Fast Start To Tropical Storm Season, But No Biggies - Yet

Hurricane Katrina in the devastating tropical storm season of 2005.
So far in 2020, there have been more storms than normal, but all
weak. That will change as we head further into hurricane season

If you blinked, you missed it.

But Tropical Storm Edouard formed in the Atlantic Ocean well off the United States East Coast Sunday and dissipated in less than 24 hours. Top winds were a paltry 40 mph.

The only impressive thing about Edouard was it's the earliest we've gotten to the letter "E" for an Atlantic tropical storm on record. (Tropical storms come in alphabetical order, so Edouard was the fifth tropical storm of the season).

The last time we'e seen anything like this was the previous record breaking early season in 2005, when Emily formed on July 12, 2005.

That year was when the infamous Hurricane Katrina hit.  We also had destructive hurricanes Rita and Wilma, among others.

Like most years, the early storms so far this summer have been relatively weak, with none of them becoming full-blown hurricanes. The early season of 2005 was remarkable because storms like Dennis became a Category 4 monster near Cuba and Emily in the Atlantic turned into the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. Both storms formed in July that year.

Category 5 storms are the strongest and worst of the bunch.  

In an average year, the first full hurricane of the season gets going around August 10. The season peaks in September.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters, writing in the Yale Climate Connection, noted the early 2005 storms formed deep in the tropics. That pattern is usually a harbinger of a severe hurricane season and 2005 was certainly that.

So far, all but one of this year's tropical storms have formed further north, which is less of a sign that this year will be tough.  There might actually be another northern, weak tropical storm in our future. There's a weather disturbance over Georgia this morning.  If it emerges out into the werm waters off the coast of the Carolinas, it could turn into Tropical Storm Fay in a few days.

But don't relax.  There are plenty of other signs we could be in trouble with hurricanes later this summer and fall.

The tropical Atlanttic waters are mostly much warmer than average.  Hot water is fuel for hurricanes, as long as there's not a lot of strong upper level winds to tear thunderstorms apart. Overall water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are actually a little warmer than the toasty levels see in 2005.

The overall weather pattern, and relatively warm water tempertatures in the eastern Pacific, influence the air over the Atlantic tropical region.  Upper level winds are forecast to be relatively light in the Atlantic, which would encourage hurricanes to form.

Additionally, a region in Africa south of the Sahara Desert has been wet and stormy in the late spring and early summer.

If this pattern continues. some of that storminess would move westward off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean and spawn hurricanes.

Hurricanes forming from these disturbances coming from Africa are often the most dangerous. They have time to get strong as they move westward toward the Caribbean, and ultimately, sometimes the United States.

Even if this year turns out to be a busy one with hurricanes, everything depends on their paths.  If all of them manage to stay well out to sea, well, then who cares? It's all good.

But chances are, at least one biggie, if not more will threaten Caribbean islands and the United States. Basically, everyone even remotely near the coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine should keep an eye on the tropics through the autumn, just in case.

Tropical Trouble All Over The Place: Texas Now The Focus

Gorgeous but dangerous Hurricane Humberto approaching Bermuda
this morning.

Tropical storms and hurricanes seem to be popping up all over the place, so I'm sure the people at the National Hurricane Center are wicked busy!

With the glaring exception of the upper Texas coast, there is no immediate threat to land in the United States, but plenty to watch. 

IMELDA

First let's get to that situation in Texas. As I mentioned a few days ago, it has been rather dry in and around Houston, Texas lately, so residents there at first were gratefully watching a weather disturbance move westward across the Gulf of Mexico toward them, promising some drought-busting rains.

However they do things big in Texas and the rain has become way too much of a good thing.

As the disturbance neared the Texas coast in the past couple of days, it looked more and more like a tropical storm trying to form. Things escalated quickly on Tuesday, even with prior forecasts warning of heavy rains and floods with this thing.

At around noon Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center noted the definite circulation of the storm just off the Texas coast and declared it a tropical depression. Within 45 minutes, it strengthened enough, with top winds of 40 mph, to be declared Tropical Storm Imelda.

Less than an hour after that, Imelda made landfall near Freeport, Texas.  Since it went inland, the winds weakened and it soon was back to being a tropical depression. So this was one of the shortest lives I've seen for a tropical storm in a long time.

But Imelda's rains are lasting a long time, and that's the problem.  People in Houston and much of the rest of coastal Texas are always jittery when there are flood alerts, given the extreme havoc Hurricane Harvey caused in 2017.

