Dorian Mostly Misses Puerto Rico, But Florida Might Be Screwed

Healthy looking Hurricane Dorian, now well north of Puerto Rico
as seen here Thursday morning. 

Hurricane Dorian went through quite a strengthening phase on Wednesday, becoming a hurricane at least two days before most forecasters expected it to.

That it largely missed Puerto Rico is obviously good, since Dorian's peak winds had increased to 85 mph.  Not a lot of new destruction there.

But Dorian didn't interact with land, which means it stayed strong and has a great shot of getting stronger. Florida is still in its sights.

Dorian is still fighting off dry air trying to intrude. A bit of that dry air did get to the core of the storm overnight. But the National Hurricane Center warns that Dorian has a lot going for it. Relatively strong upper level winds, which can squelch hurricanes, are forecast to weaken.

Dorian is over very warm water and will remain over the toasty H2O for the rest of its journey.  That's a recipe for strengthening, and the NHC says rapid strengthening is possible over the next couple of days.

Strength forecasts for hurricanes are very tricky. Anything could happen. But the National Hurricane Center says Dorian could come ashore in Florida with winds of 125 mph - a major, destructive hurricane. Like we need another one, after Harvey, Florence, Irma and Michael over the past couple of years caused so many billions of dollars in damage in the United States.

High pressure to the north is still forecast to keep Hurricane Dorian heading to the northwest, then west toward Florida. The path is still iffy.  And nobody is sure where on the east coast of Florida Dorian might hit. Some models take it to near the Georgia/Florida border. Other models take it as far south as Miami. So the whole state is in play.

The timing now suggests that the worst of Dorian would hit Florida on Monday - Labor Day.

Predictably but wisely, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency, which funnels money and resourses to local governments and emergency managers to get ready for the storm, as The Weather Channel notes. 

People in Florida are spooked and getting ready for the storm. In Orlando, bottled water has already been cleared from shelves by shoppers preparing for Dorian. Lines for gasoline are really long.

However, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says retailers have ordered extra supplies to be available in the days leading up the the hurricane, and gas supplies are still good.

Some coastal flooding is likely well in advance of Dorian, especially around Miami.  Seasonal king tides, will cause some flooding, and the approaching hurricane might help to push a little extra water ashore.

Another thing to note. If Hurricane Dorian hits south Florida, it would eventually emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. That would create a risk Dorian could gather itself up again, organize and become a threat to the Gulf Coast. We'll see.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin fizzled off the United States East Coast. As expected, it contributed to some heavy rain in eastern New England, but there fortunately wasn't a lot of flooding.

Here in Vermont, Erin contributed a bit of moisture to a slow moving cold front, so we benefitted from some decent showers.

Possible Bad News With Tropical Storms Dorian, Erin

Tropical Storm Dorian east of Puerto Rico early this morning. It's
looking more organized than it did yesterday.

As expected, forecasts keep shifting for Tropical Storm Dorian, and as of now, the news is worse for Florida, which could end up taking a nasty hit.

Land interaction, which could have potentially killed Dorian if it went over Puerto Rico or especially the Dominican Republic.  

Now it looks like Tropical Storm Dorian will just clip eastern Puerto Rico before head northwest into warm, open waters, where it could strengthen. That means it won't be over land long enough to get destroyed.

Top sustained winds with Dorian this morning were up to 60 mph, and the Natonal Hurricane Center says the storm definitely looks better organized than yesterday.

Dorian is going to cause problems in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. Puerto Rico is especially vulnerable. Their electrical system is still a mess after Hurricane Maria two years ago. Tropical storm force winds will be enough to wreck the lines once again.

Even more so than yesterday, Florida had better watch out for Dorian. It will be mostly over open water as it moves northwest, then west toward Florida, as it stands now.

Very often, a tropical storm or a hurricane heading northwest near Puerto Rico will curve harmlessly out to sea. But a large high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean looks like it will get in the way, steering Dorian westward toward Florida.

The National Hurricane Center says computer models have Dorian strengthening into a hurricane by Friday and remaining a potentially strong hurricane as it nears the northeast Florida coast on Monday. The NHC also says the hurricane would grow larger in size with time before it hits Florida.

This of course is a preliminary forecast, and the eventual path and strength of Dorian could end up being very different from current forecasts.

But if this prediction stays on track, this would be a rare hurricane hit for northeast Florida. The coastline there sort of curves inward, and hurricanes tend to hit either further south in Florida, or up the coast in the Carolinas.  This one could be serious, and we need to keep an eye on it.

TROPICAL STORM ERIN

That tropical depression off the East Coast yesterday has strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin. It only has sustained winds of 40 mph and won't get much stronger, says the National Hurricane Center. It will also stay well off the East Coast and eventually come ashore somewhere near Nova Scotia late Thursday or early Friday.

So no problem, right?

In this case, wrong. Or at least kinda wrong. A cold front that will give us showers here in Vermont later today will keep trucking deeper into New England. That will draw tropical moisture from Erin northwestward into eastern New England.

Flash flood watches are up for eastern Maine, coastal New Hampshire, eastern and central Massachusetts and Rhode Island later today and tonight. The worst downpours will be hit and miss, but a few spots could get four or five inches of rain in a short period of time, so that's a problem.

Rainfall might be locally  heavy in southeastern Vermont, too, but it likely won't be bad enough to cause any issues.

