Today Is Peak Of Hurricane Season. This Year, It REALLY Is

Today's satellite snapshot of Hurricane Florence depicts a
menacing, strengthening, dangerous storm. 

Today, September 10, is often regarded as the exact peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. If you're going to have hurricanes, this is the date they are probably most likely.

This year, today, we've got three of them: Florence, Helene and Isaac. All full-fledged hurricanes.

Obviously, Florence is the one everybody really has their eyes on because it's such a threat to the East Coast. But we'll break things down one by one.

I'll get into Florence in a minute, but first, some more local weather for today:

EX-GORDON

The remains of Tropical Storm Gordon remain embedded in a storm system that was around Pennslyvania this morning. Much of that state is under flood warnings due to the heavy rain with this system. It's been a terrible summer in Pennsylvania. Every time I turn around, there's another flood there.

One example: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has had about 47 inches of rain so far this year. That's about 19 inches more than they should have had by now.

Luckily for Pennsylvania, Ex-Gordon should start to move out of Pennsylvania later today. Luckily for us Vermonters, Ex-Gordon still looks like it's going to hit us later today and tonight.

We so desperately need the rain, and this will be a good one. Instead of short, sharp bursts of torrential rain we've had in scattered thunderstorms all summer, this storm will involve at least 12 consecutive hours of steady light to moderate rain.

That's the kind of rain that soaks into the ground nicely. Most of us here in Vermont can expect one to two inches of rain, with locally more in southern Vermont.

Enjoy the rain while you can. Despite this storm, we're still in the overall pattern we've had all summer, with a high pressure ridge in the upper atmosphere near or over us. After the rain tapers off Tuesday morning, expect no more precipitation at least through Sunday.

FLORENCE MENACES

Hurricane Florence, as expected, was rapidly intensifying this morning. Top sustained winds were at 105 mph early this morning, but those are expected to go up to a terrifying 150 mph by Wednesday.

The expected path of Florence hasn't changed much since yesterday, and at the moment, North Carolina seems to be in Florence's crosshairs. The path could still shift to the north or south before we get to Thursday, when the hurricane is expected to make landfall.

Most forecasters expect Florence to still be a major, dangerous hurricane by the time it reaches North Carolina or thereabouts. There is a chance strong upper level winds could weaken Florence just before it reaches shore, but that won't matter much.

Sure, weakening, if it happens, will reduce wind damage somewhat. But the principal threat from Florence, and any other landfalling hurricane for that matter, is a coastal storm surge and inland flooding.

Weakening might or might not happen, but either way, coastal areas will see severe storm surges. Florence is also still expected to slow down or stall once it gets inland a bit, which will trigger massive amounts of rain with potentially catastrophic flooding.

People in the Carolinas are already preparing for this mess, as well they should be. Things are not looking good.

HURRICANE HELENE

Helene is expected to be comparatively well behaved. It's way out over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, with top winds of about 85 mph. Happily, Helene is expected to turn toward due north, far away from any major land areas. Once it goes north Helene will weaken and die by next week over colder North Atlantic waters. Buh-bye!

WILDCARD ISAAC

Hurricane Isaac, with top winds of 75 mph, is expected to strengthen, at least temporarily as it heads due west toward the Lesser Antilles islands and eventually the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters are prett confident that Isaac will keep heading nearl due west, but nobody can agree on whether it will strengthen or weaken, or when any of those trends might happen.

Isaac is small in size, so it's prone to rapid changes in intensity. Many computer models have it weakening to a tropical storm once it's in the Caribbean. Other models turn it into a monster. We'll see how that goes.

On top of all this, Hurricane Olivia is still threatening Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean. And a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico might or might not develop into something in the coming days.

Florence And All Kinds Of Tropical Threats

Busy satellite map of the Atlantic. Click on the image to make it
bigger and easier to see. From left to right: Mass of clouds over
Midwest is former Tropical Storm Gordon The yellow X is
a disturbance that's not expected to amount to much. Then
we have Florence, then soon-to-be Tropical Storm Isaac,
then Tropical Storm Helene near the African coast. 

You'll have to forgive me, but this blog will be mostly about tropical storms and hurricanes for awhile as the peak of hurricane season has hit with a vengeance.

It was supposed to be a quiet year for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, but for the time being, it's most certainly not.

There's all kinds of things to talk about. The eastern Pacific Ocean is a mess, too, with tropical storms and hurricanes buzzing around.

So let's get to it with our Saturday update:

EX-TROPICAL STORM GORDON

As I expected, the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon is causing a LOT more trouble than it did when it was an actual tropical storm along the Gulf Coast several days ago.

The former Gordon is dumping horrible amounts of rain in the Midwest, and this trend will continue big time today. A weather front associated with ex-Gordon is spreading downpours into the already soggy Middle Atlantic states too. This is bad, because that could be setting the stage for cataclysmic flooding if Hurricane Florence comes along later next week. (More on that in a minute.)

There's a high risk of flooding in parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio today, which is the top level alert put out by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center when it assesses flood risks.

Four to eight inches of rain is expected today in much of this region, which has had repeated bouts of downpours over the past few weeks. Flooding is basically inevitable, and it could easily become severe and life threatening.

Gordon's flood threat will likely extend more into Ohio and Pennsylvania tomorrow. 

As noted yesterday, Ex-Gordon will actually be good for us here in Vermont. Forecasters are hopeful that it will dump one to two inches of rain on the drought landscape of central and northern Vermont Monday and Monday night.

The storm could also cause some gusty winds along the west slopes of the Green Mountains. That might cause a couple branches and maybe an isolated power failure or two, but with the rain, it will be worth it.

HURRICANE FLORENCE

As noted yesterday, high upper level winds did a number on Hurricane Florence, reducing it to a sloppy mess of a tropical storm with top winds of only 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Florence this morning. After being torn into a mess
 by upper level winds over the past couple of days, the storm
is now looking more symmetrical, a sign that it will soon
restrengthen, possibly rapidly. 

Those upper level winds are easing this morning, and Florence is definitely reviving, according to this morning's statement from the National Hurricane Center. 

Strong thunderstorms near the core of the storm are growing, and Florence is getting more organized again. It will almost certainly be a hurricane again by tomorrow.

Florence is heading westward into a zone with light upper level winds and hot ocean water. This is a perfect environment for hurricanes and Florence is expected to intensify quickly.

It could even achieve Category 5 status - the strongest and most dangerous hurricane type possible.

Which puts the East Coast in the United States in peril. Florence has certainly been unpredictable, but  at the moment, all guidance wants to push Florence toward the East Coast. It's still impossible to know whether it will plow ashore or curve to the north and miss the United States for a close miss.

If it does crash ashore, nobody is sure where. The first guess right now is somewhere near the Carolinas but that's iffy. If it does threaten the United States, it won't be until near the end of this coming week. Stay tuned on this one, because it has the potential to turn into another hurricane nightmare for the United States.

Even after its winds die down, the risk for torrential rains on saturated soil makes me too nervous to think about

By the way, nobody has any idea whether Florence will have any effects here in Vermont.

TROPICAL STORM HELENE

This time of year, disturbances come off the west coast of Africa and then move westward into the open Atlantic. Often, a few days after they leave Africa, these disturbances become tropical storms or hurricanes.

It's very rare that a disturbance will turn into a tropical storm almost immediately after leaving Africa, but Tropical Storm Helene has done just that. It's still only got winds of 45 mph, but Helene is expected to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane.

The good news is early indications are the Helene will curve to the north far out over the Atlantic Ocean and miss most populated areas.  Of course, we originally thought Florence would do that, so it's worth it to keep a watch on Helene.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE

Another disturbance moved off the west African Coast a few days ago and it's now getting its act together to the west of Helene. It's now called Tropical Depression Nine, but will soon be named Tropical Storm Isaac.

This one really bears watching. It's expected to move pretty much due west over the next five days and approach the Lesser Antilles Islands in about five to six days as a hurricane. From there, it's anybody's guess, but this one could threaten ultimately threaten places like Puerto Rico again. (ugh!) and possibly the mainland United States.

It's too soon to speculate, but this could be a worrisome one.  There is plenty of time for it to decide to miss land, so we don't have to panic over Isaac yet.

HURRICANE OLIVIA

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Olivia is spinning way out there with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph as of this morning. It's slowly weakening, but still could approach Hawaii early next week, so we'll have to watch that.

East Coast Should Start Watching, But Not Panicking Over Unpredictable Florence

Satellite map shows Florence in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean,
two strong disturbances that will become tropical storms in
the eastern Atlantic and the wet remains of Gordon
lurking over Arkansas. 

Hurricane Florence, now, temporarily Tropical Storm Florence, is one of those storms that make meteorologists bald from pulling out their hair so much.  

The storm, still in the central Atlantic Ocean, keeps surprising forecasters with its variable strength and uncertain direction.

Worse, the overall weather pattern over North America and the Atlantic Ocean is very strange, making forecasting all the more difficult.

This mess would just be an esoteric exercise for weather geeks except for one thing: Florence could cause real, scary trouble somewhere along the East Coast. Nobody is sure yet. So no panicking, please.

Also, definitely ignore the clickbait that's out there on social media that says The End Is Nigh.

It's not.

Instead, check out the National Hurricane Center or sane meteorologists you trust to get the best information on Florence. Or any other hurricane or storm for that matter.

Before you start panicking, remember: Florence is still way out over the central Atlantic and people have plenty of time to prepare. As the next few days go by, we'll have a clearer picture of whether Florence will score a devastating blow on the East Coast, or turn harmlessly out to sea, or do something between those two extremes.

WHAT TO DO NOW

It is the middle of hurricane season. Which means Florence is a great excuse for people everywhere along the East Coast to consider what they would do if threatened by a major hurricane.

Where would you go if told to evacuate? What stuff would you take with you if told to evacuate? How would you protect your home and/or business?  Where are your important papers and documents, and can you easily protect those? Are there copies of those documents in another safe space? What about the stuff you have saved on your computer? Is that stored in some sort of backup or the cloud?

What would you do with your pets? Do you have an emergency stash of nonperishable food and water if told to shelter in place? (Remember, stores will be closed and electricity will be out long after a bad hurricane has passed.)

If you need supplies for any future hurricane that comes along next week, this year, or next year or five years from now, this weekend is a great time to head down to Home Depot and the grocery store to get some of these items. Nobody's panicking now, so you'll be able to get in and out of these stores just fine, and what you're looking for will still be in stock.

So what about Florence?

WHAT FLORENCE IS DOING

The European compuer models seem to want to take Florence into
the Southeast or Middle Atlantic States. These potential tracks
are all various versions of the European. Note these are
NOT definitely predictions and more speculation.
Take this map with a big grain of salt. 

Florence, against all odds, rapidly strengthened into a major Category 4 storm a couple days ago, despite strong upper level winds that should have kept it in check.

Then those high level winds finally ripped into Florence over the past 24 hours and it has weakened into a tropical storm with top winds estimated at 65 mph, and I think that's generous. Florence looks pretty disorganized as of this morning.

Forecasters think the strong upper level winds peaked early this morning and will gradually relax as Florence heads generally westward. That means the storm will likely start strengthening again. On top of that, Florence is going to move over warmer water. The hotter the water, the more likely a hurricane will strengthen.

Nobody knows how much Florence will strengthen, and given its history, nobody dares make a precise guess.

The future path of Florence is even more tricky to figure out. A couple days ago, Florence was in a spot in the Atlantic Ocean that keeps hurricanes from the East Coast. Every prior hurricane that had been in that area in known history curved north and away from the East Coast.

But there's that weird weather pattern I talked about. It's pretty much the same one we had all summer, with a strong ridge of high pressure near or off the southeastern Canadian coast.

American computer models want to take Florence more
toward New England. Again, this is just one run
of a computer model with potential tracks and NOT an
official forecast. This map is basically
speculation at this point. 

That ridge will block Florence if tries to turn north. However, there will be occasional weaknesses in that otherwise strong high pressure to the north of Florence.

Those weakenesses just might allow Florence to turn north and miss the United States, or at least turn north soon enough so it stays just offshore, so the impacts wouldn't be quite so bad.

Other computer models smash Florence directly into the East Coast. If this happens, nobody is sure where.

Here's another problem: Ocean water temperatures off the East Coast, all the way past Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes, is near record warm.  Hurricanes heading north past the Mid-Atlantic states tend to start weakening because of the chilly ocean water.

If Florence heads north of say, Virginia, it has the potential to stay stronger longer because of the toasty water.

All this is still speculation, so we're just going to have to wait it out until forecasts become more clear.

REMEMBER GORDON?

You probably remember Tropical Storm Gordon a few days ago coming ashore along the northern Gulf Coast, causing some wind and flood damage.

Gordon's remains still lurk out there. It was sitting around Arkansas this morning spreading heavy rain around.  The ghost of Gordon is going to cause huge trouble today and over the weekend, with a serious potential for flooding in places like Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. These areas have gotten lots of rain in recent weeks. The soil is saturated, and heavy rains could easily cause flooding.

A huge area from Arkansas to Iowa to Ohio is under a flash flood watch today. Atmospheric conditions will only make the chances for heavy rain increase later today and tonight, so this could be bad.

The good news, at least for us Vermonters, is that a storm that contains the remains of Gordon is expected to come through Monday and early Tuesday. We have a shot of receiving the first widespread, steady rain in the Green Mountain State since at least June.

Since much of the state is in drought or abnormally dry conditions, this will help. Us Vermonters might be lucky in getting Gordon's silver lining.

OTHER TROPICAL TROUBLE

Two strong weather disturbances have moved westward off the African Coast and into the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricance Center says both disturbances are extremely likely to turn into tropical storms, and soon.

It's way, way too early to think about where those two storms will go. We have our hands full with Florence, so let's deal with that first.

Gordon Now More Likely To Be A Hurricane

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Gordon getting stronger just off the east
coast of Florida this afternoon. It's a definite threat to the central Gulf
Coast and beyond 

In this morning's post, I speculated that Tropical Storm Gordon might end up being stronger than forecast.

It looks like that might well happen.

Gordon briefly developed an eye today, which is a bit ominous, but that well-organized core has since at least temporarily eroded, the National Hurricane Center tells us at their 5 p.m advisory.

Still, Gordon has otherwise been organizing nicely, so the NHC now thinks it will become a hurricane before making landfall. A hurricane warning is now up for the central Gulf Coast. 

Although Gordon probably won't be a blockbuster Gulf hurricane like Katrina or Harvey, it's still a force to be reckoned with, and taken seriously.

There could be a storm surge of three to five feet. At least a half foot of rain will fall on some areas with already saturated soils, so flooding is pretty much a sure bet.

The flooding looks like it will be a risk well past the time Gordon makes landfall and becomes just a remnant. Heavy rains seem like they will cause inundations along a stripe extending northwestward from southern Mississippi to Oklahoma in the coming week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Florence is still way out over the central Atlantic Ocean, with highest sustained winds of 70 mph. That's a bit stronger than it was expected to be at this time. The added strength could actually be a good sign, as it might help make it turn north and stay away from the United States.

Florence is still expected to weaken temporarily over the next couple of days, but then regain some oomph later this week. It's still too soon to tell exactly what it will do, but it's not any kind of immediate threat.  People along the U.S. East Coast will still want to keep abreast with what Florence is doing, because it can still cause trouble. We'll see.

More disturbances are emerging from the west coast of Africa and some of these will have to be watched for eventual tropical development.