As Expected, Blizzard Of 2016 Is Totally Raging Now

A warning Friday on a highway
on the East Coast. Not sure if a
blizzard or a "lizzard" is worse.

Well, it was certainly advertised and the Blizzard of 2016 is certainly raging.

This thing is just beginning and everything is going to pot. Pretty much all the nation's flight schedule is screwed up, since you pretty much can't fly in or out of places like Washington DC, Philadelphia and most other cities in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

I'm getting reports of 18 inches of snow already in western North Carolina and 16 inches in eastern Kentucky, and we're not even into the teeth of the storm.  

Sadly, there are also already reports of seven deaths associated with this storm, all of them so far in traffic crashes. Unfortunately, this death toll is sure to rise.

How big is this storm?

Eric Holthaus in Slate did a back of the envelop estimate which indicates enough snow will have fallen in thsi storm to give every man, woman and child in American 7,000 snowballs.

Quite a little snowball fight, then.

It's still playing out pretty much as expected. There are signs that the New York City area could get a bigger blow than some forecasts have suggested, but we'll have to wait and see on that.

As of 8 p.m. Friday, the first of the storm's particularly heavy snow bands were moving into the Washington DC area. If you haven't made it home yet if you live in that area, you're screwed. Snowfall rates will vary, but when the heaviest bands pass overhead, snowfall rates could get up to three inches per hour.

 The Mid-Atlantic region is still in the bullseye, with one to three feet expected.

Oh, and a Jim Cantore alert: There's a very good chance of thundersnow with this storm, which is the Weather Channel Cantore's favorite weather.

The bad weather goes way south. In North Carolina, they're experiencing very lovely sleet and freezing rain thundestorms this evening. Ugh.

Icy, snowy weather is extending as far south as Atlanta.

I'm still most worried tomorrow about coastal areas. With winds gusting to near hurricane force and unusually high tides and storm surges, this could be a real disaster for places like Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey.

This coastal flood potential has been well advertised for days now, but news about it has been squelched by the sexy prospect of record snow accumulations.

We'll have a LOT more to talk about with this storm first thing Saturday morning, when this disastrous storm reaches its peak.

Stay tuned!

Blizzard Now Trudging Into The East Coast

The American computer model predicts nearly three
feet of snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic (brown and gray
shades, and more than a foot in many other areas (yellow and orange)

As of this morning, snow was spreading into Virginia and nearby areas, marking the start of what still promises to be an epic blizzard.

Things are already totally screwed up. Good luck getting any flights along the East Coast. So many flights are cancelled that it's gumming up the works nationwide.

Store shelves across the Mid-Atlantic states have been cleared of bread, bottled water and all the other things people buy in a panic before a storm hits.  

Washington DC still seems to be the major city most in the bullseye for this storm, with more than two feet of wind-driven snow still expected.  The biggest snowstorm on record in DC dropped 28 inches of snow, so this one could set a new record.

Even before reaching the East Coast, this storm caused problems. A likely tornado damaged at least 10 houses in Lamar, Mississippi, and there were several other reports of hail and damaging winds near the Gulf Coast.

Tornado warnings were up just west of Tallahassee before dawn this morning.

More than six inches of snow plastered Little Rock, Arkansas, and a nasty mix of snow and freezing rain, all coming down hard, was trashing most of Tennessee early this morning.

The forecast for this storm remains remarkably consistent, changing little over the past three days, except along the northern edge of the areas expected to be affected by this. More on that in a minute.

One to three feet of snow is still expected in the Mid-Atlantic states and the central Appalachians, nasty coastal flooding is still expected from Maryland to Long Island, with Delaware and New Jersey most under the gun.  A very nasty, damaging ice storm is expected in much of North Carolina.

The question mark is around New York City, the largest metro area in America and the one place where no matter how good the meteorologists are, the forecast for this blizzard will probably be wrong.

There's going to be a strong cutoff along the northern edge of the storm between blizzard and nothing

As Slate writer Eric Holthaus tweeted this morning, one computer model had 20 inches of snow falling with this storm in Princeton, New Jersey but only two inches in the Bronx, just 60 miles to the north

The zone in which you transition from feet of snow to just a dusting is almost definitely going to be a little different from forecasts, because it always is in these situations.

The bread aisle in a Baltimore supermarket
was cleared out by last night. 

So, just like in a difficult blizzard forecast last January, parts or all of the New York City region are going to be buried in more snow than expected, angering just about everyone, or much less snow will fall than expected, which would mean no blizzard, and everyone will be angry about that.

Kudos to the National Weather Service meteorologists in and around New York, and all the TV meteorologists there for dealing with this situation professionally, and not quitting, and going into a corner to cry like I and a lot of other people would have if confronted with this forecasting nightmare.

At this point, the National Weather Service is going with six to 10 inches of snow in Manhattan, with much less to the north and much more to the south.

Forecasters are more certain about strong winds in the New York area, so the blizzard warning is still up in that region. We'll see what happens.

