Hurricane Dorian "Sharpiegate" Violated Integrity Rules

Last year's Sharpiegate scandal was a warning that "alternative facts"
over real science could have dangerous consequences. We certainly
learned that this year.

Yes, I'm back to Sharpiegate, that moment last year that seems so long ago when President Trump falsely said Hurricane Dorian would affect Alabama, and later showed a map altered with a Sharpie that falsely suggested the hurricane had been forecast to hit that area.

New reporting this week shows that NOAA officials violated science integrity rules when scrambling to incorrectly back up Donald Trump's wrong statement last year that Hurricane Dorian would blast Alabama, among other things.

In the grand scheme of things, Sharpiegate seems so insignificant now with the nation's botched Covid-19 response killing people and the Black Lives Matter movement highlighting the stain of racism and police brutality in the United States.

However, Sharpiegate is important in a way because it shows how Trump's sycophants prioritize the "need" to massage Trump's super needy ego at the expense of truth, sound policy, and in this case, science.  As we've learned since, ignoring science can be deadly.

This whole thing with what happened last year should have been a small forgettable gaffe that all presidents make.  In the run up to dangerous Hurricane Dorian, Trump included Alabama in a list of states that could be affected.

Very early forecasts had suggested just that, but in the days leading up to Trump's' words, Alabama was off the table. That state would escape Dorian scot-free.

Due to panicked messages they were receiving after Trump spoke, the Birmingham office of the National Weather Service issued a statement saying that Dorian would not affect the state.

A normal president would have then said, "Oopsie, I had bad information. Turns out Alabama's fine," then dropped the whole thing. From there, everybody would have moved on.

But no, not Trump. He always seems ready to waste lots of precious time, resources and reputation to claim he is always right, evidence be damned.

So we had Sharpiegate

The latest report, via Gizmodo and many other media outlets, is this:

"Internal documents supposedly showed that Tim Gallaudet, NOAA's deputy administrator, nor Neil Jacobs, the acting NOAA administrator, had authorized the press release backing Trump - instead, the order apparently came from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who issued threats to fire Jacobs and other top NOAA officials. Per the Washington Post, an inquiry conducted on NOAA's behalf by the nonprofit National Academy of Public Administration now finds Jacobs and NOAA deputy chief of staff/director of communications Julie Roberts committed at least two violations of scientific integrity rules in issuing the statement claiming NWS Birmingham was wrong. 

The report also concluded that neither official commited a violation when they issued media guidance that limited NOAA scientists from speaking openly to the media about the matter. But Jacobs and Roberts 'intentionally, knowingly or in reckless disregard,' violated conduct and ethics sections of the NOAA Scientific Integrity Policy twice: First by refusing to let scientists in Birmingham review the statement pre-publication, and then sending it out and "compromising NOAA's integrity and reputation as an independent scientific agency."

Of course, this won't matter very much for the people involved, since apparently nobody is facing consequences for these violations. Typical in this administration.  Everybody seems to do whatever they want, regardless of legality and ethics. No wonder there are howls of protest against this administration echoing across the United States.

When Sharpiegate first erupted last year, I said this would erode trust in science, facts and policy when more serious issues came along.  And sure enough, Covid came on the scene, and once again, people who should know better are creating "alternate facts" to appease Trump's little mind.

This time, though, unlike Sharpiegate, millions of lives are at stake and there have already probably been thousands of needless deaths.

Sharpiegate was a warning to the nation about how dangerous this administration is.  We should have listened.

Wimpy, Disgusting NOAA Official Gaslights, Bows To King Trump, Uproar Ensues

In issuing this statement last night, NOAA's top brass decided to
soothe Donald Trump's fragile ego with this lie.

Sometimes I get political in this blog. This time, I'm going at it with both barrels, because I was so outraged last night I couldn't sleep.

Yes, this goes back to Donald Trump's obsession with Alabama and Hurricane Dorian.  Things with this got much worse late yesterday.

Despite all evidence to the contrary, an unnamed NOAA official bowed and curtsied to Cheeto Trump and said that Trump was right all along, that Hurricane Dorian did indeed threaten Alabama, despite what the expert National Weather Service meteorologists in Birmingham, Alabama, and pretty much everywhere else said.

Yeah, some unnamed NOAA Trump cultist threw Alabama scientists under the bus. Very blatantly and wrongly, too. As you might remember from a previous post in this here blog thingy,  Trump on Sunday listed Alabama as one of the states threatened by Dorian.  The NWS office in Birmingham, Alabama, issued a tweet 20 minutes later, assuring Alabamans that Dorian was not threatening them.

These meteorologists wisely tried to avoid panicking people with an incorrect forecast. You know, trying to protect the public. Like they're supposed to do.

But screw the public. Above all else, Trump the baby has to be appeased. He's been incredibly whiny all week that no, he was right, Alabama was threatened by Dorian. He just couldn't drop it.  He's too insecure to admit to being wrong.  Even though his original Alabama forecast was just a case of him misspeaking. Something every president since George Washington has done.

All Trump had to do is correct his statement, and move on. Everyone would have forgotten about it. But Trump, who seriously needs counseling, kept pushing all week. All. Friggin. Week.

Which led to last night's idiotic, gaslighting statement which read in part:  "The Birmingham National Weather Service's Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time."

This statement from NOAA is totally, 100 percent pants on fire a lie. The best forecasting and probabilities - actually basically all of them - indicated that Dorian would definitely miss Alabama.
I went over this in a post the other day. Go ahead and re-read it. 

And forecasters turned out to be correct. It turns out Dorian's effects on Alabama consisted of a few wispy cirrus clouds that briefly decorated the sky over the far eastern part of the state.

Besides, if the NWS meteorologists in Birmingham were wrong last Sunday, why didn't the head honchos at NOAA correct them then? When Dorian was supposedly threatening Alabama. When the public needed to be protected. The answer is everybody knows the Birmingham meteorologists were correct.

Here's what really gets me. Who is this damn NOAA official who's so afraid of a mentally challenged, oranged-skinned idiot who somehow found his way into the Oval Office to blatantly lie like that?  To absolutely insult and dismiss some of the nation's finest, most diligent scientists?

I find it telling that unlike so many press releases, this one from NOAA was unsigned. We don't know exactly who wrote it, but I'm sure our investigative journalists will find out.

Predictably, pun intended, the reaction to this outrage from the NOAA spokespeople from meterologists, other weather geeks and the general public is, well, outrage.

David Titley, a former NOAA chief operating officer tweeted: "Perhaps the darkest day ever for @noaa leadership. Don't know how they will ever look their workforce in the eye again. Moral cowardice."

Texas Meteorologist Matt Lanza said this, also not mincing words: "This is a complete and utter disgrace. The NWS in Birmingham's tweet was 100% spot on with the absolute terms it chose at that time, and anyone telling you otherwise is a liar. Trump is taking NWS, arguably the most effective government agency & trying to ruin it to save face."

You tell 'em, Matt!

James Spann, a revered longtime Alabama meteorologist who never delves into political issues, did this time, tweeting: "The tweet from NWS Birmingham was spot on and accurate. If they are coming after them, they might as well come after me. How in the world has it come to this?"

The Washington Post Capital Weather Gang nailed the danger this NOAA gaslighting puts Americans in:  

"The Weather Service's mission is to protect life and property. By releasing the statement admonishing the agency for an accurate forecast, NOAA may be seen as putting politics before facts. This could undermine forecasters' abillity to carry out their mission to the point where people may come to see its weather forecasts as political and untrustworthy."

National Weather Service employees are understandably demoralized. "The hard-working employees of the NWS had nothing to do with the utterly disgusting and disingenuous tweet sent ot by NOAA management tonight," said Dan Sobien, president of teh NWS Employees Union.

As noted, I don't know who wrote the bogus NOAA release last night. But the director of communications for NOAA is Julie Kay Roberts.

