Saturday, August 5, 2017

Some Severe Weather Today; Atlantic Tropics Bubbling

Brief funnel cloud over Potsdam, New York Friday during
a severe thunderstorm. Via Richard O'Hanlon on Twitter.
The theme of today's post is "As Expected."
Up here in New England, a cold front is coming in today, as expected. 

And, as expected, there is a chance of some severe thunderstorms, though I don't think they will be widespread.

There were scattered severe thunderstorms in New York State yesterday, but nothing major in Vermont. That was also pretty much as expected.

The timing of the cold front is such that the best chance of strong to locally severe thunderstorms this afternoon is from the Green Mountains east, and in southern New England. This is in line with what forecasters were thinking yesterday. So yes, as expected.

By the way, this won't be a mega-outbreak of severe weather. There will probably be just a few reports. Most of you who actually get a thunderstorm won't get anything too traumatic. And I'm sure several places won't get thunder at all.

We'll clear up tonight, and Sunday is going to be largely sunny and cool-ish.

Meanwhile, hurricane enthusiasts are watching the tropical Atlantic Ocean, as things seem to be coming to life there. It's August, and tropical storm chances usually ramp up about now. So yeah, say it with me: As expected.

They're watching two areas: One in the central Caribbean, the other way out over the eastern Atlantic.

Nobody is really sure if either of these two systems will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane. If they do, nobody is sure whether they will hit land anywhere. That - ugh, is to be expected. You usually can't tell what a wannabe tropical storm will do before it develops.

So ignore those people on line who take one of dozens of forecasting models, an outlier, that shows one of these things developing into a monster hurricane hitting the U.S.  That's just clickbait. People trying to get attention and possibly money.

Don't worry about either wannabe tropical system unless and until the National Hurricane Center gets a handle on how they will develop and where they will go. They'll issue warnings and alerts if need be.

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