East Coast Should Start Watching, But Not Panicking Over Unpredictable Florence

Satellite map shows Florence in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean,
two strong disturbances that will become tropical storms in
the eastern Atlantic and the wet remains of Gordon
lurking over Arkansas. 

Hurricane Florence, now, temporarily Tropical Storm Florence, is one of those storms that make meteorologists bald from pulling out their hair so much.  

The storm, still in the central Atlantic Ocean, keeps surprising forecasters with its variable strength and uncertain direction.

Worse, the overall weather pattern over North America and the Atlantic Ocean is very strange, making forecasting all the more difficult.

This mess would just be an esoteric exercise for weather geeks except for one thing: Florence could cause real, scary trouble somewhere along the East Coast. Nobody is sure yet. So no panicking, please.

Also, definitely ignore the clickbait that's out there on social media that says The End Is Nigh.

It's not.

Instead, check out the National Hurricane Center or sane meteorologists you trust to get the best information on Florence. Or any other hurricane or storm for that matter.

Before you start panicking, remember: Florence is still way out over the central Atlantic and people have plenty of time to prepare. As the next few days go by, we'll have a clearer picture of whether Florence will score a devastating blow on the East Coast, or turn harmlessly out to sea, or do something between those two extremes.

WHAT TO DO NOW

It is the middle of hurricane season. Which means Florence is a great excuse for people everywhere along the East Coast to consider what they would do if threatened by a major hurricane.

Where would you go if told to evacuate? What stuff would you take with you if told to evacuate? How would you protect your home and/or business?  Where are your important papers and documents, and can you easily protect those? Are there copies of those documents in another safe space? What about the stuff you have saved on your computer? Is that stored in some sort of backup or the cloud?

What would you do with your pets? Do you have an emergency stash of nonperishable food and water if told to shelter in place? (Remember, stores will be closed and electricity will be out long after a bad hurricane has passed.)

If you need supplies for any future hurricane that comes along next week, this year, or next year or five years from now, this weekend is a great time to head down to Home Depot and the grocery store to get some of these items. Nobody's panicking now, so you'll be able to get in and out of these stores just fine, and what you're looking for will still be in stock.

So what about Florence?

WHAT FLORENCE IS DOING

The European compuer models seem to want to take Florence into
the Southeast or Middle Atlantic States. These potential tracks
are all various versions of the European. Note these are
NOT definitely predictions and more speculation.
Take this map with a big grain of salt. 

Florence, against all odds, rapidly strengthened into a major Category 4 storm a couple days ago, despite strong upper level winds that should have kept it in check.

Then those high level winds finally ripped into Florence over the past 24 hours and it has weakened into a tropical storm with top winds estimated at 65 mph, and I think that's generous. Florence looks pretty disorganized as of this morning.

Forecasters think the strong upper level winds peaked early this morning and will gradually relax as Florence heads generally westward. That means the storm will likely start strengthening again. On top of that, Florence is going to move over warmer water. The hotter the water, the more likely a hurricane will strengthen.

Nobody knows how much Florence will strengthen, and given its history, nobody dares make a precise guess.

The future path of Florence is even more tricky to figure out. A couple days ago, Florence was in a spot in the Atlantic Ocean that keeps hurricanes from the East Coast. Every prior hurricane that had been in that area in known history curved north and away from the East Coast.

But there's that weird weather pattern I talked about. It's pretty much the same one we had all summer, with a strong ridge of high pressure near or off the southeastern Canadian coast.

American computer models want to take Florence more
toward New England. Again, this is just one run
of a computer model with potential tracks and NOT an
official forecast. This map is basically
speculation at this point. 

That ridge will block Florence if tries to turn north. However, there will be occasional weaknesses in that otherwise strong high pressure to the north of Florence.

Those weakenesses just might allow Florence to turn north and miss the United States, or at least turn north soon enough so it stays just offshore, so the impacts wouldn't be quite so bad.

Other computer models smash Florence directly into the East Coast. If this happens, nobody is sure where.

Here's another problem: Ocean water temperatures off the East Coast, all the way past Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes, is near record warm.  Hurricanes heading north past the Mid-Atlantic states tend to start weakening because of the chilly ocean water.

If Florence heads north of say, Virginia, it has the potential to stay stronger longer because of the toasty water.

All this is still speculation, so we're just going to have to wait it out until forecasts become more clear.

REMEMBER GORDON?

You probably remember Tropical Storm Gordon a few days ago coming ashore along the northern Gulf Coast, causing some wind and flood damage.

Gordon's remains still lurk out there. It was sitting around Arkansas this morning spreading heavy rain around.  The ghost of Gordon is going to cause huge trouble today and over the weekend, with a serious potential for flooding in places like Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. These areas have gotten lots of rain in recent weeks. The soil is saturated, and heavy rains could easily cause flooding.

A huge area from Arkansas to Iowa to Ohio is under a flash flood watch today. Atmospheric conditions will only make the chances for heavy rain increase later today and tonight, so this could be bad.

The good news, at least for us Vermonters, is that a storm that contains the remains of Gordon is expected to come through Monday and early Tuesday. We have a shot of receiving the first widespread, steady rain in the Green Mountain State since at least June.

Since much of the state is in drought or abnormally dry conditions, this will help. Us Vermonters might be lucky in getting Gordon's silver lining.

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE

Two strong weather disturbances have moved westward off the African Coast and into the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricance Center says both disturbances are extremely likely to turn into tropical storms, and soon.

It's way, way too early to think about where those two storms will go. We have our hands full with Florence, so let's deal with that first.

Harvey, Irma, Disaster Plans And You

No disaster near your house at the moment? Good.
Now's the time to calmly formulate a plan for
the day a disaster DOES hit.

It's a rainy Sunday here in Vermont as the remnants of Harvey lumber through.

We're still watching powerful Hurricane Irma, which is out in the middle of the Atlantic and still definitely poses a potentially very big danger to the United States.

Though we still might get lucky and it could curve out to sea. We'll have to wait until later forecasts to figure this one out.

What will help with the Irma forecasts is the National Hurricane Center is planning on sending hurricane hunter flights into the storm Monday.

The added data, and the more dense data those flights will gather will help take some, but not all of the uncertainty out of Irma's future track.

That would be helpful, since there are still some computer models that are really off the rails with Irma's predicted track. One GFS model brings Irma ashore in the Carolinas, which seems plausible, but then takes it westward to Indiana. Umm........

Today's rainy weather, at least locally, and the threat of Irma makes today a great time to plan for a disaster.

The chances your house will get hit by a huge disaster anytime soon is slim. However, in the off chance you get caught in a disaster, it'll almos surely surprise you, which is bad.  Even if a nasty spell is forecast, we don't think it will be us. Until it is. And then we don't think clearly when we're surprised and scared.

That's why it's good to have a handy dandy disaster plan. Basically a checklist of what you can do when something bad hits. It'll focus you in an emegency.

You can't plan for everything, there are always surprises in every event. But start by thinking about what emergency is most likely to hit near you, and design your plan a fair amount around that.

Are you in a coastal area prone to hurricanes and nor'easter? Is flooding your nightmare? Or maybe you live somewhere prone to wildfires. Or chemical plants that might blow up.

Online, you'll find a instructions and templates on how to plan for a disaster from outfits like the Red Cross and Ready.gov.

Another good resource is the book "The Extreme Weather Survival Manual" by Dennis Mersereau and the editors of Outdoor Life.

Here are some things to think about when making a plan.

You don't have to get elaborate like this video of the Big Bang Theory's Sheldon Cooper conducting a disaster drill.

Instead formulate an outline, and even that will be complex enough.

I would divide it into three scenarios: If you have to evacuate at a drop of a hat;  if you have time to gather things before you leave, or if you're told to shelter in place.

Think about the things you'll really need: Non-perishable food, water, prescription medications, battery operated lights and candles, extra batteries, pet food and supplies, baby supplies if you have a little one, that kind of thing.

It actually wouldn't hurt to head down to the Piggly Wiggly or the place with the helpful hardware folks and buy some of this stuff now. There's no emergency, the stores are fully stocked and nobody's in a panic. Which means the shopping trip would be pretty easy.

