"Potential" Tropical Storm Is Really Being Hyped

Just one of many potential tracks for Wannabe Isias.  Expect
forecasts to shift around a lot in the coming days.

If I were to believe some media and social media posts, I'd thing a Category 999 hurricane was about to blow Florida out of existence.

Before we got on with this post, some facts to clear up.

I hope you understand that I know that hurricanes only go up to Category 5; there's no such thing a "Category 999."

Category 5 is the worst hurricane you can get.  There is currently no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.   In fact, there are no hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

It's possible a tropical system of some sort could affect Florida over the weekend, but we don't know for sure if that will happen, and if it does, how big a deal it would be.

So here's the non-hype version, as best as I understand it.  If you want more information beyone what I'm about to describe, check out what real live scientists are saying over at the National Hurricane Center. 

The hype you're hearing is prompted by something called "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine." As of this morning, it was causing really crappy weather way out there in the Lesser Antilles, and will probably do the same to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tomorrow.

They haven't given "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine" a name yet because it hasn't developed a well defined circulation.  It's just a mass of gusty thunderstorms that overall have some spin, but haven't congealed into a storm yet. But as of early this morning, it was getting close to that level.

When it does (or even if) it gets its act together, it will be named Isaias.  If you're curious, it's pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

As you're probably sick of hearing from me by now, forecasting the strength of direction of any tropical system can get tricky.

It's especially so with Wannabe Isaias.  It's a huge clump of thunderstorms, and where a center eventually forms will determine its path and strength.  Right now, even the folks at National Hurricane Center are throwing up their hands a bit with this one.

But they're giving it a try, because that's what they do.

If Wannabe Isaias gets it act together today, it might get punched down to a wannabe again if it hits the Dominican Republic directly.  The mountains there will screw it up.

If Wannabe Isaias detours around that mountainous island, it could keep getting stronger.

This is where the Florida hype comes in. Wannabe Isaias  could  cause trouble in places like Puerto Rico, the Virgin Island, maybe Cuba or the Bahamas.

Forecasts tracks as of this morning take this thing toward Florida, but remember what I just said: Where the center of Wannabe Isaias eventually establishes itself will determine a lot about its future path.

It could pass south of Florida and go into the Gulf of Mexico.  Maybe it will hit Florida. Or it'll curve north and then east and miss the United States entirely.  Note to Donald Trump: We don't know if Wannabe Isaias will affect Alabama. 

We just don't know any of this for certain yet.  Don't believe anyone who tells you they know for sure where this is going. They don't. At least not yet.  And don't even get me started with questions on whether Wannabe Isaias will affect Vermont and if it does, how so?  Use your Magic 8 ball for that one.

As mentioned above, we also don't know what kind of strength or lack thereof Wannabe Isaias will have.

So here's what you SHOULD do regarding Wannabe Isaias:

1. Continue monitoring the storm, especially if you live in or have interests in the Virgin Islands, Hait, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida.  No need for any kind of panic, by the way.

2. It's early in the hurricane season.  If you live in hurricane prone areas, or flood prone areas, now is a great time to pop down to Home Depot or Lowe's or whatever to pick up your hurricane preparedness supplies. This is whether or not Wannabe Isaias amounts to anything. Wear your mask  into the stores, please!

3. Have a plan in case Wannabe Isaias or any other tropical storm or hurricane comes along.  If told to evacuate, where would you go?  Make it easy to grab important documents and medications and such if you have to go.  Think about what you would do with pets.  Add in some extra planning because of this Covid pandemic.

4.  If this thing does get close to you and the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers start barking orders, like prepare or even evacuate, do what they say. It'll make it easier on everyone. Including yourselves.

Gulf Coast Might Learn Hurricane Season Ain't Over; Meanwhile, Cloudy Vermont

Some potential tracks of wannabe Tropical Storm
Michael. It may or may not form, and don't
assume this forecast scenario is exactly right.
It could easily change. 

We're past the peak of hurricane season, but we've still got a ways to go before it's over. True to form, things might be heating up again in the tropical storm department.

In the late spring, then again in early fall, something called Central American Gyre often forms. Sounds scary, doesn't it? Well, it can be.

This gyre, which we will get all geeky about and called a CAG. is a broad, wet circulation of air that gets going in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Our buddy CAG can produce torrential rain and terrible flooding in Central America.

Our CAG is also good at spitting out tropical storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and off the west coast of Africa.  CAG seems poised to create a new tropical storm, which would be named Michael, if it does form.

Strong upper level winds around CAG will probably make any tropical storm fairly slow to develop, but a particularly concentrated area of bad weather in this region this morning seemed on the cusp of turning into a tropical depression, which is usually a precursor to a tropical storm or hurricane.

As always, the path of wannabe Michael is uncertain, but early indications are it wants to drift northward somwhere between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and then eventually toward maybe the Florida Panhandle.

It's still unclear if wannabe Michael will get it's act together to form a hurricane, or just be a sloppy mess of downpours if and when it reaches the United States. But it's something to watch for next week.

CLOUDY VERMONT

We had a really sunny summer and early autumn in Vermont but lately the clouds are winning out.

Wispy clouds gave us a gorgeous sunrise over St. Albans, Vermont
Friday morning, but the clouds later increased, and we mostly
stuck under the clouds for the next few days.

That's typical. As we move through the autumn, it tends to get cloudier and cloudier until we hit November and December, when the days are so short and the skies are pretty much always overcast, which is pretty yucky.

But we deal with it every year.  

The clouds won out last night, which was actually a good thing. Had it stayed clear, as many forecasters had predicted, we would have had quite a bit of frost around. But the clouds kept us warmer than expected.

Keep those gardens cranking as long as you can, right?

The price we'll pay is a cloudy weekend. A cold front is slowly sagging southward, which will create plenty of clouds and scattered showers.

As the front sinks southward through the area Sunday, it will keep the clouds around. Also, an inversion is likely to develop.

Usually, the air gets colder the higher you go up in elevation. In an inversion, it gets warmer as you go up. That warm air on top of the cold air seals in the clouds, so you get a dreary mix of fog, low clouds and drizzle, which appears to be the fate for most of us on Sunday.

During the summer, the strong sun usually can break up an inversion by mixing up the air. In those cases the sun comes out by afternoon. But now, the sun is lower and weaker, so it won't be able to break up the inversion. You probably won't need your sunglasses on Sunday.

The clouds and drizzle look like they might continue into Monday. Then the inversion will finally break up. We might get some sun next week but it won't be wall to wall sun. It will get warmer, though.

Don't despair if you don't like the clouds. We still usually get spells of bright, sunny weather through the rest of the month of October and into early November. I'm sure that will happen this year.

We're Likely To See Tropical Storm Earl Any Minute Now

This storminess south of Hispaniola today
is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm
Earl later today or tonight. 

Last week I said the tropical Atlantic was getting active, and sure enough, a new tropical storm looks like it will get going any minute now.

One of the weather disturbances that I said was way out over the central Atlantic raced westward and now it's in the western Caribbean already and is approaching Jamaica. 

It's pretty well organized and getting more organized, but doesn't yet have a full, circular wind pattern that you need to declare this a tropical storm.

Still, winds are running at 40 to 45 mph north of the storm's center, says the National Hurricane Center.

The weather system's circulation will probably become whole later today and tonight, and that will mean we'll have Tropical Storm Earl.

Wannabe Earl will probably keep zipping along on a generally westbound direction and will threaten Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and/or Guatemala later in the week.

Earl could easily strengthen into a nasty hurricane by the time it reaches Mexico or Central America. Upper air patterns favor strengthening, and the ocean water in the path of Wannabe Earl is at near record highs.

In general, the warmer the water, the more likely it is for  a tropical storm or hurricane to strengthen.

Stay tuned! 

Tropical Storm Erika Is Kaput; Done In By Mountains, Upper Level Winds

Tropical Storm Erika, which earlier this week represented a real threat to become the potential first full-fledged hurricane to hit Florida in ten years, instead fell apart earlier this morning.

Since its inception, Erika battled shear, which is defined as strong upper level winds that tear apart the thunderstorms that make up the center of a tropical storm. Dry air also got pulled into the system, which further hurt Erika's chances of developing.
'
What finally finished her off were the mountains of Hispaniola, the island that contains the nation of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Tropical storms and hurricanes weaken when they reach land, especially if those lands are mountainous.

Erika was originally forecast to skirt by Hispaniola, stay over water and potentially strengthen, but it hit land instead.

Erika will still be remembered as a terrible storm that caused a flood on the island of Dominica, killing at least 20 people.

The remnants of Erika are still VERY wet and still headed toward Florida. So while Florida won't get a hurricane, there could still be some flooding in that neck of the woods early next week.

On the bright side, the remains of Erika will probably dump fairly heavy rain on South Florida, which has been in a drought.

Florida's governor had declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Erika. He'll probably be criticized for "needlessly" putting state resources into hurricane preparation.

But, better safe than sorry. Florida would have been really screwed had they not begun preparing, and then Erika hit hard. I hope Florida residents don't get complacent.

The next time there is a state of emergency in Florida because of a predicted hurricane, and there WILL be such an occasion, let's hope people take it seriously.

I suppose Erika could regenerate after its remnants get north of Cuba and into the warm southeastern Gulf of Mexico waters. That's somewhat unlikely but possible. Stay tuned!!!!