S. Carolina Flood: How It Happened, Climate Change, Warnings And Stupidity.

Water rescues near Columbia, South Carollina.
From WISTV.com  

The South Carolina flood that we've all been hearing about might be the nation's biggest disaster of 2015, and that's saying something.

After all, different parts of the country have endured intense droughts, huge wildfires, other major floods and storms. But South Carolina, where over two feet of rain fell in some areas, is in a class by itself.  

According to the Weather Channel, at least 11 deaths have been reported, there were at least 150 water rescues, 535 South Carolina roads and bridges are closed and 19 dams have been breached.

Larger rivers are still causing flood havoc in South Carolina this morning, even though the epic rains that caused the flooding have ended. This ain't over yet.

This was truly one of the most notorious, historic floods I've seen.

HOW IT HAPPENED

More water rescues in South Carolina. Photo by
Colin Duncan via WISTV.com  

Hurricane Joaquin was only a bit player in the meteorological drama that set up South Carolina's deadly flooding.

An area of low pressure, not a tropical storm, settled into the southeastern United States toward the end of last week, and then sat there.

This storm system drew in a big stream of super wet tropical air from the Atlantic Ocean.

One of the southeastern storm's tentacles reached all the way southeastward to Hurricane Joaquin, which was completely trashing many of the Bahama islands at the time.

The "atmospheric river" of moisture fed into an area of rising air that is fairly common to the northeast of the type of storm that was parked over the Southeast. This river was a string of thunderstorms that stayed in place for three days, repeatedly socking South Carolina with the torrential downpours.

This was made even worse by the fact that strong winds blew the storms and the moisture onshore, and overhead, upper level winds sort of fanned apart. This is known as a diffluence.

This meant there was air was being dispersed away from South Carolina far overhead. The atmosphere always seeks equilibrium, so air rose over the state to replace the upper level air being whisked away. Rising air leads to clouds and rain.

Inside a flooded South Carolina house. Photo by
Mike Buol via WISTV.com  

Since this diffluence in the upper atmosphere was strong, so were the updrafts. These strong updrafts further enhanced the rain.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang has an awesome more detailed explanation of the meteorological factors that came together to cause this disaster.

The best part is you don't have to be a scientist to understand all this. Capital Weather Gang appeals to non-hard core geeks too.  

In addition, according to Capital Weather Gang, this South Carolina disaster might be an example of something called a predecessor rain event or PRE. (Further analysis is needed to make a firm assessment of this.)

PRE's are areas of heavy rain north of hurricanes that are distinct from these tropical storms but still indirectly tied to them, says Capital Weather Gang.

PRE's caused big flooding ahead of Hurricane Frances in 2004 around New York City and in the Midwest north of Tropical Storm Erin in 2007, for example.

DID CLIMATE CHANGE DO THIS?

Climate change was almost certainly not the sole cause of the South Carolina flood calamity, as noted above in the meteorological explanation of the storm.

However, but evidence suggests global warming contributed to this mess.

There have always been extreme rains and terrible flash floods, with or without global warming. The problem is, climate change makes such events more likely and more intense.

A business destroyed by the flood in Columbia,
South Carolina. Via WISTV.com  

Warmer air often holds more water vapor. More water vapor means more moisture is available for storms. When one gets going, the rain will be more intense than it otherwise would have been, had the atmosphere been cooler.

This means that some storms that might have in the past caused a so-so flood now causes a really nasty one.

We've seen a lot of unusually intense flash floods in recent years. This year alone, epic and deadly floods have hit places like Kentucky, Houston, Oklahoma City and Utah.

This weekend, while South Carolina was drowning, the French Riviera had its own catastrophic flood, which killed at least 19 people. 

According to the 2014 National Climate Assessment heavy precipitation events have increased by about 40 percent across the nation since 1900.

South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley described the flood as a 1,000 year event. Which is technically true. Given normal climate such a flood has a 0.1 percent chance of happening in any given year.

However, the United States has had no fewer than six 1,000 year flood events since 2010, according to USA Today. (This includes the epic Hurricane Irene flood that hit my home state of Vermont in 2011.) This is more evidence climate change is likely screwing around with precipitation.

