Annoying, Hard-To-Forecast Storm Leaving, Cold Pours In

It was still snowing at mid morning in Montpelier, as  this
snowy web came view of the State Capitol indicates.

The snow in Vermont and surrounding areas is slowly tapering off as we head into this mid-morning Thursday as a storm that was frustrating for meteorologists and weather geeks begins to depart.

Although the broad outlines of the forecasts ahead of the storm were right, the system's dynamics and its stage of development had meteorologists pulling out their hair.

It quickly became apparent later on Tuesday - almost at the last minute - that this wouldn't be the minor system we anticipated a couple days earlier. Then, forecasting where the heaviest snow would come down, the temperatures, the risk of mixed precipitation near the onset, were all difficult.

Winter storm warnings and advisories seemed to change by the hour as forecasters caught up with the storm.  Parts of the Champlain Valley and southeastern Vermont got more snow than anticipated, while other areas got a bit less.

In the end, the storm did, and is dumping more snow in the mountains than in the valleys, as expected.

What maded this storm difficult is that it was just in its initial developing phase as it formed over roughly Ohio Tuesday, then made its way across Pennsylvania and New York, and then into New England Wednesday.

When a storm is just beginning to gather steam, as this one was, my opinion is they're harder to figure out, and small differences in anticipated air temperatures, air flow and the like can make things especially tricky to forecast.

Usually, by the time a storm reaches New England, or the coast, or the Great Lakes and starts affecting us, the storm is mature. By then, it's more likely to follow "the rules" and thus is a bit easier to forecast, although these things can still surprise.

This week's storm wasn't mature when it got to us, and it confounded us a bit.

By today, the storm IS mature, and is "behaving" more like a storm ought to as it spins its way into the Canadian Maritimes.  So,  unlike on Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday the weather late last night and this morning turned out just about as expected, for once.

Forecasters knew a spoke of energy rotating around the back side of the storm early this morning would enhance snowfall over northern Vermont, and that indeed happened. That spoke of energy is departing, and now we're transitioning into a very normal post-storm pattern.

Northwest winds around the back side of the storm are focusing the snow on the Adirondacks, the west slopes and summits of the Green Mountains, the higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom, and the White Mountains of New Hampshire.

I don't think areas outside the zones I just described will get much more snow. Maybe another inch or two, three at the very, very most.

In those mountain locations, the snow should keep going the rest of the day and probably into this evening, so several more inches of fluff will come down there.

So far, central Vermont is the big winner in the snow accumulation derby. They're closing in on a foot of new snow in Waterbury and Waitsfield. Morgan in the Northeast Kingdom reports 10 inches of new snow, and there are mulitple reports of 9 inches along the western slopes from South Lincoln to Jeffersonville and Fairfax and beyond. They'll get some more before this ends.

Cold air was delayed in coming in yesterday. It was still in the low 30s last evening across most of the North Country.

Now, normalitiy is back. The cold air is gushing in on gusty northwest winds. It's still not too bad out there this morning, with temperatures mostly in the 20s. But temperatures will fall this afternoon, and that bitter cold air we've been talking about will establish itself. Winds are already gusting past 30 mph in many locations. This will blow the snow around and add a lot of bite to the air for the rest of the day.

Wind chill advisories are up for late tonight and most of Friday morning for the Adirondacks and a good chunk of north central and northeastern Vermont, as those wind chills sink into 20s below zero.

High temperatures for many of us won't crack 10 degrees Friday and possibly Saturday. We have a couple nights at least of subzero readings ahead of us before temperatures moderate early next week.

As far as storms go, we're temporarily entering a very quiet period. One storm will scoot by far to our south Sunday and Monday and not have any effect on us.

Really the only thing I see coming through between now and about January 19 or so is another cold front during the middle of next week, which would throw a few snow showers our way, with light accumulations at best.