Hanna And Her Siblings

As expected, Tropical Storm Hanna formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is going to cause some mischief along the southern coast of Texas.

Hanna looked pretty healthy on satellite images this morning. As of 4 a.m., the storm only had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, but I'm sure they'll find that it will have strengthened by later this morning.

Luckily, Hanna likely won't have time to strengthen all that much as it heads west towards Texas.  As of early this morning, it was only about 280 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas and will make landfall by early Saturday afternoon.

Still, a well-organized system like Hanna sitting over very toasty Gulf of Mexico waters can strengthen fast. There's a chance that Hanna could become a hurricane even though it's already fairly close to land. Only after landfall is it guaranteed to weaken.

Pretty much all tropical storms and hurricanes weaken upon landfall.

It looks like Hanna might dump upwards of a half foot of rain in some sections of southern Texas, certainly enough to raise a flood risk.  It will have gotten stronger by the time it reaches Texas. It probably won't be all the way up to hurricane strength, but it might get close.

Meanwhile, Hanna's unreliable little brother Tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to churn east of the Lesser Antilles. That storm is a wild card, because it's small and unpredictable.   Smaller storms can strengthen or fall apart on a dime, and that's the kind of thing we're seeing with Gonzalo.

A little dry air intruded on Gonzalo yesterday, disrupting its circulation.  It still might get stronger as it moves into the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.  It's then expected to get weaker again once it's into the eastern Caribbean.

But little Gonzalo probably isn't done with surprises yet, so  the National Hurricane Center will certainly keep a close eye on the little devil.

Meanwhile, out in the Pacific, Hanna's big brother Hurricane Douglas continues to spin toward Hawaii. Douglas was a Category 4 monster early this morning with top sustained wind of 130 mph. Luckily, Douglas isn't near any land at the moment, so it's not wrecking anything.

However, Douglas is still headed toward Hawaii.  Cooler water in its path and strong winds aloft will surely weaken Douglas. It will still be a borderline hurricane/tropical storm with winds of 75 mph as it gets near the Big Island of Hawaii over the weekend, according to current forecasts.

Back in the Atlantic Ocean, a strong weather disturbance is coming off the west coast of Africa and will start to head west far out there.  This one could also eventually turn into a tropical storm or hurricane, so stay tuned!

Rinse And Repeat: Storms Again, Mostly South, More Tropical Trouble

A little humid air and a little light rain help add a bit of color
to my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

It seems like the Burlington-area anti rain force field broke down a little bit this morning, as I've noticed a fairly nice downpour passed through the Queen Cith this morning.

Up here in St. Albans, it did rain a little, so I'll take it.

Meanwhile, the tropics are bubbling with activity.  I'll get into that in a bit, but before that, let's get into the local stuff first.

VERMONT RAIN PROSPECTS/WARMTH

It would be nice if it rained more, but I think northern Vermont is mostly done with the rain today, save for a scattering of showers and storms - the  hit and miss kind - this afternoon.

Like yesterday the real action in the thunderstorm department will be south. Though this time, more of Vermont looks to be involved.

Central and southern New England, including southern and eastern Vermont and southern New Hampshire, are in the NOAA' Storm Prediction Center's slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms today.

That's the second of five alert levels and means there is the possibility of scattered severe storms, but nothing widespread.

The rest of Vermont, and most of  the rest of northern New England is in a marginal risk zone, which means there might be an isolated severe storm here and there.

Basically, the clouds and rain in northern Vermont and New York stabilized the atmosphere, making it harder, but not impossible, for afternoon showers and storms to develop.  Central and southern Vermont didn't get into this morning's rain. There will be a little more sun there this morning, which could help encourage afternoon storms

After today's storms go by, there's no precipitation in the offing until at least later Sunday. We have another toasty weekend ahead, with daytime highs in the 80s, with maybe a spot 90 here and there.

The following is still a bit uncertain, but we have a shot - just a chance - early next week of having the coolest spell of weather since mid-June.  If this comes to pass, it won't be chilly by any means, but there might be a few days in there that don't even make it to 80 degrees in the afternoon, and Champlain Valley nighttime temperatures could go below 60 degrees.

In other words, we have a round of average summer weather coming up for a change.

This coolish spell is likely to end prospects for Burlington to have its longest stretch of consecutive days that stayed above 60 degrees, but we will probably have the second longest such stretch.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, the longest stretch of continous above 60 days was 37 in 1898.  The second longest stretch was 30 days in 1988.

As of yesterday, we're up to 27 days, and it most likely won't go below 60 through Sunday

TROPICS: GONZALO, WANNABE HANNA AND DOUGLAS

Tropical Storm Gonzalo, as expected, got going way out in the Atlantic yesterday, but its future is highly questionable.

As of now, the National Hurricane Center expects to become a hurricane for awhile, then maybe weaken as it enters the Caribbean Sea.

However, as noted yesterday, Gonzalo is a tiny little thing. It doesn't take much to disrupt a small storm.

Several meteorologists noticed this morning that an intrusion of dry air had disrupted Gonzalo's circulation early this morning.  That might hinder any intensification. We shall see.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico I dismissed yesterday as a nothingburger now seems poised to become a tropical storm. If it does do that, they'll name it Hanna.