Also, have a plan in place to contact loved ones outside the disaster zone, either to let them know you're OK, or HOLY CHRIST I NEED HELP NOW!!!!!

The next tip is emotionally draining, but do it anyway. Read news stories about how people handled being in the middle of the Harvey floods or some other disaster. They'll always tell you what they should have thought of, and those ideas could be good tips for you.

For instance, one woman said that while evacuating from the Harvey flood, the cell phone in her pocket got wet and died. She wished she'd put the phone in a sealable plastic bag. Great tip!

Also, take pictures now of the outside and inside of your house and store those in a safe place. (In the Cloud, maybe if you're careful not to clue in hackers and criminals to what's inside your house.)

This will help later if you need to make an insurance claim.

And here's something you probably can't do this weekend but ought to do soon. Have a nice sit-down with your insurance guy or gal. Are you adequately covered? What other insurance precautions should you take? Is it worth it to buy flood insurance?

I confess I don't have much of an emergency plan, but Harvey has scared me into starting one this weekend. I don't live in a particularly dangerous area. Flooding risk is relatively low, except for the driveway, which could wash out.

My house is not in a place that's super hurricane or wildfire prone. However, you never know what might come along. I guess I should start drawing plans now.

For comic relief, here's that clip of the Big Bang Theory disaster drill:

National Hurricane Center Says They're Bracing For A Busy Season

Severe flooding in North Carolina last year from Hurricane
Matthew. The National Hurrican Center says this year
could be another busy hurricane season. 

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center   this morning said they are gearing up for a busier than normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.

Here's the scoop, straight from the source:

"Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 or higher) includig 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph of higher) An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes."

The official Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, though you can get some out of this season. We already had one tropical storm this year, Arlene last month.

Whether a potentially busy hurricane season badly affects the United States is still an open question. If we get these extra tropical storms and hurricanes, will many of them hit the coastline, or will most of them stay harmlessly out to sea?

Believe it or not, we still haven't had a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) make landfall in the United States in 12 year. That's a record long time.

However, as we well know, a hurricane doesn't have to be major, or cross the coastline to cause major trouble for us.

Last year, Major Hurricane Matthew stayed just offshore of Florida, and did not come ashore until it had weakened to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds in South Carolina.

Still, Matthew caused massive storm surge and river flooding in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, causing about $10 billion in damage in the United States and another $5 billion in the Caribbean.

We in Vermont remember Hurricane Irene in 2011, which was a tropical storm by the time it reached us but still caused what was easily one of the Top 5 worst flood disasters in Vermont history.

NOAA bases its 2017 forecast on several factors. During the hurricane season, El Nino, the periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to be weak or non-existent.

El Ninos increase upper air wind shear, which tears apart wannabe hurricanes. Also, water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are warmer than average. Warmer water tends to encourage tropical storms and hurricanes

Atlantic Hurricane Season Ramping Up

The National Hurricane Center is watching
two disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean that could
become tropical storms. The X's are where they were
Friday morning, and the yellow and orange shaded
areas indicate possible forecast paths for the disturbances.A

There's a couple areas of bad weather way out over the eastern Atlantic Ocean that have some potential to turn into tropical storms or hurricanes.

They may or may not, and even if they do, chances - so far anyway - indicate they won't hit the United States.

But the fact there are suddenly two areas out in that part of Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center is watching means we are now getting into the meat of the hurricane season.

Tropical storms can form almost anywhere in the Atlantic where the water temperature is warm enough. (These storms need very warm water to survive)

Once you get into August and September, though, potentially the most dangerous storms form.

During this time of year, weather disturbances move westward and emerge off the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic.

Some of these disturbances make a long journey westward, and a few of those take advantage of warm water and favorable atmospherics to become hurricanes. Since these storms are out over water for so long, they have plenty of time to develop.

These storms are called Cape Verde hurricanes because they originate near that area. If the Cape Verde hurricanes can hang together, and not get ripped apart by high winds in the upper reaches of the atmosphere, or curve northward as many do, the can cause real trouble for the United States.

