Long, Drawn Out Vermont Hot Spell Starts Today

Blue skies as far as the eye could see yesterday in Vermont as
a spell of very warm weather starts. This is looking north from
St. Albans, Vermont. You can make out hills in the distance
near Montreal. 

In those relatively rare occasions when Vermont goes for days on end of very warm to hot often humid weather, these spells almost always wait until July and August to happen. June hot spells usually last a day or two, then fade away pretty quickly.

Not this time.

Starting today, we are in for an early version of a lenghty hot spell, one that could conceivably last until next Wednesday.

At first, the humidity won't feel too bad at all. Notice how refreshing it felt early this morning.  By this afternoon, most of us will be well into the 80s.

Humidity levels will slowly come up. By the weekend and early next week, it will feel quite oppressive.

All his is part of a larger weather pattern that will keep a very warm dome of air - a high pressure system - especially over much of New England and southeastern Canada.

Some record highs are possible in parts of northern Maine and southern Quebec.

Here in Vermont, it doesn't really look like we'll have record highs -- with daily daytime readings expected to be well into the 80s to around 90 through early next week. Forecast highs in Burlington, for instance are between 86 and 88 degrees today through next Tuesday.

The fact that it has been so dry will help afternoon temperatures get warmer than they otherwise would.

If there were a lot of ground moisture from heavy rains, that moisture would percolate into the atmosphere, making it even more humid, but suppressing temperatures a bit.  The pre-existing dryness will help boost temperatures.

The dryness will be an increasing problem for most of us during this spell of very warm weather.  Starting Friday, then ramping up a little bit over the weekend and early next week, the warm, humid air will help fire up some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Most of these storms would be in the higher terrain. They'll be slow movers, so those lucky enough to get hit by one of these things will get some needed downpours. The trouble is, most of us will miss out, or get so little rain from the edges of these storms that it won't make a difference.

What I regard as a developing drought will only get worse during this hot spell.

It's unclear when any kind of cold front will sweep through with some refreshing air.  The best guess now is next Wednesday. If we're lucky, the cold front come come a day or so sooner than that. If we're unlucky, we'll need to wait until the end of next week to see any relief.

Calgary, Canada Battered By Massive Hail, Floods

Lots of hail and hail damage last evening in Calgary, Canada. Note
the siding damage in the house across the street. Photo by
Cadenza Langan, via CBC

Imagine a quiet Saturday evening in your home.

Then imagine a storm destroying your car, breaking your windows and making mincemeat of your house siding all within a half hour.

That's what happened in Calgary, Alberta, Canada Saturday evening, when a storm, severe even by their standards, surely caused millions of dollars in damage. The main show with this event was just an incredible artillary battery of hail.

The area around Calgary, Canada is no stranger to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

It's kind of a northern version of Denver, where severe storms develop along the Front Range of the Rockies when winds blow uphill from the east, giving a boost to the storms.

Calgary's topography is similar, so they can have destructive storms, too.

But this was one for the record books. Also the location this time was bad.  There are wide open plains in much of Alberta, and these storms often hit sparsely populated areas, so there's no great harm.

Calgary, however, has a population of 1.3 million, so there's plenty of homes, businesses, cars and other property that hail and flooding can target, if the storms roll over the city and not a few miles out into the Plains.

One of the many homes damaged by hail Saturday in Calgary, Canada.
Photo by Khalid Mahmood 

Which is what happened Saturday.  Not all the city was wrecked, but a good chunk of the northeastern part of Calgary was certainly smashed.

The wind driven hail, some golf ball sized or even tennis ball sized, came down in such density and force that it destroyed a huge number of cars, ripped the siding off countless homes and shattered many windows in some neighborhoods.

We don't have an estimate in the amount of damage yet.

Nearly 2 inches of rain mixed with the hail came down in just one hour, adding some damaging flash flooding to the hail wreckage.

Here are some videos from Calgary

This compilation shows a remarkable shot of large hailstones pounding cars in a badly flooded parking lot:



Aftermath video shows severe damage to siding and windows in a residential neighborhood:



More damage and wrecked plants and gardens in Calgary:

Stupid People Who Drive With Snow On Windshield

The driver of this car caused a collision in Montreal.
Hmm. Wonder why?

One day about a week ago, I was driving along after one of Vermont's frequent bouts with mixed precipitation this winter.

I had been unable to scrape the frozen snow off the roof of my truck before I left home. It was really stuck on there. In hindsight, I probably should have tried harder to get that stuff off the truck roof.

By the time I got to Winooski, the snow and ice had started to melt. I stopped at a light on a downward sloping hill and all that snow and ice came down on the windshield.  It was too much for the windshield wipers to handle.  

So, I did what I thought everyone else would have done: I put on my hazard lights, pulled over to the side of the street, got out of the truck and cleaned all the ice of my windshield, then continued on my way.

Apparently, not everybody does that. For proof, check out two of the videos below, and a third from a person who definitely was from Canada, let me tell ya.

 I have seen lots of people driving around with snow on windshields, back windows, you name it. Clean the damn snow off so you don't crash into me and others, you morons!

 The Weather Channel just featured somebody causing a crash because they had an experience similar to me:  Snow had fallen on their windshield, but in their case, they kept going.

Here's that video. I hope the person who caused the crash feels like a real idiot:



And check out this video from last winter in Toronto:



Now, here's a video of somebody who DID make the effort to remove snow from the windshield.  This was in Vancouver, Canada, and he used a very Canadian way to do the job. Look what he's using to get the snow off the car:

Floods, Snow, Stupidity, More: Recent Wild Weather Videos

Aftermath of severe floods and mudslides in Brazil.
See video in this post. 

As I always say, pretty much everybody has a camera in their pocket, so we get all kinds of new perspectives on everything, including extreme weather.

As I do from time to time, I highlight some of these videos of wild weather going on in the world currently.  

The first one is part of a tragedy.  Massive floods and mudslides have hit parts of Brazil, killing at least 50 people. This video is very much reminiscent of the Ellicott City, Maryland flash flood videos of 2016 and 2018 in which people are trapped in a restaurant as a torrent sweeps cars and pretty much everything else away through the downtown.

This one is in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil:


Here's a flash flood hitting Narok, Kenya this past week. Would you cross this bridge in this weather?



St. John's Newfoundland has largely recovered from that massive blizzard earlier this month, but as you can imagine, there's still LOTS of snow on the ground.

Let's take a trip to the St. John's Costco, via this web cam video to pick up supplies. The middle segment of the video is something. Like driving at the bottom of a canyon:



The opposite end of Canada has gotten an oddly huge amount of snow, too.  Not nearly as much as Newfoundland, but for the Vancouver, Canada area, it's incredible. They've had about 14 inches of snow this month, compared to a normal of about four inches.

The snow there typically melts fast and doesn't stick around, but this time, it did. The next clip is from the famous Chilliwack, British Columbia security camera, which seems to catch an incredible number of odd happenings.

This clip is of all the people there who can't drive in the snow. And you thought it was bad here in Vermont! Watch:

More On Dorian: Canada Is Next Target, Believe It Or Not

The western eyewall of Hurricane Dorian was brushing the Outer Banks of North Carolina this morning.

Complete destruction in the Bahamas from Hurricane Dorian.
Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images.

It's unclear whether the eye of Dorian will actually hit land, but conditions were still really rough out there this morning. One town reported a gust of 96 mph.

The National Hurricane Center reported at 7 a.m. Orcacoke, North Carolina had a sustained wind of 69 mph with gusts to 89 mph. 

So more damage is certainly occurring out there on the Outer Banks.

As if Dorian needed to cause more damage.

Four United States deaths have been reported with Dorian. The Associated Press said those deaths were attributed to falls or electrocution as people prepared for the storm. The death toll in Bermuda rose to 30, and will go higher. Survivors have told harrowing stories of people swept away and of houses disintegrating with families inside.

Dorian is now accelerating toward the northeast.  The hurricane, as we know, was notably slow moving, even stalling over the northern Bahamas for a day.

Once hurricanes get as far north as Dorian is now - near North Carolina - mid-latitude westerlies usually pick them up and sweep them northeastward very, very quickly. This will happen with Dorian.

When hurricanes accelerate northward like this, their wind fields expand. Dorian will pass well east of New England, but with its larger size, it will come close enough to prompt a tropical storm warning for Cape Cod and the islands. Winds there could gust to 60 mph late tonight and early Saturday

Dorian looks like it's also going to hit Nova Scotia, Canada on Saturday, and a hurricane warning is in effect there. Strong winds and heavy rain are sure to cause quite a bit of damage in the Canadian province. Environment Canada says winds could reach hurricane force and rainfall might reach six inches.

By tomorrow, Dorian will begin to lose its tropical characteristics, but will still be a powerful storm as it hits Newfoundland on Sunday.

Here in Vermont, we don't expect any effects from Dorian other than clouds and a chance of a few showers east.

Dorian will help drive a couple of cold fronts southward through us, so expect some showers, especially Saturday night with these cold fronts and some cooler than normal weather through at least Monday.

Yet Another Smoke Attack In New England As Canada Burns Once Again

A hazy sunset caused by Canadian forest fires, as seen
from St. Albans last summer. Haze and smoke attacks
in Vermon from Canadian fires seem to be on the
uptick in recent uears. 

The brilliant blue skies we enjoyed here in Vermont Sunday and Monday, and on into Tuesday morning faded into a sickly greyish color Tuesday afternoon as smoke from Canadian wildfires billowed high overhead.

The haze is still there this morning, at least to an extent, and could get worse again this afternoon.

Most of the smoke is high overhead, but you might have noticed the horizontal view Tuesday afternoon got a bit hazy, too. That was basically fallout - tiny smoke particles drifting back to Earth. That's how these smoke plumes eventually dissipate.

The trouble is the fires keep burning, so smoke keeps going up, and it perpetuates itself.

These tiny particles in the haze aren't exactly healthy to breathe. There wasn't enough haze and pollution yesterday in Vermont to cause any particular health risks. Today, it's possible that enough smoke could reach the surface to bother people with underlying health risks, so we should keep an eye on that.

You might even smell smoke at times today. Don't worry, it's not your house burning. Or maybe worry, because Canada is burning.

Obviously not all of it.  Extensive fires in Ontario have led to widespread smoke in the Midwest and eastern United States.  Other fires in western Alaska are choking that region in smoke as well.

In this air quality forecast for today from the EPA, the
air won't exactly be clean. Areas in yellow have moderate
amounts of particulates. Though not at super hazardous
levels, people with underlying health issues might
want to avoid overexerting outdoors today.
Especially since it will also be very warm.

Extreme dryness, warm air and severe thunderstorms with lots of dry lightning have sparked most of those large Canadian wildfires.

It does seem these "smoke attacks" here in Vermont and the rest of the United States are getting more frequent.

Which makes sense, since Canadian and western United States wildfires have trended upward in size and intensity in recent years.

 Climate change might well be influencing this. In Canada, warmer weather allows things to dry out earlier in the spring, extending the wildfire season.

Hotter, drier weather than in the past and lots of lightning strikes in the summer are fueling these fires.

For selfish reason, that's a shame. We often get breaks in summer heat and humidity via cold fronts from Canada, which gives us the perfect blue skies like we saw this past Sunday.

But now, Canada seems to give us smoke and haze, too. I want the blue sky back.

What Is It About Ottawa, Canada And Tornadoes Lately?

Tornado around Orleans, Ontario on Sunday. 

Last September, a huge tornado struck the Ottawa, Canada area injuring 25 people, destroying dozens of homes and damaging hundreds of other houses, businesses and apartment buildings

That seemed like a rare event in Ottawa and for the Ontario/Quebec border in general.

Then, yesterday, yet another damaging tornado hit the Ottawa area. This one struck in and around the community of Orleans, a little east of Ottawa. It also came pretty close to the path the one last year took, when it caused extensive damage in Gatineau.  

According to the Ottawa Citizen:

"Environment Canada said late Sunday that preliminary information indicates the tornado was a Category EF-1 and may have been on the ground for more than 30 minutes."

There were no reported injuries, but there was plenty of damage. Videos of the storm and its aftermath are below.

In some neighborhoods, roofs were damaged, windows blew out and scores of trees came down.

Lots of video showed a bright white funnel cloud along the dark tail end of a severe thunderstorm, illuminated by a low angle sun.

Ottawa is just a three and a half hour drive from Burlington, Vermont, but just like the September outbreak, Vermont suffered little if any damage.  There were downpours and thunderstorms in the Green Mountain State, but I've heard no reports of severe thunderstorm.

The severe thunderstorms that produced Sunday's Ottawa area tornadoes moved east toward Montreal but weakened dramatically as they crossed southern Quebec.

Here's a view of the tornado approaching a motorist on a bridge near Orleans. At the last second, the motorist zooms out of the way:



Another view of the tornado pulling water from a lake or river:



And here's the narrow, sun-lit tornado pulling apart part of an apartment house roof:

Extreme Flooding Affecting Southeastern Canada

Flood evacuations in Sainte-Marie, Quebec. Photo
by Jacques Boissnot

Here in Vermont, officials are sorting it out with FEMA on the matter of getting federal assistance for at least $2 million in flood damage from a mid-April storm that brought snow melt and high water to much of the state.

Lake Champlain continues to flood, hovering just under 101 feet above sea level. That's very nearly a foot above flood stage. With more rain in the forecast, the Lake Champlain flooding won't go away any time soon. 

North of the border, though, things are much worse, much more dire. Severe flooding is wrecking communities near Ontario, in much of Quebec, including the Montreal metro area and in New Brunswick.

Here's just one sample, as reported by CBC:

"The most dire situation is in Sainte-Marthe-sur-le-Lac, a suburb west of Montreal that was inundated Saturday night after the Lake of Two Mountains burst through a natural dike.

More than 5,000 residents were forced to grab what they could and flee as waist-high water filled their streets and homes. Another 1,500 people were evacuated from their homes the following day."

At least 9,000 people in Quebec have been evacuated from their homes due to the flooding.

The Ottawa River between Quebec and Ontario is nearing a record high level set just two years ago. People have filled more than a million sandbags to protect neighborhoods in Ottawa and Gatineau, Quebec. Still, some neighborhoods in both communities are under water.

Gatineau has had terrible experiences with weather lately. Last September, a rare, strong tornado swept through Gatineau, injuring six people and damaging or destroying nearly 1,700 homes.

CBC also had this interesting factoid about weather extremes in Canada so far in 2019:

"The record flooding is expected to push losses for Canadian homeowners from extreme weather to more than $1 billion just four months into this year. The figure was close to $2 billion for all of 2018."

Though floodwaters are receding a bit from flooding along the St. Johns River in New Brunswick, more rain is forecast in saturated southeastern Canada this week.

Early Winter In Western Canada, Northern U.S. Rockies

Too early? A snowy, very difficult commute in Calgary Canada this
morning. Photo via @mookalicious on Twitter.   

In early October here in Vermont, we start to look toward the mountain peaks for the first few dustings of snow.

There's nothing like that this year, and no snow on the summits is in the forecast for the foreseeable future.

Sure, it's chilly and wet today, but it's surely not snowy.  The forecast calls for near to above normal temperatures for at least the next week.

It might even get almost summery for a time next week. There's a chance it could hit 80 degrees i Vermont then. We'll see.

But it's fall. If it's warm in one place, it has to be chilly in another. Sure enough, western Canada and the northern Rockies fit that wintry bill.

Actually, while we roasted in September,  most of Canada was unusually chilly. Only the southeastern part of that country was warm. Yellowknife, in northwestern Alaska, had its coldest September on record and Calgary had its chilliest September since 1985.

Overnight, four to eight inches of snow, with locally higher amounts, really screwed up the morning commute in Calgary. I don't know about you, but I'm not quite ready for a morning like that yet. Let's wait until after Thanksgiving here in Vermont, at least.

The cold air and snow has been starting to bleed across the Canadian border into places like Montana.  In Billings, 1.4 inches of snow came down Sunday. Yes, it was still September. Today, in the high elevations around Glacier National Park, winter storm warnings are up as some areas in the peaks will get more than 18 inches of snow.

If anything, this winter pattern will intensify out west next week. It's possible a wide area of the northern Rockies and the western Dakotas could get quite a bit of snow. 

It's a little early for that, but not unheard of in that part of the country.

Here in the Northeast, a northward bulge in the jet stream will keep us protected from any real snow, at least through the middle of the month. It's possible the highest peaks could get a little rime ice or flurries in that time, but there will be no snowflakes in the valleys, like we can get this time of year.

Don't worry, winter will come and some of us will probably regret it.

Autumn Rains Begin To Chip Away At Drought; Severe Threat Wednesday

Some spots in the yellow area of this map could get severe thunderstorms
on Wednesday. The principal risk from these storms is strong,
straight line winds. 

UPDATE 1:30 p.m. Tuesday:

Though forecasts can still change and go the other way, as of early this afternoon, the threat of severe weather here in Vermont tomorrow seems to be increasing, at least according to the latest forecasts.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center as of early this afternoon is still targeting the area you see on the map for at least a slight chance of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

However, depending on what new data between now and tomorrow morning read, the Storm Prediction Center might upgrade the risk level to "Enhanced" for eastern New York and Vermont.

The scale of risk from the SPC is marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high.  Enhanced means more than just one or two storms. There may be a fair number of severe weather reports in such a region. We'll see how that sugars off.

Worse, there are somewhat increased signs that rotating thunderstorms could get going in the region, especially, perhaps in the Champlain Valley.  By the way, not all rotating thunderstorms produce tornadoes. Most don't. But if a storm rotates, you have to watch it carefully because it does have some potential of creating a twister.

In the Champlain Valley, it's possible a supercell thunderstorm or two could get going ahead of the main line of storms. That would mean a slight tornado risk. Also, some storms along the main line of bad weather could create some spin ups.

This forecast model, called teh HREF depicts rotating
thunderstorms in norther Vermont Wednesday (those
are the grey, blue and green streaks circled) While
this might or might not happen, rotating
thunderstorms can sometimes, but certainly not
always, spin up a tornado.

One forecast model, called the HREF, depicts rotating thunderstorms - with the possibility of a tornado - Wednesday afternoon. Also, given the overall wind direction, the orientation of the Champlain Valley could locally increase the spin of some storms.

This is just one of many forecast models. Don't hang your hat on that one. Meteorologists will be looking at a slew of computer and human forecast to determine what risk we have tomorrow, if any.

Besides, there are factors that argue against storms strong enough to produce a tornado.
There is some question as to whether enough instability will be present to create such a scenario.

All this isn't meant to be a scare tactic. The chance of a tornado tomorrow is still very low. Even if a tornado forms, 99 percent of us wouldn't get hit by it. The main threat from any thunderstorm tomorrow would be damaging straight line winds. Which can be almost as bad as a tornado, really.

All I'm suggesting is you should keep a particular eye on the weather Wednesday afternoon and evening and be prepared to get inside really quickly if threatening weather approaches. This ain't Oklahoma, so we're not all going to blow away tomorrow.

The number of tornadoes nationwide has been low this year. However, in the Northeast, tornadoes have been unusually frequent in 2018. Still, no tornadoes have been reported in Vermont this year. Which is a good thing. I had better stay that way but like I say, eye on the sky, please.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

We're off to a good start with our shift into autumn weather here in Vermont. We need to get rid of a drought hanging around, and we're chipping away at it.

Last Friday, we had a good soaking in northern Vermont for the first time in ages. We had to put up with a lot of wind and fallen tree branches, but it was worth it.

Today and tomorrow, we face more wind, but also more rain, which is great. The possibility of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday isn't so great, but we'll get through it.

The summertime pattern that featured near constant, flooding downpours from New Jersey to Virginia, but high heat and drought up her in the North Country, has totally broken down, finally.

Autumn can very often be a battleground between the lingering heat of summer to the south, and the building winter chill up north. Lately, that battle ground is running from the Midwest, through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

When you are in this seasonal battleground, chances are high you will get storminess and precipitation.

The latest wet, welcome slap is giving us our chilly, rainy I-want-to-hibernate Vermont weather today. It's a warm front, but of course it won't get warm until the front passes by. The warm front is lifting air ahead of it like a snowplow would push a snowbank up and ahead of it.

Rising air like this means rain, which is why we're getting this nice, steady rain today. Those of you in the Northeast Kingdom who have not seen the rain will get it soon.

The warm front will pass by tonight, and the showers will become lighter and scattered. Overnight will actually be warmer than this afternoon because of the passing of this front.

On Wednesday, we'll get into a zone of warm, humid air. Don't worry, it won't be like the oppressive, high heat we so often experienced in the summer. Instead, temperatures will be well into the 70s, and you'll definitely work up a sweat with any physical activity outdoors. It will be muggy.

Much like last Friday,a cold front will be approaching from the west. Last Friday's cold front caused mayhem in Ontario and Quebec, with an outbreak of severe weather and strong tornadoes. Those storms last Friday weakened dramatically by the time they got to Vermont. It was night, so there was no sun to destabilize the air.

This time, tomorrow, the timing of the cold front is such that Vermont could be in zone of maximum strength thunderstorms.  Again, don't worry. Tomorrow's storms will not be nearly as bad as those that struck Ontario and Quebec last Friday.

Still, we are at risk of some severe thunderstorms. Some sun will probably break out here and there, helping to destabilize the atmosphere. Strong winds will be blowing high above us. The speed and direction of these winds will shift depending upon how high above the earths' surface you are.

That's a recipe for severe thunderstorms.

There's still no guarantee the severe storms over Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast will develop. Things have to come together just right. If severe storms DO develop, not everybody will get them.

However, some of us could easily face the prospect of strong, damaging winds with a few of the thunderstorms that pass over Vermont Wednesday afternoon and evening.

At this point, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is thinking the greatest potential for damaging winds in any thunderstorms would be across eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York and western New England. I do expect some adjustments to this forecast. There are always changes to predictions when there's a dynamic situation such as this.

Because of changing wind directions with height, there is a very, very remote chance of a brief tornado, but definitely don't count on that. The principal risk from the storms will be strong, straight line winds in a few areas.

My advice for you: Do whatever you planned to do tomorrow, unless it involved boating on the lake or hiking in the mountains. I'd postpone that for a day. For everybody else, just keep one ear on your weather radio or however else you get weather warnings.

If your area is one of the lucky ones to fall under a severe thunderstorm warning, do the usual precautions: Get indoors, and stay away from the windows until the storms pass.

Looking ahead, we remain in the weather battleground. That means storms will pass by fairly close to us, repeatedly swinging warm and cold fronts over us. Things will move right along, so rainfall in any one of these episodes won't be particularly heavy, and won't last all that long.

Which is OK. You don't want the rain all at once. The ground will gradually get wetter with each passing weather front, and that's fine by me.

Got Snow? Summer Ends As Winter Wonderland In Parts Of Canada

Snow in Canada on the last dau of
summer. Photo via Twitter @adicsask  

By this time of year, snow enthusiasts here in Vermont are looking desperately for the first hints of mountain snow, even though ski areas won't open until October at the extreme earliest. Most of them open in November.

There's not much like that yet to whet people's snow appetite here in Vermont. There was some rime ice atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire Saturday, and I thought I spotted a bit of white at the tippy top of Whiteface Mountain, New York yesterday, but that's about it.

The snow will get here soon enough. If you're really that desperate for snow, you should have headed to Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada on Friday, the last full day of summer.

It was a summertime winter wonderland up in that neck of the woods. Most of us shudder at that idea, but for those of you out there who are into this kind of thing, knock yourself out.

Up to six inches of snow fell on parts of Saskatchewan on Friday. About an inch fell on the  Saskatoon,  the largest city in the province, CBC reported.

The snow spread into western Manitoba, causing quite a few power outages there, says the CBC.

The snow was earlier than usual in that neck of the woods, but not unprecedented. But it did have people groaning about their short summers made shorter by this end of summer snow.

The cold was depressing for people up there, too. Normally, high temperatures there are in the low 60s - not warm, but OK. But afternoon readings only got into the 30s. Temperatures will warm up a bit over the next few days.

The snow has been more than depressing for farmers in northwestern Saskatchewan. It could ruin them, The Weather Network says. Farmers are way behind in harvesting, and for awhile anyway, those crops were under snow.

Rain, cold temperatures, thick smoke from wildfires further to the west and now snow have made things a nightmare for those trying to harvest crops. So far, only 17 percent of crops in northwestern Saskatchewan have been harvested, reports The Weather Network. 

Environment Canada is forecasting continued cold weather, but thankfully drier conditions, over the next week.

Back here in Vermont, there's no snow in the forecast yet. It can snow in the mountains this time of year, but at least for the next week or more, nada.

Keep those skis and snowboards in the closet for now. It probably wouldn't hurt to start shopping for season passes, though, unless you've done so already.

Heat Worldwide: Weather Off The Rails - Continued

People flee into the sea in Greece
as wildfires bear down on them
this week. 

It's been a busy month across the Northern Hemisphere as records keep falling in so many disparate locations.

Plus, throw in deadly wildfires, devastating flash floods, incredible hail accumulations, and a few tornadoes to make the whole mess complete, and you've got quite a July to report.

I've already described some of the very, very weird weather over the past month - the deadly Quebec heat wave that killed dozens of people, the Siberian heat wave, the extreme floods in Japan, the Midwest tornadoes, it goes on and on.

There's so many new extremes being reported over the past several days that I can't keep up. And I'll get to the weather weirdness here in Vermont later in this post.

You probably have already heard of the tragic wildfire in Greece, the one that roared through a coastal resort town and killed at least 74 people.

People had to flee on foot to the ocean ahead of the fast-advancing flames and many people didn't make it. Or, they got trapped on a cliff overlooking the sea and the blaze overtook them.

It's too horrible to even think about.

JAPAN ROASTS

Meanwhile, heat waves are still breaking records all over the world. Japan, devastated by that flood earlier this month that I mentioned, is having its worst heat wave on record.

As Dr. Jeff Masters noted in his indispensable Category 6 blog, the city of Kumagaya, Japan, about 40 miles northwest of Tokyo, reached 106 degrees on Monday, establishing the record for the hottest temperature on record anywhere in Japan.

Records there go back to at least the late 1800s.

People trying to beat the heat this week near Tokyo, Japan.
Photo by Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

Until this month, the all time record high temperature for Kyoto, Japan was 101, set in 2014. Starting on July 14, six out of seven days beat that previous 101 degree reord high, peaking at 103.6 on July 19, tying Kyoto's all time record high for any month, Masters tells us. 

Needless to say, the heat wave is killing scores of people in Japan and South Korea. Several cities in both North and South Korea set all-time record high temperatures.

In Japan, the good news is the heat wave will ease within the next few days. The bads news is that's because a typhoon is headed their way. Japan can't catch a break.

FIERY SCANDINAVIA

Meanwhile, Scandanavia, including areas north of the Arctic Circle of all places, have also been contending with record heat lately.

All time record highs have been set at 14 locations in Norway, ten places in Finland and 3 towns in Sweden.

Large forest fires in Sweden this week. Photo by Maja Muslin/AFP/
Getty Images

Rare 90 degree heat has been seen north of the Arctic Circle. A village in northern Sweden just north of the Arcrtic Circle of 90.5 degrees, said climatologist Maximiliano Hererra, as reported by the Weather Channel.

It was also 90 degrees in Lapland, which we associate with winter reindeer. At least I do.

The result of all this heat is the northern fir tree forests in Scandanavia are on fire, big time.  Dozens of dangerous wildfires are burning across the region.

The bad news is it looks like intense heat will rebuild across most of western Europe, including Scandanavia, over the next few days. Those wildfires will only get worse.

NORTH AMERICA HEAT

Here in the United States, the parts of the Southwest from Texas westward  continue to bake in a relentless heat wave.

On July 23, Waco, Texas broke its all time record high temperature when it reached 114 degrees, breaking the old record of 112 set on August 12, 1969. Record high temperatures were reported across much of Texas earlier this week.

Thermal, California lived up to its name this week when it reached a record high of 122 degrees two days in a row. That's the first time on record Thermal had two consecutive days so hot.

Normally cool Seattle had three day in a row this week with 90 degree heat. This will also be onlu the fifth July in Seattle with five days that hit 90 degrees. It was 94 degrees or hotter for four days in a row in Portland, Oregon.

Way up in northern Canada - here we go with Arctic heat again, it was near 90 degrees this week in the Northwest Territories and the Yukon. Normally frigid Dawson, Yukon was 88 degrees.

Atlantic Canada shared in northern New England's oppressive humidity this week. Heat advisories were up as overnight temperatures in the region were at record highs.

Here in Vermont, Burlington is on track to possibly have its hottest month on record. It depends on what the closing days of the month do. (The next few days are going to be somewhat cooler than they recently have been. It has been 90 degrees ten times this month, tying the record for the second highest number of such days. (There were 11 days in the 90s in July, 1949.)

This post is statistics heavy. Here, I just wanted to prove that this heat is everywhere this summer.

I purposely didn't get into why all these heat records are being broken, and what this means for you and me. That deserves a separate poset, which I will get to in the coming days.  Lots of interesting science and economics associated with this.

Floods, Severe Weather, Temperature Swings: It's Spring

Flooding in Frederickton, New Brunswick. Photo by Andre
Vaughn/Canadian Press

Floods in Canada. Severe weather in the middle of the United States. Wild temperature swings and inclement weather here in Vermont.

It must be spring.

Most people do look forward to spring, with its warming temperatures and flowers and greening grass and trees.

It is a volatile time of year in the weather department, though, and this year is certainly proving the case. There's all kinds of weather to talk about.

CANADA FLOODS

It's been rainy enough here in Vermont to cause some minor flooding, including along the Connecticut River in the Northeast Kingdom.

It's been even worse to the north, though, with many areas of Canada, including Quebec, New Brunswick, Alberta and British Columbia all experiencing spring floods.

The CBC says many roads in New Brunswick have been washed out near Frederickton and St. John. The St. John River is the highest it has been in a decade at least. Video shows people being taken from flooded houses in New Brunswick.

Flooding in Quebec this weekend. Photo by Marc Antoine Lavoie, CBC

In Quebec, flooding is widespread in the Eastern Townships and near Quebec City. Some homes are flooded, and dozens of roads are closed. More rain is anticipated in the region this week.

The mountains of British Columbia had a record high snow pack earlier this spring, and now it's quite warm and rainy in the region, so the western Canadian province is now being plagued by flooding and mudslides.

SEVERE WEATHER 

There were several reports of large hail and damaging winds, mostly in Nebraska from severe thunderstorms yesterday. That was the opening salvo of a severe weather outbreak in the middle of the country that will intensify today.

It looks like the focus of the severe storms and possible tornadoes today will be in Kansas, eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Storms there will probably develop explosively later today, and there's even the risk of a strong tornado or two.  

Areas in the middle of the country (shaded yellow and orange)
are at risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes today.

On Wednesday, the threat will cover a broad area from Texas to northern Illinois, with the principal risk area centered on Oklahoma.

One more day of severe weather is likely Thursday from Texas to the lower Great Lakes, with Missouri seeming to be in the center of it. In a sign of spring for us, the threat of severe storms Thursday extends all the way up  here to southern Vermont, though the threat of severe weather in New England is marginal at best.

VERMONT VOLATILITY, TOO

It was still damp and drizzly in Vermont early this Tuesday morning, but things are still likely to sharply improve by afternoon. The sun will break out and temperatures will get into the 60s.

In a sharp departure from the snows of Monday morning, readings in parts of Vermont and surrounding areas could easily reach 80 degrees on Wednesday as strengthening southwest winds pump warm air toward us.

If it does make it to 80 degrees in Burlington tomorrow, it'll be the first time that's happened since October 8, 2017.

The weather will become increasingly iffy if you don't like rain beginning later Wednesday. A few thunderstorms might break out over northern New York later in the day.

Thursday and Friday, the amount of precipitable water in the air - how humid it is and how much potential there is for heavy rain, will rise to near record levels for this time of year over the region. It will feel humid for sure.

All that water expected to be in the air Thursday and Friday doesn't guarantee heavy rain, but it definitely increases the odds of it. One disturbance will come through sometimes Thursday. It's a little unclear at this point what part of Vermont and the rest of the North Country it will focus on, but it does have the potential to dump some downpours, with a few areas perhaps getting up to an inch of rain.

A more robust system is due Friday, and I'm sure we'll be talking about more downpours then. It's too soon to say whether these rains Thursday and Friday will be enough to cause any flooding on Vermont's rivers. But it looks like those rains will be enough to push Lake Champlain toward its 100 foot flood stage. 

Things are looking drier for the upcoming weekend, cross your fingers.

TV Meteorologist Rick Rolled By The Original Rick Roller

Canadian meteorologist Brandon Gonez, left, seemed delighted to be Rick
Rolled on air. It helped that the actual Rick Astley came on set 

A "Rick Roll" is one of the oldest, and many would say most obnoxious internet memes.

For the uninitiated, getting Rick Rolled is when somebody sends you a link saying you MUST watch it because it's so incredible.

Then you open the link and instead of something you'd really go wow about, you get the music video of Rick Astley performing his 1987 hit "Never Gonna Give You Up."

So it was recently on a recent morning that meteorologist Brandon Gonez was going over the rather inclement weather that was plaguing Ontario and Quebec when the familiar strains of "Never Gonna Give You Up starting playing.

Even better: The actual, real live Rick Astley came on to the set to do a meteorological in person Rick Roll

So much for the lousy Canadian weather.  Gonez really did seem to appreciate the Rick Roll

Here's the clip:

Always Trying To Find Out Who's Got It Worse

A snow drift in New Brunswick, Canada last week. Via
Ashley Ricard, Facebook

When I'm discouraged by weather I don't like, I perversely find places where conditions are even worse, just to console myself.

One place I found was Bathurst, New Brunswick, Canada. As you know, I've been whining about the deep mid-March snowcover from the recent nor'easters and the current January-like chill.

New Brunswick has also been dealing with the same nor'easters, and the snow drifts are worse, much worse than around here.

A woman named Ashley Ricard has been posting photos of her snow-buried neighborhood, and houses are nearly buried. A couple of her photos are in this post.

A New Brunswick, Canada house buried in snow. Via
Gail Harding/CBC

Like us here in Vermont, it's cold in New Brunswick, so most of the snow won't go anytime soon.

There have been reports of a couple buildings collapsing under the weight of the snow, and travel is still difficult in some spots in southeastern Canada because of the snow.

Speaking of nor'easters, we're still watching one for mid to late week. Current forecasts are still insisting the next one will have little or no impact on Vermont, but I'm still not counting it out.

The beginnings of this next storm swept across Texas Sunday, causing a couple of tornadoes, strong winds and numerous reports of giant hail, some the size of baseballs. (Once you start getting into March, storm systems are increasingly likely to bring severe weather to parts of the nation.)

Today, the storm will bring severe weather to parts of the south, particularly Alabama and Tennesee, where damaging tornadoes are possible. 

The storm is still expected to head off the North Carolina coast. Some computer models continue to nudge the projected path of this next nor'easter a little closer to the coast. But it still - at this point at least - looks like it will pass relatively far off the New England coast Wednesday and Thursday.

Southeastern New England still looks like it will get a little snow and wind from this. It looks like the New York City area, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland, including the Washington DC area, look to be in play for some snow out of this as well.

I expect it will throw some clouds back over Vermont. If the projected path holds, the Green Mountain State will get little if any snow out of this. If the storm track ends up being another 100 miles to the northwest than current projections, then it's -- ugh.

Meanwhile, it remains frigid. Widespread below zero temperatures were reported across the North Country this morning, though readings were a few degrees warmer than Sunday morning.

Still, I also always like to look for signs of hope during weather I don't like. The March sun angle is high, and temperature, while remaining well below normal, will gradually creep up a bit each day through Wednesday.

I noticed yesterday when I was in Rutland, Vermont, where the snow cover is thinner than it is up here in St. Albans, the sun was able to open up a few bare patches on steep south and west facing slopes. Not a pretty look, but a sign that the snow will want to try to melt. Some day, at least.

Clear And Cold, But Ice Jam Flooding Vermont, Northeast Still Big Problem

The Missisquoi River in Swanton, Vermont was re-freezing
Sunday afternoon, adding more ice to an already huge and
destructive ice jam. 

Today has been one of the glorious bluebird winter days here in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast.  

Granted, it's pretty cold, with high temperatures in my area in northern Vermont only in the single digits. But there's fresh white powder on the ground, the sky is a deep winter blue. Winds are light, all in all, a very nice winter day.

But for some in Vermont and elsewhere in the Northeast, and in parts of Atlantic Canada, is another day of continuing disaster.

Those ice jams that formed with the mega thaw on Friday, are still there, and in some cases getting worse as rivers re-freeze and new ice adds to the jam.

Here in Vermont, the worst of it continues to be around the towns of Johnson and Swanton, where people are still evacuated. New evacuations are possible around Swanton, as the situation, if anything grows worse along the Missisquoi River there.

Route 78 in Swanton, a major truck route between Vermont and New York just south of the Canadian border, remains closed.  Several houses are still evacuated, and nobody has been able to get in to evaluate the extent of the damage.

A huge ice jam along the Missisquoi River in Swanton, Vermont
was diverting water into this building Sunday afternoon.

I was in Swanton this afternoon, and it appears things might be getting worse. The ice jam is stuck in place.

I'm guessing it's in part because the Missisquoi drains into Lake Champlain. Normally, the ice chunks would flow into the lake, but that part of Lake Champlain is frozen. There's nowhere for the ice to go.

Meanwhile, as noted, it's cold. I could see near downtown Swanton new ice forming on the river, floating down stream then becoming stuck in an ever expanding field of ice.

Granted, this new ice isn't thick or strong like some of the big chunks stuck in the main jam, but this new ice is clearly not helping.

Sunday, the new ice was helping to back up water along Foundry Street in Swanton, and some houses there might need to be evacuated.

Johnson, Vermont is still dealing with ice jam and flooding damage, too. Several buildings were damaged. Water inside the local supermarket was at least knee deep.

In addition to Vermont, ice jams and flooding prompted evacuations this weekend in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

The storm that caused the heavy rain, record warmth and flooding in New England before the Arctic blast arrived Saturday moved into Atlantic Canada.

They had the same problems up there, perhaps even worse than in the states. Heavy rain, record high temperatures and rapid melting of a deep snow pack caused destructive flooding in New Brunswick and Newfoundland.

For most of the region, there's no big huge storms in the near future. That's the way it looks now. Something still might get going later this week. If it does, it would affect eastern New England and, again, the Atlantic Provinces of Canada.

Light snow might affect Vermont, but after the wild weather of the past week, it won't be such a big deal.

The Frigid Blast Has Arrived; Snow, Blowing Snow, Too, But Hope On Horizon?

The scene in Boston during storm surge
flooding on Thursday. 

The epic nor'easter from yesterday has pulled away into Atlantic Canada, but here in Vermont, we're still going to have that hangover of snow, lots of blowing snow, wind, and frigid temperatures.

We've been advertising this for days, of course, and now it's here. Moisture wrapping around from the Atlantic Ocean down toward us will keep the snow falling today, especially in the north and mountains.

The snow won't be all that heavy, but it will continue to pile up.  Which means this storm is overachieving in northern Vermont. The Champlain Valley can expect storm totals in the six to nine inch range, with most of northern Vermont getting a grand total of six to 12 inches out of this. A moderate size snowfall, yes. But that wind and cold!

It's a really fluffy snow, so gusts to 40 mph or even more will really whip that stuff around. It's going to be tough driving to work or school or wherever today with all the snow, black ice, drifting snow, poor visibility in blowing snow and those low temperatures.  A lot of schools will close or have delayed openings today anyway.

But think about it: We're almost through this long, nasty cold spell, which began on Christmas. Seems like ages ago. Yes, there's wind chill warnings here in Vermont through Saturday night for air that will feel like it's 40 below or so.

Yes, the wind and blowing snow are miserable. And temperatures still expected in the 20s to low 30s below zero Sunday morning are nothing to embrace, that's for sure.

The end of this cold siege is at hand, however. Sunday afternoon will still be quite chilly, but not nearly as bad. By Monday and Tuesday, practically all will be forgotten as temperatures rise to the 20s to around 30. There might be a little snow those days, but we can handle that.

Traffic backed up on the Arctic wasteland, namely Interstate
89 in Milton, Vermont this morning. Lots of black ice.

Forecasting models have also pretty much abandoned the idea of another Arctic blast for the middle of next week. YAY!!!  It's even quite possible a January thaw of sorts could come in for a couple days toward the end of next week.

Meanwhile, they're picking up the pieces in places like Massachusetts and Maine, where this intense nor'easter caused a lot of storm surge flooding along the coast on Thursday.

At least 75 homes in Suffolk County, Massachusetts had water on their first floors. Water surged onto the streets of downtown Boston.

Other homes flooded on Cape Cod. Throughout the coastline, motorists were caught by surprise by the flooding, and had to be rescued. Quite the memorable storm to say the least. You can see videos of it all at the bottom of this post.

The Weather Channel said more than 4,000 airline flights were canceled on Thursday, and it will take awhile to work through that backlog.

In Canada, up to 100,000 residents lost power in the places like Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Deep snow engulfed New Brunswick, while heavy rain, hurricane force wind gusts and destructive storm surges assailed Halifax. On coastal location in Nova Scotia reported a wind gust of 105 mph. It gusted to 72 mph in Halifax.

As of this morning the intense cold that's beginning to affect us here in Vermont is also surging into the Maritime Provinces in Canada.

The storm might have also set a record, at least for the western Atlantic. To qualify for the now-famous "bomb" status, the storm had to get stronger by 24 millibars (an air pressure measurement) within 24 hours. Preliminary estimates indicate the storm strengthened by 59 millibars within 24 hours.

At least we got through it all. So far anyway.

Below are some videos from the Massachusetts coastal storm surge yesterday:

Storm surge in Marshfield, Mass:



Chaos in the Seaport district of Boston:

Thursday Evening Update On Our Huge Nor'easter

Today's massive, historic and deadly nor'easter is a thing of
beauty if you look at it via a satellite image from GOES-16.
I'm amazed by how vast an area it covered.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see. 

Here where I am in St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont, things aren't nearly as chaotic as they have been today along the East Coast, especially New England.  

As of 4:30 p.m., we've received just 1.7 inches of new snow so far, and it's still snowing lightly. The winds are picking up, there's blowing and drifting snow, and the roads suck.

Meanwhile, in Boston, full blizzard conditions were still ongoing, as they have been since 11 a.m this morning.

The severe storm surge flooding in Massachusetts is slowly beginning to recede, and the good news is flooding will either be non-existent or minor at the next high tide cycle.

The damage is done, of course. There is property damage galore along the coast, with many cars flooded, homes damaged, streets blocked. It was surreal down there this afternoon. Water cascaded down the stairs of a subway stop in Boston as the storm surge, well, surged into the subway station.

These cars in Gloucester, Massachusetts were
flooded out by an unexpectedly severe
storm surge from today's nor'easter. 

Jim Cantore, reporting live for the Weather Channel, had to guide a woman in her SUV out of rising floodwaters. The National Weather Service in Taunton, Massachusetts, which covers Boston, had to warn people not to ride or stand on icebergs floating on the storm surge flooding. These little icebergs could have easily fallen apart, plunging people into the icy water. Strange.

At the bottom of this post, storm chaser Simon Brewer, who usually does tornadoes, captured some amazing storm footage in Scituate, Mass. he took some real risks, I would NOT suggest trying to replicate his work the next time a wicked bad nor'easter comes around.

The worst effects of the storm, except for the Arctic cold, will die down in southern New England over the next few hours, but continue in Maine and the Maritime Provinces of Canada.

Nova Scotia and surrounding areas are dealing with wind gusts over hurricane force, heavy rain, heavy snow, and the type of storm surge flooding that hit Massachusetts. In both Massachusetts and the Canadian Maritimes, power failures are occuring even as subzero Arctic air rushes toward both regions

Here in Vermont, the storm is playing out pretty much as expected. As of late afternoon, most of the state had gotten between one and four inches of new snow, the most in southern and eastern parts of the state.

The story going forward now will be strong, gusty winds, a lot of blowing and drifting snow, and a plunge into some very awful Arctic air

Snow will continue falling, at least off and on through Friday, with the most accumulations in eastern and southern Vermont. We're still looking at total accumulations of three to 10 inches, with the most in eastern Vermont.

Storm surge in Barnstable, Massachusetts today 

While the winds might be strong enough to bring down power lines, I don't think these outages will be widespread or especially long lasting in Vermont. That's a good thing, since we would freeze pretty fast in our houses in the power went out.

It's still going to be miserable outside, to put it mildly. Leave LOTS of extra time to go to work tomorrow morning.

Black ice, light falling snow and oodles of blowing and drifting snow Friday morning will make things on the highways very, very challenging indeed. And it's going to be below zero, so it'll take time to get dressed, warm up the car, etc.

By the way, I know the snow is pretty light and fluffy, but don't shovel it if you're older, or have health problems. The extreme cold makes us more vulnerable to injuries, heart attacks, that sort of thing

Cover up, too! It doesn't take long for wind chills that could reach 40 below to freeze your skin. I've had frostbite in the past, luckily minor. Still, I feel lingering effects from that relatively minor frostbite three decades after it happened.

We're still looking at one of the coldest days in nearly three decades on Saturday. After morning lows in the teens and low 20s below, combine with nasty windchills in the 30s and 40s below, daytime highs are still expected to stay well below zero on Saturday.

Forecasts haven't changed much for early Sunday morning, either. Expect lots of lows across Vermont in the 20s and 30s below. That's not wind chill. that's' actual temperature, folks!

We're still expecting a decent warm up for Monday and Tuesday, when highs will reach the seasonable 20s to low 30s.

And here's a glimmer of possible good news. Computer models had been suggesting another terrible Arctic blast during the middle and end of next week. The latest projection is that cold air will be quite a bit less intense and not as long lasting as originally thought. We'll end up with run of the mill January chill, nothing the least bit unusual. Let's hope that forecast holds.

Here's Simon Brewer's take on the storm today from Scituate, Massachusetts:
\

Nightmare Storm Coming To New England Coast, Vermont Gets Ugly, Too

From Twitter: @whoizmark enjoys the snow falling this
morning in Tallahassee, Florida of all places. 

The media is in a weather frenzy now, and with good reason. Most of the news sites are leading with what they're all calling a bomb storm that is going to sock the East Coast.

I've been talking about this storm for days, and it's becoming a reality. It's still going to stay offshore, but will come close enough to the East Coast from Florida to Maine to really raise some havoc.

They're calling it a bomb storm because it will undergo what us weather geeks call bombogenesis. It's going to intensify and escalate super fast, like a bomb going off. I'll go over the impacts south to north below. Note to my Vermont readers that there is a section below on what forecasters expect out of this for the Green Mountain State.

SOUTHERN NIGHTMARE

Since the storm is heading to the north and northeast, first stop is Florida, where mixed precipitation is falling in the northern part of that state, and winter storm warnings are still flying there. There are lots of videos now flying around the internet of snow falling in Tallahassee, Florida.