This situation is no Harvey, but the flooding from ex-Imelda is definitely ramping up.

According to Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) Houston as of early this morning has escaped with little flooding, though areas south of the city have had torrential rains and flash flooding.  A few spots received up to five inches of rain in an hour. Reports out of Matagorda County indicate up to 20 inches of rain already.

The rain could ramp up in Houston itself later today.

There is a flood risk in eastern Texas from the former Imelda through tomorrow.

HUMBERTO

Hurricane Humberto has really cranked up with top winds of 115 mph. It looks like it will come very close to Bermuda tonight or early tomorrow, blasting them with hurricane force winds. Then it will thankfully keep heading northeastward, further and further away from us. Good riddance!

This is a large storm, with hurricane force winds extending out 60 miles from its eye. Tropical storm-force winds go out 175 miles. Despite the fact it's missing the United States by a wide margin, there will be dangerous swells and rip currents for the next few days.

JERRY

Tropical storm Jerry formed overnight way out over the central Atlantic, way east of the Leeward Islands. It is expected to grow into a hurricane and could threaten those islands in a couple days. Beyond that, it's not known yet where it will head. Earlier indications are it will turn north before reaching the United States, but that is definitely not guaranteed.

Right On Cue, Tropical Atlantic Bubbling Up With Possible Storms

Thunderstorms bubble on Friday off the east coast of Florida. This
will probably turn into a tropical storm. Image via NOAA/RAMMB

The oceans always know what season it is.

In the Atlantic Ocean, late August is often the time when tropical storms and potential hurricanes really start to ramp up toward their September peak.

It looks like this year is no exception. The Atlantic Ocean is suddenly bubbling with at least potential activity. Right now, there are no dire threats, but there are things to watch.

We mentioned weak Tropical Storm Chantal a couple days ago.  It dissipated as expected. Its remains are several hundred miles west of the Azore Islands. It could possibly redevelop, but I wouldn't worry about that right now.

What is a bit more worrisome is a developing storm that the National Hurricane Center said this morning was over southern Florida. Over land, things don't develop into tropical storms. But this little storm is expected to move northeastward off the east central Florida coast, where it could easily turn into a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center gives this area of thunderstorms a 90 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm in the next few days.

You do have to watch tropical storms and wannabe hurricanes near the Florida east coast.They can come north and affect us here in New England. In this case, though, it looks like this wannabe tropical storm will want to move northeast, and stay well off the East Coast.

It could turn into a hurricane out there, so there will probably be some high surf issues on East Coast beaches in the coming days. This thing could also brush southeastern Canada. We'll see.

The wannabe hurricane might also help to stall a cold front midweek approaching from the Great Lakes. That would possibly delay or prolong a period of showery weather around Wednesday up here in Vermont. Again, we'll see how that turns out. It's so uncertain now.

There's another area of disturbed weather way out in the central Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. It is heading west to northwest and has a pretty high chance of turning into another tropical storm

This path eventually toward the Caribbean is a classic one for peak season tropical storms and hurricanes.  It's not clear how well this thing will develop, or even whether it will hold together as it possibly nears the Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,  Cuba and maybe Florida many, many days from now.

I can't see an immediate threat from this, but it needs to be watched carefully over the next week or two.

Gulf Coast Might Learn Hurricane Season Ain't Over; Meanwhile, Cloudy Vermont

Some potential tracks of wannabe Tropical Storm
Michael. It may or may not form, and don't
assume this forecast scenario is exactly right.
It could easily change. 

We're past the peak of hurricane season, but we've still got a ways to go before it's over. True to form, things might be heating up again in the tropical storm department.

In the late spring, then again in early fall, something called Central American Gyre often forms. Sounds scary, doesn't it? Well, it can be.

This gyre, which we will get all geeky about and called a CAG. is a broad, wet circulation of air that gets going in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Our buddy CAG can produce torrential rain and terrible flooding in Central America.

Our CAG is also good at spitting out tropical storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and off the west coast of Africa.  CAG seems poised to create a new tropical storm, which would be named Michael, if it does form.

Strong upper level winds around CAG will probably make any tropical storm fairly slow to develop, but a particularly concentrated area of bad weather in this region this morning seemed on the cusp of turning into a tropical depression, which is usually a precursor to a tropical storm or hurricane.

As always, the path of wannabe Michael is uncertain, but early indications are it wants to drift northward somwhere between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and then eventually toward maybe the Florida Panhandle.

It's still unclear if wannabe Michael will get it's act together to form a hurricane, or just be a sloppy mess of downpours if and when it reaches the United States. But it's something to watch for next week.

CLOUDY VERMONT

We had a really sunny summer and early autumn in Vermont but lately the clouds are winning out.

Wispy clouds gave us a gorgeous sunrise over St. Albans, Vermont
Friday morning, but the clouds later increased, and we mostly
stuck under the clouds for the next few days.

That's typical. As we move through the autumn, it tends to get cloudier and cloudier until we hit November and December, when the days are so short and the skies are pretty much always overcast, which is pretty yucky.

But we deal with it every year.  

The clouds won out last night, which was actually a good thing. Had it stayed clear, as many forecasters had predicted, we would have had quite a bit of frost around. But the clouds kept us warmer than expected.

Keep those gardens cranking as long as you can, right?

The price we'll pay is a cloudy weekend. A cold front is slowly sagging southward, which will create plenty of clouds and scattered showers.

As the front sinks southward through the area Sunday, it will keep the clouds around. Also, an inversion is likely to develop.

Usually, the air gets colder the higher you go up in elevation. In an inversion, it gets warmer as you go up. That warm air on top of the cold air seals in the clouds, so you get a dreary mix of fog, low clouds and drizzle, which appears to be the fate for most of us on Sunday.

During the summer, the strong sun usually can break up an inversion by mixing up the air. In those cases the sun comes out by afternoon. But now, the sun is lower and weaker, so it won't be able to break up the inversion. You probably won't need your sunglasses on Sunday.

The clouds and drizzle look like they might continue into Monday. Then the inversion will finally break up. We might get some sun next week but it won't be wall to wall sun. It will get warmer, though.

Don't despair if you don't like the clouds. We still usually get spells of bright, sunny weather through the rest of the month of October and into early November. I'm sure that will happen this year.

Florence And All Kinds Of Tropical Threats

Busy satellite map of the Atlantic. Click on the image to make it
bigger and easier to see. From left to right: Mass of clouds over
Midwest is former Tropical Storm Gordon The yellow X is
a disturbance that's not expected to amount to much. Then
we have Florence, then soon-to-be Tropical Storm Isaac,
then Tropical Storm Helene near the African coast. 

You'll have to forgive me, but this blog will be mostly about tropical storms and hurricanes for awhile as the peak of hurricane season has hit with a vengeance.

It was supposed to be a quiet year for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, but for the time being, it's most certainly not.

There's all kinds of things to talk about. The eastern Pacific Ocean is a mess, too, with tropical storms and hurricanes buzzing around.

So let's get to it with our Saturday update:

EX-TROPICAL STORM GORDON

As I expected, the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon is causing a LOT more trouble than it did when it was an actual tropical storm along the Gulf Coast several days ago.

The former Gordon is dumping horrible amounts of rain in the Midwest, and this trend will continue big time today. A weather front associated with ex-Gordon is spreading downpours into the already soggy Middle Atlantic states too. This is bad, because that could be setting the stage for cataclysmic flooding if Hurricane Florence comes along later next week. (More on that in a minute.)

There's a high risk of flooding in parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio today, which is the top level alert put out by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center when it assesses flood risks.

Four to eight inches of rain is expected today in much of this region, which has had repeated bouts of downpours over the past few weeks. Flooding is basically inevitable, and it could easily become severe and life threatening.

Gordon's flood threat will likely extend more into Ohio and Pennsylvania tomorrow. 

As noted yesterday, Ex-Gordon will actually be good for us here in Vermont. Forecasters are hopeful that it will dump one to two inches of rain on the drought landscape of central and northern Vermont Monday and Monday night.

The storm could also cause some gusty winds along the west slopes of the Green Mountains. That might cause a couple branches and maybe an isolated power failure or two, but with the rain, it will be worth it.

HURRICANE FLORENCE

As noted yesterday, high upper level winds did a number on Hurricane Florence, reducing it to a sloppy mess of a tropical storm with top winds of only 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Florence this morning. After being torn into a mess
 by upper level winds over the past couple of days, the storm
is now looking more symmetrical, a sign that it will soon
restrengthen, possibly rapidly. 

Those upper level winds are easing this morning, and Florence is definitely reviving, according to this morning's statement from the National Hurricane Center. 

Strong thunderstorms near the core of the storm are growing, and Florence is getting more organized again. It will almost certainly be a hurricane again by tomorrow.

Florence is heading westward into a zone with light upper level winds and hot ocean water. This is a perfect environment for hurricanes and Florence is expected to intensify quickly.

It could even achieve Category 5 status - the strongest and most dangerous hurricane type possible.

Which puts the East Coast in the United States in peril. Florence has certainly been unpredictable, but  at the moment, all guidance wants to push Florence toward the East Coast. It's still impossible to know whether it will plow ashore or curve to the north and miss the United States for a close miss.

If it does crash ashore, nobody is sure where. The first guess right now is somewhere near the Carolinas but that's iffy. If it does threaten the United States, it won't be until near the end of this coming week. Stay tuned on this one, because it has the potential to turn into another hurricane nightmare for the United States.

Even after its winds die down, the risk for torrential rains on saturated soil makes me too nervous to think about

By the way, nobody has any idea whether Florence will have any effects here in Vermont.

TROPICAL STORM HELENE

This time of year, disturbances come off the west coast of Africa and then move westward into the open Atlantic. Often, a few days after they leave Africa, these disturbances become tropical storms or hurricanes.

It's very rare that a disturbance will turn into a tropical storm almost immediately after leaving Africa, but Tropical Storm Helene has done just that. It's still only got winds of 45 mph, but Helene is expected to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane.

The good news is early indications are the Helene will curve to the north far out over the Atlantic Ocean and miss most populated areas.  Of course, we originally thought Florence would do that, so it's worth it to keep a watch on Helene.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE

Another disturbance moved off the west African Coast a few days ago and it's now getting its act together to the west of Helene. It's now called Tropical Depression Nine, but will soon be named Tropical Storm Isaac.

This one really bears watching. It's expected to move pretty much due west over the next five days and approach the Lesser Antilles Islands in about five to six days as a hurricane. From there, it's anybody's guess, but this one could threaten ultimately threaten places like Puerto Rico again. (ugh!) and possibly the mainland United States.

It's too soon to speculate, but this could be a worrisome one.  There is plenty of time for it to decide to miss land, so we don't have to panic over Isaac yet.

HURRICANE OLIVIA

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Olivia is spinning way out there with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph as of this morning. It's slowly weakening, but still could approach Hawaii early next week, so we'll have to watch that.

Rare Dual June Tropical Storms And East Coast Storm Cleanup

Summer time is often the doldrums when it comes to weather.

This big mess of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to
become Tropical or Subtropical Storm Cindy.

It's hot and humid and nothing much happens. Oh sure, you get your occasional severe thunderstorms, a few searing heat waves, maybe a local flood or two.

But things so far in this young summer are coming fast and furiously.

I've already mentioned a couple days ago that terrible heat wave in the Southwest, where all time record high temperatures are being threatened today.

The Northeast today is cleaning up after punishing thunderstorms and flash floods on Monday. I'll have more on that in a bit.

JUNE TROPICAL STORMS

But first, we have the rare spectacle of two Atlantic tropical storms spinning up at the same time. It's the first time that's happened in June since 1968.

That is, if a near-tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico gets its act together today.

Tropical Storm Bret spun up in the far southern Caribbean yesterday, slashing Trinidad and Tobago and the northern coast of Venezuela with gusty winds and torrential rains.

It's heading toward the west with top sustained winds of 45 mph. It probably won't get much stronger, and forecasters think Bret will fall apart in a couple days. Stronger upper level winds will probably kill Bret before it reaches the coast of Nicaragua.

A bigger worry, at least for us in the United States, is a tropical storm or subtropical storm is  expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico, possibly today. (A subtropical storm has characteristics of both a tropical storm and a regular old low pressure system.)

The Gulf of Mexico storm has winds of 40 mph, enough to have it declared a tropical storm. However, as of early this morning, it didn't have a nice circular center, which you need to have a tropical storm.

The storm was getting better organized, so the National Hurricane Center gave this storm a 90 percent chance of becoming Tropical Storm Cindy.

Forecasters are worried about wannabe Cindy because it's heading north toward the United States Gulf Coast. Tropical storm warnings are up for the Louisiana coast, and a tropical storm watch is up for the far eastern Texas coastline.

Storm surges in the low lying coasts could definitely cause flooding with this.

A bigger worry is the torrential rains that will come in with Wannabe Cindy. At this point, the storm poses an inland flood threat from East Texas and Louisiana all the way up to Tennessee and Kentucky, and possible east of that in the coming days.

EAST COAST STORMS

As expected, lots of strong and severe thunderstorms popped up in the Northeast Monday, sending plenty of trees and powerlines crashing down, sometimes onto cars and houses. Flash flooding became a real problem, especially in parts of southern Vermont and New Hampshire.