And to everyone in the blizzard zone, definitely heed all the weather warnings, don't travel until it's over and the roads begin to clear up and all will be fine.

Thursday Evening Thoughts On Epic East Coast Blizzard

I have to wonder if the Mid-Atlantic states will
look like New England after the epic
Blizzard of 1978 shown here. 

I'll get to some forecast and news updates about the giant nor'easter and blizzard about to slam the eastern United States, but first some thoughts:

You get a mix of emotions when there's an enormous storm about to hit any part of the country.

The most important piece is, and I hate to say it, people are going to die in this. No question about it.

Some might succumb to potential tornadoes this evening. People might die in traffic accidents on icy roads. Maybe a tree will fall on a house in a North Carolina ice storm tomorrow, killing someone in a bedroom.

Maybe somebody will have a heart attack shoveling snow. Or a snow-clogged vent will poison somebody with carbon dioxide. A coastal flood surge might drown somebody, or give them a fatal case of hypothermia as they get soaked in the towering waves on the Jersey shore.

I'm being morbid here, I admit. All but a handful of the tens of millions of people affected by this storm and blizzard will be just fine, and they'll have fun stories to tell to their grandkids.

Luckily, with ever big snowstorm or
blizzard we get a good sense of gallows humor. 

Still, even weather weenies like me, who live in a spot that will suffer absolutely no effects from this storm, get a little shiver of excitement at big storms like this. (I live in sunny northwestern Vermont, where not so much as one snowflake will come down from this big storm.)

Which means you do get a little pang of guilt over the thrill of a storm, knowing that this thing could really hurt somebody.

Like people at a wake or a funeral, sometimes we resort to humor to deal with this jumble of emotions. Yes, this isn't nearly as fraught as losing a close relative or friend, but the idea is the same.

There's lots of humor floating around this storm. Much of it is recycled from past storms, but that's OK. You also want the familiar along with the laughs.

The ever-reliable Onion offers us a whole laundry list of tips to "survive" the blizzard.

Among The Onion's tips: Purchase a CB radio to maintain lines of communication with other lunatics in your neighborhood; steer wildly when you hit the first patch of ice while driving;  be one of those idiots who buys all the bottled water at the supermarket;  and most importantly, criticize your mayor.

Now, this interlude.

A third grade teacher named Mary Morris in Strawberry Plains, Tennessee has come up with an awesome parody of Adele's exquisite, dramatic, but overplayed song "Hello" reworked as "Snow"

It has all the drama a fed-up teacher deals with in anticipating a snow day, as almost every school on the East Coast south of New England is experiencing.

The video is coming up, but sample lyrics:

"We need a snow day tomorrow
At least a good delay."

And:

"I love it when I get the call
and I don't have to work at all."

And:

"If it's going to be this cold
the least it could do is snow.
If I have to keep my students inside one more time for recess
I will lose my mind"

Here's the video. But scroll down beneath the video for the latest news and updates about the storm:


STORM NEWS UPDATE 

You just saw drama, or melodrama at least, in the above video, but the drama of the storm has certainly gotten going this Thursday afternoon and evening.

As expected, severe weather has developed in Louisiana and Mississippi, and it's spreading east. There have been a few tornado warnings this afternoon, but I haven't seen a confirmed tornado report yet. That could easily change.

As I write this at 5:30 p.m. EST, there were a few tornado warnings in central Mississippi, so this is definitely a developing story.

I'm very struck by the extremely close between the adjacent tornado watch and winter storm warning in northern Mississippi and Louisiana. That's a sure sign of a dynamic, rare, and awfully intense winter storm.

States of emergency have been declared in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina as the storm bears down tomorrow.  

Winter storm and blizzard warnings covered
a huge section of the nation Thursday evening (pini
and red areas) The yellow area is a tornado watch. 

If anything, forecasts of snow accumulation have increased today from North Carolina to New York City.

In some places, like Asheville, North Carolina, parts of Virginia and Maryland, this storm might exceed the levels of the thought-to-be impossible-to-beat Superstorm of March, 1993.

There is even serious talk in some areas of snow thunderstorms with accumulation rates of up to five inches per hour. That is INSANE!

An incredibly enormous area of blizzard warnings, blizzard watches and winter storm warnings extends from Arkansas to Long Island, and from southern Ohio to northern Georgia. That is One. Big. Area.

Nobody should try to drive, or fly to and from the Middle Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. Trains are kaput, too. The Washington DC metro is shutting down. 

Other than that, the forecast hasn't changed much. We're still expecting a terrible ice storm in North Carolina, at least for the areas that won't totally get buried in snow. Coastal flooding is an enormous concern from North Carolina to Long Island.

A measure of the concern comes from Hoboken, New Jersey, where coastal flood barriers were put in place today. That only happens in the most serious storms.

So, hunker down everyone in the storm zone! For most of you, it will be a wild, fun ride, as long as you stay safe. And preferably indoors.

Giant Storm Update: Mid-Atlantic States Still Totally Screwed

Traffic hopelessly mired Wednesday evening near Washington
DC after an inch of snow made roads icy. So what are
they going to do with the 20 inches forecast over the weekend? 

Well, this doesn't bode well.

The Washington DC area and its surrounding suburbs are still expecting a blizzard, with one to two feet of snow and strong winds Friday and Saturday.

Wednesday evening, a little mini-preview storm rolled through Our Nation's Capitol, dropping maybe an inch of snow.

Everything fell apart. Traffic came to a standstill on the ice and there were tons of accidents. Even President Obama's motorcade got stalled in the mess and kept sliding off the roads.

Things are still snarled down there this morning.

An inch of snow mired Washington. What's 18 inches going to do?

If I lived in that region, I'd just hibernate and forget the whole thing.

It's pretty impressive that the forecasts have remained pretty consistent regarding this storm for three days now, at least.

The forecast still calls for the heaviest snow - one to three feet - to fall in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the central Appalachians.  A few cities in Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland might end up having their largest snowstorms on record.

Also, as I mentioned yesterday, the expected deep snow is what everybody's talking about, but the biggest danger to life and property are coastal floods and surges, a likely nasty ice storm in the Carolinas, and possible tornadoes along the Gulf Coast, and in and near Florida.

Let's break it down again:

SEVERE STORMS/TORNADOES

There's an enhanced risk of severe storms and tornadoes today, especially in much of Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. An enhanced risk, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, means numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop.

In this case, the storm that will cause the Mid-Atlantic blizzard and ice is gathering strength as it travels from Texas toward the Carolinas. As it does so, it will draw warmth, moisture and instability from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to the tornado and severe storm threat.

The threat of severe thunderstorms and maybe a tornado or two will spread into northwestern Florida Friday.

SEVERE ICE STORM

As I said, everybody's talking about all the snow that looks like it's going to fall, but some people are in for a very dangerous ice storm with this one.

Pinning down exact locations and amounts of freezing rain are always tough with these kinds of storms, but the target area looks to be central North Carolina, parts of South Carolina and maybe southeastern Virginia.

The scene in Raleigh, North Carolina during a snow and ice
storm last February. Similar scenes can be expected Friday
and Saturday in North Carolina as snow and ice move
in. Photo byLindsay Webb. 

There will probably be enough ice in these areas to bring down trees and power lines. This being the south, all this ice is going to create a HUGE mess in the Carolinas.

This storm will end up reminding of that famous photo from last winter, when a snow and ice storm resulted in a car fire, lots of stuck cars and chaos on a Raleigh, North Carolina road.

I'd stay home Friday through the weekend if I lived in the Carolinas.

COASTAL FLOODING

Another aspect of the upcoming storm that hasn't been getting enough attention is the coastal flooding that's sure to hit the shores from Virginia to Long Island.

Most of the coastal flood watches mention moderate to major coastal flooding through three high tide cycles this weekend. The moon is full, so that makes the high tides associated with the storm even higher.

Sea levels that have increased in recent decades due to global warming and East Coast land sinking will help make matters worse with this storm.

Many forecasters are expecting tides in some areas to be among the top five highest on record. Huge battering waves amid 60 mph winds will make it even worse. I'm afraid we're going to see images on the news of beachfront homes crumbling, being ripped apart by waves or being washed away by the storm tides.

This piece of the storm is especially dangerous, so coastal communities from Long Island to North Carolina ought to be super, super careful.

OK, WE'LL MENTION THE SNOW:

Blizzard watches are up for Washington DC and Baltimore, Maryland and in the New York City area and Long Island. Winter storm watches and warnings are up for a huge area from Arkansas to New York.

This is forecast to be the second or third deepest snowstorm on record for Washington DC. I don't think they'll beat the record of 28 inches set in 1922.

But 20 inches or so of snow is not going to be a happy time for our nation's capitol. Maybe all those people running for president will drop out of the race today, because they don't want to live in a town that shuts down in an inch of snow, never mind two feet.

It won't help that the winds will gust to 55 mph or so during the storm, so maybe we'll get lucky and the drifts will cover the Capitol building burying all those Congress creatures, putting them out of sight, out of mind.

Seriously, though. Anybody who needs to prepare for this storm better do it today. Assuming the roads improve from last night's epic inch of snow.

Up in New York City and Long Island, less snow is forecast than in Washington, DC. The Big Apple is forecast to get maybe 8 to 12 inches of snow, along with those strong winds.

The forecast for New York has a big bust potential. They'll be near the northern edge of the storm's heavy snow. If the storm jogs just a tiny bit north, New York could get MUCH more snow than foreast.

If the storm curves just a wee bit south, New York would get barely a few inches, if that.

In some of the hardest hit areas, especially in West Virginia, western and central Virginia and the North Carolina mountains, I still wouldn't be surprised if we get some reports of three feet of snow out of this.

Eventually, all this snow will melt. If it goes to quickly, it could maybe lead to flooding down the road. Long range forecasts for a little over a week for now call for above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall in areas that are expected to be hardest hit by this blizzard.

It never ends, does it?