Tropical Storm Dorian And Other Tropical Updates

Tropical Storm Dorian, as seen in this forecast path,
could make it to Florida by Sunday. But will it survive the trip?

Over the past couple of days little Tropical Storm Dorian has been making its way generally westward across the Atlantic, and still, noboy can figure out how much trouble it will cause.

Dorian is over warm water and there is a lack of strong winds aloft, which favors strengthening.  But it's surrounded by dry air aloft, which is choking the thunderstorms Dorian is trying to develop and get stronger.

All this leaves a lot of questions about how bad this will get. Meanwhile, other parts of the Atlantic are bubbling with activity, which I'll get to in a moment.

Dorian is expected to move by close to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic Wednesday and Thursday. Of course, this isn't terrific news for Puerto Rico in particular, as it continues to struggle with the aftermath of 2017's mega hurricane Maria.

Obviously, Dorian won't be nearly as bad as Maria as it passes by Puerto Rico, but it's still not going to help.

Forecasters have gotten better at predicted the paths of tropical storms and hurricanes, but forecasting their strength still prompts experts to pull their hair out.

Interaction with land usually weakens tropical storms and hurricanes. It's possible this could be like Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, which was similar in size and location to Dorian.  The land interaction around the Dominican Republic destroyed Erika.

Erika did cause death and destruction, especially in Dominica from flooding. Erika scared the bejeezus out of Florida because it seemed headed for that state. But the land interaction and dry air aloft blew Erika apart before it reached Florida.

Dorian's forecast track takes it to Florida by around Sunday, at least that's what current predictions show. With land interaction in Caribbean Islands and dry air aloft choking the system down, will Dorian make it as far as Florida? If it does, which is iffy, how strong will it be? The National Hurricane Center is on it, but it's a tough forecast.

Stay tuned. Sam bat channel.

The other day, we talked about a disturbance near Florida that was threatening to become a tropical storm. Since then, it has to a spot well off the South Carolina coast and has become a poorly organized tropical depression.

Still, it is expected to become Tropical Storm Erin later today.  High winds aloft will keep wannabe Erin from developing much. Current forecasts have it moving northeastward far off the U.S East Coast as a relatively weak tropical storm. It's remains will probably hit Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday.

We Might Never Know Puerto Rico Maria Death Toll, But U.S. Surely Dropped Ball On Response

Harvard researchers say the death toll in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria
last year was many times more than the "official" count. I guess
Donald Trump throwing paper towels into a Puerto Rican
crowd was inadequate hurricane relief. 

People are rightly appalled by the figures provided by Harvard University researchers who put the death toll from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico last year at 4,645.

That's far above the "official" death toll of 64 attributed to the Category 4 hurricane on the island.

The Harvard researchers' findings is an estimate and could well be off. Still, it's horrifying.

It's based on a survey of 3,299 Puerto Rican households, which indicates 31 percent of respondents reported disruptions in medical services and 14 percent said they were unable to get their medications, according to the Associated Press. 

From there the researchers extrapolated the number of deaths caused by the lack of medical care post-Maria.

And that's the big takeaway from this research as far as I'm concerned. However many people died from the hurricane in Puerto Rico, the overwhelming majority of the casualities were not caused directly by storm surges, or flooding or high winds.

Most of the deaths were caused by a weak response to Maria. Yes, surely, some people would have died of medical complications in the immediate aftermath of such an extensive disaster. But the fact that the power was out for months in many areas, and that resources weren't applied adequately to the island is a national shame.

Remember, Puerto Rico is part of the United States. I remain convinced that because most Puerto Ricans aren't white, and most are Hispanic, the response wasn't as robust as it could have been, due to, yes, racism.

Let's face it, the response to Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Hurricane Irma in Florida last year was way more effective and timely than the Maria response in Puerto Rico. 

I do agree with Vox and other commentaries that the poor response to Maria was a mix of the Trump's administration's racism and its incompetence. As Vox says:

"Suspicion will, of course, linger for years that there's a connection between Trump's habit of weaponizing anti-Latino hysteria as the centerpiece of his politics and the unfolding of an essentially unprecedented human tragedy in a Spanish-speaking U.S. territory. 

The possibility that Trump and his team simply have no idea what they're doing should not, however, be dismissed out of hand. The fat of the matter is this is the only real crisis we've had occasion to see Trump try to wrestle with, and it's been a total fiasco - with a high human cost."

The Trump administration did not adequately gear up ahead of the storm when they knew it was coming. The relief effort was paltry and rife with incompetence or worse. Trump blamed Puerto Ricans for not recovering from Maria by themselves. He seemed to think throwing a few rolls of "beautiful soft" paper towels at people in Puerto Rico after Maria would make all the difference.

More people are researching to determine more precisely how many people died in Puerto Rico due to Maria and the U.S. government's paltry response.

George Washington University is also conducting an independent review to determine the number of Maria-related deaths in Puerto Rico. The results of that study were due out in May, says the AP, but the research team asked for and received more time to complete the study.

I hope more research does shed more light on this travesty, and if people in the Trump administration didn't do enough, let's hold them to account.

Lights Come On At Post-Maria Puerto Rico School, Glorious Pandemonium Results

The image is blurry but the joy is ot: A teacher rings a bell
in a Puerto Rican school that erupted into gleeful pandemonium
 this weekwhen electricity was finally restored, four months
after Hurricane Mariet

One of our biggest national shames is the response the United States has had to the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.

Large swaths of the island still have no electricity, about four months after the hurricane blasted Puerto Rico.

At last report, at least 17 percent of the island still had no power because of the storm. If the U.S. allowed a mainland state to go that long after a disaster without electricity, there'd be rioting in the streets.

There's plenty of blame to go around for the slow response in Puerto Rico.

In any event, a viral video that surfaced this week both enrages me and fills me with absolute joy. Enrages, because it shows the power coming back on after nearly four months. What the hell took so long?

Absolute joy, because this happened in a school. The teachers and students were in there, doing the best they could without electricity, and then what seemed impossible happened: The lights flickered back on.

The pandemonium in the school that resulted is a wonder to behold. Watch and enjoy:

At Least Trump Got Us Thinking About Post-Maria Puerto Rico Again

Somebody wrote "HELP" on the roof of this hurricane-
ravaged building in Puerto Rico

Say what you want about Donald Trump's mean tweets about Puerto Rico that he rattled off Thursday morning: He did get us thinking about Puerto Rico and its struggling recovery from Hurricane Maria.

Which is a good thing, since there's a humanitarian crisis continuing in Puerto Rico and we should be thinking about it.

In case you missed it, Trump said this:

"We cannot keep FEMA, the Military & First Responders, who have been amazing (under the most difficult circumstances) in P.R. forever."

Never mind that it's only been three weeks since Category 4 Hurricane Maria slammed Puerto Rico, that food is not getting to some people yet, that 40 percent of the population has no good access to clean drinking water, and 85 percent or so of the  island still does not have electricity.

Not to mention Puerto Ricans are American citizens and need the same kind of help we afford other people caught up in national disasters.

FEMA usually helps with disasters long term. As CNN notes, FEMA is still involved in recovery from Hurricane Katrina (2005) Hurricanes Ike and Gustav and Iowa floods (all 2008) Vermont and New York's own Hurricane Irene (2011) and many other disasters dating back two to ten years.

So why the rush to get out of Puerto Rico, Mr. President?

Many disasters that have afflicted the nation this year. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The ongoing California fires (death toll 31 and rising) and a Denver area hailstorm in May ($2.1 billion in damage)

But Hurricane Maria is surely the worst disaster of the year for us, especially in terms of the death toll.  Official counts put the number of deaths from Maria in Puerto Rico so far at 45. That's bad, but doesn't seem as awful as some huge calamaties.

Yet, I'm sure - and a lot of experts agree - that we'll learn the Puerto Rican death toll is much higher. And will continue to climb due to a faulty relief effort. One analysis by Vox estimated the death toll there at 450 so far.

Of course, it's tricky to get an accurate count of deaths caused by the aftermath of the storm. Are people dying for lack of good water and adequate food? Most healthy people can survive temporary food shortages, but people who were sick to begin with can't. How do we determine if they died from the disaster and its aftermath or from natural causes?

That's being picky. Because surely people are dying in Puerto Rico who wouldn't have had they gotten aid fast enough. One death is too many. We have to wonder how many are dying. Scary.

In any event, Vox says some members of Congress want an audit of Maria deaths in Puerto Rico to get a more accurate view of the cope of this crisis.

Aid, especially to the interior of Puerto Rico is shockingly inadequate.

The New York Times said dialysis patients have had their treatments cut back for lack of electricity, putting these people in mortal danger. People are also getting sick and even dying of water-borne diseases.

The hospital ship U.S.S. Comfort is docked in San Juan harbor, but few people have been airlifted there. As of Wednesday, only seve people were being treated on the ship, which  has a capacity for 250 patients.

On top of all this, it seems plenty of food and water is making it to Puerto Rico at the moment, but not all of it is being distributed to the people who most need it.

Blocked, wrecked roads, poor communication, no electricity and a host of other factors are keeping relief from people, especially in remote areas.

Let's keep the pressure on the administration to stay with Puerto Rico as long as it takes to get the territory completely back on its feet. We can't rely on Trump to accidentally and temporarily put our focus there. We have to do it ourselves, in a sustained way.

Puerto Rico, Aid, Trump, Heat And Politics #&*%ing Me Off

Desperate message written on a Puerto
Rican intersection after Maria.
The words under the SOS read
"We need water and food."

This is going to be a political kinda weather post, because I'm pissed off today.

Pissed off, because we've just spent three days yelling and screaming about whether NFL players should kneel during the National Anthem, all because Donald Trump forced the issue with his whines.

What those NFL players are protesting is racial injustice. No question, that's very important.

But we have a weather-related crisis going on now. In the United States. Involving Americans who are in very deep shit and so, so need our help.

As we know, Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico last week. Some humanitarian aid is flowing in, but the response has been anemic and totally in adequate. Remember, Puerto Rico is part of the United States.

There's no power. No water. More people are going to die in Puerto Rico from the lack of an emergency response than the storm itself. Trump and the rest of the government should be throwing everything they can at Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Instead, Trump complains about kneeling NFL players.

When he finally deigns to bring up Puerto Rico, it's to complain about its bad infrastructure. It's financial mismanagement over the past decade or two.

Forget that, dammit! There are people dying. We should have the island of Puerto Rico ringed with Navy ships, all tossing out food, generators, water, electrical repair crews and everything else.

I hope this isn't because the people of Puerto Rico are too Hispanic-ish for some people's taste.