If Hanna forms as expected, it will be the earliest eight storm of the season on record.  The old record for earliest "H" storm was on August 3, 2005.

Meanwhile, we have a sleeper in the form of Hurricane Douglas. I call it a sleeper because it hasn't been really getting a lot of attention.

But it should.

Douglas is way out in the Pacific Ocean heading west away from distant Mexico.  Top winds this morning were 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The problem is, it's heading toward Hawaii.  Douglas will weaken over cooler waters as it approaches Hawaii, but it will still be a low end hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time it gets there.

Hawaii seems to have gotten more prone to tropical storms in recent years and decades.   Due to natural ocean currents, the water is coolish around Hawaii, which tends to kill hurricanes. Such storms thrive on hot water.

However, the oceans around Hawaii aren't as cold as they used to be, in large part due to climate change.  Which means if all other things being equal, hurricanes and tropical storms near Hawaii don't tend to weaken as fast ast they used to.

Back in the Atlantic, yes, it's been a very busy start to the hurricane season, but the power of the storms have been overwhelming.

But this hurricane/tropical storm season isn't nearly as dramatic and active as the first part of the notorious 2005 season (which eventually brought us such disasters as Katrina and Rita).

There's a measure of how active a hurricane season is something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE.  It's a measure of how intense a particular hurricane season is based on the intensity and longevity of each tropical storm or hurricane.

Though we have a record number of storms this year, they've all been rather weak and short lived. According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist and expert on Atlantic hurricanes.

The ACE number so far in the Atlantic Ocean is eight as of yesterday. Normal for this time of year is seven, so it's close.  In the notorious 2005 season, ACE was already up to 56.

Even if Gonzalo turns into a dud and Hanna turns out to be a weakling, the ACE count will probably increase to a little above average in the next few days.

Not Alabama: Reivigorated Dorian Targets Carolinas

Devastation in the Bahamas. Image via The Weather Channel

Seemingly indestructable Hurricane Dorian gathered some strength yesterday from the warm Gulf Stream waters east of Florida and is now slogging its way toward the Carolinas, where a lot of damage seems inevitable.  

Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center said Dorian was 75 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina with winds of 115 mph.  Charleston and surrounding areas were already getting gusty rainbands and flooding by dawn, and it will get worse.

Storm surges will range from four to eight feet in many areas, and water levels might rise well in advance of Dorian's strong winds. Many streets in Charleston were flooded by storm surges early this morning. Additionally, six to 12 inches of rain are in the forecast for coastal areas of the Carolinas.

Dorian was also spinning off several tornadoes this morning. There has already been several reports of confirmed tornadoes with damage in North and South Carolina.

Dorian is still expected to parallel the Carolina coast, and might come ashore at least briefly anywhere between South Carolina and North Carolina's Outer Banks.  It'll be close enough to cause hurricane force winds, especially east of Interstate 95.

Trump o Wednesday tried to defend his incorrect Sunday statement
that Dorian would hit Alabama, using an outdated National
Hurricane Center map altered with a Sharpie making it look
like it was headed toward Alabama.

This after all the extreme destruction in the Bahamas, where the death toll has risen to 20. Authorities expect to find more fatalities. Many injured people were airlifted to hospitals in Nassau in the Bahamas. (There is little hurricane damage in Nassau, as Dorian passed well north of that city.)

Meanwhile, we had our own unfortunate hurricane sideshow Wednesday in the White House.  President Trump falsely or mistakenly said on Sunday that Alabama would get hit by Hurricane Dorian.

After that little gaffe, he could have easily corrected himself and moved on. Anyone can make a mistake, and everybody would have forgotten about it.  

About 20 minutes after Trump said Sunday Alabama would be hit, the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama tweeted out assurances to the public that the state was fine, no need to panic. Trump could have then said, "Whoops! We have updated information, Alabama is OK after all."

But oh, no, not Donald! He actually wasted time Wednesday showing a doctored National Hurricane Center map that had been very outdated by the time he made his Alabama comments on Sunday.

Here's a National Hurricane Center map issued Sunday morning,
hours before Trump's Alabama gaffe. He could have consulted
this map, which (accurately) predicted Dorian would
avoid Alabama and parallel the Florida coast instead.

The map was from three days earlier, showing a projected path for Dorian into the heart of Florida. Worse, Trump or more likely somebody on his staff took a Sharpie and appended a further path on the map into southeastern Alabama. Trump needs his own reality,  you understand.

Of course, you'd think a president would have the latest information from the National Hurricane Center. By Sunday, the NHC forecast had Dorian moving northward, paralleling the Florida coast (which is exactly what actually happened.)  Why wasn't he using Sunday's NHC information on Sunday?

By the way, it is technically illegal to falsify a National Weather Service forecast or statement.

Trump later cited so called "spaghetti plots" which are maps that show what each computer model thinks would be the path of the storm. (The lines go in many directions, so all the lines on the map look like a bowl of spaghetti, hence the name.)

