Dorian Mostly Misses Puerto Rico, But Florida Might Be Screwed

Healthy looking Hurricane Dorian, now well north of Puerto Rico
as seen here Thursday morning. 

Hurricane Dorian went through quite a strengthening phase on Wednesday, becoming a hurricane at least two days before most forecasters expected it to.

That it largely missed Puerto Rico is obviously good, since Dorian's peak winds had increased to 85 mph.  Not a lot of new destruction there.

But Dorian didn't interact with land, which means it stayed strong and has a great shot of getting stronger. Florida is still in its sights.

Dorian is still fighting off dry air trying to intrude. A bit of that dry air did get to the core of the storm overnight. But the National Hurricane Center warns that Dorian has a lot going for it. Relatively strong upper level winds, which can squelch hurricanes, are forecast to weaken.

Dorian is over very warm water and will remain over the toasty H2O for the rest of its journey.  That's a recipe for strengthening, and the NHC says rapid strengthening is possible over the next couple of days.

Strength forecasts for hurricanes are very tricky. Anything could happen. But the National Hurricane Center says Dorian could come ashore in Florida with winds of 125 mph - a major, destructive hurricane. Like we need another one, after Harvey, Florence, Irma and Michael over the past couple of years caused so many billions of dollars in damage in the United States.

High pressure to the north is still forecast to keep Hurricane Dorian heading to the northwest, then west toward Florida. The path is still iffy.  And nobody is sure where on the east coast of Florida Dorian might hit. Some models take it to near the Georgia/Florida border. Other models take it as far south as Miami. So the whole state is in play.

The timing now suggests that the worst of Dorian would hit Florida on Monday - Labor Day.

Predictably but wisely, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency, which funnels money and resourses to local governments and emergency managers to get ready for the storm, as The Weather Channel notes. 

People in Florida are spooked and getting ready for the storm. In Orlando, bottled water has already been cleared from shelves by shoppers preparing for Dorian. Lines for gasoline are really long.

However, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says retailers have ordered extra supplies to be available in the days leading up the the hurricane, and gas supplies are still good.

Some coastal flooding is likely well in advance of Dorian, especially around Miami.  Seasonal king tides, will cause some flooding, and the approaching hurricane might help to push a little extra water ashore.

Another thing to note. If Hurricane Dorian hits south Florida, it would eventually emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. That would create a risk Dorian could gather itself up again, organize and become a threat to the Gulf Coast. We'll see.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin fizzled off the United States East Coast. As expected, it contributed to some heavy rain in eastern New England, but there fortunately wasn't a lot of flooding.

Here in Vermont, Erin contributed a bit of moisture to a slow moving cold front, so we benefitted from some decent showers.

Big Nor'easter This Weekend: Facts Vs. Hype

Quite a few areas in the eastern United States
 might look something like this by the upcoming weekend
because a nor'easter is now expected for the region. 

By now, a lot of you have heard rumors about a big nor'easter that will be The End Of The World Snowpocalypse, if you believe the hype and the people trying to get more and more social media clicks for fun and profit.

The truth is, that yes, it looks like parts of the East Coast are in for a big nasty snowstorm, and it could get fairly wild in spots. But DON"T count on everyone from Florida to Maine to be covered in 80 feet of snow or something.

Let's just get into what we can tell you with any scientific and realistic basis:

WHAT WE KNOW:

It looks almost certain there will be a strong and strengthening nor'easter along or just off the East Coast starting Friday and into the weekend.

It's quite likely somebody is going to get a lot of snow.  At this point, it looks like the Mid-Atlantic states are in for the heaviest accumulations, but that could change.

If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say West Virginia, Virginia, parts of Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey might get the most snow out of this.

Those areas could easily get a foot of snow, and two feet of snow in some areas in that region are not out of the question. Again, that could change as the track of the storm becomes more certain.

At this point, it looks like the worst of the storm and most of the snow would miss northwestern Pennsylvania, northern New York, most of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northwestern Maine. Again this could change. A few computer forecasting models do bring somewhat heavier snow further northwest into these regions. Others don't We'll have to wait and see how this plays out

In any event, don't cry too hard, northern New York and Vermont skiers. Today, the mountains in those states will get their third light to moderate snowfall since Saturday. The snow is coming in small doses, but it adds up.    

Here's a National Weather Service map
showing the expected strong nor'easter along
the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. 

If you live along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, listen to forecasts and coastal flood advisories.

Since the waters along and off the coast are abnormally warm, this storm could conceivably get stronger than even some forecasts indicate. That would mean the possibility of strong winds, high tides and battering waves

WHAT TO DO ABOUT THIS:

1. Watch: Continue to monitor forecasts if you live on the East Coast or in the Appalachians. I'd follow the National Weather Service or a local meteorologist or weather forecaster in your area that you trust. and know has a good reputation. Don't trust the social media hype machine.

2. Be Ready: Just in case, get ready but don't panic. This isn't the end of the world. It couldn't hurt to swing by the grocery store if you're low on food in the house. It might be tricky to drive to the store at the height of the storm in the worst hit areas.  If you're that type, it also wouldn't be the worst idea to stock up on wine or beer or hot chocolate or anything that makes you warm and happy in the winter.

3. Fuel: t also can't hurt to swing by the gas station to fill up your tank and make sure there's enough fuel to heat the house. The fuel delivery people aren't thrilled about going out in big snowstorms to make emergency deliveries.

4. Change Happens: Know the forecast is certain to change between now and when the storm arrives. That doesn't mean  meteorolgists are clueless. It means that nor'easters are notoriously tricky to forecast. Some small parts of every nor'easter forecast are wrong. Sometimes big parts of the forecast are wrong.

That means there's a chance that some areas now targeted for very heavy snow might not get it, and some areas outside the expected heavy snow zone might get more than we now think. Also, some areas along the coast could get rain or a mix involved, too.

5. Tis The Season: It's winter. Deal with it. Big snowstorms are part of the bargain during most winters, even in "warm" places like Virginia and Washington DC. Just be smart about it, don't take unnecessary chances on the roads, have some teenager shovel your driveway if you're heart is iffy and you're out of shape.

6. Attitude Is Everything: Enjoy it. If you get a big snowstorm and you don't like snow, there's nothing you can do about it. Except change your attitude. Download some very funny movies to watch during the snowstorm.

Have a snowball fight with the kids. Impress the neighbors with an immense snow sculpture. Let your dogs out into the snow, wait until they do something stupid in the drifts.  Take a video of their antics and put it on YouTube.

If you wanted a lot of snow and don't get it out of this storm, chill. There will always be new snowstorms later this winter, or next winter. Wait and you shall receive.

Monday Morning Update: The Blizzard Of 2015 Is Still On, Big Time

I don't know if things will get THIS bad, but the
Northeast is still on track for a huge blizzard tonight
through Tuesday.  

A quick check of forecasts and computer models and such has revealed little change in the overall forecast for the Blizzard of 2015 in the northeastern United States.  

As the storm draws closer, and during the storm, us weather geeks will get excited or focus on all kinds of particular computer model outputs with this storm

Forecasters will keep fussing with picky details of the storm, based on new information that will keep churning out.

They'll raise or lower expected snow totals slightly in given areas, raise or lower wind speeds, that kind of thing.

For the general public, don't get too hung up on subtle tweaks in the forecast. Whether you get 15 or 20 or 30 or 40 inches of badly windblown snow, the impacts are going to be HUGE.

In that respect, who really cares if you get 23 or 24 inches of snow?  I'll get into some of the picky details a bit later in this post.

Already, the effects of this storm are being felt, and it hasn't really even started snowing yet. Airlines are cancellling flights left and right, and by early Monday morning, more than 2,000 were gone by the wayside for today and tomorrow.

If you're planning on driving anywhere in the Northeast today, don't bother. You'll probably make it to where you're going today, as things won't be too bad, but then you'll be stuck there as the blizzard blasts in tonight and tomorrow.  And who knows how long it will take to clear the roads when the snow tapers off Wednesday?

There's still time to get ready this morning and early afternoon. Especially if you live in the blizzard warning zone, lay in some supplies in case you're stuck at home for a few days.

Though I wouldn't panic like this guy:



Instead of panicking over BREAD AND MILK!!!  get some nonperishable food (in case the power goes out and the refrigerator doesn't work) your medications- enough to last several days, some bottled water to drink and for hygiene, and some flashlights, batteries and that type of thing.  Oh, and make sure smoke and carbon monoxide detectors work and get some extra batteries for those, too.

You might want to keep your smart phones and such fully charged, too, in case the power does go out.

Once the storm starts, stay inside. Near the beginning of the storm during the day today and perhaps early this evening,  it won't be snowing that hard in most places so you might think, "This isn't so bad."

Then the real heavy stuff comes and you're stuck in your stalled, freezing car out on the Interstate until gawd knows when.  Not a nice place to die of exposure or carbon monoxide poisoning, let me tell you.

If you want to take pictures and video during the blizzard, go right ahead. But do it right near your house so you can get inside right away and not get stuck out there.

Check in on your elderly neighbors, too, to make sure they're doing OK during the blizzard.

As I noted, the overall forecast hasn't changed. Nobody has substantially changed the areas under blizzard or winter storm warnings. The expected areas of heaviest weather haven't shifted much at all.

If you want glimmers of good news (or bad, if you like extremes) there's a chance, just a chance, that New York City won't get as much snow as some of the higher end forecasts. But 18 to 24 inches at this point still looks like a good bet, and with winds expected to gust as high as 55 mph in the Big Apple, this is still going to be, as the National Weather Service puts it, a crippling and life threatening storm.

Up in New England, I see almost no changes in forecasts from Sunday evening. The National Weather Service headquarters in Taunton, Mass. is fussing with details of whether one or two particularly heavy snow bands set up northwest of the storm center and where those bands will be located.

Nobody is quite sure on that topic, but within those semi-stationary bands during the height of the storm is where we'll see the highest storm totals with this. Possible three feet or more.

I'm still the most worried about coastal flooding and storm surges with this storm, as that's what will cause the most destruction. It's hard to say whether the peak of the storm surges will come with Tuesday morning's high tide or during low tide a few hours later.

But in any event, definitely continue to expect coastal flooding and very nasty beach erosion. The flooding will be moderate in some areas, severe in a few others. I continue to worry that some houses in coastal Long Island, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine and especially Massachusetts could b badly damaged or destroyed.

Most of the snow in the blizzard region will be powdery, which means the strong winds will blow the snow off trees and power lines. That's a good thing, as that would minimize the risk of power failures. But with such strong winds, power failures are still a big threat.

In some coastal areas, like eastern Long Island, Cape Cod and the Islands, the snow could end up being wet and heavy and sticky. And those same areas are the ones that are likely to get the strongest winds, up to or even exceeding 70 mph in spots during the height of the storm.

With such strong winds and wet snow, the threat of long lasting power failures is greatest in the spots I just mentioned.

The storm, as forecast last night, will extend well into central and northern New England, where winter storm warnings are up for about a foot of snow,

The big snows look like they'll miss far northwestern New England, where it looks like at most, just a few inches of snow from Burlington, Vermont on north and west.

Don't expect the snow to melt anytime soon once the blizzard is over. Colder than normal weather is likely for probably the next couple of weeks, with maybe one or two days thrown in that aren't too, too cold.

It might even snow in the blizzard zone again on Friday, but that storm, if it forms, won't be anything close to what's coming tonight and tomorrow.