Another culprit in the South Carolina disaster was unusually record or near record warm Atlantic Ocean waters off the East Coast.

As noted climate scientist Michael Mann tells Bradblog:

"Part of the story - and don't let anyone tell you otherwise - was record heat in the Atlantic, which means there was record moisture off the coast. And it's that record level of moisture in the atmosphere giving us these record levels of rainfall."

Ocean temperatures were also at record highs in the Bahamas as Hurricane Joachin trudged through the area. The high water temperatures were one reason why Joachin got a lot stronger than most meteorologists forecasted. (Another reason for Joachin's strength was unexpectedly favorable upper level winds.)

A flooded South Carolina business.  

A stronger Joachin might have loaded in more moisture for the fire hose of water directed at South Carolina over the weekend.

Less certain is whether the meteorlogical set up for the storm was related to climate change.

Does global warming increase the liklihood of stalled storms like the one over the Southeast this weekend? Does climate change mess around with jet stream dynamics, making storms like the one in South Carolina worse?

I'm sure scientists will be looking into it. I don't have a good answer at this point.

STUPIDITY:

As always with floods, the South Carolina disaster brought out the heroics in some people, stupidity in others.

While most people headed South Carolina Emergency Management's plea for people who were in safe places to stay put, some ventured out.

One annoying thing I saw on social media is that businesses insisted on opening, despite the dangerous weather. That put their employees in danger as they felt forced to drive to work amid the high threat of flash flooding.

Hey, who cares if an employee or two dies as long as there's money to be made, right?

Even more appalling were the people who insisted on driving into clearly dangerous high water. Hey, I'll make it, I've got an SUV!!

Yeah, right pal.

I got a couple video examples as proof.

The guy in the first of the two videos you'll see below infuriates me. What was he thinking?  The water was clearly deep, flowing fast and getting worse. So he attempts to drive through it anyway.

This necessitated a good Samaritan to risk his life, rescuers to risk their lives to fish this guy out. And it's not as if first responders were twiddling their thumbs waiting for something to do. They were already responding to TONS of calls to rescue people from flooded homes, and other washed away cars.

Watch:




The next guy made it through, too, but geez. He put a lot of people in danger, and less importantly, I'm sure his employer was thrilled that he almost destroyed the cargo in his tractor trailer:

As Expected, Epic Flood Underway In The Carolinas

Just the beginning. Flooding increasing last
evening in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Photo
from MyrtleBeachonline.  

Hurricane Joaquin has certainly been unpredictable, with all the different scenarios we ran through all week on where it might or might not make landfall.

As of this morning Joaquin was finally starting to move north away from the Bahamas, after crushing many of those islands with winds of over 100 mph for two days.

There's a lot of damage down there no doubt from wind, storm surges and flooding.

Certainly a big, sad disaster for the Bahamas.

At least now we know where Joaquin is going, which fortunately out to sea well east of the United States. Because we have enough of our own problems with weather in the good ol' U.S of A anyway.

Unlike Joaquin, what has been consistent for days now has been the forecasts for epic flooding in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

That forecast of terrible flooding sure was coming true this morning.

Widespread flash flood and flood warnings were in effect for the Carolinas early this morning and the rain continued to pour down intensely. Things will undoubtedly worsen as the day goes on today.

Early this morning, all traffic was banned from the penninsula that houses Charleston, South Carolina because of the widespread flooding.

(Charleston residents probably knew this would get bad, not only because of the warnings before the storm, but also because The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore showed up in town. When he's around, you know the weather is going to get very, very bad.)

There have already been reports of over ten inches of rain in the Carolinas. Forecasts continue to say more than 20 inches could fall in some spots. Other forecasts call for a foot of rain in parts of South Carolina just today.

Television station WLTX in Columbia, South Carolina said residents in much of the area around that state are bracing for the worst flooding in at least 125 years. Gov. Nikki Haley is among several governors who have declared states of emergency.

Haley is already urging people to leave low lying areas, and is also telling people to pretty much not drive anywhere this weekend.

Overnight and this morning, the storm system in the Southeast was siphoning moisture straight from Hurricane Joaquin and spraying it as if it were a giant fire house into South Carolina and on into central North Carolina.

The deep tropical moisture and the storm system will linger in the Southeast all weekend so these heavy rains will continue. 

A house in Bermuda was swept away
by Hurricane Joaquin. 

Further north into Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey, it won't rain as hard as it will in the Carolinas, but the problem there will be coastal flooding.

The contrast between strong high pressure over Quebec and low pressure over the Southeast will continue the strong east winds that are pushing water into the coast.

Usually, when there's a coastal flood on the East Coast, it's usually maybe just two high tide cycles that cause the problem.

But this is lasting FOREVER. It started in earnest yesterday, and each high tide through the weekend will bring flooding. The repeated battering from the Atlantic Ocean will cause massive beach erosion. And the repeated high water with each tide cycle is going to cause more and more damage to shoreline buildings and roads.

So this is really a disastrous weekend. Things should get better for everyone early next week, but the extreme damage will have been done.

Some people have asked if global warming is causing all this extreme weather. Those kinds of questions always pop up in big storms, and that's a good thing.

The best I can do is speculate that global warming might, just might have had an influence, but obviously wasn't the sole cause of all this trouble.

Let's break it down:

Hurricane Joaquin was stronger than forecast, having fed off record high water temperatures near Bermuda. The record high ocean temperatures are consistent with global warming, so there's that. Maybe Joaquin was stronger than it would have otherwise been without climate change.

However, there have been hurricanes this strong in the region in the past.

The epic flooding in the Southeast is also consistent with global warming, in that precipitation events are likely to become more extreme as the climate changes. Again, I won't say climate change is causing the flood disaster in the Southeast, but there's a chance it contributed.

In terms of the coastal flooding further north, I have no idea if the high tides themselves were influenced by climate change. But sea levels have been rising as ice caps melt, so if the sea level is a bit higher to begin with, then the coastal flooding we're getting now is probably worse than it would have been under similar weather patterns decades ago.

Joaquin Likely Heading Out To Sea; U.S. Is Screwed Anyway

Powerful Hurricane Joaquin has been battering the Bahamas
for more than a day now. Here it is this morning still
smashing the islands. 

Powerful Hurricane Joaquin battered the Bahamas for a good 24 hours or more since yesterday with 130 mph winds, so it's a huge disaster there.

Reports from the islands are still sketchy, since the storm is still raging, but there are no immediate reports of deaths, which is good. 

But the destruction has to be immense, and imagine being in winds of 100 mph or more for a day or so, not just a couple hours. 

So scary and I hope everyone in the Bahamas comes through this OK.

Meanwhile, up in the United States, people are breathing something of a sigh of relief since most computer models now keep Joaquin well offshore.

There's still a slight chance Joaquin could clip Cape Cod or Nova Scotia but the threat of a huge direct hit is over.

You'd think this is terrific news, and it is, since the East Coast will escape the possibility of getting slammed by a full-throttle major hurricane.

But overall, the news isn't good.

Meteorologists are still expecting an epic flood in the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states from a separate storm that will in part be fueled by moisture siphoned off of Hurricane Joaquin.

This isn't going to be your standard issue flood. It'll probably be a lot worse. One computer model predicts a whopping 18 inches of rain to come down on part of South Carolina.

I'm not sure there will be that much, but it's certainly plausible. I think we'll easily see over a foot of rain in some areas. Local forecasters said several Carolina cities will break records for their wettest Octobers, and do that in just that first five days of the month.

A strong pressure gradient between a very strong high pressure system over Quebec and the Carolina storms and Joaquin will make things worse. A strong pressure gradient just means there's a big difference in air pressure over a given area, in this case, the East Coast.

When there's a strong pressure gradient, there's a lot of wind. And since the wind is from the east, and extending over a wide expanse of the Atlantic Ocean, it's pushing a lot of water toward the coast.

That means there's going to be a lot of coastal flooding. Since this weather pattern will hold in place through the weekend, that means repeated bouts of flooding high tides and beach erosion. To make it worse, many coastal areas in the Mid-Atlantic states are under high wind warnings and watches.

Places were rivers meet the oceans are really in trouble. The east winds will try to push water upstream and inland, while great gushes of water from the heavy rains try to come downstream. Where the two meet on these rivers will cause incredible floods.

With all this going on, states of emergency are already in effect in several states, including the Carolinas and New Jersey.

Joaquin will miss the U.S. mainland, but this could still be a billion dollar disaster in terms of flooding and wind and high tides along the East Coast.

Here's a brief video of how Joaquin looked on Crooked Island, Bahamas:

Thursday Morning Joaquin Update: Bahamas Screwed, East Coast Worries

Thursday morning visible satellite view of
major Hurricane Joaquin trashing the Bahamas. 

Hurricane Joaquin continued to strengthen steadily yesterday and overnight and now it's a powerhouse major hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph.

It could strengthen a little more today as it pounds the Bahamas. It's going to be a terrible disaster for them. A slow moving, major hurricane is shredding those islands today.

For the U.S. East Coast, the future of Joaquin is still totally uncertain, and there seems to be some major shifts going on in its forecast track.

I do know Joaquin is evolving into something very, very different than we thought several days ago.

Before we get into the details, three important things:

1. Anyone in the Bahamas should already have gotten their hurricane preparations done. This is going to be a terrible disaster there, with extreme wind damage, giant storm surges and torrential rain.

Yes, I know predictions of forecast tracks of
hurricanes looks a little like this, but the
science of understanding everything about hurricanes
like Joaquin is still ot fully formed.  

2. The forecast for the Mid-Atlantic concerning Joaquin is more uncertain than ever, but what is certain is the area from North Carolina to southern New Jersey is in for torrential rains between now and Monday, no matter what Joaquin does. Expect some major flooding

3. Everybody along the coast from North Carolina all the way up through New England and southeastern Canada ought to keep a close eye on Joaquin.

It's a dangerous storm and there's a chance anybody in these areas could get clobbered. Plus, again with or without Joaquin, most of these areas are in for several days of high tides and beach erosion.

OK, so yesterday all of us weather geeks were talking about the European computer forecasting model, which was telling us Joaquin would stay out to sea and avoid the United States.

Most of the other models turned Joaquin northwestward and had it smashing into the coast somewhere between North Carolina and southern New Jersey.

This morning, the computer forecasting models, fed with oodles of new data provided by a bunch of weather balloon launches, satellite analysis and other cool nerdy stuff, have decided the European model might have been on to something.

That doesn't necessarily mean the Euro was completely right, which presents a serious conundrum for the East Coast. Maybe Joaquin won't go nearly as far east as the Euro was suggesting. For what it's worth, since Monday, the European has been a little better at forecast Joaquin's track than most other models, but that doesn't always mean it will stay correct.

Flooding in Portland, Maine Wednesday. I pretty
much guarantee similar scenes from the Mid-Atlantic
states over the weekend, with or without Joaquin

Some of the models are still insisting Joaquin will smash into North Carolina or Virginia.

Others have a dangerous hurricane heading into heavily populated Long Island and southern New England. Still others have it clipping Cape Cod, while others have it plowing into southeastern Canada.

If it heads north, the winds will weaken with Joaquin as it hits cooler ocean water and strong upper level winds, but it would still be a formidable threat.

The bottom line: Keep watching this thing. If you have coastal property anywhere between North Carolina and southeastern Canada,  batten down the hatches and be ready for coastal flooding and severe beach erosion starting now and lasting through the weekend.

If you're in the Middle Atlantic States, be ready for nasty flooding well in advance of Joaquin, starting today.  Remember, this flooding is going to happen even if Joaquin stays 1,000 miles away.

For thr rest of the East Coast, it is frustrating that still nobody knows where Joaquin will go. That's the nature of hurricane forecasting. Predicting these things has gotten a LOT better in recent years, but we still have much more to learn to forecast these things more accurately and much more in advance.

Wednesday Evening Update: Joaquin And The Euro

Strengthening Hurricane Joaquin Wednesday afternoon
with sustained winds of 85 mph. 

The talented guys and gals at the National Hurricane Center must be pulling their hair out, if they have any left.

They're struggling with battling forecast models on what the future of Hurricane Joaquin is going to be.  

Plus, the stakes are high: Joaquin could cause a HUGE disaster somewhere on the U.S. East Coast if it makes landfall there, which it well might.

PLUS, at this point, with such an uncertain forecast, when and how does the National Hurricane Center basically press the button and issue warnings for the United States, and how do you do it without causing either panic or complacency?

PLUS PLUS, There's already dangerous weather occuring and brewing on the East Coast, whether or not Joaquin arrives or not. One batch of torrential rain is exiting the northeastern United States, causing patches of nasty flooding in spots from the Gulf Coast of Alabama to Downeast Maine.

More bouts of flooding rains are due along the East Coast, again, with or without Joaquin, over the coming days. If people have to prepare for a hurricane how best to do it amid very inclement weather, or worse, weather that is already causing a disaster?

PLUS PLUS PLUS: Most forecasting models want to forecast Hurricane Joaquin to make landfall somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey.

The outlyer in this is the European model, Euro for short. It's usually quite reliable. You might remember the Euro as the one that told us that Hurricane Sandy would take a sharp left turn and hit New Jersey. The Euro told us this days before it would happen, and during a time when most of the other forecasting models said Sandy would cruise by off the coast and we shouldn't think it was a big deal.

Of course, Sandy was a big, BIG deal.

Now, The Euro is arguing with many of the forecasting models again. The Euro keeps Joaquin well off the coast, and has it heading northeastward out to sea instead of hitting the United States.

Yes, the Euro is reliable. But it doesn't mean it's right this time. Nobody knows whether its right or not.

The National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center is trying to get as much data as possible on weather patterns. In fact they're going through extreme efforts. The more data the forecasting computer models have, the better the chances they'll come up with an accurate forecast.

Hurricane hunter planes have been buzzing Joaquin. Local National Weather Service offices in the eastern half of the United States have been frantically launching weather balloons, so we can get data upwind from the hurricane, to see how the trough of low pressure and weather fronts and such will affect Joaquin's motion.

Most of the computer models think the big trough of low pressure, which is a big dip in the jet stream over the East Coast, will grab Joachin and suck him north and west toward the East Coast.

The Euro model is noticing Joaquin is currently headed toward the southwest, with his eye on the Bahamas. Apparently, the Euro thinks Joaquin will dip far enough south that it will be out of reach from the pesky trough further north over the eastern United States.

Instead a frontal system and the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida would pull Joaquin toward the northeast and way from the United States, the Euro is thinking.

Don't ask me or anybody else to read the minds of these murky computer models. All we can do is let forecasters keep crunching the data, and maybe by tomorrow we'll have a better guess on where Joaquin is going. Maybe.

The bottom line: If Joaquin misses, parts of the eastern United States are in for some major flooding regardless of missing out on a hurricane.

If Joaquin hits, we're in for a major natural disaster.

If you're anywhere in the eastern United States, especially from southern New England to the Carolinas, you really, really want to keep an eye on this.

With Or Without Joaquin, East Coast In For A Flood

Visible satellite view of Hurricane Joaquin this morning
It could threaten the increasingly soggy East Coast Monday. 

The first round of torrential downpours is crossing the Northeast,  having trekked from the Gulf Coast through the Mid-Atlantic States and on into New England.

Flood alerts are up. This is the first wave of what promises to be several waves of dangerous downpours for much of the eastern United States. Beware, this could be scary in spots.

Yesterday, I said that things were totally uncertain and there was a mix of hype and genuine forecasting concern out there.

That's still true today, but things are a little more in focus now. Still, expect big changes in the forecasts in the coming days, with various areas coming under threat from floods at different times.

Hurricane Joaquin is going to enter the picture. We don't know exactly what effect he'll have on this mess. But whether or not the hurricane ultimately comes ashore on the East Coast or stays well off the coast, there's still going to be a bunch of rain. And I mean a BUNCH!

These flooding threats over the next week or so are going to hit some of the most populated areas of the nation. I wouldn't be surprised, if some of the forecasting models are right, that this has the potential to be a billion dollar disaster, given the huge area of the country under threat from the downpours.

I don't think I've ever seen computer models forecast seven or more inches of rain over several days in one, 1,000 mile stretch of the nation. But I've seen it this time.

TODAY

The first wave of rain caused flooding Monday in the Mobile, Alabama area and in the Florida Panhandle. Tuesday, parts of the mid-Atlantic states were targeted, especially western Virginia.

Today, the focus of heavy rain is across New England and eastern New York. More than four inches of rain might fall in some areas, especially Maine, parts of New Hampshire, the southern half of Vermont and northern Massachusetts.

Already, Burlington, Vermont had had a storm total of 2.78 inches as of 8 a.m. Wednesday,  It was still raining steadily there.

Even though New England had a dry September up until now, there is a real threat of flooding today.  Nothing like Hurricane Irene in 2011, for sure, but still something to be careful about. Already, flood warnings were flying for much of western New Hampshire and southwestern Maine as of 8 a.m.

NEXT UP

The focus then shift south of the Mid Atlantic states, possibly as far north as southern New England as a stalled front, tropical moisture moving north and a strong high pressure system from the north feeds in gusty Atlantic air from the east.

The potential for heavy rain over the next couple of days, into Saturday have little to do with Joaquin, which will still be drifting vaguely toward the United States, but still east of the Bahamas.

The U.S. rains later this week and into the weekend are called a "predecessor" storm. Often along the East Coast, before a hurricane, the weather pattern features fronts and moisture that slam certain areas with flooding rains.

The devil is in the details here, as we don't know where the focus of heaviest rain will be, but somewhere between North Carolina and Maryland, at least half a foot of rain could come down between Thursday and Saturday. A few computer models forecast a FOOT of rain.

This would lead to flooding, obviously, since it's already rained hard there the past couple days. If things come together just right, the flooding could be particularly severe and disastrous in some areas.

Again, stay tuned.

THEN THERE"S JOAQUIN

Formerly weak Tropical Storm Joaquin strengthened robustly overnight and as of 8 a.m. was a Category 1 hurricane with top sustained winds of 75 mph.  .

During El Nino years, which we have now, strong upper level winds tend to rip apart nascent tropical storms in the Atlantic and we've seen that over and over this year. 

Various computer models are a little more focused
on Joaquin's future track than yesterday. Many
bring the hurricane into the U.S. East Coast
but there's still no guarantee that will happen.

This time, the upper level winds are relaxing in a small part of the Atlantic. The part where Joaquin is. So it can strengthen.

Also, in general, the warmer the water, the better chance a tropical storm has of strengthening.

Water temperatures are at record high levels east of the Bahamas, which again happens to be right where Joaquin is hanging out.

Joaquin is taking full advantage of that and it will almost surely strengthen today. 

The next question is, What's Joaquin up to after drifting slowly on vacation slowly westward or southwestward east  of the Bahamas the next few days.

Well, eventually, the stalled front and big trough of low pressure causing all those flood problems on the East Coast will pick it up and fling Joaquin northward.

But exactly where? Things are a little more clear with Joaquin's path than yesterday, but they're still very uncertain. Joaquin could move northeastward, off the coast. That would fling some moisture back into the already wet East Coast storminess and make the flooding that much worse, but it wouldn't be a worst case scenario.

Other computer models take Joaquin and have it come ashore, maybe Monday somewhere in the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic Coast. That would be a HUGE disaster, given the wind, the storm surge and especially the inland flooding that result in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

As a side note, you might remember that in 2012, the European computer model, well in advance, told us Superstorm Sandy would hit the U.S. East Coast while the other models said it would miss.

Well, the European model was famously right and warned us well in advance.

This time, the European takes Joaquin far out to sea while many of the other forecasting models have the  hurricane hitting the coast.

Just because the European model was right with Sandy doesn't mean it will be right with Joaquin. Residents should still start preparing for a possible hurricane. But it will be interesting to see what happens.

The idea of Joaquin coming ashore is a scary scenario, but we just don't know if it's going to happen yet. Keep an eye on it. You'll see updates everywhere, including in this blog thingy.

Meanwhile, if you're anywhere in the eastern United States, keep an ear to forecasts. If there's any kind of flood warning, do what they advise. If they say evacuate now, do it. Now.

Every time there's a flood, people also drive onto flooded roads and get stuck. Or worse, washed away. I have no idea why people ignore the "Turn Around, Don't Drown slogan.

Please, don't be an idiot.

And we'll keep an eye on this weather event, which is pretty wild, if you ask me.