Tropical Storms Gordon, Florence and Floods All Loom Today

That patch of clouds over South Florida is Tropical
Storm Gorden. It's a threat to the northern Gulf
Coast later Tuesday.

It's kind of a busy Labor Day in the weather department so let's get right to, um, work.

Tropical Storms Gordon and Florence are on this weather geek's mind, as is more Midwest flooding and Northeast heat. Let's take them one at a time, starting with the most immediate problem.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON

The tropical storm formed this morning around the southern tip of Florida.

We knew this would happen sooner or later, as all day yesterday a disturbance coming in from the east of Florida kept showing signs of better organization. Plus, weather models all screamed that a tropical storm would form.

And it has. It's a gusty, wet morning in South Florida, and this thing poses a threat to the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday night.

It will head toward the northwest and probably come ashore somewhere around Mississippi or Louisiana later Tuesday.

The biggest threat from this is heavy rain and flooding. Especially since the area it's going to hit just experienced a very wet storm system that likely would have itself been a tropical storm  had it not formed so close to the coast and then come to shore almost immediately.

Flooding is pretty much inevitable in from southern Mississippi to Texas and possibly beyond because of this.

Gordon won't have much time to be over open water to strengthen before it makes landfall, which could save the Gulf Coast from getting hit by a full blown hurricane. There are some things that worry me a bit, though.

Tropical Storm Gordon formed a little earlier than many expected, so now it has more time to strengthen. It looks really well organized in satellite images. The waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, and upper level winds aren't strong. Tropical storms that want to strengthen love light upper level winds.

All this raises the possibility that Gordon could strengthen more than is currently forecast, so that's something to watch.

The remnants of Gordon will eventually end up in the middle of the United States, which is bad, because they've already had tons of rain and flooding there. I'll get into this later in this post.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE

Various potential path of Tropical Storm Florence. Some
take it away from the United States, some don't. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Florence continues to spin way out in the central Atlantic Ocean. It's currently not anywhere near a threat to any land areas.

Maximum sustained winds are around 60 mph.  It's not going to strengthen any time soon, because the water beneath it isn't all that warm. You need very warm water to strengthen tropical storms.

Plus, upper level winds are fairly strong over Florence and will probably remain that way for the next few days. Several days from now, Florence will reach warmer waters and lighter upper level winds, so it could eventually strengthen into a hurricane.

At first, forecasters were pretty sure that Florence would turn north and never be any threat to land, and especially pose no threat to the East Coast.

Now that's been called a bit into question. The most likely scenario is still that it will turn north and miss the East Coast of the United States by a wide margin.

However, a few computer models suggest that persistent northward bulge in the jet stream over New England and southeastern Canada might have an influence. There's a slight chance this ridge will extend further east and extend out to the northeast of Florence.

If that were to happen, the northward turn Florence wants to do would be blocked, and it would have no choice but to continue drifting westward toward the East Coast. As I said, it's an unlikely scenario, but it could happen.

THE FLOODING GRINDS ON

Flooding in Wisconsin. Photo from CBS

As has been the case for the last few days, another wave of torrential thunderstorms got going in Kansas yesterday and marched across Nebraska and especially Iowa.

As a result, flash flood and flood warnings are more widespread today in this region than they were yesterday.

This worsening trend in the flooding will probably continue today.  Flash flood watches extend from Kansas, across eastern Nebraska and much of Iowa today.

Weather systems aren't moving much, so that corridor of wet and unstable air will keep flowing over the area today. To me, Iowa seems to be the most problematic area today.

The stalled weather front causing this Midwest mess will lift northward and northwestward as a warm front tomorrow. Iowa and parts of eastern Nebraska will remain under the gun, but the threat of flooding will most likely be concentrated in northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin.

Wisconsin had its second wettest August on record and has had repeated bouts of flooding, so tomorrow's scenario looks especially ugly.

A cold front will start to suppress the deep moisture south starting Wednesday, so the threat of flooding will start to diminish. The wild card is the remnants of Tropical Storm Gorden. That storm could eventually push the moisture back north, renewing the flood threat.

By the way, it's possible Gorden's remnants could come near Vermont eventually, dropping much-needed rain. That's wishcasting and not forecasting at this point. We can only hope.

NORTHEAST HEAT

Web cam image from Interstate 89 in Milton, Vermont this morning
shows dry grass from dry conditons on another hot day. Clouds in
the background hint at instability and the possibility of
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. 

The end is finally in sight for the persistent heat over New England, but it's going to take awhile. Monday through Wednesday look hot and humid, which could lead to some record high temperatures.

Today is bad in Vermont. It's wicked humid, and temperatures will get well into the 80s this afternoon. Yuck.

A cluster of thunderstorms passed north of the Vermont border across southern Quebec early this morning.

An outflow of air from this complex might well trigger some thunderstorms north of Route 2 in Vermont this afternoon. Not everybody will get them, but a few storms will have torrential rains, dangerous lightning and gusty winds.

Heck, we need the rain, so these storms might be worth it.

A weak front will briefly and slightly cool the air across northern New England Tuesday, but not by much. That won't reach southern New England, where record highs are likely Tuesday.

Wednesday looks horrid, too, with very heavy humidity and highs well into the 80s and 90s. Record highs are again possible across New England, including Vermont.

A cold front will finally, slowly push into New England Thursday, and it continues to look like we'll have some autumnal weather in New England this coming weekend.