Rainy, Ugly Mess In Vermont, Northeast Today Will Turn To Frozen Ugly Mess Tonight

The trouble with these mid-winter rainstorms is it makes the
snow slide off the roof of our St. Albans, Vermont house, leaving
a nice, big pile of very heavy snow to get rid of by the front door. 

In case you haven't noticed, it's raining out there in Vermont today, and that's making things pretty miserable.

There's more misery ahead after today, too, in the form of a sharp freeze, some light snowfalls, and or more importantly, some harsh Arctic outbreaks.

We'll get to those in a moment, but first, today's water.  

FLOODED STREETS

In addition to the slippery ice underfoot, the rain and some melting snow is being trapped on roads in the form of huge puddles and street flooding across Vermont.  Snowbanks from last weekend's storm means the water has nowhere to go, so it sits on the roads.

This includes major highways, like Interstate 89. If you're speeding along and hit a big puddle or water ponding on the road, that's a recipe for a crash. So be careful.

The problem is even worse in urban areas. Be alert when you see a flooded road or street ahead of you. There's no telling how deep the water is. It's better just to turn around and try another way when you encounter flooding.

The rain and the melting snow are creating areas of dense fog, too. Which means you might not be able to see those deep puddles on the highways until you're right on top of them. It's probably a good idea to slow down out there.

This state of affairs should last most of the day.

The rain will be heavier in southern New England than in Vermont, so there's a greater chance of high water there. Flash flood watches are up for a wide area of southern New England, the New York metro area and parts of New Jersey.

By the way, this rain has some implications for the prospect of spring flooding in Vermont. You will have noticed that the snow is much, much less deep than it was yesterday. The rain has settled the snow quite a lotl

With the rain falling on compacted snow and cold ground, our
St. Albans, Vermont driveway is now a skating rink. 

But not much of it is actually melting. The rain is soaking into the snow, so that by the time we're done with this rain later today, the amount of water in the snow will have increased by quite a bit, as we're expecting at least a half inch of rain today. Most of that will become part of the snow pack.

This by no means whatsoever guarantees we will have or have worse than usual spring flooding. It just ups the chances of it a little.

What actually happens this spring depends on what the weather is like in February, March and at least the first part of April. If we keep getting snowfalls with not much thawing in February and early March, then an abrupt turn to warm, wet weather, that's a big problem.  Flooding would be likely.

If we don't get much snow for the rest of the winter, and/or the spring melting season is gradual, then there's not much to worry about.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington releases a hydrological outlook every other week during the winter and early spring predicting how much of a flood threat there is. The next outlook is due out today, but it was not available yet as of this writing.

By the way, I suspect the National Weather Service is having a harder time than usual getting measurements as to how much water is locked up in Vermont's snow pack. The government shutdown is probably interfering with data collection, making hydrologists' and meteorologists' jobs more difficult.

The last Vermont/New York hydrological outlook, issued January 10, said the threat of flooding was somewhat below normal, but that was before a series of snow and rain storms that hit the region over the past two weeks.

After today, no major thaws are likely for the next couple of weeks at least. We'll get more snow, as several systems seem poised to come through, but at this point, there's no indication of any enormous snowstorms.

TONIGHT'S FREEZE

The anticipated cold front today has been postponed a bit until later today, but it will go below freezing this evening amid some light snow. That water on the ground will freeze up, so it will be treacherous underfoot going forward over the next days and weeks.

With freezing conditions and some snow, road conditions probably won't be great this evening.

ARCTIC OUTBREAKS

The weather pattern over the next week or two will feature quick hitting outbreaks of Arctic cold with  brief periods of seasonably mild weather in between. It will be quite changeable around here.

Saturday looks bitter, with highs near 10 degrees, followed by a relatively mild Sunday, then a very cold Monday, followed by a milder Tuesday and on it goes.

Relatively weak weather systems will be swinging through during this time as well. Each of those will throw handfuls of winter snow down on us, but none of these little storms look like they will dump big amounts of snow on us.

There's already a lot of hype on weather geek social media about one of these Arctic outbreaks, set to come into the United States in about a week. This one at this point looks like it will be particularly harsh. 

What's good for us in Vermont is this Arctic outbreak will come across the Canadian border in the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, so they will get the worst sting from this. Temperatures across the Midwest could easily be the coldest in two or three years.

Despite the hype, this won't be the Worst Cold Wave Ever.  Some daily record lows will be set, but few reasonable forecasters are expecting historic cold. Dangerous, yes, but not the ultimate freeze out.

Early indications are by the time this cold wave hits Vermont, it will be worse than the one that hit a few days ago, but not as bad as the most intense cold waves we've ever had. We'll tease out the particulars of this bitter blast once it gets closer to the time when it is expected to hit.

Plus, this will be another Arctic shot that will last just a few days before temperatures moderate. There will be other Arctic blasts after that. But by then, we will be heading into February.

The worst Arctic cold waves tend to have a little less bite starting around the third week of February. So this won't last forever.