San Juan Mayor Carmen Yuliz Cruz said this to CBS News:

"Its life or death......People are starting to die already. We need to get our shit together because people are dying. People are really dying. I've put them in ambulances when they're gasping for air."

I suppose that as of today, there are some early signs of Washington getting its shit together, prodded by activists, some Senators who have got Puerto Rico's back and an increasingly hostile press. It shouldn't take that to get aid to the island.

I know, I know, we're already dealing with Harvey in Texas and Irma in Florida, so it's hard to deal with a third major blow. And relief efforts never go without a hitch. But come on, let's get real with Puerto Rico, OK?

Another thing: I'm writing this in late September in far northern Vermont. I can see Canada from my house. Literally.

And the temperature is heading toward 90 for the third day in a row. The temperatures are shattering long-held records. It's oppressively humid. I'm sweating like hell.

This at a time of year that I should be wrapped in fleece and wondering what to do with my frost-bitten tomato plants. This heat wave is unprecedented for Vermont. Much like the 70 degree weather we had in February. And the 70 degree weather we had on Christmas Eve, 2015.

Yes, I get it. The weather always goes off the rails occasionally. And, in terms of Harvey, Irma, and Maria, there have always been big hurricanes and global warming did not "cause" the three huge hurricanes.

But let's get real. I always say it's hard to tease out exactly if and how global warming affected individual weather events, and that's still true.

However, the hurricanes, and the Vermont heat wave, and other strange weather events in recent years have the fingerprints of global warming all over them. The unusually hot ocean water made the hurricanes stronger than they otherwise would have been.

The downpours of Harvey in Texas probably would have been just a bit less intense had there not been more heat in the atmosphere, which can hold more water, which can unleash heavier downpours.

Vermont has always had warm spells in the autumn. But not like this. Perhaps in past decades, it would have been hot today in the Green Mountain State, but not like this.

Yet, we have a U.S. government led by Trump and other people that say global warming is totally imaginary - a conspiracy cooked up by China to ruin our economy, liberals who want to take freedom away from the rest of us, and scientists who want to fleece the government.

If you believe those conspiracies, I've got a hurricane-ravaged island in the Caribbean I can sell you.

The science is settled on this. The politics is not. With the fossil fuel industry and their minions funneling money to the climate deniers in Washington, we're getting no action on this. Just like Puerto Rico is not getting any action in the wake of Hurricane Maria.

I've always been taught that America is a can-do nation. We work incredibly hard. We're amazing innovators. When there's a crisis, we solve it. (My late World War II veteran father was part of the Greatest Generation, and I could see this greatness in him.)

I believe all this remains true about America. We are smart and hard working enough to lead the world out of the threat of global warming through inventiveness, guile, hard work and our culture of freedom and entrepreneurship.

Donald Trump keeps telling us he's going to make America great again. But he and his minions are doing the opposite through inaction in crises from Maria to climate change. I just wish he'd get out of the way and let the rest of us Americans get the jobs that need to get done get done.

Donald Trump wants to divide us for his own personal gain. Millions of Americans want to unite us to make an already great America even better.

Puerto Rico and the rest of the world who are already feeling the effects of climate change are asking: Which will it be?

Quick Thursday Update: Maria, Jose, Heat, Storms, Snow. Kitchen Sink, Too?

These palm trees in Puerto Rico were reduced to
sticks by Hurricane Maria

Hurricane Maria was sideswiping the Dominican Republic this morning, hitting it pretty hard with dangerous winds, flooding rains and storm surges.  

Hey, it trashed a bunch of islands already, I guess the hurricane figures it will keep destroying things.

As expected, Puerto Rico is hurting bad. The entire island has no electricity, and it could take up to six months to get it back. Which sounds daunting, depressing and quite possibly deadly.

Imagine trying to run hospitals, emergency services, entire societies with electricity in the 21st century. Oh sure, there will be generators, and electricity will slowly come back on line, but still. It's almost like going back to the stone age.

Especially since so many houses, businesses and other buildings are destroyed. Here's a glimpse of how horrible it was, as related by one witness, as relayed by the Weather Channel and the Miami Herald:

"'What I'm seeing is incredible,' retiree Rosita Galguerra, 66, who was riding out the storm with her husband in the Rio Piedras neighborhood of San Juan, told the Miami Herald. 'The house is trembling - and my house is made of concrete with a concrete roof. The winds are like out of a horror movie and its gusts, gusts, gusts. The island is going to be completely destroyed.'"

I suppose the only bit of good news right now is that most computer forecasting models are still insisting that Maria will stay offshore of the East Coast of the United States. Maria will still produce high tides, dangerous rip currents and such for the next several days, but that's certainly better than a direct hit.

Meanwhile, weird Tropical Storm Jose is still sitting and spinning and slowly winding down southeast of New England. It's track has had a seemingly endless history of stalls, loops and weird turns. That's continuing. Forecasters expect Jose will basically sit in the same spot out there at least through Sunday.

This is just making the weather miserable on Cape Cod and the Islands. The wind has been gusting past 40 mph continuously since just after noon Wednesday on Martha's Vineyard.

Elsewhere, we're still expecting record heat in northern New England - including Vermont, and southeastern Canada this weekend. Here in Vermont, weekend daytime highs are expected to reach the upper 80s, compared to the normal temperatures in the mid to upper 60s this time of year. Burlington has already had six consecutive days with highs in the 80s.

Further west, a stripe in the middle of the country can expect some flooding rains over the weekend due to a stalled weather front. It's hard to pinpoint exactly where the flooding might happen, but some areas could get a half foot of rain in the northern Plains.

And it's still snowing in the Rockies.

It's going to be one of those weekends when the weather is totally off the rails.

This video from CBS Miami is as good as any to show you the totality of the destruction from Maria in Puerto Rico and other islands:

Hurricane Maria Hit Puerto Rico This Morning. It Looks Really Bad

Damage from Hurricane Maria in Martinique, which
wasn't even hit as hard by the hurricane as places
like Dominica, which people really can't get to yet. 

Powerful Hurricane Maria, as expected, plowed into the southeastern corner of Puerto Rico early this morning, and is spending the morning on a terrible northwestward path across the island.

Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 155 mph. Terrifying. True, that's a little less than the 175 mph earlier last night, but the difference is really minimal.

Maria also ran directly over the tiny island of St. Croix, and I'm sure there's terrible devastation there, too.

As you can imagine, I don't yet have many fresh reports coming out of St. Croix and Puerto Rico, as of early this morning as the region was still being crushed by Maria. I am concerned by media reports that not many Puerto Ricans went to emergency shelters in sturdy buildings, choosing to ride out the storm in flimsier structures. That can get deadly.

One big danger in such intense hurricane winds is that debris is flung around violently, and this debris becomes deadly missiles. Not only is there new debris flying around in the terrible winds of Maria, but there was still a lot of fallen trees, branches and detritus from Hurricane Irma a couple weeks ago that is also being blown around.

At this point, it looks like that after Puerto Rico, Maria will become somewhat less danger, but still a big menace. Of course by then, the damage will have been done.

Hurricane Maria is forecast to sideswipe the Dominican Republic and then head northwestward to the east of the Bahamas.  So far, it looks like Maria will stay east, in the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the United States, but there's still no guarantees.

We actually have ex-hurricane Jose to thank for likely causing Maria to probably miss the United States. A strong ridge of high pressure, which is part of a strange weather pattern I'll get to in a minute, is parked over the Northeast and southeastern Canada.

Had it been able to assert itself further east, the high pressure system would have steered Maria toward the East Coast.

However,  Jose caused an area of weakness in the high pressure ridge, and prevented it from spreading out into the ocean waters east of Canada's Maritime provinces. Instead of being blocked by the high and moving westward, Hurricane Maria will be drawn into that "weakness" that is off the U.S. East Coast.

Satellite view of terrifying Hurricane Maria making
landfall in Puerto Rico this morning. 

Still, we have some more tropical strangeness to get through out in the Atlantic. Jose is slowly spinning down, but will stall for days southeast of New England.

Jose caused coastal flooding, and a lot of beach erosion across the Northeast Tuesday, and that will continue, at least for some extent, for the next few days.

There's even the chance of something called the Fujiwhara effect, when two tropical cyclones get too close to each other and start rotating counterclockwise around each other. The Weather Channel says to think of it like the Tilt-a-Whirl at the fair, except we're talking tropical cyclones, not teacup rides at the county fair.

The Fujiwhara effect in this case, if it develops, could fling a weakened Jose westward into New Jersey while slingshotting Maria northeastward out to sea. This is by no means guaranteed, but it is one scenario which could play out. We'll see.

The high pressure system I told you about that is, or is not influencing Hurricane Maria is part of a rather extreme and stuck weather pattern developing across the nation. When things don't move along as they normally do, the weather gets weird, and that's starting now.

The high pressure ridge will likely cause near record high temperatures in southeastern Canada, part of the eastern Great Lakes and northern New England, including here in Vermont over the weekend.

We've already had this type of weather over the past week as the weather patterns have been stuck for awhile now.

Meanwhile, out in the the northern Plains, severe weather is an issue. There were reports of at least four tornadoes in South Dakota yesterday, and there is a chance of severe weather, including the possibility of tornadoes all week, with the biggest chance of dangerous storms Friday in western Minnesota and eastern South Dakota.

What luck! I'm flying into South Dakota Friday.

The slow moving storms out in the Plains could cause flooding problems over the weekend, too.

Meanwhile, the stuck weather pattern will keep the snow piling up in the mountains of Montana, northwestern Wyoming and Alberta, Canada., among other places in the northern Rockies. A few of the highest elevations could get a foot and a half of snow.

Yikes! An early winter.

Category 5 Hurricane Maria Devastates Dominica, Other Islands Targeted

Hurricane Irma bearing down on the Leeward Islands
on Monday. It quickly blew up to a Category 5 storm
with sustained winds of 160 mph. 

Another gorgeous Caribbean Island has just been swallowed up and destroyed by a huge hurricane during this devastating late summer.

It was a worst case scenario for the island nation of Dominica as Category 5 Hurricane Maria hit. 

First of all, they didn't have much time to prepare.  Places like Barbuda and the Virgin Islands at least had about three days to prepare for Hurricane Irma earlier this month.

Hurricane Maria blew up from a tropical storm to a Category 5 monster with 160 mph sustained winds in just 27 hours, all the while bearing down on Dominica, population about 72,000.

Everybody on Dominica was in grave danger. The Prime Minister of Dominca, Roosevelt Skerritt  tweeted during the storm: "My roof is gone. I am at the complete mercy of the hurricane. House is flooding."

He was later rescued, but as the winds began to die down he sent out a heartbreaking message:

Skerritt said in part:

"So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace....My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains...."

