Dangerously Stormy March Lion Roars In After Record February Heat

Areas in orange can expect a foot of snow out of the upcoming
storm, but that's not the biggest worry with this.
Severe coastal flooding is likely in New England
and the Mid-Atlantic states, and high winds will
be a problem throughout the Northeast.

The Northeast is bracing for what really does promise to be a destructive storm that will bring a huge area of coastal flooding, high winds, flooding and very heavy snows in some inland areas.

It's only the first of March, and 2018 is already turning out to be a wild, wild weather year. And this storm will make it wilder.

This slow moving monster will cause widespread damage, I'm afraid.

It still looks like Vermont will be on the edge of the storm, but questions are still there as to how interesting things will get in the Green Mountain State.

Record warmth yesterday closed out one of the hottest Februaries on record, by the way. I'll get to that after more storm discussion.

As noted, large areas of the Northeast will received damaging winds. High wind warnings and watches extend from New England to North Carolina, so you know that a lot of people are going to lose power.

But the biggest problems are going to be along the coast, especially from New Jersey to southeastern New England.  This will be a powerful, slow moving storm, so destructive storm surges and battering waves will go through at least three high tide cycles Friday and Saturday.

You might remember the storm in early January that caused such a damaging storm surge in parts of New England. That was only one high tide cycle. This time, the storm surges look like they will at be at least as bad as the one in January. But it will happen three times, not once.

Combine hurricane force wind gusts, repeated storm surges and battering waves, and you can see how destructive this will be along the southern New England coast. The long duration storm will erode beaches and sand dunes, leaving homes and other structures that were thought protected vulnerable.

Inland flooding is also a concern. The developing storm has already triggered widespread flash flood warnings in much of Arkansas and parts of Mississippi and Tennessee.  Flood watches are now in effect in parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England.

This is a tricky storm as far as snowfall is concerned. Where it does snow, it could come down incredibly heavily. In some places, snow could come down Friday at a rate of two inches per hour, and some high elevation locations could clock in with two feet of new snow.

It will be a wet snow in most places that do get it. Combined with the strong winds, that's a recipe for huge power failures. The places most under the gun are the Catskills, western and central New York, maybe the Poconos in Pennsylvania, the Berkshires in Massachusetts and possibly the far southern Green Mountains of Vermont.

Speaking of Vermont.......

VERMONT EFFECTS

Given the size and force of the storm, and given the fact Vermont will be on the edge of this monster, there's a high chance of a forecast bust.  Count on things not exactly working out as forecast, but at least we have an idea of what will happen.

Right now, the biggest effects still look to be in southern Vermont. Precipitation will be heaviest there, and winds will be strongest - gusting to 50 mph or even a little more on Friday.

Temperatures will be marginal for rain versus snow, with the highest chance for snow in the upper elevations, of course.

At the moment, the National Weather Service is forecasting snow to spread south to north overnight tonight across Vermont.  It seems as if enough warm air will wrap into the storm to change the snow to a cold rain, especially across lower elevations on Friday.

That's not guaranteed, so we'll have to wait and see if that actually happens.  In Vermont's southern two counties, a winter storm watch is up for four to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow, combined with gusty winds and possible power failures.

As I said, precipitation is still expected to be relatively light in northern Vermont. But it will be a nasty day with temperatures in the 30s with gusty east winds. It's still possible that heavier precipitation than expected will work its way even into northern Vermont. A slight nudge to the north in the storm track could make things more interesting than forecasters think at the moment.

There will almost certainly be surprises with some areas getting more or less snow than expected, some areas getting more or less rain than expected, and some areas getting more or less wind than expected. So, any forecast you hear will be relatively accurate, but not perfect.

RECORD HEAT

Last day of February in northern Vermont yesterday and
I was already out getting spring projects started.
Record warmth provided the opportunity. 

As we were anticipating the storm, yesterday afternoon, at my house in Vermont just 12 miles south of the Canadian border, I was outdoors in shorts and a t-shirt, beginning my spring projects and garden cleanups. In February!

It was an unexpectedly warm, record toasty day, for sure.

Burlington had a record high of 59 degrees Wednesday, breaking the record of 55 set in 1903. St. Johnsbury had a record high of 56 degrees and Montpelier set a record of 55 degrees, breaking the old record by six degrees.

February, 2018 turned out to be the second warmest February on record in Burlington, with a mean temperature of 30.6 degrees. The previous holder of the second warmest February was last year. (The hottest February was in 1981)

We've been on a remarkably hot streak of Februaries in Vermont. Four of the top 10 warmest Februaries in Burlington have occured in the past six years.  Fourteen of the daily record highs in February - half of them - have happened since 2001. (Burlington's records go back to the 1880s)

We ended up with another warmer than normal meteorological winter, too. (It goes from December 1 through February 28) Despite a frigid start in December and early January, Burlington's meteorological winter averaged out at 24.3 degrees. That's 2.3 degrees warmer than normal.