Possible Bad News With Tropical Storms Dorian, Erin

Tropical Storm Dorian east of Puerto Rico early this morning. It's
looking more organized than it did yesterday.

As expected, forecasts keep shifting for Tropical Storm Dorian, and as of now, the news is worse for Florida, which could end up taking a nasty hit.

Land interaction, which could have potentially killed Dorian if it went over Puerto Rico or especially the Dominican Republic.  

Now it looks like Tropical Storm Dorian will just clip eastern Puerto Rico before head northwest into warm, open waters, where it could strengthen. That means it won't be over land long enough to get destroyed.

Top sustained winds with Dorian this morning were up to 60 mph, and the Natonal Hurricane Center says the storm definitely looks better organized than yesterday.

Dorian is going to cause problems in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. Puerto Rico is especially vulnerable. Their electrical system is still a mess after Hurricane Maria two years ago. Tropical storm force winds will be enough to wreck the lines once again.

Even more so than yesterday, Florida had better watch out for Dorian. It will be mostly over open water as it moves northwest, then west toward Florida, as it stands now.

Very often, a tropical storm or a hurricane heading northwest near Puerto Rico will curve harmlessly out to sea. But a large high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean looks like it will get in the way, steering Dorian westward toward Florida.

The National Hurricane Center says computer models have Dorian strengthening into a hurricane by Friday and remaining a potentially strong hurricane as it nears the northeast Florida coast on Monday. The NHC also says the hurricane would grow larger in size with time before it hits Florida.

This of course is a preliminary forecast, and the eventual path and strength of Dorian could end up being very different from current forecasts.

But if this prediction stays on track, this would be a rare hurricane hit for northeast Florida. The coastline there sort of curves inward, and hurricanes tend to hit either further south in Florida, or up the coast in the Carolinas.  This one could be serious, and we need to keep an eye on it.

TROPICAL STORM ERIN

That tropical depression off the East Coast yesterday has strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin. It only has sustained winds of 40 mph and won't get much stronger, says the National Hurricane Center. It will also stay well off the East Coast and eventually come ashore somewhere near Nova Scotia late Thursday or early Friday.

So no problem, right?

In this case, wrong. Or at least kinda wrong. A cold front that will give us showers here in Vermont later today will keep trucking deeper into New England. That will draw tropical moisture from Erin northwestward into eastern New England.

Flash flood watches are up for eastern Maine, coastal New Hampshire, eastern and central Massachusetts and Rhode Island later today and tonight. The worst downpours will be hit and miss, but a few spots could get four or five inches of rain in a short period of time, so that's a problem.

Rainfall might be locally  heavy in southeastern Vermont, too, but it likely won't be bad enough to cause any issues.

Tropical Storm Dorian And Other Tropical Updates

Tropical Storm Dorian, as seen in this forecast path,
could make it to Florida by Sunday. But will it survive the trip?

Over the past couple of days little Tropical Storm Dorian has been making its way generally westward across the Atlantic, and still, noboy can figure out how much trouble it will cause.

Dorian is over warm water and there is a lack of strong winds aloft, which favors strengthening.  But it's surrounded by dry air aloft, which is choking the thunderstorms Dorian is trying to develop and get stronger.

All this leaves a lot of questions about how bad this will get. Meanwhile, other parts of the Atlantic are bubbling with activity, which I'll get to in a moment.

Dorian is expected to move by close to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic Wednesday and Thursday. Of course, this isn't terrific news for Puerto Rico in particular, as it continues to struggle with the aftermath of 2017's mega hurricane Maria.

Obviously, Dorian won't be nearly as bad as Maria as it passes by Puerto Rico, but it's still not going to help.

Forecasters have gotten better at predicted the paths of tropical storms and hurricanes, but forecasting their strength still prompts experts to pull their hair out.

Interaction with land usually weakens tropical storms and hurricanes. It's possible this could be like Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, which was similar in size and location to Dorian.  The land interaction around the Dominican Republic destroyed Erika.

Erika did cause death and destruction, especially in Dominica from flooding. Erika scared the bejeezus out of Florida because it seemed headed for that state. But the land interaction and dry air aloft blew Erika apart before it reached Florida.

Dorian's forecast track takes it to Florida by around Sunday, at least that's what current predictions show. With land interaction in Caribbean Islands and dry air aloft choking the system down, will Dorian make it as far as Florida? If it does, which is iffy, how strong will it be? The National Hurricane Center is on it, but it's a tough forecast.

Stay tuned. Sam bat channel.

The other day, we talked about a disturbance near Florida that was threatening to become a tropical storm. Since then, it has to a spot well off the South Carolina coast and has become a poorly organized tropical depression.

Still, it is expected to become Tropical Storm Erin later today.  High winds aloft will keep wannabe Erin from developing much. Current forecasts have it moving northeastward far off the U.S East Coast as a relatively weak tropical storm. It's remains will probably hit Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday.