Extreme Weather Coming To Vermont, Northeast But Questions Remain

At this point, areas in pink seem to be the most likely to
have the heaviest snow. This forecast could easily change, of
course. The axis of heaviest snow could shift south or north.

Oooh, ,we're in for a rough spell of weather, no question about that. We've got the potential for a lot of snow here in Vermont, plus wind, blowing snow and a punishing, wicked cold snap with more strong winds and Arctic temperatures.

New England is entering the core of winter, and the conditions will be harsh. And these harsh conditions will probably last awhile.   


The National Weather Service is very confident about that winter storm this weekend in the Northeast. That's why winter storm watches are up for a big area that includes most of New York and Most of New England, including all of Vermont.

Here in Vermont, the winter storm watch is up from Saturday evening through Sunday night. Pretty much all of us are very likely to get at least six inches of snow out of this storm.

The devil is still in the details. It looks like somebody in New York and New England is going to get walloped by up to two feet of snow, and the snow will come down at amazing fast rates in these locations.

The problem is nobody knows which location.

The storm that's going to cause this havoc was still just about to come ashore in California early this morning. It's causing flooding, mudslides, debris flows, high winds and coastal flooding in much of the state.  Blizzards are socking the Sierra Nevada mountains, with the highest elevations expecting three to six feet of snow with winds gusting to 100 mph.

All this means is that we're talking about a powerful, dynamic storm, and it will stay that way all the way to the East Coast.

It's hard to get atmospheric data from a storm out over the Pacific Ocean, and that makes it difficult to sample aspects of the storm and thus predict what it might do once it travels all the way to the eastern United States. That's why forecasters are still being vague about how much snow we'll get.

Meteorologists will be able to get much better data starting later today, and will become much better able to pin down where the heaviest precipitation with this storm will fall. Later today and especially Friday, you'll start to see more precise forecasts of how much snow will accumulate where in the Northeast.

We do know there will be a sharp temperature contrast along the storm's path, with bitter Arctic air to the north and west over northern New England and the western Appalachian Mountains, and very warm air just off the East Coast.

That's a recipe for very heavy precipitation in favored areas.

In some respects, the upcoming storm is beginning to remind me a little of the Valentine's Day blizzard in Vermont and surrounding areas back in 2007. There definitely differences between that storm and the one coming.

But in both cases, areas to the north and the west of the storm will get very heavy, dense snow will temperatures are very cold - in the single digits. It also looks like it will get windy, especially toward the end of the storm on Sunday and Sunday night.

As mentioned, the question is we don't know where the heaviest snow will set up. First guesses favor central and southern Vermont, but that's still subject to big changes.

It looks like precipitation will be all snow in Vermont, except perhaps the southeast tip of the state. This kind of storm will try to force a lot of warm air to come in aloft. That helps explain why so much snow is forecast. A lot of warm air going up and over the top of the Arctic air is a recipie for heavy snow.

The trouble with all this warm air aloft is, there will be so much of it that areas to our south, perhaps in southern New England, southern New York and northern New Jersey, are at risk for a damaging ice storm, with the possibillity of heavy ice accumulations. That would bring down a lot of trees and power lines

In that respect, Vermont is lucky. I still think bitter cold and heavy snow is preferable to a destructive ice storm.

Almost all of us will hate, HATE what comes after the storm. The departing storm's north winds will bring in more Arctic air Sunday night, and there will be a strong, additional push of this bitter air coming in Monday.

We'll be lucky if temperatures get above zero Monday. Wind chills could be in the 20s below zero. Those strong winds will blow all that new, powdery snow around. Low temperatures will be in the teens below zero.

The good news is this particular blast of Arctic air won't last long, as temperatures will warm up to more comfortable levels by mid-week. The bad news is there will be more blasts of Arctic air from the North Pole to close out January and begin February. There will also be the risk of more storms during this period as the weather pattern stays very active.