Only one tornado was reported so far, an EF-0 with 70 mph winds that trashed some trees in Maryland.

Departing storm clouds cast an orange glow at sunset last
evening in St. Albans, Vermont.

Here in Vermont, flooding was pretty widespread in and around Brattleboro. A large mudslide closed Route 30 northwest of Brattleboro. The Brattleboro Reformer also reported mudslides along Route 5 and Route 9. Back roads had washouts.

Parts of Rutland City also flooded amid the heavy rains.

Today, only scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Northeast, including Vermont.

No more flooding is expected, except in northern Maine, where the storms might be heavy enough to cause further flash flooding

Here's a video of some flooding along Route 9 west of Brattleboro, Vermont:

Tropical Trouble: Florida, Hawaii Most Under Threat Now

Thunderstorms are firing up big time in that
weather disturbance heading toward Florida.
It's an indication that there's a good chance it
will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Hermine later today 

I know I've been posting awfully frequently about tropical disturbances and hurricanes ane such, but it is the peak of the hurricane season.

Things are busy and heating up even more, so it's a good idea to stay up to date.

The biggest threats for bad tropical weather right now are in Florida and Hawaii.

There's now even a slight chance a wannabe tropical storm could bring some drought relief to southeastern New England. That's a long shot, but it's something to hope for.

Here are the details:

FLORIDA'S WANNABE HERMINE

That hyped storm that we've been talking about that came across the Caribbean and into the southern Bahamas, Cuba and south of Florida never developed as so many had forecasted.

Now this thing has gotten into the Gulf of Mexico and looks like it's finally getting its act together. Upper level winds that had been tearing the wannabe tropical storm apart have waned a bit. The water beneath the storm is incredibly warm.

Satellite photos this morning show that this thing has really revved up, with big thunderstorms now nearer to the center of the little storm's circulation. I really think the National Hurricane Center later today will upgrade this - finally - to a tropical storm and name it Hermine.  (Not to be confused with Hermoine from the Harry Potter series.)

Forecasts call for Wannabe Hermine to move north, then northeastward toward the Big Bend of Florida. That's the spot in Florida on the northwestern side of the state where the peninsula ends and turns west to form the state's panhandle.

There's a chance that Wannabe Hermine could strengthen into a hurricane by the time it hits that northwestern corner of Florida.

So, that region is under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. At this point, the storm cold cause storm surges in low-lying sections of northwestern Florida of three to five feet in some spots

Worse, Wannabe Hermine could easily drop five, ten, even 15 inches of rain on northwestern Florida, which would create a big flash flood problem.

Things are getting a little more interesting regarding what happens after that with Wannabe Hermine.

It looks like it will emerge into the Atlantic Ocean along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. If it remains offshore and not inland in those states, it could restrengthen after crossing northern Florida, or at least maintain its power.

Heavy rains could set off flooding in parts of Georgia and South Carolina over the weekend.

Most computer models take Wannabe Hermine off the coast and away from the United States after it gets past North Carolina. But a few computer models want to take it toward coastal New England.

Though that would wash out Labor Day plans in southeastern New England, that area is experiencing an nasty drought and could use a good dousing.  The chances that Wannabe Hermine would make it to New England seem low at the moment, but it's something to watch.

Another thing to consider that's VERY IMPORTANT: If you're planning a beach trip anywhere along the East Coast, including all of New England's shoreline, there's going to be dangerous rip currents, waves and such will make going in the water dangerous

What with Wannabe Hermine, powerful Hurricane Gaston way off the coast and Tropical Depression #8 heading away from North Carolina, the seas along the East Coast are going to be way, way stirred up. Be careful!!

HAWAII TROUBLE:

Hurricane Madeline is going to go just south of the Big Island of Hawaii this afternoon. It was a major hurricane, but luckily, it's rapidly weakening.

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester churning toward
Hawaii yesterday. They're both on a weakening
trend today but still pose a big threat to Hawaii.  

Still, this is a big deal for Hawaii. The Big Island in particular can expect damaging winds, storm surges on the coast and nasty flash floods today as Madeline goes by. The rest of the Hawaiin chain is in for rough weather today, too.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Lester is expected to pass just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands later Friday and Saturday, with more wind, flooding and trouble like that.

I don't think there's ever been an occasion before where two hurricanes threaten Hawaii so much within just a few days of each other. Really nasty.

Tropical Storms In January? Very Odd

In the Northern Hemisphere, you pretty much never get tropical storms, hurricanes or typhoons in January.

Widespread clouds and storminess well off the East Coast of the United
States could evolve into a subtropical storm in several days
as it continues heading east and south.

These storms thrive on warm ocean temperatures and light jet stream winds high above any would-be tropical system.

In January, the oceans tend to be too cool, the jet stream too strong to get much of anything going.  

But there are exceptions, and this year is one.

Much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is unusually warm, thanks in large part to El Nino. That allowed a rare tropical storm named Pali to form about 1,000 miles southwest of Hawaii.

Pali is no threat to land, and will fall apart soon. But it is an emphatic bookend to perhaps the most active eastern and central Pacific hurricane season on record.

Meanwhile, there's potential trouble in the Atlantic, too.

There's a large storm, centered a little north of Bermuda, packing winds of up to 65 mph. It's not a tropical storm. It's a more typical strong, winter type storm that is common in the North Atlantic in January.

However, this one could move southeastward and head out over warmer Atlantic waters. Water that is even warmer than normal for this time of year.

If that happens, this storm could take on what is called subtropical characteristics.

A normal winter storm has a cold core. A tropical storm has a warm one. A subtropical storm, like what the Atlantic Ocean one might turn into, would retain some characteristics of a "normal" storm, but develop a warm core, with tropical thunderstroms spinning around that toasty center.

The National Hurricane Center says if this becomes a subtropical or even tropical storm, it would be named Alex. Normally, hurricane and tropical storm season starts June 1, so this would be very odd.

This one poses no immediate threat to land.

There have been a handful of tropical and subtropical storms in January over the Atlantic Ocean.

In modern history, there have been no fewer than five tropical or subtropical storms in the Atlantic in January. Two were holdovers from the previous December, but three actually formed in January.

At least one, Alice, which formed in December, 1954 briefly became a full-fledged hurricane in early January, 1955.

As I said, though. This situation, if it develops is rare. It's certainly a stormy winter anyway in the Northern Hemisphere, and these tropical or potential subtropical storms are adding to that mix

East Coast Rains To Be Too Much Of A Good Thing

Ocean surging onto the beach in Duck, North Carollina
this weekend. More coastal erosion is likely all week.  

It's been dry during the late summer and early autumn up and down most of the East Coast, but that sure is changing this week.

An interesting weather pattern has been setting up over the past couple of days and will come into full force this week.

The weather pattern will feature lots of rain, some wind, and especially damaging tides and beach erosion up and down the East Coast. Those coastal problems have already started.

Generally, the expected big rains are welcome because it has been so dry, but in some places, this might turn out to be too much of a good thing.

Some of the heavy rain has started too. The Carolinas, which had been dry, have gotten locally five or more inches of rain since late last week.

More rain is developing. There are flood watches now in the Florida Panhandle, which had also been dry. There has already been some nasty flooding around Mobile, Alabama. 

Over the course of the next seven days, three to five inches of rain could come down from the Middle Atlantic states into the eastern half of New England.

The weather pattern that's causing all this features a strong high pressure system over eastern Canada. Once it fully sets up, it won't move much most of the week. The clockwise winds around the high will bring lots of east to northeast winds to much of the East Coast.

The long fetch of east winds over water and astronomically high tides will continue the beach erosion and flooding during high tides that much of the East Coast has experienced the past couple of days.

High tides thsi weekend bring a kayaker
into the streets near Norfolk, Virginia  

That flooding could get worse as storminess increases along the coast, too. There's been a lot of wannabe tropical systems that never quite got going, including what was Tropical Storm Ida.

There's oodles of moisture with these wannabe systems, and just a general flow of intense wetness wanting to come up the East Coast.

On top of that, a tropical depression has formed between Bermuda and Florida. 

It will probably increase in strength a little to become Tropical Storm Joaquin.  There is a chance Joaquin or its remnants could head toward New England maybe next weekend.

That would increase the potentially flooding rains, the winds and the coastal flooding and erosion.

Luckily, as noted, it's been dry in New England and elsewhere in the East, so any flooding that does develop won't be as bad as it had been wet.

Inland in New England, where I live in Vermont, I was working in the yard yesterday and it was dust, dust, dust. A good one to three inches of rain is due in Vermont over the next seven days, which will be nice.

Not so nice is the long, long stretch of wave action on the coast. Expect lots of reports of serious beach erosion and repeated inundation of low lying areas.

This won't be anything like the epic coastal flooding of Superstorm Sandy in 2012, but the repeated high water and wave battering all this week is going to cause a lot of headaches, for sure.