I hope journalists hound her with the following questions (and any additional good questions):

1. If Alabama was under threat as of last Sunday, why were residents of that state not warned then? Why did you wait until Friday night to contradict the meteorologists at the NWS office in Birmingham. Wasn't Friday too late?

2 NWS in Birmingham's Sunday statement that Alabama was not threatened by Hurricane Dorian turned out to be totally accurate. So what's the issue?

3. Since it turned out Alabama was not affected by Dorian, should we have been paying more attention to the Carolinas, which were affected?

4.Do you believe the meteorologists at NWS Birmingham or any other NWS office are incompetent? If so, what are you doing about it

5 Are you concerned the statement released last night would cause the public to lose confidence in NWS forecasts, and thus ignore potentially life-saving warnings?

We're waiting for answers.

Not Alabama: Reivigorated Dorian Targets Carolinas

Devastation in the Bahamas. Image via The Weather Channel

Seemingly indestructable Hurricane Dorian gathered some strength yesterday from the warm Gulf Stream waters east of Florida and is now slogging its way toward the Carolinas, where a lot of damage seems inevitable.  

Early this morning, the National Hurricane Center said Dorian was 75 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina with winds of 115 mph.  Charleston and surrounding areas were already getting gusty rainbands and flooding by dawn, and it will get worse.

Storm surges will range from four to eight feet in many areas, and water levels might rise well in advance of Dorian's strong winds. Many streets in Charleston were flooded by storm surges early this morning. Additionally, six to 12 inches of rain are in the forecast for coastal areas of the Carolinas.

Dorian was also spinning off several tornadoes this morning. There has already been several reports of confirmed tornadoes with damage in North and South Carolina.

Dorian is still expected to parallel the Carolina coast, and might come ashore at least briefly anywhere between South Carolina and North Carolina's Outer Banks.  It'll be close enough to cause hurricane force winds, especially east of Interstate 95.

Trump o Wednesday tried to defend his incorrect Sunday statement
that Dorian would hit Alabama, using an outdated National
Hurricane Center map altered with a Sharpie making it look
like it was headed toward Alabama.

This after all the extreme destruction in the Bahamas, where the death toll has risen to 20. Authorities expect to find more fatalities. Many injured people were airlifted to hospitals in Nassau in the Bahamas. (There is little hurricane damage in Nassau, as Dorian passed well north of that city.)

Meanwhile, we had our own unfortunate hurricane sideshow Wednesday in the White House.  President Trump falsely or mistakenly said on Sunday that Alabama would get hit by Hurricane Dorian.

After that little gaffe, he could have easily corrected himself and moved on. Anyone can make a mistake, and everybody would have forgotten about it.  

About 20 minutes after Trump said Sunday Alabama would be hit, the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama tweeted out assurances to the public that the state was fine, no need to panic. Trump could have then said, "Whoops! We have updated information, Alabama is OK after all."

But oh, no, not Donald! He actually wasted time Wednesday showing a doctored National Hurricane Center map that had been very outdated by the time he made his Alabama comments on Sunday.

Here's a National Hurricane Center map issued Sunday morning,
hours before Trump's Alabama gaffe. He could have consulted
this map, which (accurately) predicted Dorian would
avoid Alabama and parallel the Florida coast instead.

The map was from three days earlier, showing a projected path for Dorian into the heart of Florida. Worse, Trump or more likely somebody on his staff took a Sharpie and appended a further path on the map into southeastern Alabama. Trump needs his own reality,  you understand.

Of course, you'd think a president would have the latest information from the National Hurricane Center. By Sunday, the NHC forecast had Dorian moving northward, paralleling the Florida coast (which is exactly what actually happened.)  Why wasn't he using Sunday's NHC information on Sunday?

By the way, it is technically illegal to falsify a National Weather Service forecast or statement.

Trump later cited so called "spaghetti plots" which are maps that show what each computer model thinks would be the path of the storm. (The lines go in many directions, so all the lines on the map look like a bowl of spaghetti, hence the name.)

