Saturday, August 24, 2019

Right On Cue, Tropical Atlantic Bubbling Up With Possible Storms

Thunderstorms bubble on Friday off the east coast of Florida. This
will probably turn into a tropical storm. Image via NOAA/RAMMB
The oceans always know what season it is.

In the Atlantic Ocean, late August is often the time when tropical storms and potential hurricanes really start to ramp up toward their September peak.

It looks like this year is no exception. The Atlantic Ocean is suddenly bubbling with at least potential activity. Right now, there are no dire threats, but there are things to watch.

We mentioned weak Tropical Storm Chantal a couple days ago.  It dissipated as expected. Its remains are several hundred miles west of the Azore Islands. It could possibly redevelop, but I wouldn't worry about that right now.

What is a bit more worrisome is a developing storm that the National Hurricane Center said this morning was over southern Florida. Over land, things don't develop into tropical storms. But this little storm is expected to move northeastward off the east central Florida coast, where it could easily turn into a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center gives this area of thunderstorms a 90 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm in the next few days.

You do have to watch tropical storms and wannabe hurricanes near the Florida east coast.They can come north and affect us here in New England. In this case, though, it looks like this wannabe tropical storm will want to move northeast, and stay well off the East Coast.

It could turn into a hurricane out there, so there will probably be some high surf issues on East Coast beaches in the coming days. This thing could also brush southeastern Canada. We'll see.

The wannabe hurricane might also help to stall a cold front midweek approaching from the Great Lakes. That would possibly delay or prolong a period of showery weather around Wednesday up here in Vermont. Again, we'll see how that turns out. It's so uncertain now.

There's another area of disturbed weather way out in the central Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. It is heading west to northwest and has a pretty high chance of turning into another tropical storm

This path eventually toward the Caribbean is a classic one for peak season tropical storms and hurricanes.  It's not clear how well this thing will develop, or even whether it will hold together as it possibly nears the Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,  Cuba and maybe Florida many, many days from now.

I can't see an immediate threat from this, but it needs to be watched carefully over the next week or two.

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