Fast Start To Tropical Storm Season, But No Biggies - Yet

Hurricane Katrina in the devastating tropical storm season of 2005.
So far in 2020, there have been more storms than normal, but all
weak. That will change as we head further into hurricane season

If you blinked, you missed it.

But Tropical Storm Edouard formed in the Atlantic Ocean well off the United States East Coast Sunday and dissipated in less than 24 hours. Top winds were a paltry 40 mph.

The only impressive thing about Edouard was it's the earliest we've gotten to the letter "E" for an Atlantic tropical storm on record. (Tropical storms come in alphabetical order, so Edouard was the fifth tropical storm of the season).

The last time we'e seen anything like this was the previous record breaking early season in 2005, when Emily formed on July 12, 2005.

That year was when the infamous Hurricane Katrina hit.  We also had destructive hurricanes Rita and Wilma, among others.

Like most years, the early storms so far this summer have been relatively weak, with none of them becoming full-blown hurricanes. The early season of 2005 was remarkable because storms like Dennis became a Category 4 monster near Cuba and Emily in the Atlantic turned into the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. Both storms formed in July that year.

Category 5 storms are the strongest and worst of the bunch.  

In an average year, the first full hurricane of the season gets going around August 10. The season peaks in September.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters, writing in the Yale Climate Connection, noted the early 2005 storms formed deep in the tropics. That pattern is usually a harbinger of a severe hurricane season and 2005 was certainly that.

So far, all but one of this year's tropical storms have formed further north, which is less of a sign that this year will be tough.  There might actually be another northern, weak tropical storm in our future. There's a weather disturbance over Georgia this morning.  If it emerges out into the werm waters off the coast of the Carolinas, it could turn into Tropical Storm Fay in a few days.

But don't relax.  There are plenty of other signs we could be in trouble with hurricanes later this summer and fall.

The tropical Atlanttic waters are mostly much warmer than average.  Hot water is fuel for hurricanes, as long as there's not a lot of strong upper level winds to tear thunderstorms apart. Overall water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are actually a little warmer than the toasty levels see in 2005.

The overall weather pattern, and relatively warm water tempertatures in the eastern Pacific, influence the air over the Atlantic tropical region.  Upper level winds are forecast to be relatively light in the Atlantic, which would encourage hurricanes to form.

Additionally, a region in Africa south of the Sahara Desert has been wet and stormy in the late spring and early summer.

If this pattern continues. some of that storminess would move westward off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean and spawn hurricanes.

Hurricanes forming from these disturbances coming from Africa are often the most dangerous. They have time to get strong as they move westward toward the Caribbean, and ultimately, sometimes the United States.

Even if this year turns out to be a busy one with hurricanes, everything depends on their paths.  If all of them manage to stay well out to sea, well, then who cares? It's all good.

But chances are, at least one biggie, if not more will threaten Caribbean islands and the United States. Basically, everyone even remotely near the coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine should keep an eye on the tropics through the autumn, just in case.

Right On Cue, Tropical Atlantic Bubbling Up With Possible Storms

Thunderstorms bubble on Friday off the east coast of Florida. This
will probably turn into a tropical storm. Image via NOAA/RAMMB

The oceans always know what season it is.

In the Atlantic Ocean, late August is often the time when tropical storms and potential hurricanes really start to ramp up toward their September peak.

It looks like this year is no exception. The Atlantic Ocean is suddenly bubbling with at least potential activity. Right now, there are no dire threats, but there are things to watch.

We mentioned weak Tropical Storm Chantal a couple days ago.  It dissipated as expected. Its remains are several hundred miles west of the Azore Islands. It could possibly redevelop, but I wouldn't worry about that right now.

What is a bit more worrisome is a developing storm that the National Hurricane Center said this morning was over southern Florida. Over land, things don't develop into tropical storms. But this little storm is expected to move northeastward off the east central Florida coast, where it could easily turn into a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center gives this area of thunderstorms a 90 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm in the next few days.

You do have to watch tropical storms and wannabe hurricanes near the Florida east coast.They can come north and affect us here in New England. In this case, though, it looks like this wannabe tropical storm will want to move northeast, and stay well off the East Coast.

It could turn into a hurricane out there, so there will probably be some high surf issues on East Coast beaches in the coming days. This thing could also brush southeastern Canada. We'll see.

The wannabe hurricane might also help to stall a cold front midweek approaching from the Great Lakes. That would possibly delay or prolong a period of showery weather around Wednesday up here in Vermont. Again, we'll see how that turns out. It's so uncertain now.

There's another area of disturbed weather way out in the central Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. It is heading west to northwest and has a pretty high chance of turning into another tropical storm

This path eventually toward the Caribbean is a classic one for peak season tropical storms and hurricanes.  It's not clear how well this thing will develop, or even whether it will hold together as it possibly nears the Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,  Cuba and maybe Florida many, many days from now.

I can't see an immediate threat from this, but it needs to be watched carefully over the next week or two.

Florence: Category 2 Hurricane But Category 5 Flood Threat

Today's satelllite view of Hurricane Florence

As of this morning, the winds in Hurricane Florence aren't quite as ferocious as originally expected, but nobody in the Carolinas or elsewhere should relax over this.

The catastrophic flood threat, always the real story with this hurricane, is just as bad or worse than it's been.

Upper level winds near the Florence have degraded the hurricane a bit, which explains why the winds have dropped to a still-formidable 110 mph. Little change in strength is expected before landfall tomorrow morning.

What Florence has lost in wind strength is has made up for in size. The hurricane is expanded, which means it can still generate very intense coastal storm surge. Strong, damaging winds will cover a wider area, too.

As of this morning, hurricane force winds extended outward some 80 miles from the center of Florence, and tropical storm force wind were as far as 195 miles from the storm center, says the National Hurricane Center.

All this means Hurricane Florence can still generate a storm surge of nine to 13 feet high along parts of the North Carolina coastline. Damaging storm surges are a big threat across the entire coastlines of South and North Carolina and southern Virginia.

The surges will be accompanied by huge, battering waves. An offshore wave that was 80 feet tall was detected with Florence yesterday. That's roughly the height of an eight-story building. As you can see, anyone who has not evacuated from areas under storm surge warnings are extremely foolish.

Before and after pictures after a storm surge from Hurricane Ike wrecked
parts of the Texas coastline on this date in 2008.
Hurricane Florence is a similar storm and might have similar effects. 

Florence reminds me of Hurricane Ike, which hit the Texas coast on this date in 2008. It, too, "weakened" to a Category 2 storm before landfall, but its size expanded very much like Florence has. The result was a terrible storm surge that washed away countless coastal homes and buildings in Texas.

Hurricane Ike killed 21 people in the United States. Some of those were people who ignored evacuation orders and drowned in the storm surge.   The coastline of Texas is flat, like North Carolina's. The Ike storm surge in Texas extended inland as far as 18 miles. 

So you see what we're up against.

Hurricane Florence has always been odd. It took a weird, unprecedented path toward the U.S. East Coast, it strengthened, weakened and strengthened again rapidly, and as it approaches the coast, it is expected to take a slow curve to the southwest, down the North Carolina coast toward South Carolina, then inland.

Meteorologist Marshall Shepherd, writing in Forbes said: "In my 27 years of professional experience, I have never seen some of the projected characteristics or behavior of Hurricane Florence."

The forward pace of Florene will be excruciatingly slow, much slower than most hurricanes, which is why everybody is so worried about the epic rainfall expected with this. If Florence moves slowly, as expected, it has time to dump record amounts of rain, which of course would produce record flooding.

Forecasts continue to call for two to three FEET of rain in southern North Carolina, especially around Wilmington, North Carolina. This downpour should start today, and anyone who lives near a river or any waterway should get out, pronto.

Some of the flooding will be made even worse because storm surges will block water from flowing out of channels and rivers with outlets to the sea. The water will just back up into  more and more neighborhoods.

I've seen it said on social media the Hurricane Florence is a Category 2 storm but a Category 5 flood threat. I certainly buy that.

The outer bands of Hurricane Florence were beginning to affect coastal North Carolina this morning. Conditions will keep going downhill all day today.

ATLANTIC BUSY, IN ADDITION TO FLORENCE

Lots of storms in addition to Florence to watch in the Atlantic

As if forecasters didn't have their hands full enough with Florence, the Atlantic Ocean is about as busy as it can possibly get in terms of tropical storms.

Including Florence, there are four tropical storms or hurricanes spinning out there, and a potential one in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Helene is weakening as it heads northward in the open Atlantic. It will become a gusty non-tropical storm that could hit Ireland in a few days.

Tropical Storm Isaac is heading into the Caribbean Sea and is remaining weak. It might even fall apart within the next few days. Still, some computer models suggest it might regenerate once it gets further west in a few days, so we'll have to keep an eye on it.

Subtropical Storm Joyce is expected to become a purely tropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean within a couple days, but it poses no threat to land.

An area of showers and storms in the western Gulf of Mexico will likely hit land before it can develop into a tropical storm. However, it will spread heavy rains into northeastern Mexico and Texas, which raises a flood threat.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Been Mercifully Quiet, But..... Also, Another Vermont Heat Record

This map issued Tuesday shows where there are chances of
tropical storm development between now and September 5
Blue areas are the lowest chances. The warmer the colors,
the higher the chances. Dark red means there's a high
chance of some sort of tropical system. 

During most days in the past two weeks the National Hurricane Center home page has chirped that there were no tropical cyclones expected in the immediate future in the Atlantic Ocean.

That was welcome news after last year. We're now getting into the peak of hurricane season, and unlike last year's devastation, it's been pretty mellow in the Atlantic Ocean.

For so many days in late August, the National Hurricane Center Atlantic Ocean Tropical Outlook kept saying that no tropical activity was expected in the next day or two.

That's a marked contrast to last August, when all those super hurricanes, Harvey, Irma and Maria, were ongoing or about to rev up to cause extreme devastation. It's been a nice August in that respect.

Now, signs are emerging that the Atlantic is waking up, just in time for the true peak of the hurricane season. At this point, nobody is sure what will happen in the next month regarding tropical storms and hurricanes. It seems clear things are about to start forming, but whether they hit, where they hit, and how bad they will be if they do hit is totally an open question.

Computer models are hinting at a fair amount of activity. As Dr. Rick Knabb, the hurricane expert at the Weather Channel tweeted on Thursday: "When models start suggesting tropical cyclone many days in advance in multiple parts of the Atlantic basin, while they might not be right about exactly when and where, it does indicate that the atmosphere is changing and it's about to get busy overall in September."

Factors that were working against the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic are starting to wane.  Water temperatures in a broad area of the Atlantic where many destructive hurricanes form, off the west coast of Africa, had been cooler than normal.

Cooler water inhibits the development of tropical storms. By the way, water temperatures there were above normal last August in September, which partly explains why 2017 was such a destructive hurricane season.

In recent days, that water has warmed up to levels that are close to normal for this time of hear.

Additional, wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and other parts of the Atlantic was stronger than normal and are now subsiding to near normal levels for this time of year. Wind shear consists of strong upper level winds. These strong winds tear tropical storms and hurricanes apart, and prevent new ones from forming.

Strong wind shear is why Hurricane Lane, a dangerous hurricane, abruptly fell apart south of Hawaii last week. Those strong high level winds tore it to shreds.

A few areas are being watched in particular. The Gulf of Mexico over the past few days has been bubbling with numerous thunderstorms. That indicates the air is unstable over the Gulf, and that could, maybe produce a tropical storm.

A tropical wave, which is an area of thunderstorms that doesn't have any kind of real circulation, was over the Lesser Antilles Thursday. That would could develop as it heads to the west or northwest.

Finally, another tropical wave is about to emerge off the west coast of Africa. That is very likely to develop into a tropical storm and threaten the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic in the coming days.

We're lucky hurricanes weren't developing in July and August. The weather pattern that brought copious amounts of heat and humidity, plus drenching, flood producing rains along much of the East Coast, would have steered tropical storms right into this area, making the flooding exponentially worse than it was.

