Challenging Weather Winter For New Englanders, And Forecasters

Coastal flooding in Highlands, New Jersey this morning. 

As we well know, the weather in New England has been all over the place this winter, with plenty of extremes, and quite a number of surprises. Most of the surprises have been bad.

Examples abound: The storm surge flooding in Massachusetts with the January 4 nor'easter was much more destructive than anticipated. 

The January thaw on the 12th was much warmer and much wetter than many forecasters anticipated. The result was ice jams and flooding that was worse than originally predicted region wide.

Today turned out to be another day of surprises for New England. Not so much here in Vermont: The cloudy, chilly weather that had been forecast for today by the National Weather Service in South Burlington and other Vermont meteorologists is verifying pretty much perfectly.

Not so in southern and eastern New England. Meteorologists knew an offshore storm would brush that region with some light to even locally moderate snow today. Once again, we have an overperforming storm.

As of 10 a.m., it was still snowing in parts of that region, and there are already several reports of six to eight inches of new snow in parts of Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts and eastern Connecticut.

It's pretty gusty out there, too, with winds of up to 45 mph on Cape Cod and the Islands.

This is by no means a blockbuster snowstorm by New England standards, but it did surprise morning commuters with more snow than was in the forecast.

Worse, coastal flooding all along the coast from New Jersey north is a little worse than anticipated. We're nearing a full supermoon again, so astronomical tides are even higher than they normally would be. The not-so-impressive storm off the coast was forecast to make the tides a little worse, so some coastal flooding had been anticipated well in advance.

Though by  no means records, some of the coastal flooding is definitely worse than anticpated this morning.

Shoreline flooding has been reported in several communites in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine. Social media videos show flooding in Scituate, Mass., along Morrissey Boulevard in Boston, Hampton, New Hampshire and Ogunquit, Maine.

This isn't good. The flooding isn't super destructive, but let's face it. It's an astronomical tide that shouldn't be a big deal. The storm off the coast isn't that big at all. There should be basically no coastal problems.

Yet, we've got this. Sea level rise caused largely by climate change does seem to be making life along the New England coast, along with many other areas, more perilous.

Harvey, Irma, Disaster Plans And You

No disaster near your house at the moment? Good.
Now's the time to calmly formulate a plan for
the day a disaster DOES hit.

It's a rainy Sunday here in Vermont as the remnants of Harvey lumber through.

We're still watching powerful Hurricane Irma, which is out in the middle of the Atlantic and still definitely poses a potentially very big danger to the United States.

Though we still might get lucky and it could curve out to sea. We'll have to wait until later forecasts to figure this one out.

What will help with the Irma forecasts is the National Hurricane Center is planning on sending hurricane hunter flights into the storm Monday.

The added data, and the more dense data those flights will gather will help take some, but not all of the uncertainty out of Irma's future track.

That would be helpful, since there are still some computer models that are really off the rails with Irma's predicted track. One GFS model brings Irma ashore in the Carolinas, which seems plausible, but then takes it westward to Indiana. Umm........

Today's rainy weather, at least locally, and the threat of Irma makes today a great time to plan for a disaster.

The chances your house will get hit by a huge disaster anytime soon is slim. However, in the off chance you get caught in a disaster, it'll almos surely surprise you, which is bad.  Even if a nasty spell is forecast, we don't think it will be us. Until it is. And then we don't think clearly when we're surprised and scared.

That's why it's good to have a handy dandy disaster plan. Basically a checklist of what you can do when something bad hits. It'll focus you in an emegency.

You can't plan for everything, there are always surprises in every event. But start by thinking about what emergency is most likely to hit near you, and design your plan a fair amount around that.

Are you in a coastal area prone to hurricanes and nor'easter? Is flooding your nightmare? Or maybe you live somewhere prone to wildfires. Or chemical plants that might blow up.

Online, you'll find a instructions and templates on how to plan for a disaster from outfits like the Red Cross and Ready.gov.

Another good resource is the book "The Extreme Weather Survival Manual" by Dennis Mersereau and the editors of Outdoor Life.

Here are some things to think about when making a plan.

You don't have to get elaborate like this video of the Big Bang Theory's Sheldon Cooper conducting a disaster drill.

Instead formulate an outline, and even that will be complex enough.

I would divide it into three scenarios: If you have to evacuate at a drop of a hat;  if you have time to gather things before you leave, or if you're told to shelter in place.

Think about the things you'll really need: Non-perishable food, water, prescription medications, battery operated lights and candles, extra batteries, pet food and supplies, baby supplies if you have a little one, that kind of thing.

It actually wouldn't hurt to head down to the Piggly Wiggly or the place with the helpful hardware folks and buy some of this stuff now. There's no emergency, the stores are fully stocked and nobody's in a panic. Which means the shopping trip would be pretty easy.

Also, have a plan in place to contact loved ones outside the disaster zone, either to let them know you're OK, or HOLY CHRIST I NEED HELP NOW!!!!!

The next tip is emotionally draining, but do it anyway. Read news stories about how people handled being in the middle of the Harvey floods or some other disaster. They'll always tell you what they should have thought of, and those ideas could be good tips for you.

For instance, one woman said that while evacuating from the Harvey flood, the cell phone in her pocket got wet and died. She wished she'd put the phone in a sealable plastic bag. Great tip!

Also, take pictures now of the outside and inside of your house and store those in a safe place. (In the Cloud, maybe if you're careful not to clue in hackers and criminals to what's inside your house.)

This will help later if you need to make an insurance claim.

And here's something you probably can't do this weekend but ought to do soon. Have a nice sit-down with your insurance guy or gal. Are you adequately covered? What other insurance precautions should you take? Is it worth it to buy flood insurance?

I confess I don't have much of an emergency plan, but Harvey has scared me into starting one this weekend. I don't live in a particularly dangerous area. Flooding risk is relatively low, except for the driveway, which could wash out.

My house is not in a place that's super hurricane or wildfire prone. However, you never know what might come along. I guess I should start drawing plans now.

For comic relief, here's that clip of the Big Bang Theory disaster drill: