Persistent Matthew Bearing Down On Haiti, Still Confounding Forecasters

The outer effects of Matthew were starting to hit
Jamaica and Haiti Monday morning, as this visible
satellite image shows. 

Today's the day Hurricane Matthew will really start to affect humans dangerously.

We've been watching it for days, churning erratically across the Caribbean Sea.

Now, the weather is just beginning to get bad in Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba. Between now and Tuesday, we really need to hope for the best for the people in these countries.

There's already some flooding in Jamaica as the outer effects of Matthew hit that island. Things will go downhill all day today and tonight.

Hurricane conditions will reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba by Tuesday, and the Bahamas by Tuesday evening.

It's unusual for a hurricane to maintain Category 4 strength or higher for four days as Matthew has. The longest streak of being at continuously Category 4 or higher was Ivan in 2004, but most Atlantic hurricanes, if they get up to Category 4, only stay that strong for a couple days.

Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph  Category 5 storms are 157 mph or more.

As of this morning, Matthew had "weakened" to a storm with top sustained winds of 130 mph. The National Hurricane Center says fluctuations in strength almost always happen in powerful hurricanes like this, so that's not surprising.

Land interactions with Haiti and Cuba will sap Matthew's strength a little more, but it will still be a dangerous hurricane by the time it hits the Bahamas.

They're still predicting up to 40 inches of rain in Haiti, with 10 to 25 inches common in the hurricane zone in the three countries I mentioned.

As I said yesterday, this is guaranteed to cause devastating floods and mudslides, especially in Haiti, where hillsides are now devoid of trees. (They've all been cut down for firewood.)

Storm surges could reach up to 11 feet in Cuba, 10 feet in Haiti, and 10 to 15 feet in the Bahamas, says the National Hurricane Center.

This will totally devastate coastal areas, and hope those areas have been fully evacuated.  However, Reuters reports that a lot of people in Haiti and to some extent Jamaica have not exactly been rushing away from danger zones. These people are in big trouble.

Winds of 130 mph are devastating and dangerous, obviously, but the greatest loss of life from this storm will probably come from storm surges, flooding and mudslides.

As has been the case for days, we still don't know what Matthew will do once it gets to and past the Bahamas.

Computer forecasting models have been going back and forth like windshield wipers in a downpour. Depending on what run of models, and which models we're talking about, Matthew is a threat for anyone between Florida and Labrador, or it might not hit anything at all in the United States and Canada.

It's a slow moving slog for Matthew, so we'll be watching its path for days. At this point, it'll only get as far north as off the central Florida coast Friday, and east of Georgia Saturday. So us folks here in New England will be watching Matthew closely into early next week.

As I cautioned yesterday, don't take any one forecast for Matthew's track to heart. There will continue to be wide swings in the expected path of the hurricane, depending on what other weather systems surrounding Matthew decide to do.

Hurricane Matthew Continues Extremely Dangerous

Hurricane Matthew south of Jamaica and Haiti
Sunday morning, still packing winds of up to 150 mph.

It seems Haiti is in Matthew's crosshairs now.

Hurricane Matthew is still churning in the Caribbean, packing 150 mph winds.  

It's made its long-anticipated turn to the north, but it's position is just a hair east of where we thought it would be a couple days ago.

Which is sort of good news for Jamaica. That island nation will still get a terrible hurricane with devastating flash floods and horrific winds, but it won't be the direct blow we anticipated.

The very, VERY bad news is Matthew has its sights on the poverty stricken nation of Haiti. Most buildings there are not up to the task of withstanding Matthew's winds, even if the storm weakens ever so slightly, as anticipated.

Worse, the National Hurricane Center expects 15 to 25 inches of rain, with local amounts to 40 inches in Haiti because of Matthew.

To put those amounts in perspective, it normally takes a year for us New Englanders to accumulate 35 to 40 inches of precipitation. Haiti's going to get that amount in a couple of days.

Worse, Haiti is a hilly nation, and everybody has stripped the hillsides of trees in a desperate bid for firewood. (They can't afford fuel)

The lack of trees means there's nothing to hold the hillsides in place during torrential rains and nothing to absorb water. There is going to be horrible, fatal mudslides and flash floods in Haiti. I'm terribly worried about the people who live there.'

Cuba, too. Eastern Cuba is going to be nailed by Matthew, too.  The weather will deteroriate in these areas during the day today, and these nations should expect the brunt of the hurricane Monday into early Tuesday

Matthew is strong, but has had an odd appearance over the past day or more. It's got its traditional small, calm eye with its intense winds circulating around it. The core of Matthew is not huge in size as hurricanes go, but it is wild.

However, Matthew has also hung on to a huge blob of intense thunderstorms just to its east. If that holds together, it could end up prolonging the agony of Matthew in Haiti and neighboring Dominican Republic.

It appears this huge blob of storms on the east flank of Matthew is caused by the collision of trade winds blowing from the east as they normally do, colliding with strong west winds on the southern half of Matthew.

When winds collide like this, they have nowhere to go but up. Intense rising air means intense thunderstorms, and that explains Matthew's eastern blob.

The next port of call for Matthew after Haiti and Cuba is the Bahamas, where hurricane watches are already up. Matthew, once again, will probably have weakened a bit more by the time in reaches the Bahamas, but will still pack powerful winds of 110 mph, says the National Hurricane Center.

Plus, you have to remember: Meteorologists are better at forecasting the path of a hurricane than they are the strength. Matthew could regenerate big time amid the warm waters of the Bahamas. Even the best forecasters at the National Hurricane Center know their strength forecast for Matthew over the Bahamas could be a bust.

On top of that, meteorologists still aren't that great at forecasting the path of hurricanes once you get three days or more out. That's not a slam at scientists, it's just that we still have a lot to learn about hurricanes and other tropical systems.

There's still a LOT of questions as to what Matthew will do once it gets to and past the Bahamas. Will it curve harmlessly out to sea? Slam into North Carolina, then spread heavy rains up into the Northeast. Stay off shore until it gets to the Northeast and crash into New England? Or will it do something else?

All this depends on how Matthew interacts with a strong ridge of high pressure over and east of the Canadian Maritimes, a storm system in the Ohio Valley, and a weak tropical system that might form northeast of Matthew.

Subtle changes in the positions, or forecast positions of all these weather systems will greatly influence the path of Matthew.

For us New Englanders, even if Matthew gets this far north, it would happen a week from now. Which means we have plenty of time to monitor forecasts and act accordingly.

Don't panic now if somebody on social media posts a forecast image of Matthew slamming into New England as a very strong hurricane. There are many computer forecasting models that have dozens of scenarios for Matthew, so we shouldn't hang on to one forecast.

Anyone who tells you now on social media that New England is definitely screwed is a hurricane troll. Don't pay attention. Just listen to reliable weather sources. (The National Hurricane Center, the National Weather Service and The Weather Channel are good places to start.)

I'll try my best to relay good information, and I'll try to do it in plain English as we go forward with Matthew.