Tbe expected path of this storm is well off the coast, which
normally would mean this would be no big deal. But the storm
is so strong and so huge in area that it is and will cause
lots of big probems from Florida to New England and on
into southeastern Canada.

Coastal Georgia is likely to get hit hard. The Weather Channel said the snowiest day in Savannah, Georgia history had 3.6 inches of snow. They're forecasting up to six inches of snow for Savannah, though the National Weather Service says it will be mainly freezing rain there. Either way, horrible.

There might be as much as a quarter to a half inch of ice accumulation in northern Florida and southern Georgia. That much ice is enough to cause real problems here in northern New England. Imagine that part of the country!

And they don't have ice removal trucks and salt down there. They're going to have to wait for a warm up in a few days for the ice to melt.

For the record at 9 a.m. this morning, normally mild Savannah was reporting a temperature of 28 degrees with freezing rain. Sidewalks and streets in Tallahassee were iced over this morning. It even snowed 30 miles offshore of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico last night, which is really something almost unprecedented. Parts of Interstate 10 are closed due to ice. Interstate 10 is the furthest south east to west Interstate in the U.S.

Because the storm is staying offshore, the severe effects of this storm will hug the coast from Georgia on up to the Mid-Atlantic states. In the south, freezing rain will ice things up, and the ice won't go away anytime soon as the cold air surges in behind the storm today and tomorrow.

Along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and along Interstate 95, it'll be a mess of powdery, badly wind driven snow. Travel and commutes will be a nightmare. Closest to the coast, around the Norfolk and Virginia Beach, a blizzard warning is up for winds of 50 mph and whiteout conditions tomorrow. They're warning folks in that area that travel will be impossible, and to be prepared for power failures amid cold and falling temperatures.

Further north into New Jersey and the New York City metro area, forecasters are pulling out their hair trying to determine how much snow will fall on this heavily populated area. If the storm makes a slight jog to the west, they get a lot more than forecast. A slight jog to the east puts them pretty much out of the snow zone.

All this time, the storm will be bombing out and roaring toward New England.

NEW ENGLAND DISASTER?

Normally, when a nor'easter stays as far off the coast as this one will, the effects are only moderate along the New England coast. Generally, this path for a storm would cause some minor coastal flooding, a few power outages from wind and maybe a half foot of snow.

But this storm is so vast and so strong, the New England coast is in for a real pummeling. Here's something to give you an idea how huge the storm's circulation is: The eastern extent of its circulation will be in the central Atlantic, halfway to Europe. The very western edge of its circulation will be somewhere around Iowa. Yeah, that bad.

This forecast map depicts the worst case scenario
for this storm, bringing it very close to the New
England coast. However, this is the NAM computer
model, which is rather unreliable. Most forecasts
take the storm further off the coast than this. 

Plus, the expected track of the storm keeps getting nudged a bit westward closer to New England. Which would increase the impacts of this storm on the region. All this means that in this case, coastal New England is in big trouble.

 There is a blizzard warning for eastern Massachusetts, the immediate coastline of New Hampshire and southwestern Maine, and in Downeast Maine.

The storm is, again, far enough off the coast so the actual snowfall totals won't break any records. Areas near and to the south and east of Boston could easily get a foot or more, but they've seen that before.

But the real story is going to be the wind and the coastal flooding. In some areas on an near Cape Cod the snow will become wet and heavy, and maybe even change to rain for a time. Combine this with winds of up to 70 mph, and you have a recipe for widespread power outages.

Then consider the frigid air that will surge in behind the storm. Imagine having no power with daytime highs of near 10 and lows of near five below, as is expected Friday and Saturday in southeastern Massachusetts.

The real damage from this storm looks like it will be coastal flooding. East and north facing coasts, especially south of Boston, are most vulnerable to this thing. First of all, we're starting with astronomical tides that are above normal on Thursday, with or without a storm.

Then factor in a storm surge of two to three feet. Then consider the waves generated by a long fetch of gales over the Atlantic. You'll have some terrible, battering waves. Also, a lot of ice has formed along the coast with this recent cold wave. Chunks of ice will become additional battering rams during the storm.

The Boston area National Weather Service is expecting structural damage, especially in and near Plymouth, out on the Cape near Dennis, and maybe around Scituate.

At least this is a fairly quick mover, so it won't linger and cause additional damage like the Perfect Storm of 1991 and the Great Blizzard of 1978. Still, this one is very dangerous for the coast.

One other note of caution: One forecast model, called the NAM, brings the storm much closer to New England on Thursday than the other models. If the NAM bears out, the conditions will be much worse than even I've described above. However, the NAM has been a pretty unreliable model, so most forecasters are dismissing that. At least for now.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Here in Vermont, this storm won't be a disaster, but it will be awful and potentially dangerous. Snow will break out amid increasing north winds on Thursday. Since the storm is moving more westward than forecasters thought a few days ago, we'll get a bit more snow than earlier forecasts indicated.

Winter storm watches have been extended westward to the New Hampshire, Vermont border, while the entire state of Vermont is under a winter weather advisory. Vermont will probably get somewhere in the neighborhood of three to eight inches of snow with this, as forecasts now stand.

There's a decent chance there might be a sharp gradient in snow totals in Vermont from east to west, with eight inches or even more near the Connecticut River Valley and perhaps as little as one or two inches near Lake Champlain. That's an uncertain forecast, because precisely where the heaviest snow will fall is anyone's guess at this point.

Wherever the heaviest snow falls, we're not getting all that much by Vermont standards, but the winds will really pick up Thursday afternoon and night, and on Friday. The snow is going to be very light and fluffy, so it will blow around A LOT. There will be whiteouts on the highways at times, and the snow will very quickly drift, which means it'll be hard to keep it off the roads for more than say, five minutes.

As advertised, the temperatures will really take a plunge as well, going below zero sometimes early Friday and staying there until Sunday afternoon.

Wind chills will be ridiculous and downright dangerous, as winds could easily gust to 40 mph or more, especially Thursday night and part of Friday. There could be scattered power failures due to the wind, which is dangerous in such cold conditions. But the good news is I don't think we'll have long lasting or widespread power failures here in Vermont.

It will get insanely cold at night, with widespread teens to near 20 below zero, plus gusty winds Friday night and early Saturday. Late Saturday night and around dawn on Sunday, the winds will be lighter, but temperatures will be in the 20s below zero regionwide, with numerous 30s below popping up in many northern valleys.

This isn't going to be a picnic for our friends in Canada, either. Enviroment Canada is warning people in Nova Scotia and surrounding provinces of damaging storm surges, near hurricane force winds and very heavy snow.

LOOKING AHEAD

After this storm goes by, we'll get the cold, but the Arctic chill will begin to come to an abrupt end starting Sunday afternoon. By Tuesday, temperatures in some areas of New England, including Vermont, could get above freezing. That, of course raises the spectre of possible mixed precipitation and rain, which would create its own new mess. Stay tuned on that one.