The spaghetti plots that Trump said indicated possible Dorian paths into Alabama were issued four days before his statement, so they were outdated. If Trump is that interested in spaghetti plots (doubtful) why didn't he check them Sunday morning, when all of them had Dorian missing Alabama?

Instead of laughably trying to defend himself with big efforts to defend his lies, maybe Trump should focus on a hurricane response in the Carolinas, and to see what the Bahamas need from us.

Dorian Mostly Misses Puerto Rico, But Florida Might Be Screwed

Healthy looking Hurricane Dorian, now well north of Puerto Rico
as seen here Thursday morning. 

Hurricane Dorian went through quite a strengthening phase on Wednesday, becoming a hurricane at least two days before most forecasters expected it to.

That it largely missed Puerto Rico is obviously good, since Dorian's peak winds had increased to 85 mph.  Not a lot of new destruction there.

But Dorian didn't interact with land, which means it stayed strong and has a great shot of getting stronger. Florida is still in its sights.

Dorian is still fighting off dry air trying to intrude. A bit of that dry air did get to the core of the storm overnight. But the National Hurricane Center warns that Dorian has a lot going for it. Relatively strong upper level winds, which can squelch hurricanes, are forecast to weaken.

Dorian is over very warm water and will remain over the toasty H2O for the rest of its journey.  That's a recipe for strengthening, and the NHC says rapid strengthening is possible over the next couple of days.

Strength forecasts for hurricanes are very tricky. Anything could happen. But the National Hurricane Center says Dorian could come ashore in Florida with winds of 125 mph - a major, destructive hurricane. Like we need another one, after Harvey, Florence, Irma and Michael over the past couple of years caused so many billions of dollars in damage in the United States.

High pressure to the north is still forecast to keep Hurricane Dorian heading to the northwest, then west toward Florida. The path is still iffy.  And nobody is sure where on the east coast of Florida Dorian might hit. Some models take it to near the Georgia/Florida border. Other models take it as far south as Miami. So the whole state is in play.

The timing now suggests that the worst of Dorian would hit Florida on Monday - Labor Day.

Predictably but wisely, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency, which funnels money and resourses to local governments and emergency managers to get ready for the storm, as The Weather Channel notes. 

People in Florida are spooked and getting ready for the storm. In Orlando, bottled water has already been cleared from shelves by shoppers preparing for Dorian. Lines for gasoline are really long.

However, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says retailers have ordered extra supplies to be available in the days leading up the the hurricane, and gas supplies are still good.

Some coastal flooding is likely well in advance of Dorian, especially around Miami.  Seasonal king tides, will cause some flooding, and the approaching hurricane might help to push a little extra water ashore.

Another thing to note. If Hurricane Dorian hits south Florida, it would eventually emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. That would create a risk Dorian could gather itself up again, organize and become a threat to the Gulf Coast. We'll see.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin fizzled off the United States East Coast. As expected, it contributed to some heavy rain in eastern New England, but there fortunately wasn't a lot of flooding.

Here in Vermont, Erin contributed a bit of moisture to a slow moving cold front, so we benefitted from some decent showers.

Barry's Legacy Will Probably Be Another Epic Flood

Severe flooding in Louisiana in 2016 caused by a stalled weather system.
What is to become Tropical Storm Barry will also be moving
quite slowly, so it could unleash similar serious flooding
UPDPhoto by Bill Feig/The Advocate

UPDATE 1 p.m. 

s expected, that storminess in the Gulf of Mexico was upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry late this morning.

The National Hurricane Center says it now has a better defined circulation and has sustained winds as high as 40 mph, so Barry now qualifies as a tropical storm.

The system is still a disorganized mess though, with upper level winds and intrusions of dry air messing Barry up.

Still,  Barry is still expected to intensify, and might, MAYBE achieve hurricane status before landfall over the weekend.

That doesn't matter all that much, though, as all the rain with Barry is the real problem. Flooding is going to happen somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Probably Louisiana.

That said, the exact track of the storm is super uncertain. It could hit land anywhere between Mississippi and the upper Texas coast. Whereve it hits, the heaviest rain will come over and just east of where it comes ashore.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The storm system that everybody's been watching in the Gulf of Mexico, the one destined to become Tropical Storm Barry, was still trying to get its act together this morning.

No matter what happens with this thing, though, it's almost guaranteed to bring somebody a terrible, epic flood. Once again, we'll have big time flooding in the news.

Wannabe Barry is still a wannabe because no real noticeable center of circulation had developed as of early this Thursday morning. Where that center forms will be key in where Barry goes. There's still questions on where precisely it will make landfall and at what strength it will do so.

Although everybody, including me, wants to know those particulars, in essence, it doesn't matter. The serious flooding from this is already almost locked in stone. It appears Louisiana or Texas and on up into probably Arkansas and Mississippi are at the greatest risk.

Yesterday, I mentioned how a storm surge from wannabe Barry pushing upstream along the already high Mississippi River could overtop levees. That's still a definite threat, but even if that doesn't happen, the flooding will be widespread and very dangerous.

One of the big reasons for that is wannabe Barry is in no hurry to get anywhere. Steering currents in the atmosphere are weak, so it won't move much. Which means the downpours will linger over a particular area for a long time, creating spectacular rainfall totals.

Current predicts are for at least a foot of rain in the areas especially targeted by Barry, and the latest best guesses are that would be Louisiana, possibly including the already flood-soaked New Orleans. Some areas could get up to 20 inches of rain.

This slow moving set of downpours sets up a potential disaster that has similarities to the stalled Hurricane Harvey in Texas back in 2017, or that no-name stalled August, 2016 storm that dumped up to 30 inches of rain on Louisiana, causing another epic flood.

Needless to say, flood watches are up along much of the northern Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and central Louisiana.  I suspect those flood watches will be extended westward toward Texas, especially if it looks like wannabe Barry goes further west, too.

It's interesting that there is a hurricane watch up for coastal Louisiana even though wannabe Barry isn't even a tropical depression yet. At least as of this writing.  It's certainly possible this storm could reach hurricane strength by early Saturday morning, especially if it stays off the coast over the warm Gulf waters long enough.

This would add some wind damage to the mix from wannabe Barry. And be dangerous for very low lying coastal areas. Low, swampy areas south and east of New Orleans were already being evacuated this morning because of the risk.

Regardless of whether this turns into a hurricane or not, the inland flooding will be the real impact.  This year has been another in a series with devastating floods in the United States. And it's about to get worse, unfortunately.

Here's some video clips of the flooding in New Orleans yesterday that was probably a prelude to the upcoming, bigger flooding disaster:

Will "Wannabe Barry" Turn Into Another New Orleans Hurricane Calamity?

Serious flash flooding in New Orleans this morning. Is this a
prelude to an even bigger calamity from wannabe Barry?

New Orleans was badly flooded today as a storm that wants to become Tropical Storm Barry gathers steam in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

This morning's flash flood emergency in New Orleans was created by intense thunderstorms on the outer edges of that mishmash of Gulf thunderstorms that might become Barry. Up to six inches of rain fell in just three hours this morning.

Many parts of New Orleans, including the French Quarter were under water this morning. If the worst case scenarios with wannabe Barry play out, this morning's destructive flooding will look like child's play. Things have the potential to get very difficult in the Big Easy.

You might remember my post a couple days ago that mentioned a cluster of thunderstorms that had its origins in Missouri and Tennessee was drifting down to the Gulf of Mexico and had the potential for grow into a tropical storm.

That potential seems like it is being realized. The National Hurricane Center says wannabe Barry will almost certainly grow into Tropical Storm Barry by Thursday and could easily increase further into a hurricane by the weekend.

The future path and strength of wannabe Barry is wicked uncertain, but early indications are it will move west over the northern Gulf of Mexico, then turn north and make landfall somewhere west of New Orleans.

If that happens, New Orleans would get the worst of the storm surge, which is water pushed ashore by a storm.

That's bad enough for low lying New Orleans. However, under normal circumstances, a storm surge being pushed northward up the Mississippi River by the city wouldn't be that big of a deal, as a levee system would protect the area.

Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico usually hit later in the year, when the Mississippi River is typically pretty low. The levee system around New Orleans protects the city unless the water gets more than 20 feet deep.

So if a storm surge increases the water level in the river from, say, five feet to 10 feet, the city and its levees can handle it.

Here's the problem: Wannabe Barry is gettting going early in the season, so the Mississippi River is higher than it would be in say, September, the height of hurricane season.  Tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico aren't too off the charts weird in July, but it's still a bit unusual for things to be cranking this early.

The real trouble is the Mississippi River is very, very high from all the epic rains that fell upstream in the Midwest between March and June. So the water is now at around 16 feet, which is just a little below flood stage. A storm surge from wannabe Barry could push the water up over 20 feet, which would overtop levees and potentially give us Katrina all over again.

Another levee system that kept the waters of the Gulf of Mexico out of New Orleans led to the Katrina calamity of 2005. This potential mess would be different, as the water would be from the river, not the Gulf.

Of course, this is all a big maybe at this point. Maybe the surge won't be that big. Maybe Barry won't get very strong. Maybe Barry's path will take a turn so that New Orleans need not worry about anything.

Some forecasts say the unusually high water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico might prompt Wannabe Barry to grow much more intense than current estimates. Winds in the upper atmosphere over the northern Gulf of Mexico will also become lighter, another sign that this could get pretty big pretty fast.

On the other hand, there the winds in the upper atmosphere might be stronger than forecast, or there could be intrusions of dry air, or wannabe Barry could travel closer to land during its formative stages, all of which could hobble this storm and make it not that much of  a powerhouse.

The track of the storm, which will be key on who gets the worst of it, is still a wild card, too. Nobody is sure where this thing will go.  

Yesterday, when flood forecasts put the storm surge flood expectations at 19 feet, not 20 feet, officials were sanguine about everything. Even at 20 feet, workers can reinforce levees and close flood gates to stave off flooding.

All this means that another catastrophic flood in the New Orleans area is not a done deal. At all. But it's enough to make me and a whole bunch of other people worried.

Plus, this morning's flood was no walk in the park. There's lots of damage in and around New Orleans from today's inundation. We can all hope that this turns out to be the worst of it.

As anybody in Nebraska, or California, or Washington DC or Kansas or Oklahoma or Ontario or Quebec can tell you, we've had enough flooding disasters lately.

Will A Tropical Storm With An Origin Over Tennessee Form In Gulf Of Mexico?

The National Hurricane Center is telling us there's a decent chance that Tropical Storm Barry could form in the Gulf of Mexico this week.

This computer model shows the chances of a tropical storm
over any shaded area between now and July 21. Note
this is just ONE computer model and there is a lot of
uncertainty over whether Tropical Storm Barry
will form in the Gulf of Mexico. Take this
map with a giant grain of salt. 

That fact isn't all that unusual. Tropical storms do form pretty often this early in the hurricane season.

Water in the  Gulf of Mexico is easily warm enough to support a tropical system. This type of storm needs very warm water to survive.

The origins of wannabe Tropical Storm Barry seem a bit unusual. But it's also the type of thing that happens occasionally. I should back up and explain.

An area of low pressure, really just a lame swirl of showers and thunderstorms, has been meandering slowly from western Tennessee down toward the Southeast.

This little system is not impressive, and this morning, had few showers associated with it. During the afternoons and evenings, this system has been popping up some pretty good thunderstorms in the South

However, sometimes, it doesn't take much to set up a tropical storm, or at least the potential for one. This weak little stormish thing is forecast to sink south into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

There, it will start to feed off the warm Gulf of Mexico water and perhaps develop into a tropical storm. It's already got some spin to it, which could also help its development. The National Hurricane  Center gives this a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical storm within the next five days or so.

This all goes to prove that a tropical storm does not need to have its origins in the tropics, although most tropical storms and hurricanes have their beginnings over tropical ocean waters.

Still, wannabe Barry isn't all that unusual. Sometimes, a cold front will drop into the Gulf of Mexico and then stall. A few days later, a tropical storm or hurricane pops out of the stalled front.

If wannabe Barry forms, nobody is really sure where it will go. It does pose the risk of dumping very heavy rain somewhere along the Gulf Coast of the United States. Time will tell.

Hurricane Michael Upgraded To Rare Category 5 Storm At Landfall

Add caption

It turns out Hurricane Michael, which devastated parts of the Florida Panhandle and surrounding areas last October 10, was even stronger than first thought.

It was a rare landfalling Category 5 hurricane, the strongest you can get. It had previously been regarded as a higher end Category 4, but a re-analysis has determined the extremely powerful hurricane was even a little worse than everybody assumed.

According to a statement Friday from NOAA's National Hurricane Center:

"Michael is the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States as a Category 5 since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and only the fourth on record. The others are the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935 and Hurricane Camille in 1969. Michael is also the strongest hurricane landfall on record in the Florida Panhandle and only the second known Category 5 landfall on the northern Gulf Coast."

Hurricane Michael was originally thought to have made landfall with top sustained winds of 155 mph, which is a high end Category 4. But it probably had sustained winds 5 mph higher, at 160 mph.

As a practical matter, the 5 mph difference has little real-life effect. The storm would have been pretty much as destructive if winds were "only" 155 mph instead of 160 mph. The top sustained winds of 160 mph probably occurred in a very small area around Mexico Beach, and Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida.

But the new designation helps demonstrate how extreme Michael was. The upgrade in the storm's intensity came after the National Hurricane Center reviewed wind measurements from aircraft, reports of surface wind measurements air presure, satellite intensity estimates and Doppler radar data. This includs a lot of data and analysis that was not immediately available at the moment Michael roared ashore, says NOAA.

Most hurricanes weaken as they approach a coastline, because friction with land usually interferes with the storm's air flow. Hurricane Michael kept strengthening right up to the moment of landfall. There's no telling how strong it would have gotten had it gone through more warm ocean water before reaching shore.

Only a few recorded hurricanes, like Hurricane Charley in southwestern Florida in 2004, strenghten rapidly until landfall. This type of hurricane is obviously extremely dangerous. People in the hurricane zone might have been expecting a weaker hurricane, only to confront a monster like Michael.

With this in mind, Hurricane Michael is sure to be studied extenstively going forward. Meteorologists will want to understand why some hurricanes strengthen dramatically as they approach the coast, like Michael did. Better forecasting in such situations will surely save lives.

I also think scientists will want to better understand whether climate change makes it more likely that hurricanes could pull a Michael and get much more dangerous as they come ashore.

Meanwhile, the people who suffered the effects of Hurricane Michael are probably not caring whether the storm had 155 or 160 mph winds. It'll take years to clean up the mess. CBS News said some people were still living in tents six months after the storm.

Hurricane Michael will also present dangers for years. About 350,000 acres of northwest Florida pine forests were completely destroyed by the hurricane. Another 4.6 million acres are damaged.  All that fallen timber presents a big wildfire danger, reports Scientific American.

Already, there has been on pretty good sized fire near Panama City, and there will probably be more.
All this is more proof that hurricanes don't really end when the winds die down. In some ways, they continue on for years.

Hurricanes Jose And Maria Just Keep On Menacing

Visible satellite view of growing Hurricane Maria taken
just after sunrise as the storm bears down on the
Leeward Islands. 

This very busy hurricane season continues to keep pace today, as we now have more specific forecasts of how Hurricane Jose will affect New England. And Hurricane Maria is a terrible threat to a number of Caribbean islands.

Let's take the two big storms one at a time:

HURRICANE JOSE

Coastal New England is now getting ready for Hurricane Jose, which won't hit the region directly, but  will be big enough to make for a very nasty midweek.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect from the Delaware Coast to southeastern Massachusetts. Some computer models bring gusts over 60 mph to some coastal locations as Jose makes its closest pass late Tuesday and Wednesday.

There will almost surely be some trees and wires down in the areas covered by the tropical storm watch.

It's going to rain like hell on the Cape and Islands, too, with maybe three to as much as eight inches of rain expected on outer Long Island, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and the Cape.

Forecasters are watching this closely. Right now it looks like the heaviest rain won't get that far inland, minimizing the chances of widespread flooding. However, if the downpours go just a little further west than expected, places like Boston and New York could see some pretty unpleasant urban flooding.

It looks like coastal flooding, battering waves and rip currents will affect beaches in New England all week, too.

On the bright side, Jose is weakening as it approaches New England, as it's being worn down by strong upper level winds and colder ocean temperatures. (Hurricanes need warm ocean water to survive and grow, if the water gets a little too cool, hurricanes tend to weaken.)

Jose will stay offshore, it looks like, but either it, or its remnants will linger southeast of New England all week into next weekend. There's even a chance it could head south again, find some warm water and begin to rebuild itself. We'll see about that.

Up here in Vermont, the effects from Jose will be minimal. There probably will be some showers from Jose in the southeastern half of the state Wednesday.

DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA

Hurricane Maria was rapidly intensifying this morning as it approached the central Leeward Islands. Its top sustained winds were 90 mph early this morning, but Maria is forecast to become a major hurricane - Category 3 or 4 with winds of 125 mph or more.

Maria's track is roughly parallel to the one destructive Hurricane Irma took, but Maria's path is just a little south of Irma's.

The northern Leeward Islands, and the Virgin Islands, completely trashed by Irma, are now going to get raked by Maria. It's just awful, to say the least.

Even worse, with the track further south, the central Leeward Islands, which didn't fare terribly with Irma, will get a horrible blow.

Also, Irma skirted Puerto Rico just to its north, causing massive power failures and some damage on that island, but it didn't devastate the U.S. territory.

At this point, it looks like Hurricane Maria will probably go right over Puerto Rico Wednesday or early Thursday while it is at top strength, so this is a real scary moment for them.

After Maria is done with Puerto Rico, it will head toward the northwest, kind of on a path toward the U.S. East Coast. But for the mainland, it's not time to panic yet, for sure. While it's possible Maria could hit, the massive hurricane could turn out to sea as well.

Nobody knows for sure, so we'll just have to keep watching.

National Hurricane Center Says They're Bracing For A Busy Season

Severe flooding in North Carolina last year from Hurricane
Matthew. The National Hurrican Center says this year
could be another busy hurricane season. 

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center   this morning said they are gearing up for a busier than normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.

Here's the scoop, straight from the source:

"Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 or higher) includig 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph of higher) An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes."

The official Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, though you can get some out of this season. We already had one tropical storm this year, Arlene last month.

Whether a potentially busy hurricane season badly affects the United States is still an open question. If we get these extra tropical storms and hurricanes, will many of them hit the coastline, or will most of them stay harmlessly out to sea?

Believe it or not, we still haven't had a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) make landfall in the United States in 12 year. That's a record long time.

However, as we well know, a hurricane doesn't have to be major, or cross the coastline to cause major trouble for us.

Last year, Major Hurricane Matthew stayed just offshore of Florida, and did not come ashore until it had weakened to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds in South Carolina.

Still, Matthew caused massive storm surge and river flooding in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, causing about $10 billion in damage in the United States and another $5 billion in the Caribbean.

We in Vermont remember Hurricane Irene in 2011, which was a tropical storm by the time it reached us but still caused what was easily one of the Top 5 worst flood disasters in Vermont history.

NOAA bases its 2017 forecast on several factors. During the hurricane season, El Nino, the periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to be weak or non-existent.

El Ninos increase upper air wind shear, which tears apart wannabe hurricanes. Also, water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are warmer than average. Warmer water tends to encourage tropical storms and hurricanes

Tropical Storm, Soon To Be Hurricane Otto Formed While We Weren't Looking

Strengthening, soon-to-be Hurricane Otto in the southwestern
Caribbean this morning  

Hurricane season in the Atlantic basin officially ends November 30, though you can get tropical storms after that date.

Usually by now, though, our attention has turned away from the tropical Atlantic and toward snowy type weather events, like the snowfall that just turned my Vermont surroundings into a winter wonderland.

While we weren't looking, sneaky Tropical Storm Otto formed off the east coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Actually, there's been an area of disturbed weather in that area of the southwestern Caribbean for many days now and most forecasters knew it had the potential to turn into a tropical storm.

