Thank Goodness Big Hurricane Aletta Missed Land: Next Up: Bud And More Scary U.S. Rain

Intense Hurricane Aletta off Mexico's west coast Friday. 

Hurricane Aletta in the eastern Pacific Ocean didn't really get anyone hot and bothered except for weather geeks like me.

It spun up off the western Mexican coast in recent days.

At midweek it blossomed overnight from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 140 mph. It's very unusual for a storm to intensify that fast, and of course there would have been real trouble had Aletta gotten close to land.

Thankfully, she headed west, away from land. All we got was the wow factor of seeing a hurricane intensify so fast and spectacular satellite photos and videos. Now, Aletta is getting into colder waters and stronger upper level winds. It's weakening, and should dissipate within a few days.

It's not weird for a hurricane to get going this early in the eastern Pacific. It IS odd, but certainly not unprecedented for a hurricane to get that strong so early in the season. It's the sixth earliest Category 4 storm in the eastern Pacific, notes Dr. Jeff Masters in his Category 6 blog.

Another eastern Pacific tropical storm seems almost certain to form any minute now. It will be named Bud and it could threaten Baja California with heavy rain, high surf and strong winds. It bears watching.

I like the name Bud for a tropical storm or hurricane but I still don't want it to hit land and cause havoc.

MIDDLE ATLANTIC RAINS, AGAIN!

Of more concern to people in the United States is a return to a weather pattern that brought destructive flooding during May to some areas in and near the Middle Atlantic States. and Midwest.

A generally west-to-east oriented weather front is forecast to waver back and forth over the central Plains, through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the Middle Atlantic States over the next week or more.

This will bring repeated rains, sometimes heavy to these regions.  The Middle Atlantic States had among their wettest Mays on record. Many areas flooded, like we saw in the Ellicott City, Maryland disaster. The Potomac River went into a high enough flood so that a fly fisherman was spotted in the Washington DC National Mall as the river's waters invaded that area.

Other areas, as far west as Iowa, have been suffering through this weather pattern, with flooding reported there, and more expected.

Evacuations due to flooding in Mason City, Iowa this week.
Via NorthIowaToday.com

I do think we will see more news of destructive and possibly flash floods in the areas I just mentioned over the course of  the next 10 days or so.

This weather pattern, with the wavering front well to our south, is and isn't perfect for us here in Vermont, either.

On the perfect side, it has been happily contributing to a long series of Goldilocks, Chamber of Commerce Days (Not too hot, not too cold, and plenty of sun for the tourists to enjoy.)

This trend will continue for the next few days at least.

But we are drying out, and very little rain is forecast here in Vermont over the next week. Some precipitation might fall toward the end of next week, but at this point it's looking way less than impressive.

We are still quite far from any worries about drought, though areas of abnormally dry conditions are starting to pop up in parts of New England, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

If this trend continues through the summer (a really BIG if), we could be looking at some problems with lack of water by August or so. Fortunately, weather patterns that start in May typically don't last through the whole summer.

Tropics Starting To Bubble Before Hurricane Season Even Hits

From left to right: Hurricanes Katia, Irma and Jose last year. 

Last year in the Atlantic Ocean, the hurricane season was horrific.

Harvey. Irma. Maria. I shudder just thinking about those deadly, destructive storms.

Hurricane season starts May 15 in the eastern Pacific Ocean and June 1 in the Atlantic Ocean, but there are already signs that things might start to get active soon, even before the officials start of the tropical storm season.

There won't be anything like Harvey or Maria in the near future, thank goodness, but there a couple things worth watching

There's a decent chance a tropical storm could form in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico in the coming days. Most of storms that form there don't hit land but a few do. If this particular disturbance forms, it will be the second year in a row a tropical storm formed there before the May 15 "official" start to the season.

In any event, if this storm gets going, forecasters say it won't last long and won't hit land.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, some computer models are suggesting something might get going in the western Caribbean Sea late next week. I'm not counting on it though. Other computer models have nothing there next week.

However, water temperatures in the western Caribbean are warmer than normal for this time of year and are toasty enough to support tropical storms. Also, this time of year, the jet stream is usually far enough south to rip apart any tropical storms that try to form in the Caribbean, but the jet stream is expected to be further north than usual for a time next week, which could offer a window for tropical storm development.

Off the coast of Chile, a subtropical storm formed this week. That's very rare, since ocean waters off the Chilean coast are usually too cold to support any kind of tropical system. (Tropical storms and hurricanes need very warm water to form and thrive.)

A rare subtropical storm off the coast of Chile this week.

Subtropical storms have characteristics of both tropical storms and normal average everyday storm systems.

Such a storm had not been seen off the coast of Chile until now. Some may have formed in the past, though, before there was decent satellite imagery coming from that area in the southern hemisphere.

Even if the hurricane season gets off to an early start, that doesn't necessarily mean this will be a busy, destructive season. It's partly a matter of luck. If any big hurricanes form, will they stay out to sea or hit land?  Will weather conditions and water temperatures conspire to give birth to lots of storms later this year? Nobody knows for sure.

For what it's worth, Colorado State University puts out hurricane season forecasts every year, and they're predicting a slightly above normal season in the Atlantic. The Weather Company, parent of the Weather Channel, predicts a near average season. 

One thing to note: Some of last year's most destructive Atlantic hurricanes developed explosively. They went from nothingburgers to monsters in days or even hours.   Some scientists are saying this kind of rapid, dangerous development could become more common as oceans warm under the influence of global warming.

Meanwhile, we're in the heart of the severe storm and tornado season in the United States. So far, it hasn't been too bad. As of today, there have been 317 reports of tornadoes in the United States in 2018. That sounds like a lot, but it's actually below average.

Maybe that trend will continue?

Another Tropics Update: Things Are Damn Busy!

That tropical disturbance that has been hyped for a week
now is still NOT a big deal now that it's gotten south
of Florida. But now it's showing signs of spinning up
a little better and could become a tropical storm
in the next few days in the Gulf of Mexico.  

As of Sunday afternoon, the activity regarding tropical storms, hurricanes and wannabe tropical storms and hurricanes is getting fast and furious.

All KINDS of things are happening. Whether any of these will be a huge threat to life and property, especially here in the United States, is open to question, but it's all something that we should watch.

INVEST 99L

Let's start with that thing everybody in Weather Land has been talking about for days and days, known as Invest 99L.

The National Hurricane Center gives an "Invest" name to anything it's watching that could develop into a tropical storm.

Invest 99L has been the subject of all the buzz for days. That's because at least a week ago, some of the weather models have been saying it could be a HUGE threat to the United States. Other computer models said, "Pffft." but it's more fun to hype catastrophe than a big yawn.

Anyway, Invest 99L has been making its way westward across the tropical Atlantic. By the time it got near the Bahamas Friday, some computer models said it would be a monster, but of course it isn't.

Right now it's getting into the Florida straights and heading toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Soon, the time might be ripe for Invest 99L to get going. Upper level winds had been tearing apartany attempts by Invest 99L to develop into a tropical storm.  But as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, those high level winds will diminish a little bit.

Plus, the Gulf of Mexico water is very, very warm, which could help this thing get going. The National Hurricane Center, which had been sort of bored by this system as it was in the Atlantic, is perking up with some concern.

They now give Invest 99L a high chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next few days. That could pose a wind and especially heavy rain threat, most likely to some spots in the eastern half of the U.S Gulf Coast in the coming days.

Once it reaches the Gulf Coast in a few days (if it does actually make landfall) nobody has a clue as to what it will do after that.

Everybody thought this would be the next tropical storm, and it would be named Hermine. However, a surprise happened west of Bermuda overnight.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT

An area of showers and thunderstorms not far from Bermuda was sputtering and struggling the past few days as dry air prevented things from getting going.

You can see a swirl in the middle of this satellite shot from Sunday
where the center of the tropical depression is, but that big
white clump you see is thunderstorms being torn westward
away from the center by strong upper level winds. That
means this thing probably won't get much stronger. A 

But in a bit of a surprise, this weather disturbance grew into a tropical depression, which is a step shy of a tropical storm.

Chances are it will strengthen to Tropical Storm Hermine in the next day or so, but it won't get super ultra strong. Upper level winds are ripping thunderstorms away from its center, which is hurting it, and the air is still kinda dry nearby.

Still, it could side swipe the North Carolina Outer Banks with gusty winds, rough seas, rip currents and locally heavy rains Tuesday or Wedneday before it turns and heads out to sea.

HURRICANE GASTON

The bad news is Hurricane Gaston out in the Atlantic Ocean is strong and getting stronger. The good news is it doesn't appear to be any kind of threat to the United States. At last check, it was well east of Bermuda with sustained winds of 105 mph. Yikes!

Hurricane Gaston looking strong and healthy out in the
middle of the Atlantic Ocean Sunday. No threat to the United States, though. A 

It might strengthen a bit more as it sort of hangs out there not going much of anywhere for the next few days, but then it will head off into the North Atlantic to die.

SOMETHING IN NIGERIA

A strong wave of stormy weather is in Nigeria this weekend and will soon head westward, head out of Africa and into the eastern Atlantic. There's a strong chance this thing could develop into a hurricane, but don't believe any hype on this one yet

If it does end up threatening the United States, which is iffy, it would do so in about 10 to 14 days.
Don't worry about this one yet.

HAWAII

There's a couple potential tropical storm threats for Hawaii over the next week or so.

Hurricane Lester with 85 mph sustained winds, is chugging westward across the Pacific Ocean, and is sort of headed toward Hawaii. If it makes it there, it would be sometime next weekend, so people in the Aloha State will have to keep an eye on our buddy Lester.

Before Lester gets near Hawaii, the islands will have to contend with Tropical Storm Madeline, which will be near Hawaii midweek. It should weaken by the time it gets there, but it could unleash some torrential rains and flash flooding to parts of Hawaii in the next few days.

TYPHOON LIONROCK

A typhoon named Lionrock is threatening Japan. Isn't that a great name for a typhoon or hurricane?

This isn't so great for Japan, though. It's threatening to hit the central or northern parts of Japan with winds of up to 75 or 80 mph and torrential, flooding rains this week. Could be big trouble for them.

Terrible Tropical Cyclone Winston Slams Fiji

Photo shows Tropical Cyclone Winston just
beginning to batter Fiji on Friday.  

Tropical Cyclone Winston, the strongest such storm on record in the southern hemisphere, has just slammed the low lying Pacific Ocean nation of Fiji, in what is being described as a worst case scenario for the islands.

Winston packed winds of 185 mph as it roared over Fiji. It was a Category 5 storm, the worst possible.  Reports are just beginning to filter out of Fiji. As of 7 a.m. eastern time in the United States, we know of at least one fatality and widespread destruction.

The web site Stuff New Zealand reported that even before the full force of the storm hit, tourists on Fiji were reporting widespread power failures and roofs blown off buildings.

The tourists said they were especially concerned about local residents, who lived in flimsier houses than the sturdy hotels they were hunkered down in.

The epic Winston is the latest in what seems to be a trend of super tropical storms. Last October, Hurricane Patricia became the strongest hurricane on record in the northern hemisphere. 

Satellite view of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone
Winston, which is battering Fiji. 

A recently re-assessment of Patricia by the National Hurricane Center showed the maximum sustained winds in Patricia were 215 mph, which was 15 mph stronger than initially reported.

Even the 200 mph winds made it the strongest northern hemispher hurricane on record so 215 mph is pretty incredible.    

Overall, 2015 was the busiest year on record for tropical systems in the Pacific Ocean. This included several super typhoons in the eastern Pacific.

A super typhoon, which is a hurricane in the eastern Pacific, is defined as one having sustained winds of at least 150 mph. 

Here's a brief video of Winston in Fiji causing destruction even before the full force of the storm hit:

Watch Two Gorgeous/Nasty Storms In The Pacific Do The "Bombogenesis"

Bombogenesis in the Pacific 

It's called bombogenesis.

Two storms in the Pacific Ocean blossomed last week into huge monsters. From space, bombogenesis is beautiful, as you'll see in the video below.

We should explain the terminology.  We start with the word "cyclogenesis." That word refers to  the formation and strengthening of any storm system.  When a storm strengthens, the air pressure at its center gets lower.

Some storms develop extremely fast - explosively as some people put it. You know, blowing up big like bombs.

Which leads us to bombogenesis. There is actually a specific meteorological definition of this. For a storm to qualify as a bomb, undergoing bombogenesis, the central air pressue must fall by 24 millibars or more within 24 hours.

Storms that bomb out are of course dangerous, as they are strong and cause rapidly changing conditions where they strike.

Still, they're fun to watch when the happen. Last week, as I noted, two storms underwent bombogenesis in tandem in the northern Pacific. And a typhoon morphed into a pretty strong regular storm to the big storms' south, too.

Here's the video:

Erika Still Dead(it) But Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Abound

Major hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena lined
up in the Pacific Ocean.  

The much-discussed Tropical Storm Erika, now dead as noted yesterday, is still a zombie torturing Florida.

The dead-ish storm is still producing gusty winds and heavy rains in Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba.

There's still a slight chance Erika will regenerate into a bonafide tropical storm as it heads into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but don't count on it.

That doesn't matter anyway. Winds will still gust to 40 mph in parts of Florida, and more importantly, drenching rains will hit the state.

As I said yesterday, to an extent that's good, because South Florida has been in a drought. But these tropical rains are too much too fast, so flooding is definitely a problem.

