Monday, January 14, 2019

Cool Sunday Clouds, The Week Ahead, Winter Keeps Going, Storm Uncertainty Weekend

I hope you got outside to enjoy the weather in Vermont Sunday.

Sure it was pretty cold, with a subzero dawn and highs only reaching the low teens. But the sun was out, the winds were light, wind chills were non-existent and most areas had fresh powder on the ground.

What's not to love with that?

Many Vermont ski area operators were probably in a good mood. When the snow tapered off to pretty much nothing this past Wednesday and Thursday, it kept cranking on the western slopes and on the summits of the Green Mountains.

I was a little stunned by the final snow totals from last week in those areas. Jericho, Vermont clocked in with a total of 23 inches of fresh snow, Waterbury got 21 inches and Fletcher received 20 inches.

There was some pretty cool clouds over northern Vermont Sunday morning, especially as viewed from space and especially if you're a weather geek. Check out the GIF in this post, and thanks to WPTZ-TV meteorologist Eric Weglarz for noticing this and putting it on Twitter for all to see.

The main thing you see is a mass of low clouds oozing south from Canada Sunday morning. If you look closely, notice how they go around to the west and east of Greeen Mountains. That's because this cloud layer was so low and so thin, it couldn't get around the mountains.

Instead, these low clouds spread southward down the Champlain Valley and other lowlands. The clouds got to a certain point, then dissipated, leaving even northern Vermont with a mostly sunny afternoon.

Ahead of those clouds you can also see a plume of lake effect clouds, and probably lake effect snow showers, originating in the middle of Lake Champlain just about offshore of Colchester, then heading south to dust the southern end of the lake shoreline.

I wasn't in the Burlington area Sunday, but I'm told the lake, and the clouds were particularly pretty on Sunday.

Now it's the work week, and we have to deal with whatever the weather will bring us. In a nutshell, it'll be quiet to start, then get more interesting as the week goes on.

TODAY: After yet another subzero morning this morning, it'll warm up nicely into the upper teens far north to the low to mid 20s elsewhere. Not bad!

TUESDAY: Arguably pick of the week. We'll have a fair amount of clouds around in the morning, with maybe a few flurries here and there. There might be a little more sun  in the afternoon. Temperatures will get well into the 20s to perhaps near 30 in the warm spots. Light winds will make this a perfect day for outdoor winter sports.

WEDNESDAY: It could get a little interesting in the afternoon. An Arctic cold front will be approaching. Ahead of the front, temperatures might actually get above freezing in the warmer areas. As the front approaches, the relative warmth will help add a little instability to the air, and this will touch off some snow showers and possibly some snow squalls.

There won't be much accumulations - most of us will get an inch or less - but the snow squalls will briefly cut visibililty to next to nothing, and very quickly slicken up the roads in a few spots, so watch out for that.

The greatest chance of this happening is the northern half of Vermont. The snow squalls will probably be more intense, and thus more interesting, up in the Montreal metro area.

THURSDAY: Quiet and cold again, with highs staying in the low teens at best. It could get below zero again at night.

BEYOND THURSDAY:  It looks like the weather pattern will become more active after Thursday. The forecast also gets really uncertain.  Here's how it looks at this point but things are DEFINITELY subject to change.

A small storm will pass nearby Friday, throwing some light snow at us. If it does snow, it won't be that big a deal.
A schematic of a possible East Coast storm on Sunday.
This map is just a first guess, and forecasts will
certainly be revised. Count on the storm to not
look exactly like this if and when it does form. 

Sometime toward Sunday and Monday, it looks like there will be some sort of substantial storm somwhere along or near the East Coast.

There's already a lot of hype on social media and elsewhere about this from weather weenies who want to get a lot of clicks and follows.

As usual when there's a hint of a storm on the horizon, they're touting an enormous, paralyzing storm that will bring the eastern half of the nation to a standstill. Or something like that.

As usual, serious meteorologists and weather geeks are telling everybody to take a deep breath. I'm in this camp.

The storm certainly won't be The End Of The World.  Somebody, somewhere in the eastern United States will probably get a winter storm over the weekend and early next week. It could possibly be a fairly bad storm in a few spots.

The strength and track of this potential storm is really unknown at this point. It's possible it could bring Vermont a fair amount of snow or even mixed precipitation in six to seven days. It's also possible it won't be a big deal, or it could miss us entirely.

As the week goes on, the forecasts on this thing will start to get more precise, and we'll gradually get a better handle on how or if the maybe storm will affect us.

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