Dorian Traumatizes Bahamas By Sitting There For Nearly Two Days

Astronaut Nick Hague took this photo of the eye of Hurricane Dorian
on Monday.

Hurricanes stall out and become stationary sometimes.

But I'm not aware of anything like Dorian, which has sat near one island in the Bahamas for something like 30 hours, all the while subjecting the people there to an incredible storm surge and devastating winds.

I really worry about the psychology of the survivors. Anytime someone experiences a category 4 or 5 hurricane, it's traumatic. But the worst of the storm is usually over within several hours and people an then go about the business of picking up the pieces. 

That's terrible, but not as bad as the Bahamas.

Storm surges, sometimes in excess of 20 feet, lingered all day. So did winds exceeding 100 mph. Videos emerged of people trapped in attics. Of storm surges coming into the second floor of a home. Of an airport that looked like a view of the open sea, hundreds of miles from shore.

At last report there were five confirmed deaths in the Bahamas, but I'm sure that toll will rise dramatically as people will finally be able to get in and assess things once Dorian finally starts moving away later today.

More videos at the bottom of this post.

I have to say the National Hurricane Center has been an amazingly steady hand in the extremely difficult, high-stakes forecasting for Hurricane Dorian. 

Had Dorian been way out over the Atlantic Ocean, 1,000 miles from land, it wouldn't make that much of a difference how long it stalled, or when it decided to turn north.

This situation is much more scary.  When it turns north will determine whether Florida gets a terrible disaster or just a glancing blow. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center are critical for emergency managers to determine who evacuates and who doesn't.

Too few evacuations could mean deaths. Too many are an expensive inconvenience. So far, the NWS forecasts have been spot on.  Donald Trump's criticism notwithstanding.

Trump caused some confusion when he said Alabama was being targeted. That was an error, because when he said that, Alabama was under no threat and the National Weather Service in Birmingham felt compelled to put out a statement telling Alabamans to chill and not worry about Dorian.

Of course, media reports of this hiccup were blasted as fake news by Trump, and his supporters blasted the National Weather Service for, um, being accurate.

But all this is a sideshow. I'll go with what the scientists say

The meteorologists (scientists) at National Hurricane Center continues to believe Dorian will start a northwestward, then northerly course later today. They're still not expecting it to come ashore in Florida, but that doesn't mean the Sunshine State will avoid bad weather. Not at all.

But at least there's a good chance that the strongest hurricane force winds will remain offshore. Still, there will be gusty winds, damaging waves and storm surges and the risk of heavy rain.

Plus, we still don't know exactly how close Dorian will get to Georgia and the Carolinas and strong the storm will be at that point.

It does look like Dorian will miss New England, except maybe clip Cape Cod and the islands with rough seas and gusty winds.

An overview from the Washington Post:



Storm surge inside a house: