It's Not The "Polar Vortex" It's The Yo-Yo Extremes That Wow Me This Winter

Someone flash froze these pants in air that was 20s below
and left them outside to mark the occasion
Uof the worst cold snap in a generation. 

UPDATE: 2 p.m. EST Wednesday.

I'm seeing more reports of some pretty impressive new cold weather records today out in the Midwest.

It looks like there's a new all-time record low temperature for the entire state of Illinois. It reportedly got down to 38 below in Mt. Carroll, Illinois today.

They're going to inspect the Mt Carroll equipment to make sure it's accurate. If it is, that 38 below would break the previous statewide Illinois record low of 36 below in Congerville, set on January 5, 1999.

Moline, Illinois dropped down to 33 below. That broke the city's all-time record low by six degrees. It's very rare to break an all-time record low, but to exceed it by six degrees is absolutely incredible.

We have an update from Rockford, Illinois, which had an all-time record low of 31 below, not 30 below as previously reported. Cedar Rapids, Iowa was at 30 below, a new all-time record for them.

In Michigan, MLive reports some strange things going on inside houses there, and I'm sure this is happening elsewhere. People report frozen water in toilets, ice on indoor electrical outlets, curtains frozen to sliding glass doors and the interior of doors covered in frost.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Yes, yes, I know the cold snap in the Midwest is a memorable, record-breaking weather event.

But what's got me fascinated is not so much the cold wave but the one-extreme-to-another character of this winter. Which actually is a continuation of what we've increasingly seen in this nation and worldwide in recent years and decades.

I had to mention the "Polar Vortex" in the headline of this post because that's all everybody is talking about in relation to this cold snap.  To review, the polar vortex is a normal component of the Arctic winter.

Pieces of the polar vortex sometimes break off and head south. That's also completely normal. Occasionally, these pieces head south into the United States. That's what happened this time.
Again: Normal.

It's just that the particular piece that broke off in recent days and roared south from northern Canada  brought with it air that was even chillier than usual.

And since this piece of the polar vortex raced southward faster than usual, it didn't have time to warm up on its trip south.  That's why the Midwest is seeing record cold.  So there, I've got that out of the way.

The cold is impressive. Cotton, Minnesota reportedly got down to 56 below this morning, which is within four degrees of Minnesota's all time state record for cold. Rockford, Illinois was down to 30 below, that city's coldest reading in history.

Up in International Falls, Minnesota, it was 45 below this morning after a "high" temperature of 19 below on Tuesday.

The Midwest, and eventually us here in Vermont are about to see a spectacular warm up.  In some places, it is said it will warm up at a record pace, whatever that is.  Davenport, Iowa, which was at 27 below this morning, is expecting a high temperaure Sunday of 48 degrees, which is a 75 degree jump.

International Falls, Minnesota is expected to reach 26 degrees Sunday, 71 degrees hotter than it was this morning.

Here in Vermont, the change won't be as extreme. But subzero readings Friday morning will be replaced by highs in the 40s by early next week.

A heavy snow squall in St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday. The
squalls contributed to one of the snowiest Januaries on
record in Burlington, Vermont. 

Speaking of extremes, those snow squalls yesterday covered an amazingly wide area of the Northeast, stretching from Pennsylvania to Massachusetts and Maine.

Some of the squalls caused serious highway pileups in Pennsylvania and New York.  The snow squall that hit my place was one of the most intense I can remember, though, like most snow squalls it was very brief.

The snow squalls added another installment to the month's snow total in Burlington, Vermont. The city has had 41.3 inches of snow this month, making this the third snowiest January on record. You'd never know it, because repeated thaws in this yo-yo winter have cut back on the amount of snow on the ground.  

Caribou, Maine has had 59.8 inches of snow this month, its snowiest January on record.  Meanwhile, Boston, Massachusetts has had only 2.3 inches of snow this winter, which is 20.5 inches below normal.

When I tweeted out Burlington's snow total this morning, Tim Kelley, a meteorologist with NBC10 in Boston and NECN, responded with this very true reply which read in part:

"'Normal' weather does not exist. It's a balance of extremes. Always has been, always will be."

The contrast between snowfall in northern and southern New England is a great example of that. So are the monthly average temperatures in the Midwest for January. Despite the record cold, Minneapolis will have a January, 2019 that will be only about a degree cooler than average. They had a warm start to the month.

In other words, January temperatures in Minneapolis will be  close to "normal."

The sticky question arises when you question whether the extremes that lead to these "normals" are getting more extreme. Climate scientists say they are. To me, judging whether the climate is more extreme than it used to be is sometimes hard to do.

Yes, there are more record highs than record lows lately, even though this week in the United States is chilly. You can measure that. There's evidence that floods, droughts and such are getting worse.

But the causes of months like January in the United States are hard to tease out. How much was due to just the usual randomness of the atmosphere? Did climate change influence any of this, and if so, by how much?

I don't know. The climate scientists will keep studying this. Meanwhile, we just keep bracing ourselves for our roller coaster weather ride, and hope this roller coaster doesn't totally derail.