Skerritt said every roof of every house he knows of on the island was blown off. "I am honestly not preoccupied with physical damage at this time, because it is devastating... indeed, mind boggling."

Dominica is just the start of Maria's wrath, most unfortunately. The mountains of Dominic barely dented Maria's strength - it knocked the storm back down ever so slightly to a high end Category 4 hurricane.

But now, Hurricane Maria right back up to a Category 5 monster with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

Maria will remain a Category 4 or 5 storm as it plows through the Virgin Islands and then Puerto Rico in the next couple of days.

Puerto Rico is a real nightmare. It has severe infrastructure and economic problems, and the electrical network still isn't really fully up and running after Puerto Rico was sideswiped by Hurricane Irma a couple weeks ago.

There's a lot of concern about Puerto Ricans living in flimsy wooden or tin houses. "You have to evacuate. Otherwise you're going to die. I don't know how to make this any clearer," said Hector Pesquera, the island's public safety commissioner.

As for the mainland United States and Maria, there's still no guarantees. Unlike during Irma, it looks increasingly like Maria will curve north well before reaching Florida, so the Sunshine State will likely be spared, aside from some coastal flooding and battering waves along the state's east coast.

It is possible that dying Hurricane Jose, which will cause tropical storm conditions along the New England coast, will influence Maria in a good way.

Again, no guarantees, but there are suggestions among at least some of the computer forecasting models that Jose, lingering southeast of New England, could help pull Hurricane Maria northeastward, keeping it away from the United States east coast.

Again, it's important to stress that there's still a chance Maria could have impacts in the United States, so we'll have to keep an eye on this one, just in case.

By the way, up here in Vermont, we're going to stay on our extended period of dry, unseasonably warm weather for the next several days. There were a few pop up showers Monday, but not many, and a little rain from Jose will probably creep into southeastern Vermont Wednesday.

Up in Burlington, we tied the record high of 87 for the date on Monday. It was the fourth consecutive day in the 80s. Today might be the fifth.

Hurricanes Jose And Maria Just Keep On Menacing

Visible satellite view of growing Hurricane Maria taken
just after sunrise as the storm bears down on the
Leeward Islands. 

This very busy hurricane season continues to keep pace today, as we now have more specific forecasts of how Hurricane Jose will affect New England. And Hurricane Maria is a terrible threat to a number of Caribbean islands.

Let's take the two big storms one at a time:

HURRICANE JOSE

Coastal New England is now getting ready for Hurricane Jose, which won't hit the region directly, but  will be big enough to make for a very nasty midweek.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect from the Delaware Coast to southeastern Massachusetts. Some computer models bring gusts over 60 mph to some coastal locations as Jose makes its closest pass late Tuesday and Wednesday.

There will almost surely be some trees and wires down in the areas covered by the tropical storm watch.

It's going to rain like hell on the Cape and Islands, too, with maybe three to as much as eight inches of rain expected on outer Long Island, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and the Cape.

Forecasters are watching this closely. Right now it looks like the heaviest rain won't get that far inland, minimizing the chances of widespread flooding. However, if the downpours go just a little further west than expected, places like Boston and New York could see some pretty unpleasant urban flooding.

It looks like coastal flooding, battering waves and rip currents will affect beaches in New England all week, too.

On the bright side, Jose is weakening as it approaches New England, as it's being worn down by strong upper level winds and colder ocean temperatures. (Hurricanes need warm ocean water to survive and grow, if the water gets a little too cool, hurricanes tend to weaken.)

Jose will stay offshore, it looks like, but either it, or its remnants will linger southeast of New England all week into next weekend. There's even a chance it could head south again, find some warm water and begin to rebuild itself. We'll see about that.

Up here in Vermont, the effects from Jose will be minimal. There probably will be some showers from Jose in the southeastern half of the state Wednesday.

DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA

Hurricane Maria was rapidly intensifying this morning as it approached the central Leeward Islands. Its top sustained winds were 90 mph early this morning, but Maria is forecast to become a major hurricane - Category 3 or 4 with winds of 125 mph or more.

Maria's track is roughly parallel to the one destructive Hurricane Irma took, but Maria's path is just a little south of Irma's.

The northern Leeward Islands, and the Virgin Islands, completely trashed by Irma, are now going to get raked by Maria. It's just awful, to say the least.

Even worse, with the track further south, the central Leeward Islands, which didn't fare terribly with Irma, will get a horrible blow.

Also, Irma skirted Puerto Rico just to its north, causing massive power failures and some damage on that island, but it didn't devastate the U.S. territory.

At this point, it looks like Hurricane Maria will probably go right over Puerto Rico Wednesday or early Thursday while it is at top strength, so this is a real scary moment for them.

After Maria is done with Puerto Rico, it will head toward the northwest, kind of on a path toward the U.S. East Coast. But for the mainland, it's not time to panic yet, for sure. While it's possible Maria could hit, the massive hurricane could turn out to sea as well.

Nobody knows for sure, so we'll just have to keep watching.

Irma Devastation. Also, Jose, Katia, Even Northeast Floods

Major damage to a hotel on St. Martin, caused by
Hurricane Irma.

I'll kind of do the same format as yesterday, as the weather picture remains extremely busy, and in some cases devastating.

I'll start with the obvious - Irma - and then move on to all sorts of other weather news - some of which is affecting us here in New England.

IRMA MOWING ISLANDS

Hurricane Irma plowed into the tiny island of Barbuda overnight, still as a Category 5 storm with winds of 185 mph, gusting to 225 mph.

A weather station on Barbuda reported sustained winds of 108 mph gusting to 155, before wind reports abruptly went calm. I don't know if that was the eye of Irma hitting or just the wind measuring equipment failing under the extreme strain of the storm.

A storm surge of over eight feet smashed the south side of Barbuda. I don't have details yet on how people are doing out there.

Barbuda and the neighboring hard-hit island of Antigua have a population of about 100,000, though it's unclear how many people left the islands before Irma hit.

This is just the beginning, of course. Next up today is St. Martin, which got slammed this morning. Early reports from St. Martin indicate severe damage, even to sturdy buildings. The Virgin Islands are getting it, too.

Irma is a terrible threat to Puerto Rico as well. It'll pass over or just to the north of Puerto Rico tonight, with a lot of damage expected there. Already, as of 10 a.m. Eastern Time, outer rainbands from Irma have already toppled trees and cut power in parts of eastern Puerto Rico. It's going to keep getting worse as the day drags on.

The Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as the southeastern Bahamas, could see extreme storm surges of 15 to 20 feet, which would take out huge swaths of coastal communities. I hope they have great evacuation plans there.

Eventually, Irma gets close to Florida, so we have to talk about that in some detail.

Since Irma won't be around Florida until Sunday or so, the future path is uncertain. It could hit any part of the Florida peninsula, and the center of Irma could miss it entirely. Still, Florida is certain to have some effects from Irma, we just don't know to what extent yet.

The forecast future path of Irma as it heads toward the United States later this week reminds me of Hurricane Matthew last year.

Last year, Matthew headed westbound across the central Caribbean, then took a sharp turn north, where it devastated Haiti, then moved northward just off the east coast of Florida, still as a major hurricane, then coming ashore in South Carolina, then offshore again while unleashing a devastating flood in North Carolina.

Major damage and flooding on St. Martin with
Hurricane Irma this mornig. 

Irma is starting from a position further north than Matthew, but is still forecast to abruptly change its basically westward path just above the coast of Cuba and veer sharply north toward Florida over the weekend.

Here's the problem: We still don't know exactly when Irma will turn north. It's a few days away so the so-called cone of uncertainty is wide.

Irma could go up the west coast of Florida, or smack directly into the southern tip of Florida, possibly still as a Category 4 hurricane, or move north just off the east coast of Florida just like Matthew did. Some of the computer models have been trying to push Irma in that more easterly path. We'll just have to wait and see.

Of course, if Irma does this more easterly trick, that would put the Carolinas at a higher risk of getting blasted.

By the way, you'll hear media reports of Irma "weakening" and perhaps talking about a sigh of relief from Florida.

Don't buy it. It's true Irma will likely no longer be a Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds by the time it gets near Florida Sunday or early Monday.  Disruptions in Irma's circulation from nearby islands, and some upper level winds will probably cut back on Irma's strength a little.  But I'm guessing ot that much.

Irma will still be a formidable hurricane near or over Florida.

The state is already kind of a mess and Irma isn't anywhere near Florida yet. Tourists and non-residents have already been order off of the Florida Keys. Miami Beach plans to announce mandatory evacuations later today or tomorrow, says the Miami Herald.

Store shelves across Florida are bereft of supplies like bottled water, plywood and other things people need for storm preparation.

Price gouging is a problem, too.

Bottled water on Amazon is selling for an inflated price, which has brought accusations of price gouging.  According to CBS news, Amazon uses "dynamic pricing," in which as demand for an item increases, so does the price, guided by Amazon's algorithms.

In this case, Amazon, shut your goddamn algorithms off, you selfish bastards.

The Florida Attorney General's office has opened a price gouging hotline to report such activity.

Anyway, I could go on and on with the developing story of Irma, but I'll just keep posting updates as needed.

Let's move on to other weather news that you should hear about today:

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE:

Tropical Storm Jose continued to strengthen toward hurricane status well east of Irma. Jose will probably travel on a more northwesterly course than Irma, but still could clip the northern Leeward Islands, already devastated by Irma.

Tropical Storm Katia has formed in the Bay of Campeche, east of Mexico. It's going to meander around for a few days then head southwestward into the central Mexican coast, forecasters believe. It could strengthen to a hurricane before landfall.

Texas still looks safe from Katia, so that piece of news is good. They don't need another Harvey.

NORTHEAST FLOODS:

It's another rainy day in the Northeast, and the flood threat is increasing in parts of the region. Flash flood watches are up in parts of Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine as a stalled front over that region is unleashing heavy rains there.

Two to four inches of rain could fall there by Thursday morning, on top of the locally heavy rain they had yesterday and last night.

Here in Vermont, we're west of the front so the rain isn't so heavy. No major flooding is expected in the Green Mountain State, but as you can tell it's another rainy, gloomy day here.

On Tuesday, some parts of Vermont and the rest of New England had some damage from severe thunderstorms. Most of it was in the form of trees and power lines down. One especially strong storm snapped off nine pine trees in Pittsfield, Vermont.

We'll provide updates as we go along, so stay tuned.

Here's a video showing the destruction in St. Martin:

Category 5 Hurricane Irma Could Be Another Worst Case Scenario

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Irma heading westbound
toward the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday.