Many of the worst hurricanes in American history were Cape Verde hurricanes. This includes a Florida hurricane in 1928 that killed more than 1,800 people, and the Great Long Island/New England hurricane of 1938 that killed more than 600 people.

Cape Verde hurricanes can strike the United States anywhere along the Atlantic Coast between Brownsville, Texas and Eastport, Maine.

If you live anywhere along the coast, now is the time to see if you've got the supplies or readiness to prepare your property for a hurricane. You don't want to start that if and when such a storm is already heading your way.

By the way, much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is toasty warm - warmer than normal. That is one factor that could make this year's Cape Verde hurricanes this year perhaps more frequent and stronger than they otherwise would be.

Plus, it's been a decade since a major hurricane has made landfall in the United States, so we're overdue. It's the roll of the dice.

Well-Prepared Bemuda Weathers Huge Hurricane Gonzalo Well

A guy enjoys the wind from Hurricane
Gonzalo as it approached Bermuda Friday afternoon.  

As you've seen on the news, Hurricane Gonzalo hit Bermuda hard on Friday night with gusts that might have reached as high as 144 mph on an exposed hillside location.

The official strongest winds at the Bermuda airport peaked at a sustained 93 mph with gusts to 113 mph.  See the video of the storm at the bottom of this post.

At last report, there were no deaths on the island. As you'd guess, damage was extensive, but not as bad as you'd expect, given the extreme winds.

After Hurricane Fabian slammed Bermuda in 2003, causing a huge disaster, buildings, roads and pretty much everything else were reinforced beyond even the strong structural codes in place before Fabian.

This time, with Gonzalo, the airport re-opened within 24 hours of Gonzalo's passage. Almost everybody lost electricity on the island and most roads were blocked by fallen trees, but they were cleaning things up Saturday.  

Wind and waves pick up on Bermuda Friday
as Hurricane Gonzalo approached.  

Most of the island's major hotels suffered only minor damage, but they remained opened and things are going along nicely there.

I saw a photo from storm chaser Jim Edds (@ExtremeStorms) who sat down for a nice hamburger and fries served to him at a hotel during the eye of the storm.

Storm preparedness works. Just look to Bermuda for Exhibit A.

One weird thing people saw on Bermuda during the highest winds of Gonzalo is that their toilets started to gurgle and drain.

According to David Mersereau, writing for The Vane, the high winds passing over plumbing roof vents caused little pockets of low pressure over the the top of the vents. The low pressure causes air inside the vent to rise into it to fill the vaccuum up at the top.

If that sucking air is strong enough, it can also draw water, making the toilets partly drain. The water returns to the toilet when the wind subsides, causing the low pressure at the top of the vent to go away.  

Here's that video montage of some scenes from Hurricane Gonzalo in Bermuda:

Touching, Important Video On Family Momentos Lost In Tornadoes, Storms

Those tornadoes that devastated huge swaths of the Midwest last month scattered photographs and other important papers and family mementos for miles, sometimes dozens or even hundreds of miles.

Photographs found scattered far and wide
in Oklahoma and nearby states after a big
May tornado in Moore, OK. A group worked to
return the photos to their owners.  

When disasters strike and people have to hastily evacuate, often the first thing they grab are the pictures.   Which is certainly understandable. I'd do the same thing. But often, there's no time to save them.

The worst part of a disaster like those tornadoes last month is when loved ones are hurt or killed.

The second worst part is when those photographic memories and touchstones are lost.

Meteorologist Eric Holthaus has a great idea or reminder that nowadays, you can put your photos in "The Cloud" as they say, so they are kept off site and accessible pretty much no matter what happens.

I also love that there's a Facebook page that acts as a clearing house for people who find photographs and documents scattered far and wide by the tornadoes. That way, some of them can get back to their owners.

There have been other, similar, wonderful efforts after a series of tornadoes across the South in 2011 and the twisters in Oklahoma earlier this year. 

Most of the photos are damaged, but nowadays you can restore a lot of them.

Holthaus also today linked to a wonderful YouTube video that is a tribute to the tornado victims in the Midwest and is a music video for Laura Marier's really great song called "Running For Photographs"

Here's the moving, must watch video: