despite all evidence to the contrary, an unnamed NOAA official bowed and curtsied to Cheeto Trump and said that Trump was right all along, that Hurricane Dorian did indeed threaten Alabama, despite what the expert National Weather Service meteorologists in Birmingham, Alabama, and pretty much everywhere else said.

Yeah, some unnamed NOAA Trump cultist threw Alabama scientists under the bus. Very blatantly and wrongly, too. As you might remember from a previous post in this here blog thingy,  Trump on Sunday listed Alabama as one of the states threatened by Dorian.  The NWS office in Birmingham, Alabama, issued a tweet 20 minutes later, assuring Alabamans that Dorian was not threatening them.

These meteorologists wisely tried to avoid panicking people with an incorrect forecast. You know, trying to protect the public. Like they're supposed to do.

But screw the public. Above all else, Trump the baby has to be appeased. He's been incredibly whiny all week that no, he was right, Alabama was threatened by Dorian. He just couldn't drop it.  He's too insecure to admit to being wrong.  Even though his original Alabama forecast was just a case of him misspeaking. Something every president since George Washington has done.

All Trump had to do is correct his statement, and move on. Everyone would have forgotten about it. But Trump, who seriously needs counseling, kept pushing all week. All. Friggin. Week.

Which led to last night's idiotic, gaslighting statement which read in part:  "The Birmingham National Weather Service's Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time."

This statement from NOAA is totally, 100 percent pants on fire a lie. The best forecasting and probabilities - actually basically all of them - indicated that Dorian would definitely miss Alabama.
I went over this in a post the other day. Go ahead and re-read it. 

And forecasters turned out to be correct. It turns out Dorian's effects on Alabama consisted of a few wispy cirrus clouds that briefly decorated the sky over the far eastern part of the state.

Besides, if the NWS meteorologists in Birmingham were wrong last Sunday, why didn't the head honchos at NOAA correct them then? When Dorian was supposedly threatening Alabama. When the public needed to be protected. The answer is everybody knows the Birmingham meteorologists were correct.

Here's what really gets me. Who is this damn NOAA official who's so afraid of a mentally challenged, oranged-skinned idiot who somehow found his way into the Oval Office to blatantly lie like that?  To absolutely insult and dismiss some of the nation's finest, most diligent scientists?

I find it telling that unlike so many press releases, this one from NOAA was unsigned. We don't know exactly who wrote it, but I'm sure our investigative journalists will find out.

Predictably, pun intended, the reaction to this outrage from the NOAA spokespeople from meterologists, other weather geeks and the general public is, well, outrage.

David Titley, a former NOAA chief operating officer tweeted: "Perhaps the darkest day ever for @noaa leadership. Don't know how they will ever look their workforce in the eye again. Moral cowardice."

Texas Meteorologist Matt Lanza said this, also not mincing words: "This is a complete and utter disgrace. The NWS in Birmingham's tweet was 100% spot on with the absolute terms it chose at that time, and anyone telling you otherwise is a liar. Trump is taking NWS, arguably the most effective government agency & trying to ruin it to save face."

You tell 'em, Matt!

James Spann, a revered longtime Alabama meteorologist who never delves into political issues, did this time, tweeting: "The tweet from NWS Birmingham was spot on and accurate. If they are coming after them, they might as well come after me. How in the world has it come to this?"

The Washington Post Capital Weather Gang nailed the danger this NOAA gaslighting puts Americans in:  

"The Weather Service's mission is to protect life and property. By releasing the statement admonishing the agency for an accurate forecast, NOAA may be seen as putting politics before facts. This could undermine forecasters' abillity to carry out their mission to the point where people may come to see its weather forecasts as political and untrustworthy."

National Weather Service employees are understandably demoralized. "The hard-working employees of the NWS had nothing to do with the utterly disgusting and disingenuous tweet sent ot by NOAA management tonight," said Dan Sobien, president of teh NWS Employees Union.

As noted, I don't know who wrote the bogus NOAA release last night. But the director of communications for NOAA is Julie Kay Roberts.

I hope journalists hound her with the following questions (and any additional good questions):

1. If Alabama was under threat as of last Sunday, why were residents of that state not warned then? Why did you wait until Friday night to contradict the meteorologists at the NWS office in Birmingham. Wasn't Friday too late?

2 NWS in Birmingham's Sunday statement that Alabama was not threatened by Hurricane Dorian turned out to be totally accurate. So what's the issue?

3. Since it turned out Alabama was not affected by Dorian, should we have been paying more attention to the Carolinas, which were affected?

4.Do you believe the meteorologists at NWS Birmingham or any other NWS office are incompetent? If so, what are you doing about it

5 Are you concerned the statement released last night would cause the public to lose confidence in NWS forecasts, and thus ignore potentially life-saving warnings?

We're waiting for answers.

More On Dorian: Canada Is Next Target, Believe It Or Not

The western eyewall of Hurricane Dorian was brushing the Outer Banks of North Carolina this morning.

Complete destruction in the Bahamas from Hurricane Dorian.
Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images.

It's unclear whether the eye of Dorian will actually hit land, but conditions were still really rough out there this morning. One town reported a gust of 96 mph.

The National Hurricane Center reported at 7 a.m. Orcacoke, North Carolina had a sustained wind of 69 mph with gusts to 89 mph. 

So more damage is certainly occurring out there on the Outer Banks.

As if Dorian needed to cause more damage.

Four United States deaths have been reported with Dorian. The Associated Press said those deaths were attributed to falls or electrocution as people prepared for the storm. The death toll in Bermuda rose to 30, and will go higher. Survivors have told harrowing stories of people swept away and of houses disintegrating with families inside.

Dorian is now accelerating toward the northeast.  The hurricane, as we know, was notably slow moving, even stalling over the northern Bahamas for a day.

Once hurricanes get as far north as Dorian is now - near North Carolina - mid-latitude westerlies usually pick them up and sweep them northeastward very, very quickly. This will happen with Dorian.

When hurricanes accelerate northward like this, their wind fields expand. Dorian will pass well east of New England, but with its larger size, it will come close enough to prompt a tropical storm warning for Cape Cod and the islands. Winds there could gust to 60 mph late tonight and early Saturday

Dorian looks like it's also going to hit Nova Scotia, Canada on Saturday, and a hurricane warning is in effect there. Strong winds and heavy rain are sure to cause quite a bit of damage in the Canadian province. Environment Canada says winds could reach hurricane force and rainfall might reach six inches.

By tomorrow, Dorian will begin to lose its tropical characteristics, but will still be a powerful storm as it hits Newfoundland on Sunday.

Here in Vermont, we don't expect any effects from Dorian other than clouds and a chance of a few showers east.

Dorian will help drive a couple of cold fronts southward through us, so expect some showers, especially Saturday night with these cold fronts and some cooler than normal weather through at least Monday.

Not Alabama: Reivigorated Dorian Targets Carolinas

Devastation in the Bahamas. Image via The Weather Channel

Seemingly indestructable Hurricane Dorian gathered some strength yesterday from the warm Gulf Stream waters east of Florida and is now slogging its way toward the Carolinas, where a lot of damage seems inevitable.  

Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center said Dorian was 75 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina with winds of 115 mph.  Charleston and surrounding areas were already getting gusty rainbands and flooding by dawn, and it will get worse.

Storm surges will range from four to eight feet in many areas, and water levels might rise well in advance of Dorian's strong winds. Many streets in Charleston were flooded by storm surges early this morning. Additionally, six to 12 inches of rain are in the forecast for coastal areas of the Carolinas.

Dorian was also spinning off several tornadoes this morning. There has already been several reports of confirmed tornadoes with damage in North and South Carolina.

Dorian is still expected to parallel the Carolina coast, and might come ashore at least briefly anywhere between South Carolina and North Carolina's Outer Banks.  It'll be close enough to cause hurricane force winds, especially east of Interstate 95.

Trump o Wednesday tried to defend his incorrect Sunday statement
that Dorian would hit Alabama, using an outdated National
Hurricane Center map altered with a Sharpie making it look
like it was headed toward Alabama.

This after all the extreme destruction in the Bahamas, where the death toll has risen to 20. Authorities expect to find more fatalities. Many injured people were airlifted to hospitals in Nassau in the Bahamas. (There is little hurricane damage in Nassau, as Dorian passed well north of that city.)

Meanwhile, we had our own unfortunate hurricane sideshow Wednesday in the White House.  President Trump falsely or mistakenly said on Sunday that Alabama would get hit by Hurricane Dorian.

After that little gaffe, he could have easily corrected himself and moved on. Anyone can make a mistake, and everybody would have forgotten about it.  

About 20 minutes after Trump said Sunday Alabama would be hit, the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama tweeted out assurances to the public that the state was fine, no need to panic. Trump could have then said, "Whoops! We have updated information, Alabama is OK after all."

But oh, no, not Donald! He actually wasted time Wednesday showing a doctored National Hurricane Center map that had been very outdated by the time he made his Alabama comments on Sunday.

Here's a National Hurricane Center map issued Sunday morning,
hours before Trump's Alabama gaffe. He could have consulted
this map, which (accurately) predicted Dorian would
avoid Alabama and parallel the Florida coast instead.

The map was from three days earlier, showing a projected path for Dorian into the heart of Florida. Worse, Trump or more likely somebody on his staff took a Sharpie and appended a further path on the map into southeastern Alabama. Trump needs his own reality,  you understand.

Of course, you'd think a president would have the latest information from the National Hurricane Center. By Sunday, the NHC forecast had Dorian moving northward, paralleling the Florida coast (which is exactly what actually happened.)  Why wasn't he using Sunday's NHC information on Sunday?

By the way, it is technically illegal to falsify a National Weather Service forecast or statement.

Trump later cited so called "spaghetti plots" which are maps that show what each computer model thinks would be the path of the storm. (The lines go in many directions, so all the lines on the map look like a bowl of spaghetti, hence the name.)

The spaghetti plots that Trump said indicated possible Dorian paths into Alabama were issued four days before his statement, so they were outdated. If Trump is that interested in spaghetti plots (doubtful) why didn't he check them Sunday morning, when all of them had Dorian missing Alabama?

Instead of laughably trying to defend himself with big efforts to defend his lies, maybe Trump should focus on a hurricane response in the Carolinas, and to see what the Bahamas need from us.

Dorian Traumatizes Bahamas By Sitting There For Nearly Two Days

Astronaut Nick Hague took this photo of the eye of Hurricane Dorian
on Monday.

Hurricanes stall out and become stationary sometimes.

But I'm not aware of anything like Dorian, which has sat near one island in the Bahamas for something like 30 hours, all the while subjecting the people there to an incredible storm surge and devastating winds.

I really worry about the psychology of the survivors. Anytime someone experiences a category 4 or 5 hurricane, it's traumatic. But the worst of the storm is usually over within several hours and people an then go about the business of picking up the pieces. 

That's terrible, but not as bad as the Bahamas.

Storm surges, sometimes in excess of 20 feet, lingered all day. So did winds exceeding 100 mph. Videos emerged of people trapped in attics. Of storm surges coming into the second floor of a home. Of an airport that looked like a view of the open sea, hundreds of miles from shore.

At last report there were five confirmed deaths in the Bahamas, but I'm sure that toll will rise dramatically as people will finally be able to get in and assess things once Dorian finally starts moving away later today.

More videos at the bottom of this post.

I have to say the National Hurricane Center has been an amazingly steady hand in the extremely difficult, high-stakes forecasting for Hurricane Dorian. 

Had Dorian been way out over the Atlantic Ocean, 1,000 miles from land, it wouldn't make that much of a difference how long it stalled, or when it decided to turn north.

This situation is much more scary.  When it turns north will determine whether Florida gets a terrible disaster or just a glancing blow. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center are critical for emergency managers to determine who evacuates and who doesn't.

Too few evacuations could mean deaths. Too many are an expensive inconvenience. So far, the NWS forecasts have been spot on.  Donald Trump's criticism notwithstanding.

Trump caused some confusion when he said Alabama was being targeted. That was an error, because when he said that, Alabama was under no threat and the National Weather Service in Birmingham felt compelled to put out a statement telling Alabamans to chill and not worry about Dorian.

Of course, media reports of this hiccup were blasted as fake news by Trump, and his supporters blasted the National Weather Service for, um, being accurate.

But all this is a sideshow. I'll go with what the scientists say

The meteorologists (scientists) at National Hurricane Center continues to believe Dorian will start a northwestward, then northerly course later today. They're still not expecting it to come ashore in Florida, but that doesn't mean the Sunshine State will avoid bad weather. Not at all.

But at least there's a good chance that the strongest hurricane force winds will remain offshore. Still, there will be gusty winds, damaging waves and storm surges and the risk of heavy rain.

Plus, we still don't know exactly how close Dorian will get to Georgia and the Carolinas and strong the storm will be at that point.

It does look like Dorian will miss New England, except maybe clip Cape Cod and the islands with rough seas and gusty winds.

An overview from the Washington Post:



Storm surge inside a house:

Worst Nightmare Comes True: Dorian Razes N. Bahamas; Florida Fears Continue

Your daily dose of Hurricane Dorian. Here it is this morning, slamming
the northern Bahamas. Outer rain bands are beginning to affect Florida
with gusty showers and beach erosion.

An EF-4 tornado, which has winds of between 166 and 200 mph, would severely damage or destroy your house, even though a tornado only lasts at most a few minutes in any one location.

Now imagine such a tornado sitting over your house for most of the day.

That's basically what the northern Bahamas have been experiencing yesterday and today as incredible Category 5 Dorian basically sits and churns in place.  

Images coming out of the Bahamas, most of them taken while the relatively calm eye of Dorian was over the Abaco Islands, are heartbreaking.

very structure was badly damaged by then, and the people in the wreckage faced many more hours of extreme winds after the eye passed.

Cars were thrown around like leaves on a breezy autumn afternoon.  The formerly lush landscape, now stripped of leaves, looked more bleak than a dark, foggy, cold Vermont November day. Dorian's storm surge looked more like a tsunami.

In the eye of the storm, terrified residents somehow found their way to Twitter, begging people to pray for them. It's all too much.

Videos are at the bottom of this post, in case you need proof.

Dorian was, and is, incredible.  With sustained winds of 185 mph Sunday, it was the furthest north an Atlantic Category 5 has gotten east of the Gulf of Mexico. That's what you get when the ocean water is so warm. Warmer than normal, possibly in part due to climate change.

Dorian's winds had fallen to "only" 165 mph as the storm sat and spun over Grand Bahama Island overnight and this morning, with pretty much no forward movement. Freeport in the Bahamas expected sustained winds of 100 mph for 12 to 18 straight hours.

The National Hurricane Center pleaded with Bahama residents not to venture outside in the calm eye of the storm. When the hurricane moves just a little, the extreme winds would suddenly be back, killing anyone who was outdoors.

Now there's Florida. The National Hurricane Center and most forecasters are still confident that after its long stall over the Bahamas, Dorian will turn north, taking advantage of a weak spot in a high pressure system that had steered the storm into the Bahamas.

But Dorian's turn north will come perilously close to the Florida east coast. Actually closer to the coast than some of the more optimistic forecasts earlier this weekend. Some computer models are insisting on bringing Dorian ashore somewhere in eastern Florida.

It's a nail biter, for sure.

Even if Dorian doesn't make it ashore, its dangerous eyewall, where the strongest winds are located, could brush along parts of the Florida east coast. Hurricane and storm surge warnings are in effect for most of the central east coast of Florida.

Already, there is some beach erosion and gusty winds in eastern Florida. Stuart, Florida reported a gust to 54 mph from an outer Dorian rain band this morning.

There are signs that Dorian might be going through something called an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. This is common in strong hurricanes and I'm surprised it didn't happen with Dorian sooner. Eyewall replacement cycles tend to decrease the top wind speeds in a hurricane, which is good. But it also expands the area experiencing strong winds. Which of course is bad, especially for Florida in this case.

Then Dorian will brush past Georgia and the Carolinas, risking more trouble and damage. They're already evacuating people from coastal locations in those states.

True, in a couple, few days, Dorian will not be as strong as it was and is over the Bahamas, it will still be a powerful, dangerous hurricane. We're only halfway through this drama.

Videos:

One of the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas during the eye of the storm Sunday. Notice how the cars had been tossed around as if a toddler had a tantrum with his Matchbox cars




Another video, probably taken during the eye of the storm. It's an apartment building or motel, with its roof gone, debris inside with people inside, too. Then a walk down the hallway to see the extreme storm surge outdoors:



Dorian's storm surge looked more like a tsunami:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/021224.shtml

Social Media Notwithstanding, Things Are NOT Chill With Hurricane Dorian

Category 5 Hurricane Dorian in an incredibly awesome
satellite shot this morning

Hurricane Dorian continued to be an extremely dangerous storm. As of this morning, it has been upgraded as a worst case Category 5 storm, with sustained winds of 160 mph, says the National Hurricane Center. Yes, it managed to strengthen even more overnight. It's slowly churning its way into the northern Bahamas.

By the way, Dorian makes this the first known time there have been Category 5 storms in the eastern Atlantic on four consecutive years.

The tone on some of social media yesterday was, "Oh, this is great. Dorian is going to miss Florida, and might miss the Carolinas. All is good."

Not so fast.

First of all, we need to deal with the Bahamas. We'll get into Florida a bit further down in this post, and things aren't all that rosy in the Sunshine State.

A hurricane this strong is bad enough. When it stalls and sits over pretty much one spot, like Dorian is likely to, it's exponentially worse. You saw the destruction Hurricane Michael caused in the Florida Panhandle last year.

Michael was moving right along, and unleashed the bulk of its destruction in just a few hours.

Imagine having to deal with 100 mph sustained winds for 30 straight hours, like Freeport in the Bahamas could experience. The longer the winds blow, the more opportunity for things to blow away and people to get hurt or killed.

Granted, buildings in the Bahamas are often basically concrete fortresses to ward off hurricanes, but they can only take so much. Plus the couple feet of rain or more they are going to have to deal with isn't easy, either.

Now, let's get into Florida. As I've kept saying all week with Dorian, forecasting the track of a hurricane isn't easy. It's especially difficult when steering currents collapse, as is happening with Dorian. That's why it's stalling out in the Bahamas.

Dorian was moving steadily westward, propelled by a high pressure system north of it. So at least the storm had some sort of meteorological "guidance" that made it comparatively easy to predict where it was going.

Now, Dorian is entering an area with no strong steering currents. Subtle little features in the atmosphere can play a big role in where Dorian goes. And since Dorian is going to get so close to the Florida coast, there's no room for error. But there will surely be errors in forecasting, because this is such a difficult situation to predict. Every mile counts as to how badly this will affect Florida.

The forecast still has Dorian making a hard right turn Tuesday and Wednesday, moving northward offshore, parallel to the Florida coast.

But what if that right turn happens just a little later than currently forecast? In that case, Dorian could still come ashore in eastern Florida as a major hurricane. That's not the official forecast, but the National Hurricane Center still has eastern Florida in the so-called "cone of uncertainty."

That means the NHC is acknowledging that Florida could still be in play here.

Even if Hurricane Dorian somehow behaves exactly as forecasters think it will (Ha!) the central east coast of Florida is in for a nasty few days.

There's a tropical storm warning for that region, and meteorologists have upgraded the wind forecast for populated areas like West Palm Beach, Melbourne, Port St. Lucie and Palm Bay. Winds there could go to 74 to 110 mph, especially if Dorian nudges just a few miles closer to the coast than currently expected.

As Dorian is a slow mover, this part of Florida might endure at least tropical storm conditions from late tonight into Wednesday. That's a long time to have to deal with this.

We won't even get into the threat in the Carolinas later in the week. That's still definitely in play.

Dorian has probably reached peak intensity this morning. You'll probably hear starting today and going into Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday that Dorian is "weakening" so everything's OK, right.

Or not. True, it will probably weaken. Winds with Dorian three days from now might "only" be, say, 120 mph. That's still a problem, isn't it?

I don't mean to be Mr. Gloom and Doom, because there's still a great chance this won't be a worst case scenario for anywhere in the United States. But people in the areas to be affected by the storm should not let their guard down. It could still be a helluva ride.

Big Dorian Changes. And Up Here in Vermont, Autumn Arrives

Intense Hurricane Dorian Saturday morning. Click on the picture and
make it bigger. You can see the storm's distinct 10-15 mile wide
eye and an intense solid eye wall of powerful winds
immediately surrounding it.