But like I said, we tend not to pay attention as much this time of year as we do during the height of hurricane season.

Otto became a tropical storm yesterday, As of 11 a.m., Otto was roughly 500 miles east of Costa Rica and Nicaragua and pretty much not moving anywhere. It had sustained winds of up to 70 mph, just short of hurricane strength.

The National Hurricane Center thinks Otto will become a hurricane later today and start drifting westward toward Central America.

I like the goofy name Otto, but this storm could end up being deadly serious.

At this point, it looks like Otto will hit the coast somewhere near the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua sometime on Thursday.

Predicting the strength of a hurricane, especially one like this one that's late season, over warm water in this section of the Caribbean, is tough. The current thinking is it will have sustained winds of 90 mph at landfall, which is dangerous enough, but there is a potential for Otto to get even stronger than that.

Otto's torrential rains moving into the steep terrain after landfall makes the risk of devastating flash floods.

Otto is unusually far south for an Atlantic hurricane. If it hits the coast as a hurricane as now predicted, it would be the farthest south an Atlantic basin hurricane has been recorded making landfall, says Bob Hanson at Weather Underground.

If Otto goes far enough south to make landfall in Costa Rica, it will be the first Atlantic hurricane to score a direct hit on that nation. Tropical storms have hit Costa Rica, but not full blown hurricanes.

The storm will weaken greatly over land, but will be intact enough to emerge out over the Pacific Ocean this weekend. I have no idea if it will strengthen back to a tropical storm when that happens.

Hurricane Matthew Continues Extremely Dangerous

Hurricane Matthew south of Jamaica and Haiti
Sunday morning, still packing winds of up to 150 mph.

It seems Haiti is in Matthew's crosshairs now.

Hurricane Matthew is still churning in the Caribbean, packing 150 mph winds.  

It's made its long-anticipated turn to the north, but it's position is just a hair east of where we thought it would be a couple days ago.

Which is sort of good news for Jamaica. That island nation will still get a terrible hurricane with devastating flash floods and horrific winds, but it won't be the direct blow we anticipated.

The very, VERY bad news is Matthew has its sights on the poverty stricken nation of Haiti. Most buildings there are not up to the task of withstanding Matthew's winds, even if the storm weakens ever so slightly, as anticipated.

Worse, the National Hurricane Center expects 15 to 25 inches of rain, with local amounts to 40 inches in Haiti because of Matthew.

To put those amounts in perspective, it normally takes a year for us New Englanders to accumulate 35 to 40 inches of precipitation. Haiti's going to get that amount in a couple of days.

Worse, Haiti is a hilly nation, and everybody has stripped the hillsides of trees in a desperate bid for firewood. (They can't afford fuel)

The lack of trees means there's nothing to hold the hillsides in place during torrential rains and nothing to absorb water. There is going to be horrible, fatal mudslides and flash floods in Haiti. I'm terribly worried about the people who live there.'

Cuba, too. Eastern Cuba is going to be nailed by Matthew, too.  The weather will deteroriate in these areas during the day today, and these nations should expect the brunt of the hurricane Monday into early Tuesday

Matthew is strong, but has had an odd appearance over the past day or more. It's got its traditional small, calm eye with its intense winds circulating around it. The core of Matthew is not huge in size as hurricanes go, but it is wild.

However, Matthew has also hung on to a huge blob of intense thunderstorms just to its east. If that holds together, it could end up prolonging the agony of Matthew in Haiti and neighboring Dominican Republic.

It appears this huge blob of storms on the east flank of Matthew is caused by the collision of trade winds blowing from the east as they normally do, colliding with strong west winds on the southern half of Matthew.

When winds collide like this, they have nowhere to go but up. Intense rising air means intense thunderstorms, and that explains Matthew's eastern blob.

The next port of call for Matthew after Haiti and Cuba is the Bahamas, where hurricane watches are already up. Matthew, once again, will probably have weakened a bit more by the time in reaches the Bahamas, but will still pack powerful winds of 110 mph, says the National Hurricane Center.

Plus, you have to remember: Meteorologists are better at forecasting the path of a hurricane than they are the strength. Matthew could regenerate big time amid the warm waters of the Bahamas. Even the best forecasters at the National Hurricane Center know their strength forecast for Matthew over the Bahamas could be a bust.

On top of that, meteorologists still aren't that great at forecasting the path of hurricanes once you get three days or more out. That's not a slam at scientists, it's just that we still have a lot to learn about hurricanes and other tropical systems.

There's still a LOT of questions as to what Matthew will do once it gets to and past the Bahamas. Will it curve harmlessly out to sea? Slam into North Carolina, then spread heavy rains up into the Northeast. Stay off shore until it gets to the Northeast and crash into New England? Or will it do something else?

All this depends on how Matthew interacts with a strong ridge of high pressure over and east of the Canadian Maritimes, a storm system in the Ohio Valley, and a weak tropical system that might form northeast of Matthew.

Subtle changes in the positions, or forecast positions of all these weather systems will greatly influence the path of Matthew.

For us New Englanders, even if Matthew gets this far north, it would happen a week from now. Which means we have plenty of time to monitor forecasts and act accordingly.

Don't panic now if somebody on social media posts a forecast image of Matthew slamming into New England as a very strong hurricane. There are many computer forecasting models that have dozens of scenarios for Matthew, so we shouldn't hang on to one forecast.

Anyone who tells you now on social media that New England is definitely screwed is a hurricane troll. Don't pay attention. Just listen to reliable weather sources. (The National Hurricane Center, the National Weather Service and The Weather Channel are good places to start.)

I'll try my best to relay good information, and I'll try to do it in plain English as we go forward with Matthew.

Wednesday Evening Update: Joaquin And The Euro

Strengthening Hurricane Joaquin Wednesday afternoon
with sustained winds of 85 mph. 

The talented guys and gals at the National Hurricane Center must be pulling their hair out, if they have any left.

They're struggling with battling forecast models on what the future of Hurricane Joaquin is going to be.  

Plus, the stakes are high: Joaquin could cause a HUGE disaster somewhere on the U.S. East Coast if it makes landfall there, which it well might.

PLUS, at this point, with such an uncertain forecast, when and how does the National Hurricane Center basically press the button and issue warnings for the United States, and how do you do it without causing either panic or complacency?

PLUS PLUS, There's already dangerous weather occuring and brewing on the East Coast, whether or not Joaquin arrives or not. One batch of torrential rain is exiting the northeastern United States, causing patches of nasty flooding in spots from the Gulf Coast of Alabama to Downeast Maine.

More bouts of flooding rains are due along the East Coast, again, with or without Joaquin, over the coming days. If people have to prepare for a hurricane how best to do it amid very inclement weather, or worse, weather that is already causing a disaster?

PLUS PLUS PLUS: Most forecasting models want to forecast Hurricane Joaquin to make landfall somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey.

The outlyer in this is the European model, Euro for short. It's usually quite reliable. You might remember the Euro as the one that told us that Hurricane Sandy would take a sharp left turn and hit New Jersey. The Euro told us this days before it would happen, and during a time when most of the other forecasting models said Sandy would cruise by off the coast and we shouldn't think it was a big deal.

Of course, Sandy was a big, BIG deal.

Now, The Euro is arguing with many of the forecasting models again. The Euro keeps Joaquin well off the coast, and has it heading northeastward out to sea instead of hitting the United States.

Yes, the Euro is reliable. But it doesn't mean it's right this time. Nobody knows whether its right or not.

The National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center is trying to get as much data as possible on weather patterns. In fact they're going through extreme efforts. The more data the forecasting computer models have, the better the chances they'll come up with an accurate forecast.

Hurricane hunter planes have been buzzing Joaquin. Local National Weather Service offices in the eastern half of the United States have been frantically launching weather balloons, so we can get data upwind from the hurricane, to see how the trough of low pressure and weather fronts and such will affect Joaquin's motion.

Most of the computer models think the big trough of low pressure, which is a big dip in the jet stream over the East Coast, will grab Joachin and suck him north and west toward the East Coast.

The Euro model is noticing Joaquin is currently headed toward the southwest, with his eye on the Bahamas. Apparently, the Euro thinks Joaquin will dip far enough south that it will be out of reach from the pesky trough further north over the eastern United States.

Instead a frontal system and the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida would pull Joaquin toward the northeast and way from the United States, the Euro is thinking.

Don't ask me or anybody else to read the minds of these murky computer models. All we can do is let forecasters keep crunching the data, and maybe by tomorrow we'll have a better guess on where Joaquin is going. Maybe.

The bottom line: If Joaquin misses, parts of the eastern United States are in for some major flooding regardless of missing out on a hurricane.

If Joaquin hits, we're in for a major natural disaster.

If you're anywhere in the eastern United States, especially from southern New England to the Carolinas, you really, really want to keep an eye on this.

National Hurricane Center Like Many of Us: Hot On Twitter, Cool To Facebook

If you live in any hurricane prone area of the nation this year and want immediate updates if a storm threatens, go to Twitter, not Facebook.  

Sorry, Facebook.  Hurricane forecasters say if you
want quick storm updates go to Twitter.  

That's the message direct from the National Hurricane Center. It turns out the hurricane center has the same frustration with Facebook that I and many others have.

Facebook's algorithms decide what they think is most relevant to what you want to read, and not necessarily a nice chronilogical feed of information onto your Facebook page.

That's nice for advertisers who want to target their marketing to you and whoever else is looking at Facebook.

It's not so nice if you are looking for immediate news updates. To me, the most relevant information of the day is whether a hurricane is going to wash my house away in an hour; updates on Justin Bieber's antics are not so important but what do I know?

Anyway, the National Hurricane Center says if you must use social media to get updates on storms they're tracking, go to Twitter. Your feed is usually at least somewhat in chronological order.

Hell, I often go to Twitter to see about breaking news, so that makes total sense to me.

National Hurricane Center updates that pop up on Twitter will direct you to their home page for more information.

It's probably just as well to just keep their page in mind if a hurricane or tropical storm is on its way.

Meteorologists and weather forecasters who focus on a wide variety of severe weather warnings also say Twitter has become more valuable than Facebook to issue alerts.