Worries Grow As Dorian Continues Targeting Florida

Bigger and meaner. Dorian looking larger and more intense
than it did yesterday or the day before.

Hurricane Dorian, becoming more and more formitable, continues on a path that continues to look like it will smash Florida.

Chances are now very high that it will come ashore as a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, with winds of up to 140 mph, devastating storm surges and torrential rains which will cause severe inland flooding.

Yep, another disaster is in the works. 

The National Hurricane Center this morning said Dorian had top winds of 110 mph and forecasters say all kinds of factors are at play to make the storm strengthen more.

The water Dorian is passing over is very warm. Upper level winds are light, which hurricanes like.  Early in its life, Dorian battled dry air. The air surrounding Dorian keeps getting more humid the further west it goes. 

Regarding the track, computer models have been "windshield wipering," as they say, for the past couple of days and that might continue. By this I mean, forecasts have Dorian coming ashore further south, then north, then south in or near Florida. This kind of "windshield wipering" is common with forecasts leading up to a major hurricane.

Really, it doesn't matter that much in precisely what city Dorian comes ashore at.  It will cause big problems over a wide area of Florida. This is true even if Dorian manages to curve north just along or off the east coast of Florida, as a small minority of computer models indicate.

Here's a few other things to consider with Dorian:

Coastal flooding, in small part tied to Dorian, is already happening in the Southeast. The new moon is causing "King Tides" which are higher than normal tides created by the position of the moon.  Climate change has contributed to sea level rise, so King Tides have been routinely causing flooding in places like Miami and Charleston, South Carolina.

Easterly winds created by high pressure that's steering Dorian toward Florida and pushing even more water up against the shore from Miami to Cape Hatteras. Damaging coastal floods are starting to occur even though Dorian is nowhere near the United States yet. 

In the "here we go again" department, it looks like there's a good chance that Dorian's forward motion could slow down dramatically in or near Florida. That would prolong the torrential rains and surges and wind from Dorian. That would also worsen inland flooding. It seems we're going through these hurricane "stalls" a lot lately, what with the slow motion of Hurricanes Harvey, Florence and Matthew in recent years.

If you know anyone living in Florida, tell them to get ready if they haven't already.  Dorian at this point is expected to make landfall on Monday.  Tropical force winds and rain could arrive as early as Saturday, so things should be getting done now.

And for gawd's sake if the emergency managers tell you to evacuate, go. Don't ride this out. I'm sure evacuation notices will start flying today if they haven't already, so be ready to leave if you're in the hurricane zone.

I suppose it's possible Dorian could unexpectedly weaken before reaching Florida, or take a surprise turn away. But the chances of that happening look pretty slim at this point.

One last thought: Some long range forecasting models bring Dorian or its remains to eastern New England in about a week. That's speculation at this point, but we'll eventually have to watch and see what happens in that regard.