Here We Go Again: Winter Storm Watch Up For Vermont

Here's that familiar snow forecast map we've seen so much of
this winter. This new storm Tuesday into Wednesday is forecast
give most of us 6 to 12 inches of new snow.

It's certainly been a back and forth kind of winter here in Vermont. We get a bunch of snow. Then a lot of it melts. Then it all comes back. Melts again. Rinse and repeat.

Obviously, a fair amount of snow remained after last Thursday's rain, thaw, ice jams and general ugliness.  We got some replacement snow yesterday, as one to four inches of snow, some of it in squalls, dumped on us Vermonters.

Now, this morning, once again, we find ourselves under another winter storm watch.  It looks like another six to 10 inches of powder will come down on us, mostly Tuesday night.

The meteorologists and weather geeks have been watching a storm in the Midwest that's been bringing heavy snows and blizzard conditions to areas from the Dakotas to Michigan. This storm is the leading edge of that Arctic blast that's been hyped up for a week now.

That Arctic blast is still expected to bring very dangerous 40 to 60 below wind chills to the upper Midwest this week with actual temperatures in many areas out there near the record low territory. Lows will be as chilly as the 40s below in northern Minnesota.

Not to be cavalier, but that's their problem. That storm in the Midwest will keep chugging east and wind up somewhere in western New York or southern Ontario by Tuesday evening. By then, light snow will have spread over our region.

The storm over Ontario will move northeast and fade, while a new storm blossoms somewhere near New Jersey and heads northeastward along the New England coast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

The seeds of this coastal storm are prompting winter storm watches and warnings for the Deep South, places like Mississppi, Alabama and Georgia, where one to three inches of snow is expected tonight and tomorrow.

A snow squall sharply reducing visibility in St. Albans, Vermont Sunday

Tuesday night is when most of the snow will come down around here.  The steady snow will shut off pretty quickly during the day Wednesday, though light snow showers and flurries will continue, possibly into Thursday.

The snow this time is no blockbuster, and will certainly be smaller than the dump we got a little over a week ago.  

The general consensus is most of us will received six to 10 inches of snow, with maybe a little more than that in southern Vermont a perhaps a tad less in far northern New York.

An exception to this forecast is the western and central Adirondacks of New York. Lake effect snow will keep cranking into Wednesday, so storm totals there will be more like 12 to 18 inches.

We don't have much on the ground to show for it, given the thaws between the cold snaps this month, but this January in Burlington is among the snowiest on record. The city has already gotten 34.2 inches of snow this month. Even if not another snowflake falls through the end of the month, it will still be the seventh snowiest on record.

The upcoming storm will not be enough to make January the snowiest first month of the year. That honor goes to January,  2010, when 48.4 inches of snow fell on Burlington.

That Arctic blast from the Midwest will come in on the heels of the storm, but I will call it a semi-blast by the time it gets to Vermont.  From Wednesday night on through Saturday morning, we'll have subzero overnights - but only in the "meh" range -- 5 to 15 below. We can handle that if we dress the part.

Daytime highs only in the single numbers and teens.

Next - and a lot of you are going to hate this -- there are signs the up and down roller coaster will continue. It appears it will start to warm up dramatically next Sunday, with a decent chance of yet another mix to rain episode of a storm toward next Monday and Tuesday.

That long range forecast could change, but it would certainly fit the pattern of this up-and-down, active winter.