The remnants of Erika will probably eventually head into the Florida panhandle and the southeastern United States later this week with more heavy rain and possible flooding there.

Now, we have a new Atlantic tropical storm named Fred.

Welcome to the world, Fred!

Fred was a disturbance that came off the African west coast the other day. It developed remarkably rapidly after getting out into the Atlantic. Usually it takes a few days, but this one revved up.

The National Hurricane Center said Fred is only the fourth tropical storm they know of, out of many hundreds, that formed east of 19W longitude.

True, Fred was only packing winds of 40 mph early Sunday morning, but it's expected to strengthen quickly into a hurricane and threaten the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic over the next couple of days.

After that, Fred will head out into the open Atlantic, where it might encounter the kinds of strong upper level winds that destroyed Hurricane Danny and Tropical Storm Erika. Even if it survives, Fred poses no immediate threat to land after it leaves  the Cape Verde Islands.

PACIFIC OCEAN

The Pacific Ocean continues to be wild in the hurricane department. For the first time in modern history, there were three major hurricanes lined up in the central and eastern Pacific - Kilo, Jimena and Ignacio.

As you can see in the photo at the top of the post, these three hurricanes lined up are quite a sight on satellite photos.

Ignacio is the one that is being most closely watched. It is expected to skirt east and north of Hawaii, but come close enough to produce tropical storm force winds on the Big Island of Hawaii and other nearby islands. Flooding is a risk, too.

Tropical storm warnings are up for Hawaii, a place that has had a very stormy late summer, with near miss tropical storms and downpours aided and abetted by El Nino.

Hawaii is definitely not the sunny tropical paradise it usually is.

Very Early Pacific Hurricanes Providiing Bit Of Southwest U.S. Drought Relief

Because of El Nino, the number of tropical storms and hurricanes along or off the United States East Coast is supposed to be lower than usual this year.

Hurricane Bianca off the west coast of
Mexico on Saturday.  

Not so in the eastern Pacific. Unusually warm El Nino waters have already produced two strong hurricanes out there, which is unprecedented for so early in the season.  

Andrew spun out to sea into cooler waters and died last week. Bianca reached Catagory 4 status this weekend, and is now getting weaker as it moves into cooler waters. 

It should still hit Mexico's Baja Penninsula as a tropical storm. (Hurricanes thrive in warm water, and fall apart in cooler water)

It Baja California does get a tropical storm, it will be the earliest in the season on record that the region has had such a storm, says Dr. Jeff Masters. 

Moisture from these hurricanes won't end the drought in southern California and parts of Arizona, but the storms are providing a bit of unseasonable moisture to the region.

For instance, Phoenix, Arizona recorded 0.16 inches of rain Friday. That's a drop in the bucket, but it's extremely unusual for rain to fall in Phoenix in June.

It's too late in the year for cold fronts to press as far south as Phoenix, so no rain from those. Later in the summer, the desert heat lowers the air pressure in the Desert Southwest, bringing in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and thunderstorms. But that never happens until July or August. June is usually dry, dry dry. 

Moisture from Bianca is going to draw even more unusual moisture into southern California and Arizona, so look for more welcome rain in that region. Just not enough to come close to easing teh drought.

And if there's lightning, that could set off forest fires, so as you see, this weird hurricane rich weather pattern out there isn't going to be all good.

Another problem: Some of this tropical moisture could find its way into parts of flood ravaged Oklahoma and Texas. They surely don't need any rain at the moment, so this could be troublesome.

Some of the moisture from the hurricanes could even interact with weather systems in the Midwest next week, making rain heavier and making local flash floods more likely. Though I'll emphasis most of the moisture for these storms will come from the Gulf of Mexico. 

A wide stripe of the nation from Oklahoma and South Dakota, across the Midwest to northern New England are expecting two or more inches of rain over the next week. 

Further north, from central California on up into Washington, near record heat is forecast for the next few days. (It had been blessedly cooler than normal in recent weeks in this region.) 

The dry heat this week will worsen the already terrible drought along the central and northern Pacific coasts of the United States. 

Despite U.S. Senate Snowball, Global Warming Might Be Ready To Intensify

U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, with a snow ball,  which was taking
its chances in hell, also known as the U.S. Senate Chamber.  

I've been focusing on the extreme winter weather in the Northeast, but there's news, as there always seems to be on the global warming front.

I'll dispense with the frivolous first. On the Senate floor in the U.S. Capitol Thursday, U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Oklahoma tossed a snowball.   

That was all to prove his contention that global warming is a hoax, apparently.