The spaghetti plots that Trump said indicated possible Dorian paths into Alabama were issued four days before his statement, so they were outdated. If Trump is that interested in spaghetti plots (doubtful) why didn't he check them Sunday morning, when all of them had Dorian missing Alabama?

Instead of laughably trying to defend himself with big efforts to defend his lies, maybe Trump should focus on a hurricane response in the Carolinas, and to see what the Bahamas need from us.

Welcome Blowback Against False Breitbart Climate Change Story (But Will That Matter?)

This chart from Climate Central shows the reality. (Cick on it to make it
bigger and easier to read. El Nino years (orange bars) are
hotter. The period just after El Nino is cooler (blue bars)
but the overall global temperature trend is up, up, up.  

Over the past week, everybody who has even a smidge of interest in climate change has been piling on the odious Brietbart website, Britain's Daily Mirror and the the U.S. House Commitee on Science, Space and Technology.

The reason: A false story claiming global warming is "over" and that global temperatures are plunging.

The Daily Mirror published it, Breitbart republished and repurposed it, and the so-called House science committee re-tweeted it.

Who cares if none of what they published is true? Breitbart doesn't, but lots of other people do.

Lots of people were quick to draw bullshit on the article. Because, obviously, the article is total bullshit. But that never stopped anyone in this post-fact world.

The Breitbart article is titled "Global Temperatures Plunge. Icy Silence from Climate Alarmists."

The silence from the so-called climate alarmists is probably from banging their heads against their desks too much from dumb "articles" like this.

As always with the climate deniers, the Mirror and Breitbart bullcrap writers cherry picked dubious data to come up with their climate change is over myth.

There are three main sources of satellite data that estimate temperatures in the Earth's lower atmosphere. All three showed a bit of a decline in temperature from early this year to about now.

That mini trend was widely expected by virtually all climate scientists. A strong El Nino came on top of global warming, which sent worldwide temperatures rising to record levels.  El Ninos tend to increase Earths' temperatures, with or without global warming.

El Nino is gone, and so are its effects. With El Nino's influence gone, temperatures have temporarily gone down slightly.

As many, including Bob Henson and Jeff Masters at Weather Underground note, The Mirror and Brietbart are masters at cherry picking data to come up with wildly incorrect conclusions that nonetheless fit their false narrative.

The Mirror and Breitbart used one source of satellite data, RSS, to claim global temperatures plunged by 1 degree Celius this year. RSS had a bigger decline in temperatures than other sources, and there have been problems with RSS data lately. They're working on a fix.

Actually the RSS data showed a bit of a reversal in temperatures as we got into November and showed readings across the globe rose a bit then. But Breitbart ignored that. Not part of the narrative.

Republicans on the now badly named U.S. House Committee on Science, Space and Technology committee, who are into the climate change denial racket, approving retweeted the Breitbart article.

As always, Bernie Sanders had just the right response. He tweeted back to the committee: "Where'd you get your PhD? Trump University?"

Yeah, something like that, apparently.

You should watch The Weather Channel's Kait Parker's glorious takedown of the Breitbart/House Committee bullcrap at the bottom of this post.

Parker's money quote: "Here's the thing: Science doesn't care about your opinion...Cherry picking and changing the facts will not change the future, not the act - note: fact, not opinion- that the earth is warming."

Of course, pointing out how extremely off the mark Breitbart, et al are is nice, but cynical me wonders if it would have any effect.

Trump and many Congressional Republicans aren't going to deal with global warming, especially with all the oil company donations that pour into their campaigns.

Plus, they don't want to upset their all important "base" who have taken the climate denial Kool-Aid.

You'd think the debate on whether climate change would be over and we'd be far into the debate on what to do about it.

But we're in that bizarro fact free world now, so the Powers That Be will just keep going on with their self invented narrative. It's comfortable for them, I guess, but pretty scary for the rest of us.

Here's that Weather Channel takedown that I enjoyed: