Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season Ahead?

Satellite view of Hurricane Dorian trashing large parts of the
Bahamas last year.  Colorado State University researchers think
the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be busy. 

Yesterday,  I speculated about the possibility a subtropical storm forming in the Atlantic, born out of the storm that gave us Vermonters the dreary weather yesterday and today.

That's still a big question mark, but the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project added fuel to the seasonal tropical expectations this year.  They're predicting a busier than normal hurricane season this summer and autumn.

They're predicting 16 named storms, compared to the normal of 12. Colorado State University says eight of those storms will be hurricanes against an average of six annually. Four of the hurricanes are predicted to be real biggies, compared to a normal of three major hurricanes.

The devil is the details, of course. Even if their forecast turns out to be spot on, Colorado State University meteorologists, or anybody else for that matter, have no idea where all these storms will form or go.

If they all somehow stay harmlessly out to sea, then it's obviously no big deal. If a lot of them start crashing onshore, especially the major hurricanes, then we have huge trouble to face.

I'm guessing you're aware there's a huge, tragic, highly disruptive pandemic going on now, and all kinds of emergency services are stretched to the breaking point. Even if the pandemic wanes over the summer - a big if - imagine trying to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people from say, Florida as a dangerous hurricane approaches.

Then deal with the aftermath - dead and injured, massive property damage, infrastructure such as roads, electricity, internet all wrecked in a big area. You can see how challenging that is in better circumstances. This is the year you really don't want to deal with this.

Last year, the United States was relatively lucky with hurricanes, even if other parts of the Atlantic Basin were clearly not so lucky.  Hurricane Dorian, which leveled parts of the Bahamas, only skirted the United States and made landfall in a weaker state in North Carolina.

Dorian did cause a lot of damage in the United States, but it could have been immensely worse. The only other highly destructive storm was Tropical Storm Imelda in Texas.  There wasn't much wind with that one, but it caused massive flooding.

We don't want years like 2017 and 2018, when destructive hurricanes hit hard in America.

One of many factors that will influence hurricanes this year is El Nino or La Ninas in the eastern Pacific. El Ninos feature warm water in parts of the eastern Pacific which help squelch Atlantic hurricanes. La Ninas, cooler water in the eastern Pacific can encourage Atlantic hurricanes.

The signals are kind of mixed this year, but feature either a situation in which there won't really be an El Nino or a La Nina. Or maybe there will be a weak La Nina.

Ocean temperatures are broadly warmer than average in the Atlantic Ocean. If that trend continues into the summer and fall, that could also encourage more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes.

We really have to watch the Gulf of Mexico.  It's now incredibly toasty, almost at record high levels. That could change by hurricane season, but if not, that area could be a hotbed for storm development.

In the shorter term, the hot Gulf of Mexico is a potential tornado trouble maker. We're heading into peak tornado season.  A very warm Gulf would encourage warmer and more humid air than usual to make its way north into the middle of the nation.

Warmer, more humid air is one critical ingredient for severe storms.  If other conditions come together just right on occasion over the next couple of months, then tornadoes could be more destructive and frequent than usual.

Tornado season this year is already off to a bad start. So far this year there have been at least 180 tornadoes, causing 33 deaths, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Getting back to hurricanes, the Colorado State hurricane forecast, issued Thursday, is just that, a forecast.  It's not set in stone, and like all weather predictions, especially long range forecasts, this one will surely be a little off one way or another.

Forecasters will refine tropical storm expectations as we head toward the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Tornado Onslaught Was One Of The Busiest Of The Decade

As you can see in this map, lots of tornado reports have
come in this month across the country. While most of them
have been in the southern and central Plains and Midwest,
some have been reported anywhere between California
and New Jersey. The map shows here in Vermont,
we've continued our long tornado-free streak. The
last Vermont tornado was in 2014.

Several days ago, I say that the number of tornadoes hitting the United States was definitely higher than normal, but not too, too far out of the ordinary.

But the tornadoes kept hitting. And hitting. Now, we're up to more than 470 preliminary reports of tornadoes in the past 30 days. There  have been only four other occasions in the past 15 years or so with that many tornadoes in such a short period of time. Those were in 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2011.

During May, the nation is typically, on average, hit by about 275 tornadoes. 

We're still not yet in record territory for the number of tornadoes within just a few weeks, but it's been busy, busy, busy.

Seven people have died in tornadoes over the past week, which is a terrible toll. But given the number of tornadoes, that number of casualties is strikingly low.  It's a testiment to great warnings by the National Weather Service and local media meteorologists. And it's a sign that people headed warnings and fled to basements, closets and storm shelters as the tornadoes approached.

Another good thing. Most of the tornadoes were relatively weak to moderately strong, not EF4s or EF5s, which are the strongest and most dangerous. Those higher end tornadoes generally cause the most deaths, because often, hiding in a closet or basement isn't good enough to survive the real biggies.

Finally, we're about to catch a break. The stalled weather pattern that has kept a clash of hot air over the Southeast, chilly air in the western United States and relentless storminess in the middle is breaking down.

This Linwood, Kansas house was wrecked by one of 475 or so tornadoes
that have struck the nation this month. Photo by Chris Neal of
the Topeka Capital-Journal

A more gentle, somewhat west to east air flow will come across the nation over the next several days. Which means, going forward into next week, there might be a few severe storms and even tornadoes here and there, not many will form. No big new outbreaks are in the offing.

Serious flooding remains a big problem, though, even as all that rain tapers off. I'm headed to South Dakota Friday, and I notice so many rivers there are in flood stage, even major flood stage. The water will be receding (I hope!) while I am there, as mostly dry weather is forecast next week.

Elsewhere, it's worse. Parts of Missouri are running a whopping 18 inches above normal for rainfall this month, says the National Weather Service in Kansas City. Some places in the Corn Belt have received an incredible 30 inches of rain in the past month. During that time, four or five inches would have been normal.

As you can imagine, the soggy, flooded fields means spring crop planting is way behind schedule. Less than 60 percent of the anticipated Midwest corn crop has been planted. More than 90 percent of the seeds should have been in the ground by now, says the USDA.

While rainfall will be less intense over the coming week in the hardest hit flood zones, there will still be bouts of unneeded rain that could dump a couple more inches of water in places like Missouri and Kansas.

The bottom line: The weather pattern has finally gotten a little friendlier, but the damage is done. And who knows whether this is a real long lasting break, or just a brief respite from the destructive weather in the middle of the nation?

National Hurricane Center Says They're Bracing For A Busy Season

Severe flooding in North Carolina last year from Hurricane
Matthew. The National Hurrican Center says this year
could be another busy hurricane season. 

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center   this morning said they are gearing up for a busier than normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.

Here's the scoop, straight from the source:

"Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 or higher) includig 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph of higher) An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes."

The official Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, though you can get some out of this season. We already had one tropical storm this year, Arlene last month.

Whether a potentially busy hurricane season badly affects the United States is still an open question. If we get these extra tropical storms and hurricanes, will many of them hit the coastline, or will most of them stay harmlessly out to sea?

Believe it or not, we still haven't had a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) make landfall in the United States in 12 year. That's a record long time.

However, as we well know, a hurricane doesn't have to be major, or cross the coastline to cause major trouble for us.

Last year, Major Hurricane Matthew stayed just offshore of Florida, and did not come ashore until it had weakened to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds in South Carolina.

Still, Matthew caused massive storm surge and river flooding in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, causing about $10 billion in damage in the United States and another $5 billion in the Caribbean.

We in Vermont remember Hurricane Irene in 2011, which was a tropical storm by the time it reached us but still caused what was easily one of the Top 5 worst flood disasters in Vermont history.

NOAA bases its 2017 forecast on several factors. During the hurricane season, El Nino, the periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to be weak or non-existent.

El Ninos increase upper air wind shear, which tears apart wannabe hurricanes. Also, water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are warmer than average. Warmer water tends to encourage tropical storms and hurricanes