It snowed in Washington Thursday. I know.  Imagine! Snow in Washington DC. In February!  Washington is obviously the center of Inhofe's universe. If it's the center of his universe, and it's cold there on a particular day, then global warming doesn't exist.

By Inhofe's logic, if his home state of Oklahoma has a day that gets up to 100 degrees this July, then global warming must be raging out of control. Of course I doubt Inhofe will say that on some torrid summer afternoon.

Of course one chilly day in Washington and one steamy day in Oklahoma say absolutely nothing about global warming, but that's totally besides the fact. Washington DC, as we all well know, doesn't run on logic.

I'm sure that Inhofe really doesn't believe he was disproving global climate change with his snowball. He was just having a bit of fun, and trolling people who are worried about climate change.

This past week, some scientists said we have new reasons to worry about climate change. The pace of it might be getting ready to increase.

Climate change deniers have said repeatedly that the world stopped warming at around 1998, so the whole thing is a hoax, according to them. Global warming, say the contrarians, has paused.

Actually, the world has kept warming since 1998. Most climate watchers say the hottest year in modern record was just last year - 2014. Some climate scientists I read regard the so-called global warming pause as the "faux pause."

However, there's absolutely no mistaking that the pace at which global temperatures have risen definitely slowed in the past 15 years or so.

Scienfic American and other publications, citing the journal Science, reported in the past week on research indicating the slow down in the rate of temperature change has to do with natural cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

The ocean cycles are called the Pacifc mulidecadel oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.  

These are a mouthful, but basically in the past decade or so, the Pacific Ocean has been cooling somewhat, due to these natural cycles. The Atlantic Ocean, in its cycle, has been warming, but the Pacific cooling outweighs the Atlantic's efforts, if you will.

The Pacific cooling acts as a drag on the rate at which the world overall warms. Perhaps had there been no man-made global climate change, the Earth would have been cooling somewhat over the past 15 years or so.

Cycles, by definition, eventually end. At some point, the Pacific multidecadel oscillation will shift into its warming phase. With or without human-caused climate change, when the Pacific goes into its warm phase, the Earth overall warms up slightly.

The concern among the scientists is, when the Pacific goes into its warm phase, it will team up with what us humans are doing and introduce a period of rapid warming across the globe

That kind of happened in the period from the 1970s to the late 1990s when the Pacific was in its warm phase. Previously, in the 1950s and 1960s, when the Pacific was in its cool phase, global temperatures barely warmed.

So when will the current cool Pacific phase end? The answer is pretty soon, we think.

Scientific American says Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State Univeristy, believes we're close to shifting into the warm phase in the Pacific, meaning the pace of global warming could accelerate in the next few years.

Researchers have not said precisely when the warm phase will begin, but since the phases last very roughly 20 years or so, the consensus seems to be the shift will come sometime between now and five years from now.

The reason for the lack of clarity over when things will shift is scientists still don't really fully understand what drives the phases, why they shift, and what triggers shifts.

Bob Henson at Weather Underground said signs in 2014 seemed to indicate the Pacific was shifting toward its warm phase, but that still could be a blip in the overall cool phase. Time will tell.

  

Hurricanes, Typhoons Keep Buzzsawing The Pacific

Incredible clouds around the eye of
Super Typhoon Genevieve. Click on the
image to make it bigger and easier
to see the detail.  

It's quite a year out in the Pacific Ocean this year for severe tropical weather.

I guess Pacific really is the wrong word to describe that ocean.

We all heard about Hurricane Iselle, which hit Hawaii as a strong tropical storm yesterday. 

It dumped up to 14 inches of rain on the Big Island of Hawaii. There's been a lot of flooding, mudslides, rock slides, structural damage from wind and trees down.

I haven't heard of any deaths yet, which is a great thing.

Then there's Hurricane Julio, which is going to harass Hawaii, but not hit it. It looks like Julio is going to pass far enough north of Hawaii to only give minor effects. Which is good, because they have their hands full with the aftermath of Iselle.

Hurricane Genevieve crossed the International Date Line the other day as it traveled west. That changed its name to Typhoon Genevieve. Typhoons and hurricanes are the same thing, they're just have different names in different parts of the world.

Genevieve became a super typhoon, meaning it has sustained winds of 150 mph or more. It looks like Genevieve is not a big threat to any land areas at the moment.

Typhoon Halong was trashing southwestern Japan as of Saturday, with severe flooding in that part of the country.  The area had already been hit by torrential rains and typhoons, and the flooding from Halong is expected to get extremely scary, and turn into among the worst Japan has seen.

Rain was reported falling at a rate of three to four inches an hour in some places.

Not good.