It's possible this dangerous weather pattern, which is still sort of, kinda in place, could really re-establish itself, which would put the East Coast in danger. This is purely speculation an NOT a forecast, so don't let me get you into a tizzy. I'll tell if and when it's time to panic. Better yet, the National Weather Service would tell you all this.

ANOTHER HEAT RECORD

Storm "damage" in my yard after a mid-afternoon storm Wednesday.
The storm dropped the temperature from 95 to 84 so I was grateful
for the relief, even though I'll have to remove these branches.

Burlington, Vermont hit another milestone in its record hot summer. The temperature there Wednesday reached 97 degrees, breaking the record high for the date set in 1977.

This would have been the hottest temperature in Burlington for so late in the season if not for a heat wave in September 2002 that brought a temperature of 98 to the Queen City.

Wednesday's  97 is also tied for the hottest temperature of the year in this hot summer.

Other record highs on Wednesday included 95 degrees in Plattsburgh, New York and 76 degrees top Mount Mansfield, Vermont.

There were only a handful of reports of minor damage from borderline severe thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening. There reports of trees down near Chazy, New York and in Essex County, Vermont.

An isolated storm at midafternoon came over my place in St. Albans. We went from sun to stormy gusts in the 45 mph range and then sun once again within 10 minutes.  A dead tree fell onto my yard causing no damage. A few small branches came down in St. Albans and Fairfield. No biggie.

If you stepped outside the this morning, you'll notice how refreshingly cool it is. Today and tomorrow will easily be the "coldest" two day stretch of this August. Highs today will only be in the low 70s, and tonight will get down into the 40s, with low 50s closer to Lake Champlain.

Friday looks great, too, with continued low humidity and high temperatures in the 70s. By the way, such weather is normal for this time of year. August, 2018 will definitely go down as the hottest on record.

Enjoy while you can, because the warmth and humidity will return by Sunday and continue into at least the first part of next week. Although it won't be as hot as it's been recently, the humidity will surely be uncomfortable.

Tropics Starting To Bubble Before Hurricane Season Even Hits

From left to right: Hurricanes Katia, Irma and Jose last year. 

Last year in the Atlantic Ocean, the hurricane season was horrific.

Harvey. Irma. Maria. I shudder just thinking about those deadly, destructive storms.

Hurricane season starts May 15 in the eastern Pacific Ocean and June 1 in the Atlantic Ocean, but there are already signs that things might start to get active soon, even before the officials start of the tropical storm season.

There won't be anything like Harvey or Maria in the near future, thank goodness, but there a couple things worth watching

There's a decent chance a tropical storm could form in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico in the coming days. Most of storms that form there don't hit land but a few do. If this particular disturbance forms, it will be the second year in a row a tropical storm formed there before the May 15 "official" start to the season.

In any event, if this storm gets going, forecasters say it won't last long and won't hit land.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, some computer models are suggesting something might get going in the western Caribbean Sea late next week. I'm not counting on it though. Other computer models have nothing there next week.

However, water temperatures in the western Caribbean are warmer than normal for this time of year and are toasty enough to support tropical storms. Also, this time of year, the jet stream is usually far enough south to rip apart any tropical storms that try to form in the Caribbean, but the jet stream is expected to be further north than usual for a time next week, which could offer a window for tropical storm development.

Off the coast of Chile, a subtropical storm formed this week. That's very rare, since ocean waters off the Chilean coast are usually too cold to support any kind of tropical system. (Tropical storms and hurricanes need very warm water to form and thrive.)

A rare subtropical storm off the coast of Chile this week.

Subtropical storms have characteristics of both tropical storms and normal average everyday storm systems.

Such a storm had not been seen off the coast of Chile until now. Some may have formed in the past, though, before there was decent satellite imagery coming from that area in the southern hemisphere.

Even if the hurricane season gets off to an early start, that doesn't necessarily mean this will be a busy, destructive season. It's partly a matter of luck. If any big hurricanes form, will they stay out to sea or hit land?  Will weather conditions and water temperatures conspire to give birth to lots of storms later this year? Nobody knows for sure.

For what it's worth, Colorado State University puts out hurricane season forecasts every year, and they're predicting a slightly above normal season in the Atlantic. The Weather Company, parent of the Weather Channel, predicts a near average season. 

One thing to note: Some of last year's most destructive Atlantic hurricanes developed explosively. They went from nothingburgers to monsters in days or even hours.   Some scientists are saying this kind of rapid, dangerous development could become more common as oceans warm under the influence of global warming.

Meanwhile, we're in the heart of the severe storm and tornado season in the United States. So far, it hasn't been too bad. As of today, there have been 317 reports of tornadoes in the United States in 2018. That sounds like a lot, but it's actually below average.

Maybe that trend will continue?

As Predicted, The Tropics Are Very Active With Storms

A disorganized Tropical Storm Harvey in the Windward Islands
Friday. It is expected to get better organized and strengthen

The tropical Atlantic Ocean, as expected, is bubbling with lots of tropical activity - a tropical storm, a hurricane that just died, and other disturbances that could form into nasty storms.  

Hurricane Gert died its expected death over the cold North Atlantic waters yesterday -- hurricanes can't maintain themselves over cold water. When they go too far north they turn into regular storms are just disappear off the face of the earth.

Gert was replaced Thursday with Tropical Storm Harvey. It was in the Windward Islands this morning, making a beeline almost due west. It could strengthen into a hurricane, and will probably hit somewhere around Belize or Hondurias or southern Mexico somewhere around Tuesday or Wednesday.

We're ahead of schedule with tropical storms in the Atlantic, though fortunately most have either been weak or hit relatively unpopulated areas. Tropical storms and hurricanes are named in alphabetical order. We normally don't get up to "H" until late September.

The race through the hurricane alphabe might be poised to continue.

Not far to the northeast of Harvey is another area of disturbed weather that forecasters think has a good chance of becoming a tropical storm. If that happens, they'll name it Irma.