Boy, it's busy today.  We have Hurricane Irma, other tropical trouble, severe storms in the East and fires out west. I'll obviously start with Irma, and I'll get to the other issues lower down in this post after I get done with the very dangerous news on Hurricane Irma.

Irma this morning is a Category 5 beast, the worst you can get, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, gusting to 215 mph. It's the strongest hurricane on record that's occured in the Atlantic Ocean outside of the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

Worse, the National Hurricane Center says Irma will remain a Category 4 or 5 storm all the way to somewhere near Florida by the weekend.

The further out in time you get with the forecasts for Irma, the more uncertainties arise in its exact track, and that's normal for all hurricanes.

We do know that by tonight or tomorrow, the northern Leeward Islands are going to be crushed by perhaps the worst hurricane in their history, as Irma will still probably be a Category 5 storm then.

Next in line are the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, where hurricane warnings are up tomorrow, when Irma is expected to hit those islands very, very hard.

Also preparing for a possible disaster from Irma is Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas and Cuba. There, people are stocking up on emergency supplies now, and beginning to evacuate vulnerable seaside locations. Since Irma is a few days away from these locations, its unclear exactly which sections of these nations will get hit.

Then we get to Florida. It's still possible Irma could veer away from the Sunshine State, but it's looking more and more likely Florida will be affected by Irma, and could well take a direct hit from the storm while it's a Category 4 storm.

Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 130 mph, and category 5 hurricanes have winds of 157 mph or greater.

I'll caution again that hurricane forecasts for what will happen four or more days out are often very inaccurate, so there's no guarantee at all that Florida is screwed.

However, you saw the destruction to towns in the path of Hurricane Harvey in Texas that were hit when Harvey was a Category 4. This is before the epic floods started. The damage in places like Rockport, Texas looked like that of a major tornado, except covering a much larger area than a tornado would.

Harvey's Category 4 winds struck an area that had a relatively sparse population. Now imagine if the same thing hit a major Florida city like Miami. Besides the winds, the storm surge would devastate Miami, since its elevation is so low.

I don't know whether Irma will hit Miami, or some other place in Florida or miss the state altogether, but you can understand why they're very nervous there.

No evacuations order have yet been issued for any part of Florida, because it's too soon to figure out who to evacuate.  Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for all of Florida, so that emergency managers have the resources to start gearing up now if not sooner.

Still, some people in Florida have already had enough and are leaving the coast, or even the entire state before the mad rush begins.

Some of my Vermont readers are probably beginning to wonder if Irma will have any effect up here, and the answer is nobody has any clue. I suppose it's possible it could come north with heavy rain and gusty winds eventually, but that's just pure speculation.

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE

Another strong disturbance is hot on the heels of Irma in the eastern Atlantic has become Tropical Storm Jose, and it's likely to become a pretty powerful hurricane in its own right.

While nobody knows for certain, it appears Jose might head toward the northwest and miss North America, which would be a good thing. However, there's a chance it could hit the northern Leeward Islands, which I've noted are going to get blasted by Irma.

Sigh.

There's also a disturbance developing in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. That's where Harvey came from so I'm sure people in Texas are not liking this. However, if this disturbance develops into a tropical storm, it will probably meander around for awhile, and the maybe head west into Mexico, and miss Texas by a wide margin.

At least we hope so.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY NORTHEAST

Severe thunderstorm are definitely a risk today in much of the Northeast, including here in Vermont.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms in central New England, including the southeastern half of Vermont today. The slight risk extends southwestward into eastern New York and into eastern Pennsylania and New Jersey.

Severe thunderstorms are possible today in the
yellow shaded area. Areas in dark green have
a very slight chance of severe storms. 

Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats in the slight risk area, but we can't rule out a brief tornado in that region, either.

Some thunderstorms will produce torrential rains, so there's a risk of local flash floods or street flooding in a few locations.

It's a little late in the season for severe weather in New England, but it does happen in September and October from time to time.

One of New England's worst tornadoes struck Windsor Locks, Connecticut in October, 1979 for example. That one killed three people and injured dozens.

The cold front causing today's potential severe weather will slow down to a crawl over eastern New England over the next couple of days. Heavy rain will fall there, especially in Maine, where there could be a few flooding problems by Thursday.

WESTERN FIRES

We've had a lot of hazy, smoky skies over Vermont for much of the past month as major wildfires continue to blossom and grow across Canada and the western United States.

The fires got worse out west in the past few days as a heat wave accompanied by very dry air and gusty winds blew fires up into big conflagrations. We'll continue to see smoky or hazy skies for awhile. Thick haze has also enveloped the Upper Midwest from these fires.

Forest fire in the Columbia River Gorge. Photo by
Hal Bernton/Seattle Times.

But that's no big deal. The actual fires are a big deal and are causing big time havoc. About 140 hikers had to be rescued from the Columbia River Gorge Trail in Oregon when a wildfire approached them.

Firefighters are trying to protect a 2,700-year-old grove of giant sequoias near Yosemite National Park.

The largest wildfire in Los Angeles history burned around Burbank this past weekend.

An odd batch of gusty, rainy thunderstorms helped tamp the fires down, but one of the storms caused a destructive microburst in Santa Barbara.

There were so many fires burning in Washington State that ash fell like snow in Seattle, says the Seattle Times.

In Canada, fires forced evacuations in British Columbia and Saskatchewan.

Phew, busy times in the weather department lately, huh? And it looks like it will continue. Let's all hope we don't have any more mega disasters out of this spate of wild weather.