Quickie Update On Weekend Winter Storm

The latest schematic on where the expected storm will be
on Sumday. Without getting complicated for you, areas
with a lot of black lines close together will
likely be windy

Yes, it's already Wednesday, but we still can't totally pin down what will happen with the heralded, advertised, hyped storm we'll get this weekend here in Vermont.

As is usual four days ahead of a storm, we're in what I call windshield wiper forecast mode. That's when the computer forecast models, and many meteorologists, go back and forth, and back and forth, on where the storm will go.  

It's going inland! That means heaviest snow in Vermont. No, wait! Further east! Not as much snow for us then.  Oops! New forecast model, we're in the snow crosshairs again.  Then we've got a new forecast model. The storm is further east again.

On and on it goes until we get closer to the actual day of the storm.

As an aside, computer forecast models usually get the gist of how a storm will behave days before the action actually occurs. But something went horribly off the rails with one computer model last night. It forecasted no snow in Vermont, but three inches or so in Miami, Florida, a couple inches perhaps in Havana, Cuba, and as much 18 inches of fresh, powdery snow in Bermuda.

Don't worry. The actual Sunday forecast for Miami, Havana and Bermuda are highs of 79, 81, and 70 degrees respectively, so it won't snow in those places. People taking tropical vacations in these places can relax.

Something went horribly wrong with a computer forecast
model yesterday. This one is predicing accumulating
snow in Miami and Havana, and as much a
a foot and a half of snow in Bermuda.
Needless to say this definitely won't happen. 

Because of the windshield wiper effect I described above, nobody is sure how much snow we'll get out of this Saturday night and Sunday. Here's what we know about the effects of this storm on Vermont so far:

1. It's going to snow Saturday night and Sunday.

2. We don't yet know how much accumulation we'll get, but there's a high potential of at least a plowable snow.

3. The snow will probably have a high fluff factor, because it's going to be cold.

4. That cold will be miserable during the storm, with high temperatures Sunday, especially in the north, hovering near 10 degrees. And the wind will pick up.

5. After the storm goes by, Sunday night through Tuesday will be brutal, with easily the coldest air so far this winter. High temperatures Monday will probably be near 0, and there's a very good chance lows during this period will be mostly in the teens and 20s below zero. Strong winds Sunday night and Monday will create dangerous wind chills.

6. No thaws are in sight for at least the next 10 days.

Before we get to the weekend storm snow showers and maybe a snow squall or two will zip by with an Arctic cold front today, so watch out for that on the roads.

After a cold Thursday,  a weak storm will toss a dusting to three inches of snow on us Friday. Then, after that, the main show arrives.