If Irma forms, it's possible it could threaten Cuba, the Bahamas or Florida later next week, though we're certainly not sure of that yet.

Forecasters are also watching another patch of thunderstorms way out over the eastern Atlantic because that would could potentially develop into Tropical Storm Jose. We'll see.

Looks Like My Namesake Tropical Storm Is Going To Form Soon

An area of disturbed weather east of the Lesser Antilles and
northeast of South America is getting organized,
and will probably become Tropical Storm Matthew soon.  

It looks very, very likely Tropical Storm Matthew will form way out over the Atlantic Ocean soon.

Great. They're naming wannabe hurricanes after me now.

The potential is there for this thing to actually become a dangerous hurricane, but there is so much uncertainty with this thing I'd hate to hazard a guess.

Wannabe Matthew is heading toward the Lesser Antilles and will produce squally weather there tonight and Wednesday.

From there, it will head toward the Caribbean Sea, where water temperatures are wicked hot to a pretty far depth. That's bait for storms like this to strengthen rapidly, so it could quickly become a hurricane in the coming days.

That is, if things like interaction with land or unfavorably strong winds don't mess with it. We'll have to wait and see.

With the potential for Wannabe Matthew to become a hurricane, it's something to watch.  Cuba and Hispaniola are two places that should really watch this thing.

It could become a threat anywhere from southern Mexico to the southeastern U.S. coast next week, or it could turn sharply northeast and avoid the United States altogether. As you can see, nobody knows what Wannabe Matthew has up its sleeve.  

Wannabe Matthew is just like me: It doesn't know how big a punch it wants to land, and it doesn't really know where it's headed.

Stay tuned.

Another Tropics Update: Things Are Damn Busy!

That tropical disturbance that has been hyped for a week
now is still NOT a big deal now that it's gotten south
of Florida. But now it's showing signs of spinning up
a little better and could become a tropical storm
in the next few days in the Gulf of Mexico.  

As of Sunday afternoon, the activity regarding tropical storms, hurricanes and wannabe tropical storms and hurricanes is getting fast and furious.

All KINDS of things are happening. Whether any of these will be a huge threat to life and property, especially here in the United States, is open to question, but it's all something that we should watch.

INVEST 99L

Let's start with that thing everybody in Weather Land has been talking about for days and days, known as Invest 99L.

The National Hurricane Center gives an "Invest" name to anything it's watching that could develop into a tropical storm.

Invest 99L has been the subject of all the buzz for days. That's because at least a week ago, some of the weather models have been saying it could be a HUGE threat to the United States. Other computer models said, "Pffft." but it's more fun to hype catastrophe than a big yawn.

Anyway, Invest 99L has been making its way westward across the tropical Atlantic. By the time it got near the Bahamas Friday, some computer models said it would be a monster, but of course it isn't.

Right now it's getting into the Florida straights and heading toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Soon, the time might be ripe for Invest 99L to get going. Upper level winds had been tearing apartany attempts by Invest 99L to develop into a tropical storm.  But as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, those high level winds will diminish a little bit.

Plus, the Gulf of Mexico water is very, very warm, which could help this thing get going. The National Hurricane Center, which had been sort of bored by this system as it was in the Atlantic, is perking up with some concern.

They now give Invest 99L a high chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next few days. That could pose a wind and especially heavy rain threat, most likely to some spots in the eastern half of the U.S Gulf Coast in the coming days.

Once it reaches the Gulf Coast in a few days (if it does actually make landfall) nobody has a clue as to what it will do after that.

Everybody thought this would be the next tropical storm, and it would be named Hermine. However, a surprise happened west of Bermuda overnight.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT

An area of showers and thunderstorms not far from Bermuda was sputtering and struggling the past few days as dry air prevented things from getting going.

You can see a swirl in the middle of this satellite shot from Sunday
where the center of the tropical depression is, but that big
white clump you see is thunderstorms being torn westward
away from the center by strong upper level winds. That
means this thing probably won't get much stronger. A 

But in a bit of a surprise, this weather disturbance grew into a tropical depression, which is a step shy of a tropical storm.

Chances are it will strengthen to Tropical Storm Hermine in the next day or so, but it won't get super ultra strong. Upper level winds are ripping thunderstorms away from its center, which is hurting it, and the air is still kinda dry nearby.

Still, it could side swipe the North Carolina Outer Banks with gusty winds, rough seas, rip currents and locally heavy rains Tuesday or Wedneday before it turns and heads out to sea.

HURRICANE GASTON

The bad news is Hurricane Gaston out in the Atlantic Ocean is strong and getting stronger. The good news is it doesn't appear to be any kind of threat to the United States. At last check, it was well east of Bermuda with sustained winds of 105 mph. Yikes!

Hurricane Gaston looking strong and healthy out in the
middle of the Atlantic Ocean Sunday. No threat to the United States, though. A 

It might strengthen a bit more as it sort of hangs out there not going much of anywhere for the next few days, but then it will head off into the North Atlantic to die.

SOMETHING IN NIGERIA

A strong wave of stormy weather is in Nigeria this weekend and will soon head westward, head out of Africa and into the eastern Atlantic. There's a strong chance this thing could develop into a hurricane, but don't believe any hype on this one yet

If it does end up threatening the United States, which is iffy, it would do so in about 10 to 14 days.
Don't worry about this one yet.

HAWAII

There's a couple potential tropical storm threats for Hawaii over the next week or so.

Hurricane Lester with 85 mph sustained winds, is chugging westward across the Pacific Ocean, and is sort of headed toward Hawaii. If it makes it there, it would be sometime next weekend, so people in the Aloha State will have to keep an eye on our buddy Lester.

Before Lester gets near Hawaii, the islands will have to contend with Tropical Storm Madeline, which will be near Hawaii midweek. It should weaken by the time it gets there, but it could unleash some torrential rains and flash flooding to parts of Hawaii in the next few days.

TYPHOON LIONROCK

A typhoon named Lionrock is threatening Japan. Isn't that a great name for a typhoon or hurricane?

This isn't so great for Japan, though. It's threatening to hit the central or northern parts of Japan with winds of up to 75 or 80 mph and torrential, flooding rains this week. Could be big trouble for them.

Tropical Trouble: The Latest On A Now Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

Tropical Depression Fiona looked, well, depressing
Tuesday morning, taking the form of just a few
thunderstorms over the open Atlantic. 

Yesterday, I noted how we shouldn't trust long range forecasts for tropical storms and hurricanes because a lot can change.

Of course I stand by that, but since there is a lot of activity in the Atlantic Ocean right now, I should give an update.

FIONA:

Tropical Storm Fiona weakened to a tropical depression yesterday and was still barely hanging on as a depression as of early this morning, says the National Hurricane Center.

Strong upper level winds keep tearing apart any efforts by Fiona to generate new thunderstorms, and dry air surrounding the storm - if you can really call it a storm.

The strong upper level winds are going to weaken, says the NHC, which might suggest Fiona would want to make something of a comeback. But it's still going to be embedded in dry air, which would make regeneration that much harder.

Fiona is headed toward the northwest, and theoretically it could reach North Carolina eventually,  but at this point at least, it doesn't look like it will turn into much of anything.

Unlike, say Tropical Storm Gaston

GASTON

Tropical Storm Gaston didn't look like a classic
hurricane yet Tuesday morning, but you can see
it has lots of vigorous thunderstorms and it
is spinning up pretty well.  

Ever since it emerged off the African coast the other day, what would become Tropical Storm Gaston looked like it really had a future and still does.

Gaston has been developing rapidly, and looks great on satellite imagery.

 By great I mean well organized. And it's already trying to develop an eye, which is impressive since the storm was still a 50 mph tropical storm Tuesday morning.

The bad news is Gaston looks like it has the potential at least to grow into a powerful hurricane. The good news at this point is it looks like, at least for now, Gaston is going to avoid hitting land.

Gaston wants to head toward the northwest, into the middle of the open Atlantic Ocean.  Given the uncertainly of long range forecasts, there's a slight chance it could slightly impact New England or maybe more so eastern Canada eventually, but that's a long shot. Don't hold your breath on this one, especially you New Englanders.

I won't hazard a guess on whether Gaston will have any effect on North America or not. But the southeast coast, and the islands in the Caribbean are safe from Gaston, I'm pretty sure of that.

Unlike something else brewing down in the Atlantic.

NO-NAME DISTURBANCE

There's a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms heading westward toward the Leeward Islands. This is the disturbance that's generating all the Internet clickbait.

That's because a few models have this thing growing into a hurricane that would hit somewhere in the southeastern United States.

This big patch of thunderstorms heading westbound
toward the Leeward Islands could develop
into a tropical storm later this week.  

Don't count on that. Especially not yet. It's still highly uncertain how big this disturbance will get and where it will head.

Right now, the National Hurricane Center says environmental conditions are good enough so that it might slowly develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next few days.

It's heading in a direction such that regardless of how strong it gets, it has a good shot of dumping heavy rain and possible flash floods on the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

From there, what could become a tropical storm or even hurricane might threaten the Bahamas or the southeastern United States in a week or so.

Again, that's not a promise or a guarantee. It could move harmelessly out to sea, or not develop much or do any number of things. It's just something to keep an eye on, in case it does become a threat to the United States

Atlantic Hurricane Season Ramping Up

The National Hurricane Center is watching
two disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean that could
become tropical storms. The X's are where they were
Friday morning, and the yellow and orange shaded
areas indicate possible forecast paths for the disturbances.A

There's a couple areas of bad weather way out over the eastern Atlantic Ocean that have some potential to turn into tropical storms or hurricanes.

They may or may not, and even if they do, chances - so far anyway - indicate they won't hit the United States.

But the fact there are suddenly two areas out in that part of Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center is watching means we are now getting into the meat of the hurricane season.

Tropical storms can form almost anywhere in the Atlantic where the water temperature is warm enough. (These storms need very warm water to survive)

Once you get into August and September, though, potentially the most dangerous storms form.

During this time of year, weather disturbances move westward and emerge off the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic.

Some of these disturbances make a long journey westward, and a few of those take advantage of warm water and favorable atmospherics to become hurricanes. Since these storms are out over water for so long, they have plenty of time to develop.

These storms are called Cape Verde hurricanes because they originate near that area. If the Cape Verde hurricanes can hang together, and not get ripped apart by high winds in the upper reaches of the atmosphere, or curve northward as many do, the can cause real trouble for the United States.

Many of the worst hurricanes in American history were Cape Verde hurricanes. This includes a Florida hurricane in 1928 that killed more than 1,800 people, and the Great Long Island/New England hurricane of 1938 that killed more than 600 people.

Cape Verde hurricanes can strike the United States anywhere along the Atlantic Coast between Brownsville, Texas and Eastport, Maine.

If you live anywhere along the coast, now is the time to see if you've got the supplies or readiness to prepare your property for a hurricane. You don't want to start that if and when such a storm is already heading your way.

By the way, much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is toasty warm - warmer than normal. That is one factor that could make this year's Cape Verde hurricanes this year perhaps more frequent and stronger than they otherwise would be.

Plus, it's been a decade since a major hurricane has made landfall in the United States, so we're overdue. It's the roll of the dice.

Yet ANOTHER Early Tropical Storm Might Form

That patch of clouds in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday could become Tropical Storm Danielle 

UPDATE Mon. Morning:

This disturbance did indeed strengthen to Tropical Storm Danielle early this morning.

As I noted Sunday, this is the earliest the fourth tropical storm of the year has formed in the Atlantic Ocean.

Danielle remains weak and disorganized. Top sustained winds are 40 mph, making it barely tropical storm strength.

It'll move inland today and then dissipate, causing some flash flooding in parts of Mexico in the process.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There's an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche, off Mexico's east coast that could become a tropical storm by Monday.

If it does become a tropical storm, it will easily be the earliest on record the fourth tropical storm of the year formed in the Atlantic Basin. If it becomes a tropical storm, they'll name it Danielle.

The would-be tropical storm was an area of showers and thunderstorms in the far western Gulf of Mexico Sunday afternoon.

The storms were slowly becoming more organized, and the National Hurricane Center gave it an 80 percent chance of becoming at least a tropical depression.

A tropical depression is a weak version of a tropical storm, and are not given names. If sustained winds with this thing go up to 39 mph or more, it'll become Tropical Storm Danielle.

Wannabe Danielle doesn't have much time to strengthen before it makes landfall in Mexico Monday. Once it comes ashore, it'll dissipate, but not before dropping heavy rains that could lead to flash floods.

The chances of wannabe Danielle reaching hurricane strength -75 mph winds - is almost nil.  This storm will also not affect weather in the United States to any great extent.

Just because the start of the Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season has been very busy doesn't necessarily mean this will be a blockbuster year for such storms.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting an average year for hurricanes and tropical storms. El Nino, which tends to suppress Atlantic tropical storm activity is dead, and probably will be replaced by La Nina.

La Nina is a cool patch of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean that influences weather patterns and can make Atlantic Ocean tropical storms and hurricanes more likely. But again, we're not looking at an extreme year.

Still, it only takes one powerhouse of a hurricane hitting the United States to cause an epic disaster.

We've gone a record number of years without a major hurricane striking the U.S. coast, so we're way overdue.

A major hurricane is one with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Plus, it doesn't take a major hurricane to cause epic damage.  Superstorm Sandy in 2012 was transitioning into a non-tropical storm, but caused an immense disaster along the East Coast.

In 2011, Hurricane Irene became a tropical storm with winds dropping below 75 mph soon after landfall on the East Coast, but still caused record flooding and lots of deaths in New York and Vermont.

Danielle won't be much of a threat to the United States, but we still need to keep an eye out for dangerous tropical storms and hurricanes, especially as the hurricane season ramps up in August and September.

Tropical Storms In January? Very Odd

In the Northern Hemisphere, you pretty much never get tropical storms, hurricanes or typhoons in January.

Widespread clouds and storminess well off the East Coast of the United
States could evolve into a subtropical storm in several days
as it continues heading east and south.

These storms thrive on warm ocean temperatures and light jet stream winds high above any would-be tropical system.

In January, the oceans tend to be too cool, the jet stream too strong to get much of anything going.  

But there are exceptions, and this year is one.

Much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is unusually warm, thanks in large part to El Nino. That allowed a rare tropical storm named Pali to form about 1,000 miles southwest of Hawaii.

Pali is no threat to land, and will fall apart soon. But it is an emphatic bookend to perhaps the most active eastern and central Pacific hurricane season on record.

Meanwhile, there's potential trouble in the Atlantic, too.

There's a large storm, centered a little north of Bermuda, packing winds of up to 65 mph. It's not a tropical storm. It's a more typical strong, winter type storm that is common in the North Atlantic in January.

However, this one could move southeastward and head out over warmer Atlantic waters. Water that is even warmer than normal for this time of year.

If that happens, this storm could take on what is called subtropical characteristics.

A normal winter storm has a cold core. A tropical storm has a warm one. A subtropical storm, like what the Atlantic Ocean one might turn into, would retain some characteristics of a "normal" storm, but develop a warm core, with tropical thunderstroms spinning around that toasty center.

The National Hurricane Center says if this becomes a subtropical or even tropical storm, it would be named Alex. Normally, hurricane and tropical storm season starts June 1, so this would be very odd.

This one poses no immediate threat to land.

There have been a handful of tropical and subtropical storms in January over the Atlantic Ocean.

In modern history, there have been no fewer than five tropical or subtropical storms in the Atlantic in January. Two were holdovers from the previous December, but three actually formed in January.

At least one, Alice, which formed in December, 1954 briefly became a full-fledged hurricane in early January, 1955.

As I said, though. This situation, if it develops is rare. It's certainly a stormy winter anyway in the Northern Hemisphere, and these tropical or potential subtropical storms are adding to that mix

Erika Still Dead(it) But Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Abound

Major hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena lined
up in the Pacific Ocean.  

The much-discussed Tropical Storm Erika, now dead as noted yesterday, is still a zombie torturing Florida.

The dead-ish storm is still producing gusty winds and heavy rains in Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba.

There's still a slight chance Erika will regenerate into a bonafide tropical storm as it heads into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but don't count on it.

That doesn't matter anyway. Winds will still gust to 40 mph in parts of Florida, and more importantly, drenching rains will hit the state.

As I said yesterday, to an extent that's good, because South Florida has been in a drought. But these tropical rains are too much too fast, so flooding is definitely a problem.

The remnants of Erika will probably eventually head into the Florida panhandle and the southeastern United States later this week with more heavy rain and possible flooding there.

Now, we have a new Atlantic tropical storm named Fred.

Welcome to the world, Fred!

Fred was a disturbance that came off the African west coast the other day. It developed remarkably rapidly after getting out into the Atlantic. Usually it takes a few days, but this one revved up.

The National Hurricane Center said Fred is only the fourth tropical storm they know of, out of many hundreds, that formed east of 19W longitude.

True, Fred was only packing winds of 40 mph early Sunday morning, but it's expected to strengthen quickly into a hurricane and threaten the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic over the next couple of days.

After that, Fred will head out into the open Atlantic, where it might encounter the kinds of strong upper level winds that destroyed Hurricane Danny and Tropical Storm Erika. Even if it survives, Fred poses no immediate threat to land after it leaves  the Cape Verde Islands.

PACIFIC OCEAN

The Pacific Ocean continues to be wild in the hurricane department. For the first time in modern history, there were three major hurricanes lined up in the central and eastern Pacific - Kilo, Jimena and Ignacio.

As you can see in the photo at the top of the post, these three hurricanes lined up are quite a sight on satellite photos.

Ignacio is the one that is being most closely watched. It is expected to skirt east and north of Hawaii, but come close enough to produce tropical storm force winds on the Big Island of Hawaii and other nearby islands. Flooding is a risk, too.

Tropical storm warnings are up for Hawaii, a place that has had a very stormy late summer, with near miss tropical storms and downpours aided and abetted by El Nino.

Hawaii is definitely not the sunny tropical paradise it usually is.

Hurricane Season In Full Force With Lots To Watch, Right Danny?

This mornings' satellite imagery shows tiny little
Hurricane Danny well east of the lesser Antilles, but headed their way.  

UPDATE:

Boy, Danny Boy got pretty rambunctious since I first wrote about him this morning (see the previous discussion below.)

Maximum sustained winds are up to a whopping 115 mph, making is a strong, Category 3 hurricane.

It's much stronger than I think most forecasters ever thought it would get.

Like I said earlier, small sized hurricanes can strengthen and weaken much faster than normal sized hurricanes.

Danny is a little bigger in area now that what I described this morning, but he's still pretty tiny, in area, for a hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center says Danny appears to be peaking in strength as of mid-afternoon Friday, but will soon start to weaken as upper level winds and dry dusty air interfere with the system.

Still, Danny has surprised us once, he could surprise us again. Even if it does weaken, who knows if it might eventually gain back some strength many days down the road as it possible approaches the Bahamas after going through or near Puerto Rico next week?

Time will tell.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
We've known for months the current El Nino ocean and weather pattern would tamp down on tropical storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean this year.

But nobody said El Nino would get rid of these storms completely. With the peak of the hurricane season now at hand, there's definitely stuff to talk about there.

The main star of this tropical show is of course Hurricane Danny. It's a tiny little thing, giving us the label "microcane" to describe it.

No doubt the wind is strong and dangerous. Sustained winds were 85 mph near Danny's eye. But the area of hurricane force winds is just 10 miles across. If you put Danny in the middle of Lake Champlain off of Burlington, Vermont,  the hurricane force winds would barely touch the Vermont and New York shorelines.

The cloud area of Danny Boy is so tiny that if you put it in the middle of Vermont, the sun would be peeking out near the Canadian and Massachusetts borders.

Compare that to the cloud shield of notorious Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which basically filled up the entire Gulf of Mexico.

FORECAST FOR DANNY 

When hurricanes are teeny, tiny like Danny Boy, they can either intensify super fast, or fall apart just as fast. That makes forecasting Danny a challenge.

The National Hurricane Center says Danny is in a sweet spot today over very warm oceans and low wind shear, which means that strong upper level winds won't blow the top off the storm and wreck it.

These strong upper level winds over the tropical Atlantic are very common and unusually strong when there's an El Nino, so that's why we're not expecting as many hurricanes as we've had in past years.

Also, there's  masses of dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert that have blown across the Atlantic. That happens a lot, too, and that dry dusty air suppresses hurricanes. Danny is now in a spot that doesn't have such dry air.

Danny is moving to the west, and he's going to encounter two of the things that can weaken hurricanes: OK, the water is going to stay very warm in Danny's path, and hurricanes love warm water to feed off of and strengthen. So Danny has that going for him.

But the wind shear overhead is going to increase, and some of that dusty Saharan air might get scooped into Danny. That would weaken it, definitely. And remember I said Danny is a small little guy, so the wind shear and dusty air could easily bully him into weakening.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say they think Danny is going to go over the the Lesser Antilles, then maybe head toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic early next week.

That's not necessarily a bad thing. Puerto Rico is going through an intense drought, worse than California, really. They're rationing water there. If the winds of Danny die down, but his heavy rains continue, that could help Puerto Rico some if Danny continues on his expected path.

Land interaction makes hurricanes weaken,  again especially with small ones like Danny, so hitting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could possibly even finish Danny off.

If he does survive, I have no idea if he'll make it to the United States eventually. Nobody else does, either. If Danny does manage to get to the United States nobody has any idea where, or with what strength. So ignore the online click bait that says the United States is in for it with Danny. Amirite, AOL.com, purveyors of online weather click bait?

OTHER ATLANTIC THREATS TO WATCH

This time of year, the potentially most dangerous hurricanes come off the west coast of Africa, head toward roughly the Cape Verde islands, and sometimes eventually become monsters as they travel westward over the Atlantic.

We're entering the peak of the Cape Verde type hurricane season, and one disturbance has just emerged off the African coast and is heading west. Another clump of storms is in Africa, and will head off into the Atlantic in a couple days.

Both storms have the potential to turn into horrible hurricanes, but the chances of low. Even in the most favorable hurricane seasons, many of these Cape Verde storms don't develop into anything and just disappear. Or if they do form, some then turn north to die over the chilly waters of the North Atlantic without hitting any land or harming anybody.

Remember, this is an El Nino year, so these African/Cape Verde systems are even more likely than usual to die a quick death as strong upper level winds tear them apart. But these two systems are worth watching to see what, if anything develops over the next week or two.  There's a chance they could make it.

There's another system south of Bermuda. It's just a plain old disorganized low pressure system with a mess of willy-nilly showers and thunderstorms. But it could take on some tropical storm characteristics in the next few days. Even if it does, there's no immediate threat to land.

HAWAII

I'm actually saving the potentially biggest hurricane threat to American soil for last. Out in the eastern and central Pacific, El Nino has the opposite effect on hurricanes than it does in the Atlantic.

The ocean out there is unusually warm because of El Nino, which makes for a better environment for hurricanes to form and grow. Wind shear isn't that high, so hurricanes are less likely to get torn apart than usual.

Hawaii isn't threatened all that often by hurricanes, but occasionally they do get them. Hawaii is much more under threat than usual this year with the strong El Nino heating up the nearby oceans.

Especially if a hurricane takes an unusual track from the south, where the ocean is warmer, rather than the east, where the water is a bit cooler.

Enter something now with the boring name of Tropical Depression 3-C. It's a disorganized mess of storminess way off to the southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. But forecasters think it will strengthen over warm water as it heads west to northwest south of Hawaii.

But here's the problem. Upper level winds might eventually steer the storm northward and it could come close to the western Hawaiin island toward the early or middle part of next week as a full fledged hurricane. They'll name it Kilo if it becomes a full fledged tropical storm or hurricane.

Remember, if would-be Ignacio indeed comes up from the south, it's more dangerous for Hawaii than if something tried to cross cool water and come at Hawaii from the east.

We don't know this for sure yet, but we better keep an eye on it. Especially if you're in, or planning to vacation in Hawaii.

(Sort Of) Tropical Storm Ana To Form This Week?

One forecast depiction of a possible
subtropical storm named Ana later this week.
This is just one scenario. Forecasters
are uncertain where this storm will go,
how strong it will get and even
whether it will form.  

Well, some of us have suddenly made the leap from winter to summer and skipped over spring.

After what had been a reluctant spring, temperatures soared into the mid-80s around my hacienda in northwestern Vermont.

The 86 degree reading in Burlington, Vermont Tuesday was the first 80 degree reading of the year and the hottest day since Sept. 5, 2014. Still, the hot day fell short of the record high of 89 degrees set in 1944.

The rest of the week will bring more above normal temperatures to the Northeast, including Vermont.

Our basking in the heat is not the only summer like thing going on. An early subtropical storm might form off the southeastern United States coast in the next couple of days.

Tropical systems are normally creatures of the late summer and fall, and Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1, but weather systems don't always follow the calendar or schedules or appointment books.

A few tropical storms or subtropical storms have formed in the past in the Atlantic in May or even April. So this is not unprecedented. Just odd.

True tropical storms and hurricanes have a warm core, as opposed to "traditional" storm systems that have cold cores.

Sometimes you get subtropical storms, which are often "normal" storms and low pressure systems with colder centers that then begin to get some complicated tropical characteristics, like spiraling rain bands and some tall thunderstorms surrounding the center of the system.

This happens when these systems are over warm ocean water. Tropical storms and hurricanes must form over water, and almost always the temperature of the water has to be at least 78, 79 or 80 degrees or warmer.

This warm water helps create these "warm" thunderstorms near the center of the storm, turning a plain old storm into something subtropical. Sometimes the subtropical storm entirely completes a transition to a tropical storm or even hurricane.

The current system is forming as a "normal" low pressure system along an old weather front in the Bahamas.

It might start to acquire some of the properties that characterize tropical storms as it moves north, making this thing a subtropical storm.

Subtropical storms still get names from the National Hurricane Center, and if this one gets going, it will be named "Ana"

It's still not entirely certain if "Ana" will form, and if so, where it will go. The system is going to move slowly, as it will be trapped south of a strong high pressure system that will be giving the Northeast its summery weather over the next several days.

People living in the southeastern U.S. coast from North Carolina to South Florida should be aware would-be Ana could come close enough to the coast to cause heavy rain, gusty winds, and long periods of battering surf that could do a real number on beaches and coastal structures.

The possible early formation of Ana doesn't really say anything about how busy the Atlantic hurricane season will be.

There is an El Nino going on, which is a warm area of water in the Pacific Ocean. When there is an El Nino, there tends to be fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean than usual.

But a few still form, and if one gets big and hits the coast, then you're really screwed. For instance, 1992 was a quiet hurricane year, but one of those hurricanes was Andrew, which devastated South Florida.

Ana most certainly won't be a powerhouse like Andrew. But it's still a reminder for people living along the U.S coast that we're overdue for a major hurricane, and it could come later this summer or autumn.

Cool Image: Nightime Satellite View of Massive North Atlantic Storm Fed By Wicked Jet Stream

From @livingearthapp on Twitter, here's a cool nightime satellite image of a massive storm swirling in the North Atlantic Tuesday night.

Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see.

You can see the lights of western Europe, dawn breaking over Asia, and some of the lights of eastern North America peeking off to the left.

But the main story is that storm. You get big storms in the North Atlantic this time of year, so this is to be expected. But they are beautiful, aren't they?

Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see.

H/T to Anthony Sagliani, @anthonywx on Twitter, for calling this to everyone's attention Tuesday night.

The storm is part of an incredibly fast jet stream that has developed across the North Atlantic, stretching from the northeastern United States all the way to Britain and Scandanavia.

This unusually fast jet stream is having a variety of interesting effects today. It helped strengthen what should have been a weak weather front crossing the Northeast this morning.

The jet pushed air away, making more air rise along the front, so a well defined blast of 1-3 inches of snow in just a couple hours fell in the New York City metro area during the rush hour. Boo! Hiss!

The heavy snow band was heading toward Boston at mid-morning.

Ahead of this front, some of the jet stream's screaming winds have mixed down to the surface over parts of southeastern New England. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph over Cape Cod and the Islands today. 

It's even windy where I live, in the northwestern corner of Vermont. Winds are gusting to about 35 mph at my house this morning.

If you're in a hurry to get to Europe today, or wanted to get there fast yesterday, this screaming jet stream is a good thing.

The high upper level winds pushed airliners bound from the United States to Europe wicked fast. It usually takes a little over six hours to fly from New York to London.

But according to Mashable, British Airways Flight 114 bound from New York to London completed its journey in five hours and 16 minutes.  

A representation of the powerful jet stream
screaming across the North Atlantic this week.  

Other flights had similar fast trips.

Of course, heading from London to New York took longer than usual. You can't have everything.

The fast jet stream is contributing to the development of some strong, very windy storm in northwestern Europe, too.

The storminess, and the jet stream, is feeding off a strong contrast between low pressure to the north, and high pressure to the south. Northern parts of Great Britain, in particular, are caught in the pressure gradient between the north and south.

The Telegraph UK said one of the jet stream-fed storms struck Scotland last night, bringing winds of up to 113 mph to the town of Stornoway. That's the highest wind measured there since 1970.

There is some structural damage, widespread power failures and tree damage in much of Scotland, including in Edinburgh and Glasgow.

It was the same storm that you see in the satellite image at the top of this post.

Storms in Britain, and the jet stream, will calm down a bit over the coming days. But this is the season where you sometimes get especially powerful jet streams in the Northern Hemisphere.

Which is partly why it can get so damn stormy this time of year.

I guess we need to keep hanging on to our hats.