Formidable Hurricane Dorian continued to churn toward the northwestern Bahamas this Saturday morning, packing sustained winds of 145 mph, says the National Hurricane Center. It's a strong category 4 storm, almost as bad as it gets.

It might strengthen a little more today, then there will be some fluctuations in strength as it approaches Florida.

Forecasts for a hurricane's path often change due to subtle shifts in the atmosphere and Dorian is no exception. It's possible Florida might catch a break after all.

For the past several days forecasts had Dorian plowing somewhere into the eastern coast of Florida. A ridge of high pressure to Dorian's north would steer it that way.

While Dorian might still come ashore in Florida, computer models and the National Hurricane Center are now latching on to a different scenario.
'
Essentially, Dorian seems like it might pull a Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew in 2016 was another powerful hurricane and it was feared then that it would smack into Florida's east coast. Instead, it moved northward, paralleling the coast, and finally came ashore in South Carolina while weakening.

This spared Florida the full, dangerous effects of Matthew. It's beginning to look like Dorian will do the same. The ridge of high pressure north of Dorian that is steering it looks like it will collapse just before Dorian gets to Florida. It now appears like the storm might move north off the coast of Florida like Matthew did. We shall see.

Of course, slow moving Matthew was still incredibly destructive in the United States, as it unleashed massive, record setting floods in the Carolinas and Georgia.

All this means is the United States is by no means off the hook with Hurricane Dorian. It will probably weaken somewhat as it approaches the southeastern United States coast midweek. And it will be close enough to the coast Sunday through the first half of the week to produce damaging winds, destructive storm surges and very heavy rain.

And flooding. Most of Matthew's United States destruction was due to its slow movement which allowed torrential rains to linger over the Carolinas and Georgia for a long time.

Dorian will also be moving very slowly, so we're probably looking at a repeat of serious Southeast United States flooding and storm surges with this.

Plus, the northwestern Bahamas look like they will feel the full effects of a powerful Category 4 hurricane, so there will be a big disaster there, too.

As always, there will be more adjustments to the projected path of Dorian, so stay tuned.

AUTUMN IN VERMONT?

August in Vermont has been close to normal temperature wise, or even a bit on the warm side, but now that the month is closing, fall weather is inevitable.

Just in time, here it comes.

Tonight will be rather cool in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks, where it could get into the upper 30s. No biggie for this time of year, but still.

Then on Monday, rain and clouds will hold daytime highs down in the 60s. If I'm not mistaken, that would be Burlington's first high temperature under 70 degrees since June 13.

After a brief warmup midweek with showers, it looks like we'll have a few autumnal days late in the week with highs in the 60s again. If we get any clear, calm nights during that period, I wouldn't be surprised to see a little frost in the coldest hollows of northern Vermont, New Hampshire and New York. It's that time of year!

Worries Grow As Dorian Continues Targeting Florida

Bigger and meaner. Dorian looking larger and more intense
than it did yesterday or the day before.

Hurricane Dorian, becoming more and more formitable, continues on a path that continues to look like it will smash Florida.

Chances are now very high that it will come ashore as a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, with winds of up to 140 mph, devastating storm surges and torrential rains which will cause severe inland flooding.

Yep, another disaster is in the works. 

The National Hurricane Center this morning said Dorian had top winds of 110 mph and forecasters say all kinds of factors are at play to make the storm strengthen more.

The water Dorian is passing over is very warm. Upper level winds are light, which hurricanes like.  Early in its life, Dorian battled dry air. The air surrounding Dorian keeps getting more humid the further west it goes. 

Regarding the track, computer models have been "windshield wipering," as they say, for the past couple of days and that might continue. By this I mean, forecasts have Dorian coming ashore further south, then north, then south in or near Florida. This kind of "windshield wipering" is common with forecasts leading up to a major hurricane.

Really, it doesn't matter that much in precisely what city Dorian comes ashore at.  It will cause big problems over a wide area of Florida. This is true even if Dorian manages to curve north just along or off the east coast of Florida, as a small minority of computer models indicate.

Here's a few other things to consider with Dorian:

Coastal flooding, in small part tied to Dorian, is already happening in the Southeast. The new moon is causing "King Tides" which are higher than normal tides created by the position of the moon.  Climate change has contributed to sea level rise, so King Tides have been routinely causing flooding in places like Miami and Charleston, South Carolina.

Easterly winds created by high pressure that's steering Dorian toward Florida and pushing even more water up against the shore from Miami to Cape Hatteras. Damaging coastal floods are starting to occur even though Dorian is nowhere near the United States yet. 

In the "here we go again" department, it looks like there's a good chance that Dorian's forward motion could slow down dramatically in or near Florida. That would prolong the torrential rains and surges and wind from Dorian. That would also worsen inland flooding. It seems we're going through these hurricane "stalls" a lot lately, what with the slow motion of Hurricanes Harvey, Florence and Matthew in recent years.

If you know anyone living in Florida, tell them to get ready if they haven't already.  Dorian at this point is expected to make landfall on Monday.  Tropical force winds and rain could arrive as early as Saturday, so things should be getting done now.

And for gawd's sake if the emergency managers tell you to evacuate, go. Don't ride this out. I'm sure evacuation notices will start flying today if they haven't already, so be ready to leave if you're in the hurricane zone.

I suppose it's possible Dorian could unexpectedly weaken before reaching Florida, or take a surprise turn away. But the chances of that happening look pretty slim at this point.

One last thought: Some long range forecasting models bring Dorian or its remains to eastern New England in about a week. That's speculation at this point, but we'll eventually have to watch and see what happens in that regard.

Dorian Mostly Misses Puerto Rico, But Florida Might Be Screwed

Healthy looking Hurricane Dorian, now well north of Puerto Rico
as seen here Thursday morning. 

Hurricane Dorian went through quite a strengthening phase on Wednesday, becoming a hurricane at least two days before most forecasters expected it to.

That it largely missed Puerto Rico is obviously good, since Dorian's peak winds had increased to 85 mph.  Not a lot of new destruction there.

But Dorian didn't interact with land, which means it stayed strong and has a great shot of getting stronger. Florida is still in its sights.

Dorian is still fighting off dry air trying to intrude. A bit of that dry air did get to the core of the storm overnight. But the National Hurricane Center warns that Dorian has a lot going for it. Relatively strong upper level winds, which can squelch hurricanes, are forecast to weaken.

Dorian is over very warm water and will remain over the toasty H2O for the rest of its journey.  That's a recipe for strengthening, and the NHC says rapid strengthening is possible over the next couple of days.

Strength forecasts for hurricanes are very tricky. Anything could happen. But the National Hurricane Center says Dorian could come ashore in Florida with winds of 125 mph - a major, destructive hurricane. Like we need another one, after Harvey, Florence, Irma and Michael over the past couple of years caused so many billions of dollars in damage in the United States.

High pressure to the north is still forecast to keep Hurricane Dorian heading to the northwest, then west toward Florida. The path is still iffy.  And nobody is sure where on the east coast of Florida Dorian might hit. Some models take it to near the Georgia/Florida border. Other models take it as far south as Miami. So the whole state is in play.

The timing now suggests that the worst of Dorian would hit Florida on Monday - Labor Day.

Predictably but wisely, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency, which funnels money and resourses to local governments and emergency managers to get ready for the storm, as The Weather Channel notes. 

People in Florida are spooked and getting ready for the storm. In Orlando, bottled water has already been cleared from shelves by shoppers preparing for Dorian. Lines for gasoline are really long.

However, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says retailers have ordered extra supplies to be available in the days leading up the the hurricane, and gas supplies are still good.

Some coastal flooding is likely well in advance of Dorian, especially around Miami.  Seasonal king tides, will cause some flooding, and the approaching hurricane might help to push a little extra water ashore.

Another thing to note. If Hurricane Dorian hits south Florida, it would eventually emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. That would create a risk Dorian could gather itself up again, organize and become a threat to the Gulf Coast. We'll see.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin fizzled off the United States East Coast. As expected, it contributed to some heavy rain in eastern New England, but there fortunately wasn't a lot of flooding.

Here in Vermont, Erin contributed a bit of moisture to a slow moving cold front, so we benefitted from some decent showers.